Northwestern Basketball: It’s Like Groundhog Day

Hmmm. This looked a lot like the Illinois game. Northwestern played hard and even outrebounded their opponent, but lack of offensive punch outside of Drew Crawford and John Shurna ended up costing the ‘Cats the game.

The positive today really was the hustle and rebounding that Northwestern showed. The negative was the fact that the center position with Davide Curletti was a non-factor and the ‘Cats really didn’t get much offense from Reggie Hearn or Dave Sobolewski either. Also, Northwestern missed some free throws early in the game and those misses are an issue in a two point game as they were in one point games vs Illinois and Michigan. The free throws and the number of silly turnovers were perhaps my biggest issue today as I thought that this wasn’t a very fundamentally sound game for NU. Sadly, that seems to have been the case since the loss to Illinois which was also the result of missing chances due to stupid turnovers and missed free throws.

Also like the Illinois game I’m shocked at NU’s last play. What the hell was that? Once it was clear that it was going nowhere with one timeout remaining I’m not sure why NU didn’t call one. It was pretty clear after Purdue switched when Sobolewski drove past a Crawford screen that whatever was planned wasn’t going to work. At that point a timeout needed to be called.

The lack of fundamental play from this team really has me frustrated and that last play looked so freaking stupid that I just want to throw things. Northwestern is now going to play Nebraska on Thursday to see who isn’t the worst team in the Big Ten. In a year when some people thought Northwestern was an NCAA Tournament team. That’s really bad.

Whether you agree or not it seems pretty clear that Bill Carmody will be fired at the end of this season. Personally, if I were Jim Phillips and I knew I was going to make that decision, I would seriously consider firing Carmody now. You’d get a look at what Tavaras Hardy, who by all reports is NU’s main recruiter as a coach, can do as a game coach and you’d also be able to start making subtle inquires for a national coaching search. At this point to sit through 11 more games where Bill Carmody is a lame duck in every way except an official announcement is just stupid. Let’s do something that actually makes it look like we want to move the program forward.

Wildcats Back at Home to Host Purdue

I went back and forth trying to decide on a headline for this entry. In the end I decided the simplest headline was the best. I’d considered headlines related to this game being kind of a “last stand” or “line in the sand” for the Northwestern basketball program’s 2012 NCAA Tournament hopes and potentially Bill Carmody’s job, but I’d rather step back from that talk for awhile and just watch the next three games Northwestern plays. On February 5, 2012 somewhere around 4PM Central Time we can get back into those questions, but I’m going to let these next three games play out without any big picture discussion. I’m just going to watch basketball. After watching that basketball I feel as though I’ll be able to give an accurate assessment of where this season is going.

Purdue and Northwestern are somewhat similar teams. However, NU’s health status has made NU play with a short hand these past few weeks. Nearly a full week off may help NU in that area. It is important NU have Alex Marcotullio able to go because I could see the 1-3-1 zone being useful at times vs Purdue and Marcotullio is the best Wildcat defender at the top of that zone. Purdue’s got some good shooters in Ryne Smith and DJ Byrd who both make over 40% of their threes and Robbie Hummel who makes 35%, but all three have had slumps at times and Hummel has really struggled of late. Now that probably means he’ll make something like 8-10 vs NU, but it seems like the ‘Cats might be catching Purdue at the right time. Also, Purdue is only 2-3 away from home and while the Illinois loss may haunt NU and Coach Carmody, the ‘Cats have been really good at home other than that game and the loss to powerhouse Baylor during this year (and really going back the last 2-3 years).

I think one of the major keys to the game is how NU handles Purdue’s pressure defense. The Boilermakers known for good defense with guards Kelsey Barlow and Jackson doing a great job other team’s perimeter players. However, NU should actually be able to out-athlete Smith, Byrd, and Hummel. If NU will get anything from its center position is always a question mark, but if it does, Purdue hasn’t lit the world on five with Travis Carroll or Sadi Marcius at the five spot. Maybe Davide Curletti can have another good game or maybe Luka Mirkovic can finally get his head removed from his ass, though, that seems like an operation which would be major surgery at this point.

At times I’ve written on here that I had no idea what to expect from a game. This is one of those. Northwestern and Purdue are both more than capable of winning this and many other games, however, both have failed to win games they should have and haven’t really played well of late. I’d like to think in such a game being at home and getting a crowd behind you helps. I predict: Northwestern, 68 Purdue, 65

It’s Still the Defense, Stupid.

There is a lot of blame to go around on this one, but as much as NU was just awful on offense to start this game the real facts are that this game was lost on defense. Minnesota was able to get whatever shots they wanted driving to the basket or passing the ball without much pressure from Northwestern and the result was a lot of Gopher points.

