Northwestern is the 4th Best Team in The Big Ten…No, Really!

At this moment Northwestern is in 4^th place in the Big Ten. I know the Wildcats probably aren’t the fourth best team in the conference based on talent, but the reality is they’ve played 10 conference games (more than any other team to this point) and they’re sitting in fourth place against the league’s toughest schedule. In contrast Wisconsin below NU and has played the second easiest. The Wildcats run up the Big Ten standings started with a 49-43 win over Illinois in early January which started them on a 5-2 stretch which has evened their Big Ten record at 5-5 and placed them ahead of Wisconsin, Ohio State, Indiana, and Illinois in the standings just to name a few. It’s been a remarkable run led by first year Head Coach Chris Collins’s great coaching job and senior captain Drew Crawford becoming a true team leader starting in the ‘Cats win over Purdue and continuing with two remarkable efforts in road upsets at Wisconsin and Minnesota.

You can search through stats and strategy to better understand why the Wildcats have seemingly magically transformed. But I think the real explanation has a lot to do with a change in attitude which occurred after the loss to Iowa. A lot of the focus has justifiably been on the ‘Cats defensive change. The decision to pack the defense in the lane to keep opponents on the perimeter, close hard on three point shooters, and force their opponents to take poor shots has kept the Wildcats hang close with more powerful offenses. The Wildcats have also been assisted by their decision to slow down the game and not try to get into a run and gun game with more powerful Big Ten teams. Limiting possessions helps a team like Northwestern which might not shoot lights out but can play defense. It makes each possession critical and if the other team struggles shooting the ball the Wildcats can take advantage of that poor shooting and win with a couple clutch shots (more than likely from Tre Demps).

Still, as I noted above, the best change in the team has been in attitude. This was a team which looked beaten before the ball was tipped a month ago. Now, they seem confident they can compete with anyone anywhere. That attitude won’t always result in wins, but it’ll at least mean the team won’t get overly discouraged when they suffer the inevitable tough losses which are bound to occur. The event that I believe really made the new attitude work was the way Chris Collins handled Drew Crawford in the Purdue game. In the past Drew was a player who was either very good if he got hot early or kind of disappeared if things didn’t go well early. In the Purdue game things didn’t go well for Crawford early, but Collins didn’t let the team stop giving him the ball. Instead, he kept setting up plays to give Crawford shots. Even when Crawford kept missing and even when he admitted he was discouraged Collins kept calling his plays. Eventually, Crawford made the shot which put the ‘Cats up for good and made the defensive play to win the game. I really believe it was Collins showing confidence in his captain that helped the rest of the team start to have confidence as well. When Tre Demps declares Collins “has his back” more than any coach he’s ever been around it says a lot. This is a team that trusts each other and their coaching staff. I think that’s why not only have we seen more success from Crawford, but we’ve seen Demps, JerShon Cobb, Kale Abrahamson, Nikola Cerina, and Alex Olah step up as well. Will everything go perfect from now on? I doubt it but if the team continues to follow their game plan and trust each other I think the success which has occurred over the past seven games will continue to occur more often than not.  

Looking Ahead for Northwestern Basketball

The big story from Northwestern today is the effort to unionize from the football team led by Kain Colter. However, Northwestern will play two basketball games this week and following tough loss to Iowa on Saturday the Wildcats face even more tough competition this week as they battle Wisconsin and Minnesota.

The fact of the matter is until Northwestern starts to make more shots playing teams in the top half of the Big Ten will be very difficult. Playing great defense may keep games close, but when you play a team with more firepower that team eventually overpowers you. Part of the problem for Northwestern comes from players who are underachieving based on their career stats. Dave Sobolewski is shooting nearly 20% below his best career numbers in terms of three point percentage. Drew Crawford is 11% below his career high. Those are your two team captains and guys who two years ago could at least be relied on to hit a wide open three. I just want to be clear, I don’t really care if a guy misses a tough contested shot, but I can’t stand to see college basketball players who lay bricks when there isn’t a defender within five feet of them. That shouldn’t happen. JerShon Cobb is another poor shooter who right now is shooting just 30% from three point range, but to be fair that’s in line with his career numbers. I would just have hoped he might have improved with a year off to work on his game.

When NU faces a Wisconsin team that shoots 38% from three point range as a team it’ll be very hard for them to hang with the Badgers unless something remarkable happens. Even NU’s great defense will likely meet its match given NU’s limited depth. That’s what happened against Iowa. For 30 minutes NU at least hung with the Hawkeyes but playing only a seven man rotation the Wildcats couldn’t hang with the Hawkeyes 11 man rotation.

Minnesota is another deep and athletic team that will challenge Northwestern. It’ll be an interesting matchup, though, because Minnesota is not a good defensive team at all. There is a theory that good defense will beat good offense and that’ll be put to the test on Saturday as Northwestern has good defense but doesn’t have good offense. Of course, the issue of NU’s limited depth may play a role as well. I’d like to see NU try to get more minutes from Sobolewksi, Nate Taphorn, and James Montgomery III as they travel to Madison and Minneapolis. Taphorn offers more potential offense from behind the three point line than any other Wildcat and Montgomery would fit well into NU’s blue-collar defensive approach. As for Sobolewski, if he could play like he did as a freshman he’d offer NU another outside shooter and a guy who is by far the team’s best ball handler. Obviously these are tough games and the Big Ten is a tough league and using a little more depth might help NU hang with tough squads as the season continues. 

