Tuesday, March 31, 2009

The Wildcat Roster Part 1: Drew Crawford

Here is some info on NU recruit Drew Crawford, I will have a similar write-up on Alex Marcotullo in the next week. At some point during the offseason, I will talk about all players on NU's roster both new and returning.

The sure signal that Northwestern’s recruiting efforts are improving is not the ranking of NU's recent recruits, though they are better, it is the schools the Wildcats are topping for their most recent additions. Last year, the Wildcats out recruited Louisville and DePaul for Luka Mirkovic and beat out Georgetown, Indiana, and Wisconsin for Kyle Rowley. This year the trend of NU beating out historic powers has continued with the signing of Drew Crawford. Crawford a 6-5 wing player from Naperville Central chose NU over Wake Forest, Oklahoma State, Loyola, and DePaul. Two of those teams were in the NCAA Tournament this year, and Wake Forest was ranked #1 early in 2009. In the past, NU wouldn’t have a pray of recruiting a kid who also received an offer from a team who held a #1 ranking during the season of that prospect’s senior year. A great deal of credit for Crawford’s recruitment goes to Tavaras Hardy, but we can’t ignore the fact Crawford told Illinois Prep Bulls Eye he felt most comfortable with Bill Carmody when comparing potential college head coaches. Clearly, Bill Carmody’s dry wit and intellectual basketball approach meshes well with the type of kids who want to attend Northwestern. Hopefully Crawford’s comfort with Hardy and Carmody will keep the young man relaxed as he enters NU with higher expectations than any NU recruit in recent memory.

Thankfully, aside from comfort with his new coaches, Crawford’s on and off the court performance indicate he will be ready to take on the challenge of leading NU into the NCAA Tournament. Crawford was named Illinois Player of the Year by the City/Suburban Hoops Report and writer Joe Henricksen makes sure to note how he impressed he was with Crawford’s maturity during their conversations. Henricksen also notes Crawford’s impressive numbers on the court as a reason to believe he will help NU instantly. As a senior at Naperville Central Crawford scored 24 ppg, pulled down 8.5 rebounds, and dished out 3 assists. It should also be noted, that according to all reports, Crawford is a very good passer who could have recorded higher assist numbers were it not critical to Central’s success that he score. Therefore, he should be able to play guard in the Princeton Offense. Aside from his ability to put points up, Crawford will help NU defensively. With his length, Drew might give NU the option of playing man-to-man defense depending on who else joins him on the floor. Also, he has the athletic ability to play either the top of the bottom of the 1-3-1 zone. Considering that Crawford will likely step in from Craig Moore, one might assume he will start games at the top of the zone, personally, though, I would love to see him play the bottom. Sometimes Michael Thompson is in position to contest three point shots, but simply gets shot over. At 6-5, and with great leaping ability, there aren’t that many guards who will be able to shoot over Crawford.

With the athletic ability discussed above, which allows him to get to the hoop on offense, and a pretty good outside shot, Crawford probably could start from day one. Whether he will or not probably depends on the vision Coach Carmody has for next year’s team. Does he want to start Jeremy Nash to try and establish defense early, or will Crawford’s multiple offensive skills move him ahead of the NU’s only senior guard. Personally, I like Nash’s role as it is, but if he improves enough offensively that teams have to guard him on the perimeter I can deal with him starting. Besides, if he does start, Crawford will provide an offensive spark off the bench which has been rare at Northwestern. Whatever his role, I expect Drew Crawford will be an instant contributor and fan favorite at Welsh-Ryan Arena come November of 2009.

