Northwestern Looking to Defend Home Court vs Iowa

One of the oddities of this season has been that Northwestern has played better away from Welsh-Ryan Arena. In NU’s recent history they’d be very strong inside Welsh-Ryan, but this year they’ve been far better away from home. If NU wants to consider upending many of the negative expectations that currently surround them as a team they need to start winning at home consistently.

The good news is the Iowa Hawkeye squad who they will face on Sunday is a team they have the ability to beat. In many ways these two teams are the same. They’re both young teams trying to prove they belong in the second tier of the Big Ten instead of the third tier with Penn State and Nebraska. NU got their first Big Ten win in a 70-54 victory at Penn State, but Iowa sits at 0-3 in the league after a late collapse at home vs Michigan State. This is probably in many ways a bigger game for Iowa given that fact, but moving to 2-2 in the league would certainly benefit NU given that they face an Illinois team that is seriously slumping in Champaign on Thursday.

One of the things that got NU back on the winning track vs PSU was the fact they hit their three point shots. Making those 9-of-22 threes caused the ‘Cats to able to reach 70 points which was dramatically more than it looked like they’d ever reach in a Big Ten game after their loss to Minnesota. Making more threes will be key vs Iowa. Iowa native Kale Abrahamson needs to continue his improvement and outside shooting contributions from Dave Sobolewski and Jared Swopshire could also prove the difference as they did at Penn State. One area of concern is that Iowa has been strong in three point percentage defense holding opponents below 30%. However, it should be noted that the Hawkeyes haven’t faced great three point shooting teams yet. I’m not sure NU is a great shooting team either, but hopefully they’ll be able to get some open looks via the Princeton Offense.

NU getting those open looks is possible because Iowa plays a ton of young guys and young players often fall victim to the Princeton Offense the first time they face it. Iowa guards Mike Gesell (9.2ppg) and Anthony Clemmons have had nice freshmen seasons, but hopefully they’ll be somewhat uncertain about how to defend and attack NU. This is a game where NU might want to consider playing the 1-3-1 zone as Iowa only makes 30.8% of their threes and the zone is tough to prepare for in practice and Iowa’s young guys haven’t seen it in game action. Iowa’s best players are guard Roy Devyn Marble who averages 15.5 points per game and is the team’s only serious three point shooting threat. He was out for the Michigan State game, but will likely play vs NU. Center Aaron White has been a strong scoring threat for Iowa at 13.1ppg and he also gets 6.1rpg. He’ll be a guy NU needs to keep of the offensive glass if they do play 1-3-1. Iowa also gets some inside scoring and defense from Melsahn Basabe. Also, watch Zach McCabe who has slumped this year, but guys have been known to break slumps vs Northwestern.

Prediction: I’ve had my worst year predicting games this season (though I was just one point off on each team’s total in the NU@Minnesota game). It’s just so hard to get a read on this Northwestern team. I think this is a game NU should probably win. Yes, Iowa played Michigan State close, but that was in Iowa City and young teams generally play better at home (NU has admittedly been an exception). Also, I’m counting on the fact that facing the Princeton Offense and 1-3-1 zone for the first time in game action will confound Iowa’s youth and the fact that Welsh-Ryan is sometimes a tough place to shoot in because it’s so different in shooting background than the larger (and nicer) arenas the rest of the Big Ten has and Iowa’s a team that hasn’t shot well of late. Northwestern, 71 Iowa, 65

Northwestern Finds Its Offense and 1st Big Ten Win

It wasn't a perfect game for Northwestern but it was far better than either of their two previous Big Ten contests. NU finally got consistent from the outside and made a enough three point shots to get the defense to respect the outside shooting which opened up some space for NU to drive and get some easy baskets. The end result was the overall best offensive game Northwestern has played in sometime.

