Here we are on March 7th and Northwestern is on the precipice of the NCAA Tournament. I’ll admit I had my doubts about this team and coaching staff, but they’ve overcome so much that you can’t help but admire what they’ve accomplished. This has been one of the most impressive displays of perseverance I’ve seen and I’ve heard that perseverance is the main ingredient to make fantasy into reality. I think most assumed that if Northwestern were ever to make the NCAA Tournament it would be with some type of magical nearly perfect season where everything went right. Instead, it seems nearly everything has gone wrong at times this year and the ‘Cats are still on the verge of the Big Dance. I break down the odds this way:
Loss to Minnesota…10% chance of making the Dance
Win vs Minnesota…60% chance of the making the Dance
Win vs Minnesota and Michigan…We’re In!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Now how likely is that third outcome? Well, it’s probably something of a 50/50 proposition. I think Northwestern will beat Michigan if they get a third chance at the Maize and Blue. My biggest fear is a let down in the Minnesota game. It just seems like one of those games where the Gophers could out-athlete NU and steal a victory. The good news is that the Gophers might not have 6-11 center Ralph Sampson III due to a knee injury and if he can’t go that takes at least one big guy off the court. The other major advantage NU has is that fact that Minnesota isn’t a great three point shooting team. Julian Welch is pretty good, but to me he looks like he’s got kind of a low/slow release if NU can get out on him maybe they force him to alter his shot or put the ball on the floor and try to shoot off the dribble. Other than Welch, the Gopher shooters aren’t scary. What is scary is their athletic skill. Everyone talks about Rodney Williams because he gets highlight film dunks, but Austin and Andre Hollins are good athletes as well. They’ll be very tough guards for NU in man-to-man which is why I’m hoping to see the ‘Cats not worry too much about just springing the 1-3-1 on the Gophers. Without great shooters and great ball handlers the Gophers are just the type of team that zone was created to beat (as long as Rodney Williams doesn’t come flying in from nowhere and grab every rebound).
On offense for NU look for the Wildcats to attack the Gophers with hopefully the same balance they’ve shown recently. John Shurna is the leader, but I’d love to see another big game from Drew Crawford and continued solid efforts by JerShon Cobb, Alex Marcotullio, and Reggie Hearn. Also, if Davide Curletti rebounds like he did vs Iowa then he’ll be great help vs the athletic Gophers.
For years I’ve joked that Northwestern basketball has been paying off karma at a vastly accelerated and/or inflated rate, but I’d like to think it’s finally been paid off. The ‘Cats enter the Big Ten Tournament as ready to go as they’ve been all season missing only Luka Mirkovic from the regular rotation. That’s big and those returning players might be just what NU needs to push them over the top. I predict: Northwestern, 65 Minnesota, 60
Showing posts with label Luka Mirkovic. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Luka Mirkovic. Show all posts
Wednesday, March 7, 2012
Tuesday, February 28, 2012
Senior Night With A Lot To Play For
Northwestern’s roster features four seniors: Nick Fruendt, Davide Curletti, Luka Mirkovic and John Shurna. These four players are the winningest group in the history of Northwestern Men’s Basketball and will finish their careers having played in the post season every year and having never had a losing season. That’s remarkable in the history of Northwestern basketball and while Shurna is clearly the star in the group, the other three seniors deserve credit as well as each had huge games in their career.
Fruendt in the Big Ten Tournament last year vs Minnesota.
Curletti this year against Michigan State.
Luka with a double-double as a sophomore vs #6 Purdue.
There are players in the country who play all four years and don’t have those moments and when these seniors are honored on Wednesday night, I hope our fans can remember those moments and the many more positive moments this class had brought to NU hoops and cheer loudly.
I also hope more great moments arrive during the game.
In NU basketball history more often than not senior night has rolled around without a lot on the line. The notable NIT-clincher against Michigan in 1994 might have been the last time the ‘Cats seniors played their final home game with something to play for besides pride.
On Wednesday night everything is on the line for Northwestern. I’ll admit to being a doubter, but the NCAA Tournament is still out there for the taking. For Ohio State, the odds are against them, but a Big Ten Championship is out there for the taking. Is that enough motivation for these two teams? I’d think so.
If not? Well, there is always still pride. Northwestern hasn’t owned home court as well as they should have with four seniors. Ohio State hasn’t dominated the Big Ten they way they should have with a trio of stars in William Buford, Jared Sullinger, and Aaron Craft. Not to mention a supporting cast of Buckeyes with talent to spare. Can the ‘Cats make a final home statement that won’t be forgotten anytime soon? Can the Buckeyes make a statement that warns Michigan State they better be ready or the Big Ten Title they thought was theirs alone with slip from the their grasp? We’ll see starting at 7:30CT.
I’m looking for Ohio State to attempt to attack NU’s zone as they did earlier this year and for NU to move the game at a more consistent pace as opposed to some of the rushed shots they took in the first meeting between these teams. Nearly everything is on the line for both squads. With that in mind, I have to take the team that’s won everything before. I predict: Ohio State, 67 Northwester, 56
Fruendt in the Big Ten Tournament last year vs Minnesota.
Curletti this year against Michigan State.
Luka with a double-double as a sophomore vs #6 Purdue.
There are players in the country who play all four years and don’t have those moments and when these seniors are honored on Wednesday night, I hope our fans can remember those moments and the many more positive moments this class had brought to NU hoops and cheer loudly.
I also hope more great moments arrive during the game.
In NU basketball history more often than not senior night has rolled around without a lot on the line. The notable NIT-clincher against Michigan in 1994 might have been the last time the ‘Cats seniors played their final home game with something to play for besides pride.
On Wednesday night everything is on the line for Northwestern. I’ll admit to being a doubter, but the NCAA Tournament is still out there for the taking. For Ohio State, the odds are against them, but a Big Ten Championship is out there for the taking. Is that enough motivation for these two teams? I’d think so.
If not? Well, there is always still pride. Northwestern hasn’t owned home court as well as they should have with four seniors. Ohio State hasn’t dominated the Big Ten they way they should have with a trio of stars in William Buford, Jared Sullinger, and Aaron Craft. Not to mention a supporting cast of Buckeyes with talent to spare. Can the ‘Cats make a final home statement that won’t be forgotten anytime soon? Can the Buckeyes make a statement that warns Michigan State they better be ready or the Big Ten Title they thought was theirs alone with slip from the their grasp? We’ll see starting at 7:30CT.
I’m looking for Ohio State to attempt to attack NU’s zone as they did earlier this year and for NU to move the game at a more consistent pace as opposed to some of the rushed shots they took in the first meeting between these teams. Nearly everything is on the line for both squads. With that in mind, I have to take the team that’s won everything before. I predict: Ohio State, 67 Northwester, 56
Wednesday, February 8, 2012
Where Are We? What Does It Mean? Are the Questions to ask as Northwestern Plays Host to Iowa.
I said before the Purdue game that I thought I’d be better able to evaluate Northwestern after their next three games. The Wildcats went 2-1 in those games and could have gone 3-0. They actually outrebounded teams and played with as great a sense of urgency as a Bill Carmody team ever has. What does that all mean? It means that somehow Northwestern now stands at 4-6 in the Big Ten. That’s not great, but it also means that the ‘Cats have a very good chance at winning at least four, if not five, more games before the end of the season as long as they continue to play with the same focus and intensity they have brought to their last three games.
Northwestern still has some issues related to defense and depth has been a problem, but they’ve gotten better efforts from their supporting cast, especially guard Dave Sobolewski in the scoring column, these past two games and that has been enough to push NU into position to earn another shot at playing their way into the NCAA Tournament. And that’s what it really comes down to at this point. The ‘Cats have eight regular season games left. No doubt if the season ended today the ‘Cats wouldn’t make the Big Dance, but unlike past seasons where it seemed NU was just prepping for a late season collapse, this year’s team seems to be positioning themselves at a spot where a good stretch run could play themselves into the history books. The first step is to beat an Iowa team that NU seems to matchup with favorably.
Iowa’s 5-6 Big Ten record is obviously similar to Northwestern, but Iowa seems to be a far less consistent team than Northwestern. As depressing as most of NU’s losses have been, they’ve really only been out of three games all season. Iowa has had some great wins, but they also have days where they simply don’t play defense. While defense isn’t a strong point for Northwestern either, offense is a strong point for the Wildcats and if Iowa doesn’t step it up on defense it’ll be a big day for John Shurna, Drew Crawford, Sobolewksi, and Reggie Hearn. Also, Iowa doesn’t start a player over 6-8 so if Luka Mirkovic can return from his injury this and the Sunday game at Purdue (who also doesn’t have a starter over 6-8) could be two games in which Luka could make his presence known on offense and really regain his confidence.
Iowa’s offense starts with Matt Gatens who is an excellent shooter and someone NU can’t afford to let get his feet set against the zone. The Hawks also have guard Roy Devyn Marble who has shown the ability to score in a number of ways. If NU goes man-to-man look for Marble and Bryce Cartwright to try to force Sobolewski guard them on drives to the hoop. Inside Iowa freshman Aaron White has hit the glass well during Big Ten season, NU can’t allow the freshman to give Iowa second chances. Hopefully, that’s where NU’s size advantage plays a role.
I’m counting on NU’s offense in this game. I think Iowa will score some points, but from watching the Hawkeyes this season, I don’t think they’ll stop Northwestern. I predict: Northwestern, 88 Iowa, 74
Northwestern still has some issues related to defense and depth has been a problem, but they’ve gotten better efforts from their supporting cast, especially guard Dave Sobolewski in the scoring column, these past two games and that has been enough to push NU into position to earn another shot at playing their way into the NCAA Tournament. And that’s what it really comes down to at this point. The ‘Cats have eight regular season games left. No doubt if the season ended today the ‘Cats wouldn’t make the Big Dance, but unlike past seasons where it seemed NU was just prepping for a late season collapse, this year’s team seems to be positioning themselves at a spot where a good stretch run could play themselves into the history books. The first step is to beat an Iowa team that NU seems to matchup with favorably.
Iowa’s 5-6 Big Ten record is obviously similar to Northwestern, but Iowa seems to be a far less consistent team than Northwestern. As depressing as most of NU’s losses have been, they’ve really only been out of three games all season. Iowa has had some great wins, but they also have days where they simply don’t play defense. While defense isn’t a strong point for Northwestern either, offense is a strong point for the Wildcats and if Iowa doesn’t step it up on defense it’ll be a big day for John Shurna, Drew Crawford, Sobolewksi, and Reggie Hearn. Also, Iowa doesn’t start a player over 6-8 so if Luka Mirkovic can return from his injury this and the Sunday game at Purdue (who also doesn’t have a starter over 6-8) could be two games in which Luka could make his presence known on offense and really regain his confidence.
Iowa’s offense starts with Matt Gatens who is an excellent shooter and someone NU can’t afford to let get his feet set against the zone. The Hawks also have guard Roy Devyn Marble who has shown the ability to score in a number of ways. If NU goes man-to-man look for Marble and Bryce Cartwright to try to force Sobolewski guard them on drives to the hoop. Inside Iowa freshman Aaron White has hit the glass well during Big Ten season, NU can’t allow the freshman to give Iowa second chances. Hopefully, that’s where NU’s size advantage plays a role.
I’m counting on NU’s offense in this game. I think Iowa will score some points, but from watching the Hawkeyes this season, I don’t think they’ll stop Northwestern. I predict: Northwestern, 88 Iowa, 74
Sunday, February 5, 2012
Finally! A Worthwhile Road Win!
