Wednesday, January 30, 2013

Northwestern Once Again Doesn’t Shoot Well Enough to Win

I think Michigan is a great team. I’m not sure they can beat Kansas and Indiana will give them trouble due to an inside game Michigan lacks, but if the four best teams make the Final Four then Michigan will make the Final Four. With that in mind I think one has to be pleased with on Northwestern actually managed to many things well tonight and didn’t look nearly as outclassed as the score would indicate. The problem was once again that Northwestern has in the last several games been unable to make shots. That doesn’t just mean three pointers, though, that missing from the NU offense creates problems. It includes making inside shots and free throws as well. I’m almost able to excuse the inside shots because NU’s freshmen big guys are still learning what works and what doesn’t in the Big Ten and Michigan pretty much was allowed to physically beat up NU yet very few fouls were called. You can’t blame the refs for this loss, but NU probably deserved to go to the free throw line on several of those missed layups.

Of course, the free throw line is not a place Northwestern wants to be right now. I can’t get over how bad a free throw shooting team this is right now and I know it’s all mental. There is literally nothing that can be done to improve NU’s free throw shooting other than the players on the team simply deciding not to get too frightened to perform every time they go to the line. If he weren’t the only ballhandler on the team I would suggest benching Dave Sobolewski. His mental state right now is so poor it almost wants to bring you to tears. You just have to feel terrible for the kid. I mean nobody deserves to be so mentally lost. It you’re a golf fan the comparison for Sobo is Ian Baker-Finch and if you’re a baseball fan it’s Steve Sax. They and Sobolewski are guys who have/had the talent to be very good players but whose brains essentially ruined them.

Three point shooting is a problem as well, but I have to be honest and say that this NU team shouldn’t be expected to be a consistent three point shooting team. There isn’t one player on the roster who statistically is consistent three point threat. Reggie Hearn and Alex Marcotullio have proven to be streaky shooters who can have big games, but neither is night in and night out going to be a guy that can regularly knock down a shot. Kale Abrahamson was supposed to be that guy but he can’t seem to get shots and hasn’t made them when he has. Tre Demps offers some hope, but he also seems to be a guy who is mostly hit or miss. With that in mind you just have to hope NU has enough good days left that they pull out some wins in the second half of the Big Ten schedule. Matching the 3-6 record they had through he first nine games would probably be decent considering the challenges this team faces, but due to a slightly lighter schedule I’d like to see NU post four wins in the back half.

Monday, January 28, 2013

Significant Number of Opportunities and Learning Experiences Left for NU

“Many people erroneously think they have only one chance to succeed, and if they miss that chance, they are doomed to failure. In fact, most people have several opportunities to succeed.”

– Bill Walsh

The quote above comes from the man who is probably the most successful football coach ever. He might not have the most titles ever, though, he won plenty, but his style of football changed the way football is played and paved the way for today’s spread attacks. What’s interesting is Walsh didn’t immediately succeed in coaching and was actually fired from his first job as an offensive coordinator. What’s the point of this story? The point is that we’re all sometimes to quick to panic when something doesn’t go right. We’re quick to assume failure after one setback. I was crushed when Northwestern lost to Nebraska on Saturday because I thought it was a lost chance at success, but we can’t assume that’s NU’s only chance at success because it’s not. Northwestern has 10 regular season contests plus the Big Ten Tournament still to play. That’s a significant number of opportunities left for NU to get quality wins and for the team’s young players to learn about what it’s like to play in the Big Ten.

When Northwestern takes on #1 Michigan on Wednesday night the popular sentiment will be they have no chance to win. I can’t say I’m particularly optimistic about their chances myself, but it is an opportunity to succeed that I hope the team will relish. Michigan beat NU by 28 points when they last played. NU was playing without Reggie Hearn at that point and got limited minutes from Tre Demps and Alex Marcotullio due to injury, but a 28 point beating is a 28 point beating. Right from the start of the game Michigan looked far superior to NU in every way. That probably hasn’t changed with Hearn back and Demps and Marcotullio more able to play. However, NU seems to have learned some lessons since that day. The Wildcats have learned the importance of playing constantly hard on defense which helped them defeat Illinois and Minnesota. They’ve also learned how critical it is they make shots as failure to connect from the outside and the free throw line doomed them versus Indiana and Nebraska.