Sunday, March 29, 2009

Position Group Evaluation Part 4: Coaching Staff

Position Group: Coaching Staff
Personnel Evaluated: Bill Carmody, Mitch Henderson, Tavaras Hardy, and Ivan Vujic
Grade: B+

Whenever one tries to evaluate a coaching staff they take on something of a challenge. As a fan or member of the media you are really only exposed to the work of a coaching staff during games. However, the majority of the work done by a coaching staff is actually done in practice and on the recruiting trail. Unfortunately, without having seen practices or sat in one recruiting visits evaluating those aspects are something of a projection. You look at game performance, apparent preparation from opponents, and player improvement to evaluate practice habits and you look at the players who are signed as recruits in order to evaluate recruiting. As far as recruiting goes, I am very pleased with the results of the work done by Bill Carmody and his staff, lead by Tavaras Hardy, this past year. NU’s two recruits for next season, Drew Crawford and Alex Marcotullio, seem to fit NU’s needs and seem to continue the recent trend of bringing in players who have been offered by other high level schools. They may not be top-100 recruits, but the fact Crawford was offered by Wake Forest and Marcotullio received interest from a number of schools even after an early commit to NU makes me fell good about the future. My major criticism in recruiting is the lack of recruiting news for the class of 2010. Last year at this time we already knew about Marcotullio’s commitment. Hopefully, Coach Hardy is out working hard and we will be getting news about a couple feature Wildcats soon. The class of 2010 is a very important one for NU’s future.

As far as on the court performance, including practice habits, many have said this was Bill Carmody’s best job at Northwestern. I certainly think he did a nice job this year, I find myself uncertain if I want to call this his best year. Certainly the record this year was better, but Carmody had a lot more to work with in achieving the record. The 2003-04 team which recovered from a rough non-conference season to go 8-8 in the Big Ten was a squad who won as many Big Ten games as year’s group with very limited means. Most notably, that team basically played six players. Carmody tried to by some time via starting Ivan Tolic until he knees locked up, but basically the Wildcat lineup featured five starters and Evan Seacat. Yes the 5-6 non-conference record that year was a disappointment, but part of the sign of good coaching is you can pull your team together and recover from adversity. Carmody did that impressively with limited means in 03-04 and again this year. The only time I thought NU didn’t recover well this season was when they lost to Michigan after the Illinois debacle. I am still at a loss to explain that loss and the other big blown leads. Those games were so well-planned and played for so long, yet they went south so quickly. NU did do a better job holding the lead at the end of the Iowa and Purdue games near the year’s conclusion, but staying aggressive with big leads will be an area of improvement to focus on next year.

I must say, I was very impressed with how they came back from those two losses with the victory over Ohio State. Considering the number of tough losses NU came back from this season, I can conclude the ‘Cats coaches got a lot of good work done in practice. NU’s game plan for the big wins against Michigan State and Purdue also speak well to the practice habits of the players and coaches. NU came out with a plan that seemed fully confuse the Spartans and Boilermakers on those days. Carmody should also get high marks for several other solid game plans. I was also very impressed with the adjustments made for the second game against Wisconsin.

One area where I was less impressed was how NU ended the season. While I understand the coaching staff probably deservers some blame for loss of the big leads in the Illinois and Purdue game, I think it was pretty clear that those losses were more a result of players folding under pressure. After all, NU had clearly showed before the Purdue game that they could make free throws, and they clearly showed before the Illinois game they could handle the press. Therefore, I have to assume they had been coached to do those things. However, under the pressure of those games, for reasons I will never understand, veteran players buckled and folded. I am not certain what the coaching staff could have done. They used timeouts like crazy in the Illinois game, but the team didn’t settled down. On the other hand, I think the coaching staff could have done more at the end of the season. It wasn’t just the fact NU lost the season’s 3 most important games, it was the seemingly lack of urgency from the players. How NU could come out so flat in those games is beyond me. Without having been in NU’s locker room I can’t say why the ‘Cats seemed so uninspired at the start of the year’s largest games. I just know that despite being close at the end, those games were lost early. Whether it was poor planning or nervous players, the problem should have been corrected. It will be critical next year that NU’s coaches get their guys up ready to play and confident in themselves every time. The Big Ten will be much improved and their might not be as much chance for NU to fall down by double-digits and comeback to win games. Overall, though, this was a great step forward for NU’s program the coaching staff deserves a lot of credit. If they can continue to bring in solid players, I think it is realistic to say NU could have four straight postseason appearances on the record when this year’s freshmen class graduates.