After seemingly eons (or at least three years) of waiting for Northwestern get a road win over an opponent who was respectable, Northwestern pulled out a very solid 74-70 win over Illinois on Sunday. For the record, I want to note that if you check my prediction while I thought it would be a lower scoring game, despite my feelings about how disappointing NU has been this season, I did predict that the Wildcats would win this contest. Now as to the team itself, this was a great win for NU and it was critical that NU got solid production from all six players who played meaningful minutes. It wasn’t always in points as David Curletti got one point and Alex Marcotullio got two, but those guys impacted the game on defense and with rebounding while John Shurna, Reggie Hearn, Dave Sobolewski, and Drew Crawford combined to score enough points to push the ‘Cats to victory.
I think Illinois did NU something of a favor in not subbing all that much and thus not gaining any significant advantage due to NU’s lack of depth and by not giving the ball to Myers Leonard every time down the court. However, NU took advantage of that much more than they might of in the past and ran the offense with total perfection in the second half which resulted in many easy looks for John Shurna who finished 11-of-15 from field and moved into second place on NU’s all-time scoring chart. It also caused NU to avoid any prolonged scoring drought which stretched for 5-10 minutes as we saw the first time these teams played.
The well run offense also led to some chances for Dave Sobolewski to get to the basket and aside from missing a couple free throws I actually thought this was his most assertive offensive game since NU’s big win over Michigan State (I’d note that him being so assertive and NU winning big games probably isn’t a coincidence). He not only drove the lane late in the shot clock but in fact tried to make things happen by attacking the goal at many times in many ways. As a result, Reggie Hearn benefited with some open threes which he knocked down in the first half and with some very nice backdoor layups as well. I also thought that Drew Crawford played a pretty good overall game. He didn’t seem to force as many shots and he led NU with four assists in the game.
In the end, though, I think this game was won on defense. Yes, Illinois might have won if they’d given Leonard more shots, but the ‘Cats coaching staff did nice job calling switching defenses which at times seemed to confuse Illinois. I also thought that for the most part NU at least made it difficult for Illinois to get the pass they wanted. Yes, sometimes they got that pass, but it wasn’t easy and they were forced to really work. That paid off once NU made them work equally hard on defense and is part of the reason for the late backdoors. Those backdoors and Shurna’s attacking the glass also led to NU scoring more points in the paint despite Leonard’s dominate performance. That’s huge and it shows that Northwestern can be more than a three point shooting team. That’s a good lesson for NU long term and while this game isn’t the type of win that makes NU as nationally relevant as the Michigan State win, it is a game that will keep NU fans interested and hopefully help fill Welsh-Ryan Arena on Thursday when Iowa comes to town.
I think Illinois did NU something of a favor in not subbing all that much and thus not gaining any significant advantage due to NU’s lack of depth and by not giving the ball to Myers Leonard every time down the court. However, NU took advantage of that much more than they might of in the past and ran the offense with total perfection in the second half which resulted in many easy looks for John Shurna who finished 11-of-15 from field and moved into second place on NU’s all-time scoring chart. It also caused NU to avoid any prolonged scoring drought which stretched for 5-10 minutes as we saw the first time these teams played.
The well run offense also led to some chances for Dave Sobolewski to get to the basket and aside from missing a couple free throws I actually thought this was his most assertive offensive game since NU’s big win over Michigan State (I’d note that him being so assertive and NU winning big games probably isn’t a coincidence). He not only drove the lane late in the shot clock but in fact tried to make things happen by attacking the goal at many times in many ways. As a result, Reggie Hearn benefited with some open threes which he knocked down in the first half and with some very nice backdoor layups as well. I also thought that Drew Crawford played a pretty good overall game. He didn’t seem to force as many shots and he led NU with four assists in the game.
In the end, though, I think this game was won on defense. Yes, Illinois might have won if they’d given Leonard more shots, but the ‘Cats coaching staff did nice job calling switching defenses which at times seemed to confuse Illinois. I also thought that for the most part NU at least made it difficult for Illinois to get the pass they wanted. Yes, sometimes they got that pass, but it wasn’t easy and they were forced to really work. That paid off once NU made them work equally hard on defense and is part of the reason for the late backdoors. Those backdoors and Shurna’s attacking the glass also led to NU scoring more points in the paint despite Leonard’s dominate performance. That’s huge and it shows that Northwestern can be more than a three point shooting team. That’s a good lesson for NU long term and while this game isn’t the type of win that makes NU as nationally relevant as the Michigan State win, it is a game that will keep NU fans interested and hopefully help fill Welsh-Ryan Arena on Thursday when Iowa comes to town.
Saturday, February 4, 2012
In-State Rivalry Gives NU Another Chance to Win on the Road
Northwestern is looking for their first win at Illinois since 1999 on Sunday and despite the fact that NU is only 3-6 in the Big Ten, they’ve got a chance. Yes, NU is still suffering with injuries to JerShon Cobb, Luka Mirkovic, and Nick Fruendt, but Illinois is still a team that NU matches up decently well with. The biggest problem for NU is Illinois center Myers Leonard, especially if 6-11 Luka Mirkovic can’t go. However at times Illinois seems to forget that Leonard is on the court and relies on jump shots from D.J. Richardson and Brandon Paul in order to win games. It has been enough at times for the Illini who scrapped by this week with a 42-41 win over Michigan State and have pulled out a number of other close games and home and on the road. In fact, Illinois should probably be even better than they are, but they aren’t and this is a team Northwestern can beat.
For Northwestern to win this game the ‘Cats need a solid effort from their center spot. I’m hoping we’ll see a version of Davide Curletti which is closer to what he was against Michigan State than what he has been in other games. They also need a big game from Drew Crawford. Crawford’s played well of late and if he has a really solid game (especially converting on drives and free throws) he can help push NU to victory. Of course, John Shurna must play a big role and I honestly think he’s a tough matchup for Illinois as long as NU isn’t forced to stick him at center for long stretches. Finally, NU has to get solid on defense. Whether it’s the 1-3-1 or the man-to-man, Northwestern can force Illinois into bad shots and turnovers. We’ve seen that in the past. The key is to do so and then take advantage which NU did not when the two teams played in Evanston. If NU can do that, they might just have a chance to pull off an upset. I predict: Northwestern, 61 Illinois, 58
For Northwestern to win this game the ‘Cats need a solid effort from their center spot. I’m hoping we’ll see a version of Davide Curletti which is closer to what he was against Michigan State than what he has been in other games. They also need a big game from Drew Crawford. Crawford’s played well of late and if he has a really solid game (especially converting on drives and free throws) he can help push NU to victory. Of course, John Shurna must play a big role and I honestly think he’s a tough matchup for Illinois as long as NU isn’t forced to stick him at center for long stretches. Finally, NU has to get solid on defense. Whether it’s the 1-3-1 or the man-to-man, Northwestern can force Illinois into bad shots and turnovers. We’ve seen that in the past. The key is to do so and then take advantage which NU did not when the two teams played in Evanston. If NU can do that, they might just have a chance to pull off an upset. I predict: Northwestern, 61 Illinois, 58
Thursday, January 26, 2012
Wildcats Back at Home to Host Purdue
I went back and forth trying to decide on a headline for this entry. In the end I decided the simplest headline was the best. I’d considered headlines related to this game being kind of a “last stand” or “line in the sand” for the Northwestern basketball program’s 2012 NCAA Tournament hopes and potentially Bill Carmody’s job, but I’d rather step back from that talk for awhile and just watch the next three games Northwestern plays. On February 5, 2012 somewhere around 4PM Central Time we can get back into those questions, but I’m going to let these next three games play out without any big picture discussion. I’m just going to watch basketball. After watching that basketball I feel as though I’ll be able to give an accurate assessment of where this season is going.
Purdue and Northwestern are somewhat similar teams. However, NU’s health status has made NU play with a short hand these past few weeks. Nearly a full week off may help NU in that area. It is important NU have Alex Marcotullio able to go because I could see the 1-3-1 zone being useful at times vs Purdue and Marcotullio is the best Wildcat defender at the top of that zone. Purdue’s got some good shooters in Ryne Smith and DJ Byrd who both make over 40% of their threes and Robbie Hummel who makes 35%, but all three have had slumps at times and Hummel has really struggled of late. Now that probably means he’ll make something like 8-10 vs NU, but it seems like the ‘Cats might be catching Purdue at the right time. Also, Purdue is only 2-3 away from home and while the Illinois loss may haunt NU and Coach Carmody, the ‘Cats have been really good at home other than that game and the loss to powerhouse Baylor during this year (and really going back the last 2-3 years).
I think one of the major keys to the game is how NU handles Purdue’s pressure defense. The Boilermakers known for good defense with guards Kelsey Barlow and Jackson doing a great job other team’s perimeter players. However, NU should actually be able to out-athlete Smith, Byrd, and Hummel. If NU will get anything from its center position is always a question mark, but if it does, Purdue hasn’t lit the world on five with Travis Carroll or Sadi Marcius at the five spot. Maybe Davide Curletti can have another good game or maybe Luka Mirkovic can finally get his head removed from his ass, though, that seems like an operation which would be major surgery at this point.
At times I’ve written on here that I had no idea what to expect from a game. This is one of those. Northwestern and Purdue are both more than capable of winning this and many other games, however, both have failed to win games they should have and haven’t really played well of late. I’d like to think in such a game being at home and getting a crowd behind you helps. I predict: Northwestern, 68 Purdue, 65
Purdue and Northwestern are somewhat similar teams. However, NU’s health status has made NU play with a short hand these past few weeks. Nearly a full week off may help NU in that area. It is important NU have Alex Marcotullio able to go because I could see the 1-3-1 zone being useful at times vs Purdue and Marcotullio is the best Wildcat defender at the top of that zone. Purdue’s got some good shooters in Ryne Smith and DJ Byrd who both make over 40% of their threes and Robbie Hummel who makes 35%, but all three have had slumps at times and Hummel has really struggled of late. Now that probably means he’ll make something like 8-10 vs NU, but it seems like the ‘Cats might be catching Purdue at the right time. Also, Purdue is only 2-3 away from home and while the Illinois loss may haunt NU and Coach Carmody, the ‘Cats have been really good at home other than that game and the loss to powerhouse Baylor during this year (and really going back the last 2-3 years).
I think one of the major keys to the game is how NU handles Purdue’s pressure defense. The Boilermakers known for good defense with guards Kelsey Barlow and Jackson doing a great job other team’s perimeter players. However, NU should actually be able to out-athlete Smith, Byrd, and Hummel. If NU will get anything from its center position is always a question mark, but if it does, Purdue hasn’t lit the world on five with Travis Carroll or Sadi Marcius at the five spot. Maybe Davide Curletti can have another good game or maybe Luka Mirkovic can finally get his head removed from his ass, though, that seems like an operation which would be major surgery at this point.
At times I’ve written on here that I had no idea what to expect from a game. This is one of those. Northwestern and Purdue are both more than capable of winning this and many other games, however, both have failed to win games they should have and haven’t really played well of late. I’d like to think in such a game being at home and getting a crowd behind you helps. I predict: Northwestern, 68 Purdue, 65
Sunday, January 22, 2012
It’s Still the Defense, Stupid.
There is a lot of blame to go around on this one, but as much as NU was just awful on offense to start this game the real facts are that this game was lost on defense. Minnesota was able to get whatever shots they wanted driving to the basket or passing the ball without much pressure from Northwestern and the result was a lot of Gopher points.
