The Big Ten Tournament or Two Wins From The Big Dance

Here we are on March 7th and Northwestern is on the precipice of the NCAA Tournament. I’ll admit I had my doubts about this team and coaching staff, but they’ve overcome so much that you can’t help but admire what they’ve accomplished. This has been one of the most impressive displays of perseverance I’ve seen and I’ve heard that perseverance is the main ingredient to make fantasy into reality. I think most assumed that if Northwestern were ever to make the NCAA Tournament it would be with some type of magical nearly perfect season where everything went right. Instead, it seems nearly everything has gone wrong at times this year and the ‘Cats are still on the verge of the Big Dance. I break down the odds this way:

Loss to Minnesota…10% chance of making the Dance
Win vs Minnesota…60% chance of the making the Dance
Win vs Minnesota and Michigan…We’re In!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Now how likely is that third outcome? Well, it’s probably something of a 50/50 proposition. I think Northwestern will beat Michigan if they get a third chance at the Maize and Blue. My biggest fear is a let down in the Minnesota game. It just seems like one of those games where the Gophers could out-athlete NU and steal a victory. The good news is that the Gophers might not have 6-11 center Ralph Sampson III due to a knee injury and if he can’t go that takes at least one big guy off the court. The other major advantage NU has is that fact that Minnesota isn’t a great three point shooting team. Julian Welch is pretty good, but to me he looks like he’s got kind of a low/slow release if NU can get out on him maybe they force him to alter his shot or put the ball on the floor and try to shoot off the dribble. Other than Welch, the Gopher shooters aren’t scary. What is scary is their athletic skill. Everyone talks about Rodney Williams because he gets highlight film dunks, but Austin and Andre Hollins are good athletes as well. They’ll be very tough guards for NU in man-to-man which is why I’m hoping to see the ‘Cats not worry too much about just springing the 1-3-1 on the Gophers. Without great shooters and great ball handlers the Gophers are just the type of team that zone was created to beat (as long as Rodney Williams doesn’t come flying in from nowhere and grab every rebound).

On offense for NU look for the Wildcats to attack the Gophers with hopefully the same balance they’ve shown recently. John Shurna is the leader, but I’d love to see another big game from Drew Crawford and continued solid efforts by JerShon Cobb, Alex Marcotullio, and Reggie Hearn. Also, if Davide Curletti rebounds like he did vs Iowa then he’ll be great help vs the athletic Gophers.

For years I’ve joked that Northwestern basketball has been paying off karma at a vastly accelerated and/or inflated rate, but I’d like to think it’s finally been paid off. The ‘Cats enter the Big Ten Tournament as ready to go as they’ve been all season missing only Luka Mirkovic from the regular rotation. That’s big and those returning players might be just what NU needs to push them over the top. I predict: Northwestern, 65 Minnesota, 60

Biggest Win in Program History (Until Thursday)

Northwestern started slow, exploded in the middle, and hung on late, but the end result was positive enough that the ‘Cats escaped with a 70-66 victory in Iowa City which puts NU at 8-10 in the Big Ten for the year and places the ‘Cats as the #7-seed in the Big Ten Tournament. Today’s win combined with a win on Thursday in the Big Ten Tournament against Minnesota will give NU a strong case for inclusion in the NCAA Tournament. A win on Thursday and Friday in the Big Ten Tournament will likely put NU into the 68-team field for certain.

Today’s win wasn’t easy. The ‘Cats were down 15 early and things looked kind of bleak. A switch to the 1-3-1 zone which continues to confound Iowa brought the ‘Cats back into the game and eventually allowed them to take a seven point halftime lead. That lead shrunk in the second half thanks to some good Iowa defense, but some clutch free throws by Dave Sobolewski and Alex Marcotullio allowed NU to get away with the win.

