Northwestern is Back in Action Versus Texas Southern

I fully intended to post more thoughts between the end of the Baylor game and now, but I just never found the time. I was, as we all were, upset with the way the ‘Cats played versus Baylor, but I haven’t given up hope for the NCAA Tournament just yet. Still, I do think NU needs to improve from where they are now if they want to make the Big Dance. Especially as the rest of Big Ten looks strong with the possible exception of Penn State and Iowa.

1-6 Texas Southern shouldn’t present much of a challenge to NU and that’s probably a good thing after the loss to Baylor. The Tigers are a team that lost 62-46 to Denver in their last game so they clearly are not an offensive powerhouse. In fact, they’re pretty much the antithesis of that. They rank second to last in the NCAA in points per-game as a team with only 50.9 on average. Omar Strong is their leading scorer with 13 points per which does mean he averages more points per-game than anyone on the roster of the Stony Brook team NU almost lost to earlier this season, but I’m not worried about the Wildcats in this contest.

NU will be without guard Tre Demps who elected to have his season ending surgery and redshirt this year. He’ll most likely join fellow freshman Mike Turner as a guy who will watch all this season and then have the opportunity to step into a larger role next season. I think this is the right move as Demps was never 100% and guards Reggie Hearn and Dave Sobolewski have handled things just fine as NU’s starting backcourt. The concussion injury to JerShon Cobb has been an issue for NU, but he should return to action in the future much closer to 100% than Demps would ever have been this year. Hopefully, we’ll see Cobb on the court if not tomorrow at least at some point over this weekend stretch of three games in four days.

It really is important for NU to get off on the right foot in this game and get their confidence back. The effort against Baylor was so poor that even those who have been so beaten down by watching Northwestern basketball over the years had to leave Welsh-Ryan feeling like they’d been somehow wronged by the cosmos. Personally, I think my mistake was I confused my understanding of the concept of change. I’ve waited for years to be able to see NU get a big upset win and then say, “That’s it! That’s the win that’ll change what Northwestern basketball is.” It’s a nice dream and I’d convinced myself the Baylor game would see that dream given form. The problem is that in fact change isn’t an event it is actually a process. What we all need to believe as NU fans is that the process of change for Northwestern basketball is ongoing. It’s hard to believe when watching a game like NU played versus Baylor that such an event could in anyway be part of that process, but in fact it can be. In the end that process has to take Northwestern to the NCAA Tournament sometime in the future (preferably before my death). Will that happen this season? Honestly, I have no idea and beating on Texas Southern isn’t in anyway going to answer that question. Nonetheless, winning big ought to feel pretty good. I predict: Northwestern, 88 Texas Southern, 47

Wildcats Follow Ideal Script vs Mississippi Valley State

This game couldn’t have gone better for Northwestern. Not only did the Wildcats post an easy victory, they managed to rest all the key players with former walk-on Reggie Hearn being the only starter to play more than 20 minutes and they still scored 92 points thanks to some production from the bench. Perhaps the only depressing result to this game is that John Shurna only scored 9 points which will lower his scoring average, but he hit three of four three pointers on the way to helping the ‘Cats make a total of 20 three point field goals.

Four of those 20 three point field goals came from Nick Fruendt who saw his first extended action of the year. Fruendt has the ability to make shots and actually led NU with 21 points tonight. Obviously the feeling in the Wildcat coaching staff is that his defense isn’t up to par for most games, but his ability to hit shots makes me wonder if he can still find a role before the end of the year.

Freshman point guard Tre Demps also saw a lot of action tonight and scored eight points. He also dished out four assists and when combined with Dave Sobolewski the Wildcats two freshman guards combined for 8 assists and 1 turnover. NU did a great job with handling the ball tonight. The starters combined with 14 assists and only four turnovers. Overall, I know that this wasn’t a great opponent, but I thought NU’s effort was solid.

The guy who always puts in great effort, Reggie Hearn, led NU with seven rebounds and continued to show a nice shooting touch with three of five three pointers. He finished with 15 points and played his usual solid defense.

I also think it’s important to note that Luka Mirkovic played his second consecutive solid game. He went 5-of-5 from the field dished out three assists. Hopefully his confidence is high going into Sunday. Another guy who should have good confidence going into Sunday is Drew Crawford. Crawford looked great shooting ball today making 4-of-5 three pointers and scoring 14 points. He also grabbed 5 rebounds and had two steals.