Northwestern still lacks the intensity needed on defense to be truly competitive in the Big Ten long term and they still don’t respond well when things go wrong. The most obvious example of this is Drew Crawford. Crawford has the ability to be a good player, but he tends to sulk around when things go bad and forces shots because he wants to score. Then on defense since he’s so upset he didn’t make a basket his athletic ability is negated as he’s too busy worrying about himself to actually guard anybody. I’d say Crawford and Luka Mirkovic are great examples of how lacking in mental toughness Northwestern’s basketball program is, but I don’t want anybody to think they’re the only examples. They just are the ones who show it the most with their body language as it changes 180 degrees based on if they’re playing well or not.
The other major issue is that it seems that for the most part NU is at a point where the only people who really want to shot the ball are Crawford, Shurna, and Marcotullio (who doesn’t even start). This makes defending NU very easy. At some point the rest of NU’s players need to be given the okay to take a shot. After all, as frustrated as Crawford’s out of control drives make me, I understand that he has not choice when three of his teammates pass up wide open looks.
The only good news about this loss is it’ll probably put a stop to any NCAA Tournament talk for Northwestern and it’s about time. This team is about as from being an NCAA Tournament team as five kids playing pick-up at the park. Actually, if those kids play defense and rebound they’re probably closer.
I expect Northwestern will win their next two games which are both at home brining their record to 4-5 in the Big Ten, but the fact is that along with not playing defense; not winning on the road also finishes NU off as far as NCAA Tournament hopes. I’m not going to get into what this means for the program’s coaching situation at this point, but obviously some people will say this game is evidence Bill Carmody needs to be let go. That’s all well and good, but the fact is we’ve seen this game probably at least 25 times before during Carmody’s tenure. Therefore, I find it hard to say this single game is reason enough to let him go. It certainly doesn’t help, though.
Northwestern still lacks the intensity needed on defense to be truly competitive in the Big Ten long term and they still don’t respond well when things go wrong. The most obvious example of this is Drew Crawford. Crawford has the ability to be a good player, but he tends to sulk around when things go bad and forces shots because he wants to score. Then on defense since he’s so upset he didn’t make a basket his athletic ability is negated as he’s too busy worrying about himself to actually guard anybody. I’d say Crawford and Luka Mirkovic are great examples of how lacking in mental toughness Northwestern’s basketball program is, but I don’t want anybody to think they’re the only examples. They just are the ones who show it the most with their body language as it changes 180 degrees based on if they’re playing well or not.
The other major issue is that it seems that for the most part NU is at a point where the only people who really want to shot the ball are Crawford, Shurna, and Marcotullio (who doesn’t even start). This makes defending NU very easy. At some point the rest of NU’s players need to be given the okay to take a shot. After all, as frustrated as Crawford’s out of control drives make me, I understand that he has not choice when three of his teammates pass up wide open looks.
The only good news about this loss is it’ll probably put a stop to any NCAA Tournament talk for Northwestern and it’s about time. This team is about as from being an NCAA Tournament team as five kids playing pick-up at the park. Actually, if those kids play defense and rebound they’re probably closer.
I expect Northwestern will win their next two games which are both at home brining their record to 4-5 in the Big Ten, but the fact is that along with not playing defense; not winning on the road also finishes NU off as far as NCAA Tournament hopes. I’m not going to get into what this means for the program’s coaching situation at this point, but obviously some people will say this game is evidence Bill Carmody needs to be let go. That’s all well and good, but the fact is we’ve seen this game probably at least 25 times before during Carmody’s tenure. Therefore, I find it hard to say this single game is reason enough to let him go. It certainly doesn’t help, though.
Wednesday, January 18, 2012
It’s the Defense, Stupid.
*I've put all the key points of this post in bold so you don't have to read the whole thing if you don't want. Actually, just skip to the last line that’s all you need to read.
Until Northwestern learns to actually play consistent hard man-to-man defense they will never make the NCAA Tournament. Sadly, it doesn’t look like they’ll learn that lesson this year. This game was lost because Northwestern couldn’t stop Wisconsin. The game started with the Badgers making uncontested threes and the game was won when the Badgers made 7-of-8 shots, including several threes, at the start of the second half.
I can’t tell you how upset I am at the fact Northwestern can’t play defense. As many good things as we’ve seen from Northwestern in the last 4 years, the lack of the ability to play defense is a major problem. You can’t only focus on offense which is what it seems that not only Northwestern’s team does, but the media as well. If I have to hear one more time about how great a scoring duo John Shurna and Drew Crawford are while NU is getting craved up for easy basket after easy basket I’m going to vomit. The only thing worse is hearing about how this might be the year for NU to make the Big Dance. Guess what? IT"S NOT!!!!!!!!!!
Admittedly, there were some good things that happened in this game early such as seeing NU attack the basket and seeing a seemingly gaining confidence Dave Sobolewski who showed some nice assertiveness. I still think NU needs some special plays for John Shurna, say run him off some screens, when teams start focus on him, because I can’t stand the way Drew Crawford forces shots. Those shots are fine when 3 seconds are left on the shot clock, but not when 23 second are left and Crawford seems clueless to that fact.
Some other random thoughts on the game include that Luka Mirkovic was terrible and at this point NU is better with a small lineup than with him on the floor. Other people, Luka included if he’s going to play, need to start to look to score because teams are guarding Shurna and Crawford and if NU won’t run any special plays than they just won’t score. I don’t want to hear about how tough it is to win in Wisconsin because this Wisconsin team is not all that great other than Jordan Taylor and he played one of his best games of the year today.
Overall, I’m really just sick and tired of the inconsistency of Northwestern. They can’t handle success so they don’t really have that much. Looking ahead, the truth is thanks to the blown games vs Illinois and Michigan this is right now a team which is a lot closer to a bottom half NIT-seed than an NCAA Tournament bid. It’s sad, but it’s true and I’ll say that until NU wins a road Big Ten game then anybody who talks about this team as an NCAA Tournament team ought to have their head examined. The only place Northwestern is an NCAA Tournament team is Fantasy Island.
Until Northwestern learns to actually play consistent hard man-to-man defense they will never make the NCAA Tournament. Sadly, it doesn’t look like they’ll learn that lesson this year. This game was lost because Northwestern couldn’t stop Wisconsin. The game started with the Badgers making uncontested threes and the game was won when the Badgers made 7-of-8 shots, including several threes, at the start of the second half.
I can’t tell you how upset I am at the fact Northwestern can’t play defense. As many good things as we’ve seen from Northwestern in the last 4 years, the lack of the ability to play defense is a major problem. You can’t only focus on offense which is what it seems that not only Northwestern’s team does, but the media as well. If I have to hear one more time about how great a scoring duo John Shurna and Drew Crawford are while NU is getting craved up for easy basket after easy basket I’m going to vomit. The only thing worse is hearing about how this might be the year for NU to make the Big Dance. Guess what? IT"S NOT!!!!!!!!!!
Admittedly, there were some good things that happened in this game early such as seeing NU attack the basket and seeing a seemingly gaining confidence Dave Sobolewski who showed some nice assertiveness. I still think NU needs some special plays for John Shurna, say run him off some screens, when teams start focus on him, because I can’t stand the way Drew Crawford forces shots. Those shots are fine when 3 seconds are left on the shot clock, but not when 23 second are left and Crawford seems clueless to that fact.
Some other random thoughts on the game include that Luka Mirkovic was terrible and at this point NU is better with a small lineup than with him on the floor. Other people, Luka included if he’s going to play, need to start to look to score because teams are guarding Shurna and Crawford and if NU won’t run any special plays than they just won’t score. I don’t want to hear about how tough it is to win in Wisconsin because this Wisconsin team is not all that great other than Jordan Taylor and he played one of his best games of the year today.
Overall, I’m really just sick and tired of the inconsistency of Northwestern. They can’t handle success so they don’t really have that much. Looking ahead, the truth is thanks to the blown games vs Illinois and Michigan this is right now a team which is a lot closer to a bottom half NIT-seed than an NCAA Tournament bid. It’s sad, but it’s true and I’ll say that until NU wins a road Big Ten game then anybody who talks about this team as an NCAA Tournament team ought to have their head examined. The only place Northwestern is an NCAA Tournament team is Fantasy Island.
Monday, January 16, 2012
Can the ‘Cats Keep Wildcat Nation Smiling with a Win at Wisconsin?
As the Northwestern students rushed onto the court Saturday afternoon and Gus Johnson in his typical enthusiastic manner said, “Chicago’s…Big…Ten…Team!” (BTW, I’d have Johnson’s call on that in every NU promo from now until the Sun burns out). Wildcat Nation had to break out into a collective grin. The two losses the Wildcats suffered to Illinois and Michigan had left me (and I assume most of you) just sad. Not even upset. Just so sad. On Thursday after the Michigan loss I had people ask if I felt sick and I really think it was because I was just so depressed after seeing the Wildcats fail in what seemed like a defining game for this season that I simply didn’t look well. I know I’m way too invested in what happens with the ‘Cats and sincerely wish I had something else in my life with which to replace them as a priority, but I don’t and so I’m hoping that my depression from the Michigan loss can be totally replaced after a win Wednesday in Madison. Sure, the Michigan State win was great, but the losses to Illinois and Michigan right now are still haunting defeats. However, that can change. NU has a great chance to beat Wisconsin at the Kohl Center for the first time ever this week. In addition, Minnesota is an inconsistent team that I could see the Wildcats being able to play with when they travel up to the Twin Cities on Sunday.
For now though let’s keep focused on what’s going on in Madison. This is a talented Wisconsin team, but they’re underachieving right now. Especially on offense. Rumors are even circulating that star guard Jordan Taylor is playing hurt and that’s the reason for his only shooting 39% overall and only 31% from three point range. Whatever the case, Taylor has looked far more mortal this season than in the last two and his struggles have turned into team struggles as the Badgers have failed to score. When the Badgers have scored they’ve done so by supporting Taylor’s 13.8ppg with Jared Breggren (10.9ppg) inside and two recruits who chose Wisconsin over Northwestern Josh Gasser (48.9% 3PT) and Ben Brust (40.2% 3PT) from the outside. Gasser’s probably been the most consistent of the guards as Brust has had some big games such as seven threes versus UNLV and had some days where he seriously struggled. Honestly, though, I think NU can out shoot Wisconsin if it comes down to that. My bigger concern is on the offensive glass. Davide Curletti played the game his life on Saturday getting NU some second chance points and helping contain Michigan State’s front court from getting easy putbacks. However, I question the reality of getting the same game out of Curletti again. I think NU will need something good out of Luka Mirkovic and Davide as they battle the rebounding of Breggren, Ryan Evans, and the aptly named Mike Bruesewitz who pull down five-plus boards. Also, don’t discount Gasser as a rebounder. He’s very active around the glass. I have to say that although Josh Gasser obviously isn’t the dominate player that Andrew Luck is that as much as the Wildcats might lament losing out on Luck to Stanford in football, losing Gasser was just as bad for basketball. Based on who the ‘Cats had on the team these last two years and Gasser’s shooting and active play I truly think he might have been the missing piece to NU making the tournament. Of course, he’s a Badger there is nothing that can be done about it. I can tell you, though, I’m going to be really really pissed if he’s the difference in this game.