John Shurna was held in check by the Hawkeyes, but I was really impressed with the way the rest of NU’s team stepped up. Drew Crawford was the headliner as he scored 18 points and grabbed 7 rebounds. He also made 6-of-7 free throws after going 1-of-5 from the free throw line on Wednesday night. Crawford really does seem to determine his success based on his first shot and after his first free throw feel in today he had a great day at the line. He also had a career high 5 steals and was one of several Wildcats who was very active in the 1-3-1 zone.

Another Wildcat who was active in that zone was JerShon Cobb who scored 13 points and made several clutch shots. He might not be 100% yet, but his ability to be on the court and in the rotation has been huge as it allows NU to balance playing time a little more and be at least somewhat fresher in the game’s final moments than they were earlier this year.

Cobb combined with effective play from Reggie Hearn and Alex Marcotullio make Northwestern a team which has options and support for Drew and John. That support was there today. It really wasn’t vs Ohio State. If the NU stars get support from the supporting cast, then NU has a great chance to win games. Even David Curletti stepped up today with 7 points his four offensive rebounds helped NU get 11 second chance points which is a stat the ‘Cats rarely are strong in.

So now it’s on to the Big Ten Tournament and Minnesota. It should be a good matchup for NU in the sense that they should be able to employ the 1-3-1 zone thanks to Minnesota’s lack of depth shooting. The Gophers have athletes on the glass, but if NU turns them over and shots decently from three it seems like NU’s got a chance to get another biggest win in program history.

The Most Important Game in School History (Really, We Mean It This Time)

Northwestern has played a series of “most important” games over the past two weeks. In those two weeks we as fans have felt some major highs and some major lows, but to borrow from NU’s football program the only question that matters is what’s important now? And the answer is the game against Iowa on Saturday afternoon. If the Wildcats win that game and one Big Ten Tournament game I believe they’ve got a great shot at the NCAA Tournament as the bubble isn’t that strong. So, I guess NU is basically playing in the Big Ten Tournament already in the sense that a win makes a major difference in the team’s future compared to a loss.

The Hawkeyes have been playing very well of late and they’ve been a strong home team all during the Big Ten season. However, they’ve got some tough losses on their resume and Northwestern made them look terrible against the 1-3-1 zone when the two teams met in Evanston. You would think Iowa would have practiced against the 1-3-1 since then, but they looked bad enough I’m not sure there could be enough practice that could see the Hawkeyes solving the defense.

If Iowa were to solve the riddle of NU’s 1-3-1 zone, I think the guy who will be most responsible is Matt Gatens. A senior playing in his last home game (well, maybe not if Iowa hosts an NIT game) Gatens has shown the ability to knock down shots in bunches. Before an average game vs Nebraska, he was on a total tear as the Hawkeyes beat Indiana and Wisconsin.

Iowa’s other star to contain is Roy Devyn Marble. Marble’s size makes him a tough matchup and he’s taken on the role as one of Iowa’s primary ball handlers as Bryce Cartwright missed some time due to injury. I’m not sure who would guard Marble if NU played man-to-man so that might be another good reason to play the zone.

Height-wise Iowa’s front court isn’t one that dominates NU in terms of size or athletic skill. However, Aaron White concerns me as does an improving Melsahn Basabe. Both seem to have that desire to be aggressive and get rebounds that sometimes I think the NU front court lacks.

For Northwestern to win this game they need to successfully force turnovers and make three point shots. Northwestern has been able to cover a lot of mistakes with made threes this season. Hopefully, the ‘Cats remember their lights-out shooting performance against Iowa in Iowa City last year and play with confidence.

