Northwestern Basketball: It’s Like Groundhog Day

Hmmm. This looked a lot like the Illinois game. Northwestern played hard and even outrebounded their opponent, but lack of offensive punch outside of Drew Crawford and John Shurna ended up costing the ‘Cats the game.

The positive today really was the hustle and rebounding that Northwestern showed. The negative was the fact that the center position with Davide Curletti was a non-factor and the ‘Cats really didn’t get much offense from Reggie Hearn or Dave Sobolewski either. Also, Northwestern missed some free throws early in the game and those misses are an issue in a two point game as they were in one point games vs Illinois and Michigan. The free throws and the number of silly turnovers were perhaps my biggest issue today as I thought that this wasn’t a very fundamentally sound game for NU. Sadly, that seems to have been the case since the loss to Illinois which was also the result of missing chances due to stupid turnovers and missed free throws.

Also like the Illinois game I’m shocked at NU’s last play. What the hell was that? Once it was clear that it was going nowhere with one timeout remaining I’m not sure why NU didn’t call one. It was pretty clear after Purdue switched when Sobolewski drove past a Crawford screen that whatever was planned wasn’t going to work. At that point a timeout needed to be called.

The lack of fundamental play from this team really has me frustrated and that last play looked so freaking stupid that I just want to throw things. Northwestern is now going to play Nebraska on Thursday to see who isn’t the worst team in the Big Ten. In a year when some people thought Northwestern was an NCAA Tournament team. That’s really bad.

Whether you agree or not it seems pretty clear that Bill Carmody will be fired at the end of this season. Personally, if I were Jim Phillips and I knew I was going to make that decision, I would seriously consider firing Carmody now. You’d get a look at what Tavaras Hardy, who by all reports is NU’s main recruiter as a coach, can do as a game coach and you’d also be able to start making subtle inquires for a national coaching search. At this point to sit through 11 more games where Bill Carmody is a lame duck in every way except an official announcement is just stupid. Let’s do something that actually makes it look like we want to move the program forward.

Bill Carmody Signs Contract Extension

Northwestern extended the contract of men’s basketball coach Bill Carmody today. It was reported in the fall that NU and Carmody were working towards an extension, but I think many thought Northwestern athletic director Jim Phillips would wait until the end of the current season before letting Carmody sign on the dotted line for what many suspect is a multi-year extension that will keep Carmody at NU at least through the graduation of the current freshmen class.

While I don’t agree with the Trib’s assessment that most NU fans are less than thrilled to see Carmody stay, I will say that Bill Carmody seems to have become the most divisive NU athletic figure since Gary Barnett in the weeks after his departure for Colorado. That sounds impressive, but the truth is everyone could agree that Kevin O’Neill’s attitude and outlook wasn’t a good fit for NU and that as a great of people as Bill Foster and Ricky Byrdsong were they weren’t good enough coaches to win at NU at the time. On the other hand, Carmody has won just enough games to make a sound argument he’s best NU basketball coach since Pearl Harbor was bombed, but has lost just enough to make others see him as a one trick pony whose offensive genius is overshadowed by his inability to coach defense and recruit skilled big men. People also get on Carmody because he likes red wine and shows emotion on the sidelines. Personally, I prefer white wine, but I couldn’t care less that Carmody prefers red. Also, the most successful coach in the history of college basketball, Mr. Robert Montgomery Knight, was the king of sideline antics. Personally, I go to bed each night hoping that Carmody will be even half as entertaining as Knight. Honestly, if Bill Carmody picked up a chair and threw it when NU was getting homered at home by the Big Ten refs the media coverage it would generate would probably be the best thing ever to happen to Northwestern basketball. Heck, ESPN would probably even send Knight to Evanston to interview Carmody, but I digress. Let’s get back to the point.

The issue is whether or not Carmody’s extension was the right move. Carmody’s winning percentage of .472 at NU isn’t great, but it is .112 points higher than the highest percentage of the four coaches who preceded him. Carmody’s two postseason appearances in 10 years aren’t great, but it’s better than most of Northwestern basketball history. He has directed some the most successful seasons in NU basketball history. In addition, Carmody’s recruiting has picked up and he has constructed a nucleus of talent which looks to be NU’s strongest in some time. Even with the graduation of Juice Thompson at the end of this season, NU should be strong next year with John Shurna as a senior, Drew Crawford as a junior, and a very mature sophomore in JerShon Cobb. Add a decent point guard to those three and NU might even be better than this season.