Looking at the game, NU used the 1-3-1 all game vs MSU, but Wisconsin is a different type of team. They’re a little better at taking care of the ball and have the potential to shoot better. However, if the Badgers continue to slump shooting then perhaps the 1-3-1 could be the key to a win. One thing we know for sure is that taking care of the ball will be key as this should be a low scoring game. I know Northwestern can win this game. However, with Bill Carmody’s 0-12 record in Madison and the way NU get hammered by Wisconsin last year I can’t really honestly predict an NU victory. Plus, Wisconsin is by far the most physical team in the Big Ten and NU seems to basically have six players right now with Alex Marcotullio likely out, JerShon Cobb at something like 70%, and Nick Fruendt as the primary sub at guard and Luka Mirkovic as the primary sub in the front court. That’s tough. I think this is a close game and I think NU can win, but they’ll need a lot of breaks which might not happen in Mad Town. I Predict: Wisconsin, 55 Northwestern, 50
For now though let’s keep focused on what’s going on in Madison. This is a talented Wisconsin team, but they’re underachieving right now. Especially on offense. Rumors are even circulating that star guard Jordan Taylor is playing hurt and that’s the reason for his only shooting 39% overall and only 31% from three point range. Whatever the case, Taylor has looked far more mortal this season than in the last two and his struggles have turned into team struggles as the Badgers have failed to score. When the Badgers have scored they’ve done so by supporting Taylor’s 13.8ppg with Jared Breggren (10.9ppg) inside and two recruits who chose Wisconsin over Northwestern Josh Gasser (48.9% 3PT) and Ben Brust (40.2% 3PT) from the outside. Gasser’s probably been the most consistent of the guards as Brust has had some big games such as seven threes versus UNLV and had some days where he seriously struggled. Honestly, though, I think NU can out shoot Wisconsin if it comes down to that. My bigger concern is on the offensive glass. Davide Curletti played the game his life on Saturday getting NU some second chance points and helping contain Michigan State’s front court from getting easy putbacks. However, I question the reality of getting the same game out of Curletti again. I think NU will need something good out of Luka Mirkovic and Davide as they battle the rebounding of Breggren, Ryan Evans, and the aptly named Mike Bruesewitz who pull down five-plus boards. Also, don’t discount Gasser as a rebounder. He’s very active around the glass. I have to say that although Josh Gasser obviously isn’t the dominate player that Andrew Luck is that as much as the Wildcats might lament losing out on Luck to Stanford in football, losing Gasser was just as bad for basketball. Based on who the ‘Cats had on the team these last two years and Gasser’s shooting and active play I truly think he might have been the missing piece to NU making the tournament. Of course, he’s a Badger there is nothing that can be done about it. I can tell you, though, I’m going to be really really pissed if he’s the difference in this game.
Looking at the game, NU used the 1-3-1 all game vs MSU, but Wisconsin is a different type of team. They’re a little better at taking care of the ball and have the potential to shoot better. However, if the Badgers continue to slump shooting then perhaps the 1-3-1 could be the key to a win. One thing we know for sure is that taking care of the ball will be key as this should be a low scoring game. I know Northwestern can win this game. However, with Bill Carmody’s 0-12 record in Madison and the way NU get hammered by Wisconsin last year I can’t really honestly predict an NU victory. Plus, Wisconsin is by far the most physical team in the Big Ten and NU seems to basically have six players right now with Alex Marcotullio likely out, JerShon Cobb at something like 70%, and Nick Fruendt as the primary sub at guard and Luka Mirkovic as the primary sub in the front court. That’s tough. I think this is a close game and I think NU can win, but they’ll need a lot of breaks which might not happen in Mad Town. I Predict: Wisconsin, 55 Northwestern, 50
Saturday, January 14, 2012
Rebound. Yes!
They finally did it. The Wildcats rebounded both in basketball terms and mentally to get their second quality win of the year. It’s easy to look at today’s game and then look back and really be frustrated by the losses NU suffered to Illinois and Michigan, but you can’t do that. You need to focus on today’s success and use that as a potential jumping off point for a sustained run of success.
The Wildcats still ran into some old problems such as their continued struggles at the free throw line and they seem to have issues at times recognizing that they are being doubled teamed and as a result miss getting the ball to open shooters. However, some of the other major issues the Wildcats have had such as turnover trouble and rebounding were taken care of today. The ‘Cats turned the ball over just seven times compared to MSU’s 14 and while Michigan State did outrebound NU by 12, the Spartans didn’t have many three or four shot possessions which just cut the heart out of NU’s effort to sustain momentum. I truly believe if NU plays as well on the glass as they did today and shoots free throws as well as they can that Northwestern will have a chance in virtually any game they play.
Part of Northwestern’s success on the glass today came as a result of finally getting production from the center spot. Davide Curletti ended the day with a team high six rebounds but it wasn’t just the number. It was that twice he turned offensive rebounds into points. It was that his hustle keep the ball alive and seemed to inspire NU’s other guys to hit the glass.
Thanks to Curletti getting 17 points and finally giving NU a center who was willing to take and make an outside shot, the game seemed to open up for NU’s other players to drive the lane. Dave Sobolewski found his way to the hoop several time as did John Shurna, Drew Crawford, and Reggie Hearn. While Shurna and Crawford were, as one would expect, the big scorers in the game, you can’t discount the performance from the other guys on NU’s team. Especially when you consider that Shurna, Crawford, Curletti, Hearn, and Sobolewski basically played the entire second half thanks to Luka Mirkovic’s ineffectiveness and JerShon Cobb and Alex Marcotullio’s injuries. Those issues also caused Nick Fruendt to get off the bench for seven minutes today and while he really didn’t go anything on offense or get a rebound, he wasn’t abused by superior athletes as so many people have feared he would end up being if he played.
I mentioned NU still struggled from the free throw line, but John Shurna did make 10-of-11 which was huge because he wasn’t hitting a ton from the field. This once again brings up the question why he wasn’t allowed to shoot the technical against Michigan, but I’ll try my best not to dwell on that fact. The guy who did shoot that technical was Drew Crawford and he had a nice day today as well (though only made 1-of-2 free throws) making some nice drives to the basket, mid-range shots, and hitting three threes. Dave Sobolewski took care of the ball with seven assists and only one turnover.
I’m not sure NU can go a real long winning streak without getting healthier, but it was good to see that even without Marcotullio to sub for him in the second half that Reggie Hearn kept making plays. He pulled down some key rebounds and made a couple nice baskets around the hoop which were in key in NU’s ability to hold the lead.
Overall this was a great and much needed win for the mental state of not only this team but the NU fans as well.
If the 'Cats can win at Wisconsin next week then I'll be willing to get back to talking tournament.
Oh yeah, and if the Big Ten is willing to let us wear those black jerseys at home I say we wear them every game until we lose. They've got to be okay on the road becasue they're a dark color and I guess based on the fact we wore them, that we're allowed to wear them at home too.
The Wildcats still ran into some old problems such as their continued struggles at the free throw line and they seem to have issues at times recognizing that they are being doubled teamed and as a result miss getting the ball to open shooters. However, some of the other major issues the Wildcats have had such as turnover trouble and rebounding were taken care of today. The ‘Cats turned the ball over just seven times compared to MSU’s 14 and while Michigan State did outrebound NU by 12, the Spartans didn’t have many three or four shot possessions which just cut the heart out of NU’s effort to sustain momentum. I truly believe if NU plays as well on the glass as they did today and shoots free throws as well as they can that Northwestern will have a chance in virtually any game they play.
Part of Northwestern’s success on the glass today came as a result of finally getting production from the center spot. Davide Curletti ended the day with a team high six rebounds but it wasn’t just the number. It was that twice he turned offensive rebounds into points. It was that his hustle keep the ball alive and seemed to inspire NU’s other guys to hit the glass.
Thanks to Curletti getting 17 points and finally giving NU a center who was willing to take and make an outside shot, the game seemed to open up for NU’s other players to drive the lane. Dave Sobolewski found his way to the hoop several time as did John Shurna, Drew Crawford, and Reggie Hearn. While Shurna and Crawford were, as one would expect, the big scorers in the game, you can’t discount the performance from the other guys on NU’s team. Especially when you consider that Shurna, Crawford, Curletti, Hearn, and Sobolewski basically played the entire second half thanks to Luka Mirkovic’s ineffectiveness and JerShon Cobb and Alex Marcotullio’s injuries. Those issues also caused Nick Fruendt to get off the bench for seven minutes today and while he really didn’t go anything on offense or get a rebound, he wasn’t abused by superior athletes as so many people have feared he would end up being if he played.
I mentioned NU still struggled from the free throw line, but John Shurna did make 10-of-11 which was huge because he wasn’t hitting a ton from the field. This once again brings up the question why he wasn’t allowed to shoot the technical against Michigan, but I’ll try my best not to dwell on that fact. The guy who did shoot that technical was Drew Crawford and he had a nice day today as well (though only made 1-of-2 free throws) making some nice drives to the basket, mid-range shots, and hitting three threes. Dave Sobolewski took care of the ball with seven assists and only one turnover.
I’m not sure NU can go a real long winning streak without getting healthier, but it was good to see that even without Marcotullio to sub for him in the second half that Reggie Hearn kept making plays. He pulled down some key rebounds and made a couple nice baskets around the hoop which were in key in NU’s ability to hold the lead.
Overall this was a great and much needed win for the mental state of not only this team but the NU fans as well.
If the 'Cats can win at Wisconsin next week then I'll be willing to get back to talking tournament.
Oh yeah, and if the Big Ten is willing to let us wear those black jerseys at home I say we wear them every game until we lose. They've got to be okay on the road becasue they're a dark color and I guess based on the fact we wore them, that we're allowed to wear them at home too.
Friday, January 13, 2012
Wildcats Looking to Rebound (in many ways) versus Michigan State
Rebound. In basketball it’s what you get when a missed shot occurs. In life it’s what you do when something goes wrong. Northwestern’s men’s basketball team and Wildcat Nation as a whole need to do both Saturday afternoon. The last two losses the team has suffered have been by a total of three points and in both cases the ‘Cats failed to pull in the critical rebound which would have perhaps allowed them to win that game. As a result, the team and its fans find themselves extremely frustrated, but plenty of basketball is left to play.
Interestingly enough the Wildcats opponent, Michigan State, excels at rebounding in both on both the basketball court and in the mental aspect of life. The Spartans are monsters on the glass pulling in more than 10 more rebounds a game than their opponents. Mentally, the Spartans rebounded to win 15 games in a row after losing their first two contests of the season. As a result of the winning streak the Spartans record stands at 15-2 and their national ranking stands at #6. If Northwestern were to win this game it would be a significant victory in the quest to see NU rebound from defeat and they won’t be able to do so without rebounding in the game.
MSU’s top player Draymond Green gets 9.8 rebounds per game and seems to always find the ball in the key situations. He’s also a multi-talented scorer who can beat you both around the hoop and from outside. In addition, the Spartans also feature the super-athletic Adreian Payne and the greatly improved Derrick Nix down in the post. That’s not to mention MSU’s athletic guards such as freshman Branden Dawson and transfer Brandon Wood. Both players have shown the ability to step up in key situations. Along with those two players in the back court is MSU’s point guard Keith Appling. The 6-1 Appling is a good shooter and scorer, though, he is still learning to play point guard.
For Northwestern to beat this team will be a tough task. It’ll be even tougher if NU continues to play 4-on-5 while on offense which is what happens when NU’s center refuse to even consider shooting the ball. With MSU’s size the ‘Cats will most likely have to use Luka Mirkovic a lot in this game. If he still handles the ball like it’s a ticking time bomb that he desperately wants out of his hands it’ll be a long afternoon. Somehow, someway Luka needs to hit a couple shots. If that happens the entire NU offense will come alive. When that happens I think the ‘Cats actually become a team which could beat MSU, but I don’t see that happening at this point. I predict: Michigan State, 74 Northwestern, 66
Also of note, NU is once again with JerShon Cobb who has reinjured his hip. With Cobb out NU’s rotation is severely limited. Not a good thing vs a deep and athletic team like Michigan State. I’d also guess based on the end of Wednesday’s game that Alex Marcotullio isn’t 100% either so NU really is suffering health wise.