Bottom line, this game was the game it was supposed to be. Now, Northwestern gets ready to play #7 Baylor on Sunday. The Wildcats will go into that game unbeaten and with a chance to make a huge statement to both the Big Ten and the entire college basketball world.

Wildcats Look to Avoid Trap Versus Mississippi Valley State

Based on every objective measure (and probably most subjective ones) 6-0 Northwestern is much better than 1-6 Mississippi Valley State and will most likely win this game easily. However, I can’t help but be a little worried. I remember a 47-45 loss to Mississippi Valley State in 2003 that was one of the games that cost Northwestern an NIT bid that season and I know that every person involved with Northwestern basketball (whether they admit it or not) has Sunday’s massively important game versus Baylor in the back of their minds. Therefore, this is a trap game and one that Northwestern needs to stay focused in on or a disaster could occur.

As noted above, Mississippi Valley State isn’t great record wise, but they have played some good teams. They’ve faced Notre Dame, DePaul, North Carolina, and South Carolina already this season. While only the South Carolina game was really close (a 61-57 S.C. win) only the North Carolina game saw Mississippi Valley State get totally blown off the court. What does that mean? To me it means that Northwestern has to be ready for some of the better players in the Mississippi Valley State lineup and has to maintain their defensive intensity in this contest.

Defense to me is the key. Mississippi Valley State hasn’t played much of it this season as they allow on average more than 82 points per game and let their opponents make 40% of their three point shots. That’s really bad defense and with NU’s multiple talents on offense the Wildcats should be excited to play this game because it could be one where everybody gets into the scorebook.

On offense, Mississippi Valley State is average. They scored 90 points in their lone win (but that was an OT game) and for the year score about 65 points per game. Their best player is Terrence Joyner who averages about 11 points per game and joins Brent Arrington as solid three point shooters. Still, if Northwestern maintains the defensive intensity they have in their previous games then it is realistic to believe that the ‘Cats should win this game fairly easily.

Given the magnitude of Sunday’s contest, it would be ideal if NU got some rest for the frontline players and gave Nick Fruendt and Tre Demps a little action off the bench. Will that happen? I’m exactly sure. I’m hoping so, but I also know that Bill Carmody knows this game is one which he needs to put extra emphasis on to make sure his players don’t lose focus and start to look too far forward. With Mississippi Valley State’s defensive issues, I don’t think that’ll be a problem. I predict: Northwestern, 88 Mississippi Valley State, 63

Northwestern Ready to Host Stony Brook in Post-Thanksgiving Game

If you’re looking to take a break from post-Thanksgiving shopping tomorrow you might want to stop by Welsh-Ryan Arena at noon to see Northwestern take on Stony Brook. Now, you first reaction might be to assume that this game wouldn’t be all that entertaining, but the fact is Stony Brook is a respectable team that could give Northwestern a challenge. Of course, Northwestern should win the game, but the Sea Wolves played close with Indiana for a half and are projected as an NCAA Tournament team. Therefore, a win over Stony Brook would give NU wins over three potential NCAA teams in their first five games. Hopefully, that fact makes the ‘Cats focus as this could be a trap game with the ACC/Big Ten Challenge against Georgia Tech coming up on Tuesday.

Stony Brook is one of the most balanced offensive teams I’ve ever seen. They manage to score more than 70 points per game, but don’t have a single player who averages double figures. Instead, they have seven players, including Chicago’s Al Rapier, who average more than 6.5 points per game. Looking at those numbers it becomes hard to decide who to focus the defense on. Hopefully, NU can play man-to-man and work on that defense.

Stony Brook has some good shooters in Anthony Jackson, Bryan Dougher, and Ron Bracey. I’d think that given that fact the 1-3-1 won’t be a defense NU plays much in this contest. The only possible reason to consider the 1-3-1 might be because Stony Brook isn’t the greatest ball-handling team ever. Guard/Forward Tommy Brenton has a 16-to-6 assist to turnover ratio, but most of the rest of the Sea Wolves are turnover prone.

