Northwestern extended the contract of men’s basketball coach Bill Carmody today. It was reported in the fall that NU and Carmody were working towards an extension, but I think many thought Northwestern athletic director Jim Phillips would wait until the end of the current season before letting Carmody sign on the dotted line for what many suspect is a multi-year extension that will keep Carmody at NU at least through the graduation of the current freshmen class.
While I don’t agree with the Trib’s assessment that most NU fans are less than thrilled to see Carmody stay, I will say that Bill Carmody seems to have become the most divisive NU athletic figure since Gary Barnett in the weeks after his departure for Colorado. That sounds impressive, but the truth is everyone could agree that Kevin O’Neill’s attitude and outlook wasn’t a good fit for NU and that as a great of people as Bill Foster and Ricky Byrdsong were they weren’t good enough coaches to win at NU at the time. On the other hand, Carmody has won just enough games to make a sound argument he’s best NU basketball coach since Pearl Harbor was bombed, but has lost just enough to make others see him as a one trick pony whose offensive genius is overshadowed by his inability to coach defense and recruit skilled big men. People also get on Carmody because he likes red wine and shows emotion on the sidelines. Personally, I prefer white wine, but I couldn’t care less that Carmody prefers red. Also, the most successful coach in the history of college basketball, Mr. Robert Montgomery Knight, was the king of sideline antics. Personally, I go to bed each night hoping that Carmody will be even half as entertaining as Knight. Honestly, if Bill Carmody picked up a chair and threw it when NU was getting homered at home by the Big Ten refs the media coverage it would generate would probably be the best thing ever to happen to Northwestern basketball. Heck, ESPN would probably even send Knight to Evanston to interview Carmody, but I digress. Let’s get back to the point.
The issue is whether or not Carmody’s extension was the right move. Carmody’s winning percentage of .472 at NU isn’t great, but it is .112 points higher than the highest percentage of the four coaches who preceded him. Carmody’s two postseason appearances in 10 years aren’t great, but it’s better than most of Northwestern basketball history. He has directed some the most successful seasons in NU basketball history. In addition, Carmody’s recruiting has picked up and he has constructed a nucleus of talent which looks to be NU’s strongest in some time. Even with the graduation of Juice Thompson at the end of this season, NU should be strong next year with John Shurna as a senior, Drew Crawford as a junior, and a very mature sophomore in JerShon Cobb. Add a decent point guard to those three and NU might even be better than this season.
On the other hand, Carmody’s winning percentage is still below .500. He’s also only gotten to the postseason twice in 10 years and while it is Northwestern, those numbers are certainly not numbers which meet the goals Dr. Phillips or most fans have for the program (at least I hope not). Also, though, NU’s recruiting has improved, I don’t see any players who are truly difference makers or program changing recruits. The players on the roster might come together to make the NCAA Tournament, but there is clearly a small margin for error with these guys and Shurna’s injury and Kevin Coble’s departure might have pushed NU outside of that margin for error. Speaking of Coble, it sounds in many ways like he and his family were pretty selfish and motivated more by their self interests than the NU basketball program’s but one has to wonder what exactly happened between Carmody and Coble family that both sides couldn’t stick it out for one more season with so much at stake (e.g. NU in the tourney, Kevin’s shot at pro ball, Carmody’s legacy as a coach). Also, even with some recruiting improvements this year’s NU roster (supposedly one of the best ever) has one point guard and one true center. That’s not good for a team that is supposed to compete in the Big Ten.
As I hope you can see from above, I see both sides on Bill Carmody. I honestly think he’s a pretty good coach, especially on offense. Any basketball coach/player with a good eye can see that NU’s offense is very complex and hard to guard when run with good players. That’s why Carmody’s mentor Pete Carill was able to get work as an NBA assistant, the Princeton offensive schemes are 100% solid. Unfortunately, Carmody has some limitations which can’t be corrected by even the most brilliant offense. Some aren’t his fault, for example I can’t think of another major college program that conveys more of a sense of “un-big timeness” than NU. That goes for game day (can we please cut out the audio only pregame highlights no one can hear and the improv stuff that just seems dumb?) and the program’s facilities both for game play and practice. I’m not sure any coach could overcome those and break through with top-50 recruits regularly at NU. Some of Carmody’s limitations are his own fault, though. For example, the fact NU has games they simply don’t show up for has to somewhat be traced back to the coach. I’m not saying Carmody isn’t trying to fire his teams up, but clearly the psychological side of coaching isn’t a Bill Carmody strength. Carmody’s teams’ refusal to play defense is also a problem that he has to take the blame for.
If you’ve read this far you probably expect me to give you a bottom line on Bill Carmody’s extension, but I’m finding it nearly impossible to do so. No matter how much people may want to do so, Bill Carmody can’t be evaluated on the same scale as other Big Ten coaches. I honestly believe if NU could play any defense at all and had a center with a more well-rounded game than Luka Mirkovic the Wildcats would probably be in the top-25 right now. But isn’t it Carmody’s fault they don’t? Well, not if you consider he didn’t build Welsh-Ryan Arena or refuse to spend money to upgrade it any time in the last 30 years. If it had been up to me I probably wouldn’t have extended Carmody’s contract until this season was over, but just because Carmody is back doesn’t mean all his assistants will be. Maybe this offseason is finally the year NU gets a defensive expert. If I were Phillips that would have been one of my criteria for Carmody’s retention if NU doesn’t make the Big Dance. The sad fact is NU basketball has problems that won’t be solved with a coaching change. If NU really wants to be serious about competing for Big Ten Titles in basketball they’ll make an effort to ensure Welsh-Ryan and the rest of the facilities and amenities for NU’s program and its fans are up to Big Ten standards. Maybe then we can truly evaluate Bill Carmody (or any coach) on the same scale as his counterparts.
Monday, January 10, 2011
Sunday, January 9, 2011
Wildcats Survive “Defenseless” Second Half to Halt Losing Skid
Luka Mirkovic posted a career high 20 points and added 12 rebounds Sunday night.Northwestern’s now into the victory column in Big Ten play and John Shurna showed the ability to overcome his injury in posting 24 points and 5 assists to lead the Wildcats to victory. Those facts both have to bring a smile to the face of NU fans and Wildcat Head Coach Bill Carmody.