Why I’ve Bought into Chris Collins and #NUEra of NU Basketball

Usually accomplishing something nobody else has done is a pretty difficult task. That’s the reason why nobody has accomplished it. For Chris Collins to take over Northwestern’s basketball program and take the Wildcats to the NCAA Tournament seems a nearly impossible task, but somehow it seems somewhat less impossible than it did two weeks ago. Still, Northwestern has had decent seasons in basketball before most recently under Bill Carmody but also under Rich Falk, Ricky Byrdsong, and Kevin O’Neil. So the question becomes can Collins move Northwestern from the ceiling of a respectable season (which ends in the NIT) to a great season which ends in the NCAA Tournament? I’m starting to think the answer is yes.

I’ll admit I was uncertain when it became clear Chris Collins was the target of Northwestern AD Jim Phillips in his search for Bill Carmody’s replacement. Sure, I was aware of the fact Collins worked for Coach K at Duke and his father’s NBA career and his USA basketball credentials, but I worried because there hadn’t been a coach in nearly two decades hired to be a head coach in the Big Ten without previous college head coaching experience. Two decades! And Phillips was giving Collins the most difficult job in the conference. I mean sure someone with no head coaching experience might succeed at Michigan State, but Northwestern?!?!?! It seemed almost unfair to Collins no matter how much experience he had as an assistant or what coaching resources he could call upon. I was nervous.

I became less nervous when I watched the press conference in which Phillips introduced Collins. Sure, the job still seemed nearly impossible and I wondered if Chris Collins really knew the challenge he was getting himself into but I liked the way he approached the presser. You could tell he was genuinely excited for the job and that this was a moment he’d waited for since his first days as an assistant coach and maybe since he’d left college. Given that excitement it made me think he’d probably be able to connect that excited to some decent recruits and maybe we’d see a talent uptick at Northwestern in the long term. It certainly sounded like he would put together a good coaching staff to help him recruit and mold talent when he added former NU star Patrick Baldwin and his father’s former NBA assistant Brian James (and later local product Armon Gates). But no matter how good those guys were going to be at recruiting they still would be tested as coaches because they’d likely never land top-50 products at Northwestern. To their credit they’ve come close with top-70 product Vic Law, but it still looks like Northwestern will be a roster of mostly three-star recruits with an occasional four-star and several two-stars to fill out the lineup. That would be a fine lineup in the MAC but can it win in the Big Ten? Yeah, if the team is well coached.

In the end it was coaching (even when the Wildcats weren’t winning) that led me to believe Chris Collins and his staff will accomplish the impossible—though it might take a couple years (but I hope it happens in two months). When Northwestern struggled to a 7-6 non-conference record and then started the Big Ten 0-3 people pointed to those numbers and some less than stellar statistics and panic seemed to grip the Northwestern fan base. I think even Jim Phillips might have been stricken with panic as he watched DePaul finish off the ‘Cats in the games final seconds thinking that there was no way Bill Carmody would have lost that game.

As I watched the ‘Cats struggle, though, I noticed something was becoming very clear. The team was well-coached. Sure, the offensive PPP stat was brutal, but it was brutal because the players missed a ton of open shots. If Collins himself, or Baldwin, or Gates were shooting those shots they’d have probably been baskets, but Dave Sobolewski and his 17% three-point percentage was making his coach look pretty bad. That’s not to pick on Dave. Drew Crawford, JerShon Cobb, and a collection of other Wildcats have games where they miss open shots with great frequency but the fact of the matter is the shots were there and that was the result of good coaching. Something still seemed to missing (well, wins for one) but I was becoming convinced Collins was on to something with the way he was running the team.  

It took a pretty disastrous and embarrassing loss to Iowa to figure out what exactly was that missing link. The problem was defense. Sure, the Wildcats missed open shots a lot, but they got enough they could win if they could just start stopping their opponents at a greater frequency. So Collins, Baldwin, James, and Gates developed a new strategy. They told their team to be blue-collar. To play as hard as they could on defense and keep up that intensity for 40, 45, or 50 minutes. As it turned out the change worked brilliantly. The Wildcats defeated Illinois, the played close with Big Ten leaderMichigan State, they beat Indiana, and they beat Purdue in an amazing double-OT thriller. They’ll now get another chance at Iowa and Wisconsin and they might fail to win both of those contests, but with the intensity they’re playing with now I know NU won’t be out of the fight the way they were in that disastrous loss to the Hawkeyes a couple weeks back. 

The decision to change the team’s approach and get the players to buy in is a sign of good coaching. Not only in altering the game plan, but in getting the team to buy into that change. I have to think it was Collins’s personality which the players seem to love that made Jim Phillips decide to take a chance on a guy with no head coaching experience when many (myself included) didn’t think it was worth such a risk. Some will criticize and say the coaches should have realized NU needed a blue-collar approach sooner and maybe the reason for the delay in the change is Collins hadn’t had previous head coaching experience. At first he probably was coaching NU like Duke because that’s what he was used to seeing and coaching as an assistant these past 13 years. But the fact he changed and realized what he needed to do in order to win actually says more to me about his ability to coach than if he’d been winning from the start. Good coaches need to be able to put ego and stubbornness aside and admit they’re wrong and make adjust if things aren’t going well. I was a fan of Bill Carmody’s era at Northwestern, but I got the impression he wasn’t very willing to change. The Princeton Offense and the zone defense he ran remained the same for many years. Maybe that was part of the reason why NU often defeated talented non-conference opponents under Carmody but often leveled out during Big Ten playy facing opponents who saw the same game plan year after year.

