A Way to Early Look at NU’s NCAA Tournament Chances

One recent projection of the NCAA Tournament field had Northwestern in the Big Dance as #9-seed. That’s very exciting, but the truth is NU has a massively long way to go if they want to make the school’s first trip to March Madness. The good news is thanks a very strong Big Ten schedule Northwestern will get the opportunity to do that work. The bad news is it could take a lot of work and most of it will have to wait till the new year.

Right now Northwestern is sitting at #94 in the latest RPI rankings. NU has been steadily dropping over the past few days. Some of that is from the ‘Cats not playing, but some is from simply playing teams who aren’t going to be listed as quality wins come March. One of the ways the committee ranks teams is their record against the top-50 and the top-100 RPI rated teams. Currently, Northwestern is 0-0 against that group. They’re 1-0 and against the top-150 with a win over #137 Georgia Tech. This isn’t meant to be negative, but it is meant to make sure we as fans understand where we are right now. The majority of Northwestern opponents so far this season have been rated below #150 nationally. Their next opponent, Long Island, currently sits at #196. The next, American University, is #172. Essentially, unless some of NU’s past opponents pull some upsets then the ‘Cats might win and still slip in the RPI.

In terms of the pre-Big Ten season the game NU needs to target is the expected matchup versus St. Johns on December 21st. The Red Storm currently sit at RPI spot #24 and that will be NU’s third legit road game on the year. Were it not for NU having recorded 40% of their wins on the road thus far this season they might not be in the top-100 of the RPI themselves. Thankfully, the wins over #281 NIU and #319 UTPA aren’t as meaningless as the might have been because they did come on the road.

Bottom line, though, when it comes to Selection Sunday unless NU wins the Big Ten Tournament they probably need at least six (and maybe more) wins over top-100 in order to just be considered for the NCAA Tournament. A win over St. Johns would give the ‘Cats one. That means would need to record at least five major upsets in Big Ten and probably get to an overall Big Ten record of 10-8 or at worst 9-9. That’s possible, but it’ll be tough. The good news is that the league’s difficulty increases NU’s chance of gaining respect even if they finish just .500 overall in league play. The bad news getting to .500 may be tough. The Big Ten is the #3 rated conference right now, but that’ll go up once league play starts. Especially if a team like Indiana becomes a surprise success as I think they might become. Essentially to see NU’s name in the NCAA Tournament bracket I think we need to hope that not only do the ‘Cats do their job with a number of upsets starting in late December and running till early March, but that teams like Creighton (currently #162) and Georgia Tech pull themselves together and pull some upsets themselves to make NU’s wins over them look good.

Road Woes Continue as NU’s Season Finishes with 76-64 loss to Rhode Island

Well, that’s it. Northwestern’s season ends at 20-14 with a first round NIT loss to Rhode Island. If you’ve watched Northwestern all season you can’t be too surprised with the result of this game, but you have to be frustrated that Northwestern did virtually nothing to correct the defensive problems they’ve suffered through all season.

Northwestern’s inability to play defense has been a recurring theme on this blog all season. Once again the Wildcats couldn’t play man-to-man at all. They again switched on every screen and as a result found themselves in disastrous mismatches. The number of times Michael Thompson got himself caught on a 6-8 or 7-0 forward and was forced to foul or allow an easy basket was utterly ridiculous. The 1-3-1 was probably even worse as the number of open looks Akeen Richmond, URI’s only shooter, got was as ridiculous as having Thompson try to guard 7-0 Will Martell. The 1-3-1 also forced Thompson into trouble because as a result of URI not being turnover prone, which had to be in the scouting report, they passed well and threw repeated lob passes over the top which resulted in easy dunks and layups. This problem was also probably somewhat compounded by the fact that Luka Mirkovic was out with a bad back and Kyle Rowley couldn’t rotate down as quickly as Mirkovic could have. Still, that’s no excuse for basically letting a team beat you in the second half with layups and free throws. The number of free throws URI got was astronomical. Yes, a few came late when NU had to foul, but plenty came earlier. The reason: NU can’t move their feet on defense so they just grab guys.

Basically, I’m pretty sure five people off the street could play the Northwestern defense just as effective as NU’s scholarship basketball players. I mean I can grab people and not be in position very well when playing pickup games. I don’t really blame the players, though. They have enough talent to be better. This is a serious coaching deficiency which needs to be addressed. I’m sure a number of other people will use this loss to go strongly after Bill Carmody. I’ll have my grades for all position groups (guards, forwards, centers) and coaches in the next couple weeks. All I will say now on Carmody is that his performance this year was not in my opinion up to the standard he set last season and showed in his stronger years past. If I were Jim Phillips I’d feel reasonably obligated to give Carmody an extension, but I’d want at least one assistant replaced with defensive expert and I wouldn’t extend him past two years.

A big positive for NU was that this contest was postseason game. That hasn’t happened much in NU Basketball. However, as the last team in the NIT, I think you could argue Northwestern would have been more evenly matched with a CBI opponent. I’d also offer congratulations to Drew Crawford who posted his second consecutive double-double with 12 points and 12 rebounds tonight. Also, Kyle Rowley had a serviceable game with 7 points and 7 rebounds stepping in for the injured Luka Mirkovic.

Unfortunately, Rowley’s missed free throws and a number of missed shots from Crawford did hurt. Crawford and John Shurna needed to do a much better job converting three pointers for NU to win, but they constantly missed fairly open looks. Michael Thompson did get 24 points and kept NU in the game (to a point) almost by himself. Sadly, Jeremy Nash’s offense disappeared towards the end of the season and it didn’t reappear tonight. In NU’s biggest wins this season Nash scored big points, but since about the middle of February he hasn’t served as an offensive weapon. I was also disappointed that John Shurna finished the year in a slump as well. Like Craig Moore last season, one of the Wildcats best offensive weapons, he struggled in the Big Ten Tournament and the one NIT game. That probably contributed to those defeats. Northwestern isn’t deep enough to seriously believe someone is going to come off the bench and make up for a cold shooting Shurna.

It’ll be a long offseason now for the Wildcats. For the second straight year they’ll be kicking themselves for a number missed chances to go beyond the NIT. Last year NU lost games in the final minutes to loose out on a tourney bid. This year they lost games in the final stretch of the season. It’s awfully depressing. Perhaps the reason has to do with that lack of depth. If that is the case the addition of JerShon Cobb and the return of Kevin Coble and Jeff Ryan will help. Next year the ‘Cats should be 10-deep with ease.

For now, though, these losses hurt. It’ll be hard to enjoy basketball for the next few days knowing that NU should still be playing. Eventually, I’ll get over the pain and enjoy the tournament, but part of me won’t even want to do so.

I suppose in the meantime NU fans can concern themselves with NU’s women’s basketball team playing a WNIT game tomorrow at home and the women’s lacrosse season which should see the ‘Cats contend for a 6th consecutive title. There is also spring football and the fun Dan Persa/Evan Watkins debate should start soon. In the end, though, what I really want to see from Northwestern athletics is an NCAA Tournament bid. I’ve waited more than a quarter century for such an event. Given that, I suppose I can wait another 365 days.

Rhode Island up 37-30 at halftime

I've had about enough of what Northwestern calls defense. URI is up 7 points because NU left Richmond, URI's only good shooter, open in the zone and because when NU tried to play man-to-man they switched and it put Michael Thompson on the center who he fouled for a three point play. The failure of man-to-man makes me the most upset. This has been a problem all season but nothing has been done to correct it.


Also Kyle Rowley dunked, but I really hope that isn't the last positive feeling NU fans have tonight.

Game 34: Northwestern Wildcats @ Rhode Island

The Matchup: Northwestern (20-13) @ Rhode Island (23-9)

Location: Ryan Center (Kingston, RI)

TV: ESPNU (6:00 PM CT Wednesday March 17th, 2010)
Radio: WGN AM 720

Fun Fact: Northwestern is 2-4 all time in the postseason. They are 1-0 on neutral courts, 1-1 at home, and 0-3 on the road.

About the Game
Well, here we are, ready for the postseason for the second year in a row. Yeah, it’s a bit disappointing it isn’t the NCAA Tournament, but overall after Kevin Coble’s injury most realists would have predicted NU would wind up in the NIT. The problem is the Wildcats put themselves, and us, in a position where talking about the Big Dance wasn’t unreasonable. They then lost games to Iowa, Penn State, and Indiana and it looked like the NIT was a question mark. Now, the ‘Cats are the final at-large team into the NIT and will travel to Kingston, Rhode Island to take on the URI Rams. Despite URI’s 2-seed and NU’s 7-seed, this is a game Northwestern can win, but they’ll need to put forth a very strong effort.

If you told me you had ten seconds to learn about the game and asked what team NU has played does URI compare to I’d answer, “Minnesota.” It’s not an exact comparison. URI turns the ball over less and shoots worse. They also can’t rebound as well as the Gophers, but the style of play is similar to what NU sees from Tubby Smith’s team. This concerns me somewhat as NU has struggled with Minnesota under Tubby, but they did beat the once Golden Gophers this year and last, though, both times in Evanston.