The biggest positive from this game from my point of view actually wasn’t Shurna. John was great, but the play of Luka Mirkovic really stood out for me as a key to NU’s success on the offensive end of the court. Luka finished the game with 20 points on 7-of-11 shooting and 12 rebounds (5-offenseive 7-defensive). NU’s early efforts to get the ball inside to Luka against the smaller Indiana big men set a tone for the night which resulted in NU controlling the paint early (NU had 20 first half points in the paint) and getting a number of easy baskets so NU didn’t have to become overly dependent on threes. I’ve noticed now for a couple years that Luka actually has very good moves in the post. The problem has been his struggles in finishing at the hoop. Luka has probably led the Big Ten in missed point blank shots the last couple years. Tonight, though, when Luka got to the hoop he was able to use his size and finish. A couple times he not only finished, but finished and drew the foul as well. On Wednesday night Northwestern plays an Iowa team that like Indiana has big men who Luka is going to have a height advantage against. Luka hasn’t traditionally been a great road player, but if NU gets him involved early it could once again set the tone for the game.
A couple other Wildcats who stepped up in tonight’s win were Michael “Juice” Thompson and Mike Capocci. I thought Mike and Mike both in their own ways were key contributors to NU’s win. Juice scored 16 points and added a career high-tying 8 assists. Capocci came off the bench and along with Alex Marcotullio added some much needed energy for the Wildcats. In 14 minutes Capocci scored 8 points, grabbed 3 rebounds, blocked a shot and made 4-of-5 free throws. Marcotullio had 5 rebounds, 4 assists (only 1 TO) and scored 6 points. I would love to see Marcotullio get a little more consistent with his three point jump shot, but right now he is still a valuable player off the bench because he is a good defender and excellent passer who rarely puts the ball in the wrong place.
The Wildcats finished today 10-of-20 from three point range making the minimum 10 threes coach Bill Carmody says they need to hit in order to be successful. Shurna made 4-of-5, but credit also goes to freshman JerShon Cobb who made 3-of-4 and continues to look more and more comfortable as the season moves along. NU also got two huge threes from Drew Crawford when Indiana was making their comeback. Crawford still is struggling with inconsistency, but it was good to see him show up in the clutch.
As can be seen above most of NU’s positives were on offense. Defense is another matter. I will say that I was very impressed with the way Northwestern played defense in the first half. They hustled and tipped balls and did a great job fighting through screens. Then in the second half the regular Northwestern defense showed up. Indiana was able to get whatever shot they wanted in the paint and went from shooting 36% in the first half to 54.5% and 53 points in the second half. I think Northwestern simply needs to get more physical on defense, especially inside. NU has some strong athletic guys like Mike Capocci and Drew Crawford who I think could make life tough for the opposition in the switching man-to-man if they were a little more physical when guys try to drive on them. Improving the defense will be key as the season continues. Today the Wildcats were good enough (mostly in the first half) in the matchup/switching man-to-man that never resorted to the 1-3-1. That’s to me part of the reason why a good three point shooting Indiana team only hit six threes in the game.
I think if NU can duplicate their first half defense and play offense like they did for this entire game they still have a chance to win 10 conference games despite their poor start. The key will be beating weaker teams even on the road. That has to start Wednesday when the ‘Cats face the Hawkeyes in Iowa City.
Saturday, January 8, 2011
Indiana @ Northwestern: Trying to Find Answers to a Myriad of Questions
Northwestern’s performance (or lack of performance) at Illinois on Thursday left fans shaking their heads and asking a number of questions. Where did that great three point shooting team go? Where did the disciplined offense disappear to? What happened to the turnover causing 1-3-1 zone? Why does Drew Crawford often disappear? Why can’t Luka Mirkovic make a layup? Why do the Wildcats constantly switch whenever the offense screens? What would have happened if Kevin Coble hadn’t quit and Kyle Rowley hadn’t transferred? Should John Shurna be playing with his injured ankle? Is this team still listening to Bill Carmody? Will Carmody keep his job if NU doesn’t post a few wins in the next two weeks? Those are just a few of the questions fans were asking. They aren’t the only ones. Sunday’s game against Indiana isn’t going to answer them all, but the game could answer a few or present more.
Having watched the Illinois game in person I think the questions foremost on my mind are about Shurna’s ankle and whether the team is still focused on implementing Carmody’s game plan. John at Chicago College Basketball offered his opinion that Shurna should sit and I’m leaning towards agreement. Northwestern’s offense is predicated on making hard cuts and making open shots. Shurna’s injury makes it difficult for him to cut and to push off on his shot. I also think because Shurna’s shot release is so strange he has a very small margin for error and his ability to push off is forcing misses because it has pushed Shurna’s release outside that margin for error. No question exists that Shurna is a great player, but he’s not a great player while hurt. Putting him on the bench will allow him time to heal and will hopefully force other players to step up because they will now know that Shurna isn’t going to be used in the game.
The bigger question, though, is the team’s focus on the game plan. Early in the year Carmody said his team didn’t have any knuckle heads, but against both Michigan State and Illinois the Wildcats disobeyed their coach’s game plan and sure looked like knuckle heads. For a long stretch against Michigan State NU stopped running their offense and instead forced bad shots. As it turned out that was a huge stretch because once NU returned to doing what they were coached to do they got a number of open shots and almost won the game. If they’d done so all night they would have beaten MSU as Penn State did today. Against Illinois, Bill Carmody specifically said he told his players not to help in the post, that allowing Mike Tisdale to score two points was worth it to not give up “Sunday shots” to McCamey and Richardson yet on the first two possessions of the game NU guards left McCamey and Richardson to help on Tisdale and the two Illini guards hit wide open threes. That’s bad because it means either NU’s players have horrible basketball IQs (which as I’ve said before is a must have when you’re less physically talented as a team) or the players are just blatantly ignoring their coach because they think they know better which is knuckle head behavior. Either way it looks bad.
The good news, though, is Indiana has their own struggles, especially away from home. The Hoosiers haven’t won a road game all year and like NU are 0-3 in the Big Ten. This is a big game in the sense that neither squad wants to go 0-4. Northwestern will probably try to play their matchup zone/switching man-to-man first because every IU regular with exception of Jeremiah Rivers shoots at least 32% from three point range. If point guard Jordan Hulls and his nearly 3-to-1 assist to turnover ratio can find passing lanes the Hoosiers could pick the 1-3-1 apart. Therefore, I suspect NU will play the matchup, but they better listen to their coach and be willing to give up some inside points and not leave Hulls (51% 3PT), Christian Watford (39% 3PT), and the rest of the hot shooting Hoosiers open on the perimeter. NU also desperately needs to play some defense without switching. If they switch large athletic Hoosiers like Watford and Maurice Creek will be very poor matchups for a number of Wildcats. I’m also really worried about how easily Verdell Jones III will be able to get to the basket if Luka Mirkovic ends up guarding him on a switch.