Friday, March 27, 2009

Position Group Evaluation Part 3: Centers

Position Group: Centers
Players Included: Kyle Rowley, Luka Mirkovic, Davide Curletti and Ivan Peljusic
Grade: C

Some might say I’m being a little tough on NU’s centers, but the fact is they were the position group which struggled the most this past season. Thankfully, they are NU’s youngest position group and seem to have the skills to improve next year. Kyle Rowley got the majority of the starts for the ‘Cats in 08-09, but it was the play of Luka Mirkovic which kept me from giving the centers a C- or D+. Mirkovic didn’t set the world on fire statistically, he averaged 3.9ppg and 3.2rpg, but he provided some skills at the center position which NU hasn’t seen in a long while. Most impressive to me was the fact Luka is an excellent passer from the high post. He recorded 40 assists against only 26 turnovers. Also, he pulled down 30 offensive rebounds which was second on the team. Luka seems to have a nose for the ball on missed shots. With a year of experience, I expect he will be an even better offensive rebounder next year. One area where I do have to offer some criticism on Mirkovic is shooting. At times he looked like he had a nice jump shot (4-for-10 from 3PT) and he even hit a three in the NIT game at Tulsa. However, overall Luka seemed reluctant to shoot. There were even times when he did shoot where you could tell he thought twice before doing so and as a result missed badly. NU needs a center to hit jump shots for the Princeton Offense to work and based on the players they have, it seems critical Luka become that guy before next November.

Kyle Rowley was NU’s main starter at center mostly due to his 7-0 280 pound size. Sadly, he didn’t often play like he was that big. My largest criticism was his 46-for-99 shooting. Almost all those shots were right around the rim, yet Rowley couldn’t finish half of them. A player with Rowley’s size should easily shoot 50% because they never shoot anything other than layups and they are bigger or at least as big as everybody they shoot against. Before next season starts, Rowley needs to work on finishing in the post. The keys I believe are from him to get quicker with his moves and lose some weight so he can get off the ground. There is no reason Rowley couldn’t play at 250 or 260. In fact, he’d probably be a better player if he did drop some weight as guys couldn’t jump in from behind and swat the ball away. Related to Rowley’s slow moves, I think he suffered from a lot of indecision. He recorded 38 turnovers and it seemed like 2/3rds of them were on travels. If he is to be a Big Ten starter, Rowley cannot commit unforced turnovers because he is thinking too much. After practicing all year, he has to know what to do with the ball. If he is that unsure, he ought to sit and watch players who do know what they are supposed to do with the ball.

NU’s other backup centers were Davide Curletti and Ivan Peljusic. Curletti started one game against Ohio State, but overall only played in 17 of NU’s 31 games. Peljusic played in 24 games with no starts. I think both these players have potential and honestly I would have liked to see more of them and less of Rowley once it became clear how overmatched Rowley seemed in the Big Ten. Curletti showed a good physical presence when he matched up against Ohio State in Evanston and looks potentially to have an outside jump shot. Peljusic is a player who brings an energy and enthusiasm to the court which NU sometimes lacks. His weakness is free throw shooting and turnovers, though, he did have more assists than turnovers for the year. If I had to guess at Bill Carmody’s reasoning for sticking with Rowley instead of Curletti and Peljusic, I’d say it probably had to do with Rowley’s legit seven foot size. Curletti is 6-9 and Peljusic 6-8, meaning both are a little undersized for Big Ten centers. Personally I think both make up for their lack of size with athletic skill, but if Carmody continues to go with Rowley, I hope Peljusic and Curletti get a look at the power forward position (I also hope Rowley starts finishing shots and not turning the ball over). NU could use additional backups for John Shurna and Kevin Coble, especially if Jeremy Nash ends up starting at shooting guard.

