Northwestern’s players and coaches did so much well Saturday night in their one point loss to Ohio State that part of me is still confused by the fact NU didn’t win the game. Obviously, in the end it came down NU’s Alex Marcotullio waiting too long to make a backdoor pass to JerShon Cobb and then NU fouling Jared Sullinger who made 1-of-2 free throws. He really is an excellent player and it was long odds that he’d miss both foul shots with the game on the line. Drew Crawford’s 2-of-12 overall and 1-of-8 from three shooting day didn’t help NU’s upset bid as we all know Crawford is capable of much more and for Marcotullio who is one of NU’s best passers to throw the ball away is frustrating as well. I actually think Cobb was opened on the backdoor about a second and half before Marcotullio released the ball. In regards to Crawford, I once asked a former player if they thought any part of shooting was luck. I wanted to know why someone like Crawford could have everything go in one night and nothing on a night like tonight. I was told shooting has basically nothing to do with luck. When someone like Crawford makes his shots it’s because he is in rhythm with no nerves and is taking the time he needs to get off a shot, but when he is off like tonight he is likely somewhat nervous and is rushing his shot. Playing the number one team in the nation might be a reason to be nervous, but Crawford showed he was clearly the equal to many of the Buckeyes athletic players as he led NU’s rebounding effort which actually bested the Buckeyes 31-20. Truthfully, I think Drew might be the most frustrating player I’ve ever cheered for. He is more than capable of being an All-Big Ten type guy, but he has nights he looks like a walk-on could contribute the same numbers. Tonight he was somewhere in between, but somewhere between isn’t going to be good enough to beat #1.
I also feel like NU could have handled the end of the game better, but that’s now just dumb and fruitless second guessing. Still, what about a timeout after Sullinger missed the first free throw to make him think about it? Or, before that, what about with 46.2 seconds left when you’re inbounding trying to go with a quick three with a screen the screener play in order to get a two-for-one chance because you don’t want OSU with the last possession. Again, this is second guessing, but I want to offer these thoughts just to allow people to think about them. I mean obviously, NU’s game plan was solid tonight and as they always do they did a pretty good job on out of bounds plays, but it amazes me how Bill Carmody still seems struggle with end of game situations given how well he handles play calling at other points in the game.
I have to hand it to Juice Thompson who started slow, but had a big second half and clearly wasn’t afraid to hit the big shot. His 16 points and 8 assists are solid numbers, but just from watching the game you could tell how valuable Juice was to NU’s effort. This was a great example of leadership. While I think NU’s possession where Marcotullio turned the ball over might have resulted in a layup if Alex released his pass an instant sooner, I also don’t know why Juice didn’t get the ball.
I also have to give a big thumbs up to JerShon Cobb. He scored just 8 points, but like Drew Crawford showed he was as good an athlete as OSU’s guys as he pulled down 6 rebounds and played very nice defense in his 36 minutes. He also didn’t turn the ball over and to be honest seemed like one of NU’s most confident players.
Mike Capocci also played a very nice game before leaving with an injury. His 11 points actually led NU at the time he left. Considering NU was without their leading scorer and had the guy who was effectively replacing him on the bench for the game’s final 10 minutes makes the one point margin of loss even more remarkable. Still, the fact that Capocci got hurt in what was probably has best career game has to add to the feeling that NU hoops just can’t catch a break.
I also have to say that I thought NU’s team defense on Jared Sullinger wasn’t really all that bad. Luka Mirkovic, Davide Curletti and company battled him all night. Even the last play actually looked like it could have been considered a block if not for the body contact from the second defender. Luka and Davide combined didn’t have great night statically and looking back Davide’s missed free throw and Luka’s missed point blank layup on a great set play want to make you tear you hair out, but they gave commendable efforts.
At the end of the day, though, Ohio State is 22-0 and continues to survive close games. Northwestern is 13-8 and with eight games plus the Big Ten Tournament left it doesn’t look like they’ll be making the NCAA Tournament. I’m not even sure I see them in the NIT at this point. I know they made the NIT last year, but remember they were the last team in at 20-13 and I’m not sure I see NU getting a great many more wins this season. I sure am not counting either Penn State game as a win. Certainly, NU could run off eight straight wins and everything would change, but that isn’t a likely scenario. I do wonder if playing a slow paced game like tonight might be a better choice for NU when they play better teams in the future. They certainly didn’t look like they could run with Illinois and Wisconsin the first time and slow paced teams like Indiana and Penn State have beaten those squads.