What makes Minnesota and Rhode Island similar? They both are teams who aren’t great in half court offense, but who score a lot of points off pressure. The Wildcats should anticipate seeing full court press on Wednesday night. I believe NU can handle pressure, but they’ll need Michael “Juice” Thompson to stay out of foul trouble and Jeremy Nash and Drew Crawford to stay cool when pressured in the backcourt. URI and Minnesota are also similar in that their half court defense features of number of players who make up for other defensive deficiencies by blocking shots. 6-8 forward Delroy James reminds me a lot of Minnesota’s Damien Johnson. James scored 12.4ppg, grabs 5.3 rpg, and blocks 1.1 shots. The Rams also have a 7-0 foot center in Will Martell. Martell converts 59.3% of his shots and records 1.2bpg, but his limited minutes per game (22.6) shows he might be prone to foul trouble or exhaustion. Luka Mirkovic will need to keep the pressure on Martell without committing stupid fouls.

6-4 guard Keith Cothran is URI’s top scorer at 14.6ppg. He only makes 32.5% of his threes, though, so you can bet he’ll want to attack the basket. I strongly recommend NU play the 1-3-1 zone against the Rams. These guys look like they’d eat alive the mismatches which could exist in the switching man-to-man, but their 33.3% team three point percentage makes me believe the risk-reward scenario of the 1-3-1 is worth the risk. The only very scary shooting threat for the Rams is Akeem Richmond. The 6-1 backup guard comes off the bench to make 39.2% of his threes. He must be guarded closely and closed out on. Point guard Marquis Jones is at 35.6% from three, but doesn’t take as many shots. With 132 assists this year, it seems clear Jones falls into the category of pass-first point guard.

Prediction:
6-6 forward Lamonte Ulmer wasn’t mentioned above, but his 52.7 FG% means that he can convert close or medium range shots. Most of the Rams have similar numbers and that worries me. I don’t think the matchup/switching man-to-man would be good to play, but if URI gets the ball into the guts of the 1-3-1 they’ll be able to score at will. I so wish Northwestern knew how to play real man-to-man, but they don’t. Maybe Bill Carmody can hire Todd Lickliter as an assistant. If nothing else, his Iowa teams did play defense. This game will be close. URI probably won’t have a great crowd. I’d guess around 4,000 which will make the Ryan Center just over half full. However, the game is still in URI’s gym where they are 12-3. Northwestern is 2-8 in true road games. I don’t know why NU plays so badly on the road. They actually started well away from home with a win at N.C. State, a narrow loss at Illinois, and a win at Michigan, but for some reason since then the ‘Cats have looked lost away from Welsh-Ryan. I think the game will be close, but at this point I can’t pick Northwestern to win a road game. URI, 64 Northwestern, 60

Northwestern's Postseason History: A Review

Kip Kirkpatrick made a big play in NU's 1994 NIT win over DePaul.

At this time I want to review Northwestern's history in the postseason. Sadly, it shouldn't take you that long to read this post...

The first postseason game in Northwestern’s history sent the Wildcats on a short road trip to the Rosemont Horizon in Rosemont, Illinois. Despite the excitement, one look at a calendar might have been enough to convince even the most optimistic of fans some sort of curse hung over the Wildcats program. After seventy-eight years, the Wildcats were finally playing in the postseason. Their opponent was Notre Dame—on St. Patrick’s Day.

Despite fate's seeming alignment with their opponent, the Wildcats managed to defeat the Irish. Led by the play of Jim Stack, Andre Goode, Michael Jenkins (the first one), and fellow senior Art Aaron the Wildcats cruised to a 71-57 victory. It’s the most lopsided score in the school’s postseason history win or lose.

Before getting into the next game, I want to address an issue. Many players, coaches, and fans use the phrases “we could have won” and “we should have won” interchangeably. Personally, I tend to draw a distinction between the two. To me “we could have won” means both teams played to the best of their abilities and the victorious side was fortunate the clock hit zero with them ahead, because if the game had lasted another five minutes, the outcome might have turned. Most importantly, if you have to say “we could have won” there is nothing to feel bad about.

On the other hand, “we should have won” is a phrase filled with frustration and regret. From my point of view, this unfortunate combination of words can be used to describe two types of losses. The first is a game in which a team was in position to win, but made a series of late mistakes which allowed their opponent to turn an apparent loss into a victory. The second is even more depressing. In this instance, some odd occurrence of bad luck caused a sure win to turn into a loss. The winning team never admits such an occurrence was more luck than skill, but the losing side knows fate, not fitness, doomed them. A good example of this occurred in a college baseball super-regional game a few years back. In this contest, Cal State Fullerton advanced to the College World Series when the opposing pitcher balked in the winning run while intentionally walking a Fullerton hitter. As much as they might have wanted to, Fullerton’s players, coaches, and fans could not argue the balk was anything more than good luck. Their runner certainly didn’t cause the pitcher to get nervous by standing like a statue at third base.

From a Northwestern fan’s perspective, DePaul’s winning margin in the teams’ 1983 NIT game came about as the basketball equivalent of an intentional walk balk. Of course, the perspective of DePaul’s fans is probably quite different. They likely attribute the win to great skill. There is one thing both sides can agree on, though, is the game’s finish was unique.

With about a second remaining and the game tied 63-63 overtime seemed certain. DePaul did have possession of the ball, but they were along way from the basket. Under such circumstances the odds against scoring are considerable. Unfortunately, at least from the Wildcats perspective, nobody told DePaul guard Kenny Patterson the odds. On the game’s final play, DePaul inbounded the ball to Patterson who caught it somewhere north of thirty feet from the hoop. Despite the considerable distance between him and his target, Patterson managed to put enough force behind his shot that the ball traveled all the way to the hoop and through the net. By the time the ball slide through the net’s nylon, the buzzer had sounded. The game was over. The final score: DePaul 65 Northwestern 63.

To this day, most DePaul supporters will argue Patterson’s ability to make his thirty-five foot miracle shot was not luck, but the result of his great shooting skills. They cite All-American honors Patterson received after the 1985 season and his well-known ability to hit long-range jump shots. Based purely on the facts it’s a strong argument, but that doesn’t mean Northwestern fans have to buy it. I wasn’t around then, but from the perspective of my father and the other NU fans in attendance that night, Patterson’s shot will forever remain nothing more than a lucky heave towards the hoop which ended another in a long line of games they walked out of muttering in frustrated disgust, “We should have won.”

Eleven years after Patterson’s long-range basket, the NIT selection committee provided the Wildcats with an opportunity for revenge and this time I was in attendance. DePaul’s Tom Kleinschmidt scored thirteen points in the first half to lead the Blue Demon attack. When the second half started, it was clear the Wildcats intended to shut him down. The ‘Cats defense was all over Kleinschmidt doing everything they could to prevent him from getting an open look. As is often the case in sports, that great defense provided the spark for improved offense. One of the keys to Wildcats improved offense was finding ways to get to the free throw line. As it turned out, this was where the ‘Cats would grab the lead, though, not in the traditional way. With just over four minutes left in the game, Kip Kirkpatrick rebounded a missed free throw and tipped the ball into the hoop to giving the ‘Cats the lead. It was lead they’d hang on to all the way to the buzzer. When DePaul’s last shot missed, I jumped up and pumped both fists into the air. To my left, the student section rushed the court.

A few days later the Wildcats hosted the Xavier Musketeers in the second round of the NIT and the matchup resulted in another classic. Unfortunately, the result of this one didn’t go the Wildcats way. When Kevin Rankin missed a three point jumper with less than ten seconds to go in overtime, the Musketeers grabbed the rebound and made two free throws to seal an 83-79 victory.

Normally the team playing on the road would have an advantage if the home team’s fans didn’t make much noise, but it seemed like the lack of atmosphere in NU’s 1999 NIT game at DePaul made the Wildcats lethargic. DePaul came out and put clamps on Northwestern’s All-America center Evan Eschmeyer holding him to only three shots in the first half. The only reason the Wildcats kept the game close early on was thanks to the dead-eye three point shooting of freshman forward Steve Lepore who nailed four three pointers in the first half. Unfortunately for Northwestern, in second half DePaul realized it was Lepore and not Eschmeyer that was hurting them and they started to swarm the Wildcat shooter whenever he touched the ball. With just over seven and half minutes to go, Blue Demons guard Willie Coleman buried a shot to put his team up twelve points. It looked like the ‘Cats were done.