Tuesday, March 24, 2009

Position Group Evaluation Part 2: Forwards

Position Group: Forwards
Players Included: Kevin Coble, John Shurna, Jeff Ryan, Mike Capocci
Grade: B

Northwestern’s forward crew featured the Wildcats best overall player in Kevin Coble, however, other than Coble (who would get an A or A-) I don’t think I would give any other individual forward a grade higher than B-. Coble and John Shurna both started all 31 games for Northwestern. They finished first and third on the team in rebounding and first and fourth in scoring. Coble, of course, was the ‘Cats leading scorer with 15.5 ppg. In doing so, he had some spectacular games like the one at MSU or the home game against Ohio State. Also, at the end of the year Coble’s three point shooting picked up enough for him to finish at 39.5% from behind the arc, that was third on the team among Wildcat starters. If Coble improves to the low-mid 40s next year in thee point shooting, I think he could lead the Big Ten in scoring. Coble finished this year with 4.8 rpg, which as noted above, led the Wildcats. This is a feat which Coble will hopefully not repeat next year. Either Shurna or one of NU’s large centers needs to step up on the rebounding front and provide assistance to Kevin in this area. Another area where NU’s two lead forwards excelled was in blocks. Coble blocked 19 shots and Shurna 18. These were the highs for NU. Hopefully, both will block even more next year as the Wildcats certainly can use help in terms of post defense. Coble also gets high marks for tying for the team lead in steals with 41 and dishing out 76 assists against only 43 turnovers.

As a freshman Shurna gets high marks for leading the team in offensive rebounds, but he needs to become more aggressive when hitting the defensive boards. With his size and athletic skills, he is the type of player who should be able to pull down at least 5 rpg. Unfortunately, Shurna committed 38 turnovers and gave out only 32 assists. Also, the young freshman did not record many steals (14). However, my concern with NU’s front court defense was not the number of steals Shurna got, it was the number of times more athletic forwards were able to drive right by him and Coble and get to the hoop. Improving the defensive play of these two players will be a key for next season. Another key area for improvement will be Shurna’s three point shooting. Perhaps because of his odd release, Shurna is a very streaky shooter. He seems to either hit 4-of-6 or 1-of-6 in every game. With Craig Moore departed, Shurna needs to bring his percentage from beyond the arc up from 34.7% to around 40% if the Wildcats want to be as effective on offense next year as they were this year.

NU’s primary backups at the forward position were Jeff Ryan and Mike Capocci. However, since NU used a lot of three guard lineups with Jeremy Nash replacing either Shurna or Coble, Capocci didn’t really see much time. If I were to give Capocci an individual grade for the season I would probably mark him incomplete. He had a couple nice moments in games during the year, but more than anything I hope he emerges next year into a Jeremy Nash type role. As far as Jeff Ryan, I give him great credit for his defense in the upset win at Purdue. If he hadn’t contained Robbie Hummel, NU wouldn’t have won. That said, I was disappointed in Ryan’s offense. Before the Big Ten season started, I wrote Ryan’s play would be critical as he is one of NU’s best athletes. However, he never seemed to use his athletic skill on the offensive end. I hope Ryan becomes more aggressive on the offense in his senior year as I still believe he has all the skills to be a great offensive player, he just hasn’t been able to fully realize them yet. Perhaps he will do so next year and become a key cog in NU’s success.

Sunday, March 22, 2009

Position Group Evaluation Part 1: Guards

This post starts an offseason feature in which Welsh-Ryan Ramblings will provide an evaluation of the performance of each position group’s performance during the 2008-2009 season.

Position Group: Guards
Players Included: Craig Moore, Michael Thompson, Jeremy Nash, Sterling Williams
Grade: A-

I believe NU’s guards were the best position group on the Wildcat roster this season. That probably had something to with the fact the group included two of the team’s top three scorers and the team’s top defender. Obviously, Craig Moore was the heart and soul of the Wildcats this season. When he hit big shots the Wildcats won, when he didn’t they lost. Moore hit 110 threes this season shooting 40.6% from behind the arc. He scored 14.3 ppg and was second on the team with 84 assists against only 56 turnovers. Moore was also second on the team in rebounds with an average of 3.2 rpg and 99 total. Furthermore, Moore tied for the team lead in steals. Basically, Moore defined the term “stat sheet stuffer” and replacing him will be very tough.