I find it really hard to predict this game. In part because I don’t know Shurna’s status and in part because I think a large part of this game for Northwestern is going to be mental. How do Michael “Juice” Thompson and Drew Crawford respond to their poor play? Do they sulk and point fingers or do they respond with authority? Watch Crawford early. He usually reveals what type of game he is going to have fairly quickly. If NU can pull themselves together I think they win simply because Indiana is a pretty poor road team. If they can’t I think the book of questions people have about this program gets an extra chapter or two added. I look for Northwestern to actually slow down their offense a bit in order to resist the temptation to force shots and get solid looks for Crawford and to try and incorporate Mirkovic into the game more early which generally makes him play better. I predict: Northwestern, 71 Indiana, 68
Having watched the Illinois game in person I think the questions foremost on my mind are about Shurna’s ankle and whether the team is still focused on implementing Carmody’s game plan. John at Chicago College Basketball offered his opinion that Shurna should sit and I’m leaning towards agreement. Northwestern’s offense is predicated on making hard cuts and making open shots. Shurna’s injury makes it difficult for him to cut and to push off on his shot. I also think because Shurna’s shot release is so strange he has a very small margin for error and his ability to push off is forcing misses because it has pushed Shurna’s release outside that margin for error. No question exists that Shurna is a great player, but he’s not a great player while hurt. Putting him on the bench will allow him time to heal and will hopefully force other players to step up because they will now know that Shurna isn’t going to be used in the game.
The bigger question, though, is the team’s focus on the game plan. Early in the year Carmody said his team didn’t have any knuckle heads, but against both Michigan State and Illinois the Wildcats disobeyed their coach’s game plan and sure looked like knuckle heads. For a long stretch against Michigan State NU stopped running their offense and instead forced bad shots. As it turned out that was a huge stretch because once NU returned to doing what they were coached to do they got a number of open shots and almost won the game. If they’d done so all night they would have beaten MSU as Penn State did today. Against Illinois, Bill Carmody specifically said he told his players not to help in the post, that allowing Mike Tisdale to score two points was worth it to not give up “Sunday shots” to McCamey and Richardson yet on the first two possessions of the game NU guards left McCamey and Richardson to help on Tisdale and the two Illini guards hit wide open threes. That’s bad because it means either NU’s players have horrible basketball IQs (which as I’ve said before is a must have when you’re less physically talented as a team) or the players are just blatantly ignoring their coach because they think they know better which is knuckle head behavior. Either way it looks bad.
The good news, though, is Indiana has their own struggles, especially away from home. The Hoosiers haven’t won a road game all year and like NU are 0-3 in the Big Ten. This is a big game in the sense that neither squad wants to go 0-4. Northwestern will probably try to play their matchup zone/switching man-to-man first because every IU regular with exception of Jeremiah Rivers shoots at least 32% from three point range. If point guard Jordan Hulls and his nearly 3-to-1 assist to turnover ratio can find passing lanes the Hoosiers could pick the 1-3-1 apart. Therefore, I suspect NU will play the matchup, but they better listen to their coach and be willing to give up some inside points and not leave Hulls (51% 3PT), Christian Watford (39% 3PT), and the rest of the hot shooting Hoosiers open on the perimeter. NU also desperately needs to play some defense without switching. If they switch large athletic Hoosiers like Watford and Maurice Creek will be very poor matchups for a number of Wildcats. I’m also really worried about how easily Verdell Jones III will be able to get to the basket if Luka Mirkovic ends up guarding him on a switch.
I find it really hard to predict this game. In part because I don’t know Shurna’s status and in part because I think a large part of this game for Northwestern is going to be mental. How do Michael “Juice” Thompson and Drew Crawford respond to their poor play? Do they sulk and point fingers or do they respond with authority? Watch Crawford early. He usually reveals what type of game he is going to have fairly quickly. If NU can pull themselves together I think they win simply because Indiana is a pretty poor road team. If they can’t I think the book of questions people have about this program gets an extra chapter or two added. I look for Northwestern to actually slow down their offense a bit in order to resist the temptation to force shots and get solid looks for Crawford and to try and incorporate Mirkovic into the game more early which generally makes him play better. I predict: Northwestern, 71 Indiana, 68
Friday, January 7, 2011
Hammer Time! Illinois Lights up NU Defense with School Record Numbers
Let me start this post by saying I made a road trip to Champaign, Illinois for this contest. Even if I hadn’t, I’d consider NU’s play unacceptable for a team which wants to compete for the NCAA Tournament and a top-5 finish in the Big Ten, but having actually seen the game in person, I have to admit I feel an even deeper frustration with the current state of Northwestern basketball than I might have from merely viewing the contest on television. I think that’s the advantage of seeing games in person. When watching a contest on TV you’re stuck with what the director and producer of the broadcast show you and what the commentators choose to talk about. When you see a game in person you’re free to form your own opinions about what you see. After tonight, I’ve formed some new opinions on where Northwestern’s basketball program stands and I have to admit many of them aren’t all that positive.
The trip did have some positive so I’ll mention those first. I went to the game with some friends and we had good time. I especially enjoyed our pregame meal at La Bamba in Champaign. My chicken burrito was excellent and the medium Pepsi was just the right about of beverage. That pretty much covers the good elements of the night as far as I can recall. Also, JerShon Cobb played a decent game. He shows flashes of being a highly skilled player. Cobb’s inconsistency from three point range is a concern, but he’s hardly the only Wildcat with that problem.
Illinois played a good game tonight. They came out hot from three point range and thanks to some very good inside play (especially inside passing) from Mike Tisdale and Mike Davis they also found their way into the heart of NU’s zone for easy baskets. The game was essentially over after four possessions when Illinois made three consecutive threes and then Luka Mirkovic fouled Mike Tisdale to setup a three point play. To some extent I wasn’t surprised with Illinois scoring points as NU isn’t a strong defensive team, but the ease with which Illinois scored was ridiculous—Northwestern essentially looked like the JV team trying to scrimmage the Varsity squad. Every player on the Illinois roster seemed more skilled, physical and in possession of a better basketball IQ than Northwestern’s players. I can accept NU being out skilled. That’s the nature of where NU’s recruiting is right now, but if you’re going to be at a skill disadvantage you better be tougher and smarter—that’s how Wisconsin wins. Northwestern wasn’t and isn’t. The Wildcats let Illinois push them around all night. The best example was when Mike Tisdale backed down Davide Curletti with so much force I thought Tisdale might not knock the wind out of Curletti. Also, Northwestern never really seemed to make much effort on defense to really guard the Illini players closely. Richardson and McCamey had a number of wide open shots in the run to start the game while the majority of NU’s looks were contested. If nothing else I’d like to see demonstrate a little more toughness and intensity when they play.