Interestingly enough the Wildcats opponent, Michigan State, excels at rebounding in both on both the basketball court and in the mental aspect of life. The Spartans are monsters on the glass pulling in more than 10 more rebounds a game than their opponents. Mentally, the Spartans rebounded to win 15 games in a row after losing their first two contests of the season. As a result of the winning streak the Spartans record stands at 15-2 and their national ranking stands at #6. If Northwestern were to win this game it would be a significant victory in the quest to see NU rebound from defeat and they won’t be able to do so without rebounding in the game.
MSU’s top player Draymond Green gets 9.8 rebounds per game and seems to always find the ball in the key situations. He’s also a multi-talented scorer who can beat you both around the hoop and from outside. In addition, the Spartans also feature the super-athletic Adreian Payne and the greatly improved Derrick Nix down in the post. That’s not to mention MSU’s athletic guards such as freshman Branden Dawson and transfer Brandon Wood. Both players have shown the ability to step up in key situations. Along with those two players in the back court is MSU’s point guard Keith Appling. The 6-1 Appling is a good shooter and scorer, though, he is still learning to play point guard.
For Northwestern to beat this team will be a tough task. It’ll be even tougher if NU continues to play 4-on-5 while on offense which is what happens when NU’s center refuse to even consider shooting the ball. With MSU’s size the ‘Cats will most likely have to use Luka Mirkovic a lot in this game. If he still handles the ball like it’s a ticking time bomb that he desperately wants out of his hands it’ll be a long afternoon. Somehow, someway Luka needs to hit a couple shots. If that happens the entire NU offense will come alive. When that happens I think the ‘Cats actually become a team which could beat MSU, but I don’t see that happening at this point. I predict: Michigan State, 74 Northwestern, 66
Also of note, NU is once again with JerShon Cobb who has reinjured his hip. With Cobb out NU’s rotation is severely limited. Not a good thing vs a deep and athletic team like Michigan State. I’d also guess based on the end of Wednesday’s game that Alex Marcotullio isn’t 100% either so NU really is suffering health wise.
Saturday, January 7, 2012
Wildcat Centers Need to Take and Make Shots
Okay, I’m not ready to write off this season yet, but I think a change needs to be made if Northwestern wants to seriously compete for that elusive NCAA berth (which after the loss to Illinois looks once again like it’s slipping away). In that contest against Illinois the Illini defense forced the Wildcats to shoot outside jump shots which weren’t falling because they kept 7-1 Myers Leonard in the paint instead of brining him out on the perimeter to guard NU centers Luka Mirkovic and Davide Curletti when they had the ball 15 feet or farther from the basket. The reason Illinois was able to do this was because after one miss from each player it seemed they both decided (or were told) not to shoot anymore. The fact is that the best Princeton Offense teams had centers who could hit jump shots because it opened up more of the offense. Right now Northwestern doesn’t have that and as a result the backdoor cuts and drives to the hoop aren’t there.
In the past Luka and Davide have hit such shots. Davide has even made a few this season, however, Luka has really struggled shooting. Overall, though, neither has shot well recently. Given that, I can somewhat understand the reluctance to have them shoot, but I think they’re almost hurting the team more by not shooting than they would be missing. The shots Illinois was allowing Luka to take and that he was passing were wide open 15-foot shots. Instead, he’d give up the ball and NU would settle for a poor three point shot that would rim out of the new exceedingly unkind Welsh-Ryan rims. If Luka had taken and even made 33% of the shots Illinois allowed him NU probably would have won the game. Instead, he passed and the result was an Illini triumph.
If Luka and Davide aren’t going to take such shots my proposal is that NU switch to the small lineup they used briefly vs Illinois. Playing John Shurna at center might create issues on defense at times, but probably not against every Big Ten team as there are some undersized teams in the league. Plus, I’m not saying Shurna play 40 minutes at center. I’m saying get him 8-10 minutes there to help open up driving lanes and backdoor cuts. Plus, moving him to center might get him some more easy shots because it’ll create mismatches with larger defenders. Bottom line, NU needs a center that can shoot and the 6-9 Shurna is an undersized, but reasonable option for a team that needs a spark.
Let me shift gears slightly here. I was pretty upset at the loss to Illinois. I’m pretty upset after every loss now that we have expectations for Northwestern hoops. I think you could all probably tell that from reading my unedited frustration on Wednesday night. However, I can’t give up on this team (even if I may want to at times). They’re my team. I’m a Northwestern fan. I have been since I was 10 years old. I don’t cheer for an NFL team or an NBA team or really care that much about the White Sox or Cubs. It’s my dream to see Northwestern in the NCAA Tournament and to paraphrase a line from this song by musician Will Hoge, I’m going to keep on believing in that dream no matter how many times it breaks my heart.
In the past Luka and Davide have hit such shots. Davide has even made a few this season, however, Luka has really struggled shooting. Overall, though, neither has shot well recently. Given that, I can somewhat understand the reluctance to have them shoot, but I think they’re almost hurting the team more by not shooting than they would be missing. The shots Illinois was allowing Luka to take and that he was passing were wide open 15-foot shots. Instead, he’d give up the ball and NU would settle for a poor three point shot that would rim out of the new exceedingly unkind Welsh-Ryan rims. If Luka had taken and even made 33% of the shots Illinois allowed him NU probably would have won the game. Instead, he passed and the result was an Illini triumph.
If Luka and Davide aren’t going to take such shots my proposal is that NU switch to the small lineup they used briefly vs Illinois. Playing John Shurna at center might create issues on defense at times, but probably not against every Big Ten team as there are some undersized teams in the league. Plus, I’m not saying Shurna play 40 minutes at center. I’m saying get him 8-10 minutes there to help open up driving lanes and backdoor cuts. Plus, moving him to center might get him some more easy shots because it’ll create mismatches with larger defenders. Bottom line, NU needs a center that can shoot and the 6-9 Shurna is an undersized, but reasonable option for a team that needs a spark.
Let me shift gears slightly here. I was pretty upset at the loss to Illinois. I’m pretty upset after every loss now that we have expectations for Northwestern hoops. I think you could all probably tell that from reading my unedited frustration on Wednesday night. However, I can’t give up on this team (even if I may want to at times). They’re my team. I’m a Northwestern fan. I have been since I was 10 years old. I don’t cheer for an NFL team or an NBA team or really care that much about the White Sox or Cubs. It’s my dream to see Northwestern in the NCAA Tournament and to paraphrase a line from this song by musician Will Hoge, I’m going to keep on believing in that dream no matter how many times it breaks my heart.
Tuesday, January 3, 2012
Game vs Illinois Might Answer Some Questions For NU
I have no idea what to make of this Northwestern team and based on the various comments I’ve read from fans and the media neither does anyone else. Right now Northwestern is 11-3 through 14 games. They’ve played 10 teams they were almost certainly better than and won those 10 games. They’ve played two teams (Ohio State and Baylor) who they were almost certainly worse than and lost those games. And they’ve played two teams (Creighton and Seton Hall) who they were probably about even with and split those two games. Being able to consistently beat teams they are better than is a good step in the right direction for NU and losing to teams that are better is no shame, but the key to making the NCAA Tournament is going to be posting a better than .500 record against teams who NU matches up with evenly. The best way to that better than .500 mark is to win the contests at Welsh-Ryan and steal a couple on the road. In the end that would probably give NU 9 or 10 Big Ten wins and the result would be the NCAA Tournament.
The above paragraph becomes important because Illinois is one of those teams that NU is pretty even with. Sure, Illinois might have more flat out talent, but when the teams hit the court (especially in Evanston) the combination of a home court advantage and a more fine-tuned offensive system should even it out for NU. That means as Glenn said in the comment to the picture below, this really is a must-win game for NU!
The 12-3 Illini enter this contest coming off a road loss to Purdue and holding just a 3-3 record away from home. In other words, the Illini have been strong at Assembly Hall, but average away. NU holds that strong 46-3 record versus unranked opponents at home since 2008.
This is a pressure game for Illinois as well with them losing to Purdue and barely beating Minnesota at home. Their once promising could slip away if they drop this contest to the ‘Cats. It’s also a big game for Bruce Weber who despite his 205-89 career record is taking a lot of heat from Illinois fans for the team’s lack of postseason success and inability to compete for the league title in recent years. If Illinois is going to compete for anything this year they need to focus on getting 7-1 center Myers Leonard the ball. Leonard puts up 13.4ppg and 8.3rpg, but he shoots 61% from the floor. If he got the ball more he could average 20ppg with ease. The problem is it seems at times Illinois isn’t sure what type of team they are. Are they inside team with Leonard scoring in the post and Brandon Paul (12.3ppg) driving the lane or are they a jump shooting team with D.J. Richardson (40.6% 3PT) and Paul taking outside jump shots? What they should probably be is an inside-outside team that gets Leonard going early and then kicks to ball outside for open looks because aside from Richardson nobody on the Illini has much success shooting from the arc. The numbers look like this for the rest of Illinois’s projected starters:
Paul…28.4%
Leonard…25%
Sam Maniscalco…30.4%
Tyler Griffey…28.6%
To me that means NU should start in the 1-3-1 until Illinois proves they’re going to have an above average shooting game. The ‘Cats need to pressure the ball in that 1-3-1 and clog driving lanes, but a solid 1-3-1 that forces outside shots from people not named D.J. Richardson could be a recipe for success.
On offense I think we can probably assume Luka Mirkovic isn’t going to have a ton of success scoring on the block versus Leonard. That’s fine. Move Luka to the high post and let him distribute the ball to Shurna and Crawford who can attack the basket matched up on Griffey and Richardson respectively. If that works Illinois will have to sag into the lane and then the Wildcats can look again to Dave Sobolewski and Alex Marcotullio to boost the scoring from behind the arc.
Finally, I’ll say that the last key to this game for NU is intensity. That’s why Alex Marcotullio has to be a big factor. Without referees Big Ten basketball would basically be a street fight (it almost is anyway) and Alex is the only NU player who when you look at him has a facial expression that looks as if he just stepped off the set of Rocky V. If Alex can get the rest of the ‘Cats to have the same intensity on defense and the glass that he has I expect to see a Northwestern win. I predict: Northwestern, 70 Illinois, 65
The above paragraph becomes important because Illinois is one of those teams that NU is pretty even with. Sure, Illinois might have more flat out talent, but when the teams hit the court (especially in Evanston) the combination of a home court advantage and a more fine-tuned offensive system should even it out for NU. That means as Glenn said in the comment to the picture below, this really is a must-win game for NU!
The 12-3 Illini enter this contest coming off a road loss to Purdue and holding just a 3-3 record away from home. In other words, the Illini have been strong at Assembly Hall, but average away. NU holds that strong 46-3 record versus unranked opponents at home since 2008.
This is a pressure game for Illinois as well with them losing to Purdue and barely beating Minnesota at home. Their once promising could slip away if they drop this contest to the ‘Cats. It’s also a big game for Bruce Weber who despite his 205-89 career record is taking a lot of heat from Illinois fans for the team’s lack of postseason success and inability to compete for the league title in recent years. If Illinois is going to compete for anything this year they need to focus on getting 7-1 center Myers Leonard the ball. Leonard puts up 13.4ppg and 8.3rpg, but he shoots 61% from the floor. If he got the ball more he could average 20ppg with ease. The problem is it seems at times Illinois isn’t sure what type of team they are. Are they inside team with Leonard scoring in the post and Brandon Paul (12.3ppg) driving the lane or are they a jump shooting team with D.J. Richardson (40.6% 3PT) and Paul taking outside jump shots? What they should probably be is an inside-outside team that gets Leonard going early and then kicks to ball outside for open looks because aside from Richardson nobody on the Illini has much success shooting from the arc. The numbers look like this for the rest of Illinois’s projected starters:
Paul…28.4%
Leonard…25%
Sam Maniscalco…30.4%
Tyler Griffey…28.6%
To me that means NU should start in the 1-3-1 until Illinois proves they’re going to have an above average shooting game. The ‘Cats need to pressure the ball in that 1-3-1 and clog driving lanes, but a solid 1-3-1 that forces outside shots from people not named D.J. Richardson could be a recipe for success.