On the other hand, Carmody’s winning percentage is still below .500. He’s also only gotten to the postseason twice in 10 years and while it is Northwestern, those numbers are certainly not numbers which meet the goals Dr. Phillips or most fans have for the program (at least I hope not). Also, though, NU’s recruiting has improved, I don’t see any players who are truly difference makers or program changing recruits. The players on the roster might come together to make the NCAA Tournament, but there is clearly a small margin for error with these guys and Shurna’s injury and Kevin Coble’s departure might have pushed NU outside of that margin for error. Speaking of Coble, it sounds in many ways like he and his family were pretty selfish and motivated more by their self interests than the NU basketball program’s but one has to wonder what exactly happened between Carmody and Coble family that both sides couldn’t stick it out for one more season with so much at stake (e.g. NU in the tourney, Kevin’s shot at pro ball, Carmody’s legacy as a coach). Also, even with some recruiting improvements this year’s NU roster (supposedly one of the best ever) has one point guard and one true center. That’s not good for a team that is supposed to compete in the Big Ten.

As I hope you can see from above, I see both sides on Bill Carmody. I honestly think he’s a pretty good coach, especially on offense. Any basketball coach/player with a good eye can see that NU’s offense is very complex and hard to guard when run with good players. That’s why Carmody’s mentor Pete Carill was able to get work as an NBA assistant, the Princeton offensive schemes are 100% solid. Unfortunately, Carmody has some limitations which can’t be corrected by even the most brilliant offense. Some aren’t his fault, for example I can’t think of another major college program that conveys more of a sense of “un-big timeness” than NU. That goes for game day (can we please cut out the audio only pregame highlights no one can hear and the improv stuff that just seems dumb?) and the program’s facilities both for game play and practice. I’m not sure any coach could overcome those and break through with top-50 recruits regularly at NU. Some of Carmody’s limitations are his own fault, though. For example, the fact NU has games they simply don’t show up for has to somewhat be traced back to the coach. I’m not saying Carmody isn’t trying to fire his teams up, but clearly the psychological side of coaching isn’t a Bill Carmody strength. Carmody’s teams’ refusal to play defense is also a problem that he has to take the blame for.

If you’ve read this far you probably expect me to give you a bottom line on Bill Carmody’s extension, but I’m finding it nearly impossible to do so. No matter how much people may want to do so, Bill Carmody can’t be evaluated on the same scale as other Big Ten coaches. I honestly believe if NU could play any defense at all and had a center with a more well-rounded game than Luka Mirkovic the Wildcats would probably be in the top-25 right now. But isn’t it Carmody’s fault they don’t? Well, not if you consider he didn’t build Welsh-Ryan Arena or refuse to spend money to upgrade it any time in the last 30 years. If it had been up to me I probably wouldn’t have extended Carmody’s contract until this season was over, but just because Carmody is back doesn’t mean all his assistants will be. Maybe this offseason is finally the year NU gets a defensive expert. If I were Phillips that would have been one of my criteria for Carmody’s retention if NU doesn’t make the Big Dance. The sad fact is NU basketball has problems that won’t be solved with a coaching change. If NU really wants to be serious about competing for Big Ten Titles in basketball they’ll make an effort to ensure Welsh-Ryan and the rest of the facilities and amenities for NU’s program and its fans are up to Big Ten standards. Maybe then we can truly evaluate Bill Carmody (or any coach) on the same scale as his counterparts.

Carmody and Phillips Finalizing Extension: The Fictional (but based on fact) Fan Reaction

The Chicago Tribune reported today that Bill Carmody and NU Athletic Director Jim Phillips are close to finalizing an extension to the coach’s contract which runs out at the end of this season. It sounds like for the most part the details are worked out, but according to Carmody “lawyer language” is left to be dealt with. I don’t know what “lawyer language” is exactly, but then again I suspect I don’t really want to know either. I have to assume this means that Carmody is going to be coaching Northwestern for at least the next two or three years (as I’ll guess that’s a fairly standard extension length) and I have to say I’m fine with that. I suspect everyone will be when NU makes the NCAA Tournament this year—and I do think that’ll happen—but let’s have some with some possible reactions from the wide variety of positions NU basketball fans hold. I came up with four, but more probably exist.

NOTE: I didn’t actually see all the reactions below, but I’ve heard things close to a number of them. Also, while #1 and #4 are meant to be pretty extreme, I’d be willing to bet that you can find people inside Welsh-Ryan Arena or on Wildcatreport’s message boards who hold those perspectives.

Reaction # 1: The Overly Optimistic/Blindly Positive Fan

This is the greatest thing ever to happen to NU basketball. Bill Carmody knows more about basketball than James Naismith, who by the way also wouldn’t have gotten NU into the NCAA Tournament in the last 10 years either, and doing this will tremendously help recruiting because Dai-Jon Parker was just worried NU would fire Carmody so he went to Vandy because he knew Stallings was on solid ground. This move ensures NU the NCAAs in the next two years.