These lessons and the opportunities NU will have to succeed are what I think should be important to fans the rest of this season. I have no doubt I’ll get all worked up after multiple losses the rest of the season, but I’ll try to keep in perspective what I’m seeing. This is a team playing without its two best players and without another potential major contributor. It’s a team that while it features some veterans is giving heavy minutes to young players as well. As those young players fight through the challenges of the Big Ten they’ll be successful at times and fail at times. Sometimes both will be shocking. For example, I expected NU to go 1-1 last week, but I assumed the loss would be to Minnesota and win would be at Nebraska. Does that mean this team can beat Michigan and lose to Purdue? It might not be likely, but it is certainly possible (and given NU’s history maybe it is more likely than we all might think).

In the end what is important is we see progress from NU and they take advantage of enough of those opportunities to succeed that the program continues the forward momentum it has developed. That looked unlikely right after Drew Crawford went out, but I have seen enough from this team that I now believe 15 or 16 total wins are possible and I’d consider that a positive season. Plus, at this point I believe even if NU plays in the CBI postseason tournament (which I’d say is likely if NU reaches 16 wins) that they’re making solid progress and preparing for the opportunities to succeed they will have next season when Crawford, Cobb, and Lumpkin return from injury.

Prediction: I think Michigan’s fire power is too much for NU, but I think the ‘Cats actually improve by more than 10 points from their last beatdown by UM. Michigan, 70 Northwestern, 53

Saturday, January 26, 2013

Northwestern fails to make shots

The simple fact of this game is that Nebraska shot the ball better than Northwestern. Not much better, but better enough to get a win in an ugly game. The other fact is this game shows that despite all the positive progress Northwestern has made they're still not a good enough team to really think they'll do anything other than go home after their last game in the Big Ten Tournament.

The problem is Northwestern doesn't have enough good shooters and they don't have any reliable shooters. Dave Sobolewski had a nice game but nobody else for NU did much and even Sobolewski missed a lot of shots and once again was brutal from the free throw line. Northwestern as a teamwas brutal from everywhere. They couldn't make threes, twos, or free throws. This game was a total letdown and a game that at first seemed to be a game that would be close, but which NU would have a chance in eventually became a blowout win for Nebraska. Part of it was the fact NU couldn't hit shots. Another part was the fact that NU stopped getting rebounds and Nebraska had a shooting day which was above their average.

NU played okay on defense for the first half, but things just didn't go right in the second half. Not only did they not shoot well, but even when they seemed to make a nice play on defense things didn't go NU's way. The 'Cats tipped a lot of passes in the 1-3-1 that somehow ended up in Nebraska's hands. And they then usually ended up in the basket.

It was interesting that Kale Abrahamson and Nikola Cerina only played in garbage time for NU. I also think that Mike Turner continues to really struggle.

Finally, look at Nebraska's investment in basketball and look at NU's. This game will resume the Bill Carmody job watch, but honestly considering that NU gives him no institutional support I tend to think that if Morty and Dr. Jim want to fire him they ought to fire themselves too. 

Friday, January 25, 2013

Road Trip to Nebraska Offers Opportunities for NU

For the first time in 37 years Northwestern will travel to Nebraska on Saturday. It is a game which offers NU a chance to move to .500 in the Big Ten and to continue what has been a very impressive road season.

This is a game which Northwestern will enter as a favorite. Nebraska has struggled this year and currently has only one Big Ten win. That win came over Penn State last weekend and was a game more lost by Penn State than won by Nebraska. What's gone wrong for UN-L? Turnovers are probably the biggest issue. They've turned the ball over more than they given out assists this year. A second issue is shooting. Nebraska has struggled to generate offense and is especially bad from three point game where they make less than 30% of their attempts. All this doesn't mean Nebraska doesn't have some talented players, but they're a team which isn't deep and which doesn't seem to have enough fire power to really score enough to get many Big Ten wins.

The best player Nebraska has is center Brandon Ubel. At 6-10 he's big enough to cause NU trouble on the glass and he's got some athleticism as well. He is not some,y a big guy who plays with his back to the basket and never moves from the lane. He will be another good challenge for NU centers Alex Olah and Mike Turner. They've faced nothing but tough games of late and they're really played okay. I'll also be curious to see if Nikola Cerina gets any playing time. He saw his first real significant action since his injury on Thursday. Will he be able to play more? Will it help if he does? You'd certainly think another big body would help NU as they battle in the Big Ten.

Nebraska also features guard Dylan Talley who is probably the team's best all around player. He's a guy who has the ability to have a big game and NU needs to make sure they contain him as it would be unfortunate if he got hot and had a game which beat NU's zone single handily as has happened
with certain players in the past.