I’m hopeful that this game will present Northwestern the chance to use some of the bench a bit more. If Nick Fruendt and Tre Demps are going to play any sort of a role for this team they need to get some action on the court before the Big Ten starts. This could be a chance to do so. Also, given that Tuesday will be another road trip and the ‘Cats still aren’t 100% healthy I’d like to see if some of the ‘Cats who aren’t feeling their best don’t have to play 30+ minutes. That might limit the scoring a bit, but I’ve still got a fairly easy Wildcat win. I predict: Northwestern, 77 Stony Brook, 54

Wildcats and Tigers Battle for Early Season Momentum In Charleston

Northwestern has some more significant non-conference games this year than in years past. As a result, building some early momentum could be key for the Wildcats. They’ll get a chance to start to do that in the three games in four days Charleston Classic which tips off Thursday. In the first game for NU the ‘Cats will battle LSU. LSU comes into the contest with a 1-1 record desperately seeking some positive momentum of their own after losing to Costal Carolina in their last contest. LSU coach Trent Johnson, who knows NU from his days at Stanford, specifically called out his team’s inability to rebound as Costal Carolina outrebounded the Tigers by 19. With NU’s own rebounding issues versus UTPA one starts to wonder if anybody plans on grabbing the ball when it goes off the rim in this game. Theoretically, 7-0 260-pound LSU center Justin Hamilton should be the main man on the glass as he pulled down 7 boards to go along with 9 points versus Costal Carolina. He should give Luka Mirkovic and Davide Curletti a more Big Ten-like challenge than the players from UTPA did. Also in the LSU front court is forward Strom Warren who played a nice game against Costal Carolina with 14 points and 9 rebounds of his own. NU needs to be able to keep both Hamilton and Warren from getting easy inside looks.

LSU also didn’t shoot very well against Costal Carolina, but NU needs to make sure they’re ready to defend a number of talented LSU scorers. Guard Ralston Turner led LSU with 15 points vs Costal and made two three pointers as well. Several other LSU outside shooting threats, including highly-touted freshman Johnny O’Bryant, had poor games but came fill the scorebook. NU needs to play with the same level of defensive intensity they brought at the end of last season and that Reggie Hearn showed in the opener on Sunday.

That brings up the question of whether Hearn will start and just what NU’s lineup will be come Thursday afternoon. JerShon Cobb is reportedly ready to play, but he may or may not get that start. I think Cobb’s an important player for Northwestern, but if he’s not 100 percent I don’t know that he has to start with options such as Hearn and freshmen Dave Sobolewski and Tre Demps available to Coach Bill Carmody.

Obviously, the two freshmen were somewhat underwhelming in their first official action, but they were good in the exhibition. Also, look for Alex Marcotullio and Drew Crawford to get back into the starting lineup and see significant action if the game is close. I’d really like to see Crawford assert himself on offense and have Marcotulllio take the led as he did last season in getting NU’s entire team to play hard on defense.

I’ll also pay close attention to John Shurna who more or less looked like he was just going through the motions against UTPA. Now, Shurna’s going to face tougher challenges on both offense and defense, but he’s still going to be the best player on the court. He, like Crawford, needs to get assertive and demand the ball because when he does the ball usually goes through the hoop.

Overall, I actually like NU’s matchup with LSU and think it gives the ‘Cats a good shot to start this tournament well. I see a close game, but I think Shurna will help edge the Tigers. I predict: Northwestern, 71 LSU, 65

Wildcats Notch Easier Win Over UTPA

For the first time in three seasons the game between Northwestern and Texas-Pan America didn’t come down the final few minutes as NU posted a 60-36 victory. Combined with Northwestern beating Robert Morris by 30 more points than they did a year ago I hope that means this Northwestern team is better than last year’s Northwestern team. I’m not sure if that’s the case yet, but I did see some good things along with some areas that need work.

To start though I have to say that one of the strangest things was to watch this game without Juice Thompson playing point guard for Northwestern. When you consider Thompson played virtually every meaningful minute of basketball for the past four years it makes sense that not saying Juice running the show was rather odd. Other guys have been four year starters, but none were on the court from day one as much as Juice.

Without Juice Northwestern gave the point guard reins over to a combination of players. Freshman Dave Sobolewski got the majority of the time and did a nice job. He handled the team well and usually got NU into the offense without a lot of trouble. He also posted a 3 assist and 0 turnover line which was great to see from a freshman. I was also glad to see him finally hit a three pointer late in the game because it should at least give him some confidence. However, he didn’t have Juice’s ability to take the ball with the shot clock running down and make something happen. To be honest, I’m not sure who on NU’s squad has that ability. The best candidate is JerShon Cobb, but his health remains a question mark at this point.