I think what’s most disappointing about this loss is that it had the potential to be a unifying moment for the NU fan base. I think it is pretty clear that a lot of people want Bill Carmody fired. You don’t need to look to far on NU message boards, fan sites, or Welsh-Ryan Arena in order to see/hear examples of that feeling. If NU won this game I’m not sure how anyone could do anything other than support the coach. It would have been one of the biggest upsets in the history of college basketball (especially after Capocci joined Shurna on the DL) It seems ridiculous that Luka Mirkovic missing a point blank layup on what was actually a great play call by Carmody might be the straw that breaks the camel’s back as far as the coach goes, but I suspect the outcry from the people who want Carmody gone is going to start to grow now and if NU only wins two or three more games (which is very possible) I think Jim Phillips might have to listen. Whether you like Carmody or not you have to feel for the guy now, because basically, though parts of his coaching tonight weren’t great, essentially he stands a real chance of losing his job despite one of his best efforts as a coach. NU’s game plan tonight was spectacular and it wasn’t just Luka’s miss, NU ran a number of plays which got open shots which Crawford, Marcotullio, and Thompson missed. I guess you can say Carmody still deserves the blame because he recruited those guys, but when they’re on their game Crawford, Marcotullio, and Thompson are really as good of shooters as you’re going to get from guys who aren’t future NBAers and NU isn’t getting any future NBAers anytime soon. It really is too bad because this game could have been one of the best events ever for the Northwestern community and for our players and coaches who work so hard. Instead, it’s just another loss and it may in the end have an even higher cost than that for some of those involved.
Saturday, January 29, 2011
Ohio State beats NU 58-57
So my prediction that Northwestern basketball exits just to torture its fans proved truer than my prediction of a Buckeye blowout. I’ll have more in a bit, but I have to think this one over.
Shurna Out for OSU
NU's odds of an upset just got longer as John Shurna is out with his concussion. That said, concussions are serious things and he shouldn't play if symptoms are still lingering. To be honest, I wish he hadn’t played the second half vs Minnesota with a concussion. I know it was said he didn’t have symptoms, but I don’t know how one could watch that play and not think a concussion likely.
With Shurna out NU’s chances of winning are slim to none and I think slim is standing by the door waiting for his wife to finish chatting with neighbors so he can walk out. With that in mind, what I want to see from Northwestern tonight most is, obviously, still a win. But in the world realistic expectations what I want to see is maximum effort. At times Northwestern doesn’t play hard. They don’t. And that’s been the case for a couple years now and it’s my biggest frustration with this team and coaching staff. How you lack intensity in some of your only 18 Big Ten games a season is beyond me, but NU mangers it regularly. So, again, what I want to see tonight is NU fight until they absolutely cannot fight anymore. They need to hustle on defense, dive for loose balls, get bodies on rebounders, and never stop moving on offense. Doing all those things might still result in a loss. It probably will, but it’ll least give them an outside outside chance and give the fans reason to cheer their efforts.
Just to offer one other thought, with Shurna gone I’d probably revise my prediction and say OSU, 69 NU, 43 because I think the odds of NU getting points are significantly reduced. But this is Northwestern basketball and it exists to rip out your heart and then kick it around in a really intense game of soccer. Therefore, part of me would have not be surprised whatsoever if Northwestern plays this game close and loses like 50 to 48.
With Shurna out NU’s chances of winning are slim to none and I think slim is standing by the door waiting for his wife to finish chatting with neighbors so he can walk out. With that in mind, what I want to see from Northwestern tonight most is, obviously, still a win. But in the world realistic expectations what I want to see is maximum effort. At times Northwestern doesn’t play hard. They don’t. And that’s been the case for a couple years now and it’s my biggest frustration with this team and coaching staff. How you lack intensity in some of your only 18 Big Ten games a season is beyond me, but NU mangers it regularly. So, again, what I want to see tonight is NU fight until they absolutely cannot fight anymore. They need to hustle on defense, dive for loose balls, get bodies on rebounders, and never stop moving on offense. Doing all those things might still result in a loss. It probably will, but it’ll least give them an outside outside chance and give the fans reason to cheer their efforts.
Just to offer one other thought, with Shurna gone I’d probably revise my prediction and say OSU, 69 NU, 43 because I think the odds of NU getting points are significantly reduced. But this is Northwestern basketball and it exists to rip out your heart and then kick it around in a really intense game of soccer. Therefore, part of me would have not be surprised whatsoever if Northwestern plays this game close and loses like 50 to 48.