One of the ways to distinguish a great player is to watch how they respond to adversity. Throughout that game, Evan Eschmeyer struggled to score. That was rare. During the 1998-99 Eschmeyer averaged more than nineteen points a game, but DePaul’s double and triple teams kept him away from the basket while they extended their lead. With his team down double digits late in the game, it would have been easy for Eschmeyer to pack it in and start looking forward to his NBA career. Instead, he railed the young Wildcats and ignited a 10-1 run by scoring three baskets to bring the Wildcats to within three points of the Demons with twenty-seven seconds left. After DePaul’s Lance Williams missed a free throw, the Wildcats got the ball to Eschmeyer with eleven seconds left. The senior star turned towards the hoop, shot, and missed. He didn’t give up though. Eschmeyer’s tenacity ignited a scramble for the ball which eventually ended up in the hands of Wildcat guard Sean Wink. Wink, who’d set the school record for three-pointers the year before, readied himself to shoot a three. He eyed the basket, took a dribble, and lost the ball off his foot out of bounds. A few seconds later, Willie Coleman calmly walked to the free throw line and knocked down two shots to seal the win for DePaul. Without a doubt, the loss was disappointing from Northwestern’s perspective, but the effort put forth by Eschmeyer and the ‘Cats to come back when it appeared DePaul was in total control made me proud to be a Wildcat fan. Also, we’ve got a much nicer arena.

Finally, last year the Wildcats played an NIT game at Tulsa. The script turned out similar to the game 10 years earlier at DePaul. Tulsa’s fans didn’t turn out in great numbers, but their team eventually built a solid lead. With just over seven minutes left, the score was 60-49 in favor of Tulsa. Like ten years before, though, a NU senior responded. Craig Moore hit two threes to help rally the Wildcats to within three points. However, just like Evan Eschmeyer, Moore’s last shot fell short and Tulsa hit free throws to ice an eventual 68-59 win.

Northwestern is in the NIT playing at Rhode Island

Game will be March 17th at 6:00PM CT on ESPNU. The Rams finished 23-9 on the year in the A-10. They lost to Richmond who runs an offense similar to NU 69-67 earlier this year.

At this Point, the Postseason is the Postseason (Unless, Science Fiction isn't Fiction)

A quick additional thought related to NU making a postseason tournament. Personally, I’m still pretty bummed out by NU’s loss yesterday. I refused to watch either Big Ten Tournament game today (I guess I missed a good game between OSU and Illinois, but I really can’t say I care). I suppose I’ll have to watch tomorrow’s game, but it’ll be really hard for me to get myself to a point where I can watch that game and not feel NU ought to be playing. Despite my disappointment, though, I am somewhat heartened by the idea Northwestern hasn’t played their last game. In a little over 24 hours we’ll know for sure, but I’d say it’s almost certain Northwestern will be playing a postseason game on Tuesday or Wednesday of this week.

Now, a number of people have expressed some disappointment with the idea that NU might not make the NIT. This makes sense as the NIT is obviously better than the CBI or the CIT. It’s on ESPN instead of HDNet or Fox College Sports which gives it more prestige and it is run by the NCAA and not a random organization trying to make money. Those points are all well and good and I’d like to see NU in the NIT, but I don’t understand people’s claim they won’t be excited if NU makes the CBI or CIT. They’re POSTSEASON tournaments.

Postseason play is something that as Northwestern fan I haven’t seen much of. In my lifetime Northwestern has won ONE (1) postseason game in men’s basketball and football combined. If they win number two this year, I’ll be as happy as I possibly imagine being. I’d have preferred that game be the Outback Bowl or an NCAA Tournament contest, but if it’s the NIT, CBI, CIT, or a 5th tournament that gets created in the next day, I really don’t care at this point. I’m going to enjoy it, especially if I can attend in person.

To be honest, unless you’re an NU fan who accidently stepped through a quantum mirror from a parallel reality where Rex Walters to didn’t transfer to Kansas, Geno Carlisle didn’t transfer to Cal, Nick Knapp’s heart never stopped beating and instant replay existed so Brian Musso didn’t fumble in the Rose Bowl, then I think you know the postseason (of any type) isn’t something to take lightly or complain about. Sure, I want to make the NCAA Tournament every year and win the Rose Bowl several times a decade, and I’ll do whatever small part I can to support NU Athletics in building to those goals, but in the meantime I’m going to enjoy the accomplishments along the way. That is, unless somebody has a spare quantum mirror sitting around in their basement, because I’d really have liked to see the results of Geno and Esch playing together.

Post BTT Thoughts on the Postseason

Bill Carmody said in his postgame that he expected Northwestern to make the NIT. That’s a nice thought, but I doubt Bill Carmody really spends much time analyzing the NIT selection process. Those that do, NITology and The Bracket Project both say NU isn’t likely to get an NIT bid. That’s disappointing, but it’s not unreasonable. In fact, unlike last season when I pretty much called the NIT selection committee a collection of fools for not making NU a top-4 seed, I wouldn’t be at all surprised or upset if they pass on NU this season. As of Friday, 7 conference champs from 1-bid leagues had lost in their conference tournaments. As a result, 7 of the 8 spots in the NIT for 7 or 8-seeds are essentially filled. Unless Northwestern truly passes the so called “eye-ball test” because they are a Big Ten team with 20 wins who beat Purdue and Illinois in January, I doubt the NIT is going to invite them and make them a 6-seed. Heck, even Illinois State who at 22-10 seemed a lock for at least a 6-seed in the NIT is now in danger of dropping to the CBI because of the influx of conference tourney losers.

To be totally honest, I bleed as much purple as anyone, and it’s painful to say, but I don’t think I’d vote for Northwestern were I in the committee room with C.M. Newton and NIT Selection Committee. What exactly is Northwestern’s case? Essentially it rests on 20 wins in 33 games and the fact they have wins over Purdue, Illinois, and Notre Dame. The problem as I see it is all those wins occurred at home or on a neutral court and the most recent was January 23rd. In fact, half of NU’s 20 wins occurred before the calendar even flipped to 2010. Allegedly, the selection committees have stopped worrying about a team’s record in their last 10 games, but I think that’ll still come into play as far as the human element. Committee members, just like any fan, know that Northwestern hasn’t exactly been trending upwards late in the year. That makes them potentially a very quick exit and not the competitive team a committee wants to see in the postseason. NU’s record on the road is also problematic. The selection committee has to consider wins away from home and while NU has a win at N.C. State (who will also be competing for an NIT berth) they really haven’t performed away from Welsh-Ryan Arena. They are 2-8 in true road games and 5-9 overall away from home. Even worse, NU’s RPI is at 113. That’s not impressive compared to a team like Texas Tech who with an RPI of 68 is projected into the same 5-seed NU received last year.

I guess the good news is that because of the NITs automatic bids the CBI and CIT will feature a number of “name” teams. The odds are that Alabama, Harvard, former NU opponents N.C. State and Iowa State, and perhaps even North Carolina will be shutout of the NIT. That could make for some very interesting matchups for either the CBI or CIT which will hopefully occur at Welsh-Ryan Arena.

Wildcats Lose Heads and Game in Second Half 69-61

Northwestern’s intelligent student athletes sure played stupid in the second half this evening. In a game which NU should have won easily, a technical foul on Luka Mirkovic, two dumb shots by Davide Curletti, a series of stupid fouls on virtually every player on the court which allowed Purdue 38 free throws, a dumb charge on Michael Thompson for his 5th personal, a boatload of turnovers, and the dumbest foul I have ever seen on a Chris Kramer layup after NU cut the lead to 1 point, combined to finish off the Wildcats effort at making history. This game is the reason those of us who follow this team year after year must be clinically insane. We inevitably get the same type of depressing results season after season. I tell myself suffering through all these depressing results will make NU’s eventual bid to the NCAA Tournament all the more meaningful for those of us who have been crushed by so many depressing losses. However, I have to admit that say that belief in some sort of theoretical future tournament bid doesn’t do a lot to ease our pain today. Northwestern should be playing tomorrow, but their defensive effort and lack of composure simply didn’t meet the magnitude of the game.

Some people will say Northwestern played well to stay close, but to be honest other than making 5-of-5 early threes, they really did not. If Northwestern had played well they would have had the game won at halftime. Yes, NU built an 11 point lead early, but if they hadn’t turned the ball over on six early possessions they might have realistically built a 20-point lead and finished off Purdue before the game even started.

Drew Crawford finally regained some of his Big Ten Freshman of the Year form as he scored 15 points and grabbed (by my unofficial count) 10 rebounds. However, he also committed a number of those early turnovers. Besides Crawford, the Wildcats also got good efforts from Michael Thompson and John Shurna. Thompson scored 12 points and Shurna scored 16 and got 6 rebounds. I have to say, though, I think both should have been more assertive on offense in the second half. No reason exists for Alex Marcotullio and Davide Curletti to force up threes. NU’s star players need to demand the ball in such clutch situations.

NU’s defense was fairly okay, which is good for Northwestern, but E’Twaun Moore did get 26 points. This is ridiculous. Without Robbie Hummel he is Purdue’s only shooting option. He also has regularly exploded on NU, including a career high 28 points, it is absolutely unacceptable for him to get the shots he got today. This is the type of game which proves my theory NU needs to learn to play man-to-man. The 1-3-1 got beat over the top and in the matchup NU often ended up with awful matchups thanks to their constant switching. I’d go into this more, but I’d just be repeating points from games earlier this season. I guess what has me really upset is that NU hasn’t been able to correct these problems, yet they’ve existed since early February. Just like NU’s players needed to be better and keep their composure under pressure, Bill Carmody and his coaches need to be better. They shouldn’t have allowed these same problems for some long. If Bill Carmody truly is a smart coach (and I do think he is), he’ll swallow his pride and issues with loyalty, in order to find an assistant coach somewhere who is familiar with how to teach defense. Next year would also be the year to do because Carmody will have enough veterans that the Princeton Offense should be pretty well mastered early on.