On offense I think we can probably assume Luka Mirkovic isn’t going to have a ton of success scoring on the block versus Leonard. That’s fine. Move Luka to the high post and let him distribute the ball to Shurna and Crawford who can attack the basket matched up on Griffey and Richardson respectively. If that works Illinois will have to sag into the lane and then the Wildcats can look again to Dave Sobolewski and Alex Marcotullio to boost the scoring from behind the arc.
Finally, I’ll say that the last key to this game for NU is intensity. That’s why Alex Marcotullio has to be a big factor. Without referees Big Ten basketball would basically be a street fight (it almost is anyway) and Alex is the only NU player who when you look at him has a facial expression that looks as if he just stepped off the set of Rocky V. If Alex can get the rest of the ‘Cats to have the same intensity on defense and the glass that he has I expect to see a Northwestern win. I predict: Northwestern, 70 Illinois, 65
Sunday, January 1, 2012
Wildcats Pickup First Win Over Penn State in Five Years
A solid second half which saw Northwestern shoot 71.4% and outscore Penn State by 15 was enough for NU to beat Penn State 68-56 for their first Big Ten win of the season. The win was the Wildcats first over Penn State in their last seven tries and moved the Wildcats record in their last 46-3 in their last 49 games against unranked opponents. The game didn’t start great as Penn State led 26-23 at the half and NU got outrebounded by 11 in the first half and looked sluggish. Thankfully, the ‘Cats rebounded in the second half thanks to some hot shooting and a stronger defensive effort keyed by Alex Marcotullio’s effort off the bench.
Aside from Marcotullio who I will talk about more a little later, I think Drew Crawford stood out above the rest of the Wildcats tonight. Drew played very strong defense on Tim Frazier helping hold the Penn State star to 16 points and forcing 4 turnovers. In addition, Crawford led the Wildcats in scoring 21 points and being assertive towards the hoop, but within the offense. The result was him taking just two threes, but making both and converting going towards the hoop on several occasions early in the second half. When Drew plays within the offense and plays with confidence he can be a special player.
I was also once again impressed with Dave Sobolewski. He played hard and early on seemed to be the only Wildcat who was focused on the game. For the day Sobolewski scored a career high 20 points and I was pleased he did so in a variety of ways. Yes, he was notable as a three point shooter, but he also found several routes towards the hoop to drive and score. Adding that skill to his game will make Sobo a better threat throughout the Big Ten season.
John Shurna was the third Wildcat in double figures with 17 points. It was a solid game. However, it was clear Penn State was very focused on stopping him. As a result, I’m starting to think Coach Carmody needs to go into his files and find some of his set plays which are geared towards getting one guy a shot. The Princeton Offense is great, but it is truly an offense which is set to get an open shot for whoever is open. At times you need to get your best player a shot and those special plays can make that happen when the defense is overly focused on him.
As promised earlier I want to talk about Alex Marcotullio. I thought it was notable that Northwestern played harder when Marcotullio was on the floor. His hustle on defense and his effort to fight for rebounding despite his small size seemed to motivate Luka Mirkovic and some of the bigger Wildcats to fight on the boards as well. I’m leaning towards starting Marcotullio if I’m Bill Carmody, but we’ll have to wait and see.
The major areas of concern for Northwestern continue to be free throw shooting and rebounding. Luka Mirkovic did grab 11 rebounds for NU, but Penn State still outrebounded the Wildcats by nine. Free throw shooting was simply bad with the center position going 2-for-9. I know Luka and Davide can play better and I hope we see that at the free throw line and all over on offense on Wednesday.
Aside from Marcotullio who I will talk about more a little later, I think Drew Crawford stood out above the rest of the Wildcats tonight. Drew played very strong defense on Tim Frazier helping hold the Penn State star to 16 points and forcing 4 turnovers. In addition, Crawford led the Wildcats in scoring 21 points and being assertive towards the hoop, but within the offense. The result was him taking just two threes, but making both and converting going towards the hoop on several occasions early in the second half. When Drew plays within the offense and plays with confidence he can be a special player.
I was also once again impressed with Dave Sobolewski. He played hard and early on seemed to be the only Wildcat who was focused on the game. For the day Sobolewski scored a career high 20 points and I was pleased he did so in a variety of ways. Yes, he was notable as a three point shooter, but he also found several routes towards the hoop to drive and score. Adding that skill to his game will make Sobo a better threat throughout the Big Ten season.
John Shurna was the third Wildcat in double figures with 17 points. It was a solid game. However, it was clear Penn State was very focused on stopping him. As a result, I’m starting to think Coach Carmody needs to go into his files and find some of his set plays which are geared towards getting one guy a shot. The Princeton Offense is great, but it is truly an offense which is set to get an open shot for whoever is open. At times you need to get your best player a shot and those special plays can make that happen when the defense is overly focused on him.
As promised earlier I want to talk about Alex Marcotullio. I thought it was notable that Northwestern played harder when Marcotullio was on the floor. His hustle on defense and his effort to fight for rebounding despite his small size seemed to motivate Luka Mirkovic and some of the bigger Wildcats to fight on the boards as well. I’m leaning towards starting Marcotullio if I’m Bill Carmody, but we’ll have to wait and see.
The major areas of concern for Northwestern continue to be free throw shooting and rebounding. Luka Mirkovic did grab 11 rebounds for NU, but Penn State still outrebounded the Wildcats by nine. Free throw shooting was simply bad with the center position going 2-for-9. I know Luka and Davide can play better and I hope we see that at the free throw line and all over on offense on Wednesday.
Saturday, December 31, 2011
Wildcats Host Penn State on New Year’s Day
Wildcat Nation might still be depressed that Coach Fitz’s football couldn’t get the monkey off their back and win a bowl game, but the basketball ‘Cats are focused on a monkey of their own. Northwestern has lost for consecutive games to Penn State by an average margin of 17 points. Many of Penn State’s players and coaches haven’t been a part of those games, but most of Northwestern’s have and they know those losses have been disappointing and critical to harming NU’s postseason dreams over the past three years. The last Northwestern win over Penn State was in 2007 in Evanston.
Coach Patrick Chambers brings in a Penn State team with an 8-6 record. The Lions are led by point guard Tim Frazier who took over the do everything role that used to belong to Talor Battle. Frazier leads the team with 17.4ppg, 5.6rpg, and 6.9apg. This will be another tough matchup for freshman guard Dave Sobolewski who faced off versus Ohio State’s Aaron Craft in NU’s first Big Ten game of the year. It’s tough to ask Sobolewski to battle these guys, but that’s the Big Ten. You don’t get any off nights as Wisconsin found out in going down to Ohio State.
The fact is that while the Frazier v. Sobolewski matchup might not be an advantage for Northwestern, I think the rest of the floor offers positives for NU. One of the key notes is that NU has size over Penn State at nearly every spot. Penn State’s biggest starter is 6-8 Billy Oliver. Off the bench they’ll bring in Sasa Borovnjak who is 6-9, but the fact is that Luka Mirkovic will have a significant size advantage over anybody Penn State plays. That means Luka needs to get involved in the game early. Luka’s inconsistency has been frustrating for NU fans over the years, but we all know that a strong game from Luka equals a Wildcat victory and this game presents the Wildcat center with the chance to have a big game.
Another Wildcat who has to be expected to have a big game is John Shurna. At 6-9 Shurna is also bigger than any Penn State starter. Sure, Penn State might play zone as opposed to let a 6-5 guy try to guard Shurna, but that means Shurna should have the advantage in getting off open shots and getting off shots with a size advantage. Personally, I called out Drew Crawford and JerShon Cobb for what I thought was selfish play in the Ohio State game, but it seems to me that Coach Bill Carmody had more issues with Shurna based on what he said in the post game after Ohio State. Penn State isn’t one of the stronger teams NU will play this year, but it is probably important that Shurna respond to the adversity of the last game and show up focused from wire to wire on Sunday evening.
As for the rest of Wildcats Drew Crawford should have an advantage in terms of athletic skill which he didn’t have versus Ohio State, but I’d still like to see him take shots within the offense instead of freelancing. Reggie Hearn has been very quite since his big game versus Central Connecticut. I’d like to see either Hearn or Alex Marcotullio start to hit some three point shots and give the Wildcats another realistic scoring threat from behind the arc that teams need to respect. Will that happen on Sunday? It’s hard to say as the consistency hasn’t been there for those two guys yet this year. However, I do think NU will do enough to win this game. I predict: Northwestern, 77 Penn State, 70
Coach Patrick Chambers brings in a Penn State team with an 8-6 record. The Lions are led by point guard Tim Frazier who took over the do everything role that used to belong to Talor Battle. Frazier leads the team with 17.4ppg, 5.6rpg, and 6.9apg. This will be another tough matchup for freshman guard Dave Sobolewski who faced off versus Ohio State’s Aaron Craft in NU’s first Big Ten game of the year. It’s tough to ask Sobolewski to battle these guys, but that’s the Big Ten. You don’t get any off nights as Wisconsin found out in going down to Ohio State.
The fact is that while the Frazier v. Sobolewski matchup might not be an advantage for Northwestern, I think the rest of the floor offers positives for NU. One of the key notes is that NU has size over Penn State at nearly every spot. Penn State’s biggest starter is 6-8 Billy Oliver. Off the bench they’ll bring in Sasa Borovnjak who is 6-9, but the fact is that Luka Mirkovic will have a significant size advantage over anybody Penn State plays. That means Luka needs to get involved in the game early. Luka’s inconsistency has been frustrating for NU fans over the years, but we all know that a strong game from Luka equals a Wildcat victory and this game presents the Wildcat center with the chance to have a big game.
Another Wildcat who has to be expected to have a big game is John Shurna. At 6-9 Shurna is also bigger than any Penn State starter. Sure, Penn State might play zone as opposed to let a 6-5 guy try to guard Shurna, but that means Shurna should have the advantage in getting off open shots and getting off shots with a size advantage. Personally, I called out Drew Crawford and JerShon Cobb for what I thought was selfish play in the Ohio State game, but it seems to me that Coach Bill Carmody had more issues with Shurna based on what he said in the post game after Ohio State. Penn State isn’t one of the stronger teams NU will play this year, but it is probably important that Shurna respond to the adversity of the last game and show up focused from wire to wire on Sunday evening.
As for the rest of Wildcats Drew Crawford should have an advantage in terms of athletic skill which he didn’t have versus Ohio State, but I’d still like to see him take shots within the offense instead of freelancing. Reggie Hearn has been very quite since his big game versus Central Connecticut. I’d like to see either Hearn or Alex Marcotullio start to hit some three point shots and give the Wildcats another realistic scoring threat from behind the arc that teams need to respect. Will that happen on Sunday? It’s hard to say as the consistency hasn’t been there for those two guys yet this year. However, I do think NU will do enough to win this game. I predict: Northwestern, 77 Penn State, 70
Tuesday, December 27, 2011
Wildcats Open Big Ten at Two Time Defending Champion Ohio State
This is a very tough game for Northwestern to have to open the Big Ten season with this year. However, it does also present a significant opportunity. If Northwestern were to win the game, and I know that’s a big if, they would basically have to play just average the rest of the season to ensure an NCAA Tournament bid. Obviously, pulling off an upset of the #2 team in the nation which features multiple preseason All-Big Ten and All-American picks isn’t the easy way into the NCAA Tournament, but its worth noting the possibility.