Part of the reason for those shots was also the way Illinois passed the ball. It seemed the Ilini had an assist on nearly every shot and Bruce Weber had schooled his team on exactly how to attack Northwestern’s 1-3-1 zone as Illinois scored on the first four possessions in which NU tried to play their standard comeback/turnover causing defense. No question exists that when players execute coaches look good, but you have to give some credit to Weber and his staff since they were clearly well prepared for this game. I thought it was telling on the postgame interview that Weber made the point of saying how now after having coached against Northwestern for the better part of a decade there aren’t a lot of surprises and it has become much easier to game plan for NU. Of course that’s true of any conference opponent, but given the fact much of the success of the Princeton Offense and 1-3-1 zone are predicated on their uniqueness it has to be a concern. Has Northwestern become to predictable to the rest of the Big Ten? In a post earlier fellow NU blog Lake the Posts the point was made that Bill Carmody has fattened his record against suspect non-conference foes. That may be true, but it’s true for all coaches. Every BCS school plays a number of cupcake teams. My fear isn’t that Carmody’s record looks good because he beats Mount St. Mary’s, my fear is that people look at Carmody’s teams winning in the Big Ten/ACC Challenge 4 of the last 5 years and use those wins as a measuring stick of NU’s competiveness against good teams. Sure, those also count as top-50/100 wins, but the important top-50/100 wins come in conference games and NU is now 0-3 in such contests versus Big Ten opponents and based on their effort tonight I’m not looking for a ton of success in the rematches down the road with Michigan State or Illinois unless the attitude NU takes drastically changes. Anybody who reads this blog regularly knows I’ve been more positive about Bill Carmody than many NU fans, but what I saw tonight was just so unacceptable for what was supposed to be an NCAA Tournament that I can say for sure this is without a doubt, for me at least, the worst I’ve felt about NU basketball since the end of the 1-17 last place in the Big Ten 07-08 season. The good news is I think even Carmody himself would admit that this team isn’t currently playing to their ability level and as head coach it’s his job to make them do so. He certainly doesn’t want to be embarrassed like he was tonight again, if it’s this frustrating for fans to watch such a game, it has to be many times more so for the coach because he knows fans, administrators, and media are looking to evaluate him based on each game.
Yes, John Shurna is hurt and I liked that Carmody sat him much of the second half, but NCAA teams aren’t one person teams. Purdue lost their best player for the season and they’re ranked #10 in the nation. Last year Wisconsin lost Jon Leuer for a portion of the Big Ten season and posted several big wins because Jordan Taylor stepped up to fill that void. Shurna’s injury is a great chance to see Drew Crawford and Juice Thompson step up in a big way, but that hasn’t really happed. Crawford had a decent game vs Michigan State and Juice played three good minutes vs the Spartans, but overall those two guys haven’t elevated their play. In fact, they’ve almost disappeared. Crawford was a non-factor tonight (as he was vs Purdue) and Thompson seemed clearly frustrated (one of the things that might not have been evident on TV). I don’t blame him really, but I’m not sure it’s a good idea to show such frustration when your opponents can see it and then know they’ve got you on the ropes.
Speaking of on the ropes, that’s where NU’s season is right now. At 9-4 (0-3 Big Ten) NU desperately needs to post a win versus Indiana at home on Sunday. If they can’t it might not be healthy for any of us NU fanatics to venture back to Welsh-Ryan or turn on the Big Ten Network.
The trip did have some positive so I’ll mention those first. I went to the game with some friends and we had good time. I especially enjoyed our pregame meal at La Bamba in Champaign. My chicken burrito was excellent and the medium Pepsi was just the right about of beverage. That pretty much covers the good elements of the night as far as I can recall. Also, JerShon Cobb played a decent game. He shows flashes of being a highly skilled player. Cobb’s inconsistency from three point range is a concern, but he’s hardly the only Wildcat with that problem.
Illinois played a good game tonight. They came out hot from three point range and thanks to some very good inside play (especially inside passing) from Mike Tisdale and Mike Davis they also found their way into the heart of NU’s zone for easy baskets. The game was essentially over after four possessions when Illinois made three consecutive threes and then Luka Mirkovic fouled Mike Tisdale to setup a three point play. To some extent I wasn’t surprised with Illinois scoring points as NU isn’t a strong defensive team, but the ease with which Illinois scored was ridiculous—Northwestern essentially looked like the JV team trying to scrimmage the Varsity squad. Every player on the Illinois roster seemed more skilled, physical and in possession of a better basketball IQ than Northwestern’s players. I can accept NU being out skilled. That’s the nature of where NU’s recruiting is right now, but if you’re going to be at a skill disadvantage you better be tougher and smarter—that’s how Wisconsin wins. Northwestern wasn’t and isn’t. The Wildcats let Illinois push them around all night. The best example was when Mike Tisdale backed down Davide Curletti with so much force I thought Tisdale might not knock the wind out of Curletti. Also, Northwestern never really seemed to make much effort on defense to really guard the Illini players closely. Richardson and McCamey had a number of wide open shots in the run to start the game while the majority of NU’s looks were contested. If nothing else I’d like to see demonstrate a little more toughness and intensity when they play.
Part of the reason for those shots was also the way Illinois passed the ball. It seemed the Ilini had an assist on nearly every shot and Bruce Weber had schooled his team on exactly how to attack Northwestern’s 1-3-1 zone as Illinois scored on the first four possessions in which NU tried to play their standard comeback/turnover causing defense. No question exists that when players execute coaches look good, but you have to give some credit to Weber and his staff since they were clearly well prepared for this game. I thought it was telling on the postgame interview that Weber made the point of saying how now after having coached against Northwestern for the better part of a decade there aren’t a lot of surprises and it has become much easier to game plan for NU. Of course that’s true of any conference opponent, but given the fact much of the success of the Princeton Offense and 1-3-1 zone are predicated on their uniqueness it has to be a concern. Has Northwestern become to predictable to the rest of the Big Ten? In a post earlier fellow NU blog Lake the Posts the point was made that Bill Carmody has fattened his record against suspect non-conference foes. That may be true, but it’s true for all coaches. Every BCS school plays a number of cupcake teams. My fear isn’t that Carmody’s record looks good because he beats Mount St. Mary’s, my fear is that people look at Carmody’s teams winning in the Big Ten/ACC Challenge 4 of the last 5 years and use those wins as a measuring stick of NU’s competiveness against good teams. Sure, those also count as top-50/100 wins, but the important top-50/100 wins come in conference games and NU is now 0-3 in such contests versus Big Ten opponents and based on their effort tonight I’m not looking for a ton of success in the rematches down the road with Michigan State or Illinois unless the attitude NU takes drastically changes. Anybody who reads this blog regularly knows I’ve been more positive about Bill Carmody than many NU fans, but what I saw tonight was just so unacceptable for what was supposed to be an NCAA Tournament that I can say for sure this is without a doubt, for me at least, the worst I’ve felt about NU basketball since the end of the 1-17 last place in the Big Ten 07-08 season. The good news is I think even Carmody himself would admit that this team isn’t currently playing to their ability level and as head coach it’s his job to make them do so. He certainly doesn’t want to be embarrassed like he was tonight again, if it’s this frustrating for fans to watch such a game, it has to be many times more so for the coach because he knows fans, administrators, and media are looking to evaluate him based on each game.