Regardless, the fact that Collins changed and got his players to accept the change so easily gives me great confidence in the future of Northwestern basketball. This year’s team likely won’t be going to the NCAA Tournament (it might even be smart to focus on a CBI-bid instead of the NIT) but with the same level of hard working players and the willingness of coaches to adjust to put those players in the best position to win, I don’t think NCAA-bid is that far off. In fact, I think it’s probably even closer than we think.

Wildcats Have Momentum Heading into Game with Purdue

Early on this year, really up until a week ago I didn't think Northwestern would have any momentum this season. It just didn't seem like this team would be able to put together enough consecutive success to establish that positive feeling. That changed in the last week. Northwestern went 2-1 in the week, but the only loss was to a top-5 team in Michigan State. Northwestern best #23 Illinois and defending Big Ten champ Indiana in the games that surrounded the loss to MSU. Even in that loss the Cats played great defense and showed their new style of play which focuses on defense will allow them to compete with the conference's best teams. The Wildcats still don't score the ball real well, but fans had to be impressed with the returned assertiveness of Drew Crawford who got to the basketball for a bunch of inside points vs Indiana and the clutch shooting of Tre Demps who really closed the door on comeback hopes for both Illinois and Indiana in the final minutes.

Now Northwestern will face a Purdue team who comes into the game with similar positive momentum. The Boilermakers have defeated Illinois and Penn State in the last week and like NU have quieted some of their doubters with their solid play. AJ Hammons leads the Boilermakers from his center position. He's a legit big man and his matchup with NU's Alex Olah is one to watch for sure. Purdue also has a collection of guards who will try to drive and get to the hoop. Northwestern played amazing defense in preventing Indiana's Yogi Farrell from getting to the basket regularly. A similar defensive effort will got a long way to helping NU win the game. The other thing NU needs is offensive production. The Wildcats got double-figure points from both Demps and Crawford in the wins over Illinois and Indiana. That's necessary for NU to have a chance. Also watch Olah and Kale Abrahamson who have had solid scoring games of late. Finally, I've been very impressed with the way JerShon Cobb has taken over the point guard position from the injured Dave Sobolewski. He will be tested by Purdue's defense but if he passes the test it'll be huge for Northwestern's odds of winning.

Win Over Illinois is Big for NU

Northwestern’s win over Illinois gives them bragging rights which is nice, but perhaps more important it gives the team and its fans so hope for the future. I’ve got confidence in what Chris Collins is trying to do, but as I wrote about last weekend it seemed NU just couldn’t catch a break. NU still hasn’t had multiple players really shoot well at one time, but they did catch a break in terms of Illinois having a very off day shooting the ball. As a result the ‘Cats pulled out a hard fought 49-43 victory over the #23 team in the nation.

While Illinois did have an off day shooting you have to give some credit to Northwestern for that result. I honestly felt this was one of the most hard-working defensive efforts I’d seen from NU in a long time. I was particularly impressed with how NU’s perimeter players fought over the top of screens (something they struggled with earlier in the year) and how Alex Olah helped when needed. If NU gets similar efforts in the future they’ll continue to compete. They might need more offensive production than they got last night, though, Tre Demps run of three straight threes was about as clutch as you can get, it’ll take more than 49 points to win most Big Ten games. At least I think it will, but I’d fine if NU could hold down opponents and win 39-33. The end result is the team wants to get W’s and it doesn’t matter how those occur.

Aside from Demps and his clutch play, you have to respect the efforts of JerShon Cobb who stepped into the role of starting point guard and really seemed to ignite the NU offense from that spot. I like Cobb’s ability to score off the dribble and as he plays more and more I expect to see him generate even more offense. I’m still waiting for a huge game from Drew Crawford, but his 13 points did lead the team and he also tied for the team lead with eight rebounds. Crawford needs to make sure his feet are set when he shoots threes and not fade-away on some many shots, but at least he showed some signs of his old shooting touch on Sunday night. Hopefully he’ll completely regain that touch as NU takes on tough matchups with Michigan State and Indiana this week. 

The other area NU needs to improve in before this week's games is free throw shooting. At least Crawford made the clutch free throws at the end of the game, but overall the team did not shoot free throws well. Making free throws seems at times to be a skill which isn't nearly as common as it was in years past, but if you're a team that is an underdog in nearly every game you need to get any points you can free throws are by their name "free" points. I'll be looking and hoping the 'Cats are cashing in from the line in other close games this season. 

Northwestern Needs to Find Some Consistency

A lot of people say Northwestern doesn’t have good basketball players. Maybe that is true, but at various times Northwestern’s “bad” players have been pretty good. The problem is that they lack any sort of consistency in terms of when they play well. Even worse they don’t seem to play well at the same time. For example, Tre Demps scored 23 points in NU’s loss to DePaul. In that game he consistently hit three point shots. Today, he couldn’t hit multiple open three early in the game. Those threes were created because Drew Crawford was having a good half and he ended up scoring 13 first half points. If Demps has hit his open threes in the first half Northwestern could very well have established an early lead and changed the whole course of the game. It might even have created open looks for a third Wildcat player.

Alex Olah is another example of inconsistency. Olah posted a career high 22 points against Wisconsin a game after he scored zero (0) versus DePaul. If Olah had only scored half of what he scored versus Wisconsin versus DePaul NU would have won that game easily.

JerShon Cobb is another player who has had big games in the past, but who doesn’t seem to have his big games when other players play well. If Cobb could have posted a double-figure game versus Wisconsin to support Olah then perhaps NU could have hung around in that game but he did not play well.