Northwestern still lacks the intensity needed on defense to be truly competitive in the Big Ten long term and they still don’t respond well when things go wrong. The most obvious example of this is Drew Crawford. Crawford has the ability to be a good player, but he tends to sulk around when things go bad and forces shots because he wants to score. Then on defense since he’s so upset he didn’t make a basket his athletic ability is negated as he’s too busy worrying about himself to actually guard anybody. I’d say Crawford and Luka Mirkovic are great examples of how lacking in mental toughness Northwestern’s basketball program is, but I don’t want anybody to think they’re the only examples. They just are the ones who show it the most with their body language as it changes 180 degrees based on if they’re playing well or not.

The other major issue is that it seems that for the most part NU is at a point where the only people who really want to shot the ball are Crawford, Shurna, and Marcotullio (who doesn’t even start). This makes defending NU very easy. At some point the rest of NU’s players need to be given the okay to take a shot. After all, as frustrated as Crawford’s out of control drives make me, I understand that he has not choice when three of his teammates pass up wide open looks.

The only good news about this loss is it’ll probably put a stop to any NCAA Tournament talk for Northwestern and it’s about time. This team is about as from being an NCAA Tournament team as five kids playing pick-up at the park. Actually, if those kids play defense and rebound they’re probably closer.

I expect Northwestern will win their next two games which are both at home brining their record to 4-5 in the Big Ten, but the fact is that along with not playing defense; not winning on the road also finishes NU off as far as NCAA Tournament hopes. I’m not going to get into what this means for the program’s coaching situation at this point, but obviously some people will say this game is evidence Bill Carmody needs to be let go. That’s all well and good, but the fact is we’ve seen this game probably at least 25 times before during Carmody’s tenure. Therefore, I find it hard to say this single game is reason enough to let him go. It certainly doesn’t help, though.

Wildcats Still Trying to Prove They Can Win on the Road

It’s another road test for Northwestern on Sunday and this one might prove an even bigger task to the depth-challenged Wildcats than their last contest in Madison. Minnesota enters the game with an identical 2-4 Big Ten mark as NU, but the Gophers have won two games in a row and feature a team which goes at least nine deep. For an NU team that is playing with basically seven healthy players that could be a major issue.

The Wildcats would probably be advised to slow this game down and play at a pace which forces Minnesota to guard them for the entire shot clock. If that happens, it would be prefect if the Gophers would overextend their defense and allow NU backdoor cuts with the shot clock running down.

The other advantage NU would have in slowing the game down is it might force them to work all the way through their offense instead of forcing shots as I thought they did vs Wisconsin.
Minnesota has to want to speed NU up and use their superior depth as an advantage. I’ve been really impressed with how Minnesota has fought through injuries and an extended losing streak at the start of conference play to reach the point they are at now. I don’t actually see either NU or Minnesota as an NCAA Tournament team right now, but the winner of this game is probably one at the moment the contest ends. They might not be one at the end of the season, but at least for the winner they enter the realistic discussion.

Look for Minnesota to try and use the athletic front line of Ralph Sampson III(8.2ppg) and Rodney Williams (10.6ppg) not only to score in the post but also to crash the glass. I really think one of the reasons teams shoot so well vs NU is because shooters aren’t worried about missing because they know their teammates have a great chance at an offensive rebound versus NU’s rebound-phobic front line. With that in mind, look for Julian Welch (10.4ppg) to potentially have a career game because he impresses me as the Gophers top shooter. I also wouldn’t sleep on guard Joe Coleman who is coming off a career game.

At this point Northwestern really needs to show me something to prove they are anything more than what they were at the end of last year—a middle of the pack NIT team. One of the ways to show this is to pick up a road win over a team that is at least as good as they are if not better. This really hasn’t been done by NU since the current seniors were freshmen, but it’s not impossible. The trouble to me is that NU just doesn’t seem to have the depth to deal with Minnesota’s constant pressure defense. At 100% NU would have probably beat Michigan at Michigan and maybe even Wisconsin at Wisconsin, but NU wasn’t then and isn’t now anywhere near 100%. I predict: Minnesota, 70 Northwestern, 58

It’s the Defense, Stupid.

*I've put all the key points of this post in bold so you don't have to read the whole thing if you don't want. Actually, just skip to the last line that’s all you need to read.

Until Northwestern learns to actually play consistent hard man-to-man defense they will never make the NCAA Tournament. Sadly, it doesn’t look like they’ll learn that lesson this year. This game was lost because Northwestern couldn’t stop Wisconsin. The game started with the Badgers making uncontested threes and the game was won when the Badgers made 7-of-8 shots, including several threes, at the start of the second half.