The two keys to NU's offensive attack were Dave Sobolewski and Jared Swopshire. They both need to be 15 or more points per game scorers if NU is to compete in the Big Ten and that's what they both were tonight. I was very impressed with how Sobolewski seemed to be more aware of looking for shots than he was at Minnesota. Of course, the fact he wasn't ordered to make sure a shot didn't go up until 10 seconds or less were on the shot clock probably helped. NU ran time off the clock at times tonight, but they also were not afraid to take a really good shot if it presented itself early. Perhaps that middle ground is where NU should be the rest of this season. It seemed to help Sobolewski who made some nice drives to the hoop in addition to hitting some threes. Swopshire was primarily an inside player who scored off the dribble or in the post, but the fact he also hit an early three I think was key to his offensive confidence. He also did a nice job on the glass today and seemed to facilitate well and set up his teammates for some good shots. Perhaps he's getting more comfortable playing in NU's offense.

I also would be remiss if I didn't mention Kale Abrahamson's shooting tonight. He knocked down three threes and I really think he's going to be a great offensive player. I have total confidence when he shoots stand still shots and I think if he gets enough of those he will become a regularly double figure scorer. NU also got some nice shots from Reggie Hearn who is still clearly not 100% but I think it's clear NU is better if he's on the court even if he's not at his best. Of course, Hearn is one of several Wildcats who need to work on their free throw shooting. NU already lost to UIC this year because they couldn't make free throws and I'm really worried how their lack of consistency at the line will play out in close games.

I also worry about NU's interior defense. PSU got a lot of inside shots which didn't fall. Northwestern needs to do a better job of denying entry passes and not getting caught in mismatches when they switch. Alex Olah and Kale Abrahamson shouldn't be defending quick guards, but the willingness of NU to switch instead of fighting through screens makes things too easy for opponents at times. NU has another winnable game next vs Iowa, but they can't let Iowa get easy shots because they'll do a better job of converting them than PSU did. It's a big game for NU on Sunday if they can win that game and somehow steal a win in their next two the 'Cats could be 3-3 after 6 Big Ten games despite facing a ridiculously tough schedule.

Northwestern and Penn State Both Seeking First Big Ten Win

Both Northwestern and Penn State are facing tough situations having lost their top players for the season. PSU lost Tim Frazier and NU lost both Drew Crawford and JerShon Cobb. With both rosters depleted neither team has seen much success thus far in Big Ten play and neither team is really expected to have much success the rest of the season. That means this game could be the best opportunity for each squad to get a win for sometime.


Northwestern will most likely try to slow the game down once again and hopefully Reggie Hearn will be closer to 100%. I’d also say that I really think if NU runs slow down that Tre Demps needs to be on the court virtually all the time. If you think back to when the slow down game worked well there were a number of times when the shot clock got to about five seconds left that the ball was given to Drew Crawford or Juice Thompson and they created a shot. Northwestern really didn’t have anybody with the ability to create a shot on the floor at Minnesota and as I result they suffered several shot clock violations or very low percentage shots thanks to the expiring shot clock.


Penn State hasn’t been scoring much either this year. In fact, they average less points per game than NU does. They’re led in scoring by sophomore guard D.J. Newbill at about 15 points per game. At 6-4 he’s a good athlete who is a decent rebounder which could led to some second chance points vs NU. Penn State’s other guard is Jermaine Marshall who also averages over 14 points per game. He’s also the team’s leading three point shooter, but keep in mind that’s with only 24 made on the season which shows clear evidence that Penn State is not a good shooting team from downtown. It might be worth NU trying some 1-3-1 as long as they can grab some rebounds which is always something of a question mark. Look for 6-6 sophomore Ross Travis to be a factor on the glass. He’s a little undersized for a Big Ten forward, but he plays with a good motor and as a result pulls down more than seven rebounds per game.

Prediction: This is a game which could certainly go either way. Northwestern should have a size advantage, but Penn State is more athletic. Northwestern should be able to shoot better, but they’ve also been known to allow their opponents to shoot well above their season average. I’m also not certain how significant home court advantage will be for Penn State, but they do have a 15-3 all time record vs NU at home and I don’t think they’ve had a large crowd in any of those 18 games. Penn State, 58 Northwestern, 56

Slow Down Gives Northwestern a Chance but Speed and Talent Don't

This game showed some signs of how Northwestern can compete with their follow Big Ten teams by slowing the game down. It also showed what happens when they stop slowing the game down (though we kind of knew that). Things are better for Northwestern when they slow the game down because at least the pace of play prevents anyone from the other team of catching fire. On the other hand, when they attempt to play at a fast pace you get what you got today when NU tried to speed the game up and Austin Hollins caught fire and drilled multiple threes in a row.