Dave Sobolewski scored a career high 25 points against UIC early in this season. He hasn’t come close to that since. If Sobo could have exceeded 20 points in any number of games since then NU might have come away with a victory, but he hasn’t so NU has lost several games where they needed production from the point guard position.

I’m hesitant even to bring up Drew Crawford as we’ve discussed for years his inconsistent play. Crawford has never been a consistent player and that lack of consistency has been magnified this year as he’s supposed to be NU’s best offensive weapon, but has struggled to ever reach the 20-point mark. Part of that is because teams focus defense on him but part of it is that Crawford tends to disappear in the offense. Still, if Crawford could consistently get some support from his teammates he might be able to lead NU to some victories before the season ends. 

Back on Winning Track at Home

I don't really know what to say about this game. Northwestern clearly still hasn't found any sort of rhythm on offense but at least they found a way to play good defense. I liked the fact Coach Collins changed up the starting lineup and that seemed to ignite a fire in some of the Wildcats. At least Alex Olah responded to his benching with some intensity. He scored early and actually looked pretty good on the glass vs 6-11 opponent which really impressed me.

Dave Sobolewski still doesn't seem to have put things together. He was also pulled from the starting lineup, but actually played a lot. Unfortunately, not much of his play was particularly good. He still seems very uncomfortable in the new offense and simply can't seem to hit a three. I can't figure it out because he's clearly a guy who has worked on shooting his whole life, but the ball just doesn't go in when he shoots at this point.

I did like the play of JerShon Cobb at the point guard position. He's also a great free throw shooter and needs to be more aggressive going to the basket in an effort to draw fouls and get to the line. I'm still waiting for a truly big game from Drew Crawford. Probably not getting two early fouls every game would help with that. Maybe Collins shouldn't automatically sit Drew when he picks up a foul, though, I'd say Drew as a 5th year senior needs to be smarter defensively and pickup so many fouls.

Alex Olah Leads NU to Victory

I think the two most important spots on the court for Northwestern this year are center and point guard. The point guard spot remains somewhat unsettled as Dave Sobolewski county he's to try to find his way in the new offense, but I was pleased to see Alex Olah step up in a big way tonight. While Olah be consistent or will he be maddeningly inconsistent like Sobo who scored 25 vs UIC and hasn't approached that since? I have no idea but I'm currently very pleased with what I thought was Alex Olah's best game at Northwestern.

I think part of what made Olah so effective is that once he showed he could score on Gardner-Webb's post players his teammates kept feeding him the ball. This was huge on a night when three pointers weren't falling NU understand they has an advantage inside and they did all they could to exploit the favorable matchup. In the past I think sometimes NU has ignored their centers even when they had an advantage and just settled for threes.

I also liked the way NU seemed to just play with more aggression in the second half. The first half seemed kind of lazy and deliberate but in the second half it looked like NU was having more fun and really attacking the rim. That led to some nice dunks from Olah and Nate Taphorn and got JerShon Cobb really involved both scoring and passing.

As NU moves on to play two quality teams in Mizzou and UCLA it will be essential Cobb keep getting into the lane and making things happen. NU will also need Drew Crawford to play two good halves of basketball which doesn't seem to have happened since the Eastern Illinois game but I think we all know NU won't beat a top-20 team unless Drew posts around 25 points.

NU Survives IUPUI's Best Effort

I think one major takeaway I from tonight's game is that IUPUI gave a great effort at Welsh-Ryan Arena this evening. Drew Crawford said NU coach Chris Collins challenged his team at halftime because he felt IUPUI was out working the Wildcats and honestly they may have out worked them in the second half as well, but thankfully some creative defensive game planning by Collins and a late runner by JerShon Cobb kept NU in the game and gave the 'Cats an important W.

Drew Crawford led a balanced NU attack with 12 points all of which came in the second half. I'm not sure Crawford is yet aggressive enough in his role as NU's go-to scorer as he tends to disappear at times. He should never take less shots than guys like Dave Sobolewski and Sanjay Lumpkin. If I wanted to be positive I'd say he'll learn that soon but time is running out on him learning that. The only way NU upsets UCLA and Mizzou would be huge day from Crawford and those games are less than a week away.

Sanjay Lumpkin was once again really good on the glass and actually got some inside scoring help from Alex Olah. It's been stated by Collins that Olah is the key to NU's success and scary as that might be for fans to hear it is probably true. Everything works better for NU when Olah is a presence inside both on offense and defense. The other key to NU's success is Dave Sobolewski. He didn't make shots tonight like he did vs UIC on Wednesday but he ended up as NU's second leading scorer and sank some key free throws. If he can make 40% of his three point shots (which I know would be double what he did tonight) I think he and NU have a pretty good year. Is that realistic? I don't know but I'm going to pay close attention to Sobolewski on Monday.

Dear Chris Collins,

Welcome to being a head coach.

Sincerely,

Everyone Who's Been One

That pretty much sums up my thoughts on tonight. Northwestern's young head coach has to learn that once you're in charge the job is a lot harder than you ever though it would or could have been. Making matters even worse for Collins he's in a job in which really no coach has ever been successful. In fact, the most successful one got fired and replaced by him.

What we know for sure is that this game showed why NU ran the Princeton Offense and the 1-3-1 in years past. Virtually every ISU player was more athletic than anyone on the NU roster and they're a weak D1 team. The future success Chris Collins will (or could have) is dependent on upgrading NU's athletic skill. He's making strides in that area. Are those big enough strides? We won't know for a couple years.

