Well, that was a lot like the Michigan games or the Illinois game or the Purdue game, but the difference was the end result was a Northwestern win. NU still struggled a bit down the stretch as they couldn’t hit a field goal in the final three minutes, but two clutch free throws by John Shurna were enough to allow NU to escape with a 67-66 victory and move to 7-9 in the Big Ten. The target for NU seems to in some ways be on the move based on a loss by N.C. State and a win by Purdue (and what happens in the Illinois-Iowa game tomorrow), but I think we all know that if NU didn’t win this game it would have presented a huge obstacle to seeing NU in the NCAA Tournament.
Really, I can’t say enough about how well John Shurna played in this game. Having been man handled by Penn State all night, he got smashed as soon as he caught the ball on NU’s final possession (the point where a foul should have been called), tried to turn around, was hit on the arm slightly (where the foul was called), walked to the line and sank two free throws with the game (and maybe NU’s postseason fate) on the line. That was to go along with 21 other points, 6 assists, and 5 blocks. If the rest of NU’s team would give the same effort Shurna did the ‘Cats would win games like this easily.
The fact is that while Penn State coach Patrick Chambers might not have liked the final call, Shurna was fouled so many times in this game without getting a whistle it was almost ridiculous. I don’t know what else the kid has to due to earn respect for the officials, but the result was the same against Michigan. Teams beat up Shurna and nothing gets called. You can bet that other Big Ten stars would get those calls.
As we’ve talked about before, Northwestern generally wins games when they shoot the ball well because they can’t play defense at all. Today was a great example of that as NU made 15 three points (including a 4-of-5 day from Drew Crawford and a 4-of-6 day from Alex Marcotullio). However, NU’s 1-3-1 was probably the worst it had been all season. Penn State got countless layups and dunks and just made the ‘Cats look like an embarrassment on defense. As bad as Northwestern is defensively, they can do better than what they did tonight. I still think more effort should be put into man-to-man defense, but I’m starting to see some defensive weaknesses there as Drew Crawford really doesn’t look like a great man-to-man defender when I watch closely despite the fact that his athletic skill would make one think he would be. Hopefully so improvement will happen so where between now and the Ohio State game or that could be a feast for the Buckeyes solid front court.
Regardless, I think we do need to feel could about NU’s first win at Penn State in about a decade because I’m sure there were some mental barriers in playing in the Jordan Center. It’s also a road win which is nice as NU plays another critical road game in a week at Iowa. Now, though, the ‘Cats will look forward to senior night in Evanston on Wednesday. Hopefully, winning a close game also helps get NU over a barrier as last year’s home game vs Ohio State was another contest in which NU couldn’t make the last clutch play. Maybe now that they have they will again.
Showing posts with label Penn State. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Penn State. Show all posts
Saturday, February 25, 2012
Some Quick Thoughts on Today’s Game
-Northwestern should win this game. The Wildcats have so much more to play for and they’ve got the better talent on the floor.
-Penn State is a much better shooting team at home than on the road. This is something of a concern related to the 1-3-1 zone, but NU has some size over Penn State which might even up the rebounding end of things.
-Tim Frazier is a great player and has the advantage of getting the ball in his hands every play. It’ll be interesting to see what NU does defensively against him.
-John Shurna needs to find a way to demand the ball in the clutch if the game gets to that point.
-NU needs to find ways to rest players so they aren’t totally spent at the end of the game in the clutch.
-I think Northwestern wins 68-60.
-Penn State is a much better shooting team at home than on the road. This is something of a concern related to the 1-3-1 zone, but NU has some size over Penn State which might even up the rebounding end of things.
-Tim Frazier is a great player and has the advantage of getting the ball in his hands every play. It’ll be interesting to see what NU does defensively against him.
-John Shurna needs to find a way to demand the ball in the clutch if the game gets to that point.
-NU needs to find ways to rest players so they aren’t totally spent at the end of the game in the clutch.
-I think Northwestern wins 68-60.
Sunday, January 1, 2012
Wildcats Pickup First Win Over Penn State in Five Years
A solid second half which saw Northwestern shoot 71.4% and outscore Penn State by 15 was enough for NU to beat Penn State 68-56 for their first Big Ten win of the season. The win was the Wildcats first over Penn State in their last seven tries and moved the Wildcats record in their last 46-3 in their last 49 games against unranked opponents. The game didn’t start great as Penn State led 26-23 at the half and NU got outrebounded by 11 in the first half and looked sluggish. Thankfully, the ‘Cats rebounded in the second half thanks to some hot shooting and a stronger defensive effort keyed by Alex Marcotullio’s effort off the bench.
Aside from Marcotullio who I will talk about more a little later, I think Drew Crawford stood out above the rest of the Wildcats tonight. Drew played very strong defense on Tim Frazier helping hold the Penn State star to 16 points and forcing 4 turnovers. In addition, Crawford led the Wildcats in scoring 21 points and being assertive towards the hoop, but within the offense. The result was him taking just two threes, but making both and converting going towards the hoop on several occasions early in the second half. When Drew plays within the offense and plays with confidence he can be a special player.
I was also once again impressed with Dave Sobolewski. He played hard and early on seemed to be the only Wildcat who was focused on the game. For the day Sobolewski scored a career high 20 points and I was pleased he did so in a variety of ways. Yes, he was notable as a three point shooter, but he also found several routes towards the hoop to drive and score. Adding that skill to his game will make Sobo a better threat throughout the Big Ten season.
John Shurna was the third Wildcat in double figures with 17 points. It was a solid game. However, it was clear Penn State was very focused on stopping him. As a result, I’m starting to think Coach Carmody needs to go into his files and find some of his set plays which are geared towards getting one guy a shot. The Princeton Offense is great, but it is truly an offense which is set to get an open shot for whoever is open. At times you need to get your best player a shot and those special plays can make that happen when the defense is overly focused on him.
As promised earlier I want to talk about Alex Marcotullio. I thought it was notable that Northwestern played harder when Marcotullio was on the floor. His hustle on defense and his effort to fight for rebounding despite his small size seemed to motivate Luka Mirkovic and some of the bigger Wildcats to fight on the boards as well. I’m leaning towards starting Marcotullio if I’m Bill Carmody, but we’ll have to wait and see.
The major areas of concern for Northwestern continue to be free throw shooting and rebounding. Luka Mirkovic did grab 11 rebounds for NU, but Penn State still outrebounded the Wildcats by nine. Free throw shooting was simply bad with the center position going 2-for-9. I know Luka and Davide can play better and I hope we see that at the free throw line and all over on offense on Wednesday.
Aside from Marcotullio who I will talk about more a little later, I think Drew Crawford stood out above the rest of the Wildcats tonight. Drew played very strong defense on Tim Frazier helping hold the Penn State star to 16 points and forcing 4 turnovers. In addition, Crawford led the Wildcats in scoring 21 points and being assertive towards the hoop, but within the offense. The result was him taking just two threes, but making both and converting going towards the hoop on several occasions early in the second half. When Drew plays within the offense and plays with confidence he can be a special player.
I was also once again impressed with Dave Sobolewski. He played hard and early on seemed to be the only Wildcat who was focused on the game. For the day Sobolewski scored a career high 20 points and I was pleased he did so in a variety of ways. Yes, he was notable as a three point shooter, but he also found several routes towards the hoop to drive and score. Adding that skill to his game will make Sobo a better threat throughout the Big Ten season.
John Shurna was the third Wildcat in double figures with 17 points. It was a solid game. However, it was clear Penn State was very focused on stopping him. As a result, I’m starting to think Coach Carmody needs to go into his files and find some of his set plays which are geared towards getting one guy a shot. The Princeton Offense is great, but it is truly an offense which is set to get an open shot for whoever is open. At times you need to get your best player a shot and those special plays can make that happen when the defense is overly focused on him.
As promised earlier I want to talk about Alex Marcotullio. I thought it was notable that Northwestern played harder when Marcotullio was on the floor. His hustle on defense and his effort to fight for rebounding despite his small size seemed to motivate Luka Mirkovic and some of the bigger Wildcats to fight on the boards as well. I’m leaning towards starting Marcotullio if I’m Bill Carmody, but we’ll have to wait and see.
The major areas of concern for Northwestern continue to be free throw shooting and rebounding. Luka Mirkovic did grab 11 rebounds for NU, but Penn State still outrebounded the Wildcats by nine. Free throw shooting was simply bad with the center position going 2-for-9. I know Luka and Davide can play better and I hope we see that at the free throw line and all over on offense on Wednesday.
Saturday, December 31, 2011
Wildcats Host Penn State on New Year’s Day
Wildcat Nation might still be depressed that Coach Fitz’s football couldn’t get the monkey off their back and win a bowl game, but the basketball ‘Cats are focused on a monkey of their own. Northwestern has lost for consecutive games to Penn State by an average margin of 17 points. Many of Penn State’s players and coaches haven’t been a part of those games, but most of Northwestern’s have and they know those losses have been disappointing and critical to harming NU’s postseason dreams over the past three years. The last Northwestern win over Penn State was in 2007 in Evanston.
Coach Patrick Chambers brings in a Penn State team with an 8-6 record. The Lions are led by point guard Tim Frazier who took over the do everything role that used to belong to Talor Battle. Frazier leads the team with 17.4ppg, 5.6rpg, and 6.9apg. This will be another tough matchup for freshman guard Dave Sobolewski who faced off versus Ohio State’s Aaron Craft in NU’s first Big Ten game of the year. It’s tough to ask Sobolewski to battle these guys, but that’s the Big Ten. You don’t get any off nights as Wisconsin found out in going down to Ohio State.
The fact is that while the Frazier v. Sobolewski matchup might not be an advantage for Northwestern, I think the rest of the floor offers positives for NU. One of the key notes is that NU has size over Penn State at nearly every spot. Penn State’s biggest starter is 6-8 Billy Oliver. Off the bench they’ll bring in Sasa Borovnjak who is 6-9, but the fact is that Luka Mirkovic will have a significant size advantage over anybody Penn State plays. That means Luka needs to get involved in the game early. Luka’s inconsistency has been frustrating for NU fans over the years, but we all know that a strong game from Luka equals a Wildcat victory and this game presents the Wildcat center with the chance to have a big game.
Another Wildcat who has to be expected to have a big game is John Shurna. At 6-9 Shurna is also bigger than any Penn State starter. Sure, Penn State might play zone as opposed to let a 6-5 guy try to guard Shurna, but that means Shurna should have the advantage in getting off open shots and getting off shots with a size advantage. Personally, I called out Drew Crawford and JerShon Cobb for what I thought was selfish play in the Ohio State game, but it seems to me that Coach Bill Carmody had more issues with Shurna based on what he said in the post game after Ohio State. Penn State isn’t one of the stronger teams NU will play this year, but it is probably important that Shurna respond to the adversity of the last game and show up focused from wire to wire on Sunday evening.
As for the rest of Wildcats Drew Crawford should have an advantage in terms of athletic skill which he didn’t have versus Ohio State, but I’d still like to see him take shots within the offense instead of freelancing. Reggie Hearn has been very quite since his big game versus Central Connecticut. I’d like to see either Hearn or Alex Marcotullio start to hit some three point shots and give the Wildcats another realistic scoring threat from behind the arc that teams need to respect. Will that happen on Sunday? It’s hard to say as the consistency hasn’t been there for those two guys yet this year. However, I do think NU will do enough to win this game. I predict: Northwestern, 77 Penn State, 70
Coach Patrick Chambers brings in a Penn State team with an 8-6 record. The Lions are led by point guard Tim Frazier who took over the do everything role that used to belong to Talor Battle. Frazier leads the team with 17.4ppg, 5.6rpg, and 6.9apg. This will be another tough matchup for freshman guard Dave Sobolewski who faced off versus Ohio State’s Aaron Craft in NU’s first Big Ten game of the year. It’s tough to ask Sobolewski to battle these guys, but that’s the Big Ten. You don’t get any off nights as Wisconsin found out in going down to Ohio State.
