Close Counts in Horseshoes, Hand Grenades, but Not Basketball

This wasn’t an awful game, but the fact is that playing the way they’d played tonight Northwestern is NOT an NCAA Tournament team. They’re a good team, they’re a 20-win team, but they aren’t an NCAA Tournament team. To be an NCAA Tournament team you need to beat other NCAA Tournament competition from leagues that aren’t one bid leagues. Thus far Northwestern hasn’t done so. Right now I think Northwestern will be back in the NIT to once again. To get beyond that point a couple things need to happen. The most obvious is Northwestern cannot be so dependent on Drew Crawford and John Shurna. If Crawford hadn’t had the game of his life tonight scoring 34 points (the most ever by a Creighton opponent) this would have been the Baylor game all over again. Shurna scored 18 points, but the fact is Creighton did an outstanding job defending him in NU’s offense. A good number of Shurna’s points came from scoring on out of bounds plays.

I think the key player for NU is JerShon Cobb. The natural talent is there for him to score points because while he’s not a great shooter he has the ability to get to the hoop and he’s a good enough free throw shooter to make shots if he gets fouled. The problem is that he doesn’t seem fully healthy from his injured hip and concussion and he still needs to find a way to get somewhat more consistent with his outside shooting in order to create a few more driving lanes. Reggie Hearn has been something of an option as an outside shooter, but I’m afraid his struggles tonight against Creighton might be a portent of the struggles he’ll have against the top-6 teams in the Big Ten.

The major overall issue for Northwestern is defense. The 1-3-1 was okay tonight, but he eventually Creighton started hitting shots against it. The man-to-man was flat out bad as the Blue Jays guards were able to enter the ball into the post and get Doug McDermott any shot he wanted from about a foot away from the basket. I’m very worried about how successful Northwestern will be against teams like Ohio State with Jared Sullinger or Illinois with Myers Leonard if they can’t deny those guys the ball in the post. Perhaps the saving grace is that Creighton is a better shooting team than Illinois or Ohio State, but I can’t be one hundred certain of that because teams have a history of going crazy versus NU from three.

Rebounding is also obviously and issue as NU got outrebounded by 10 tonight. Now, I don’t expect NU to outrebound everybody or really anybody, but I think NU needs to prevent teams for getting second chance shots. I lost count of the number of times that Creighton got a second or third look and cashed in often times for three.

It’s a little frustrating to be at this point right now because I know I started to buy into a lot of the tournament hype. The problem I think is that Northwestern isn’t getting any better. I actually think they played better defense at the start of the year in the Charleston Classic than they have in the last three games. Maybe that is simply because those teams were worse than the teams NU has played the last three games, but I have trouble believing Tulsa is worse than Eastern Illinois. Bottom line, work has to be done for NU to make the Big Dance. The good news is that the Big Ten is strong enough plenty of chances for quality wins exist, the bad news is the Big Ten is strong enough that if things don’t get better Northwestern will once again finish with 7 or 8 league wins and be right back where they ended last year. The NIT is better than nothing, but it’s tremendously frustrating to have the NCAA Tournament within sight, but constantly trip and fall before reaching the finish line.

Northwestern @ Creighton: My Prediction

I don’t know why this game gets an entirely separate post for a prediction, but it does. I suppose one could say it is due to the importance of this game, but I don’t want to start putting too much emphasis on any one contest as we saw the possible disappointment of that with the Baylor game. Still, this is an important game. A win tomorrow night will put Northwestern in a great position for a successful NCAA Tournament run. However, such a win will be tough to get. Not only does Creighton field a pretty good team, but they’ll have a Big Ten-like home court advantage with 17,000 people expected at the CenturyLink Center. The fact is that Northwestern didn’t excel on the road last season in Big Ten play has me a bit nervous. Still, if Northwestern is going to make the tournament they need to play well on the road in the Big Ten so why not establish that ability vs Creighton?

Looking at Creighton, they’re a fast paced, score a ton of points, play average defense type of team. That’s fairly similar to Northwestern, though, I’d say Northwestern can be better on defense just based on the unpredictability of using the 1-3-1 zone. Also, while we can’t say Luka Mirkovic is a superstar, he does give Northwestern the biggest player on the court. That counts for something on defense and on the glass if Luka brings an attitude of aggression to the court.

The numbers say Creighton is a better offensive team than Northwestern and Creighton forward Doug McDermott is playing out of his mind. He’s the nation’s second leading scorer and makes 57% of his threes! Basically, he’s John Shurna last year before Shurna’s ankle injury. I know Northwestern is going to present more of a challenge for McDermott than the Jays’ previous opponents, but I’m still worried about him and his offensively talented teammates.

I expect a fast paced up and down style game. I’m a little worried NU won’t have as much of an advantage as they might in some non-conference games because this is the second year in a row NU has played Creighton and it is the third year in a row Greg McDermott has coached against NU having guided an Iowa State team NU beat two years ago. Without a doubt this game will be high scoring. The team that shoots better will probably win it and though I totally hope I’m wrong, Creighton does average more made threes than NU and I think Creighton has the advantage playing in Omaha. I predict: Creighton, 87 Northwestern, 82*



*I predicted NU to beat Baylor so clearly I can be wrong.