Friday, January 28, 2011
Long Odds for NU on Saturday
Northwestern plays Ohio State on Saturday at 5PM in Evanston in front of a sold-out Welsh-Ryan Arena and a national television audience on ESPN2. It is arguably the best chance in the history of Northwestern basketball (major sports?) for the Wildcats to get a win which will define their program and gain them respect nationally, locally, and within their own fan base and community. It is also a game which features some of the longest odds against NU in a very long time. Not only are the Wildcats massive underdogs to the #1 ranked and undefeated Buckeyes, but their best player is hurt and many in their fan base are actively speculating about a future for the team which doesn’t include Head Coach Bill Carmody, despite the fact the coach just recently inked a contract extension. The reason for such speculation is that NU has struggled in recent big games and while their 13-7 record is eye test worthy from the outside, those of us inside NU fandom know that this team’s failure to meet high expectations for the second straight season has become frustrating beyond belief. Now, though, the schedule makers have given NU and their coach a chance at redemption. Sure, the odds of a win seem astronomical, but this is the chance that the Wildcats have been given so they might as well embrace the opportunity and give the most effort they ever have.
Looking at the numbers this isn’t a matchup which offers much hope for NU. Yes, Ohio State has had several close calls, but they just annihilated a Purdue team which handed NU a double-digit defeat. Making matters worse, Ohio State’s strengths are Northwestern’s weaknesses and NU’s limited strengths don’t seem enough to counter. For example, Ohio State’s inside game led by possible Big Ten Player of the Year Jared Sullinger (17.8ppg, 10.0rpg, 57.6%fg) and Dallas Lauderdale (4.6ppg. 4.0rpg, 18.4 minutes a game) give the Buckeyes two big bodies that can rebound, play defense, and score inside. How NU will stop these two with Luka Mirkovic and Davide Curletti is anybody’s guess. Some might suggest NU play 1-3-1 to try and deny those guys the ball, but if they get the ball they’ll score with ridiculous ease over Juice Thompson. Plus, Ohio State rarely turns the ball over and as a team makes 41% of their threes. NU also may be at a disadvantage because leading scorer John Shurna might be out with a concussion. Not only does that take one of NU’s best weapons off the court, but at least at 6-8 Shurna could possibly get in the way of OSU’s big guys inside. If NU has to go with 6-6 Mike Capocci against Lauderdale, Sullinger, or DeShaun Thomas the game could become a layup drill for Ohio State. Obviously, NU’s perimeter players need to pressure the ball with intensity to prevent easy post feeds. This will take a major concentrated effort from a number of players who are much too often extremely passive on defense.
On offense Northwestern will need to revert a more traditional Princeton style of play. NU can’t try to score 90 points in this game. They never will. They need to try to score 50 and somehow try to hold Ohio State in the 40s. That seems very difficult, but NU has in the past shown the ability to pass the ball around without turning in over for most of the shot clock and still get a decent shot. That needs to be the plan on Saturday. If NU shoots the ball with less than 10 seconds on the shot clock every time, Ohio State will also have less offensive possessions and each mistake will become more critical. Of course, NU needs every close shot to fall in that scenario in comparison to what happened Wednesday at Minnesota. That’s important because if NU wins this game it’ll be more because of a psychological advantage than a physical advantage. NU’s players need to believe they have a chance and somehow NU needs to get Ohio State to start to panic and being to think, “Oh crap! We’re the number 1 team in America and we might lose to Northwestern.” If NU gets the Buckeyes thinking that way in raises the odds of Buckeye mistakes. That’s how lesser teams in the NCAA tournament pull upsets. They start to get the big guys thinking the wrong way and an athlete who is worried about failure is usually better terrible.