NU now heads back to Evanston at 20-13. They’ll likely get an NIT invite, though, I think it’s fair to debate if they deserve such an opportunity. After all, NU would likely be a 7 or 8-seed and therefore play on the road where they are 2-8. In terms of advancing, NU would be much better off in the CBI or CIT. The CIT claims to focus on mid-majors, but I think Northwestern fits their criteria well and would almost certainly play at home. Also, the CIT has started handing out bids and I wouldn't mind knowing NU's tournament future sooner than late Sunday evening. Some will say the NIT is more prestigious so even a bottom seed in it is better, but personally I enjoy winning and after the NCAA Tournament it doesn’t matter if you’re the 66th best team or the 81st best team or whatever. What matters is if you win and get more games. NU also would probably have a home game in the CBI which would increase their chance to advance. Bottom line, outside of the NCAA Tournament, the important thing is to play games, so I won’t feel too bad if NU is passed over by the NIT and ends up in one of the other tournaments. We will see exactly what happens on Sunday night if not before.

Juice and the Bench Lead Wildcats to 73-58 Victory over Indiana

Northwestern’s bench has basically been MIA since Alex Marcotullio scored 16 points against Michigan State on January 2nd, but Marcotullio and his friends Mike Capocci and Davide Curletti stepped up today in order to help Juice Thompson lead the ‘Cats past Indiana. Numbers wise Curletti led the three bench contributors with 12 points, but all three provided needed energy to a team which lacked any semblance of life in the first half.

NU only trailed 30-27 at half time, but the way they played that was pretty much due to luck and poor play by Indiana. In the first half Northwestern looked totally lost against Indiana’s 2-3 zone and let the Hoosier offense drill 4-of-8 threes, despite the fact that I’m sure Bill Carmody made it clear the defense wasn’t suppose to allow open looks. Really, the ‘Cats stayed in the game thanks to John Shurna making 5-of-5 inside shots while he and his teammates shot only 2-of-18 from three in the first half. To be honest, it wasn’t so much the 18 three point attempts that bothered me as much as the fact it looked like all NU could do against the IU zone was the pass the ball around the perimeter and then jack up a three.

In the second half, NU made 5-of-13 threes. That percentage isn’t great, but it’s certainly better. Even better than the numbers, though, is the fact those shots were mostly open and setup because NU wasn’t afraid to try and get in the lane. After he made two floaters in the lane, IU’s defenders backed off of Juice Thompson a bit and he then drilled three straight threes. Thompson finished the day 4-of-10 from three point range (6-of-15 overall) with 3 assists and 2 steals. Aggressively attacking the basket also resulted in some baskets and free throw opportunities for Jeremy Nash. Those were critical as Nash went 0-for-5 from three, yet he still scored 13 points thanks to make 4-of-5 twos and 5-of-6 free throws.

It wasn’t just Thompson and Nash who did good work in the second half, though. Davide Curletti had an all around good game, but he really stepped up at the 10:43 mark of the second half when Luka Mirkovic fouled out. Curletti played excellent defense, got a steal and a block, didn’t turn the ball over, and converted 6-of-6 free throws down the stretch. Joining Curletti as a late game reason for NU’s success was Mike Capocci. Drew Crawford really struggled and Alex Marcotullio played great, but needed a rest. As a result, Coach Bill Carmody turned to Capocci. Right off the bench, Capocci scored off an in-bounds play. He then proceeded to play some of the most aggressive defense NU has played all season helping the Wildcats to a 24-7-game deciding run. Numbers wise Capocci had 4 points, 2 steals, 2 rebounds, and a block, but he contributed to by simply playing more aggressively in the 1-3-1 in order to contest shots than Drew Crawford had been earlier in the game.

Before looking ahead to Purdue, I also want to praise Alex Marcotullio and NU’s commitment to the 1-3-1 in the second half with both Marcotullio and Nash at the top. Both players did a great job at the top of that defense causing turnovers and getting breakaways. Nash had a nice slam early and Marcotullio had a critical layup in NU’s big run. The 1-3-1 might not be the right defense for tomorrow, but it was the right defense today and I’m glad NU fully committed to using it in half number two. I also have to praise Marcotullio for not shying away from shooting even after missing early today. I ripped into him a bit for his play on Saturday, but I did so because I believe he’s a tough player who showed a lack of toughness when NU traveled to Bloomington. Today he demonstrated great toughness both mentally and physically. He finished with 8 points, 5 rebounds, and 0 turnovers. The bounce back performance from him and his teammates after a tough game should be commended.

Vs Purdue…So the Wildcats now take on Purdue. The game is tomorrow at 5:30 PM CT and will be telecast on the Big Ten Network. Obviously, the Purdue team NU will see tomorrow is not the team that Northwestern beat on January 16th. The good news for Northwestern fans is that doesn’t necessarily mean the team is better. Purdue is without All-Big Ten 1st teamer Robbie Hummel who posted 20 points against the Wildcats. Of course, Purdue still has guard E’Twaun Moore who has exploded on NU in the past as well as defensive pest Chris Kramer. What might work in NU’s favor, though, is that the 6-3 Kramer might have to guard John Shurna. To be honest, I don’t think Purdue has a better option for defense on the Wildcat forward. Shurna’s play today wasn’t his best as he struggled to 14 points on 5-of-13 shooting, but mostly he was missing threes. I don’t care how physical Kramer gets, the 6-8 Shurna needs to take the 6-3 Kramer inside. No way exists for Kramer to stop Shurna’s post moves without fouls. Shurna has proven he can score on smaller players nearly at will when all things are fair and equal. If the officials don’t call fouls, then Bill Carmody needs to get T-ed up early to ensure they do. Defensively, I’m not sure I want NU in the 1-3-1 versus Purdue, but their matchup has been so bad of late I’m worried about that as well. NU played the matchup well the first time these teams met, but Purdue now has point guard Lewis Jackson who will quickly drive to hoop if he finds Luka Mirkovic on him after a switch. NU might also be able to play 1-3-1 because without Hummel Purdue won’t shoot as well.

Wildcats, 73 Hoosiers, 58

A full recap will come later tonight after the Penn State vs Minnesota game, but thanks to Juice Thompson (16 points) finding his range in the second half and huge day from the bench trio of Alex Marcotullio (8 points), Mike Capocci (4 points), and Davide Curletti (12 points) Northwestern toughed out a victory over Indiana for their first Big Ten Tournament win since 2005.

Game 32: Indiana Hoosiers vs Northwestern Wildcats

The Matchup: Indiana (10-20) vs Northwestern (19-12)

Location: Conseco Fieldhouse (Indianaoplis, IN)

TV: ESPN2 (3:30 PM March 12th, 2010)
Radio: WGN AM 720

Fun Fact: Northwestern and Indiana have never met in the Big Ten Tournament.

About the Game
I’m not really sure I can offer any insight in this post that I didn’t provide in the pregame post for Saturday’s game or the postgame Saturday evening. I think we all understand that Indiana beat Northwestern on Saturday because the Wildcats played no defense, especially against IU guard Jordan Hulls, and because NU starting playing play ground basketball and chucked up 42 threes. I swear at times some of NU’s players seem like the guys you would dread having on a rec league team because all they want to do is shoot threes.

To be honest, though, as poor as NU’s offense was from a basketball fundamentals standpoint on Saturday, it was good enough to win. When a team scores 69 points in regulation, and 80 points overall, they should win a game. The problem is the Wildcats didn’t play defense. I’ve explained repeatedly my problem with the way NU plays their matchup zone or man-to-man. Basically, NU switches all the time and makes no effort to fight through screens. I think this leads to lazy play which is apparent when players drive the lane or make entry passes with no pressure. My gut tells me NU is better off playing 1-3-1 because that often at least starts to fire the team up. Jeremy Nash can be out front and start tipping passes and before you know it the Wildcats have caused a boatload of turnovers. Of course, if NU can’t convert on TOs, as they couldn’t Saturday, it doesn’t matter how many they cause. The other thing is that if NU does play 1-3-1, they MUST find Hulls. After what he did the other day, he’ll probably be so excited to see NU’s zone that he won’t be able to sleep on Wednesday night. I also wouldn’t forget about Devan Dumes and Derek Elston from deep if I was NU’s coaching staff, but Hulls did account for eight of IU’s ten made threes on Saturday.