Wildcats NCAA Tournament Hopes Can Get Serious with Wins in Next Eight Days

I know various projections have Northwestern in the NCAA Tournament right now, but at this point I don’t see Northwestern as an NCAA Tournament team. So far Northwestern has lost to the only sure BCS-conference NCAA Tournament team they faced in Baylor and that loss wasn’t even close. Yes, the ‘Cats have nice wins over some mid-major tournament teams and a win over possible bubble team Seton Hall, but that’s not enough yet for me to put them in the Big Dance. There was a time when I would have been more optimistic, but perhaps I’ve been beaten down by getting my hopes up so much over the past few years only to see them crushed. Sometimes I honestly wonder if Northwestern has a basketball program just to make their fans’ lives miserable. Of course, that misery would turn to total joy if Northwestern were ever to make the NCAA Tournament because so many long suffering fans and former players would feel as if everything they hoped and worked for over many years finally paid off. So while NU isn’t an NCAA team as of this moment, we have to wonder if they can be one as of March. March might be several months away, but I actually think we’ll get a clue as to NU’s fate on Selection Sunday in the next eight days.

Northwestern will be on the road at ranked opponents Creighton and Ohio State before the New Year starts. While many will say NU has no chance to beat Ohio State and a limited to shot at Creighton, I think wins in both games are possible, though, winning one of two is more realistic. Even just getting one of the two wins, as long as the loss doesn’t look like the Baylor game, will make me shift my view about NU’s tourney chances. The reason is that to make the NCAA Tournament a team can’t just beat everyone they are supposed to beat. They need wins which boost their resume. Perhaps making Creighton even more important, it often helps if one of those resume boosting wins comes outside of conference play. Therefore, let’s look at what NU needs to do to beat the Blue Jays.

Creighton is led in scoring and rebounding by Doug McDermott. The Jays are 9-1 and McDermott has been their leading scorer in 9 of the 10 games and the leading rebounder in 8 of the 10 games. But don’t start to believe Creighton is a one man team. They squad also features point guard Antoine Young who is a double figure scorer and an excellent ball handler. He’s not a great shooter like McDermott who makes 57% of his three point shot is, but Young’s quickness could give NU’s guards some trouble.

Creighton also has a center in Gregory Echenique who scores almost double figures and who has collected 1/3 of his rebounds on the offensive end of the floor. Considering that the ‘Cats struggled at times to secure the glass against smaller teams this season this has to be a concern. NU needs to see Luka Mirkovic put together his second strong game in a row and really play with attitude and focus.
Stopping McDermott and Young is perhaps an even tougher task with Creighton as a team making 43% of their threes and having almost a 2-to-1 assist to turnover ratio. The 1-3-1 zone seems a little risky to employ. The only thing that might make it worth considering is that Northwestern might be a stronger team than any of the squads Creighton posted those numbers against. Still, I’d like to see NU play man defense. I think the ‘Cats can handle the Blue Jays if they play with focus and intensity. They just can’t be lackadaisical. Also, I’d like to see Reggie Hearn guard Young as I think his 6-4 size and bulk will be tough for the 6-0 Young. I’d also like to see Drew Crawford and JerShon Cobb rotate on McDermott as they are NU’s most athletic players and the best way to stop him is probably not to let him catch the ball in an area where he can make plays. Some might suggest John Shurna take that defensive assignment, but I don’t want Shurna so exhausted from chasing McDermott through screens that he doesn’t have the legs to hit shots. Realistically, this should be a high scoring game and NU needs at least 25 points for Shurna to win that type of game. If John has no legs to get into this shot we could see a Central Connecticut State type performance and nobody wants that. However, if Shurna knocks down 6-7 threes NU has a got a great chance. As a team, I’d say Northwestern needs to make at least 12 threes to win this contest. That’s possible as Creighton’s three point defense has been just average, but NU needs to make it look just bad. NU’s centers need to hit some shots and a healthy Alex Marcotullio would help a lot too (though I don’t want to assume he’ll play). Also, NU cannot just expect to hit threes and win. The threes are a key factor, but the basket must be attacked as well. With that in mind, I’m really hoping we’ll see JerShon Cobb step up and have a big game. He’s got the talent and he seems to be getting more into the flow these last few games. This would be a big game for him to up his game and make some big plays. Obviously, Drew Crawford is also a factor whenever NU wants to attack the hoop, when he does so he must make his free throws. It’ll take a great effort, but NU can beat Creighton. They can beat Ohio State too, but that’ll take an even greater effort, but beating Creighton could be a great springboard. I’ll have an official prediction up in the next day or so. I want to believe NU can win this, but I know it’ll be a tough task.