A sold out Welsh-Ryan should provide a great atmosphere as long as NU doesn’t get blown away early. I look forward to seeing the crowd. Obviously, if this game were played 100 times Ohio State would probably win more than 90 of those matchups. Maybe 99 of them. But the fact is this game is only going to be played once and all Northwestern has to do is have enough confidence, hustle, fearlessness, and luck to win that one. Is it likely? Not at all. Is it impossible? No. Do I think it will happen? Well, no, but I believe it could happen and that’s why I’ll be as hyped as ever come Saturday at 5PM. I predict: Ohio State, 69 Northwestern, 51
Looking at the numbers this isn’t a matchup which offers much hope for NU. Yes, Ohio State has had several close calls, but they just annihilated a Purdue team which handed NU a double-digit defeat. Making matters worse, Ohio State’s strengths are Northwestern’s weaknesses and NU’s limited strengths don’t seem enough to counter. For example, Ohio State’s inside game led by possible Big Ten Player of the Year Jared Sullinger (17.8ppg, 10.0rpg, 57.6%fg) and Dallas Lauderdale (4.6ppg. 4.0rpg, 18.4 minutes a game) give the Buckeyes two big bodies that can rebound, play defense, and score inside. How NU will stop these two with Luka Mirkovic and Davide Curletti is anybody’s guess. Some might suggest NU play 1-3-1 to try and deny those guys the ball, but if they get the ball they’ll score with ridiculous ease over Juice Thompson. Plus, Ohio State rarely turns the ball over and as a team makes 41% of their threes. NU also may be at a disadvantage because leading scorer John Shurna might be out with a concussion. Not only does that take one of NU’s best weapons off the court, but at least at 6-8 Shurna could possibly get in the way of OSU’s big guys inside. If NU has to go with 6-6 Mike Capocci against Lauderdale, Sullinger, or DeShaun Thomas the game could become a layup drill for Ohio State. Obviously, NU’s perimeter players need to pressure the ball with intensity to prevent easy post feeds. This will take a major concentrated effort from a number of players who are much too often extremely passive on defense.
On offense Northwestern will need to revert a more traditional Princeton style of play. NU can’t try to score 90 points in this game. They never will. They need to try to score 50 and somehow try to hold Ohio State in the 40s. That seems very difficult, but NU has in the past shown the ability to pass the ball around without turning in over for most of the shot clock and still get a decent shot. That needs to be the plan on Saturday. If NU shoots the ball with less than 10 seconds on the shot clock every time, Ohio State will also have less offensive possessions and each mistake will become more critical. Of course, NU needs every close shot to fall in that scenario in comparison to what happened Wednesday at Minnesota. That’s important because if NU wins this game it’ll be more because of a psychological advantage than a physical advantage. NU’s players need to believe they have a chance and somehow NU needs to get Ohio State to start to panic and being to think, “Oh crap! We’re the number 1 team in America and we might lose to Northwestern.” If NU gets the Buckeyes thinking that way in raises the odds of Buckeye mistakes. That’s how lesser teams in the NCAA tournament pull upsets. They start to get the big guys thinking the wrong way and an athlete who is worried about failure is usually better terrible.
A sold out Welsh-Ryan should provide a great atmosphere as long as NU doesn’t get blown away early. I look forward to seeing the crowd. Obviously, if this game were played 100 times Ohio State would probably win more than 90 of those matchups. Maybe 99 of them. But the fact is this game is only going to be played once and all Northwestern has to do is have enough confidence, hustle, fearlessness, and luck to win that one. Is it likely? Not at all. Is it impossible? No. Do I think it will happen? Well, no, but I believe it could happen and that’s why I’ll be as hyped as ever come Saturday at 5PM. I predict: Ohio State, 69 Northwestern, 51
Thursday, January 27, 2011
Yeah, about that one good thing I was hoping we’d get…
The Chicago Tribune says John Shurna has a concussion. It doesn’t say that he won’t play Saturday, but if he’s concussed that’s usually something that keeps people out for at least a week. I’m not suspired Shurna has a concussion. When I watched the many many replays the Big Ten Network showed last night I kind of figured that was the case and was shocked when Shurna repapered in the second half. I mean they guy hit a metal basket support and whiplashed on to a hardwood floor. It would have been darn near worthy of a write-up in the New England Journal of Medicine if he didn’t get a concussion. So we’ll see what happens with John this weekend. If he can’t play it probably isn’t the worst thing. The odds are long anyway and it would give his ankle more time to heal.
On another note, people are getting more and more into discussing NU coaching situation. A few people over on Lake the Posts and Wildcatreport.com even threw out names. Why do I mention this, well, this might be something of a defeatist attitude, but I’ve decided the odds are long that any coach will win at Northwestern until some larger institutional changes are made. The fact is basketball is more than football is a game where your talent can win out without great coaching and good coaching will lose to more talented teams. If you have a team with great lights-out shooters who can hit from anywhere and big physical guys who can grab their rebounds when they miss and get put backs and other easy scores, you’re very hard to beat even if you don’t have a genius game plan and while a creative game plan from the other side (a la the Princeton Offense) might upset you from time to time, you’re going to be the team that’s at the top of the standings at the end of the year. On the other hand, in football a lesser talented team can create a game plan with misdirection and a quick pace that actually uses the other team’s better athletic skill against them. In basketball, no way really exists to do this. When big 6-9 250-pounds of solid muscle Trevor Mbakwe decides he wants an offensive rebound over 5-10 Juice Thompson he’s going to get it. There isn’t spread offense of basketball that is going to get Mbakwe exhausted so Juice can grab his rebounds. Basically, I think Bill Carmody’s Northwestern teams will continue from this point forward to be .500 or better overall, but until Northwestern has the facilities and resources that top-50 players see at Duke, Vanderbilt or Georgetown you aren’t going to see NU make a serious run in men’s hoops because the smart kids who can counter the Mbakwe’s of the world won’t be in Evanston. It won’t matter who the coach is and in fact Carmody running the Princeton Offense will give Northwestern a better chance than bringing in someone who thinks he can play teams with Mbakwe’s and Sullinger’s heads-up athletically. The one option that I think would be superior to Carmody’s style would be to play like Dick Bennett’s 2000 Wisconsin team that just plays super physical (basically fouling) defense all night, takes care of the ball, and scores just enough points in their boxing matches, wait, I meant basketball games, to win 52-45 every night.