Aside from playing defense for 40 minutes, NU needs to get a good inside effort on both ends of the floor if they are to win. Luka Mirkovic needs to score points, as he did when NU beat IU in Evanston, and he and his teammates must stop IU for crashing the offensive glass. Indiana is second in the Big Ten in offensive rebounding, so it isn’t a shock they managed to outrebound Northwestern, but that still doesn’t make it acceptable. NU has quality players inside with Mirkovic and Shurna. Also, Jeremy Nash and Drew Crawford can rebound as well. There is no reason other than effort for Indiana to totally dominate the glass.

On offense, I already said NU needs a good effort for Mikrovic. They also need a good effort from either Drew Crawford or Alex Marcotullio. Both freshmen have really struggled of late, but need to setup now. Crawford has been hurt, but Marcotullio is simply a headcase. He made shots against Chicago State when their wasn’t pressure, but he choked on two chances to give NU the win in the final minute Saturday. To be frank, I expected more from the guy who buried threes to seal wins against Notre Dame (when he was supposed to pass) and N.C. State (moments after he got T-ed up). If Marcotullio or Crawford “flushes” their troubles and plays to their ability NU will win.

Prediction:
This game will be a test of mental toughness more than physical toughness for Northwestern. The Wildcats are the better team and if they can focus on just playing basketball they will win. However, to this point NU hasn’t impressed me as a mentally tough team, especially away from home. They certainly don’t follow the mantras of NU football coach Pat Fitzgerald and “flush” mistakes and concentrate on W.I.N or What’s Important Now. Instead, they seem to let every little mistake fester into disaster. Sometimes they get things together after trouble, but often times it is too late. That was the case in losses at Minnesota and Wisconsin. Will Thursday afternoon be different? I actually think it will be. NU might see a lot of red in Conseco, but it isn’t a true road game. It’s a neutral site game played at an odd time. Hopefully as a result NU’s attitude will be similar to the way they played in the Chicago Invitational Challenge when they left the friendly confines of Welsh-Ryan Arena and won two big games. Northwestern, 66 Indiana, 60

Wildcat Flashback: NU's Best Big Ten Tournament Game

Lake the Posts recently did a post on Northwestern rather embarrassing Big Ten Tournament history. Going into Thursday’s game, NU stands at 4-12 in the Big Ten Tournament. This is by far the worst mark of any school. Those four wins were all first round games as NU has never advanced to Saturday in the tournament. Looking back over the years of the Big Ten Tournament, which started in 1998, the Wildcats best run undoubtedly occurred in 1999. Although the ‘Cats only won one game (54-44 in Round 1 over Penn State) they nearly knocked off the nation’s #2 team, Michigan State, in the quarterfinals. I would go so far as to say that the ‘Cats loss on March 5, 1999 to Michigan State was in fact their best performance in the Big Ten Tournament. What you see below is my personal story of that day. I've shared some of these thoughts in the past, but this post has some extra story. Plus, the game itself, despite being a loss, is worth remembering.

I know the obvious joke here is that Northwestern basketball has suffered so many losses that I’ve been forced to dip into that long list of defeats to find NU’s best Big Ten Tournament game, but the truth is any basketball fan that saw the Wildcats and the Spartans play that day would be hard pressed not to list NU’s performance among the most impressive they have seen.

The game was played in front of near sellout crowd at the United Center in Chicago. Sadly, despite the fact Northwestern’s campus is probably less than 10 miles from the UC very few Wildcat fans were in attendance. Perhaps the reason was because it seemed impossible for the Wildcats to pull off the upset of the 26-4 and #2-ranked Spartans. Thanks to the fact not many ‘Cats fans were present, and many Michigan State fans had apparently assumed their game against NU would such a runaway it wasn’t worth attending, the majority of the crowd at the United Center happened to be red clad Wisconsin Badger fans who had shown up early for the day’s second game.

I have to admit that I wasn’t at the game either. As a high school student at the time (and one who wanted to go to NU) I couldn’t very well walk out of school or hang out in the cafeteria missing class, plus I had baseball practice after school. Given this unfortunate, I set my VCR (it was the 20th century) and hoped nobody would tell me what happened before I got home from school and baseball practice. I wasn’t that worried. It wasn’t as if many of my friends followed the Wildcats closely. Most of the guys I was at practice with that day wouldn’t know Evan Eschmeyer from his brother Jeff even though Evan was about ten inches taller.

Given my confidence I wouldn’t find out anything until I got home and watched my tape, I was surprised when waiting for my ride home to overhear Northwestern mentioned in a conversation between my teammate, Mike Cook, and another kid waiting for a ride home.

I remember the moment clearly. I was sitting on the gym stairs looking out the double doors through a light rain waiting for my mom’s car. When I heard NU mentioned I was conflicted. I didn’t really want to know what happened, but I figured if NU was being discussed at all it meant a possible upset. After all, the only time NU gains the attention of Joe-fan is why they doing something remarkable.


As I walked over Mike pointed at me and said, “Tell him, his family has season-tickets at Northwestern.”

“It’s no big deal,” the kid said. “Northwestern played Michigan State today.”

“I know that,” I said exasperated. Who the hell did this guy think was talking to?

“Well,” he said with what I thought was an unnecessarily long pause. “The game was really awesome.”

Having never met the kid before, I assumed he wasn’t trying to drive me crazy, but he was doing a hell of a good job anyway.

“What happened?” I asked a louder than necessary.

I held my breath. Would I have reason to celebrate or reason to despair?

Finally I got my answer, “Northwestern missed a shot at buzzer that would have won the game. Michigan State won by two.”

It would be over dramatic to say I collapsed to the floor, but I do recall stumbling a little. I wasn’t sure what to feel. I was disappointed, but for NU to have some close to the upset was great achievement. I felt pride in the Wildcats effort.

“I guess it was a good game,” I said.

“It sure was,” my informant answered.

With that ringing endorsement I decided despite knowing the unfortunate result of the game I’d still watch my recording of the game. I’m glad I did. In all my years watching sports I may have never seen a better effort from an underdog than what the ‘Cats gave that day. I remember the camera fixing on the Wisconsin fans as they rose to their feet to cheer Evan Eschmeyer as he gave the Wildcats what would be their final lead of the day with about three minutes left in the game.

In the final three minutes, Michigan State managed to scrape together five points. That was enough to secure the victory, but NU didn’t go down easy. Down two with the clocking winding towards zero, David Newman got the ball after an MSU basket and rushed it towards the hoop. Once in the lane, Newman lofted a soft floater which looked on target until Michigan State’s Antonio Smith batted it away. Michigan State’s fans breathed a sigh of relief until they saw the batted ball roll into the hands of Steve Lepore. After one quick dribble, Lepore leaned in over a defender and fired an off balance three point shot. To this day, I believe he came inches from changing Northwestern basketball forever.

When you’re trying to build a program goal number one is a signature win. It’s the win which announces a team’s presence to the nation. It informs all their upcoming opponents that they better be ready to play or they’ll be adding a number on the right column of their record. It’s Northwestern’s 1995 football team beating Michigan or Davidson topping Georgetown in the NCAA Tournament. It might even be Northwestern basketball beating Michigan State last year in East Lansing (you could certainly argue that was a signature win), but without a doubt the loss to Michigan State on March 5, 1999 was the closest Northwestern came to signature win before last January. I’d argue it would have been far more significant that last year’s victory given the stage on which it would have occurred and what it might have setup.

If the Wildcats had beaten the Spartans they would have advanced to play Wisconsin in the semi-finals of the Big Ten Tournament. Had they beat the Badgers, which they certainly could have, they would have played the last place Illinois Fighting Illini who had made remarkable run to the final in the conference title game. It would have been almost a perfect confluence of events for the ‘Cats to make their first NCAA tournament. Not only would the road there have been relatively easy, but the team would have been playing with a ton of extra confidence after knocking off the number two team in the nation live on ESPN. Beating Michigan State in full view of a national TV audience could have totally changed the national perception of Northwestern basketball. Not only might the ‘Cats future opponents in the Big Ten Tournament have found themselves very worried about NU’s unstoppable momentum, but the national press which such an upset would have generated might have changed how the average college basketball fan and potential recruits viewed Northwestern basketball. Unfortunately, thanks to the United Center rims, NU’s dream of a signature win remained unrealized.

When the ball left his hand, Steve Lepore’s shot for the win looked as if it was right on, but it ended up slightly short and hit the front edge. When the ball hit the rim, it bounced high into to the air and it looked for a moment as if the ball might still manage to fall into the basket. Unfortunately, on the way down the ball stuck the rim a second time before falling to the hardwood floor.

Although it was sad to watch the ‘Cats play so well and come up short, I think my pain was eased somewhat by knowing that despite failing to achieve their signature win, NU earned the respect of the college basketball world. The broadcasters on ESPN effusively praised Eschmeyer’s fantastic play. In his postgame press conference, Michigan State Head Coach Tom Izzo said NU deserved to win and admitted the Wildcats outplayed and outhustled his mighty Spartans. The most memorable praise for the ‘Cats, though, came from the crowd of Wisconsin fans who rose to their feet and saluted the ‘Cats effort with a standing ovation after the final buzzer sounded. It was a fantastic moment.