The fact is that while the Frazier v. Sobolewski matchup might not be an advantage for Northwestern, I think the rest of the floor offers positives for NU. One of the key notes is that NU has size over Penn State at nearly every spot. Penn State’s biggest starter is 6-8 Billy Oliver. Off the bench they’ll bring in Sasa Borovnjak who is 6-9, but the fact is that Luka Mirkovic will have a significant size advantage over anybody Penn State plays. That means Luka needs to get involved in the game early. Luka’s inconsistency has been frustrating for NU fans over the years, but we all know that a strong game from Luka equals a Wildcat victory and this game presents the Wildcat center with the chance to have a big game.
Another Wildcat who has to be expected to have a big game is John Shurna. At 6-9 Shurna is also bigger than any Penn State starter. Sure, Penn State might play zone as opposed to let a 6-5 guy try to guard Shurna, but that means Shurna should have the advantage in getting off open shots and getting off shots with a size advantage. Personally, I called out Drew Crawford and JerShon Cobb for what I thought was selfish play in the Ohio State game, but it seems to me that Coach Bill Carmody had more issues with Shurna based on what he said in the post game after Ohio State. Penn State isn’t one of the stronger teams NU will play this year, but it is probably important that Shurna respond to the adversity of the last game and show up focused from wire to wire on Sunday evening.
As for the rest of Wildcats Drew Crawford should have an advantage in terms of athletic skill which he didn’t have versus Ohio State, but I’d still like to see him take shots within the offense instead of freelancing. Reggie Hearn has been very quite since his big game versus Central Connecticut. I’d like to see either Hearn or Alex Marcotullio start to hit some three point shots and give the Wildcats another realistic scoring threat from behind the arc that teams need to respect. Will that happen on Sunday? It’s hard to say as the consistency hasn’t been there for those two guys yet this year. However, I do think NU will do enough to win this game. I predict: Northwestern, 77 Penn State, 70
Thursday, February 24, 2011
Northwestern’s Tournament Hopes Vanish, Does Bill Carmody Need to Vanish With Them?
I’ve kind of been regarded as the positive Northwestern basketball blog. Obviously, Fire Bill Carmody has been geared towards, well, having Northwestern fire Bill Carmody and Lake the Posts has made it clear he is not fan of Bill Carmody either. I’ve been frustrated at times with Carmody, but I’ve been more supportive than not because I really thought he was making steady gains. Some frustrated NU fans might have called that being content with being mediocre, but I was willing to take steady progress. After all, I’ve seen teams fail to even ever be competitive. Bill Carmody has made NU more competitive overall, but you can’t be a head coach in the Big Ten and beat Penn State less than 10% of the time over a five year span. This 15-12 team might be the best they’ve ever had! Let me make this clear, Northwestern has now beat Penn State just once in their last eleven meetings (and that was because Craig Moore threw in a miracle shot from about 40-feet) and the vast majority of the losses have been in embarrassing fashion. Penn State’s seniors have NEVER lost to Northwestern and they haven’t really ever been all that challenged by NU. NU also hasn’t won at Penn State in almost a decade, but why add to our collective misery by bringing that up.
Let me make it clear here, I’m not saying it’s time for a change just because NU lost to Penn State, and I never thought I’d say this at all, but it’s time for NU to make a change in their head men’s basketball coaching position. It’s time for a change because this latest loss to Penn State convinces me that we’ve maxed out on progress. Remember, I’m content with steady progress and small gains. One major goal I had for progress this year was to beat Penn State. As stupid as that sounds, I really thought it would be a clear piece of evidence that NU was moving forward. Beating them tonight would have been huge because it not only would have been that clear evidence of progress, but it would have knocked PSU off the tourney bubble and pretty much evened them with NU in terms of where they sat postseason wise. Mostly, though, it would have shown that Northwestern had overcome another hurdle in their quest to make the NCAA Tournament. Instead, we got more of the same.
If NU gets one more Big Ten win they will have the same total as they got last season (7), but 4 of NU’s 6 current Big Ten wins are over Indiana and Iowa who are the only two teams below NU standings-wise. A potential 7th would probably have to come over Minnesota who has lost 6 of their last 7 (but did beat NU) because the ‘Cats probably aren’t winning at Wisconsin who is 151-11 at the Khol Center under Bo Ryan. As much as I say I’m all for simple progress, I’m not sure that is steady progress because last year’s 7 wins featured victories over better teams.
Let me also answer the questions, would I change my tune on Bill Carmody if NU upset Wisconsin? As someone who up until today was pretty content with Carmody as the coach, I guess I might swing back the other way, but NU almost upset Ohio State this year and even if NU had beat the Buckeyes getting our butts kicked by Penn State twice again this year might have still sent me over the edge. Seriously, beating Penn State less than 10% of the time! How is that possible? Well, let’s look at tonight…
Northwestern scored just four point in the game’s first eight minutes and basically came out looking as if they had no interest in playing. Penn State on the other hand looked like they were playing their most important game of the season—which they were—but so was Northwestern and by watching NU you couldn’t tell. Instead, it looked more like they were a 1-14 team playing out the end of the season. To say NU was as flat as a pancake would be inaccurate because pancakes have some height. NU was flat as the flattest tabletop you’ve ever seen. Early in the game it was turnovers that really hurt NU. Yes, they missed a lot of shots, but not even getting shots hurt NU even more. The game started with Juice Thompson getting Luka a great shot and Luka let the ball go through his hands. It pretty much set the tone for the day. Now, let’s be clear, the fact Luka has no hands and Drew Crawford once again pulled Harry Houdini and disappeared isn’t really all the fault of their coach, but clearly they aren’t responding to whatever methods of motivation they’re getting to try and make them successful and, sadly, if at some point the players don’t come around the coach gets held responsible.
Another problem was it took until a JerShon Cobb three late in the second half for someone other than Juice Thompson, John Shurna, Luka Mirkovic, or Drew Crawford to score for NU. Crawford only had two points at half and despite the fact he seemed to be able to get to the basket whenever he wanted, he seemed to be content to miss threes for far too long. Of course, everyone except Juice Thompson decided to miss threes tonight. Alex Marcotullio scored 0 and NU’s bench overall had zero. Davide Curletti hasn’t scored in almost two weeks.
NU’s defense again was pretty bad as Penn State’s guards made a number of way-to-easy entry passes which resulted in layups. NU did an okay job on the glass, but it wasn’t enough to keep Penn State from the some critical offensive rebounds.
I don’t know what else to say. This sucked. It was just like twice last year where NU played big games vs Penn State and Penn State looked like the only Division 1 team on the floor. It was just like two weeks ago when the same thing happened.
This whole situation sucks because I really don’t want to see Bill Carmody get fired, but seriously, how can Jim Phillips think it’s a good idea to retain him? Anybody with basic logic and a seat at or television tuned to tonight’s game would have to tell you it’s time to make a change. NU has had a shot to make a move towards the tournament four times this season. When they hosted Wisconsin (result: NU gets creamed), when they traveled to Michigan and Penn State (result: bad start resulted in loss, Penn State hammered NU), and tonight (result: bad start results in Penn State hammering NU). This failure to show up in big games isn’t new to this year either. It’s happened in other huge games like the 2009 game at Ohio State where NU was truly playing for an NCAA-berth. They day NU started poorly, came back, but the poor start put NU in the hole that prevented the ‘Cats from getting the win. Maybe these slow starts are simply because NU’s players are no good, but I see evidence that tells me that’s not the case.
Northwestern will probably beat Wisconsin on Sunday (let’s remember I said this) and that win will probably save Bill Carmody’s job. That’ll be good for Carmody and his family and in the real world that’s good because I don’t want to root for anybody to lose their source of income, but the sad part is that even as momentous as that will be, it won’t get NU into the Big Dance because they lost every other showcase game they had this season and that's not good. Not good at all.
Let me make it clear here, I’m not saying it’s time for a change just because NU lost to Penn State, and I never thought I’d say this at all, but it’s time for NU to make a change in their head men’s basketball coaching position. It’s time for a change because this latest loss to Penn State convinces me that we’ve maxed out on progress. Remember, I’m content with steady progress and small gains. One major goal I had for progress this year was to beat Penn State. As stupid as that sounds, I really thought it would be a clear piece of evidence that NU was moving forward. Beating them tonight would have been huge because it not only would have been that clear evidence of progress, but it would have knocked PSU off the tourney bubble and pretty much evened them with NU in terms of where they sat postseason wise. Mostly, though, it would have shown that Northwestern had overcome another hurdle in their quest to make the NCAA Tournament. Instead, we got more of the same.
If NU gets one more Big Ten win they will have the same total as they got last season (7), but 4 of NU’s 6 current Big Ten wins are over Indiana and Iowa who are the only two teams below NU standings-wise. A potential 7th would probably have to come over Minnesota who has lost 6 of their last 7 (but did beat NU) because the ‘Cats probably aren’t winning at Wisconsin who is 151-11 at the Khol Center under Bo Ryan. As much as I say I’m all for simple progress, I’m not sure that is steady progress because last year’s 7 wins featured victories over better teams.
Let me also answer the questions, would I change my tune on Bill Carmody if NU upset Wisconsin? As someone who up until today was pretty content with Carmody as the coach, I guess I might swing back the other way, but NU almost upset Ohio State this year and even if NU had beat the Buckeyes getting our butts kicked by Penn State twice again this year might have still sent me over the edge. Seriously, beating Penn State less than 10% of the time! How is that possible? Well, let’s look at tonight…
Northwestern scored just four point in the game’s first eight minutes and basically came out looking as if they had no interest in playing. Penn State on the other hand looked like they were playing their most important game of the season—which they were—but so was Northwestern and by watching NU you couldn’t tell. Instead, it looked more like they were a 1-14 team playing out the end of the season. To say NU was as flat as a pancake would be inaccurate because pancakes have some height. NU was flat as the flattest tabletop you’ve ever seen. Early in the game it was turnovers that really hurt NU. Yes, they missed a lot of shots, but not even getting shots hurt NU even more. The game started with Juice Thompson getting Luka a great shot and Luka let the ball go through his hands. It pretty much set the tone for the day. Now, let’s be clear, the fact Luka has no hands and Drew Crawford once again pulled Harry Houdini and disappeared isn’t really all the fault of their coach, but clearly they aren’t responding to whatever methods of motivation they’re getting to try and make them successful and, sadly, if at some point the players don’t come around the coach gets held responsible.
Another problem was it took until a JerShon Cobb three late in the second half for someone other than Juice Thompson, John Shurna, Luka Mirkovic, or Drew Crawford to score for NU. Crawford only had two points at half and despite the fact he seemed to be able to get to the basket whenever he wanted, he seemed to be content to miss threes for far too long. Of course, everyone except Juice Thompson decided to miss threes tonight. Alex Marcotullio scored 0 and NU’s bench overall had zero. Davide Curletti hasn’t scored in almost two weeks.
NU’s defense again was pretty bad as Penn State’s guards made a number of way-to-easy entry passes which resulted in layups. NU did an okay job on the glass, but it wasn’t enough to keep Penn State from the some critical offensive rebounds.
I don’t know what else to say. This sucked. It was just like twice last year where NU played big games vs Penn State and Penn State looked like the only Division 1 team on the floor. It was just like two weeks ago when the same thing happened.
This whole situation sucks because I really don’t want to see Bill Carmody get fired, but seriously, how can Jim Phillips think it’s a good idea to retain him? Anybody with basic logic and a seat at or television tuned to tonight’s game would have to tell you it’s time to make a change. NU has had a shot to make a move towards the tournament four times this season. When they hosted Wisconsin (result: NU gets creamed), when they traveled to Michigan and Penn State (result: bad start resulted in loss, Penn State hammered NU), and tonight (result: bad start results in Penn State hammering NU). This failure to show up in big games isn’t new to this year either. It’s happened in other huge games like the 2009 game at Ohio State where NU was truly playing for an NCAA-berth. They day NU started poorly, came back, but the poor start put NU in the hole that prevented the ‘Cats from getting the win. Maybe these slow starts are simply because NU’s players are no good, but I see evidence that tells me that’s not the case.