The positive from this game is Northwestern never quit giving effort. The negative is it is hard to imagine even with effort that is team is going to be very successful. I'd put the over under on wins at 10.

NU Era starts with a W

So here we go again. Another season with high hopes for NU hoops. This time things are a little different as the so called "NU Era" has begun under new coach Chris Collins. I was a little nervous about a guy with no head coaching experience taking over a Big Ten job (and I guess to some extent I still am) but Collins seems very popular with players and other NU students and the team certainly played hard. Plus, the students showed up for a non conference game vs a directional school most couldn't even locate on a map. So outside of basketball a ton of good things happened today.

In regards to basketball some good things happened as well. Most importantly we saw the return of Drew Crawford. He led NU in scoring and rebounding with 25 points and 11 rebounds. That's a great night, but it's also the type of night Crawford is more than capable of putting up on any given night and NU will need such nights if they're going to win consistently this year.

Three other returnees made big impacts for NU as well. JerShon Cobb had at least eight assists and seemed to consistently find open shooters as he drove into the lane. That ability to get into the lane and pass out to a shooter will be a staple of the NU Era's offense so the fact Cobb is so adapt at it is huge. One of the guys Cobb passed to several times was Sanjay Lumpkin. He's not known as a shooter but he knocked down several shots today. Plus, it's hard to know all that much about a guy who sat out all but four game last season. Nikola Cerina also saw more time on the court tonight than it seemed like he did all of last year after an early season ankle injury. I think his size and physical play and think it'll be a huge factor vs power-conference teams.

Blog Status

A lot has happened with Northwestern basketball and this blog hasn’t really been updated so some might wonder what’s going on. Well, to be honest the spring just isn’t a time when I have much free time to post on this blog and the summer, well, the summer just isn’t a time I spend a lot of time thinking about basketball. Don’t worry, though, I haven’t totally forgotten about NU basketball. I certainly hope to be writing during next season, but I also know that since I started this blog a lot more regularly updated NU blog sites have been created so it’s not as if people are entirely dependent on my updates for NU hoops news. Regardless, if you want updates on my feelings about NU basketball I invite you to make sure you check in here when next season starts and until then you can get info on my thoughts about NU hoops (and many, many other things related and not) in 140 characters or less by following me on twitter @RLins12 and until next season I’ll simply say Go Cats!

Jim Phillips Has Hope That He’ll a Hero for NU Basketball

Northwestern basketball doesn’t have many heroes. Rich Falk, Shon Morris, Jitim Young, Juice Thompson, and John Shurna are on the list, but overall the years have produced far more villains in purple and white than heroes. Guys who abandoned the program for what they thought were better places like Rex Walters, Kevin Nixon, Geno Carlisle, Kevin O’Neil, and Kevin Coble come to mind as do the various administrators who didn’t make any effort to improve the foundation of NU hoops throughout the years. Now NU’s current athletic administrator has made a move that he believes will improve NU basketball, but it is a move that will either make him the biggest hero in NU history or land him at the top of that list of villains.




After all, Carmody was NU’s most successful coach since 1950. He was the only NU coach to coach in multiple postseason tournaments (though all NITs) and the only NU coach to win 20 games. And he had assembled NU’s best potential tournament team ever to play next season. That doesn’t seem like a guy who should be fired, but he also was well under .500 overall and in the Big Ten and only beat conference rival Ohio State once in 13 seasons. Also, he failed to make the NCAA tournament in his 13 seasons.

It also seemed that the momentum of the program was going backwards this season, though, having three starters hurt probably was a big reason for that. Carmody also won some of NU’s best games ever pulling off multiple road wins over top-25 teams that NU had never beaten before. Of course, he also did things like drop multiple home games to UIC and never got past the second day of the Big Ten Tournament.

Overall, though, Carmody was a lot better than anyone who NU had ever brought in before him and I keep going back to the hopes which existed for next year’s team. You might say who cares about hope, but Phillips specifically cited the word “hope” as a reason to change coaches. He said he hoped NU basketball had a better “destination” than where Carmody had taken it. That might sound stupid, but Gary Barnett sold early-1990s NU football on the phrase “belief without evidence” and that’s the definition of hope so maybe at NU hope is a valid criteria to make a change if Phillips really thought Carmody’s tenure was bereft of that quality.

I don’t think it was, but I’m not sitting in Phillips’ chair. Regardless, he’s not staked his reputation on the “hope” that his chosen replacement for Carmody can work Barnett-like magic. Honestly, I’d say a sit down with Barnett should be required of whoever takes the job. After all, they might not have a lot to work with in year one. NU’s potentially strong roster for next year now might be rather thin. While they very likely maybe false rumors the fact is rumors have circulated from sources close to Sina (his dad), Taphorn (his AAU coach), and Sobolewski (his AAU coach) that all may leave NU. The Chicago Tribune has also reported that Drew Crawford and/or JerShon Cobb may consider leaving NU now that Carmody has been fired. Basically, NU might look like Indiana did four years ago and be forced to field a team of mostly walk-ons and late signings. The problem is that NU’s new coach won’t have the Indiana basketball history to build the program. If that happens it’ll make many fans angry at Phillips and put the new coach in a spot where he has to take a step backwards to go forwards.


But the new coach will have the “hope” they’ll do something nobody else has ever done. It’ll be a tremendous challenge and let’s be honest the odds suggest he will probably fail. But if they don’t they’ll be a hero and Phillips himself will be a hero as well for finding a true coaching gem in Bill’s replacement. A man who could take the Purple to the Big Dance!