Forecasting the Big Ten Tournament

The matchups for the 2010 Big Ten Tournament are now set thanks to wins today by Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Minnesota. Northwestern is the 7-seed and, as expected, will rematch with 10-seed Indiana who just beat the Wildcats in the regular season finale. Another interesting rematch exists in the 4 vs 5 game where 4-seed Wisconsin and 5-seed Illinois will meet to decide their season series. Below are my thoughts on all 10 games in the Big Ten Tournament as I predict who will come out victorious and take home the Big Ten’s automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament.

Round 1

Game 1
#8 Michigan vs #9 Iowa
WRR Pick: Michigan
I’m picking Michigan in part because Manny Harris is the type of player who can carry a team in the postseason, but he’s Mr. Inconsistent, so really I’m picking the Wolverines because I don’t think Iowa’s young team is ready or talented enough to compete in the postseason.

Game 2
#7 Northwestern vs #10 Indiana
WRR: Northwestern
I like the Wildcats to win the season series over the Hoosiers. Yes, it might be a pro-IU crowd, but it isn’t IU’s building as it was on Saturday when it took overtime for the Hoosiers to win. I think NU will learn from Saturday’s mistakes and get by the Hoosiers in Round 1.

Game 3
#6 Minnesota vs #11 Penn State
WRR Pick: Penn State
I don’t think anybody envies Minnesota’s 6-seed. Penn State has become a very good team in the last month and Minnesota will find out just how good when the Nittany Lions beat them.

Quarterfinal Round

Game 4
#1 Ohio State vs #8 Michigan
WRR Pick: Ohio State
This might be the Big Ten’s most hotly contested rivalry, but I don’t expect much of a contest here. I think the Buckeyes roll to the semi-final behind Big Ten Player of the Year Evan Turner.

Game 5
#4 Wisconsin vs #5 Illinois
WRR Pick: Illinois
I think Illinois is going to be a team on a mission after Sunday’s loss. They need to win to even get sniffed by the NCAA Selection Committee. Also, Demetri McCamey needs to show he isn’t the player who nearly got into a fight with his coach on the bench, but is in fact the guy who nearly set a single season record for assists after an early season benching.

Game 6
#2 Purdue vs #7 Northwestern
WRR Pick: Purdue
I think this is where NU’s road problems really show up. Yes, Indy is closer to the IU campus, but Purdue has a lot more to play for and their fans will know that and descend on Conseco Fieldhouse. I think those fans help push a Boilermaker team that is adjusting to the loss of Robbie Hummel to victory. On the positive side, I think the win over Indiana clinches NU’s NIT bid.

Game 7
#3 Michigan State vs #11 Penn State
WRR Pick: Michigan State
Penn State will make Michigan State work for this victory just as they did twice this year. When it is all said and done, though, I think Tom Izzo will be able to orchestrate a narrow win for MSU.

Semifinal Round

Game 8
#1 Ohio State vs #5 Illinois
WRR Pick: Ohio State
This game will be much closer than either of the two meetings these teams had during the regular season. However, Evan Turner, William Buford, and David Lighty are simply that much better than Illinois’s backcourt of McCamey, DJ Richardson, and Brandon Paul. I also think Dallas Lauderdale can push around Mike Tisdale.

Game 9
#2 Purdue vs #3 Michigan State
WRR: Michigan State
When these teams met the first time MSU star Kalin Lucas played on an injured ankle and Purdue beat his Spartans. The second time, Purdue played without Robbie Hummel and MSU won. With Hummel still out, Lucas and the Spartans will win.

Big Ten Tournament Championship Game

#1 Ohio State vs #3 Michigan State
WRR Pick: Michigan State
No disrespect to Purdue, but considering they don’t have Hummel, I think this final pits the Big Ten’s two top teams right now. Ohio State probably has more talent, but I think after having lost to the Buckeyes earlier in the year, Tom Izzo will have a better idea of how to exploit OSU’s lack of depth. I expect the Spartans to rotate their athletic bigs against Lauderdale, pressure the Buckeye guards to cause turnovers, and get away with a close victory and the Big Ten Tournament Title.

What does everybody else think? Share your predictions for NU’s run and the tourney’s champ below.

Road Woes NU’s Biggest Problem

People will have a lot of theories regarding what sent a promising Northwestern team from a possible NCAA Tournament berth to a lower seed in the NIT. They’ll talk about Drew Crawford’s injury, Luka Mirkovic’s inconsistency, and Bill Carmody’s personnel use, but I don’t actually think any of those was the real problem. The real problem is much simpler—Northwestern can’t win on the road.

NU’s only true road wins are over an N.C. State team that is tied for last in the ACC and a Michigan team that should have beat NU handily, but blew a 17 point lead. Northwestern is 1-7 on the road in Big Ten play and 2-7 overall. The Wildcats are 2-0 on a neutral court, but that neutral court was only about 9 miles from Welsh-Ryan Arena.

What Northwestern’s problem is on the road is a matter of speculation. However, in most of the road contests NU has fallen into a large hole at some point and it’s tough to come back from double digits away from home. In many of those cases, NU has cut into that double digit hole and final score has been close, but only once, the aforementioned Michigan game, has NU actually fully overcome their hole. In other contests, such as Sunday at Penn State and at Iowa, NU has never been in the game. The only road contests where NU hasn’t gotten in a huge first half hole are N.C. State (a win), Illinois (which NU lost in overtime), and Michigan State (which NU got into a big hole in the early 2nd half). I strongly believe why NU beat N.C. State and took overtime to lose to Illinois is the fact the Wildcats weren’t chasing double digits early. When a team gets down 10+ points early in a hostile environment, it’s tough to come back. You either pack it in and seal your fate (NU on Sunday) or you make an huge effort to come back, but probably exhaust too much energy to have a shot in the stretch (see NU at Minnesota). This is especially true of teams like Northwestern who don’t get a lot from their bench.

Why does Northwestern often fall into a hole early? I wish I knew. For whatever reason, this team doesn’t seem to play with the constant urgency necessary to play defense in the Big Ten. It isn’t Northwestern’s offense. In blowout first halves against Wisconsin and Penn State, NU still played well on offense. It was the fact that both times the opposition scored more than 40 points which put NU into a bad situation. What’s frustrating is that Northwestern has shown they can play defense. Sometimes even in a contest they get blown out in the first half, they’ll comeback and play good defense in the second. That makes no sense what so ever. If you can do it in the second half, you can do it in the first half. Why NU can’t come out of the tunnel and play hard is a mystery, but they haven’t done so in 6 of the 8 Big Ten road games they’ve played this year. That’s bad. Maybe Bill Carmody needs to be more aggressive in his pregame speeches, maybe the team’s senior leaders need to get on the freshman more. Who knows? But Northwestern has one Big Ten road left. They play at Indiana on Saturday. The Wildcats are much better than the Hoosiers, but Indiana has a reputation for playing hard at home. If Northwestern doesn’t come out with intensity, it won’t matter that Indiana is resting near the bottom of the Big Ten. They too will find a way to continue Northwestern’s road woes.

Northwestern Wildcats: Postseason Thoughts

As the Wildcats travel to Wisconsin this weekend they might not be in the NCAA Tournament hunt, but they are in the postseason hunt. Others might disagree, but at this point I think Northwestern could fall anywhere from a top seed in the NIT to out of that tournament all together. It really depends on what happens here on out. NU’s last chance (other than the Big Ten Tournament) at getting another quality win on their resume is this weekend. They Wildcats other contests (Iowa, at Penn State, Chicago State, and at Indiana) are all games which NU is expected to win. In fact, a loss in one of those contests is probably on par with the losses NU has the last two weeks at Iowa and home against Penn State. NU will likely make the NIT as long as they do better than 1-4 in their last four games. However, right now the bracket project and NIT-ology the two most respected (and about the only two) NIT-projection websites have NU as a #7 and #8-seed respectively. That means according to those who study the NIT closely, NU would be on the road facing a #1 (Cincinnati) or #2-seed (Washington) if the NIT started today. To some NU fans this might seem unreasonable, but the truth is this is about right. Yes, last year NU did get a #5-seed with a 17-13 record, however, NU won at #7 Michigan State and at #19 Purdue. They also beat a top-20 Minnesota team in Welsh-Ryan and while the team suffered some crushing losses in which they blew large leads, their only “bad” loss was at Iowa. That was an Iowa team which pushed the .500-mark and almost made it to the postseason themselves.