Northwestern will probably beat Wisconsin on Sunday (let’s remember I said this) and that win will probably save Bill Carmody’s job. That’ll be good for Carmody and his family and in the real world that’s good because I don’t want to root for anybody to lose their source of income, but the sad part is that even as momentous as that will be, it won’t get NU into the Big Dance because they lost every other showcase game they had this season and that's not good. Not good at all.
Tuesday, February 22, 2011
On Thursday NU Looks to Finally Beat Talor Battle
Somehow when no one was looking Northwestern’s matchup with Penn State Thursday on ESPN2 at 8PM turned back into a big game for NU’s tournament hopes. Yes, the Penn State game’s magnitude is based somewhat on an expectation of NU doing something unexpected (I get a just used the phrase expectation of the unexpected, but I think as NU fan that’s something you have to develop otherwise you have no hope in your life) either at Wisconsin or in the Big Ten Tournament, but without a win over Penn State inside Welsh-Ryan even a win at Wisconsin or a run to the BTT’s final game might not be impressive enough to get NU into the Big Dance.
It’s still amazing, and more than a little depressing, to me that Penn State’s senior class has never lost to Northwestern. Of course, one look at Talor Battle’s career stats against NU and you don’t have trouble believing PSU might be the dominate team in the series. What’s really amazing is that with the exception of the 2008-09 game at Penn State in which NU held a large lead before Battle caught fire and lit the Wildcats up in the second half, the games haven’t even been close. We all remember a couple weeks back very well, but if we think back to last season it was the same story twice. NU doesn’t even seem to play Penn State well inside Welsh-Ryan, where they play everybody well!
At times people have focused on matchups and Penn State does have some big athletic guys in Jeff Brooks, Andrew Jones, and David Jackson. All three are about 6-8/9 and can score the basketball in a number of ways as well as rebound. I’ll be the first to admit that those types of players can give NU trouble, but Penn State isn’t the only team in the Big Ten with such guys. There is also Battle, who does seem to catch fire vs NU, but he’s not the only good shooter Northwestern faces during the course of the year. He might be the only one with 2,000-career points (a record he not surprisingly set vs NU), but if NU can contain Demetri McCamey who is bigger and probably a better pure shooter, shouldn’t they be able to contain Battle? For some reason Penn State seems to scare NU.
I actually think some of NU’s game plan vs Illinois is what they need to bring out in order to beat Penn State. Like PSU, Illinois destroyed Northwestern the first times the teams played, when NU was the road team. However, in the ‘Cat home game NU got the better of the Illini. How did they do it? I think one major aspect to NU’s upset of Illinois was letting go of the loss. This might be tougher vs Penn State because it’s not just the loss two weeks ago that they need to let go, but a whole career of failure. However, it’s not worth worrying about. Those games are in the past. They won’t give Penn State any extra points on Thursday nor will they cost NU any.
If NU can’t let go of those past games than anything else I write is worthless, but let’s assume they do and talk a little more specific basketball strategy. First off, I think NU needs to pick up Battle at 90 feet. NU hasn’t done much pressing, but I’m not saying press. Tim Frazier will probably bring the ball up the court for Penn State most of the time, I just want Talor Battle to have a shadow the whole day for tip to the final buzzer. I’d even try to follow him into the locker room at halftime, but that’s probably not allowed. I’d also say that I’d personally choose Alex Marcotullio to be that guy. I know that’d probably mean starting him over JerShon Cobb or Drew Crawford, but the truth is I think Marcotullio is the only guy Northwestern has who consistently fights on defense and I truthfully trust him more than anyone else. If Northwestern ends up with Cobb or Crawford switching all the time and Battle runs a pick-and-roll with a big guy and gets himself isolated on Luka Mirkovic as he did at PSU it’s over for Northwestern. That CAN’T happen, but I’m sure Battle will try to make it occur. Versus Illinois NU did a much better job of not letting guards attack big men and doing so again will be critical.
On offense, I think NU needs to try to play fast again. The slower offense worked a couple times, but Penn State wants to play slow. All their big wins have been low-scoring. I think NU needs to go back to the “see an open shot, pull the trigger” system for this game. They’ll be at home where they shoot better and maybe being given the green light will relax some of the guys who have slumped of late. Sure, if NU employs that game plan and the shots don’t go in then they’re screwed, but they’ve been pretty well screwed with every other game plan they’ve tried versus Penn State, so I’m advocating a different one. Remember, NU’s fearless approach on offense resulted in 55 points in the first half against Georgia Tech, so it does have a track record.
I’d also like to see NU hit the glass hard. Look back at the Ohio State game. OSU is big and quick, but NU hung with them on the glass because they sent four or five guys to the offensive glass every time. That’ll be critical as well because with Jones, Jackson, and Brooks PSU will probably get some offensive rebounds of their own.
In the end, I think this game comes down to how well Northwestern shoots the ball. Northwestern defended Penn State okay (but not great) in Happy Valley and I’m confident the Nits won’t explode on NU in Welsh-Ryan. However, NU’s 2-of-21 three point shooting pretty much cashed any chance NU had of getting a win in the Bryce Jordan Center. Inside Welsh-Ryan NU does shoot much better and I think the freedom to fire will make a difference. The last two wins have silenced a lot of Bill Carmody’s critics, but I really think the great coaches are the ones who you hate to play twice because even if you roll them the first time, you know they’ll have a plan to make life tough for you the second time around. Bill Carmody found a way to do that vs Illinois and I’m thinking (and hoping) this game goes down much the same way. I predict: Northwestern, 71 Penn State, 70
It’s still amazing, and more than a little depressing, to me that Penn State’s senior class has never lost to Northwestern. Of course, one look at Talor Battle’s career stats against NU and you don’t have trouble believing PSU might be the dominate team in the series. What’s really amazing is that with the exception of the 2008-09 game at Penn State in which NU held a large lead before Battle caught fire and lit the Wildcats up in the second half, the games haven’t even been close. We all remember a couple weeks back very well, but if we think back to last season it was the same story twice. NU doesn’t even seem to play Penn State well inside Welsh-Ryan, where they play everybody well!
At times people have focused on matchups and Penn State does have some big athletic guys in Jeff Brooks, Andrew Jones, and David Jackson. All three are about 6-8/9 and can score the basketball in a number of ways as well as rebound. I’ll be the first to admit that those types of players can give NU trouble, but Penn State isn’t the only team in the Big Ten with such guys. There is also Battle, who does seem to catch fire vs NU, but he’s not the only good shooter Northwestern faces during the course of the year. He might be the only one with 2,000-career points (a record he not surprisingly set vs NU), but if NU can contain Demetri McCamey who is bigger and probably a better pure shooter, shouldn’t they be able to contain Battle? For some reason Penn State seems to scare NU.
I actually think some of NU’s game plan vs Illinois is what they need to bring out in order to beat Penn State. Like PSU, Illinois destroyed Northwestern the first times the teams played, when NU was the road team. However, in the ‘Cat home game NU got the better of the Illini. How did they do it? I think one major aspect to NU’s upset of Illinois was letting go of the loss. This might be tougher vs Penn State because it’s not just the loss two weeks ago that they need to let go, but a whole career of failure. However, it’s not worth worrying about. Those games are in the past. They won’t give Penn State any extra points on Thursday nor will they cost NU any.
If NU can’t let go of those past games than anything else I write is worthless, but let’s assume they do and talk a little more specific basketball strategy. First off, I think NU needs to pick up Battle at 90 feet. NU hasn’t done much pressing, but I’m not saying press. Tim Frazier will probably bring the ball up the court for Penn State most of the time, I just want Talor Battle to have a shadow the whole day for tip to the final buzzer. I’d even try to follow him into the locker room at halftime, but that’s probably not allowed. I’d also say that I’d personally choose Alex Marcotullio to be that guy. I know that’d probably mean starting him over JerShon Cobb or Drew Crawford, but the truth is I think Marcotullio is the only guy Northwestern has who consistently fights on defense and I truthfully trust him more than anyone else. If Northwestern ends up with Cobb or Crawford switching all the time and Battle runs a pick-and-roll with a big guy and gets himself isolated on Luka Mirkovic as he did at PSU it’s over for Northwestern. That CAN’T happen, but I’m sure Battle will try to make it occur. Versus Illinois NU did a much better job of not letting guards attack big men and doing so again will be critical.
On offense, I think NU needs to try to play fast again. The slower offense worked a couple times, but Penn State wants to play slow. All their big wins have been low-scoring. I think NU needs to go back to the “see an open shot, pull the trigger” system for this game. They’ll be at home where they shoot better and maybe being given the green light will relax some of the guys who have slumped of late. Sure, if NU employs that game plan and the shots don’t go in then they’re screwed, but they’ve been pretty well screwed with every other game plan they’ve tried versus Penn State, so I’m advocating a different one. Remember, NU’s fearless approach on offense resulted in 55 points in the first half against Georgia Tech, so it does have a track record.
I’d also like to see NU hit the glass hard. Look back at the Ohio State game. OSU is big and quick, but NU hung with them on the glass because they sent four or five guys to the offensive glass every time. That’ll be critical as well because with Jones, Jackson, and Brooks PSU will probably get some offensive rebounds of their own.
In the end, I think this game comes down to how well Northwestern shoots the ball. Northwestern defended Penn State okay (but not great) in Happy Valley and I’m confident the Nits won’t explode on NU in Welsh-Ryan. However, NU’s 2-of-21 three point shooting pretty much cashed any chance NU had of getting a win in the Bryce Jordan Center. Inside Welsh-Ryan NU does shoot much better and I think the freedom to fire will make a difference. The last two wins have silenced a lot of Bill Carmody’s critics, but I really think the great coaches are the ones who you hate to play twice because even if you roll them the first time, you know they’ll have a plan to make life tough for you the second time around. Bill Carmody found a way to do that vs Illinois and I’m thinking (and hoping) this game goes down much the same way. I predict: Northwestern, 71 Penn State, 70
Sunday, February 13, 2011
Groundhog Day Performance: Northwestern Repeats Their Regular Effort vs Penn St.
At the half I really thought Northwestern still a chance in this game. Yes, they’d only scored 15 points, but they’d played enough defense to make me believe that if they came out like they in the second half against Michigan on offense, but played defense they would win. However, NU continued to struggle on offense and while they still played good defense (how many other games would NU have won if they just gave up 61?!), scoring just 44 points isn’t going to get you many wins.
I know a lot of people will put this on the coaching staff (and I’ll have some general thoughts on them later), but I don’t think the game plan NU used toady was that bad—in fact it was really pretty good. They got a lot of open shots they simply missed (missing 15 threes in a row is nearly impossible for a D1 team, but NU managed to do it today) and defensively I have to believe credit for that improved effort goes to an increased emphasis on defense in practice since the loss at Michigan.
The bottom line today is Northwestern simply didn’t take advantage of a myriad of chances they did have. NU missed not only a number of open threes, but they also missed a number of layups of mid-range shots. Luka Mirkovic and Davide Curletti are much too weak in how they attempt shots. I’ve lost count of the number of times they’ve had shots blocked at point blank range because they try to flip in a layup form their hip instead of powering up a shot with their shoulder to the rim. I have to say I really struggle with the idea that Ivan Peljusic could be any worse.