Reaction # 2: The Positive, but Realistic Fan

This is the right move. Yeah, it’s been ten years, but let’s be honest it’s been 100 years and NU didn’t even sniff the NCAA Tournament until two years ago. That makes Bill Carmody the best thing NU basketball has going right now. Sure, it’d have been better to have been in the tourney before twitter became a thing, but if we’re going to go this season it’s because of what Carmody’s has built over the last two years. Plus, if we go this year we probably go back next year with Shurna as a senior. Also, it might help recruiting, that’s debatable, but it can’t hurt.

Reaction # 3: The Confused Fan (and somewhat negative) fan

Why do this now? I get that NU has had two nice years, but what happened to this being a make or break year for NU? How is it a make or break year for the ‘Cats if Carmody can go back home to Wilmette after his teams blow leads and not worry about his job? Who the hell does he think he is—Pat Fitzgerald? (ed note: this fan is so confused he forgot about the 317 times the story about Fitz’s Northfield home was linked on Wildcat Report). Look, if NU makes the tournament this year I’ll pay Carmody’s extension myself, but I don’t know why any reason existed to do this now. It just has me confused.

Reaction # 4: The Anti-Carmody Reaction/Negative Fan Reaction

WHAT!!!??? Thanks, Phillips. Next you’ll be moving home football games away from Ryan Field. HE DID THAT TOO?!!? WHAT! I miss Mark Murphy. This is awful I can’t believe any athletic administrator would reward ten years of failure. That’s right. The last ten years have been a total failure. I don’t care about the NIT! If you do you’re just someone who is satisfied with being mediocre. That’s not me. I’m a Winner! You know what NIT stands for? Not in Tournament. You see that first word. Yeah, NOT!!! Jeez, this just ensures we’ll see another half a decade of average at best recruits, negative body language on the sideline, and not enough public appearances to promote the program. If Phillips is going to be stupid enough to give Carmody an extension one of the requirements ought to be that he heads down to Michigan Avenue to pass out free Northwestern Basketball T-Shirts to everybody he sees. We’re supposed to be Chicago’s Big Ten team, right? I’m so upset I’m staying home from the Arkansas-Pine Bluff game now.



My Final Thought: I’m personally with #2. My view is Carmody is a good coach who has NU in a position to be successful this year. With one or two more solid recruits I think NU basketball will trend solidly upwards with Shurna and Crawford getting better and better all the time.

2010-2011...A Critical Year

Packing Welsh-Ryan Arena long term is just one of the possible results if NU has a good year.

Though I rarely post on them, I enjoy going to the various Northwestern message boards and reading the posts. I think all things considered, Northwestern fans tend to have far more reasoned message board debates than fans of nearly any other school. Sure, a few fans are strongly positioned in certain stances, generally related to the head basketball coach, that they aren’t really going to change their mind or truly argue reason in a debate, but most of what you read from NU fans is pretty good. Still, even amongst us reasoned NU fans, you still sometimes get a reactionary post that expresses great frustration after a bad game, the failure to land a recruit, or the creation of a boring schedule. Even with my best efforts to be reasonable, I’m sure after some of the tough losses of the last few years I let some frustration show as well. Most recently, if we eliminate the schedule issues, the frustration from fans has revolved around recruiting. Since landing David Sobolewski and Tre Demps this summer, NU has targeted several big man recruits. None have come to NU. That led to a few recent posts calling for the firing of an assistant coach or even one poster who wanted NU to replace Bill Carmody with a dynamic young coach to spice up recruiting.

I think making such arguments based on some recruiting losses in the summer and early fall is, frankly, ridiculous, but the posts did remind me just how critical this coming season is for Northwestern. In fact, recruiting momentum is just one of about a half dozen things which could turn for the NU program based on the success or failure of this coming season. I am cautiously optimistic for NU’s success, but realizing just how critical this year is, I think I’d drive myself to depression if I didn’t try to take a positive outlook. I don’t really have time to post on every issue, but I want to look at a few things NU’s success or failure this year will likely determine.

1) Attendance – Northwestern is working like crazy to market their sports and increase attendance to at least respectable levels. Coming of two postseason appearances with expectations high for the 2010-11 season, this is the best chance to market NU basketball in years. However, Northwestern faces the hurdle of a weak non-conference schedule and the always fickle NU fans. If the ‘Cats, with expectations, come out and have a disappointing year, it could make the future marketing of NU basketball a near impossibility no matter how many marketing experts Jim Phillips hires.

2) Recruiting – I mentioned this above as the latest hot button issue, but let’s go more in-depth. A second grader could tell us how to negative recruit against Northwestern. Just mention they haven’t ever been to the NCAA Tournament and haven’t won the Big Ten since the 1930s. If a second grader can figure out an argument, you can bet Fran McCaffery, Kevin Stallings, and Johnny Dawkins can figure it out as well. This is the year NU can finally shut that argument down, but if they fail to do so, it might stand for another few years.