As much as I hate to say it, those sites are currently on the money. I trashed the NIT-selection committee last year, but things are a little different this season. It’s not NU’s fault that many Big Ten teams, such as Michigan and Minnesota, have underachieved. Or that several “good” non-conference opponents haven’t actually been that good. Bottom line, though, Northwestern’s resume isn’t as impressive this year. If the Wildcats don’t pull off the win at Wisconsin or rock the Big Ten Tourney, I’ll lay off the NIT-selection committee this year. Why? Aside from the two bad losses these past couple weeks which came at a time (last 10 games) when committees are watching, right now NU’s only win that is nearly as impressive as the triad of victories they pulled off last year is beating #6 Purdue at Welsh-Ryan. NU’s next best win is probably beating Illinois in Welsh-Ryan. Illinois is the mythical #29 spot in this week’s AP Poll. NU’s best road win is at Michigan, and that should help in Big Ten Tournament seeding, but that’s not like beating a top-10 that eventually played for the National Title. That’s why Sunday’s game at #14 Wisconsin is so important. If Northwestern pulls the upset that win is at least on par with the Purdue win last year and maybe even the MSU win given how tough Wisconsin is at home. It’ll also move NU up in the conference standing and potentially allow the ‘Cats to get a rematch will an Illinois team they can beat in the Big Ten Tournament. What also might help NU is that by then the Illini might be ranked.

Hopefully, that’ll be the case and the Wildcats will be able to beat not only the Illini, but all their Big Ten Tournament opponents, or at least they’ll win enough to bring postseason basketball back to Welsh-Ryan for the first time since 1994.

‘Cats NCAA Dreams Very Likely Dead Thanks to Humiliating 78-65 Loss in Iowa City

This may seem like revisionist history, but I was tempted to predict an Iowa win in this contest. But instead of doing so, I told myself, “No, this Northwestern team is different than the teams of the past. They won’t let down, they won’t fail in the big game, they won’t be the group saying, ‘if only this or that had gone the other way’ at the end of the year.” Well, I was wrong. This was the same exact game NU fans have see hundreds of times when they start to have expectations. It was virtually every game of consequence from the 2003-04 season to the 2005-06 season. I could probably spare you all a post and just have you think back to those times, but I've got stuff to say, so I'll post my thoughts.

This was also the type of uninspired effort which NU showed in virtually every game two years ago, when they went 1-17 in the Big Ten. Like that year, tonight Northwestern was pathetic in every area from offense, to defense, to coaching, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the postgame meal is stale.

NU looked totally lost to start the game. They didn’t seem to have a clue as to what offensive set to run, they struggled to get any sort of an open look, and multiple times settled for Jeremy Nash threes. Nash’s offense has obviously improved, but no way was the game plan to have him be the primary offensive weapon to start the game. As bad as that was, though, NU’s defense was even worse. They let Iowa get inside early in the game and therefore decided they need to switch to the 1-3-1. Unfortunately, in the 1-3-1, NU didn’t guard Devan Bawinkle from behind the arc despite the fact Bawinkle has never attempted a two in his career.

NU also didn’t seem able to get a team on the court who could play together without turnovers and forced threes. When NU got down they stopped running offense and started shooting threes like they hoped that if they hit a shot from deep enough it would be a like a “hot spot” in the old NBA Jam video game where you could get 7 or 8 points back with one bomb.

Luka Mirkovic struggled and was pulled. Kyle Rowley struggled and was pulled. Mirkovic came back, but was playing the worst game of his career, so Davide Curletti and Ivan Peljusic played for the first time in eons. Alex Marcotullio saw more time as did Mike Capocci, yet none of them seemed able to play defense or make shots. I don’t mean to pick on those guys. No Wildcat played well. They looked lazy. Almost as if they were either full of themselves because they won two games or looking ahead to Minnesota.

I can’t really quantify just how bad NU played. You can look at the stats and say things like, “NU made only 8-of-26 threes, while Iowa made 12-of-24 or Iowa got 36 rebounds while NU got only 28.” The thing is those stats aren’t enough to explain this game. The best I can do is say if you saw NU’s teams in 95-96, 99-00, or 07-08, that was what this game looked like. NU looked like a team that wasn’t athletic enough or skilled enough to play defense, grab a rebound, or make a shot. The problem is that this isn’t a team that is undermanned like those squads. This is probably Northwestern’s most balanced team ever.

Perhaps the best summary of this game might be to look to a quote from the character of lawyer Jackie Chiles played by actor Phil Morris on the television show Seinfeld. When faced with one of the many times Cosmo Kramer has ruined Jackie’s shot at a huge payday, the frustrated attorney declares, “this is the most public yet of my many humiliations." Northwestern basketball hasn’t exactly impressed in its history. Humiliating losses were the norm at times in the past, but with the nation watching closely, and in many cases rooting, for NU to make the Big Dance, this game is indeed the most public of NU’s many humiliating losses.

Iowa’s Loss to Illinois No Help to NU: Avoiding Bad Losses Could be Key in Battle for Big Ten’s Last Tourney Spot

Iowa hosts NU next week. They just missed helping NU when they lost a close battle to Illinois.

Right now there are four teams in the Big Ten that are sure bets to make the NCAA Tournament: Michigan State, Purdue, Wisconsin, and Ohio State. There are also four teams that are surely out of the NCAA Tournament: Iowa, Indiana, Penn State, and Michigan. In between stand Northwestern, Illinois, and Minnesota. Right now none of those three teams are clearly better than the other. In fact, the teams are really very evenly matched. NU split its two meeting with Illinois and has a very good chance to split with Minnesota as well. As a result, what might be most critical to these teams in distinguishing themselves from each other will be avoiding bad losses, say losses to teams with sub-100 RPIs. NU hasn’t done this yet. Iowa almost handed Illinois their 3rd such loss, but the Fighting Illini escaped. If NU can continue to be immune to bad losses they might get picked ahead of Illinois and Minnesota even if the Illini and Gophers don’t pick up any more bad losses, but it’ll be a tough task for NU when they face Indiana and Iowa this week. Iowa didn’t beat Illinois, but came very close. Indiana didn’t beat Purdue, but looked for a long time like they would. No game in the Big Ten is easy.

On a related note, recaps and breakdowns of the Illinois-Iowa game are on various websites devoted to those teams, so I won’t break it down in detail. I do want to make a few observations. First off, I wonder if Iowa regrets running Steve Alford out of town. He certainly had his problems, but despite having fans dissatisfied, he did make regular runs in the Big Ten Tournament which lead to NCAA appearances. Todd Lickliter looks like he’ll still be looking for his first NCAA-bid in Iowa City after this year. Not that you can totally blame Lickliter (though I’m sure most Iowa fans do). He’s been somewhat snake bitten due to transfers and suspensions. Losing Jake Kelley to transfer hurt Iowa’s offense and then losing Anthony Tucker (who could have stepped in for Kelley) to a suspension hurt even more. Now, Iowa is a team with virtually no inside game and only Cully Payne and Matt Gatens can do much with creating their own shot.

Iowa also looks like they have issues with visiting fans just like Northwestern. It might not be to NU’s level in terms of numbers, but yesterday a group of Illinois students were seated right behind the basket. Without a doubt, I would have considered those prime seats, but nobody in black and gold must have wanted them. Even more amazing, the basket they were behind was the goal Iowa was shooting at in the second half. In other words, every time a Hawkeye player went to the line late to try a free throw, he saw a horde of orange-clad visitors staring him in the face. Even when NU was beating the Alford teams regularly, they still struggled in Iowa City. Part of the reason is was the Hawkeye fans made wining in Carver-Hawkeye Arena really tough. Now, I’m not guaranteeing a win in Iowa City (and NU’s team should just focus on Indiana), but it does seem Carver-Hawkeye will be significantly less intimidating this season. Hopefully, that’ll make it easier for NU to win in a place they’ve struggled and avoid their first bad loss.

An Expert’s Analysis of NU’s Tournament Chances

Last year when I was breaking down Northwestern’s chances to make the NCAA Tournament I got most of my stats from http://www.baselinestats.com/. The site has a wealth of knowledge and it is very easy to navigate between the excellent analysis and the detailed statistics. One of the site’s writers and founders is 2004 Northwestern graduate Brendon Desrochers. Brendon graciously agreed to answer a few questions and share his statistical breakdown of NU’s tournament chances with us today. He also took the time to share some fun memories of his time watching hoops as an NU student. Here’s what he had to say…

WRR: Obviously the loss to Minnesota hurt Northwestern’s NCAA Tournament chances, but just how badly did it hurt?

BD: Unscientifically, I put Northwestern's chances to make the NCAA Tournament at about 40 percent entering the Minnesota game, and I've dropped that to 35 percent although that might be a bit generous. I don't think this one loss was particularly damaging -- perhaps less damaging than the Wisconsin loss was -- but it just leaves little margin for error. Barring an unlikely win at Wisconsin or Michigan State, Northwestern will have to win seven of the nine other games (plus Chicago State) merely to stay in the mix.

Since I started looking at Northwestern closely, I've said that the magic number was 24. Twenty-four wins will get Northwestern in, and 23 will put the Cats at just about even money, maybe 40/60 to go. It sounds like a lot of wins out of a Big Ten team just to get in, but with eight conference games this season against teams unlikely to finish in the top 100 of the RPI, NU has little margin for error.

In terms of my model -- I call it the BTI (Baseline Tournament Index) -- there are still about a dozen teams between Northwestern and the at-large cutline. That's a lot of teams, and the only way to pass those teams -- especially with scarce opportunities at eye-popping wins -- is by winning a lot of games.