I think this is going to be a very close game (which is no shock the way the Big Ten’s gone this season). Northwestern hasn’t been great in close games this year, but for whatever reason I feel confident about this game. I think we’ll see a Northwestern team that plays with focus and for once isn’t overcome by the magnitude of the event. I predict: Northwestern, 71 Iowa, 67

I Can’t Believe This Happened Again

I guess I shouldn’t be surprised, but once again Northwestern took a high-rated team to the wire, but couldn’t win. In a way this was the best of those efforts because Northwestern never led in the game and therefore they showed great effort in coming back to tie the game, but I just can’t get over the end result was again a loss in the final seconds. I will say that like Robbie Hummel of Purdue, I thought Jared Sullinger’s game winner was a very tough shot. I also thought that though it was obviously desperation that John Shurna got a better look with a chance to win than he did in the Purdue game.

In a way this game kind of sums of Northwestern to this point. John Shurna was great, Drew Crawford was really good (but is still way too much of a head case as once he missed his first free throw he couldn’t make any), but the rest of the team didn’t really produce enough to be serious threats and the defense and especially rebounding was subpar. If you consider the first part of the game where NU just couldn’t stop Ohio State while trying to play man-to-man defense or the number of rebound baskets the Buckeyes had during the course of the game you realize Northwestern was basically one play away from actually having the lead at the end of the game. Not to say Ohio State wouldn’t have won in overtime, but it was that close. When you factor in the missed free throws you then realize that Northwestern could have actually had a solid lead late.

I guess the end result has to be this, credit Northwestern for not giving up in this game or this season. Hopefully, they’ll be able to beat Iowa at Iowa on Saturday because I hardly think they can be penalized for this loss. If the ‘Cats win at Iowa I think they still have a very legitimate case for the NCAA Tournament. It might not happen, but at least they’ll have a reason to watch the show on Selection Sunday. We also can’t discount the Big Ten Tournament when we consider that Northwestern beat #1 seed Michigan State and had great chances to beat #2 Ohio State and #3 Michigan. I’d also say that though nobody wants to think this way, if Northwestern is relegated to the NIT, they’re probably the #1-seed in that tournament which does give them a great chance to win that event as long as the players refocus and realize that they’ve still got basketball to play.

Lastly, I'm not going to place this loss on the officals when we couldn't hit a free throw or rebound, but in the last few moments of the game I thought Aaron Craft travled before passing to Thomas for a three, I thought Shurna was fouled on a drive, and I can't believe they allowed Jared Sullinger to just toss the ball over his head to the fans without him getting a T.

Senior Night With A Lot To Play For

Northwestern’s roster features four seniors: Nick Fruendt, Davide Curletti, Luka Mirkovic and John Shurna. These four players are the winningest group in the history of Northwestern Men’s Basketball and will finish their careers having played in the post season every year and having never had a losing season. That’s remarkable in the history of Northwestern basketball and while Shurna is clearly the star in the group, the other three seniors deserve credit as well as each had huge games in their career.

Fruendt in the Big Ten Tournament last year vs Minnesota.

Curletti this year against Michigan State.

Luka with a double-double as a sophomore vs #6 Purdue.

There are players in the country who play all four years and don’t have those moments and when these seniors are honored on Wednesday night, I hope our fans can remember those moments and the many more positive moments this class had brought to NU hoops and cheer loudly.

I also hope more great moments arrive during the game.

In NU basketball history more often than not senior night has rolled around without a lot on the line. The notable NIT-clincher against Michigan in 1994 might have been the last time the ‘Cats seniors played their final home game with something to play for besides pride.

On Wednesday night everything is on the line for Northwestern. I’ll admit to being a doubter, but the NCAA Tournament is still out there for the taking. For Ohio State, the odds are against them, but a Big Ten Championship is out there for the taking. Is that enough motivation for these two teams? I’d think so.

If not? Well, there is always still pride. Northwestern hasn’t owned home court as well as they should have with four seniors. Ohio State hasn’t dominated the Big Ten they way they should have with a trio of stars in William Buford, Jared Sullinger, and Aaron Craft. Not to mention a supporting cast of Buckeyes with talent to spare. Can the ‘Cats make a final home statement that won’t be forgotten anytime soon? Can the Buckeyes make a statement that warns Michigan State they better be ready or the Big Ten Title they thought was theirs alone with slip from the their grasp? We’ll see starting at 7:30CT.