On another note, people are getting more and more into discussing NU coaching situation. A few people over on Lake the Posts and Wildcatreport.com even threw out names. Why do I mention this, well, this might be something of a defeatist attitude, but I’ve decided the odds are long that any coach will win at Northwestern until some larger institutional changes are made. The fact is basketball is more than football is a game where your talent can win out without great coaching and good coaching will lose to more talented teams. If you have a team with great lights-out shooters who can hit from anywhere and big physical guys who can grab their rebounds when they miss and get put backs and other easy scores, you’re very hard to beat even if you don’t have a genius game plan and while a creative game plan from the other side (a la the Princeton Offense) might upset you from time to time, you’re going to be the team that’s at the top of the standings at the end of the year. On the other hand, in football a lesser talented team can create a game plan with misdirection and a quick pace that actually uses the other team’s better athletic skill against them. In basketball, no way really exists to do this. When big 6-9 250-pounds of solid muscle Trevor Mbakwe decides he wants an offensive rebound over 5-10 Juice Thompson he’s going to get it. There isn’t spread offense of basketball that is going to get Mbakwe exhausted so Juice can grab his rebounds. Basically, I think Bill Carmody’s Northwestern teams will continue from this point forward to be .500 or better overall, but until Northwestern has the facilities and resources that top-50 players see at Duke, Vanderbilt or Georgetown you aren’t going to see NU make a serious run in men’s hoops because the smart kids who can counter the Mbakwe’s of the world won’t be in Evanston. It won’t matter who the coach is and in fact Carmody running the Princeton Offense will give Northwestern a better chance than bringing in someone who thinks he can play teams with Mbakwe’s and Sullinger’s heads-up athletically. The one option that I think would be superior to Carmody’s style would be to play like Dick Bennett’s 2000 Wisconsin team that just plays super physical (basically fouling) defense all night, takes care of the ball, and scores just enough points in their boxing matches, wait, I meant basketball games, to win 52-45 every night.
Wednesday, January 26, 2011
Northwestern Once Again Fails to Meet Challenge
Sports generally aren’t easy to predict. That’s what is supposed to make them fun to watch, the fact that anything can happen on any given night is why we tune into sporting events on our TV instead of watching a movie or a television show. However, Northwestern’s 2010-11 men’s basketball team is performing only according to the script. If one didn’t actually try to predict the outcome based on instinct and intuition, but instead made predictions based on only the facts, they would never be wrong in predicting a Northwestern game. Northwestern has still beaten every bad team they played, but failed to rise to the challenge and beat anybody any good.
NU’s loss tonignt against Minnesota wasn’t an embarrassment like the loss to Wisconsin; it was just a typical Big Ten road loss. The lower ranked, lesser talented ‘Cats tried their best against a highly ranked, more physically gifted Minnesota team, but despite some high points (and even a halftime lead) in the end Minnesota’s talent won out.
I think what’s becoming clear is that although this may be NU’s most talented team, they still aren’t talented enough to seriously expect to compete in the Big Ten. NU has a lot of nice players who can have good games, but nobody good enough that their physical skills ensure they are a factor every night. For example, tonight Drew Crawford returned from his trip to the never-never to hit five threes. However, Juice Thompson went on extended vacation until the final moments of the game leaving NU once again without an essential contributor. Both guys are fine players, but they’re basically dependent on hitting shots to be a factor and some nights you miss more than you hit. NU also doesn’t have a player on the roster who could match Minnesota’s inside players for strength and it doesn’t look like NU is very well schooled at making up for lack of weakness or jumps with proper rebounding form.