One player who very few questions remain about is John Shurna. Shurna played enough to make a mark on the game, but Coach Bill Carmody did a nice job of getting him out of the game with the lead and letting some other guys play. Shurna scored 15 points and grabbed five rebounds. He also notched two steals. NU’s three point shooting wasn’t great in this contest, but Shurna who might be NU’s best shooter didn’t really seem to look to shoot the three all the much. I expect to see him look for shots more when the ‘Cats travel to the Charleston Classic.

NU also got a decent game from Luka Mirkovic (though I’d like to see him shoot better from the line and from three) who asserted himself early as the tallest player on the floor. He posted 12 points and five rebounds for the day. Granted the competition gets a lot tougher, but those numbers from Luka would be solid and probably help NU to a number of victories. Especially if NU gets anything out of Luka’s tag-team partner at center Davide Curletti. Tonight, though, Curletti really struggled and was basically a non-factor.

Two players that were factors were Reggie Hearn and Drew Crawford. Crawford came off the bench to post 11 points and grab six rebounds. He also almost brought the house down with an attempted tomahawk slam. If he could have finished that play it probably would have been the best dunk in NU history. Hearn was all over the place with 7 points, 5 rebounds, 4 assists, 3 steals, and a block. I was really impressed with the quick release he showed when shooting from three point range. A case could be made that Hearn’s effort on defense and all around game dictates keeping him in the starting lineup. It might not be a bad idea either as Alex Marcotullio has shown nice ability to bring energy off the bench. I’d look potentially for a Sobolewksi, Crawford, Hearn, Shurna, Mirkovic lineup in the future.

The biggest issue NU had was that they did get out rebounded 35-32, but some of those were long rebounds that just happened to bounce the Broncs way. Basically the same NU team (minus Juice who wasn’t a rebounder) NU competed on the boards with Ohio State in the Big Ten Tournament last year so the potential exists. The other issue NU faces is neither NU nor UTPA shot well. Some of UTPA’s issues were NU”s nice man-to-man defense, but NU better hit more shots if they want to compete in their upcoming games. I’d especially look at Sobolewski and Demps who want 1-of-9 combined from three. Juice on percentage would have made about four of those and they have to do the same. I’d also like to see Marcotullio and Crawford get going from the outside, but ankle issues impact the ability to get lift on a shot so let’s just hope they’re in the process of healing.

Overall, NU won and that’s good, but we’ll get a better sense of where this team is over the next week of games.

‘Cats Ready to Tip-Off Regular Season Versus Texas-Pan America

Northwestern officially opens the 2011-12 season on Sunday versus Texas-Pan America. The game is on the Big Ten Network at 6PM CT and seats remain inside Welsh-Ryan Arena for those who are thinking about attending. Of note is the fact that Northwestern could potentially play their first four games of the season on national TV. The first two will be on for sure with ESPNU telecasting Thursday’s showdown with LSU at 2PM CT. This is a huge step for a program which at times has been pretty much an afterthought (if a thought at all) when it comes to the media. Obviously, some of this media attention is the result of the national attention which has been on the ‘Cats the last three years as they’ve come close to making their first NCAA Tournament. When you consider the role this year’s seniors have played in turning program into a competitive force in the Big Ten you can’t help but hope they’ll be the group to breakthrough in March.

As far as this game goes, UTPA was a 6-win team last year and dropped a 91-72 game to DePaul on Friday night. Some people aren’t happy with NU playing UTPA because they refer to the game as an RPI killer, it’s true UTPA isn’t going to be a top-100 squad in March, but NU does get a great advantage from playing UTPA. The advantage? It’s a team NU plays every year. Why is that important? Because UTPA won’t be as clueless as to what NU’s Princeton Offense entails and NU will actually have to work to get good shots. That’s important because I think some of the success NU has had in non-conference, including the 10-1 and #25 national ranking start of two years ago, has been because they’ve played teams that weren’t used to seeing the Princeton Offense. Well, the Big Ten has all seen the Princeton Offense so playing other teams that have also at least makes NU not get so many cheap baskets because defenders are essentially running into each other trying to defend backdoor cuts.