Yes, John Shurna is hurt and I liked that Carmody sat him much of the second half, but NCAA teams aren’t one person teams. Purdue lost their best player for the season and they’re ranked #10 in the nation. Last year Wisconsin lost Jon Leuer for a portion of the Big Ten season and posted several big wins because Jordan Taylor stepped up to fill that void. Shurna’s injury is a great chance to see Drew Crawford and Juice Thompson step up in a big way, but that hasn’t really happed. Crawford had a decent game vs Michigan State and Juice played three good minutes vs the Spartans, but overall those two guys haven’t elevated their play. In fact, they’ve almost disappeared. Crawford was a non-factor tonight (as he was vs Purdue) and Thompson seemed clearly frustrated (one of the things that might not have been evident on TV). I don’t blame him really, but I’m not sure it’s a good idea to show such frustration when your opponents can see it and then know they’ve got you on the ropes.
Speaking of on the ropes, that’s where NU’s season is right now. At 9-4 (0-3 Big Ten) NU desperately needs to post a win versus Indiana at home on Sunday. If they can’t it might not be healthy for any of us NU fanatics to venture back to Welsh-Ryan or turn on the Big Ten Network.
Wednesday, January 5, 2011
Northwestern vs Illinois: Game Preview
Illinois enters Thursday night’s game with a 12-3 overall record while Northwestern enters with a 9-3 record. To many of those watching the pregame show on ESPN2 it might seem they’re in for a matchup of two similar teams, but the truth is it seems these two squads are moving in opposite directions. After Illinois lost a big showdown non-conference match with Missouri they rallied to post two straight Big Ten wins versus Iowa and Wisconsin. After Northwestern lost a big showdown non-conference game with St. John’s they beat Mount St. Mary’s but in doing so saw star player John Shurna go down with a debilitating ankle injury and then promptly lost two Big Ten games to Purdue and Illinois. Now, Illinois has a chance to start a serious run at the Big Ten title with a victory while Northwestern hopes simply to tread water in the Big Ten instead of drowning.
Why is Illinois 2-0 in the league and Northwestern 0-2? Some people would say an easier schedule, which might be a factor, but I think a lot of has to due more with depth on the Illini roster and that is the first key factor in looking at Thursday’s game. The Illini athletic department game notes list a starting five for Thursday of McCamey, Richardson, Cole, Davis, and Tisdale, but in other contests Coach Bruce Weber has started Brandon Paul and Jereme Richmond in addition to using Tyler Griffey and Meyers Leonard a lot off the bench. Northwestern’s game notes list a starting five of Thompson, Cobb, Crawford, Shurna, and Mirkovic. The only other Wildcat to start a game has been Alex Marcotullio, but he wouldn’t have started if not for JerShon Cobb beginning the year with a hip injury. What does this information tell us? That Illini essentially have seven “true” starters (Paul and Richmond were both Illinois High School Player of the Year) and two regular reserves that might start for a number of other teams (I certainly would consider Meyers Leonard if the Illini wanted to trade him for Mirkovic). On ther other hand, Northwestern really only has the five starters and often times Mirkovic is simply filling space because he’s 6-11. Making matters worse for NU, the lack of depth forced a clearly injured John Shurna to play 39 minutes on Monday against Michigan State. I know people will say Shurna wouldn’t play if he couldn’t help the team, but watching him grimace in pain as he hobbled to a 1-of-11 shooting night and was leaped over by Draymond Green for the game’s critical rebound I felt about as discouraged as I ever have for a single player. I’ve often said NU isn’t tough enough to win in the Big Ten and I still believe that, but that wasn’t Shurna’s problem. On Monday night John showed more toughness than any NU player I’ve ever seen, but that toughness wasn’t enough to overcome a serious physical aliment that probably would keep most athletes on the bench. Getting back to Thursday, I guarantee if Mike Davis were as hurt as Shurna that even if Davis wanted to play Illinois would start Richmond or Griffey and not think twice. That’s problem. Bill Carmody knows Mike Capocci is such a non-threat that he’d rather see Shurna play hurt.
Obviously depth isn’t an area where Northwestern is going to be able to out dual the Illini, but two other key areas exist that might give NU a chance. The first is three point shooting. Both these teams are in the top-20 nationally in team three point percentage. Shurna is NU’s leader, but the ‘Cats have a collection of other competent shooters as well and I’m looking for Michael “Juice” Thompson to step up. Illinois as a team makes 42.3% of their threes led by Demetri McCamey at 52.2%, but I actually think D.J. Richardson (45.5% 3PT) has the best looking release on his shot of any Big Ten player. Another solid shooter for Illinois to watch out for is Bill Cole who at 6-9 can release over shorter small forwards. If Northwestern is to beat Illinois they don’t have to out shoot the Illini percentage wise from three, but they have to make more. If I were NU I would try to get up at least 30 threes with the goal of making at least 14. Last year NU set a Big Ten record vs Illinois with 47 three point attempts.
Another key area where NU needs to outplay Illinois is ball security. As a team Illinois is impressive with 258 assists against 197 turnovers. However, that’s all McCamey. D.J. Richardson is only other Illinois player with an assist to turnover ratio better than 1.4-to-1. Last year NU beat Illinois in Evanston because they extended their defense and made McCamey give up the ball early. This forced one of the other guys to try to initiate the offense and they often seemed to panic and force a shot. A similar strategy could give NU an edge. It’ll be a gamble to use the 1-3-1 zone early because Illinois can hit threes, but as one of my all-time favorite television characters would say, “sometimes, you have to roll a hard six.”
The last key area of the game will be inside play. Last year Illinois used a solid inside game to beat NU at Assembly Hall, but the Illini needed to put out an APB for Mike Tisdale in Evanston and the Wildcats got away with a W. Luka Mirkovic has to be psychical and play a good game versus Tisdale because if NU has to go to Davide Curletti it won’t be pretty against the 7-1 Tisdale. He’ll just be too big for Curletti.