I “hope” that’s what happens. If it goes the way history has gone, though, and Phillips pulled the plug on NU’s best team a year early then he can join a guy like former All-Big Ten guard Geno Carlisle who pulled the plug on NU’s tournament hopes and his NU career a year early by not waiting to play alongside All-American Evan Eschmeyer as a villain of NU basketball.

Northwestern Playing With No Pressure in Big Ten Tourney

The past few years a lot of pressure was on Northwestern as they entered the Big Ten Tournament. Fans believed a win or two would result in them making the NCAA Tournament for the first time. Now most fans expect NU to lose their game on Thursday and take a short bus ride back to Evanston. Will that lack of pressure to win work in NU’s favor?



Last year NU was in a similar position to Iowa and failed to hold a late lead and dropped out of the NCAA Tournament hunt. Can NU do to Iowa what Minnesota did to the ‘Cats a year ago? The odds are against it. NU simply hasn’t had the firepower to play with anybody in the Big Ten since Jared Swopshire went down. The Hawkeyes inside presence led by Aaron White and Adam Woodbury have given NU trouble in the past and will be expected to give NU trouble again. Alex Olah will need to have one of his best games for NU to compete with Iowa. Olah is coming off a big game vs Michigan State so perhaps that’ll carry over. What he needs to do, however, is not just score points, but also make himself a factor on defense and on the glass which hasn’t always been the case.


NU’s best chance to beat Iowa is probably getting hot from beyond the three point line. The ‘Cats need Tre Demps, Kale Abrahamson, Dave Sobolewski, and Alex Marcotullio all to have good games. Each of those four have had good moments over the course of this season, but they haven’t all put it together for 40 minutes. Can it happen now? It almost seems like it has to happen at some point, but maybe not. Iowa will put pressure on NU’s backcourt and if Sobolewksi and Reggie Hearn don’t handle the ball well than it won’t matter how well NU shoots because they won’t get shots.


In the end the storyline for this game for Northwestern is probably more about the future of head coach Bill Carmody than that of the team itself. I don’t think winning or losing this game should have a baring on Carmody’s future, but part of me thinks it will. I just think that A.D. Jim Phillips wants to make a change and if Carmody hasn’t won in more than a month he’ll be able to do so without being questioned. However, if Carmody pulls off a nice win and the top-rated recruit for NU in the last 20 years has his father going on record saying he won’t come to NU unless Carmody stays it’ll put Phillips in a very tough spot. Honestly, I’d love it if ESPN2 put a split screen on Jim Phillips during the game just to see how he reacts to how NU plays.


Prediction: In the end I think Iowa’s too much for NU but the game is closer than some might expect. The Hawkeyes will win by eight and Jim Phillips will fire Bill Carmody and replace him with Chris Collins. I won’t agree that Phillips made the right move but many in NU circles will and it’ll be interesting to see how Collins (and those that are so in love with him) handles a team that doesn’t have Drew Crawford, JerShon Cobb, Tre or Jaren Sina because I would bet that all or at least the majority of those guys won’t be back if Carmody isn’t back. I also wouldn’t count on Princeton-style players like Nate Taphorn or Kale Abrahamson sticking around NU without Carmody.

Regular Season Ends at Michigan State Sunday

With the loss to Penn State on Thursday NU will be the sure #11-seed in the Big Ten Tournament. Before that they travel to play at Michigan State on Sunday. The team enters the game amongst increasing speculation on the future of their head coach and coming off a disappointing and emotional loss on Thursday night.

This season has totally crashed and burned since Jared Swopshire went out with an injury at Iowa. At the time NU was 4-6 in the Big Ten and was within four points of the Hawkeyes in their home court. Swopshire was clearly NU’s best all around player and probably deserves the team’s MVP award despite only playing two-thirds of the season considering what happened once he was gone.

So the Wildcats have trudged along without Swopshire and their season has suffered. Dave Sobolewski was clearly devastated after fouling out on Thursday and he’s perhaps struggled the most without Swop. It seems like for Sobo to take on the secondary scorer role was just too much to ask and as a result he’s gone from a guy who can have a very nice game as a third or fourth scorer (who is defended by the third or fourth best defender) to a guy who can barely dribble (let alone score) when he’s defender by one of the other team’s top defenders. Reggie Hearn seems to have suffered too, though, not as much, with having to be the focus of the other team’s scouting report without Swop to help take the pressure off of him inside.

All these issues have resulted in losses piling up and people piling on Bill Carmody. Right or wrong most speculation has him out of Evanston at the end of the season. I honestly converted from someone who was luke-warn on Carmody to someone who thought he did a good job at NU and despite this season I tend to remain in Carmody’s camp. This team suffered so many injuries I can’t believe any coach could have won with them about Swopshire’s injury became the final straw to break the camel’s back. Plus, when we look to the future Carmody is the one who assembled a team for next season that fits his style of play. How does NU win in another style without a collection of great one-on-one athletes? I don’t think they do. So is it really worth firing Carmody and suffering another season like this one? I don’t think so. Tough as last year’s closes losses were I’d trade last season for this one in an instant

Senior Night for the Class of 2013

Northwestern’s senior of 2013 has seen some of the best basketball in the history of NU, but unfortunately they recently suffered through a stretch of one of the worst. As a result they’ll become yet another class to leave Northwestern without that first elusive NCAA bid (unless they have a miracle run in the Big Ten Tournament). Nonetheless, this is a class that I know I’ll positively remember as a fan and I certainly hope others will as well.