If you extrapolate the projections for this site(http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Northwestern.html), you get about a 20 percent chance of Northwestern reaching the threshold it would need to get in. I do think the Sagarin ratings he's using to do his projections sells Northwestern a smidge short, though.

WRR: Is there a magic number of wins which will put Northwestern into the Big Dance? I know in the past people talked about 20 wins, but that was back when the NCAA only allowed teams to play 27 regular season games. Now teams play 31 games plus a conference tournament, so I assume the number has changed.

BD: I realize that I probably answered this question above. To be clear, a 10-8 conference record plus a win over Chicago State and a win in Northwestern's first Big Ten Tournament game will put NU right at the bubble heading into Selection Sunday. Whether the Cats are in or out at that point will depend on how things break in conference tournaments and with other bubble teams. A 24th win would be a clincher, but that means no slip-ups in the games against Penn State, Indiana and Iowa, plus the home games against Minnesota and Michigan. Win those eight to finish 11-7 and win another in the Big Ten Tournament, and it's hard to imagine Northwestern being left out.

WRR: What games on the remaining schedule would you consider “must-win” games for Northwestern?

BD: This is tricky, because any loss to the bad teams in the conference will kill the RPI, but any home loss will also really damage the RPI, and a loss to Minnesota would mean a sweep and make it hard for NU to get in ahead of the Gophers. And then, of course, there is Chicago State. That makes nine must wins -- I'd say Northwestern will need to go 8-1 against those teams or take one of the two tough roadies as a replacement for an extra loss. A slip-up at Iowa, Penn State or (especially) Indiana is my biggest fear as a Wildcats fan. (Editor’s note: Penn State really scares me. They might be the best 0-8 team in Big Ten history)

WRR: Are there any teams Northwestern fans should actively be rooting against because they’ll be teams Northwestern ends up competing with for a bid?

BD: I would root against Illinois. Five bids seem the most likely figure for the Big Ten, and so finishing ahead of Illinois in conference should give Northwestern an edge. And, considering the non-conference play of the Illini, just finishing tied with Illinois in conference should give NU the edge.

In other conferences, it's always hard to say which teams will be at the cutline in March, but some that come to mind are Florida, Dayton, Seton Hall and Cincinnati. Basically, root for the chalk and dreck in the major leagues at the expense of the middle teams.

WRR: Bottom line, what do you see as the end result of this season for NU. NIT? NCAA? CBI?

BD: To not get invited to the NIT at this point would require a near disaster, and in the NIT is where I'd expect the Cats to end up. I think there will be a slip-up against one of the bottom teams on the road -- the two consecutive weekend trips to State College and Bloomington make me cringe -- and that will be enough to derail the dream, barring a deep Big Ten Tourney run.

It's a real shame, because Northwestern really hasn't done anything wrong this season. It's the other Big Ten teams, especially the bottom three plus Illinois, Michigan and, yes, even Michigan State, whose non-conference play has set the bar so high for the Cats.

I do already have plans to attend should Northwestern make it. I'm hoping that, if the Cats do, they'll go to Providence, where I have family, and not to the very-hard-to-get-to Spokane. Either way, I won't complain.

WRR: As an NU graduate, what do think about the current state of the NU hoops compared to your time on campus?

BD: Well, I'll be honest -- I've never much liked watching the Princeton offense, although I did think that Coach Carmody was a good hire because of the institutional fit and the slow pace that should help a perpetual underdog. He started at Northwestern the same year I did, and I think he's an awesome guy. There were times, though -- as recently as before last Big Ten season started -- when I thought there was little hope in Evanston.

When I was at school, Northwestern had three pretty decent years but never really sniffed the NCAAs, and even fell tantalizingly short of the NIT twice, because of poor starts out of conference. Jitim Young and Tavares Hardy brought some big wins to NU, and they were part of not-terrible teams (which is pretty good at Northwestern). I was ushering at Welsh-Ryan the last time Northwestern beat Illinois (prior to Saturday). My spot was right at the corner of the court, across the way from the Northwestern bench, and watching the crowd storm the court was one of my favorite moments at Northwestern. I remember that the Daily Northwestern had this great shot with fans rushing everywhere and Carmody's head popping out of the crowd and looking directly at the camera, despite there being no way he could have seen it.

So, there were moments, but just too far and few, and every Big Ten win felt like an upset (except for the ones against Purdue) -- and it seemed we were gimmicking our way to those upsets. Northwestern's performance last year, and even without Kevin Coble this year, has changed the feel around the program. Suddenly, Northwestern is expected to beat teams like Indiana, Penn State, Iowa. So, however, Northwestern handle's the pressure that comes with that change is less important than that the change has occurred. And that change came with better players. Craig Moore, Coble and Juice meant business as usual for Carmody and recruiting -- one good player per year, but things began to change with Hardy's arrival on the staff and the Shurna/Mirkovic class followed by this year's Crawford/Marcotullio class.

As good a coach as Carmody is, he needs players, and he simply hasn't had them until now. What Carmody can do with players who fit his system -- and even some like Crawford who can flourish when it breaks down -- is hopeful. There was no way an earlier Carmody team could have lost a player as critical as Coble and finished anywhere near .500 in conference. For instance, there was a lot of optimism entering what was to be the senior seasons of Hachad/Vukusic/Parker (2005-06), and then Parker left for Europe, and Northwestern struggled to 6-10. The fact that that hasn't happened this season is probably the biggest transformation since when I went to school.

The question is whether this class of juniors -- Thompson and now Coble -- can close the deal and reach the Big Dance, or whether it will fall on the underclassmen to bring it home. They'll become legends if they do, and there's reason to believe that it will happen by March 2011 with a few good bounces.

WRR: Thanks, Brendon. We’ll have to bring you back for another breakdown of NU’s chances closer to Selection Sunday if the ‘Cats close in on those 23 wins.

Let’s Talk Tournament...

I’ve tried to stay away from this talk somewhat since it is still January, but after last night’s supposed NCAA Tournament elimination game I think it’s time to talk NCAAs. Especially since the ‘Cats weren’t the team eliminated. Most people are still skeptical of Northwestern’s NCAA Tournament chances. That’s in part because NU only has one big win (vs Purdue) and Northwestern has only two true road wins (vs Michigan and vs N.C. State). But NU will get multiple chances to prove themselves dance worthy in the next few weeks.

Perhaps the best way to study NU’s current NCAA chances is to look at a team who many experts say will be among the last four in or out and compare them with Northwestern. Right now, Joe Lunardi has Cal as one of his last four teams in the tournament. This comparison is also somewhat more relevant because the teams do have some common opponents in Iowa State, Ohio State, and Stanford.

Looking at RPI, Cal has something of an advantage. The Golden Bears current RPI is #25. Northwestern’s is #53. However, the Wildcats do have the advantage both in number of wins and with fewer losses. Northwestern is sitting at 14-5 against Division 1 teams while Cal is 13-6. The Wildcats also have the best win of the two teams with their victory over Purdue. Cal is actually 0-4 versus RPI top-50 teams. Against RPI top-100 teams Northwestern is 4-5. Cal is 3-5. Based on those numbers Cal is probably slightly better, but for them to be one of the last four in and Northwestern not even to be in the last eight out doesn’t seem entirely logical.

What Lunardi is likely looking at is the team’s strength of schedule. Right now Cal’s SOS is 3rd in the nation. NU’s is 69th. However, the best team Cal has left on their schedule is RPI ranked #60 USC. Northwestern still gets RPI #10 Wisconsin and PRI #16 Michigan State on the road. Besides that, the Wildcats have #64 Minnesota twice. Those games are huge as Minnesota might have replaced Illinois as in-conference competition for an NCAA bid. If Northwestern can get wins over those teams their case will be greatly improved. Playing tough competition is great, but you have to beat those teams. Personally, I think team’s records against the top-50 and on the road should mean more than SOS. Sure, you might play a bunch of good teams, but who cares if you can’t beat them. If you play some good teams and some bad teams, beat all the bad teams and a fair number of the good teams, and win regularly away from home—that’s a impressive resume. An NCAA-worthy resume.

A good example of this is UNLV. The Runnin’ Rebels have an SOS similar to NU (#67), but are projected into the tournament by virtually every analyst as somewhere between a 7 and 10-seed. Lunardi has them as a 9-seed. Part of the reason for this has to be the fact UNLV is 3-2 vs RPI top-100 teams and 7-1 on the road. Northwestern is 2-2 on the road and Cal is 2-3. NU does have an advantage with a 2-0 record on neutral courts while Cal is 0-2.

Bottom line, Northwestern’s resume should be considered competitive for a tournament bid right now. NU’s most important games, though, haven’t yet happened. The Wildcat resume would greatly improve with wins over Minnesota (one of the first four out according to Lunardi) and either Wisconsin or Michigan State (who have top-20 RPIs). If NU gets those victories and holds serve against weaker teams, I think the ‘Cats will dance in March.