Northwestern also has a number of players who are steak shooters and they were all on bad streaks today. Drew Crawford, Juice Thompson, and John Shurna can all get hot at times, but they were all ice cold today even when open. Shurna (though he has moments) still looks very hurt. I don’t think it is worth sitting him at this point because that ship has probably sailed. Now if you tried to sit Shurna for three weeks he wouldn’t be back until the Big Ten Tournament and having missed that much practice would probably leave him just as off with his shot as he is now. In retrospect I wonder if NU wishes Shurna would have just sat the first three weeks of the Big Ten season. I don’t know, but it’s hard to believe NU could be any worse off than they are now whether Shurna played or not.
Northwestern now sits at 4-9 in the Big Ten and has a real good chance to finish 10th or 11th in the Big Ten this year. I don’t think this loss is on the coaching staff because the players missed so many good looks and the defense was good, but I’m starting to think Jim Phillips needs to consider making a coaching change if Bill Carmody really has only two more years on his contract. I’m not saying Carmody should go at this point (and I’ve never been a fan of in-season changes anyway), but if Carmody’s contract really is up after next year Phillips is in tough spot. He (and Northwestern as whole) would look idiotic to even give Carmody a one year extension if he finishes in the bottom two in the Big Ten, especially if NU continues to look bad in games which are allegedly big games (if NU rallies it’s obviously a different story). It’s a tough position to be in because Carmody has done a lot for NU and isn’t a bad coach, but the problem is you also have a small fan base that rapidly losing interest. Look at NU’s message boards or the number of comments on this blog recently, with each loss less and less people care about NU hoops. The only place people seem to talk about NU hoops a lot is in the comments section of Lake the Posts and that’s been more negative banter than positive.
Honestly, I’m glad I’m not Jim Phillips because I don’t know what I’d do. I will say that if things don't get better vs Iowa and Indiana and it looks like the team quit then I'd probably make a change. So is Carmody coaching for his job vs Indiana and Iowa? Maybe. I guess good news for him is that if he is it's Indiana and Iowa he's playing, though, I'm sure people in Bloomington and Iowa City are thinking the good news in those games is that they're playing Northwestern.
I know a lot of people will put this on the coaching staff (and I’ll have some general thoughts on them later), but I don’t think the game plan NU used toady was that bad—in fact it was really pretty good. They got a lot of open shots they simply missed (missing 15 threes in a row is nearly impossible for a D1 team, but NU managed to do it today) and defensively I have to believe credit for that improved effort goes to an increased emphasis on defense in practice since the loss at Michigan.
The bottom line today is Northwestern simply didn’t take advantage of a myriad of chances they did have. NU missed not only a number of open threes, but they also missed a number of layups of mid-range shots. Luka Mirkovic and Davide Curletti are much too weak in how they attempt shots. I’ve lost count of the number of times they’ve had shots blocked at point blank range because they try to flip in a layup form their hip instead of powering up a shot with their shoulder to the rim. I have to say I really struggle with the idea that Ivan Peljusic could be any worse.
Northwestern also has a number of players who are steak shooters and they were all on bad streaks today. Drew Crawford, Juice Thompson, and John Shurna can all get hot at times, but they were all ice cold today even when open. Shurna (though he has moments) still looks very hurt. I don’t think it is worth sitting him at this point because that ship has probably sailed. Now if you tried to sit Shurna for three weeks he wouldn’t be back until the Big Ten Tournament and having missed that much practice would probably leave him just as off with his shot as he is now. In retrospect I wonder if NU wishes Shurna would have just sat the first three weeks of the Big Ten season. I don’t know, but it’s hard to believe NU could be any worse off than they are now whether Shurna played or not.
Northwestern now sits at 4-9 in the Big Ten and has a real good chance to finish 10th or 11th in the Big Ten this year. I don’t think this loss is on the coaching staff because the players missed so many good looks and the defense was good, but I’m starting to think Jim Phillips needs to consider making a coaching change if Bill Carmody really has only two more years on his contract. I’m not saying Carmody should go at this point (and I’ve never been a fan of in-season changes anyway), but if Carmody’s contract really is up after next year Phillips is in tough spot. He (and Northwestern as whole) would look idiotic to even give Carmody a one year extension if he finishes in the bottom two in the Big Ten, especially if NU continues to look bad in games which are allegedly big games (if NU rallies it’s obviously a different story). It’s a tough position to be in because Carmody has done a lot for NU and isn’t a bad coach, but the problem is you also have a small fan base that rapidly losing interest. Look at NU’s message boards or the number of comments on this blog recently, with each loss less and less people care about NU hoops. The only place people seem to talk about NU hoops a lot is in the comments section of Lake the Posts and that’s been more negative banter than positive.
Honestly, I’m glad I’m not Jim Phillips because I don’t know what I’d do. I will say that if things don't get better vs Iowa and Indiana and it looks like the team quit then I'd probably make a change. So is Carmody coaching for his job vs Indiana and Iowa? Maybe. I guess good news for him is that if he is it's Indiana and Iowa he's playing, though, I'm sure people in Bloomington and Iowa City are thinking the good news in those games is that they're playing Northwestern.
Friday, February 11, 2011
Thoughts on NU @ Penn State, My of Handling Losses, and Bill Carmody as Harry Truman (not all in that order)
Despite my frustrations with this year’s edition of Northwestern’s men’s basketball team I still intend to watch them play Penn State on Sunday at 2:30 and you should as well. Look, I’m about the worst loser in the world. I mean I’ll be respectful of my opponent and everything, but when teams I’m on or that I coach or that I really passionately root for lose, I’m almost physically ill at the thought. I can’t stand the emotion of failure or the empty feeling you get walking out an arena as the loser. Often times that emotional combo translates into anger—especially in regards to teams I cheer for because the total lack of control over the result also factors into my frustration. I think I have from time to time demonstrated that frustration here on this blog. At times it gets directed at the coaching staff and at other times various players. In regards to the coaching staff, I’m not going to try not to make any major judgments on them till the season ends, but I do have a couple general thoughts.
I think the posters over at Wildcat Report who blindly praise Bill Carmody and would even find an excuse for him if he committed a major felony and the people who rip him for everything up to and including his choice of beverage are both wrong. Carmody is fine basketball coach, but honestly he isn’t going on the Mount Rushmore of hoops coaches anytime soon, however, his administration at NU isn’t exactly the basketball version of Ulysses S. Grant’s presidency either. Truth be told, if you want to use a presidential analogy, Carmody will probably be like Harry Truman. He might leave with more negative than positive feelings amongst his constituents (aka the NU fans), but history will prove he had a strong positive impact on the course of Wildcat Nation.
In regards to Sunday’s game, this is the type of situation which the Wildcat football team addresses with the moniker W.I.N at the top of their values pyramid. That stands for “What’s Important Now” and it stresses one’s lack of control over the past and the importance of focusing on what you can control in the present. Northwestern lost to Michigan. I now don’t really care if the cause was poor coaching, poor playing, poor officiating, or the rising national debt. What matters now is that Northwestern is about to play Penn State—a team they CAN beat. I don’t know if PSU is a team NU will beat, but the Lions aren’t exactly the 1976 Indiana Hoosiers either.
Whether or not Jeff Brooks plays (or plays well--he might still be hurt due to his shoulder) for PSU will be a factor. If Brooks plays PSU has three guys who are tall, very athletic, and call all run picks and rolls even better than Michigan’s Jordan Morgan. Brooks is also PSU’s best rebounder and NU’s been prone to allowing extra points on the glass. If Brooks doesn’t play, the front court duo of Andrew Jones and David Jackson is still good, but Brooks brings another dimension, especially on defense where he is an excellent shot blocker.
Penn State’s best player is Talor Battle. The do everything guard is one of a handful of Penn State players who has the ability to get hot from long range and carry his team to big wins. He did so vs Wisconsin earlier in the year and has done so vs NU in the best. Jackson is also a good shooter and since NU tends to make average at best guys look like All-Americans, I’d worry about jump shooting forward Billy Oliver. He could be the next Josh Gasser or Jordan Morgan vs NU’s defense optional style of play.
I liked when Northwestern went back to their quick pace in the second half vs Michigan, but I think they have to slow it down vs Penn State. Penn State can be explosive and slowing down the game should reduce their explosiveness. However, if NU slows down the game they have to hit the glass. In a low possession game second chances count for a lot. NU was in the game vs Ohio State and Illinois because the game was slow AND they got second chances. Versus Michigan, NU gave away a ton of second looks to Michigan when playing slow and that was what got them in such a hole early.
I really do think NU has a shot in this game, but Penn State is at home and after suffering two losses really needs a win. Maybe NU is getting them while they’re vulnerable, but history doesn’t really make it look that way. NU hasn’t won at Penn State in almost ten years and while I hope the streak ends on Sunday, I don’t think that’s where the smart money goes. I predict: Penn State, 77 Northwestern, 67
I think the posters over at Wildcat Report who blindly praise Bill Carmody and would even find an excuse for him if he committed a major felony and the people who rip him for everything up to and including his choice of beverage are both wrong. Carmody is fine basketball coach, but honestly he isn’t going on the Mount Rushmore of hoops coaches anytime soon, however, his administration at NU isn’t exactly the basketball version of Ulysses S. Grant’s presidency either. Truth be told, if you want to use a presidential analogy, Carmody will probably be like Harry Truman. He might leave with more negative than positive feelings amongst his constituents (aka the NU fans), but history will prove he had a strong positive impact on the course of Wildcat Nation.
In regards to Sunday’s game, this is the type of situation which the Wildcat football team addresses with the moniker W.I.N at the top of their values pyramid. That stands for “What’s Important Now” and it stresses one’s lack of control over the past and the importance of focusing on what you can control in the present. Northwestern lost to Michigan. I now don’t really care if the cause was poor coaching, poor playing, poor officiating, or the rising national debt. What matters now is that Northwestern is about to play Penn State—a team they CAN beat. I don’t know if PSU is a team NU will beat, but the Lions aren’t exactly the 1976 Indiana Hoosiers either.
Whether or not Jeff Brooks plays (or plays well--he might still be hurt due to his shoulder) for PSU will be a factor. If Brooks plays PSU has three guys who are tall, very athletic, and call all run picks and rolls even better than Michigan’s Jordan Morgan. Brooks is also PSU’s best rebounder and NU’s been prone to allowing extra points on the glass. If Brooks doesn’t play, the front court duo of Andrew Jones and David Jackson is still good, but Brooks brings another dimension, especially on defense where he is an excellent shot blocker.
Penn State’s best player is Talor Battle. The do everything guard is one of a handful of Penn State players who has the ability to get hot from long range and carry his team to big wins. He did so vs Wisconsin earlier in the year and has done so vs NU in the best. Jackson is also a good shooter and since NU tends to make average at best guys look like All-Americans, I’d worry about jump shooting forward Billy Oliver. He could be the next Josh Gasser or Jordan Morgan vs NU’s defense optional style of play.
I liked when Northwestern went back to their quick pace in the second half vs Michigan, but I think they have to slow it down vs Penn State. Penn State can be explosive and slowing down the game should reduce their explosiveness. However, if NU slows down the game they have to hit the glass. In a low possession game second chances count for a lot. NU was in the game vs Ohio State and Illinois because the game was slow AND they got second chances. Versus Michigan, NU gave away a ton of second looks to Michigan when playing slow and that was what got them in such a hole early.
I really do think NU has a shot in this game, but Penn State is at home and after suffering two losses really needs a win. Maybe NU is getting them while they’re vulnerable, but history doesn’t really make it look that way. NU hasn’t won at Penn State in almost ten years and while I hope the streak ends on Sunday, I don’t think that’s where the smart money goes. I predict: Penn State, 77 Northwestern, 67
Sunday, February 28, 2010
Penn State’s Streak Over NU Continues With Dominating 79-60 Win
Disgusting, pathetic, embarrassing. I could go for several pages with descriptive adjectives for Northwestern’s play today, but we really don’t have that much time. To put it simply, Northwestern played their worst game on the season today and it might have been the worst game the Northwestern basketball program played since NU’s loss to Penn State in the 2006 Big Ten Tournament. I don’t know how Northwestern can beat teams like Illinois and Purdue and look like the JV playing the varsity when they play Penn State, but it happens every time. Now, I’ll admit I expected Penn State to win today, but I didn’t expect them to totally dominate the game like they did.