Basically, then first half of this game was how NU should play and the second half was the Michigan game again. NU needs to play as slowly as possible to compete. In addition, they need to make three point shots and not turn the ball over. The three wide open three point misses by Jared Swopshire in the first half were huge as they could have given NU nice momentum. Early in the second half when NU still had a shot Kale Abrahamson missed a key three. This Northwestern team hasn't shot well all year and that's a problem. If they are going to play slow each possession matters so much more and if they can't hit shots it'll be a problem.

Swopshire needs to play less if he can't score. Why Tre Demps doesn't see more time is beyond me. In addition, Mike Turner doesn't seem to offer anything offensively or defensively from my point of view. I know Alex Olah can't play all 40 minutes but somehow NU needs a sub in that position that actually is a factor in the game. I really wouldn't t mind seeing Chier Ajou get a shot since at least he's 7-2 and accidentally grab a rebound based just on size.

Overall, I really didn't expect this team to be as bad as they appear. I think the biggest problem is the fact NU can't score, but bottom line right now this is a bad basketball team that Northwestern is putting on the court right now. I don't know if they're worse than the 1999-2000 team which went 0-for-Big Ten play and couldn't score at all, but they're pretty bad. I'll be paying attention and being supportive the rest of the year, but these last two games haven't been pretty to watch. The only positive is NU has two of their best chances at a Big Ten win in the next two games. I have doubts about a win happening but at least they aren't facing a top-15 team.

Northwestern Seeking Better Effort at Minnesota

The fact is that right now Northwestern is overmatched in virtually any game they play. Hopefully Reggie Hearn and Nikola Cerina will return at 100% soon, but years of being a Northwestern fan make me wonder about the likelihood of that occurrence. Regardless, the disappointment of NU’s loss to Michigan wasn’t the fact that NU lost badly—it was the fact NU didn’t seem to play with the intensity one would have assumed was necessary when playing a top-5 team in that nation. Maybe the reason for that was simply the fact that due to the team’s injuries that NU was playing a number of guys who never played a Big Ten game before and they were surprised by what they experience was like. I don’t know, but I do know that NU has to display more intensity (especially on defense) or what we saw vs Michigan will be the same in virtually every game.

NU now goes on the road to play at Minnesota. The positive is that NU has played better on the road this year than at home, but the fact is that Minnesota is a team which is way more talented than Northwestern. In fact, I’ve probably been more impressed with Minnesota than any other Big Ten team this year. I like the Gophers athletes up front and they play good defense as a team. Most concerning for NU is the Gophers 41 rebounds a game average. I’m thinking that Minnesota might be able to score every possession if they don’t turn the ball over as I’m not sure Northwestern will be able get any rebounds vs Rodney Williams, Trevor Mbakwe, and the rest of the super-athletic Gophers.

On offense Minnesota balances their scoring with four players Williams, Austin Hollins, Andre Hollins, and Joe Coleman all in double figures. Williams is the type of guy who scores a lot on putbacks and lobs because he’s so athletic, but the other guys can score in multiple ways and have the ability to knock down shots.


I’m not really sure what the best defense for NU to play vs Minnesota would be, but it better be one which shows some effort and hustle. On offense, NU should return to the slow-paced burn offense and if nothing else should at least keep the game low scoring. If NU shoots a high percentage from three then that slow pace will give them a chance.

Prediction: I think Minnesota wins this game with second chance points, but NU slowing down the game keeps the score below 70. Minnesota, 68 Northwestern, 52

#2 Michigan Outclasses Northwestern

This was a game that was over within the first five minutes. Michigan played as well as they could for the first seven or eight possessions of the game and Northwestern played about as bad as they could. Granted, I didn’t expect Northwestern to be able to beat this Michigan team, but I thought they’d at least make the game interesting for a half or so. They didn’t make it interesting for more than a half a minute.




Michigan is talented and anybody watching tonight would be ready to draft Trey Burke as their first player if they were going to start a team, but this game was decided much more by Northwestern’s ineptitude than Michigan’s talent. This was probably some of the worst basketball played by NU in Welsh-Ryan Arena in several years. Michigan simply did whatever they wanted on the offensive end and Northwestern was hopeless or maybe helpless to stop them.