The on paper matchup in this game is actually closer than I expected, but the paper doesn’t account for John Shurna’s injury or Illinois having a home court advantage. I hate excuses, but the truth is that Northwestern probably beats Michigan State with Shurna healthy. His injury is just another in a long line of bad breaks for Northwestern that as far as I remember started with the Rex Walters led transfermania of the early 90s and has continued through this season with the Kevin Coble exit and now Shurna's ankle injury late in a meaningless game when the Wildcats had almost a 30 point advantage. Eventually I think NU’s luck is bound to turn, but I don’t think it’s going to be an immediate occurrence. I predict: Illinois, 76 Northwestern, 62
Why is Illinois 2-0 in the league and Northwestern 0-2? Some people would say an easier schedule, which might be a factor, but I think a lot of has to due more with depth on the Illini roster and that is the first key factor in looking at Thursday’s game. The Illini athletic department game notes list a starting five for Thursday of McCamey, Richardson, Cole, Davis, and Tisdale, but in other contests Coach Bruce Weber has started Brandon Paul and Jereme Richmond in addition to using Tyler Griffey and Meyers Leonard a lot off the bench. Northwestern’s game notes list a starting five of Thompson, Cobb, Crawford, Shurna, and Mirkovic. The only other Wildcat to start a game has been Alex Marcotullio, but he wouldn’t have started if not for JerShon Cobb beginning the year with a hip injury. What does this information tell us? That Illini essentially have seven “true” starters (Paul and Richmond were both Illinois High School Player of the Year) and two regular reserves that might start for a number of other teams (I certainly would consider Meyers Leonard if the Illini wanted to trade him for Mirkovic). On ther other hand, Northwestern really only has the five starters and often times Mirkovic is simply filling space because he’s 6-11. Making matters worse for NU, the lack of depth forced a clearly injured John Shurna to play 39 minutes on Monday against Michigan State. I know people will say Shurna wouldn’t play if he couldn’t help the team, but watching him grimace in pain as he hobbled to a 1-of-11 shooting night and was leaped over by Draymond Green for the game’s critical rebound I felt about as discouraged as I ever have for a single player. I’ve often said NU isn’t tough enough to win in the Big Ten and I still believe that, but that wasn’t Shurna’s problem. On Monday night John showed more toughness than any NU player I’ve ever seen, but that toughness wasn’t enough to overcome a serious physical aliment that probably would keep most athletes on the bench. Getting back to Thursday, I guarantee if Mike Davis were as hurt as Shurna that even if Davis wanted to play Illinois would start Richmond or Griffey and not think twice. That’s problem. Bill Carmody knows Mike Capocci is such a non-threat that he’d rather see Shurna play hurt.
Obviously depth isn’t an area where Northwestern is going to be able to out dual the Illini, but two other key areas exist that might give NU a chance. The first is three point shooting. Both these teams are in the top-20 nationally in team three point percentage. Shurna is NU’s leader, but the ‘Cats have a collection of other competent shooters as well and I’m looking for Michael “Juice” Thompson to step up. Illinois as a team makes 42.3% of their threes led by Demetri McCamey at 52.2%, but I actually think D.J. Richardson (45.5% 3PT) has the best looking release on his shot of any Big Ten player. Another solid shooter for Illinois to watch out for is Bill Cole who at 6-9 can release over shorter small forwards. If Northwestern is to beat Illinois they don’t have to out shoot the Illini percentage wise from three, but they have to make more. If I were NU I would try to get up at least 30 threes with the goal of making at least 14. Last year NU set a Big Ten record vs Illinois with 47 three point attempts.
Another key area where NU needs to outplay Illinois is ball security. As a team Illinois is impressive with 258 assists against 197 turnovers. However, that’s all McCamey. D.J. Richardson is only other Illinois player with an assist to turnover ratio better than 1.4-to-1. Last year NU beat Illinois in Evanston because they extended their defense and made McCamey give up the ball early. This forced one of the other guys to try to initiate the offense and they often seemed to panic and force a shot. A similar strategy could give NU an edge. It’ll be a gamble to use the 1-3-1 zone early because Illinois can hit threes, but as one of my all-time favorite television characters would say, “sometimes, you have to roll a hard six.”
The last key area of the game will be inside play. Last year Illinois used a solid inside game to beat NU at Assembly Hall, but the Illini needed to put out an APB for Mike Tisdale in Evanston and the Wildcats got away with a W. Luka Mirkovic has to be psychical and play a good game versus Tisdale because if NU has to go to Davide Curletti it won’t be pretty against the 7-1 Tisdale. He’ll just be too big for Curletti.
The on paper matchup in this game is actually closer than I expected, but the paper doesn’t account for John Shurna’s injury or Illinois having a home court advantage. I hate excuses, but the truth is that Northwestern probably beats Michigan State with Shurna healthy. His injury is just another in a long line of bad breaks for Northwestern that as far as I remember started with the Rex Walters led transfermania of the early 90s and has continued through this season with the Kevin Coble exit and now Shurna's ankle injury late in a meaningless game when the Wildcats had almost a 30 point advantage. Eventually I think NU’s luck is bound to turn, but I don’t think it’s going to be an immediate occurrence. I predict: Illinois, 76 Northwestern, 62
Monday, January 3, 2011
Wildcat Comeback Falls Short and Masks Bigger Problems
People who didn’t see this game are going to think Northwestern played a good game in losing to Michigan State 65-62, but to be honest the Wildcats did not play well, especially on offense. A lot of those offensive problems probably relate to John Shurna’s injury (which obviously was a total freak event), but still NU’s lack of execution in their offense, especially in the second half, can’t all because Shurna is hurt.
Looking specifically at NU’s offensive problems, Coach Bill Carmody highlighted NU’s first half successes and second half problems in his postgame interview with WGN. Those second half problems, as Carmody pointed out, and was clear to really anybody watching, came from the fact that the Wildcats basically stopped running their offense. On many occasions NU’s players basically stood around the perimeter, didn’t cut towards the hoop at all, and then somebody tried to go one-on-one with a Spartan to make a shot. As much as I think NU has upgraded their athletic skill with Drew Crawford and JerShon Cobb, the Spartans still maintained a significant advantage in one-on-one plays. NU also suffered a major disadvantage when they tried to go one-on-one because of Shurna’s injured ankle. Shurna’s size advantage can negate athletic advantages, but because of his injury he really can’t make smooth moves and get good shots. In contrast to NU’s attempt to play macho-ball and go one-on-one in the second half, the Wildcats in the first half did a great job running their offense and getting shots. They didn’t shoot a great percentage, but the number of open shots they got speaks well to what NU can do when they execute their offense correctly.
As far as production overall on offense, NU got a decent game from Drew Crawford. It wasn’t one of his best, but it was better than his last couple. He made 3-of-5 threes and scored 17 points, got 8 rebounds, and recorded 3 blocks. However, he was one of the Wildcats who forced several bad shots when tried to go macho against the Spartans. Still, Crawford played a better game than Juice Thompson who scored just 3 points until he awoke in the game’s final 3 minutes where he scored 9 points to lead NU’s comeback. However, his overall game still wasn’t the strong “Juice-like” game that we all have come to expect from him. I want to quickly point out that Luka Mirkovic went 3-of-9 from the floor for 6 points and grabbed 4 rebounds. That’s better on the boards and he actually battled more than his 4 rebounds showed, however, his inability to make point-blank layups is driving me nuts so I can’t imagine what it’s doing to his coaches. How can a guy who is 6-11 not be able to make a layup? He’s 70% of the way to the basket just by standing!