I can’t tell you how upset I am at the fact Northwestern can’t play defense. As many good things as we’ve seen from Northwestern in the last 4 years, the lack of the ability to play defense is a major problem. You can’t only focus on offense which is what it seems that not only Northwestern’s team does, but the media as well. If I have to hear one more time about how great a scoring duo John Shurna and Drew Crawford are while NU is getting craved up for easy basket after easy basket I’m going to vomit. The only thing worse is hearing about how this might be the year for NU to make the Big Dance. Guess what? IT"S NOT!!!!!!!!!!

Admittedly, there were some good things that happened in this game early such as seeing NU attack the basket and seeing a seemingly gaining confidence Dave Sobolewski who showed some nice assertiveness. I still think NU needs some special plays for John Shurna, say run him off some screens, when teams start focus on him, because I can’t stand the way Drew Crawford forces shots. Those shots are fine when 3 seconds are left on the shot clock, but not when 23 second are left and Crawford seems clueless to that fact.

Some other random thoughts on the game include that Luka Mirkovic was terrible and at this point NU is better with a small lineup than with him on the floor. Other people, Luka included if he’s going to play, need to start to look to score because teams are guarding Shurna and Crawford and if NU won’t run any special plays than they just won’t score. I don’t want to hear about how tough it is to win in Wisconsin because this Wisconsin team is not all that great other than Jordan Taylor and he played one of his best games of the year today.

Overall, I’m really just sick and tired of the inconsistency of Northwestern. They can’t handle success so they don’t really have that much. Looking ahead, the truth is thanks to the blown games vs Illinois and Michigan this is right now a team which is a lot closer to a bottom half NIT-seed than an NCAA Tournament bid. It’s sad, but it’s true and I’ll say that until NU wins a road Big Ten game then anybody who talks about this team as an NCAA Tournament team ought to have their head examined. The only place Northwestern is an NCAA Tournament team is Fantasy Island.

Can the ‘Cats Keep Wildcat Nation Smiling with a Win at Wisconsin?

As the Northwestern students rushed onto the court Saturday afternoon and Gus Johnson in his typical enthusiastic manner said, “Chicago’s…Big…Ten…Team!” (BTW, I’d have Johnson’s call on that in every NU promo from now until the Sun burns out). Wildcat Nation had to break out into a collective grin. The two losses the Wildcats suffered to Illinois and Michigan had left me (and I assume most of you) just sad. Not even upset. Just so sad. On Thursday after the Michigan loss I had people ask if I felt sick and I really think it was because I was just so depressed after seeing the Wildcats fail in what seemed like a defining game for this season that I simply didn’t look well. I know I’m way too invested in what happens with the ‘Cats and sincerely wish I had something else in my life with which to replace them as a priority, but I don’t and so I’m hoping that my depression from the Michigan loss can be totally replaced after a win Wednesday in Madison. Sure, the Michigan State win was great, but the losses to Illinois and Michigan right now are still haunting defeats. However, that can change. NU has a great chance to beat Wisconsin at the Kohl Center for the first time ever this week. In addition, Minnesota is an inconsistent team that I could see the Wildcats being able to play with when they travel up to the Twin Cities on Sunday.

For now though let’s keep focused on what’s going on in Madison. This is a talented Wisconsin team, but they’re underachieving right now. Especially on offense. Rumors are even circulating that star guard Jordan Taylor is playing hurt and that’s the reason for his only shooting 39% overall and only 31% from three point range. Whatever the case, Taylor has looked far more mortal this season than in the last two and his struggles have turned into team struggles as the Badgers have failed to score. When the Badgers have scored they’ve done so by supporting Taylor’s 13.8ppg with Jared Breggren (10.9ppg) inside and two recruits who chose Wisconsin over Northwestern Josh Gasser (48.9% 3PT) and Ben Brust (40.2% 3PT) from the outside. Gasser’s probably been the most consistent of the guards as Brust has had some big games such as seven threes versus UNLV and had some days where he seriously struggled. Honestly, though, I think NU can out shoot Wisconsin if it comes down to that. My bigger concern is on the offensive glass. Davide Curletti played the game his life on Saturday getting NU some second chance points and helping contain Michigan State’s front court from getting easy putbacks. However, I question the reality of getting the same game out of Curletti again. I think NU will need something good out of Luka Mirkovic and Davide as they battle the rebounding of Breggren, Ryan Evans, and the aptly named Mike Bruesewitz who pull down five-plus boards. Also, don’t discount Gasser as a rebounder. He’s very active around the glass. I have to say that although Josh Gasser obviously isn’t the dominate player that Andrew Luck is that as much as the Wildcats might lament losing out on Luck to Stanford in football, losing Gasser was just as bad for basketball. Based on who the ‘Cats had on the team these last two years and Gasser’s shooting and active play I truly think he might have been the missing piece to NU making the tournament. Of course, he’s a Badger there is nothing that can be done about it. I can tell you, though, I’m going to be really really pissed if he’s the difference in this game.