The star of the group and the best story is Reggie Hearn. The one time walk-on that became a two-year starter and the leading scorer on the team this season. Hearn was at times NU’s best player even when guys like Drew Crawford where on the court with him. He’s always played defense with great intensity and became adept at finding ways to score off the dribble as well as being a decent enough three point threat to help NU win games. I’ll always remember Hearn dominating in Champaign vs Illinois for two years in a row and I hope young players look at Reggie’s toughness and work-ethic as an inspiration when things don’t go their way.


Alex Marcotullio had the potential to be a prolific shooter for the Wildcats, but his health didn’t hold up over much of his career. I’ll never forget him coming in as a freshman and hitting clutch shots to help NU beat Iowa State and N.C. State. I also won’t forget that he was in many ways NU’s best all-around player during their run deep into the NIT in 2011. NU’s media experts kept showing his clutch shot vs Ohio State from last season (despite the fact NU didn’t win the game) but maybe that shot was emblematic of Marcotullio’s career. He was close to becoming more than what he was, but at least he’s leaving as someone fans will remember positively.


Finally, Jared Swopshire only played about two-thirds of a season for NU. The 5th-year transfer from Louisville seemed to finally get comfortable as a lead player versus someone with a supporting role, but his injury at Iowa prevented him from reaching his full potential. Still, his influence around NU was significant as he brought a winning attitude from a Final Four program to NU and hopefully showed the young Wildcats what it takes to reach that level. If NU makes the NCAAs next season I have no doubt that Swopshire’s influence on guys like Tre Demps and Alex Olah will have played a big role.

I wish these senior could have accomplished more than they did, but instead they’ll leave that challenge to Drew Crawford who was once planning to graduate with them until an injury derailed this season for him. Now, Drew’s class of 2014 will take on the challenge of making NU’s history into history.

Unless the class of 2013 decides to do it in the Big Ten Tournament next week.

'Cats Need to Have Some Fun vs OSU

The Pope is resigning for the first time in almost 600 years on Thursday and it seems about that long since Northwestern last beat Ohio State, but they’ve been amazingly close over the last few years. The last three games in Evanston (which actually do include NU’s 2009 win) have been decided in the final four seconds. Does that mean this game will be that close? I kind of doubt it, but I remain ever hopeful. Perhaps February 28, 2013 will be an historic day for several reasons. Some think the resignation of the Pope is a herald of the apocalypse, but I think a more accurate herald of the end of the world might be NU winning this game. So let’s go Catpocalypse!

NU, which has lost their last three games by 20-plus points and not scored more than 43 points in that stretch, will face an Ohio State team which features the Big Ten’s best scorer in DeShuan Thomas. The Buckeyes will also bring the Big Ten’s best defensive guard to Evanston in Aaron Craft. That means an NU team that can’t score will have to find a way to outscore Thomas and to score against Craft. The odds of both happening aren’t good.

The Buckeyes also will likely control the glass with the athletic skill of Chicago-product Sam Thompson and Zion-Benton native Lenzell Smith, Jr. Both players are very athletic and will be a major challenge for NU to defend both one-on-one but also when the ball goes off the rim for a rebound opportunity.

What can Northwestern do? Play fearless. It doesn’t matter what happens at this point if you’re Northwestern. The odds are you’re going nowhere as a team and your coach is probably going to be fired as long as the athletic director gets some indication from his chosen candidates that they’ve got some interest in the job. Of course, they may not and I don’t blame them. Besides, I think Bill Carmody probably deserves another year even if Jim Phillips (and many fans) don’t want to see it happen. Regardless, NU needs to play like it doesn’t matter what they do. Not an easy task for an athlete, but NU’s effort recently has been that of a team which is too scared and timid to be competitive. They look worried. Probably that they’ll cost the coach his job. At this point they’ve probably already done that so they might as well just play loose and aggressive and have some fun. Something that it seems clear NU hasn’t had for a very long time. It hasn’t been that long, but it seems about 600 years.

Prediction: I'd like to say I see Catpocalypse 2013 in our future, but I think OSU wins this game by 20-plus points 75-52.

Northwestern at Purdue: Does Anyone Care?

When Northwestern last played Purdue the Wildcats moved to 4-6 in the Big Ten with a couple winnable games on the horizon and still possessed an outside shot at the NCAA Tournament. Now the ‘Cats travel to Purdue devoid of any NCAA hopes (save a run in the Big Ten Tournament) and coming off of four straight losses the last two of which were about the worst basketball NU could play. Purdue hasn’t been much better of late and as a result this becomes a game which is not of any great interest to fans. Honestly, I’m at a loss about what to think in regards to NU basketball. Last year was an emotional roller coaster with huge highs and lows, but at least the overall ride was enjoyable once you got to the end. Since that victory over Purdue this year has pretty much just been a downhill ride and one which (based on the attendance at Welsh-Ryan Arena) many fans have simply chosen to get off.



Because Purdue hasn’t been good of late either I kind of find myself optimistic about this game, but only kind of as the Illinois game last Sunday essentially destroyed my optimism for NU at this point. It’s just hard to watch or expect much from a team that has essentially stopped scoring. Nobody on the Wildcats has been able to hit a shot as of late and as a result they’ve really struggled. It also seems like the team tends to give up if shots don’t go in early which is why the scores of late have been so one sided.