In the myriad of badness which occurred today, I guess Northwestern’s worst performance was on the defensive end of the court. Northwestern tried 1-3-1, matchup, and man-to-man (which was possibly the worst effort at this ever), but Penn State beat all of them. It was impressively bad just how awful Northwestern’s defensive effort was today. NU didn’t fight through screens, didn’t deny passing lanes, and didn’t hustle on switches. Drew Crawford has been rumored to be hurt, and all I can think is he better be. (Update: Crawford is in fact hurt and may not start vs Chicago State) If he’s not hurt, his effort today on defense might have been the worst defensive effort from a Division 1 player all year. He was unbelievably lazy and passive in fighting through screens and getting out on shooters. The play which best explained Crawford’s lack of defense was Chris Babb’s first three of the second half. NU had cut the lead to 11. When PSU came back on offense, Crawford was screened and barely tried to fight through it. As a result Babb got a wide open three and the lead went back to 14. Further evidence of Crawford’s poor defense is how often he has to foul. He got upset when he was called for a foul after an apparent block, but if he’d actually denied the passing lane he wouldn’t have had to try and block the shot. The ball wouldn’t have got to his man.
Of course, Crawford wasn’t the only Wildcat not to play defense. In fact, many of NU’s top players such as Jeremy Nash and Michael Thompson failed to make much effort on defense either. They let Penn State make easy passes from their guards to their big men all day. The defensive effort (if you call it that) NU put forth in the first half was the worst effort by a Big Ten team in conference game all year. The Wildcats allowed a Penn State team which scores 65ppg to score 49 points. Obviously, NU’s guards deserve blame for letting Penn State make easy passes inside, but NU’s big men didn’t do much in terms of fighting for inside position. It seemed that whenever Penn State caught the ball down low they were in great position to score.
What really upsets me about this contest, though, is NU once again looked like they didn’t care. It was like the first half of the Wisconsin game and all but the last 10 minutes of the Minnesota game. I don’t know what goes on in NU’s locker room, but it is amazing to me how often this team gives no effort. What was really embarrassing was it looked like Northwestern quit in the second half. That reflects poorly on Bill Carmody, though, to his credit I think he recognized this and that’s why Ivan Peljusic and Nick Fruendt saw so much time.
The other thing that reflects poorly on Carmody, or his assists, is this team has no idea how to play man-to-man defense. If a team has decoded NU’s zones, which Penn State, Northwestern can’t stop a team when playing man-to-man. Today they fell for every pump fake and routinely got beat to the hoop, even by players who seemed less athletic. This is probably more of an offseason topic, but I’m now convinced Bill Carmody needs to replace either Mitch Henderson or Ivan Vujic with an assistant coach who is an expert in man-to-man defense. Northwestern has improved a lot the last two years, but I think they need to learn to play man-to-man if they want to become a better than .500 team in Big Ten play. The reason for this isn’t just teams decoding the zones, it’s the fact NU plays with zero intensity about 75% of the time. I think if the team was forced to play man-to-man some more natural intensity would develop.
Finally, let me say that NU got 21 points from Thompson, but I would have liked to see both him and John Shurna (who scored just 9) not settle for so many threes. NU is better when they attack inside, but did not do so today. Hopefully, they will do so when they play Chicago State on Wednesday.
Before I go, I want to add that Chris Babb is the latest in a long line of players that would be All-Americans if they just got to play Northwestern.
In the myriad of badness which occurred today, I guess Northwestern’s worst performance was on the defensive end of the court. Northwestern tried 1-3-1, matchup, and man-to-man (which was possibly the worst effort at this ever), but Penn State beat all of them. It was impressively bad just how awful Northwestern’s defensive effort was today. NU didn’t fight through screens, didn’t deny passing lanes, and didn’t hustle on switches. Drew Crawford has been rumored to be hurt, and all I can think is he better be. (Update: Crawford is in fact hurt and may not start vs Chicago State) If he’s not hurt, his effort today on defense might have been the worst defensive effort from a Division 1 player all year. He was unbelievably lazy and passive in fighting through screens and getting out on shooters. The play which best explained Crawford’s lack of defense was Chris Babb’s first three of the second half. NU had cut the lead to 11. When PSU came back on offense, Crawford was screened and barely tried to fight through it. As a result Babb got a wide open three and the lead went back to 14. Further evidence of Crawford’s poor defense is how often he has to foul. He got upset when he was called for a foul after an apparent block, but if he’d actually denied the passing lane he wouldn’t have had to try and block the shot. The ball wouldn’t have got to his man.
Of course, Crawford wasn’t the only Wildcat not to play defense. In fact, many of NU’s top players such as Jeremy Nash and Michael Thompson failed to make much effort on defense either. They let Penn State make easy passes from their guards to their big men all day. The defensive effort (if you call it that) NU put forth in the first half was the worst effort by a Big Ten team in conference game all year. The Wildcats allowed a Penn State team which scores 65ppg to score 49 points. Obviously, NU’s guards deserve blame for letting Penn State make easy passes inside, but NU’s big men didn’t do much in terms of fighting for inside position. It seemed that whenever Penn State caught the ball down low they were in great position to score.
What really upsets me about this contest, though, is NU once again looked like they didn’t care. It was like the first half of the Wisconsin game and all but the last 10 minutes of the Minnesota game. I don’t know what goes on in NU’s locker room, but it is amazing to me how often this team gives no effort. What was really embarrassing was it looked like Northwestern quit in the second half. That reflects poorly on Bill Carmody, though, to his credit I think he recognized this and that’s why Ivan Peljusic and Nick Fruendt saw so much time.
The other thing that reflects poorly on Carmody, or his assists, is this team has no idea how to play man-to-man defense. If a team has decoded NU’s zones, which Penn State, Northwestern can’t stop a team when playing man-to-man. Today they fell for every pump fake and routinely got beat to the hoop, even by players who seemed less athletic. This is probably more of an offseason topic, but I’m now convinced Bill Carmody needs to replace either Mitch Henderson or Ivan Vujic with an assistant coach who is an expert in man-to-man defense. Northwestern has improved a lot the last two years, but I think they need to learn to play man-to-man if they want to become a better than .500 team in Big Ten play. The reason for this isn’t just teams decoding the zones, it’s the fact NU plays with zero intensity about 75% of the time. I think if the team was forced to play man-to-man some more natural intensity would develop.
Finally, let me say that NU got 21 points from Thompson, but I would have liked to see both him and John Shurna (who scored just 9) not settle for so many threes. NU is better when they attack inside, but did not do so today. Hopefully, they will do so when they play Chicago State on Wednesday.
Before I go, I want to add that Chris Babb is the latest in a long line of players that would be All-Americans if they just got to play Northwestern.
Saturday, February 27, 2010
Game 29: Northwestern @ Penn State
The Matchup: Northwestern (18-10) @ Penn State (10-17)
Location: Bryce Jordan Center (University Park, PA)
TV: Big Ten Network (11:00 AM CT Sunday February 28th, 2010)
Radio: WGN AM 720
Fun Fact: Northwestern will set a school record for wins with a victory.
About the Game
Everybody knows what happened last time these two teams met. Penn State finally got a conference win and Northwestern’s dream of making the NCAA Tournament ended. Since that meeting Northwestern lost a close game at Wisconsin and beat Iowa. Penn State beat Michigan and lost close game at home against Ohio State. I’d say those results show both teams have played better since their first meeting.
The key in this game will be how Northwestern defends Penn State. Penn State seems to have decoded the 1-3-1 zone as well as any team in the Big Ten, and NU is not always consistently aggressive when playing a matchup, especially against “weaker” opponents. Making things even tougher, Penn State has some very impressive athletes who could give NU trouble when the ‘Cats have to defend them one on one. Forwards David Jackson, Jeff Brooks, and Andrew Jones all played well when Penn State beat Northwestern in Evanston. The 6-7 Jackson was most impressive showing the ability to score inside and hit jump shots. It was his scoring, and not star Talor Battle’s, that in fact paved the way for the Penn State victory. If Northwestern is going to play a matchup, they must make sure whoever is guarding Jackson is capable of not only stopping him in the post, but also aware he needs to be guarded on the perimeter. Penn State scored getting the ball inside not just to Jackson, but Jones and Brooks as well. Basically, they threw the ball over the top of the 1-3-1 and NU couldn’t stop the 6-10 Jones or 6-8 Brooks with 5-10 Michael Thompson. If NU does play 1-3-1, they must do a much better jump pressuring passing lanes or once again Thompson will be caught in an unwinnable mismatch. Realistically, NU probably shouldn’t play the 1-3-1. The ‘Cats caught a semi-break last time because Talor Battle (19.1 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 4.0 apg) was suffering from flu-like symptoms and didn’t shoot well. If a totally healthy Battle gets open shots, which the 1-3-1 will allow, he’ll knock them down. Considering Penn State’s other guard, Chris Babb, did knock down shots against the 1-3-1, I think NU might be smart to avoid that defense.
NU used the matchup zone the entire game against Iowa. While Iowa did miss some open shots, NU did a better job not allowing easy looks inside. In addition, one could argue that those open misses occurred because the ‘Cats actually made Iowa work for shots and the Hawkeyes legs were tired so those open threes weren’t as easy to shoot as in Iowa City. Bottom line, NU’s matchup has been very successful this year when NU really commits to using it. For example, the matchup effectively neutralized Purdue. Of course, NU was also fired up to play Purdue and hustled during the whole game. They’ll need to do the same against Penn State because Penn State does have some talented players.
Prediction:
I’m not feeling too great about this game. I liked what I saw on Thursday, but I’m worried Penn State just knows how to beat NU’s defenses too well. To be honest, if I were Bill Carmody, I might scrap the matchup and the 1-3-1 against Penn State and try something else. Maybe true man-to-man or even a Box-and-1 on Battle. Why? Because Penn State has totally dominated NU over the years and I think it would be smart to get them out of the obvious comfort zone they have when facing the ‘Cats. My biggest worry, though, isn’t NU’s defense. It’s the fact that Penn State is at home, and they’ve become a good team. Penn State does have something of a home court advantage, even if it doesn’t always show. Not that their fans are great, but the trip from Chicago to State College is long and unpleasant and often times Northwestern plays like that on game day. Plus, Penn State has to feel some motivation about possibly getting out of the Big Ten basement and some confidence with their chance to do some going against a team they know they can beat. I hope I’m as wrong as last Sunday, but I fear a depressing result. Penn State, 62 Northwestern, 60
Location: Bryce Jordan Center (University Park, PA)
TV: Big Ten Network (11:00 AM CT Sunday February 28th, 2010)
Radio: WGN AM 720
Fun Fact: Northwestern will set a school record for wins with a victory.
About the Game
Everybody knows what happened last time these two teams met. Penn State finally got a conference win and Northwestern’s dream of making the NCAA Tournament ended. Since that meeting Northwestern lost a close game at Wisconsin and beat Iowa. Penn State beat Michigan and lost close game at home against Ohio State. I’d say those results show both teams have played better since their first meeting.