Of course, maybe NU can stay in man to man this game. Nebraska isn't top to bottom dramatically better than NU, but with as much as they turn the ball over and struggle from three point range I tend to think that the 1-3-1 would be useful in this contest.

Prediction: I haven't been as on the money as I have in the past prediction-wise, but I'm hoping I'll on target this time around. I see this as a game NU wins because of Nebraska's lack of consist scoring. Plus, NU should take advantage of some turnovers. Still, I don't expect a real high scoring game unless NU gets hot from three point range. Northwestern, 58 Nebraska, 50

Wednesday, January 23, 2013

Wildcats Finally Get Big Home Win: Upset 12th Ranked Gophers

Behind a great effort from Jared Swopshire who recorded 16 points and 8 rebounds and a great team effort on defense Northwestern became the first team outside of the top-10 to beat the Gophers this season. This moves Northwestern to 2-1 in their last three games and 3-4 overall in the Big Ten. With a game at Nebraska on tap for Saturday this Northwestern team which many (myself included) feared could struggle to reach four Big Ten wins will have a chance to pick up their fourth Big Ten win in just eight games.

How has Northwestern turned around a season that looked lost just three weeks ago? I think Swopshire is the major key. When he asserts himself NU seems to be able to compete with anybody. He was great tonight in getting points, especially early, but he was even better on defense and on the glass. In a game where Minnesota was almost certain to out rebound NU, Swopshire did a very nice job keeping NU at least respectable in that area and playing overall nice defense.

That defense was assisted greatly by the move by Coach Bill Carmody to switch to the 1-3-1. I don't think NU was bad in man to man, but that defense wasn't going to change momentum nor make up for Minnesota's athletic advantage. With the 1-3-1 NU forced Minnesota to commit turnovers before they even got a chance to get offensive rebounds and when they did take shots many of those chances were so poor that they were no threat to NU at all.

NU also got some very nice games from Reggie Hearn and Tre Demps. Hearn was about the only player on either team who could make a free throw and he put the game away from NU at the line. I also thought he showed great hustle which resulted in him getting some easy transition buckets which were big for NU. Demps got his first start and while he didn't have his best game he scored 10 points and made three plays I thought were huge in the outcome of the game. He made a shot right before halftime which gave NU momentum. He made a clutch three to put NU up 43-39 when NU was clinging to a own point lead that ignited the NU run and he got fouled and made two free throws on a great out of bounds play when NU had just four seconds to get a shot.

Really as bad as NU got beat on the boards, I think the major criticism of this game was free throw shooting. NU missed nearly as many free throws as they made in this game. That type of free throw shooting will cost, and has cost, NU games. That's an area the team must improve in. Dave Sobolewski does so many things well, and showed great command of the game tonight, but if he's the guy who has the play in his hand regularly he has to make free throws.

Overall, though, a great effort by Coach Carmody and NU. They earned this win over a talented and well coached Minnesota squad.

Monday, January 21, 2013

Northwestern Faces Rematch with 12th Ranked Minnesota

My gut reaction when thinking about Wednesday’s game is that at least after the game is over Northwestern won’t have to face Minnesota again unless they play in the Big Ten Tournament (which always seems to happen) as I feel like Minnesota might be the worst matchup of any Big Ten team for the Wildcats. At Minnesota earlier this month NU was in the game at halftime down just 17-14 and could have had the led if they’d shot the ball better, but in the end Minnesota’s superior athleticism won out in the second half.



I think Minnesota is probably the most athletic team in the Big Ten and given NU’s lack of athleticism that makes Minnesota a tough matchup for the ‘Cats. I do think Northwestern is now playing better defense than they were when they first faced Minnesota and while Northwestern isn’t ever going to be impressive in rebounding I feel like the effort in that area has been better of late. All that said, I think Minnesota is going to give Northwestern some significant problems. The Gopher front court of Trevor Mbakwe and Rodney Williams is so athletic that they have he ability to totally dominate Northwestern on the glass. That didn’t happen in the first half of the first game these two teams played because NU slowed down the game enough that Minnesota just didn’t have that many chances for rebounds, but once the game’s pace picked up you could see how those two could control the glass.