Next to Moore in the back court, Michael Thompson also contributed mightily to the ‘Cats success. Thompson finished just short of averaging double digits in points with 9.9 ppg. He led NU in three point percentage at 41.7% and in assists with 114 against only 52 turnovers. Thompson also added 40 steals this season. Aside from the numbers, it was very clear that when Thompson went to the bench with foul trouble that Northwestern was in trouble. Without Thompson to administer the game and provide a solid third scoring option after Moore and Coble, the NU offense started to grind to a halt. I hope Thompson is a little more aggressive on offense next year, but a little smarter on defense as NU still seems to lack a solid backup for Juice.

The primarily backups at the guards slots for Northwestern were Sterling Williams and Jeremy Nash. Jeff Ryan also saw some time at guard, but he played more forward. I also decided not to evaluate the players at the end of the bench who saw only limited time. Once he entered the NU rotation, Jeremy Nash made a major splash. When Nash entered the game, the Wildcats went to a three guard offense and more often than not started using a 1-3-1 defense. At the top of that 1-3-1 defense, Jeremy caused a ton of havoc for the Wildcats opposition. Not only did he get 35 steals, but he tipped a ton more passes which allowed other Wildcats to get steals. Nash’s improvement in three point shooting also deserves mention and helps increase my grade for NU’s guard core. Nash shot 14-of-41 from three which is 34.1%. If Nash can increase that percentage and the number of threes he makes next year, he could become a key starter at the shooting guard position. The role Sterling Williams played as a backup point guard went relatively unnoticed this season. Williams moved from his role during the first part of his career as a regular starter to backup this season thanks to the addition of NU’s strong freshmen class. Perhaps the best note on Sterling this season was that in 191 minutes he had only 2 turnovers. That’s pretty impressive for a guy who spent a lot of the time he was in the game handling the ball. I also suspect Sterling will always be remembered for the two big shots he made during NU’s key run in the victory at Purdue.

The only major weakness for NU’s guard group was their inability to defend their most athletic opponents. If an improved Jeremy Nash or freshman Drew Crawford can play such defense next season it will improve NU’s ability to beat teams like Ohio State and Michigan. Aside from better defense, the other key to NU’s guards having continued success will be to replace Moore’s scoring. I believe doing so will be a team effort, however, I really do believe a more aggressive Michael Thompson will go a long way towards getting this task accomplished. Thompson has the skills to score 12-15 ppg, he simply needs to play with a mindset which allows him to use them.

Friday, March 20, 2009

Friday Flashforward: Hopes for 2009-2010

I'll start looking back at 2008-2009 next week, but first I want to share my hopes for next season. Below in no real order is a list of items I want to see next season...

- Kyle Rowley to use his size to his advantage. It seemed too often this year despite being 7-0, Rowley played like he was 5-11.

- Jeremy Nash to hit at least 2 threes a game. If Nash can hit threes he can then drive to the hoop and give NU another threat on offense.

- Drew Crawford to provide NU with a player who cannot only score off the dribble, but who can guard other players who can score off the dribble.

- Alex Marcotullio to have Craig Moore like range.

- Luka Mirkovic to consistently hit 15-18 foot shots.

- Kevin Coble to be first team All-Big Ten.

- The Wildcats to win at least 7 Big Ten home games.

- The fans to fill Welsh-Ryan Arena for a non-conference game which NU wins.

- The Wildcats to win on the road against an ACC team.

- John Shurna to average at least 10 ppg and 5 rpg.

- Northwestern finish games in which they have let leads.

- Kevin Coble shoot 42% or better from three.

- Ivan Peljusic to find a role where he can bring his excitment to the floor for at least 5-8 minutes a game.

- Juice Thompson to hit 45% of his threes and be the best point guard in the Big Ten.

- Northwestern to once again will all non-conference home games.

- Northwestern to win at least two games in the Big Ten Tournament.

- Northwestern to play in the NCAA Tournament.