3) Media Attention – Some of the media attention NU was going to get left with Kevin Coble. His return to form was a built in story the press would have loved, but NU still has at least six and possibly more games this year on CBS or the ESPN family of networks. NU has never hit such a number of national games. If the team does will it will offer a great chance to share the ‘Cats with the nation, which should do a lot for attendance and recruiting as well.

4) Coaching Jobs – This could probably be a whole post on its own, but it isn’t unrealistic to think this season could be one where Bill Carmody and his staff are being closely evaluated by their boss, Dr. Jim Phillips. I’ve mentioned how much I like Carmody several times, but he’s been the coach at Northwestern for 10 years and has not made the NCAA Tournament. This season basically ends his second recruiting cycle and I think most NU experts, and former coach Kevin O’Neill, would say getting NU into the NCAAs isn’t a one recruiting cycle job. You probably do need two. Now, Carmody has had his two and he’s got the best chance to make the Big Dance ever (he’s also got a field which grew to 68 teams). Now, I don’t know if failure to make the NCAA Tournament is a friable offense with the tough Big Ten this year, but such a failure, especially if NU again struggles on defense, might force Carmody to make staff changes if nothing else. After all, I seriously doubt Dr. Phillips intends to give his coach 15 years (or three recruiting cycles) to make the Big Dance.

I could go on, but the point is this season is critical for the future of Northwestern basketball. I’m be watching very closely starting November 12th and I’m sure you all will be as well. I guess what we should do is try to encourage others to do the same and see if we can help out with point number one.

NU’s Full Schedule Released: What’s the Problem(s)?

Northwestern released the full basketball schedule today. It features 29 total games (2 less than last year) and only 1 or 2 games in the non-conference schedule against BCS conference opposition. Based on last season the best team NU will face is Georgia Tech who NU plays in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge. However, this year’s Georgia Tech team will be lacking a trio of key players from last year’s squad. In point of fact, Georgia Tech might still be NU’s toughest opponent, but I’m actually more worried having to start the season on the road at Northern Illinois. It just seems the type of game Northwestern could lose. Perhaps that’s a negative attitude, but it’s brought on by years of Northwestern fandom. Bottom line, though, while NU’s non-conference opponents aren’t the basketball equivalent of the 1927 Yankees (some are more like 1962 Mets) NU has a great chance to go 11-0 in non-conference play. Of course, NU was 10-2 to start last season and failed to do enough in the Big Ten to make the tournament. NU was 9-0 in 93-94 and ended up in the NIT that year as well. Hopefully, history doesn’t repeat itself this season.

Reading the message boards a number of fans are upset at the schedule. I don’t love it either, but I am a little frustrated at the number of people who simply can’t wait to place blame regarding anything related to NU basketball. Some will say I’m being too kind or that I’m too far in the pro-Bill Carmody camp, but I think anyone who reads this blog regularly knows I’ve had no problem calling out Carmody for what I’ve seen as poor in game decisions. However, I do have a problem calling out Carmody, Jim Phillips, or anyone else for something I can’t judge. I can go to a game or watch it on TV and say what I would have do in the same situation the coach faces. We as fans have no idea what went on behind closed doors when Carmody and Phillips tried to setup this schedule. For all we know NU called Duke, North Carolina, Kansas and UCLA to try and setup games but were turned down by all four. That might not be the case, but we really don’t know. It could be. I’d think that Carmody would have preferred a more competitive schedule, but it is a pretty well known fact that coaches hate playing Princeton Offense teams because they have to alter practice for a couple days before the game. Coaches hate altering practice for even five minutes, if they have to alter it for five days they’re on the verge of panic.

Another problem besides NU running the Princeton Offense is that NU is actually decent enough they can beat you on your home court, but you don’t get anything back for beating them. Say NU went to Kansas and Kansas beat NU 101-64, nobody would be surprised. People would say that’s what Kansas should have done. Now, say NU goes to Kansas and NU wins 70-68. People will want Bill Self fired. Face it, NU gets no respect. All the ‘Cats are to good teams is a game that they should win and that if they don’t might cause the coach to be seeking other employment (see: Steve Alford).

A third problem for NU in scheduling is NU isn’t really a draw on the road. Nobody is going to show up just to see Northwestern. Therefore, some teams probably don’t want NU for a home and home, but as a Big Ten team NU can’t except going someplace 2-for-1 nor can they take a buyout game. Some of you will say NU should do so, when rumors existed Notre Dame offered NU a 2-for-1 in football a few years back I said the same thing, but really if NU wants to be a big time Big Ten program they can’t take the same deal teams give San Diego State or Air Force.

Sometime in the future I’ll really look at what this schedule means, but I think what it means is that NU needs to somehow rack about 21 wins before the Big Ten Tournament in order to make the Big Dance. A 21-8 record should be enough with the strength of this year’s Big Ten.