At its core though basketball is called basketball because you have to put the ball in the basket and that was NU’s biggest failing tonight. Thanks to a Gopher zone which extended far out on the perimeter and Northwestern’s unaggressive second half play (they didn’t even shoot a free throw till 30 seconds were left) NU took 39 three pointers. NU is a three point shooting team, but that’s far too many. NU needed to try to get the ball inside. Probably not to the post, because NU’s centers were clearly outmanned, but by driving the lane and then passing to cutters and shooters. That was the plan when NU staged a first half comeback, but it wasn’t the case in the second half when NU’s narrow lead disappeared.
Not that this will shock anyone either, but NU played poor defense in the second half tonight. I know you’re all surprise by it, but NU let Minnesota get the ball inside with so much ease in the second half that the Gophers were in the bonus almost before the first TV timeout because once they ball got inside the 1-3-1 NU had no choice but to foul. The 1-3-1 got NU back in the game in the first half, but I figured Tubby Smith would adjust for the second half and he did. I think NU really needs a third defense because right now both of NU’s primary options can and have been shredded on a regular basis. I’m guessing man-to-man is out, but with NU’s talent they seem like a team who is perfect for playing a triangle and two or box and one.
NU’s lack of production from the center position has been mentioned, but it’s worth restating because it was another obvious problem tonight and it shows were NU stands. Sampson, Iverson, and Mbakwe made NU’s centers look pretty bad and that’s bad because NU faces the nation’s best big man on Saturday in OSU’s Jared Sullinger. Also, NU can’t win without production from Luka Mirkovic and Davide Curletti. I don’t how, but someway needs to be devised to get those two to be a factor in every game NU plays.
John Shurna had a good game despite a scary injury as he scored 16 points and pulled down a number of rebounds as well. It’s good to see John getting clearly closer to one hundred percent. A more fully recovered Shurna has to give NU some hope that they might be able to buck the odds and pull an upset before the end of the season. At this point, though, one has to start to wonder what will be the final fate of this team. Is an NIT bid even likely if they don’t win a couple big games? I’d say no. Would NU accept a big to the CBI? Probably, but would it generate any buzz on campus? Who knows? For us in the core base on NU fandom there are clearly some key issues for debate, but I also see casual NU fans losing interest with NU basketball with each passing day. With as frustrating as this team has become to watch, I don’t really blame them. Still, I’m betting hosting Ohio State does generate a pretty good crowd. I just wouldn’t count on everybody coming back unless NU has saved all their cards to throw on the table for Saturday’s game. Of course, maybe it’s not what NU has to throw at OSU. Maybe it’ll finally be time that god or fate or time or whatever you believe is the controlling factor in the universe looks down for his/her/its high perch and says, “Alright Northwestern basketball fans, you’ve had to endure so much crap and catch so many bad breaks for so long it’s time I give you one good thing.” Hey, it’s possible, right?
NU’s loss tonignt against Minnesota wasn’t an embarrassment like the loss to Wisconsin; it was just a typical Big Ten road loss. The lower ranked, lesser talented ‘Cats tried their best against a highly ranked, more physically gifted Minnesota team, but despite some high points (and even a halftime lead) in the end Minnesota’s talent won out.
I think what’s becoming clear is that although this may be NU’s most talented team, they still aren’t talented enough to seriously expect to compete in the Big Ten. NU has a lot of nice players who can have good games, but nobody good enough that their physical skills ensure they are a factor every night. For example, tonight Drew Crawford returned from his trip to the never-never to hit five threes. However, Juice Thompson went on extended vacation until the final moments of the game leaving NU once again without an essential contributor. Both guys are fine players, but they’re basically dependent on hitting shots to be a factor and some nights you miss more than you hit. NU also doesn’t have a player on the roster who could match Minnesota’s inside players for strength and it doesn’t look like NU is very well schooled at making up for lack of weakness or jumps with proper rebounding form.
At its core though basketball is called basketball because you have to put the ball in the basket and that was NU’s biggest failing tonight. Thanks to a Gopher zone which extended far out on the perimeter and Northwestern’s unaggressive second half play (they didn’t even shoot a free throw till 30 seconds were left) NU took 39 three pointers. NU is a three point shooting team, but that’s far too many. NU needed to try to get the ball inside. Probably not to the post, because NU’s centers were clearly outmanned, but by driving the lane and then passing to cutters and shooters. That was the plan when NU staged a first half comeback, but it wasn’t the case in the second half when NU’s narrow lead disappeared.