Minnesota also has some good guards. They got a great shooting performance from Austin Hollins last time they played NU but at various times this year it has been point guard Andre Hollins or Joe Coleman who has led the Minnesota backcourt. Perhaps the balanced attack the Gophers have is part of the reason why they are a top 10 team. You can’t assume that stopping one player will be enough because another will step up and beat you. In fact, Andre Hollins was pretty much shutdown by NU last time, but the play of Austin more than made up for that fact.

Prediction: Northwestern’s coming off a good effort in a loss to Indiana which might at least get some fans to show up at Welsh-Ryan Arena. The fact the game is at 8PM CT on a Wednesday night is probably good for student attendance and bad for any visiting Gopher fans who might want to make the trip. Maybe that does something to create a home court advantage at Welsh-Ryan which wasn’t present on Sunday vs IU. Of course, home court advantage or not Northwestern hasn’t played well at home this season. This is a surprise because in the past NU has at least defended their home court even though they’ve been poor on the road. Now NU is a sub-.500 home team but has won 5-of-6 away from Welsh-Ryan. To find a way to surprise and please the home crowd NU will need to make shots. The biggest difference between NU’s road and home success is NU seems to shoot the ball better away from home. That makes no sense, but NU couldn’t hit anything for a good portion of the Indiana game yet made virtually everything in the first half vs Illinois in Champaign. I’m still waiting to see Kale Abrahamson have a big shooting night as I think he might be the most capable of anyone of just catching fire. I’d also like to see Dave Sobolewski hit some threes consistently. The only game he really has was in NU’s win over Penn State which was, of course, in Happy Valley. Jared Swopshire has shown signs of life the past two games and he’ll be a key player on Wednesday both on offense and on the glass. Also, freshman Alex Olah needs to take advantage of the fact that while he’s not nearly as athletic as his Minnesota counterparts he’ll have about four inches on them in terms of height. He has to be able to convert shots from five feet away. In the end I don’t like NU’s chances in this game but maybe they’ll finally show up for 40 minutes in a home game. A few years ago this was a game you’d think NU would have real shot to pull the upset, but you can’t believe that now. Minnesota, 70 Northwestern, 56

Sunday, January 20, 2013

Northwestern Puts Forth Good Effort vs IU but Takes Loss Thanks to Poor Shooting

Northwestern did play as hard vs Indiana as they did vs Illinois. As a result they had a chance to win the game in the second half but they simply didn't shoot ball well enough to finish their comeback. Perhaps, the problem was they didn't shoot well enough in the first half so they were such a hole that a come back was too hard to accomplish. NU won the second half by 6 points, but being in a 14 point hole at the break was too much to overcome. The reason for that hole was NU's 1-of-10 three point shooting in the first half. The majority of those looks were good and if NU had made just half of them the game would have been totally different, but they didn't so it wasn't. I just don't think this is a good shooting team. I think the reason Coach Bill Carmody keeps trying to play Kale Abrahamson is that he thinks he might be able to have a hot shooting game, but right now Kale struggles to get open looks against the physical Big Ten defense he faces each night.

Aside from the poor three point shooting in the first half, NU also missed too many free throws. Most of those misses belonged to Dave Sobolewski. I don't understand how NU's 6-1 point guard is a worse free throw shooter than Indiana's 7-0 center, but that's the case. It's somewhat embarrassing and it's cost NU on several occasions. If Sobolewski doesn't become a better free throw shooter I wouldn't be shocked to see his playing time reduced next season if Jaren Sina lives up to the hype surrounding him.

On the positive side, I thought NU's defense both in man-to-man and the 1-3-1 was very good. The Wildcats communicated and hustled and did what they needed to in order to slow down the fast paced IU attack. I even thought NU rebounded decently well. I mean one had to assume Indiana would win the battle on the glass, but they didn't dominate that area of the game enough that I felt it was a major factor.

Overall, I thought that NU was well prepared for this game. Coach Carmody put together a solid game plan and NU could have been in the game from start to finish but for the poor shooting early. The second half which Jared Swopshire had needs to be how he plays every minute of every game. Reggie Hearn had another great game and is clearly feeling better and it shows both on defense and offense. I loved the fact that at least Reggie made his free throws. I do think NU needs to find a way to get some offensive production from the center position. Those guys have chances to take shots, but clearly don't have the confidence to take or make them. A center who could hit a jump shot would be a tremendous help for the Wildcats.

Northwestern has a tough game coming up with Minnesota, but they then face Nebraska and Purdue who aren't that much better than they are. If they can somehow win two of those three games there might be a chance of NU still sneaking into some sort of postseason tournament.