For NU, it looks like JerShon Cobb and Alex Marcotullio might not see the court as they’re still hurt. Drew Crawford isn’t listed as a starter, but was reported to be closer to 100% than the other two. Even if all three sit, NU should score points, though, UTPA’s knowledge of NU’s system has kept this game close the last two years. UTPA guard Brandon Provost scored 16 points and grabbed 8 rebounds against DePaul on Friday. He didn’t miss a three in the game as well. He’ll be an interesting matchup for NU’s freshman guards Dave Sobolewski and Tre Demps who will be in their first official college basketball game. With Marcotullio (who many expected to be a team leader) out, those two will need to step up. Another UTPA guard Jared Maree is also a capable outside shooter who the ‘Cats can’t lose sight of. Reggie Hearn played good defense against Robert Morris in NU’s exhibition win and may be a key factor in helping stop opponents’ top shooters this year. Hearn may be a former walk-on, but he’s a big guard with good length and decent athletic skill. Plus, he seems to have the level of “want to” which all great defenders have.

UTPA’s starting front court of Earl Jefferson and Josh Cleveland posted a total of 14 points and 6 rebounds versus DePaul. In addition, 6-7 sub Ruben Cabrera scored 12 points and grabbed 5 rebounds. These players don’t have the size of Big Ten front court players, but they’ll play hard. They might not offer a great simulation for 7-0 260-pound LSU center Justin Hamilton who NU will face Thursday, but I don’t they’ll be pushovers either and I’ll be looking to see how Luka Mirkovic and Davide Curletti respond to the challenge.

Looking at the overall matchup, NU’s missing starters might limit the game’s scoring a bit as all three of those guys can put the ball in the basket. However, NU’s still got more fire power than UTPA. I predict: Northwestern, 92 UTPA, 70

Wildcats Learn Something about Depth in Exhibition Win

My theme all off-season was on the importance of NU developing depth to compete in the rugged Big Ten. Tonight’s 99-47 exhibition win over Robert Morris probably doesn’t reveal a lot about Northwestern, but it does show the ‘Cats might have some quality depth on their bench which certainly didn’t exist the last several seasons.

Thanks to ankle injuries to Drew Crawford and Alex Marcotullio and JerShon Cobb still slowed from his hip-injury, NU went pretty young and inexperienced in the starting lineup. Tre Demps and Dave Sobolewksi got the call at the guards and Reggie Hearn saw his first serious action as a starter at small forward. All three looked very good. I know it was action against an NAIA school, but Robert Morris is a very good NAIA school. An NAIA school that was good enough to beat a solid NU team a few years back. I liked how all three hung in with the level of athleticism that RMU but on the court and seemed to play with control for the most part. Demps may have fired up a few ill-advised shots, but I think he’s a good enough player that some of those are going to go in from time to time. Plus, Demps, who I thought was more of the pure-scorer of the two freshmen guards, showed a nice three point shot making 3-of-4. He also dished out 3 assists to only 1 turnover. Sobolewski, who I thought was the more of the pure-shooter, didn’t disappoint as a shooter as he made both his three point shots and looked solid from the free-throw line sinking 7-of-9 charity strip shots. He also had 2 assists to 0 turnovers. Hearn got in on the action from three making 1-of-2 and in passing handing out 4 assists to 1 turnover. I also just felt like he showed great understanding of the offense. He seemed to find himself in position to make or pass to teammates for easy shots. I don’t know if we’ll see much Reggie Hearn in regular season games, but I think he’s clearly a valuable player to have on the team.

Nick Fruendt came off the bench in NU’s guard/small forward rotation and led the ‘Cats in scoring with 17 points. Fruendt is a good shooter and he showed it by going 4-for-4 from the field and 7-of-8 from the line. With that type of offensive ability you’d expect to see Fruendt finally become a consistent contributor, but I think it’ll be his defensive progress which we’ll have to keep an eye on to see if he can crack double-digit minutes when the Big Ten season starts.

The NU front court starters were mainstays John Shurna and Luka Mirkovic. Shurna looked solid in his 19 minutes and finished with 12 points. Luka only played 17 minutes, but he grabbed 5 rebounds, dished out 5 assists (a huge asset in a Princeton-style center) and hit a three. He’s a decent three point shooter and I think the center position needs to make at least 3 threes a game against NU’s tougher opponents for the ‘Cats to have the best chance to pull out W’s in those contests.