NU’s comeback was really good, but I just can’t get over some of the end of the game mistakes they seemed to make after cutting the lead to 63-62. Not only did NU waste an inexplicable 17 seconds before they fouled MSU when down just one point, but then they let Draymond Green grab an offensive rebound that essentially gave them the win. What really upsets me about the rebound is that Green went over Shurna on the block. Shurna showed the whole game that he couldn’t get any elevation when he jumped. He made 1-of-11 from the field and even looked in pain from the free throw line. Why then did Bill Carmody have Shurna on the block? I know it’s the spot Shurna usually goes to in NU’s normal alignment, but given Shurna is obviously hurt I don’t think he should have been on the block. Put Capocci in front of Green or Crawford or Curletti or Cobb or even Luka. Anybody except an injured Shurna would haven given NU a better chance. Overall I thought NU’s coaches had a good plan which fell apart because of poor execution by the players, but that was a coaching gaffe.
The worst part about this loss is I think NU could have won with a healthy Shurna, but he looks so hurt that I’m starting to wonder what advantage NU actually gets from playing him. I know theoretically teams have to still guard him, but watching him hobble around and miss shots I’m not sure that’s an advantage. I’d almost rather have NU sit Shurna and lose a couple more games if it meant he could come back totally healthy in a couple weeks. I don’t know if that’s even possible, but with this loss I think NU’s essentially out of the NCAA Tournament unless they make a run in the Big Ten Tournament and I’d hate to still have Shurna hurt then.
Looking specifically at NU’s offensive problems, Coach Bill Carmody highlighted NU’s first half successes and second half problems in his postgame interview with WGN. Those second half problems, as Carmody pointed out, and was clear to really anybody watching, came from the fact that the Wildcats basically stopped running their offense. On many occasions NU’s players basically stood around the perimeter, didn’t cut towards the hoop at all, and then somebody tried to go one-on-one with a Spartan to make a shot. As much as I think NU has upgraded their athletic skill with Drew Crawford and JerShon Cobb, the Spartans still maintained a significant advantage in one-on-one plays. NU also suffered a major disadvantage when they tried to go one-on-one because of Shurna’s injured ankle. Shurna’s size advantage can negate athletic advantages, but because of his injury he really can’t make smooth moves and get good shots. In contrast to NU’s attempt to play macho-ball and go one-on-one in the second half, the Wildcats in the first half did a great job running their offense and getting shots. They didn’t shoot a great percentage, but the number of open shots they got speaks well to what NU can do when they execute their offense correctly.
As far as production overall on offense, NU got a decent game from Drew Crawford. It wasn’t one of his best, but it was better than his last couple. He made 3-of-5 threes and scored 17 points, got 8 rebounds, and recorded 3 blocks. However, he was one of the Wildcats who forced several bad shots when tried to go macho against the Spartans. Still, Crawford played a better game than Juice Thompson who scored just 3 points until he awoke in the game’s final 3 minutes where he scored 9 points to lead NU’s comeback. However, his overall game still wasn’t the strong “Juice-like” game that we all have come to expect from him. I want to quickly point out that Luka Mirkovic went 3-of-9 from the floor for 6 points and grabbed 4 rebounds. That’s better on the boards and he actually battled more than his 4 rebounds showed, however, his inability to make point-blank layups is driving me nuts so I can’t imagine what it’s doing to his coaches. How can a guy who is 6-11 not be able to make a layup? He’s 70% of the way to the basket just by standing!
NU’s comeback was really good, but I just can’t get over some of the end of the game mistakes they seemed to make after cutting the lead to 63-62. Not only did NU waste an inexplicable 17 seconds before they fouled MSU when down just one point, but then they let Draymond Green grab an offensive rebound that essentially gave them the win. What really upsets me about the rebound is that Green went over Shurna on the block. Shurna showed the whole game that he couldn’t get any elevation when he jumped. He made 1-of-11 from the field and even looked in pain from the free throw line. Why then did Bill Carmody have Shurna on the block? I know it’s the spot Shurna usually goes to in NU’s normal alignment, but given Shurna is obviously hurt I don’t think he should have been on the block. Put Capocci in front of Green or Crawford or Curletti or Cobb or even Luka. Anybody except an injured Shurna would haven given NU a better chance. Overall I thought NU’s coaches had a good plan which fell apart because of poor execution by the players, but that was a coaching gaffe.
The worst part about this loss is I think NU could have won with a healthy Shurna, but he looks so hurt that I’m starting to wonder what advantage NU actually gets from playing him. I know theoretically teams have to still guard him, but watching him hobble around and miss shots I’m not sure that’s an advantage. I’d almost rather have NU sit Shurna and lose a couple more games if it meant he could come back totally healthy in a couple weeks. I don’t know if that’s even possible, but with this loss I think NU’s essentially out of the NCAA Tournament unless they make a run in the Big Ten Tournament and I’d hate to still have Shurna hurt then.
Sunday, January 2, 2011
Northwestern vs Michigan State: A Line in the Sand Game
I don’t believe in the concept of a “must win” game. Until modern sports revert to same rules as the ancient Mayans in their ball games where the losers are killed no such thing as a “must win” game exists. However, there are such things as important games and the men’s basketball contest between Northwestern and Michigan State is a very important game for Northwestern. With the Big Ten season opening loss to Purdue and three road contests out of the next four after they host the Spartans, Northwestern could realistically start the Big Ten season 1-5, if they do so no chance exists in my mind of them recovering and making the NCAA Tournament (barring a miracle run in Indy at the BTT). However, if the Wildcats somehow pull a 3-3 or, being overly optimistic, a 4-2 record in their first six games the Wildcats will in my mind be on their way to the NCAA Tournament. That’s why for me this game is the proverbial line in the sand for the Wildcats. If they can rally back from their loss at Purdue and beat a ranked MSU squad, they have a great chance to get momentum started and I could see them using that momentum to beat an Illinois team that looked good, but not great today vs Wisconsin and certainly to beat mediocre teams from Indiana and Iowa. On the other hand, if the Wildcats lose to MSU, I think Illinois will run them out of the gym and while they might beat Indiana, I won’t have great optimism about any road contest for NU if the ball starts rolling in a negative direction.