Purdue hasn’t been much of a scoring threat lately either, but they do have center A.J. Hammons who can control the paint. NU gave up way too many offensive rebounds to Wisconsin on Wednesday and unless the ‘Cats can contain Hammons you can probably expect a similar result on Sunday. Alex Olah needs to get back in the starting lineup and I’d like to see Nikola Cerina get some meaningful PT as well. In the end, though, the ‘Cats will need offense from guys like Dave Sobolewski, Tre Demps, and Alex Marcotullio if they want to get a victory and end the losing streak. I don’t think it’ll happen.



Prediction: Purdue scores just enough to beat Northwestern. Purdue, 56 Northwestern, 46

What Now?

I don’t know. I’m really at a loss as to what to say about Northwestern basketball at this point. The team has lost their last two games in spectacularly bad fashion. Even worse it’s hard to imagine them competing against any team left on their schedule based on how they played in those two games. Even Penn State looks stronger than Northwestern at this point. The quick reaction people turn to is to fire the coach, but I think that window closed. I advocated firing Carmody in the past, but really I don’t think it’s fair to do so now and I think he’s earned the right to stay. After all even with the last two games he’s got NU at 13-14 overall. While not great that record is probably an accomplishment considering the team he has on the court.


I can’t figure out an answer as to what to do in order to get the team to win games. I don’t think its coaching at this point. The team that has played the last two games looked hopeless, but I find it hard to believe the coach told them to play that way. I guess we can blame the coach for not motivating his team, but if you’re a college athlete you should have some level of self-motivation. You couldn’t have reached that level without it. So while I guess you have to fault the coach a little bit, I think the players have to look in the mirror to truly see the source of the problem.

I also maintain the silence from NU’s administration when it comes to basketball doesn’t help, but that doesn’t seem like it’s going to change at any point in the near future. It’s frustrating and it is starting to take a toll on the fans. I have to be honest while I’ll still watch every game I’m running out of ideas of what to type here without repeating myself. I also wonder if anyone outside a few diehards really care about NU basketball. My guess is they don’t.

Why can’t Jim Phillips firmly endorse the most successful coach in Northwestern history?

Last night I saw a team that looked like they didn’t have anything to play for. I think it is tied back to the fact that it’s looking more and more like AD Jim Phillips wants to fire Bill Carmody. An article ran in the Chicago Tribune before yesterday’s game which addressed the status of Bill Carmody’s career at Northwestern. When asked about Carmody’s future Phillips basically gave a non-answer. There is no way that didn’t impact a team that is pretty emotionally fragile right now as they continue to lose players and games.



Personally, despite last night’s horrible effort by his team I think Bill Carmody should return as NU’s basketball coach next season. That said I’m not one of the people that believes he’s the only coach in the world who could be successful at NU. I’m sure other coaches exist who could succeed. I just don’t think this is the time for them to take over. I do, however, acknowledge that I could be wrong on that and, more importantly, that it isn’t my decision to make. That decision is up to Northwestern A.D. Jim Phillips and as a result I have a request for Dr. Jim. Simply put:


Either fire Bill Carmody before Wednesday's game or give him a 100% endorsement to continue as NU’s coach for the foreseeable future.


You have to ask: Why can’t Phillips firmly endorse the most successful coach in Northwestern history? We’re now 26 games into a 31 game season and 13 years into Carmody’s
Northwestern tenure. A tenure in which he’s won more postseason games than any other NU coach
and in which he’s won more games than any NU coach since 1950. Again, why can’t Phillips answer
the question directly? The only possible reason I can think of is that he doesn’t want to strongly endorse Carmody because he intends to fire him. I really can’t figure out how any data obtained in the last five games of this season would make any difference whatsoever. The last five games from this team will most likely be bad. With all the injuries that have piled on over the course of this season it’s pretty clear to me Northwestern won’t be able to compete with the teams left on their schedule. The ‘Cats might sneak out a win vs a weak Penn State team or a collapsing Purdue team, but I seriously doubt they beat Wisconsin, Ohio State, or Michigan State.


So what’s Phillips doing? Sitting around secretly hoping NU loses all five so firing Carmody looks better? It’ll still look bad considering he was forced to play a good portion of the season without four of his top eight players. It’ll still look bad because the school invested $225 million into football but hasn’t ungraded the basketball arena in the last 30 years. It’ll still look bad because the admissions
office denied a 4.0 GPA student/point guard because of poor test scores and has forced Carmody to go exclusively with an increasingly bad Dave Sobolewski.

Yes, firing Bill Carmody will look bad for Dr. Jim, but it won’t look any better to wait till this season ends. In fact, it might look even worse. What happens if Carmody pulls off a miracle and upsets Ohio State or gets revenge on Illinois during the first round of the Big Ten Tournament? Then does Phillips keep him? Even if he doesn’t want to?

Look, I may be wrong, but I that the evidence suggests that Phillips wants to fire Carmody. Again, he’s got a enough data collected (again 26 games, 13 years) that no reason exists why he shouldn’t have been able to tell the Tribune on Sunday, “100% Bill Carmody will be back at NU next season and I’m confident he’ll be coaching NU’s first NCAA Tournament game just over a year from now.” No reason exists why he shouldn’t have said that unless he can’t say that because he doesn’t believe
it and if doesn’t I don’t see any reason to subject us to the Bill Carmody death march. Simply let him go on his way to pursue a broadcasting career or retirement and let the players have the opportunity to addition for the new coach by playing for an interim coach who will do his best to try and make sure he gets to keep the job even if that’s highly unlikely.