Looking at the game, NU used the 1-3-1 all game vs MSU, but Wisconsin is a different type of team. They’re a little better at taking care of the ball and have the potential to shoot better. However, if the Badgers continue to slump shooting then perhaps the 1-3-1 could be the key to a win. One thing we know for sure is that taking care of the ball will be key as this should be a low scoring game. I know Northwestern can win this game. However, with Bill Carmody’s 0-12 record in Madison and the way NU get hammered by Wisconsin last year I can’t really honestly predict an NU victory. Plus, Wisconsin is by far the most physical team in the Big Ten and NU seems to basically have six players right now with Alex Marcotullio likely out, JerShon Cobb at something like 70%, and Nick Fruendt as the primary sub at guard and Luka Mirkovic as the primary sub in the front court. That’s tough. I think this is a close game and I think NU can win, but they’ll need a lot of breaks which might not happen in Mad Town. I Predict: Wisconsin, 55 Northwestern, 50

Rebound. Yes!

They finally did it. The Wildcats rebounded both in basketball terms and mentally to get their second quality win of the year. It’s easy to look at today’s game and then look back and really be frustrated by the losses NU suffered to Illinois and Michigan, but you can’t do that. You need to focus on today’s success and use that as a potential jumping off point for a sustained run of success.

The Wildcats still ran into some old problems such as their continued struggles at the free throw line and they seem to have issues at times recognizing that they are being doubled teamed and as a result miss getting the ball to open shooters. However, some of the other major issues the Wildcats have had such as turnover trouble and rebounding were taken care of today. The ‘Cats turned the ball over just seven times compared to MSU’s 14 and while Michigan State did outrebound NU by 12, the Spartans didn’t have many three or four shot possessions which just cut the heart out of NU’s effort to sustain momentum. I truly believe if NU plays as well on the glass as they did today and shoots free throws as well as they can that Northwestern will have a chance in virtually any game they play.

Part of Northwestern’s success on the glass today came as a result of finally getting production from the center spot. Davide Curletti ended the day with a team high six rebounds but it wasn’t just the number. It was that twice he turned offensive rebounds into points. It was that his hustle keep the ball alive and seemed to inspire NU’s other guys to hit the glass.

Thanks to Curletti getting 17 points and finally giving NU a center who was willing to take and make an outside shot, the game seemed to open up for NU’s other players to drive the lane. Dave Sobolewski found his way to the hoop several time as did John Shurna, Drew Crawford, and Reggie Hearn. While Shurna and Crawford were, as one would expect, the big scorers in the game, you can’t discount the performance from the other guys on NU’s team. Especially when you consider that Shurna, Crawford, Curletti, Hearn, and Sobolewski basically played the entire second half thanks to Luka Mirkovic’s ineffectiveness and JerShon Cobb and Alex Marcotullio’s injuries. Those issues also caused Nick Fruendt to get off the bench for seven minutes today and while he really didn’t go anything on offense or get a rebound, he wasn’t abused by superior athletes as so many people have feared he would end up being if he played.

I mentioned NU still struggled from the free throw line, but John Shurna did make 10-of-11 which was huge because he wasn’t hitting a ton from the field. This once again brings up the question why he wasn’t allowed to shoot the technical against Michigan, but I’ll try my best not to dwell on that fact. The guy who did shoot that technical was Drew Crawford and he had a nice day today as well (though only made 1-of-2 free throws) making some nice drives to the basket, mid-range shots, and hitting three threes. Dave Sobolewski took care of the ball with seven assists and only one turnover.

I’m not sure NU can go a real long winning streak without getting healthier, but it was good to see that even without Marcotullio to sub for him in the second half that Reggie Hearn kept making plays. He pulled down some key rebounds and made a couple nice baskets around the hoop which were in key in NU’s ability to hold the lead.

Overall this was a great and much needed win for the mental state of not only this team but the NU fans as well.

If the 'Cats can win at Wisconsin next week then I'll be willing to get back to talking tournament.

Oh yeah, and if the Big Ten is willing to let us wear those black jerseys at home I say we wear them every game until we lose. They've got to be okay on the road becasue they're a dark color and I guess based on the fact we wore them, that we're allowed to wear them at home too.