So, how can NU draw that line in the sand and beat the Spartans? Well it won’t be easy. Bill Carmody has beaten Michigan State just twice in his career as NU’s head coach. However, the good news is that Michigan State isn’t an overly complex team to defend. As any Big Ten fan knows Coach Tom Izzo’s team’s have a pretty basic road map they follow to success. Izzo’s teams always play great defense, hit the boards hard, hustle to beat teams down the court in transition, and are good passers. When NU has beat MSU, they’ve found weaknesses in at least a couple of those traits. For example, NU’s memorable 2009 win in East Lansing found the Wildcats forcing the Spartans into terrible passes versus the 1-3-1 and making enough shots MSU’s effort to beat NU down the court was fruitless. This year’s MSU team has drawn Izzo’s ire in regards to some issues related to their toughness and they have a 1-to-1 assist to turnover ratio. Now, I can make myself believe the Wildcats can play good enough defense to force the Spartans into turnovers. But can the Wildcats truly hang with MSU on the glass? Izzo said MSU was “a pretty boy jump shooting team” but forward Draymond Green still gets 8.9 rebounds a game. I somewhat question whether NU center Luka Mirkovic who got just one rebound vs Purdue’s JaJuan Johnson can attack the glass vs Green, Delvon Roe, Durrell Summers, and the rest of the super athletic Spartans. Obviously, it isn’t just Luka, but he’s the one I’m looking at the most. Sure, I said it was a line in the sand game for the whole team, but it’s an even bigger one for Luka in my mind. A lot of people went all chuckles the clown over his 16 points at Purdue, but one (1!) rebound from a guy the PA announces at 6-11 isn’t acceptable. He needs to be more of a factor or at least try to be more of a factor. Even if he gets five quick fouls he needs to at least demonstrate some level of toughness.
Aside from causing turnovers and getting rebounds NU obviously has to make shots. More specifically, they need to make three point shots. Even if Luka and Davide Curletti have good games on the glass I suspect that MSU will get some cheap put backs. With size like Garrick Sherman, Austin Thornton, and Adreian Payne that’s just going to happen. Therefore, NU needs to counter that first with turnovers, but secondly by making three point shots. Drew Crawford needs to have a much better day than he had against Purdue and John Shurna needs to either be a factor or realize he isn’t going to be one and give way to a healthy player. With as quick as MSU is we can’t have plays like on Friday where Shurna is trailing the play by ten feet as the ball gets into the front court. NU also needs shooting from JerShon Cobb and Alex Marcotullio. It’ll take a team effort to beat the Spartans and those two young men have it them to get hot from deep and the ‘Cats need to see it. Finally, the Wildcats need a much better game from Juice Thompson than they got vs Purdue. Michigan State will capitalize on turnovers with the quickness of Kalin Lucas and Korie Lucious so Juice can’t be committing five turnovers. He needs two or less and needs to score somewhere in the 18-24 point range. If that happens NU has a great chance.
Looking at the numbers I think between this and the Illinois game Thursday this is the game NU has the better chance to win. I also think that NU’s players know this is a huge game and while NU athletics hasn’t exactly been money in key games (see the football team in primetime contests) the Wildcats men’s basketball team did win a supposed “NCAA-Tournament elimination game” last year vs Illinois. It turns out that contest wasn’t what it was billed as, but NU thought it was at the time and they showed up and stood up (as did NU’s fans and I hope to see the same vs the Spartans). Therefore, I’m saying that ‘Cats get this one because they’ve done if before and if they don’t we could be in for a tough year. I predict: Northwestern, 79 Michigan State, 72
So, how can NU draw that line in the sand and beat the Spartans? Well it won’t be easy. Bill Carmody has beaten Michigan State just twice in his career as NU’s head coach. However, the good news is that Michigan State isn’t an overly complex team to defend. As any Big Ten fan knows Coach Tom Izzo’s team’s have a pretty basic road map they follow to success. Izzo’s teams always play great defense, hit the boards hard, hustle to beat teams down the court in transition, and are good passers. When NU has beat MSU, they’ve found weaknesses in at least a couple of those traits. For example, NU’s memorable 2009 win in East Lansing found the Wildcats forcing the Spartans into terrible passes versus the 1-3-1 and making enough shots MSU’s effort to beat NU down the court was fruitless. This year’s MSU team has drawn Izzo’s ire in regards to some issues related to their toughness and they have a 1-to-1 assist to turnover ratio. Now, I can make myself believe the Wildcats can play good enough defense to force the Spartans into turnovers. But can the Wildcats truly hang with MSU on the glass? Izzo said MSU was “a pretty boy jump shooting team” but forward Draymond Green still gets 8.9 rebounds a game. I somewhat question whether NU center Luka Mirkovic who got just one rebound vs Purdue’s JaJuan Johnson can attack the glass vs Green, Delvon Roe, Durrell Summers, and the rest of the super athletic Spartans. Obviously, it isn’t just Luka, but he’s the one I’m looking at the most. Sure, I said it was a line in the sand game for the whole team, but it’s an even bigger one for Luka in my mind. A lot of people went all chuckles the clown over his 16 points at Purdue, but one (1!) rebound from a guy the PA announces at 6-11 isn’t acceptable. He needs to be more of a factor or at least try to be more of a factor. Even if he gets five quick fouls he needs to at least demonstrate some level of toughness.
Aside from causing turnovers and getting rebounds NU obviously has to make shots. More specifically, they need to make three point shots. Even if Luka and Davide Curletti have good games on the glass I suspect that MSU will get some cheap put backs. With size like Garrick Sherman, Austin Thornton, and Adreian Payne that’s just going to happen. Therefore, NU needs to counter that first with turnovers, but secondly by making three point shots. Drew Crawford needs to have a much better day than he had against Purdue and John Shurna needs to either be a factor or realize he isn’t going to be one and give way to a healthy player. With as quick as MSU is we can’t have plays like on Friday where Shurna is trailing the play by ten feet as the ball gets into the front court. NU also needs shooting from JerShon Cobb and Alex Marcotullio. It’ll take a team effort to beat the Spartans and those two young men have it them to get hot from deep and the ‘Cats need to see it. Finally, the Wildcats need a much better game from Juice Thompson than they got vs Purdue. Michigan State will capitalize on turnovers with the quickness of Kalin Lucas and Korie Lucious so Juice can’t be committing five turnovers. He needs two or less and needs to score somewhere in the 18-24 point range. If that happens NU has a great chance.
Looking at the numbers I think between this and the Illinois game Thursday this is the game NU has the better chance to win. I also think that NU’s players know this is a huge game and while NU athletics hasn’t exactly been money in key games (see the football team in primetime contests) the Wildcats men’s basketball team did win a supposed “NCAA-Tournament elimination game” last year vs Illinois. It turns out that contest wasn’t what it was billed as, but NU thought it was at the time and they showed up and stood up (as did NU’s fans and I hope to see the same vs the Spartans). Therefore, I’m saying that ‘Cats get this one because they’ve done if before and if they don’t we could be in for a tough year. I predict: Northwestern, 79 Michigan State, 72
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