Not that this will shock anyone either, but NU played poor defense in the second half tonight. I know you’re all surprise by it, but NU let Minnesota get the ball inside with so much ease in the second half that the Gophers were in the bonus almost before the first TV timeout because once they ball got inside the 1-3-1 NU had no choice but to foul. The 1-3-1 got NU back in the game in the first half, but I figured Tubby Smith would adjust for the second half and he did. I think NU really needs a third defense because right now both of NU’s primary options can and have been shredded on a regular basis. I’m guessing man-to-man is out, but with NU’s talent they seem like a team who is perfect for playing a triangle and two or box and one.
NU’s lack of production from the center position has been mentioned, but it’s worth restating because it was another obvious problem tonight and it shows were NU stands. Sampson, Iverson, and Mbakwe made NU’s centers look pretty bad and that’s bad because NU faces the nation’s best big man on Saturday in OSU’s Jared Sullinger. Also, NU can’t win without production from Luka Mirkovic and Davide Curletti. I don’t how, but someway needs to be devised to get those two to be a factor in every game NU plays.
John Shurna had a good game despite a scary injury as he scored 16 points and pulled down a number of rebounds as well. It’s good to see John getting clearly closer to one hundred percent. A more fully recovered Shurna has to give NU some hope that they might be able to buck the odds and pull an upset before the end of the season. At this point, though, one has to start to wonder what will be the final fate of this team. Is an NIT bid even likely if they don’t win a couple big games? I’d say no. Would NU accept a big to the CBI? Probably, but would it generate any buzz on campus? Who knows? For us in the core base on NU fandom there are clearly some key issues for debate, but I also see casual NU fans losing interest with NU basketball with each passing day. With as frustrating as this team has become to watch, I don’t really blame them. Still, I’m betting hosting Ohio State does generate a pretty good crowd. I just wouldn’t count on everybody coming back unless NU has saved all their cards to throw on the table for Saturday’s game. Of course, maybe it’s not what NU has to throw at OSU. Maybe it’ll finally be time that god or fate or time or whatever you believe is the controlling factor in the universe looks down for his/her/its high perch and says, “Alright Northwestern basketball fans, you’ve had to endure so much crap and catch so many bad breaks for so long it’s time I give you one good thing.” Hey, it’s possible, right?
Tuesday, January 25, 2011
Northwestern travels to Minnesota Still Seeking First Upset Win
On the heels of a disappointing defeat on Sunday, Northwestern will take a trip out of state for a game Wednesday in Minnesota. The ‘Cats opponent, the University of Minnesota Golden Gophers bring a 15-4 record and a #16 national ranking to the contest. This means that as bad as NU’s loss to Wisconsin might have been, NU can erase they defeat with an even more significant victory on Wednesday. The win would be especially big given that it would be a road win which is valued by the selection committee even more than home victories.
This might be stating the obvious, but this game won’t be easy. Teams that lose by 20-plus points at home don’t generally pull upsets on the road in their next game. However, Northwestern is a strange team. Sure, they pretty much beat who they should beat and lose to who they should lose to (that would mean a loss vs Minnesota) but the way they play from game to game is wildly unpredictable. NU’s lost some bad games besides Wisconsin, but several have been very close as well. On the other hand, most of NU’s wins have been easy, but their closest was to one of their weakest opponents. What’s all that mean? It’s anybody’s guess. I chose to believe that it means even though NU has yet to pull an upset this year that it still is possible.
If NU is going to pull the upset they must play defense. NU’s given up two historic offensive performances this year at Illinois and vs Wisconsin. Some credit those teams (and they deserve some credit), but the truth is that if you get beat so badly twice, it’s a pattern and some of the blame has to fall on you. I mean part of me has no trouble believing Northwestern is the team just unlucky enough to catch both teams on their best days ever, but in truth you don’t get as hot from deep as those teams without seeing some holes in the other guy’s defense. For NU to correct those holes they need to play with a little more effort on defense. In past years NU had guys who elevated the rest of the team’s defensive efforts, but we haven’t seen that this season. It would be a significant step if either JerShon Cobb or Drew Crawford used their athletic skill to really step to the forefront as NU’s top defender. One advantage NU might have in stopping Minnesota is the Gophers are without point guard Al Nolen who suffered a foot injury. With Devoe Joseph having transferred, Minnesota is short at guard. Maverick Ahanmisi will likely start on Wednesday and to this point he’s played just about nine minutes a game. If NU is going to try to use their active zone defenses to get turnovers this might be the night. The only problem with NU going 1-3-1 is the Gophers have Blake Hoffarber who is a 40% three point shooter to use in the holes of NU’s zone.