Some will say that it was simply the talent gap that resulted in NU’s defeat, but I point to effort. It seemed Northwestern came out flat for a game vs the #2 team in the country. That doesn’t make sense to me. If they weren’t flat then they were simply scared to death which isn’t acceptable either. Whatever the reason, Northwestern had a notable lack of intensity on defense and that allowed Michigan to make six of their first seven shots and pretty much put the game away before some of the fans who entered late had even found their seats.



NU’s lack of intensity on defense, especially in man-to-man, has been something I’ve talked about a lot over the past 4.5 years. I don’t really want to rehash it again, but I will say that though I think it would be totally unfair for AD Jim Phillips to fire Bill Carmody after all the bad breaks this season that NU’s lack of intensity is the type of thing that gets a coach fired. If you as a coach can’t at least get your guys to play hard vs the #2 team in the country, overmatched as they might be, that’s not something which your AD is going be very happy about.



I do see hope for NU on offense as I see scoring potential in Tre Demps, Alex Olah, and Kale Abrahamson. I’d hope Abrahamson and Demps would be a little better from the outside and that Olah would be a little stronger with the ball, but the talent exists for them to do something productive. Offense, though, won’t win games for this team. The firepower just isn’t there. If Northwestern is to have any chance they have to play defense. I don’t expect them to beat Minnesota either, but if they don’t at least play harder on defense it’ll be hard for me to have any hope about where this season is going the rest of the way.

#2 Michigan at NU: Do the 'Cats have a chance?

First off congrats to NU's football team and coach Fitzgerald. Wildcat Nation is really a very happy group right now and deservedly so. Hopefully, many of those who cheered the football 'Cats on to victory in Jacksonville will be around to support NU's hoops team on Thursday night. I truly believe the NU crowd made a difference in the Gator Bowl and I know similar things can happen in basketball when the crowd is into the game.

Now, I have to admit that this game doesn't seem to offer the Wildcats much of a shot. Michigan is a team which seems not to have any sort of weakness. They get rebounds, play defense, and can score both inside and outside. I think they're also well coached and have played a competitive enough schedule that their 13-0 record is legitimate.

As has been the case in the past, the guys who really make UM go are Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway, Jr. It's a shame both didn't go to the NBA as they considered because it would have really increased the odds of NU beating these guys who they've consistently lost close to in the last few meetings. Burke's all around skills have him scoring nearly 18 points per game and shooting over 50%. He's also given out 96 assists so far this year. Hardaway has improved as a shooter at 35% from three which forces defenders to respect his outside shot and causes him to have more ability to get to the hoop. Those two are joined by dead-eye shooter Nik Stauskas and Glenn Robinson III as UM's top scoring threats. Those offensive players are supported by past Wildcat killer Jordan Morgan and freshman Mitch McGary who dominate inside. I once again feel this will be a tremendous challenge for NU's Alex Olah and I'm glad NU played enough tough non-conference games that Olah won't be totally overwhelmed by Big Ten big men.

NU's other key players are Tre Demps and Reggie Hearn. The 'Cats must score points and those guys to be offer the most well rounded offensive games on the Wildcats. I'd like to see Demps get a little more time than he has those far. He needs to play well on defense to keep himself on the court, but the kid is a natural scorer and that's huge. Health is a hopefully not an issue for Hearn who missed NU's last game. With the number of injuries NU's had the team now is without a doubt led by Reggie and Alex Marcotullio so hopefully Hearn can be on the court most of this game. Also, look to see if Nikola Cerina can play. With Sanjay Lumpkin once again out the added depth of Cerina's return could be a big boost for NU. He's also possibly someone who can add a little more offensive as Jared Swopshire has been more of a defensive oriented player of late.

Prediction: I have more hope for NU than many others it seems. Real Time RPI predicts NU to go 7-11 in the Big Ten and I really think that's not unreasonable. I think Demps scoring is a key and I think  Olah needs help form Cerina on the glass, but it could happen. That said, I struggle to see how NU can have enough fire power and size to best a very strong Michigan squad. Michigan, 70 Northwestern, 60