The key in this game will be how Northwestern defends Penn State. Penn State seems to have decoded the 1-3-1 zone as well as any team in the Big Ten, and NU is not always consistently aggressive when playing a matchup, especially against “weaker” opponents. Making things even tougher, Penn State has some very impressive athletes who could give NU trouble when the ‘Cats have to defend them one on one. Forwards David Jackson, Jeff Brooks, and Andrew Jones all played well when Penn State beat Northwestern in Evanston. The 6-7 Jackson was most impressive showing the ability to score inside and hit jump shots. It was his scoring, and not star Talor Battle’s, that in fact paved the way for the Penn State victory. If Northwestern is going to play a matchup, they must make sure whoever is guarding Jackson is capable of not only stopping him in the post, but also aware he needs to be guarded on the perimeter. Penn State scored getting the ball inside not just to Jackson, but Jones and Brooks as well. Basically, they threw the ball over the top of the 1-3-1 and NU couldn’t stop the 6-10 Jones or 6-8 Brooks with 5-10 Michael Thompson. If NU does play 1-3-1, they must do a much better jump pressuring passing lanes or once again Thompson will be caught in an unwinnable mismatch. Realistically, NU probably shouldn’t play the 1-3-1. The ‘Cats caught a semi-break last time because Talor Battle (19.1 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 4.0 apg) was suffering from flu-like symptoms and didn’t shoot well. If a totally healthy Battle gets open shots, which the 1-3-1 will allow, he’ll knock them down. Considering Penn State’s other guard, Chris Babb, did knock down shots against the 1-3-1, I think NU might be smart to avoid that defense.
NU used the matchup zone the entire game against Iowa. While Iowa did miss some open shots, NU did a better job not allowing easy looks inside. In addition, one could argue that those open misses occurred because the ‘Cats actually made Iowa work for shots and the Hawkeyes legs were tired so those open threes weren’t as easy to shoot as in Iowa City. Bottom line, NU’s matchup has been very successful this year when NU really commits to using it. For example, the matchup effectively neutralized Purdue. Of course, NU was also fired up to play Purdue and hustled during the whole game. They’ll need to do the same against Penn State because Penn State does have some talented players.
Prediction:
I’m not feeling too great about this game. I liked what I saw on Thursday, but I’m worried Penn State just knows how to beat NU’s defenses too well. To be honest, if I were Bill Carmody, I might scrap the matchup and the 1-3-1 against Penn State and try something else. Maybe true man-to-man or even a Box-and-1 on Battle. Why? Because Penn State has totally dominated NU over the years and I think it would be smart to get them out of the obvious comfort zone they have when facing the ‘Cats. My biggest worry, though, isn’t NU’s defense. It’s the fact that Penn State is at home, and they’ve become a good team. Penn State does have something of a home court advantage, even if it doesn’t always show. Not that their fans are great, but the trip from Chicago to State College is long and unpleasant and often times Northwestern plays like that on game day. Plus, Penn State has to feel some motivation about possibly getting out of the Big Ten basement and some confidence with their chance to do some going against a team they know they can beat. I hope I’m as wrong as last Sunday, but I fear a depressing result. Penn State, 62 Northwestern, 60
Wednesday, February 17, 2010
Missed Chances Result in Missed Opportunity for NU: Penn State Tops Wildcats 81-70
This loss is significantly worse for NU’s future than last week’s loss to Iowa. Playing at home with some momentum after an impressive overtime win against Minnesota, Northwestern dropped today’s game to Penn State 81-70. With the loss NU’s slim hopes of making the NCAA Tournament are dashed, other than winning the Big Ten Tournament. To be honest, I’m having doubts about NU making the NIT at this point. Other than the Chicago State game, I’m not sure I can predict any wins. If they do get into the NIT, NU will certainly be a 7-seed or an 8-seed in their region. At this point, I suggest all NU fans start reading up on the College Basketball Invitational and check if their cable providers offer HDNet (mine does, but I’d have to up my subscription package). To be honest, the CBI wouldn’t be a bad destination for NU. They’d likely be a high seed and last year’s champ was Oregon State with former NU coach Craig Robinson in charge, which gives Bill Carmody a resource to call on when planning for the tournament.
As to this week’s Wednesday night failure, Penn State played really well on offense using players other than Talor Battle. David Jackson scored 20 points and Chris Babb had 20 points and 6 assists to help Penn State’s offense flow. Honestly, though, I thought once again NU’s defense wasn’t very good. In the first half, Northwestern tried the 1-3-1, but they didn’t deny passing lanes and Penn State got the ball inside easily and got easy baskets. When NU played more matchup and switching man-to-man, but Penn State used a series of screens to always seem to keep NU’s defenders away from shooters. NU has a bad habit of getting lazy in both their regular defenses. In the 1-3-1, NU often doesn’t deny passing lanes or doesn’t step-up to counter drives. In man-to-man or matchup, NU reacts like they’ve never seen a screen before and has no idea how to get over the screen and contest a shot.
I think a lot of this actually goes back to my post before the Minnesota game. The fact is Northwestern is at times a team that doesn’t meet their opponents aggressiveness for 40 minutes. That’s fine against Michigan or Indiana because those teams have players who simply go through the motions. However, other teams don’t. Penn State brought it for 40 minutes tonight and NU didn’t respond.
Part of NU’s failure to respond was a multitude of missed chances. Despite getting easy baskets inside all night, NU settled for 29 threes tonight. Also, Luka Mirkovic missed 6 free throws and a key layup. Jeremy Nash took a three and missed when NU finally cut the lead to two points and following his missed shot, PSU went on an 8-0 (game deciding) run. I don’t really want to pick on Nash for taking the three because he was open, but I think he could have driven the ball or passed to get a better shooter a look as plenty of time remained on the shot clock.
John Shurna and Michael Thompson each will look like they had a good game with 17 points apiece, but they shot really poorly. Thompson was 3-of-8 from three and Shurna was 2-of-9. Combined with Nash’s 2-for-7 it is easy to see when NU lost. NU also got no significant production from Drew Crawford (who looked really lost on defense) and only 4 total bench points. Someone posted a comment on the NU message boards at wildcatreport.com recently indicating Crawford might be hurt. He didn’t look all that hurt in scoring 18 points Sunday, but today he played like a guy who either wasn’t able to get where he needed to be or didn’t know where he needed to be. Either way the result was the same.
NU now heads to Wisconsin on Sunday. It’ll be a tough task, but if NU felt any NCAA Tournament pressure that’s off. The pressure to try and get a bye in the first round of the Big Ten Tournament is also gone. Now NU is competing with Michigan and Minnesota for Big Ten Tournament seeding and still is trying to do enough to at least make the NIT or the CBI.
As to this week’s Wednesday night failure, Penn State played really well on offense using players other than Talor Battle. David Jackson scored 20 points and Chris Babb had 20 points and 6 assists to help Penn State’s offense flow. Honestly, though, I thought once again NU’s defense wasn’t very good. In the first half, Northwestern tried the 1-3-1, but they didn’t deny passing lanes and Penn State got the ball inside easily and got easy baskets. When NU played more matchup and switching man-to-man, but Penn State used a series of screens to always seem to keep NU’s defenders away from shooters. NU has a bad habit of getting lazy in both their regular defenses. In the 1-3-1, NU often doesn’t deny passing lanes or doesn’t step-up to counter drives. In man-to-man or matchup, NU reacts like they’ve never seen a screen before and has no idea how to get over the screen and contest a shot.
I think a lot of this actually goes back to my post before the Minnesota game. The fact is Northwestern is at times a team that doesn’t meet their opponents aggressiveness for 40 minutes. That’s fine against Michigan or Indiana because those teams have players who simply go through the motions. However, other teams don’t. Penn State brought it for 40 minutes tonight and NU didn’t respond.
Part of NU’s failure to respond was a multitude of missed chances. Despite getting easy baskets inside all night, NU settled for 29 threes tonight. Also, Luka Mirkovic missed 6 free throws and a key layup. Jeremy Nash took a three and missed when NU finally cut the lead to two points and following his missed shot, PSU went on an 8-0 (game deciding) run. I don’t really want to pick on Nash for taking the three because he was open, but I think he could have driven the ball or passed to get a better shooter a look as plenty of time remained on the shot clock.
John Shurna and Michael Thompson each will look like they had a good game with 17 points apiece, but they shot really poorly. Thompson was 3-of-8 from three and Shurna was 2-of-9. Combined with Nash’s 2-for-7 it is easy to see when NU lost. NU also got no significant production from Drew Crawford (who looked really lost on defense) and only 4 total bench points. Someone posted a comment on the NU message boards at wildcatreport.com recently indicating Crawford might be hurt. He didn’t look all that hurt in scoring 18 points Sunday, but today he played like a guy who either wasn’t able to get where he needed to be or didn’t know where he needed to be. Either way the result was the same.
NU now heads to Wisconsin on Sunday. It’ll be a tough task, but if NU felt any NCAA Tournament pressure that’s off. The pressure to try and get a bye in the first round of the Big Ten Tournament is also gone. Now NU is competing with Michigan and Minnesota for Big Ten Tournament seeding and still is trying to do enough to at least make the NIT or the CBI.
Tuesday, February 16, 2010
Game 26: Penn State @ Northwestern Wildcats
The Matchup: Penn State (8-16) @ Northwestern (17-8)
Location: Welsh-Ryan Arena (Evanston, IL)
TV: Big Ten Network (7:30 PM Wednesday February 17th, 2010)
Radio: WGN 720AM
Fun Fact: A win would tie Northwestern’s school record for wins with 18.
About the Game
Perhaps a small positive to Northwestern’s loss at Iowa a week ago is NU fans won’t go into Welsh-Ryan Arena fearing a loss to Penn State will be NU’s first bad loss. Now, don’t get me wrong, I have no doubt many fans will go into Welsh-Ryan fearing a bad loss, but at least in won’t be the first.
Realistically, though, those fears are the result of years of conditioning as NU fans more than an objective look at the facts. Yes, Penn State might be the best 0-12 team in Big Ten history, but they are 0-12. On the other hand, Northwestern is now 6-7 in league play and shook off the loss at Iowa on Sunday with an overtime win over Minnesota.
Most of what makes Penn State good, or at least better than their record shows, is point guard Talor Battle. Battle might be less than 6-feet tall, but he plays the same type of game as the 6-7 Evan Turner. In fact, if Battle and Turner were the same size, I think Battle might even be a better prospect thanks to his superior shooting stroke (36.2% 3PT). As it stands, though, Turner will be in the NBA next year and Battle will be trying to put together the magic he had at Penn State when joined by talents such as Stanley Pringle and Jamelle Cornley. Right now Battle is the only Penn State player who averages double figures (19.5ppg). Battle also leads the team in rebounds (5.3rpg) and assists (3.8 apg). When Battle makes passes he mostly throws to forward David Jackson or fellow guard Chris Babb. Babb’s emergence as a shooter (33.8% 3PT) early in the Big Ten season gave PSU fans hope of a second guard to take some pressure off of Battle, but Babb has been inconsistent. In PSU’s near upsets (such as at Wisconsin) Babb has played well, but his overall play hasn’t matched Battle’s level.
The 6-7 David Jackson is the only player besides Battle to start every game for PSU. His average of 9.2 ppg is second on the team and his 4.7 rpg is third. He is an athletic forward and when teamed with sidekick 6-10 Andrew Jones (4.9rpg) he can make things happen on the offensive glass. Jackson is also a good shooter making 37% of his threes and nearly 78% of his free throws. Jones isn’t a good shooter, but his bigger problem is fouls. Jones is talented, but spends a lot of time on the Penn State bench with foul trouble and that can destroy momentum. When Jones is on the bench, PSU often turns to big man Andrew Ott. A transfer from Villanova, Ott also has size at 6-10 240 lbs, but he isn’t the athlete that Jones, Jackson, or 6-8 junior Jeff Brooks is on the inside.