The other advantage the Gophers will have is size. NU had managed to avoid disaster on the boards in the Big Ten until Sunday when the Badgers dominated the ‘Cats. The Gophers have Ralph Sampson III and Trevor Mbakwe who are both big and mobile and who score in double figures and get more than five boards a game. Mbakwe actually gets more than 10. Colton Iverson is also a big Gopher who can rebound. Between those three, NU is going to need Luka Mirkovic to get some major help from the athletic duo of Cobb and Crawford.
Drew Crawford might be the most significant player for NU in this game. Not only does he need to be a factor on defense and the glass, but he needs to wave his magician’s wand and make himself reappear on offense as well. Crawford averages about 13 points a game, but it seems like he scores either 26 or 0 in a contest. 26 from Crawford would sure help increase NU’s chances.
NU also needs Juice Thompson to stay out of foul trouble. Minnesota will try to apply pressure and NU needs Juice on the floor to break it.
With this game being the first for the Gopher without Nolen anything could happen. Sometimes teams rally especially in the first game without a star. However, sometimes the loss of a player as blessed as Nolen will make a team panic. I think this game will be close as Minnesota adjusts, what likely will win it for Minnesota is the way the Gophers can dominate inside. NU could have a hot shooting night as Williams Arena is known as a great shooing environment, but if they don’t, I doubt any of NU’s inside players will be able to pick up the slack. I predict: Minnesota, 78 Northwestern, 70
This might be stating the obvious, but this game won’t be easy. Teams that lose by 20-plus points at home don’t generally pull upsets on the road in their next game. However, Northwestern is a strange team. Sure, they pretty much beat who they should beat and lose to who they should lose to (that would mean a loss vs Minnesota) but the way they play from game to game is wildly unpredictable. NU’s lost some bad games besides Wisconsin, but several have been very close as well. On the other hand, most of NU’s wins have been easy, but their closest was to one of their weakest opponents. What’s all that mean? It’s anybody’s guess. I chose to believe that it means even though NU has yet to pull an upset this year that it still is possible.
If NU is going to pull the upset they must play defense. NU’s given up two historic offensive performances this year at Illinois and vs Wisconsin. Some credit those teams (and they deserve some credit), but the truth is that if you get beat so badly twice, it’s a pattern and some of the blame has to fall on you. I mean part of me has no trouble believing Northwestern is the team just unlucky enough to catch both teams on their best days ever, but in truth you don’t get as hot from deep as those teams without seeing some holes in the other guy’s defense. For NU to correct those holes they need to play with a little more effort on defense. In past years NU had guys who elevated the rest of the team’s defensive efforts, but we haven’t seen that this season. It would be a significant step if either JerShon Cobb or Drew Crawford used their athletic skill to really step to the forefront as NU’s top defender. One advantage NU might have in stopping Minnesota is the Gophers are without point guard Al Nolen who suffered a foot injury. With Devoe Joseph having transferred, Minnesota is short at guard. Maverick Ahanmisi will likely start on Wednesday and to this point he’s played just about nine minutes a game. If NU is going to try to use their active zone defenses to get turnovers this might be the night. The only problem with NU going 1-3-1 is the Gophers have Blake Hoffarber who is a 40% three point shooter to use in the holes of NU’s zone.
The other advantage the Gophers will have is size. NU had managed to avoid disaster on the boards in the Big Ten until Sunday when the Badgers dominated the ‘Cats. The Gophers have Ralph Sampson III and Trevor Mbakwe who are both big and mobile and who score in double figures and get more than five boards a game. Mbakwe actually gets more than 10. Colton Iverson is also a big Gopher who can rebound. Between those three, NU is going to need Luka Mirkovic to get some major help from the athletic duo of Cobb and Crawford.
Drew Crawford might be the most significant player for NU in this game. Not only does he need to be a factor on defense and the glass, but he needs to wave his magician’s wand and make himself reappear on offense as well. Crawford averages about 13 points a game, but it seems like he scores either 26 or 0 in a contest. 26 from Crawford would sure help increase NU’s chances.
NU also needs Juice Thompson to stay out of foul trouble. Minnesota will try to apply pressure and NU needs Juice on the floor to break it.
With this game being the first for the Gopher without Nolen anything could happen. Sometimes teams rally especially in the first game without a star. However, sometimes the loss of a player as blessed as Nolen will make a team panic. I think this game will be close as Minnesota adjusts, what likely will win it for Minnesota is the way the Gophers can dominate inside. NU could have a hot shooting night as Williams Arena is known as a great shooing environment, but if they don’t, I doubt any of NU’s inside players will be able to pick up the slack. I predict: Minnesota, 78 Northwestern, 70
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