John and Juice Take ‘Cats to 4-0 for First Time Since ’93-94

Northwestern beat Creighton 65-52 on Sunday night to move to 4-0 for the first time since the ’93-94 season. That is the same year the Wildcats last won a postseason game when they defeated DePaul in the NIT. NU has bigger goals than the NIT this season and this win combined with the chance to get a victory Tuesday against Georgia Tech could help them reach those goals. Not surprisingly NU was led by John Shurna both in points and rebounds, but he wasn’t the only player to really step up today. Juice Thompson scored a season high 18 points and dished out 3 assists including an impressive alley-op feed to Shurna for Shurna’s third impressive slam of the night.

NU also got really good contributions off the bench from Davide Curletti, Mike Capocci, Jeff Ryan, and Alex Marcotullio. The only one of those guys who posted a real significant stat line was Curletti who scored 7 points and tied for a team high with 6 rebounds. It was great to see Curletti find a shooting touch hitting an early three and swishing two free throws. If NU gets shooting production from the five spot the offense will open up even more. Curletti also did do a respectable job defending the larger Kenny Lawson Jr. Capocci only scored two points, but was another Wildcat to really hit the boards hard and he helped the inside defense as well. If JerShon Cobb’s shots don’t start to fall with some regularity, I’d look for Coach Bill Carmody to use Capocci more as the season continues. Marcotullio and Jeff Ryan did their usual solid job defensively. They both played tough at the top of the 1-3-1 and made life tough for the Blue Jay offense. Marcotullio’s biggest play was to tip a pass on the play which allowed Drew Crawford a dunk to finish off the Wildcat victory.

Crawford actually had a really subpar game, but he did manage to score 7 points. The fact is that he will have much better games and probably will have one Tuesday night. We’ve become so use to having Juice, Shurna, and Crawford all play great, but the fact is that they all probably aren’t going to have great games every time out. It is an excellent sign that one of the big three can have an off night and the ‘Cats can still get a 13 point win.

Part of the reason for that double-digit win was NU’s improved defense in both the 1-3-1 and the switching man-to-man. In that switching-man it was an improved second half effort on Blue Jay star Kenny Lawson Jr. that really made a difference. After the game Bill Carmody credited Luka Mirkovic’s hard work on defense in the second half. I have to say that after a tough first half Luka really did step up on the defensive end. He still needs to get much better on offense and can’t miss late free throws like he did tonight and last year vs Wisconsin, but at least he stepped and didn’t get pushed around in the second half. Perhaps offensive improvement is the next step for Luka.

I’ll wrap up here for now and tomorrow look back a little more at this win and ahead to Tuesday’s big game vs Georgia Tech.

Visit from Creighton gives NU chance to Boost Resume

Northwestern doesn’t have many chances in their non-conference schedule to build a tournament resume, but they will get a challenge from a Creighton squad and program with considerable postseason experience. This year’s Blue Jay squad is 4-1 and returns four starters from last year’s Collegeinsider.com Tournament semi-finalist team. On Friday Creighton beat Kennesaw State (who beat future NU opponent Georgia Tech) 75-57. Northwestern (3-0) hasn’t played in over a week since beating Arkansas-Pine Bluff. The Wildcats are 3-0 and will get another chance of their own to play with a short turnaround when they face Georgia Tech in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge on November 30th.

Creighton is led in the backcourt by 6-0 guard Antoine Young. He’s a versatile guard who averages 13.6ppg and also greater then four rebounds and assists a game. He’ll be an interesting matchup for the Wildcat backcourt and especially freshman JerShon Cobb. Cobb showed great athleticism playing defense against Arkansas-Pine Bluff, but he also had some major turnover problems and will need to secure the ball as NU won’t be able to turn the ball over as much and still get away with a victory as they did versus Pine Bluff.

One reason this game will be a good game for NU in terms of improving and getting ready for the Big Ten and Georgia Tech is Creighton has some size. NU is still looking to get production from the center position, especially from Luka Mirkovic who is NU’s only player with both size and mass. Mirkovic will be facing the MVC preseason Player of the Year in 6-9 250 pound Kenny Lawson Jr. who is posting 12.6ppg and 6.2rpg. He is by far the best big man NU has played this year. Mirkovic has the talent to be one of the better true centers in the Big Ten, but hasn’t lived up to the hype he had when recruited. Watching what other teams in the Big Ten have inside it is important that he start to do so consistently or the Wildcats will struggle and might actually post less wins this year than last year.

Fans should also watch forwards Doug McDermott and Darryl Ashford who both post double figures from the Blue Jays at 14.4 and 10.2ppg. On the face of it one would conclude this could be an offensive shootout with those guys shooting for the Jays and John Shurna, Drew Crawford, and Juice Thompson making shots for the Wildcats. That could very well happen, but in such a matchup the team which plays better on defense is usually the winner. It’s well known that NU hasn’t been great on defense, but Creighton struggled against Iowa State who is the only team they played that has anything close to a trio as strong as Shurna, Crawford, and Thompson. Plus, NU has been reported to have been working on their defense over the long break. Northwestern also has the advantage of playing at home, though, the crowd isn’t expected to be great. Still, Welsh-Ryan is sometimes a tough place to shoot the first time you visit and Creighton doesn’t have anybody who has visited Evanston before. I predict: Northwestern, 81 Creighton, 67