Prediction: Northwestern successfully used the 1-3-1 on Minnesota in the second half Sunday, a sight which was great to see for NU fans. If NU can get Battle to give up the ball, putting 1-3-1 pressure on Babb and freshman Tim Frazier might be a recipe for NU success. However, Penn State has in the past played well against the 1-3-1, though, the many players who did so were more experienced. Honestly, I’m a little worried about some of the athletic matchups Penn State can force on NU, but I do like the fact NU has a multi-talented offense and PSU is mostly just Battle. To be honest, with the way NU has played matchup zone in the past, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Bill Carmody even employ a Box and 1 defense against Battle. Whatever the defense, I think NU stops Penn State enough to win, but I do expect the game to be close. Northwestern, 72 Penn State, 67
Location: Welsh-Ryan Arena (Evanston, IL)
TV: Big Ten Network (7:30 PM Wednesday February 17th, 2010)
Radio: WGN 720AM
Fun Fact: A win would tie Northwestern’s school record for wins with 18.
About the Game
Perhaps a small positive to Northwestern’s loss at Iowa a week ago is NU fans won’t go into Welsh-Ryan Arena fearing a loss to Penn State will be NU’s first bad loss. Now, don’t get me wrong, I have no doubt many fans will go into Welsh-Ryan fearing a bad loss, but at least in won’t be the first.
Realistically, though, those fears are the result of years of conditioning as NU fans more than an objective look at the facts. Yes, Penn State might be the best 0-12 team in Big Ten history, but they are 0-12. On the other hand, Northwestern is now 6-7 in league play and shook off the loss at Iowa on Sunday with an overtime win over Minnesota.
Most of what makes Penn State good, or at least better than their record shows, is point guard Talor Battle. Battle might be less than 6-feet tall, but he plays the same type of game as the 6-7 Evan Turner. In fact, if Battle and Turner were the same size, I think Battle might even be a better prospect thanks to his superior shooting stroke (36.2% 3PT). As it stands, though, Turner will be in the NBA next year and Battle will be trying to put together the magic he had at Penn State when joined by talents such as Stanley Pringle and Jamelle Cornley. Right now Battle is the only Penn State player who averages double figures (19.5ppg). Battle also leads the team in rebounds (5.3rpg) and assists (3.8 apg). When Battle makes passes he mostly throws to forward David Jackson or fellow guard Chris Babb. Babb’s emergence as a shooter (33.8% 3PT) early in the Big Ten season gave PSU fans hope of a second guard to take some pressure off of Battle, but Babb has been inconsistent. In PSU’s near upsets (such as at Wisconsin) Babb has played well, but his overall play hasn’t matched Battle’s level.
The 6-7 David Jackson is the only player besides Battle to start every game for PSU. His average of 9.2 ppg is second on the team and his 4.7 rpg is third. He is an athletic forward and when teamed with sidekick 6-10 Andrew Jones (4.9rpg) he can make things happen on the offensive glass. Jackson is also a good shooter making 37% of his threes and nearly 78% of his free throws. Jones isn’t a good shooter, but his bigger problem is fouls. Jones is talented, but spends a lot of time on the Penn State bench with foul trouble and that can destroy momentum. When Jones is on the bench, PSU often turns to big man Andrew Ott. A transfer from Villanova, Ott also has size at 6-10 240 lbs, but he isn’t the athlete that Jones, Jackson, or 6-8 junior Jeff Brooks is on the inside.
Prediction: Northwestern successfully used the 1-3-1 on Minnesota in the second half Sunday, a sight which was great to see for NU fans. If NU can get Battle to give up the ball, putting 1-3-1 pressure on Babb and freshman Tim Frazier might be a recipe for NU success. However, Penn State has in the past played well against the 1-3-1, though, the many players who did so were more experienced. Honestly, I’m a little worried about some of the athletic matchups Penn State can force on NU, but I do like the fact NU has a multi-talented offense and PSU is mostly just Battle. To be honest, with the way NU has played matchup zone in the past, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Bill Carmody even employ a Box and 1 defense against Battle. Whatever the defense, I think NU stops Penn State enough to win, but I do expect the game to be close. Northwestern, 72 Penn State, 67
Thursday, March 5, 2009
Northwestern and the NCAA Bubble
It is probably too early to start making a case that Northwestern should be in the NCAA Tournament, but after last night’s win a discussion of just where on the NCAA bubble Northwestern sits is worth some analysis. According to baselinestats.com Northwestern’s RPI is now #69. That’s probably too high to make the NCAAs, but other bubble teams are right around the Wildcats. Penn State is #66 Providence is #68 and Notre Dame is #72. Of those teams, I think Penn State is almost assuredly in the Big Dance and Providence, much like NU, has a case for inclusion based on some very strong wins. With those facts in mind, let us look at the Wildcats NCAA resume in relation to both Penn State and Providence. I think many outside of Wildcat Nation would be surprised at the result.
What most obviously works against Northwestern is the head-to-head loss to Penn State. Unfortunately, despite a myriad of possible first round matchups in the Big Ten Tournament, Northwestern isn’t likely to get a second chance at Talor Battle and company. Also working against NU is that both Penn State and Providence have better overall records. PSU has 20 wins and Providence has 18. Northwestern only has 17 wins right now. While there isn’t a magic number of wins to make the Big Dance, if you don’t have at least 19 wins you can probably skip watching the CBS Selection Show and turn on ESPNU and wait for the NIT bracket.
Another item which works against NU is that Providence has a stronger strength of schedule 49 to 54. However, NU’s strength of schedule will improve this weekend after the Ohio State game. Also, Penn State’s strength of schedule isn’t even in the neighborhood of the Wildcats and Friars as it comes in at 93. Even more impressive for NU is that when looking at non-conference strength of schedule Northwestern is the best of these three teams. The Wildcats are at 66 in non-conference SOS compared to Providence at 97 and Penn State at a near the bottom of the Division 1 310. This is a key point. Like I said above, I think Penn State’s record probably gets them into the Dance if it starts today, but they got that record by feasting on a ton of early cupcakes. NU might not have faced the basketball equivalent of the ’27 Yankees, but at least the Wildcats took on challenges like Butler, Stanford, and a talented UC-Riverside squad. Northwestern also played a tougher ACC/Big Ten Challenge game, but I’ll give PSU a pass on that as the league office and ESPN decide that matchup.
Finally, we come to NU’s strongest case against their bubble brethren. Yes, the Wildcats gave away some games, but they also have more wins than Penn State or Providence against top 50 RPI teams. The Wildcats have 6 top 50 wins. Penn State has 5 and Providence 3. If Northwestern had just one more win against the top 50 (e.g. Butler, Illinois, Purdue) I think it would be very tough for the selection committee to keep them out. As it stands now, the Wildcats probably need at least two more good wins to make the NCAA tournament. That would give them at least 19 wins and an increase in RPI and SOS. Nevertheless, it is worth noting that even as things sit right now Northwestern stacks up well against potential bubble competition.
Also, though the ‘Cats have bigger dreams, it is important to remember this bubble competition is also the competition for top seeds in the NIT. Given this data, I would say if NU doesn’t make the Dance, they should now expect to be an upper division NIT seed. After last year’s struggles, NU must remember that any postseason appearance will be a great stepping stone for the ‘Cats. Of course, after last night I don’t think anybody would blame those of us in Wildcat Nation for getting a little greedy and pushing for the ‘Cats inclusion in the Big Dance whenever possible.
What most obviously works against Northwestern is the head-to-head loss to Penn State. Unfortunately, despite a myriad of possible first round matchups in the Big Ten Tournament, Northwestern isn’t likely to get a second chance at Talor Battle and company. Also working against NU is that both Penn State and Providence have better overall records. PSU has 20 wins and Providence has 18. Northwestern only has 17 wins right now. While there isn’t a magic number of wins to make the Big Dance, if you don’t have at least 19 wins you can probably skip watching the CBS Selection Show and turn on ESPNU and wait for the NIT bracket.
Another item which works against NU is that Providence has a stronger strength of schedule 49 to 54. However, NU’s strength of schedule will improve this weekend after the Ohio State game. Also, Penn State’s strength of schedule isn’t even in the neighborhood of the Wildcats and Friars as it comes in at 93. Even more impressive for NU is that when looking at non-conference strength of schedule Northwestern is the best of these three teams. The Wildcats are at 66 in non-conference SOS compared to Providence at 97 and Penn State at a near the bottom of the Division 1 310. This is a key point. Like I said above, I think Penn State’s record probably gets them into the Dance if it starts today, but they got that record by feasting on a ton of early cupcakes. NU might not have faced the basketball equivalent of the ’27 Yankees, but at least the Wildcats took on challenges like Butler, Stanford, and a talented UC-Riverside squad. Northwestern also played a tougher ACC/Big Ten Challenge game, but I’ll give PSU a pass on that as the league office and ESPN decide that matchup.
Finally, we come to NU’s strongest case against their bubble brethren. Yes, the Wildcats gave away some games, but they also have more wins than Penn State or Providence against top 50 RPI teams. The Wildcats have 6 top 50 wins. Penn State has 5 and Providence 3. If Northwestern had just one more win against the top 50 (e.g. Butler, Illinois, Purdue) I think it would be very tough for the selection committee to keep them out. As it stands now, the Wildcats probably need at least two more good wins to make the NCAA tournament. That would give them at least 19 wins and an increase in RPI and SOS. Nevertheless, it is worth noting that even as things sit right now Northwestern stacks up well against potential bubble competition.
Also, though the ‘Cats have bigger dreams, it is important to remember this bubble competition is also the competition for top seeds in the NIT. Given this data, I would say if NU doesn’t make the Dance, they should now expect to be an upper division NIT seed. After last year’s struggles, NU must remember that any postseason appearance will be a great stepping stone for the ‘Cats. Of course, after last night I don’t think anybody would blame those of us in Wildcat Nation for getting a little greedy and pushing for the ‘Cats inclusion in the Big Dance whenever possible.
Wednesday, December 31, 2008
Talor Battle (and Penn State) beat 'Cats 61-57
Talor Battle is the leading scorer in the Big Ten. He showed what makes him so good today when he scored 19 points in the second half to push Penn State past Northwestern. He also grabbed 12 rebounds and didn’t look tired at all in playing all 40 minutes. He was one of two Penn State players with double figures in rebounds (Andrew Jones with 10) and it was that rebounding which proved critical to Penn State’s victory. The Lions grabbed 46 rebounds, 19 offensive, compared to Northwestern’s 24 rebounds, 1 offensive. Many of those rebounds resulted in second and third shots which PSU converted. It was especially bad for Northwestern when those offensive rebounds ended up being kicked out to Battle or Stanley Pringle for an open three. This inability to rebound was a major problem for NU last year, but hadn’t been so far this season. Unfortunately, this game resembled last season much more than anything seen thus far this year. The second half especially as NU quit playing defense and went from allowing 21 first half points to 41 second half points. Not guarding Battle outside was obviously the most critical error, but the Wildcats failed to apply pressure to virtually every Penn State player in the game’s second twenty minutes. If NU had kept up their defensive pressure I think they would have won. NU also missed way too many threes. Kevin Coble, Jeff Ryan, John Shurna, and Jeremy Nash all had three point attempts which could have changed the game and they all missed. The ESPN guys gushed over Shurna, but the fact is he missed more shots than he made and his inability to convert a one-and-one in the last two minutes of the game killed NU late. John Shurna is a fine player, but he did not have a good game today. If NU wants to avoid repeating last season’s 1-17 Big Ten record they will need much better production for Shurna and fellow forward Kevin Coble.
This loss was similar to the loss to Butler in that NU had a large lead and then let that lead slip away. Unfortunately, unlike the loss at Butler, Northwestern doesn’t get any easy opponents to get well against. Instead, a collection of ranked opponents await the ‘Cats. First up is #15 Michigan State on Saturday. If NU doesn’t play a lot better it looks like a 0-7 start in the Big Ten is likely. That’s why this loss hurts so much. A winnable toss up game like this is the type of victory you must get if you want to claw above .500. As it stands now, NU is facing one of the toughest stretches of games any team in the nation will face all year and they’ll also likely have to battle a sulking mental state as I can’t imagine this loss will be easy to shake.