I’m looking for Ohio State to attempt to attack NU’s zone as they did earlier this year and for NU to move the game at a more consistent pace as opposed to some of the rushed shots they took in the first meeting between these teams. Nearly everything is on the line for both squads. With that in mind, I have to take the team that’s won everything before. I predict: Ohio State, 67 Northwester, 56

A Close Win Finally Arrives for Northwestern

Well, that was a lot like the Michigan games or the Illinois game or the Purdue game, but the difference was the end result was a Northwestern win. NU still struggled a bit down the stretch as they couldn’t hit a field goal in the final three minutes, but two clutch free throws by John Shurna were enough to allow NU to escape with a 67-66 victory and move to 7-9 in the Big Ten. The target for NU seems to in some ways be on the move based on a loss by N.C. State and a win by Purdue (and what happens in the Illinois-Iowa game tomorrow), but I think we all know that if NU didn’t win this game it would have presented a huge obstacle to seeing NU in the NCAA Tournament.

Really, I can’t say enough about how well John Shurna played in this game. Having been man handled by Penn State all night, he got smashed as soon as he caught the ball on NU’s final possession (the point where a foul should have been called), tried to turn around, was hit on the arm slightly (where the foul was called), walked to the line and sank two free throws with the game (and maybe NU’s postseason fate) on the line. That was to go along with 21 other points, 6 assists, and 5 blocks. If the rest of NU’s team would give the same effort Shurna did the ‘Cats would win games like this easily.

The fact is that while Penn State coach Patrick Chambers might not have liked the final call, Shurna was fouled so many times in this game without getting a whistle it was almost ridiculous. I don’t know what else the kid has to due to earn respect for the officials, but the result was the same against Michigan. Teams beat up Shurna and nothing gets called. You can bet that other Big Ten stars would get those calls.

As we’ve talked about before, Northwestern generally wins games when they shoot the ball well because they can’t play defense at all. Today was a great example of that as NU made 15 three points (including a 4-of-5 day from Drew Crawford and a 4-of-6 day from Alex Marcotullio). However, NU’s 1-3-1 was probably the worst it had been all season. Penn State got countless layups and dunks and just made the ‘Cats look like an embarrassment on defense. As bad as Northwestern is defensively, they can do better than what they did tonight. I still think more effort should be put into man-to-man defense, but I’m starting to see some defensive weaknesses there as Drew Crawford really doesn’t look like a great man-to-man defender when I watch closely despite the fact that his athletic skill would make one think he would be. Hopefully so improvement will happen so where between now and the Ohio State game or that could be a feast for the Buckeyes solid front court.

Regardless, I think we do need to feel could about NU’s first win at Penn State in about a decade because I’m sure there were some mental barriers in playing in the Jordan Center. It’s also a road win which is nice as NU plays another critical road game in a week at Iowa. Now, though, the ‘Cats will look forward to senior night in Evanston on Wednesday. Hopefully, winning a close game also helps get NU over a barrier as last year’s home game vs Ohio State was another contest in which NU couldn’t make the last clutch play. Maybe now that they have they will again.

Some Quick Thoughts on Today’s Game

-Northwestern should win this game. The Wildcats have so much more to play for and they’ve got the better talent on the floor.

-Penn State is a much better shooting team at home than on the road. This is something of a concern related to the 1-3-1 zone, but NU has some size over Penn State which might even up the rebounding end of things.

-Tim Frazier is a great player and has the advantage of getting the ball in his hands every play. It’ll be interesting to see what NU does defensively against him.

-John Shurna needs to find a way to demand the ball in the clutch if the game gets to that point.

-NU needs to find ways to rest players so they aren’t totally spent at the end of the game in the clutch.

-I think Northwestern wins 68-60.