- Northwestern to win a game in the NCAA Tournament,

- Bill Carmody to win National Coach of the Year. The first coach who takes NU to the NCAA Tournament has got to win this award.

Wednesday, March 18, 2009

Northwestern's Season Ends at Tulsa in 68-59 NIT Opener Loss

A season which statistically was the second best in Northwestern history ended this evening when the Wildcats fell to Tulsa in the first round of the NIT. It was Northwestern’s forth postseason appearance and the second in which they lost the first game on the road. Playing on the road no doubt hurt Northwestern as Tulsa overcame a slow start and ended up scoring 40 second half points on route to victory. Tulsa guard Ben Uzoh scored 13 points and hit three big second half threes, but the real key to victory was Tulsa taking 29 free throws and making 25. Northwestern was 6-of-9 from the line. Some of the credit for Tulsa’s great free throw numbers has to go to big man Jerome Jordan who hit 8-of-11, but really the entire Tulsa team was involved from the charity strip. Northwestern probably should have been aggressive to the hoop, but Jordan’s presence keep the Wildcats further from the hoop. There were probably some calls which didn’t go Northwestern’s way, but I still would have liked NU to force the issue a little more inside as it seemed like the officials wanted to blow their whistles. Maybe they wouldn’t have made the calls since NU was the visitor (they did let Tulsa get away with bumping cutters all day), but I wonder if NU would gotten a few more calls had they taken the ball inside a bit more.

Aside from the free throw line what really changed the game was the start of the second half. Ben Uzoh and his teammates came out of the locker room hot and got NU down 10 points in what seemed like the blink of an eye. Eventually Tulsa gained an 11 point lead. As was the recurring theme in later part of the season, NU made a nice attempt at a comeback to try and cut the lead. The Wildcats eventually did cut the lead to three points thanks to some excellent defense and a few threes, but Craig Moore’s last shot didn’t fall. Sadly, he was open, but he rushed a bit and the shot bounced off the rim. It was a disappointing way for NU’s all time best three point shooter to end his career. Personally, I just wish NU would consistently play defense the way they did when making their attempt at a comeback. It is amazing to me how the Wildcats defensive effort sometimes lags and how their opponents instantly take advantage of those lapses.

Northwestern’s best performance came from Kevin Coble who scored 17 points to go along with 5 rebounds and 6 assists. I really feel as though Coble finished this year strong, unfortunately not many of his teammates matched his effort in the Wildcats last few games. Still, Coble’s play at the end of 2008-09 gives hope for him as the leader of the 2009-10 Wildcat team. NU’s leader for 2008-09, Craig Moore also scored 17 points, but the Wildcat’s third leading scorer Michael Thompson scored just 4 points and spent most of the game on the bench due to foul trouble. With Moore gone next season, Thompson must reduce his propensity to foul. He will be the Wildcats top three point shooter and the key guy when NU needs a clutch shot next year.

Speaking of next year, right now it seems like October is years away, but the fact is the Wildcats will be starting practice for the 2009-2010 season very soon. In between now and then it will be critical John Shurna, Kyle Rowley, Davide Curletti, and Luka Mirkovic to improve. Shurna needs to become more consistent from the three point line and the three centers need to improve their ability to take care of the ball, play post defense, and score inside. All these weaknesses were exposed tonight as Shurna struggled from three and NU’s young centers struggled against Jordan, but maybe someday it will be another young team who struggles against NU’s centers.

Finally, I want to thank all those who took the time to read my game recaps and other posts during this season. During the offseason, I’ll continue to post, though, probably not daily. The first set of posts, which should appear in the next few days, will feature a postseason breakdown of each position group. I will start the first day with the guards, move next to forwards, then centers, and finally conclude with the breakdown of the performance of NU’s coaching staff. Welsh-Ryan Ramblings’ postseason programming will also include a discussion of NU’s two recruits for next year, Drew Crawford and Alex Marcotullio. Let’s hope they are the missing pieces which will take the Wildcats to their first ever NCAA Tournament.