Ohio State’s roster is so full of talent that it is almost ridiculous to expect anybody in the Big Ten to beat them. Preseason National Player of the Year Jared Sullinger headlines the OSU front court which also features athletic forward Deshaun Thomas who has stepped up his game this season especially in the contests which Sullinger sat out with an injured back. The Ohio State backcourt features two players listed amongst the top-25 nationally in the preseason in guards Aaron Kraft and William Buford. Kraft is the defensive stopper who while not a great shooter (30% from three) does tend to impact the game on defense in getting steals and handling the ball very well with a nearly 3-to-1 assist to turnover ratio. Buford is more of scoring threat at 15.8 ppg and making 37% of his threes. He’s also a nice athlete that can get to the hoop when he needs to do so. These two will present a major challenge for NU’s backcourt of Dave Sobolewski and Reggie Hearn. If he’s closer to 100% look for more action from JerShon Cobb to at least try and even out the athletic skill battle.
NU’s front court seemingly is the their strong point with Drew Crawford and John Shurna, but when you stack it up against Sullinger and Thomas it looks more average. Obviously, neither Shurna nor Crawford will battle Sullinger one on one. That’ll be the job of Luka Mirkovic and Davide Curletti who I actually think played Sullinger about as well as they could have last year, but the result was still 20 points and 18 rebounds for Sullinger when the teams met in the Big Ten Tournament. Those 20 points were mostly on free throws, though as Sullinger only made two field goals. Nevertheless, if NU can’t keep Sulinger and Thomas at least somewhat off the glass they can’t win unless they shoot a ridiculous percentage from three point range. To do that Shurna needs to have a big game and he also has to do a good job containing the athletic Thomas and not committing fouls.
Last year Northwestern used mostly a switching man to man defense versus Ohio State. However, I think last year’s Buckeyes were better shooters. I could see NU be successful with the 1-3-1 zone this year. It’ll clog the paint and may slow the game down. NU has to slow this game way down compared to the Creighton game which at times was a little too fast. I suspect NU will do this and that’ll help them for about 30 minutes before Ohio State pulls away. I predict: Ohio State, 63 Northwestern, 50
Ohio State’s roster is so full of talent that it is almost ridiculous to expect anybody in the Big Ten to beat them. Preseason National Player of the Year Jared Sullinger headlines the OSU front court which also features athletic forward Deshaun Thomas who has stepped up his game this season especially in the contests which Sullinger sat out with an injured back. The Ohio State backcourt features two players listed amongst the top-25 nationally in the preseason in guards Aaron Kraft and William Buford. Kraft is the defensive stopper who while not a great shooter (30% from three) does tend to impact the game on defense in getting steals and handling the ball very well with a nearly 3-to-1 assist to turnover ratio. Buford is more of scoring threat at 15.8 ppg and making 37% of his threes. He’s also a nice athlete that can get to the hoop when he needs to do so. These two will present a major challenge for NU’s backcourt of Dave Sobolewski and Reggie Hearn. If he’s closer to 100% look for more action from JerShon Cobb to at least try and even out the athletic skill battle.
NU’s front court seemingly is the their strong point with Drew Crawford and John Shurna, but when you stack it up against Sullinger and Thomas it looks more average. Obviously, neither Shurna nor Crawford will battle Sullinger one on one. That’ll be the job of Luka Mirkovic and Davide Curletti who I actually think played Sullinger about as well as they could have last year, but the result was still 20 points and 18 rebounds for Sullinger when the teams met in the Big Ten Tournament. Those 20 points were mostly on free throws, though as Sullinger only made two field goals. Nevertheless, if NU can’t keep Sulinger and Thomas at least somewhat off the glass they can’t win unless they shoot a ridiculous percentage from three point range. To do that Shurna needs to have a big game and he also has to do a good job containing the athletic Thomas and not committing fouls.
Last year Northwestern used mostly a switching man to man defense versus Ohio State. However, I think last year’s Buckeyes were better shooters. I could see NU be successful with the 1-3-1 zone this year. It’ll clog the paint and may slow the game down. NU has to slow this game way down compared to the Creighton game which at times was a little too fast. I suspect NU will do this and that’ll help them for about 30 minutes before Ohio State pulls away. I predict: Ohio State, 63 Northwestern, 50
Thursday, December 22, 2011
Close Counts in Horseshoes, Hand Grenades, but Not Basketball
This wasn’t an awful game, but the fact is that playing the way they’d played tonight Northwestern is NOT an NCAA Tournament team. They’re a good team, they’re a 20-win team, but they aren’t an NCAA Tournament team. To be an NCAA Tournament team you need to beat other NCAA Tournament competition from leagues that aren’t one bid leagues. Thus far Northwestern hasn’t done so. Right now I think Northwestern will be back in the NIT to once again. To get beyond that point a couple things need to happen. The most obvious is Northwestern cannot be so dependent on Drew Crawford and John Shurna. If Crawford hadn’t had the game of his life tonight scoring 34 points (the most ever by a Creighton opponent) this would have been the Baylor game all over again. Shurna scored 18 points, but the fact is Creighton did an outstanding job defending him in NU’s offense. A good number of Shurna’s points came from scoring on out of bounds plays.
I think the key player for NU is JerShon Cobb. The natural talent is there for him to score points because while he’s not a great shooter he has the ability to get to the hoop and he’s a good enough free throw shooter to make shots if he gets fouled. The problem is that he doesn’t seem fully healthy from his injured hip and concussion and he still needs to find a way to get somewhat more consistent with his outside shooting in order to create a few more driving lanes. Reggie Hearn has been something of an option as an outside shooter, but I’m afraid his struggles tonight against Creighton might be a portent of the struggles he’ll have against the top-6 teams in the Big Ten.
The major overall issue for Northwestern is defense. The 1-3-1 was okay tonight, but he eventually Creighton started hitting shots against it. The man-to-man was flat out bad as the Blue Jays guards were able to enter the ball into the post and get Doug McDermott any shot he wanted from about a foot away from the basket. I’m very worried about how successful Northwestern will be against teams like Ohio State with Jared Sullinger or Illinois with Myers Leonard if they can’t deny those guys the ball in the post. Perhaps the saving grace is that Creighton is a better shooting team than Illinois or Ohio State, but I can’t be one hundred certain of that because teams have a history of going crazy versus NU from three.
Rebounding is also obviously and issue as NU got outrebounded by 10 tonight. Now, I don’t expect NU to outrebound everybody or really anybody, but I think NU needs to prevent teams for getting second chance shots. I lost count of the number of times that Creighton got a second or third look and cashed in often times for three.
It’s a little frustrating to be at this point right now because I know I started to buy into a lot of the tournament hype. The problem I think is that Northwestern isn’t getting any better. I actually think they played better defense at the start of the year in the Charleston Classic than they have in the last three games. Maybe that is simply because those teams were worse than the teams NU has played the last three games, but I have trouble believing Tulsa is worse than Eastern Illinois. Bottom line, work has to be done for NU to make the Big Dance. The good news is that the Big Ten is strong enough plenty of chances for quality wins exist, the bad news is the Big Ten is strong enough that if things don’t get better Northwestern will once again finish with 7 or 8 league wins and be right back where they ended last year. The NIT is better than nothing, but it’s tremendously frustrating to have the NCAA Tournament within sight, but constantly trip and fall before reaching the finish line.
I think the key player for NU is JerShon Cobb. The natural talent is there for him to score points because while he’s not a great shooter he has the ability to get to the hoop and he’s a good enough free throw shooter to make shots if he gets fouled. The problem is that he doesn’t seem fully healthy from his injured hip and concussion and he still needs to find a way to get somewhat more consistent with his outside shooting in order to create a few more driving lanes. Reggie Hearn has been something of an option as an outside shooter, but I’m afraid his struggles tonight against Creighton might be a portent of the struggles he’ll have against the top-6 teams in the Big Ten.
The major overall issue for Northwestern is defense. The 1-3-1 was okay tonight, but he eventually Creighton started hitting shots against it. The man-to-man was flat out bad as the Blue Jays guards were able to enter the ball into the post and get Doug McDermott any shot he wanted from about a foot away from the basket. I’m very worried about how successful Northwestern will be against teams like Ohio State with Jared Sullinger or Illinois with Myers Leonard if they can’t deny those guys the ball in the post. Perhaps the saving grace is that Creighton is a better shooting team than Illinois or Ohio State, but I can’t be one hundred certain of that because teams have a history of going crazy versus NU from three.
Rebounding is also obviously and issue as NU got outrebounded by 10 tonight. Now, I don’t expect NU to outrebound everybody or really anybody, but I think NU needs to prevent teams for getting second chance shots. I lost count of the number of times that Creighton got a second or third look and cashed in often times for three.
It’s a little frustrating to be at this point right now because I know I started to buy into a lot of the tournament hype. The problem I think is that Northwestern isn’t getting any better. I actually think they played better defense at the start of the year in the Charleston Classic than they have in the last three games. Maybe that is simply because those teams were worse than the teams NU has played the last three games, but I have trouble believing Tulsa is worse than Eastern Illinois. Bottom line, work has to be done for NU to make the Big Dance. The good news is that the Big Ten is strong enough plenty of chances for quality wins exist, the bad news is the Big Ten is strong enough that if things don’t get better Northwestern will once again finish with 7 or 8 league wins and be right back where they ended last year. The NIT is better than nothing, but it’s tremendously frustrating to have the NCAA Tournament within sight, but constantly trip and fall before reaching the finish line.
Wednesday, December 21, 2011
Northwestern @ Creighton: My Prediction
I don’t know why this game gets an entirely separate post for a prediction, but it does. I suppose one could say it is due to the importance of this game, but I don’t want to start putting too much emphasis on any one contest as we saw the possible disappointment of that with the Baylor game. Still, this is an important game. A win tomorrow night will put Northwestern in a great position for a successful NCAA Tournament run. However, such a win will be tough to get. Not only does Creighton field a pretty good team, but they’ll have a Big Ten-like home court advantage with 17,000 people expected at the CenturyLink Center. The fact is that Northwestern didn’t excel on the road last season in Big Ten play has me a bit nervous. Still, if Northwestern is going to make the tournament they need to play well on the road in the Big Ten so why not establish that ability vs Creighton?
Looking at Creighton, they’re a fast paced, score a ton of points, play average defense type of team. That’s fairly similar to Northwestern, though, I’d say Northwestern can be better on defense just based on the unpredictability of using the 1-3-1 zone. Also, while we can’t say Luka Mirkovic is a superstar, he does give Northwestern the biggest player on the court. That counts for something on defense and on the glass if Luka brings an attitude of aggression to the court.
The numbers say Creighton is a better offensive team than Northwestern and Creighton forward Doug McDermott is playing out of his mind. He’s the nation’s second leading scorer and makes 57% of his threes! Basically, he’s John Shurna last year before Shurna’s ankle injury. I know Northwestern is going to present more of a challenge for McDermott than the Jays’ previous opponents, but I’m still worried about him and his offensively talented teammates.