A Note on Fan Reaction
A quick a look at the Wildcatreport.com message boards shows that fan frustration is extremely high right now. I expect the “Fire Bill Carmody” folks to return in full force very soon. I have to say, though, Bill Carmody didn’t lose this game and Ed DeChellis sure as hell didn’t win it—except for one small item—he recruited Talor Battle and Carmody didn’t. Look, I love Northwestern and have supported every guy who’s wore purple and white since I started attending games as a child, but the reason NU will lose games like this one is the fact our players don’t matchup, especially, it seems, in the clutch. Talor Battle saw his team struggling and stepped up to win the game. Kevin Coble, John Shurna, and company had a chance to match him shot for shot, but they didn’t. Does that mean they never will? No. But Northwestern has failed in the clutch a lot recently. I look back at last year’s Big Ten Tournament game or the losses during the regular season to Iowa (twice) and Indiana. Some will say this is the coach’s fault. I have to admit I said so last year to anybody who would listen. Upon further review, though, I’m not sure if it’s appropriate to blame the coach if the players miss open shots—and NU misses a ton of them. If the shots are open, doesn’t that mean the coach’s system is working? I think it does. If NU is to win they need to make those shots. They need their better players like Coble, Shurna, Moore, etc. to toughen up and make open shots and free throws in the clutch. Until that happens NU isn’t going to win a lot of close games. We can complain about coaches or blame losses on officials, but the only people who can push NU to the next level and make these players get tougher in the clutch are those players themselves and that needs to happen soon or it will cost their coach his job.
This loss was similar to the loss to Butler in that NU had a large lead and then let that lead slip away. Unfortunately, unlike the loss at Butler, Northwestern doesn’t get any easy opponents to get well against. Instead, a collection of ranked opponents await the ‘Cats. First up is #15 Michigan State on Saturday. If NU doesn’t play a lot better it looks like a 0-7 start in the Big Ten is likely. That’s why this loss hurts so much. A winnable toss up game like this is the type of victory you must get if you want to claw above .500. As it stands now, NU is facing one of the toughest stretches of games any team in the nation will face all year and they’ll also likely have to battle a sulking mental state as I can’t imagine this loss will be easy to shake.
A Note on Fan Reaction
A quick a look at the Wildcatreport.com message boards shows that fan frustration is extremely high right now. I expect the “Fire Bill Carmody” folks to return in full force very soon. I have to say, though, Bill Carmody didn’t lose this game and Ed DeChellis sure as hell didn’t win it—except for one small item—he recruited Talor Battle and Carmody didn’t. Look, I love Northwestern and have supported every guy who’s wore purple and white since I started attending games as a child, but the reason NU will lose games like this one is the fact our players don’t matchup, especially, it seems, in the clutch. Talor Battle saw his team struggling and stepped up to win the game. Kevin Coble, John Shurna, and company had a chance to match him shot for shot, but they didn’t. Does that mean they never will? No. But Northwestern has failed in the clutch a lot recently. I look back at last year’s Big Ten Tournament game or the losses during the regular season to Iowa (twice) and Indiana. Some will say this is the coach’s fault. I have to admit I said so last year to anybody who would listen. Upon further review, though, I’m not sure if it’s appropriate to blame the coach if the players miss open shots—and NU misses a ton of them. If the shots are open, doesn’t that mean the coach’s system is working? I think it does. If NU is to win they need to make those shots. They need their better players like Coble, Shurna, Moore, etc. to toughen up and make open shots and free throws in the clutch. Until that happens NU isn’t going to win a lot of close games. We can complain about coaches or blame losses on officials, but the only people who can push NU to the next level and make these players get tougher in the clutch are those players themselves and that needs to happen soon or it will cost their coach his job.
Friday, December 26, 2008
Game 11: Northwestern @ Penn State (Big Ten Opener)
As of tomorrow morning, Welsh-Ryan Ramblings will be taking a break from Wildcat basketball to travel to San Antonio to focus on Wildcat football. As a result, the Penn State game preview is going up now in order to ensure it is posted well enough in advanced of the game to be meaningful. I don’t think posting a preview a few hours before the 11:00 AM start on the 31st would serve much purpose.
The Matchup: Northwestern (8-2) @ Penn State (11-2)
Location: The Bryce Jordan Center (State College, PA)
TV: ESPN2 (11:00 AM, December 31, 2008)
Radio: WGN 720 AM
Fun Fact: Playing Penn State hasn’t been fun for Northwestern in recent years. In fact, the ‘Cats haven’t won at PSU since 2002. Coincidently, the 2001-2002 team was the last NU squad to post a winning record. Come to think of it, I don’t think this is a coincidence.
About PSU
Penn State enters this game with an 11-2 record (8-1 at home). They were a team who improved drastically over the second half of the Big Ten season last year (7-11 record) and who has high hopes for 2009. Penn State has also been a major thorn in the side of the Wildcats over the last few years. To fully understand if Northwestern has any chance against Penn State it is important to understand what has made PSU successful against the ‘Cats. First, Penn State has in recent years possessed a gigantic rebounding edge. Players like Jamelle Cornley have had no peer on the Wildcat roster. This year that might be different as the Wildcats finally have front court size and rebounding skill in Kyle Rowley and John Shurna. The other major advantage PSU has used against Northwestern is their ability to play a zone defense which effectively spotted NU’s ability to backdoor cut. This was especially successful as Northwestern hasn’t shot well enough in any recent game to get PSU out of their zone. This advantage also might be negated this season as Northwestern features a starting lineup which contains four decent shooters and can bring a shooting center of the bench. This is Northwestern’s biggest positive in this year’s game.
Even if those advantages are negated, though, Penn State still has a very talented team led by Cornley and point guard Talor Battle. Cornley has been a huge problem for the Wildcats in the past and his numbers this year are particularly impressive. He averages 14.9 points per game and 6.8 rebounds per game. Those numbers aside, though, I believe it is Battle who will cause more problems for the ‘Cats this time around. NU has enough players performing well in the front court that they ought to at least match Cornley’s production. On the other hand, NU doesn’t have guards who can match Battle’s all around game. Not only does Battle average 18.7 points per game, but he also pulls down 5.7 rebounds per game and has dished out more than 70 assists. Those numbers exceed the production of NU’s Michael Thompson and Craig Moore in every category. The one advantage NU might have, though, is that despite his high rebound totals, Battle isn’t big. If any NU player other than Thompson blocks him out, Battle will be at a major size disadvantage.
NU’s other major problem could be the fact PSU shoots 40.3% from three point land and has a number of capable shooters. The best is guard Stanley Pringle who is at 53%, but guards Danny Morrissey and Cammeron Woodyard off the bench can also shot well, as can Battle and Cornley. NU has played more man-to-man defense this year than in the past and if Coach Carmody believes any of his young big man can matchup with Cornley down low it might be advisable to go man against PSU. If they do not, NU needs to work extra hard on getting hands in shooters faces out of their zone defense. This seems to have been a problem at Stanford.
Prediction: Penn State seems to have a lot of statistical and personnel advantages in this game, but I think most of the intangibles favor NU. The most significant intangible factor is the game being played at a time when Penn State will have no students around and very few fans in State College overall. I also believe that after their play at Stanford and Butler the Wildcats must know they have a lot to prove in regards to their ability to win on the road and compete consistently against better than average teams. Can they do so? I believe they can. I think NU’s young players will step up and the ‘Cats will pull of the upset. Northwestern, 56 Penn State, 50.
Bonus Pick: A lot of people doubt the chances of NU against PSU in hoops, but even more people doubt the chances of NU against Missouri in the Alamo Bowl. Last I saw, ESPN had 87.7% of the nation picking the Tigers. This reminds me of the only other dome game NU played this year. The 'Cats were given no chance to beat Minnesota on the road with Bacher and Sutton out. Yet, NU pulled off the win. I foresee a similar result on Monday night. Northwestern, 34 Missouri, 27.
The Matchup: Northwestern (8-2) @ Penn State (11-2)
Location: The Bryce Jordan Center (State College, PA)
TV: ESPN2 (11:00 AM, December 31, 2008)
Radio: WGN 720 AM
Fun Fact: Playing Penn State hasn’t been fun for Northwestern in recent years. In fact, the ‘Cats haven’t won at PSU since 2002. Coincidently, the 2001-2002 team was the last NU squad to post a winning record. Come to think of it, I don’t think this is a coincidence.
About PSU
Penn State enters this game with an 11-2 record (8-1 at home). They were a team who improved drastically over the second half of the Big Ten season last year (7-11 record) and who has high hopes for 2009. Penn State has also been a major thorn in the side of the Wildcats over the last few years. To fully understand if Northwestern has any chance against Penn State it is important to understand what has made PSU successful against the ‘Cats. First, Penn State has in recent years possessed a gigantic rebounding edge. Players like Jamelle Cornley have had no peer on the Wildcat roster. This year that might be different as the Wildcats finally have front court size and rebounding skill in Kyle Rowley and John Shurna. The other major advantage PSU has used against Northwestern is their ability to play a zone defense which effectively spotted NU’s ability to backdoor cut. This was especially successful as Northwestern hasn’t shot well enough in any recent game to get PSU out of their zone. This advantage also might be negated this season as Northwestern features a starting lineup which contains four decent shooters and can bring a shooting center of the bench. This is Northwestern’s biggest positive in this year’s game.
Even if those advantages are negated, though, Penn State still has a very talented team led by Cornley and point guard Talor Battle. Cornley has been a huge problem for the Wildcats in the past and his numbers this year are particularly impressive. He averages 14.9 points per game and 6.8 rebounds per game. Those numbers aside, though, I believe it is Battle who will cause more problems for the ‘Cats this time around. NU has enough players performing well in the front court that they ought to at least match Cornley’s production. On the other hand, NU doesn’t have guards who can match Battle’s all around game. Not only does Battle average 18.7 points per game, but he also pulls down 5.7 rebounds per game and has dished out more than 70 assists. Those numbers exceed the production of NU’s Michael Thompson and Craig Moore in every category. The one advantage NU might have, though, is that despite his high rebound totals, Battle isn’t big. If any NU player other than Thompson blocks him out, Battle will be at a major size disadvantage.
NU’s other major problem could be the fact PSU shoots 40.3% from three point land and has a number of capable shooters. The best is guard Stanley Pringle who is at 53%, but guards Danny Morrissey and Cammeron Woodyard off the bench can also shot well, as can Battle and Cornley. NU has played more man-to-man defense this year than in the past and if Coach Carmody believes any of his young big man can matchup with Cornley down low it might be advisable to go man against PSU. If they do not, NU needs to work extra hard on getting hands in shooters faces out of their zone defense. This seems to have been a problem at Stanford.
Prediction: Penn State seems to have a lot of statistical and personnel advantages in this game, but I think most of the intangibles favor NU. The most significant intangible factor is the game being played at a time when Penn State will have no students around and very few fans in State College overall. I also believe that after their play at Stanford and Butler the Wildcats must know they have a lot to prove in regards to their ability to win on the road and compete consistently against better than average teams. Can they do so? I believe they can. I think NU’s young players will step up and the ‘Cats will pull of the upset. Northwestern, 56 Penn State, 50.
Bonus Pick: A lot of people doubt the chances of NU against PSU in hoops, but even more people doubt the chances of NU against Missouri in the Alamo Bowl. Last I saw, ESPN had 87.7% of the nation picking the Tigers. This reminds me of the only other dome game NU played this year. The 'Cats were given no chance to beat Minnesota on the road with Bacher and Sutton out. Yet, NU pulled off the win. I foresee a similar result on Monday night. Northwestern, 34 Missouri, 27.
Thursday, December 25, 2008
Happy Holidays from Welsh-Ryan Ramblings
Welsh-Ryan Ramblings would like to wish all our readers and contributors happy holidays. Look for our Penn State preview in the next two days as we’ll be departing for Texas and the Alamo Bowl this weekend.
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