I expect a fast paced up and down style game. I’m a little worried NU won’t have as much of an advantage as they might in some non-conference games because this is the second year in a row NU has played Creighton and it is the third year in a row Greg McDermott has coached against NU having guided an Iowa State team NU beat two years ago. Without a doubt this game will be high scoring. The team that shoots better will probably win it and though I totally hope I’m wrong, Creighton does average more made threes than NU and I think Creighton has the advantage playing in Omaha. I predict: Creighton, 87 Northwestern, 82*
*I predicted NU to beat Baylor so clearly I can be wrong.
Looking at Creighton, they’re a fast paced, score a ton of points, play average defense type of team. That’s fairly similar to Northwestern, though, I’d say Northwestern can be better on defense just based on the unpredictability of using the 1-3-1 zone. Also, while we can’t say Luka Mirkovic is a superstar, he does give Northwestern the biggest player on the court. That counts for something on defense and on the glass if Luka brings an attitude of aggression to the court.
The numbers say Creighton is a better offensive team than Northwestern and Creighton forward Doug McDermott is playing out of his mind. He’s the nation’s second leading scorer and makes 57% of his threes! Basically, he’s John Shurna last year before Shurna’s ankle injury. I know Northwestern is going to present more of a challenge for McDermott than the Jays’ previous opponents, but I’m still worried about him and his offensively talented teammates.
I expect a fast paced up and down style game. I’m a little worried NU won’t have as much of an advantage as they might in some non-conference games because this is the second year in a row NU has played Creighton and it is the third year in a row Greg McDermott has coached against NU having guided an Iowa State team NU beat two years ago. Without a doubt this game will be high scoring. The team that shoots better will probably win it and though I totally hope I’m wrong, Creighton does average more made threes than NU and I think Creighton has the advantage playing in Omaha. I predict: Creighton, 87 Northwestern, 82*
*I predicted NU to beat Baylor so clearly I can be wrong.
Sunday, December 18, 2011
Wildcats Finish 3 Games in 4 Days Stretch at 3-0
Okay, everyone can relax now. John Shurna still knows how to make three pointers. After an abysmal performance against Central Connecticut State, Shurna rebounded just over 24 hours later today to score 32 points total and make 9-of-12 threes. The performance left him one made three short of the Big Ten record for made threes in a game and officially tied for the NU record (NU did have Kenneth “Dion” Lee hit 10 threes in a game but NU voided Lee’s record when he was involved with a gambling scandal). Perhaps the most impressive thing about Shurna’s day was he clearly came into the game still confident even after his poor game yesterday. Shurna took shots early and although he missed his first, once he caught fire he seemed unstoppable. I feel like the only reason he didn’t hit a 10th three was that he didn’t get another shot. He also dished out 5 assists and found a number of teammates for open looks which helped the Wildcats make 54.2% of their shots.
Really, it seems like NU has a number of players who can step up and make big shots. Yesterday’s hero Reggie Hearn only attempted one shot (and missed) but Shurna got scoring support from Luka Mirkovic, Drew Crawford, and Dave Sobolewski who all scored in double figures.
Mirkovic is a player who we all agree can be frustrating, but he’s also critically important to Northwestern’s success. Today, Luka played one of his best games scoring 18 points, grabbing 10 rebounds, and dishing out 7 assists. Yes, the competition from Eastern Illinois wasn’t spectacular, but Luka has the potential to play at a high level. He just somehow needs to find consistency. Can he do that in next 20-some games of his career when he hasn’t in three-plus years? I don’t know, but I’m holding out hope he can. You never really know what is going to cause someone to change their outlook and approach and I think we all agree Luka’s biggest issues are in his head. Yes, he’s not Jared Sullinger, but he’s still a Big Ten center. Somewhere along the way between now and the final game of his career in purple maybe he’ll realize that.
Drew Crawford is another player who NU needs to get consistent and unlike Mirkovic it seems Crawford has made it to a point in his career where he can be a consistent threat to score the basketball and help run offense even if his three point shot isn’t falling. Today despite making just one three, he scored 14 points and provide 6 assists against 0 turnovers. He also stuffed the stat sheet with 3 steals, 3 blocks, and 7 rebounds.
Another NU player who consistently plays well is guard Dave Sobolewski. Taking over for Juice Thompson is not an easy task, but so far Sobolewski has been up to the task. Today he scored 12 points and tabulated 3 assists while only turning the ball over once.
The biggest issues I leave this game with are related to defense and free throw shooting. With all the shooters Northwestern has they should be a good free throw shooting team. Therefore, I’m hoping they’ll step up that aspect of their game very soon. The bigger concern has to be defense. Northwestern has success with using the 1-3-1, but they can’t become overly reliant on that defense. Early in the year NU’s man-to-man was somewhat better, but it seemed to slack at bit recently. Against Baylor it was talent issue and perhaps the last couple days it was simply exhaustion. Nonetheless, the way NU plays man-to-man needs to be better quickly because the ‘Cats have two tough road games in the next 10 days, but those tough games also make for great opportunities. As I wrote a couple days ago, change may be a process and not an event, but at some point in that process one needs to take advantage of the chances the events along that process present.
Really, it seems like NU has a number of players who can step up and make big shots. Yesterday’s hero Reggie Hearn only attempted one shot (and missed) but Shurna got scoring support from Luka Mirkovic, Drew Crawford, and Dave Sobolewski who all scored in double figures.
Mirkovic is a player who we all agree can be frustrating, but he’s also critically important to Northwestern’s success. Today, Luka played one of his best games scoring 18 points, grabbing 10 rebounds, and dishing out 7 assists. Yes, the competition from Eastern Illinois wasn’t spectacular, but Luka has the potential to play at a high level. He just somehow needs to find consistency. Can he do that in next 20-some games of his career when he hasn’t in three-plus years? I don’t know, but I’m holding out hope he can. You never really know what is going to cause someone to change their outlook and approach and I think we all agree Luka’s biggest issues are in his head. Yes, he’s not Jared Sullinger, but he’s still a Big Ten center. Somewhere along the way between now and the final game of his career in purple maybe he’ll realize that.
Drew Crawford is another player who NU needs to get consistent and unlike Mirkovic it seems Crawford has made it to a point in his career where he can be a consistent threat to score the basketball and help run offense even if his three point shot isn’t falling. Today despite making just one three, he scored 14 points and provide 6 assists against 0 turnovers. He also stuffed the stat sheet with 3 steals, 3 blocks, and 7 rebounds.
Another NU player who consistently plays well is guard Dave Sobolewski. Taking over for Juice Thompson is not an easy task, but so far Sobolewski has been up to the task. Today he scored 12 points and tabulated 3 assists while only turning the ball over once.
The biggest issues I leave this game with are related to defense and free throw shooting. With all the shooters Northwestern has they should be a good free throw shooting team. Therefore, I’m hoping they’ll step up that aspect of their game very soon. The bigger concern has to be defense. Northwestern has success with using the 1-3-1, but they can’t become overly reliant on that defense. Early in the year NU’s man-to-man was somewhat better, but it seemed to slack at bit recently. Against Baylor it was talent issue and perhaps the last couple days it was simply exhaustion. Nonetheless, the way NU plays man-to-man needs to be better quickly because the ‘Cats have two tough road games in the next 10 days, but those tough games also make for great opportunities. As I wrote a couple days ago, change may be a process and not an event, but at some point in that process one needs to take advantage of the chances the events along that process present.
Thursday, December 15, 2011
Northwestern Starts Busy Stretch With Easy “W”
This game was pretty much what we expected. Texas Southern struggled on offense and NU used a balanced attack which put four players into double figures to cruise to an 81-51 win. I think NU fans had to be impressed with the athletic skill shown by NU tonight as Drew Crawford had two dunks (one off an ally-op pass from John Shurna), Shurna put down a dunk, and Reggie Hearn slammed one home as well. Those dunks came off of fast breaks which NU created due to getting some steals using their athletic skill. Overall, it was a good day for the ‘Cats and while I won’t say this erases the Baylor loss, at least that’s not the last thing that happened for NU.
One of the guys who certainly needed to rebound from the Baylor game was Luka Mirkovic. Luka’s play tonight still won’t get him listed amongst college basketball’s elite centers, but he was far more solid than he was versus Baylor. Was Baylor much better than Texas Southern? For sure. But getting good play from Luka is so key for NU that I’m thankful whenever he plays well. Tonight, I was thankful to see Luka demonstrate skill as a passer with five assists, though, I wish he’d have scored a bit more.
NU’s leading scorer was John Shurna who certainly stepped up his game in the second half as did JerShon Cobb. Shurna’s 20 points and 5-of-7 made threes were a nice bounce back from the Baylor disaster. Cobb finished with 10 points and looked really rusty early on in the first game back from a concussion. In the second half, though, he seemed to relax and let the game come to him a bit more. As a result, he ended up hitting some open shots and looking more comfortable on the floor. He’s a big player for NU especially while Alex Marcotullio battles a foot injury. At some point I’d like to see Marcotullio and Cobb both healthy at the same time for NU, but it seems as though that hasn’t happened at all in the last year and a half.
I think when people talk about this game and look at the stats they’ll wonder how NU could hit 13 threes in this game and not even make five versus Baylor. Obviously part of the answer is who the ‘Cats were playing, but it’s still good to see NU once again show the three point touch. I really liked seeing Dave Sobolewski hit the high-point of his young career with five made three pointers. Sobolewski was 5-of-8 shooting for the night with all the attempts from three point range.
NU’s other double figure scorer was Drew Crawford with 17 points. Perhaps even more impressive than his points, Drew had 5 assists and 0 turnovers and recorded two steals.
NU only gets one day off now before playing a decent Central Connecticut State team. I’m excited to see NU play that game because it should provide an increased competition level from tonight and will give us a little more insight into what this NU team really has. Of course, we might have to wait until the tough road tests in late December against Creighton and Ohio State to really know.
One of the guys who certainly needed to rebound from the Baylor game was Luka Mirkovic. Luka’s play tonight still won’t get him listed amongst college basketball’s elite centers, but he was far more solid than he was versus Baylor. Was Baylor much better than Texas Southern? For sure. But getting good play from Luka is so key for NU that I’m thankful whenever he plays well. Tonight, I was thankful to see Luka demonstrate skill as a passer with five assists, though, I wish he’d have scored a bit more.
NU’s leading scorer was John Shurna who certainly stepped up his game in the second half as did JerShon Cobb. Shurna’s 20 points and 5-of-7 made threes were a nice bounce back from the Baylor disaster. Cobb finished with 10 points and looked really rusty early on in the first game back from a concussion. In the second half, though, he seemed to relax and let the game come to him a bit more. As a result, he ended up hitting some open shots and looking more comfortable on the floor. He’s a big player for NU especially while Alex Marcotullio battles a foot injury. At some point I’d like to see Marcotullio and Cobb both healthy at the same time for NU, but it seems as though that hasn’t happened at all in the last year and a half.
I think when people talk about this game and look at the stats they’ll wonder how NU could hit 13 threes in this game and not even make five versus Baylor. Obviously part of the answer is who the ‘Cats were playing, but it’s still good to see NU once again show the three point touch. I really liked seeing Dave Sobolewski hit the high-point of his young career with five made three pointers. Sobolewski was 5-of-8 shooting for the night with all the attempts from three point range.
NU’s other double figure scorer was Drew Crawford with 17 points. Perhaps even more impressive than his points, Drew had 5 assists and 0 turnovers and recorded two steals.
NU only gets one day off now before playing a decent Central Connecticut State team. I’m excited to see NU play that game because it should provide an increased competition level from tonight and will give us a little more insight into what this NU team really has. Of course, we might have to wait until the tough road tests in late December against Creighton and Ohio State to really know.
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