Off the bench in the front court I was really pleased with Davide Curletti who scored 16 points, notched 6 rebounds, and 4 assists. His only real failing was only hitting 3-of-6 free throws. I really like Davide’s shot and I think he shot make a much higher percentage. I’ve also got to give a big thumbs up to freshman Mike Turner who I think is a legit Big Ten athlete. He might need some work on his basketball skills, but I liked how he hit the glass (8 rebounds) and just his overall hustle approach. Will he play much this season? Maybe not. Still, he’s got a future that I see as pretty bright. Walk-on James Montgomery III seemed similar as well as he blocked 2 shots, scored 2 points, and had 2 assists. He looks quick as well and might take a Hearn like route to being a contributor someday.

Overall, every Wildcat who played looked as if they could play. Even with competition that wasn’t Big Ten caliber that’s saying something when compared with past NU teams. The ‘Cats start regular season play on Sunday. The big question is how healthy are Cobb, Marcotullio, and Crawford, but seeing the talent on the court with those guys out, I’m confident that ‘Cats have enough depth they’ll be able to compete in the Big Ten this season once their roster returns to full strength. As it stands, they should be able to compete with Texas-Pan American on Sunday as they are, but we’d like to see the full crew ready for LSU in a week and a half.

Tip Off Monday…What to Watch?

Northwestern play an exhibition game on Monday night against Robert Morris University. It’s exciting as it is the first time this year’s team will play in front of the public, but I don’t expect this game will reveal too much about the team as a whole. The starting lineup listed on nusports.com lists freshmen Tre Demps and Dave Sobolewski as well as junior walk-on Reggie Hearn as starters. Part of the reason for this might be the fact that JerShon Cobb still isn’t 100% recovered from his off-season hip surgery, but a bigger factor is likely that Coach Carmody is using this game to see just what he has on his bench (even if those players start this contest). I suppose to an extent that’s exciting as well. After all, I really believe Northwestern has to have depth to win in the Big Ten. Therefore, I’ll certainly be curious to see how those three potential key reserves play tomorrow against a team that is #3 in the NAIA rankings.

Aside from checking out the potential bench players, I think it’ll also be interesting to watch how much Luka Mirkovic has improved. Reports have Luka losing about 15 pounds, improving his shooting, and developing more post moves. All those things would be huge because the best Princeton Offense teams that Princeton ever had were highlighted by having centers who played key roles on offense. If Luka steps up his offensive game that’ll be big for the ‘Cats.

I know most fans will pay close attention to who handles the ball for the ‘Cats. I agree that’s important. It seems to me that if Demps and Sobolewski are starting that Carmody wants to take a look at them as ball handlers for sure. Does that mean one of them will be the guy who takes over for Juice Thompson? Maybe, but I still think a 100% JerShon Cobb and Alex Marcotullio are both capable ball handlers as well.

Another key factor that will impact Northwestern’s success not just Monday, but overall is defense. NU might not use everything that they have in the playbook on Monday and that’s fine. Personally, I’d like to see the team work on playing man-to-man. Robert Morris will bring several athletic players into Welsh-Ryan Arena and having to defend them man-to-man will be good work for NU. If NU does play the 1-3-1 zone, it’ll be interesting to see who plays in what spot with Juice departed.

Overall, it’ll be fun for the ‘Cats to be back in action, but I’m much more excited to see official action start a week from today. This contest will be a great chance for some of the young players to show off their skill, but I don’t think all our questions will be answered till we see games that count. After all, the best Northwestern team I’ve seen was the 2008-09 team that was basically eight minutes of basketball (four vs Illinois and four at Ohio State) from being in the NCAA Tournament and they lost an exhibition contest to Robert Morris. Still, the season is on and we have to be happy about that.

Does Northwestern Have Depth?

I know there are exceptions to any rule and some experts would disagree with me, but I believe the teams which compete consistently over the long-haul of the Big Ten season are the teams which have some depth on the bench. As I had this thought today, I started to wonder if Northwestern had much depth. Last year the ‘Cats displayed signs of having a good bench as they nearly upset Ohio State without John Shurna and got some solid Big Ten Tournament contributions from Nick Fruendt when JerShon Cobb was out of action. Does that apparent depth translate into 2011-12?

The good news is that NU seems to have five fairly clear starters. Shurna, Luka Mirkovic, Drew Crawford, Cobb, and Alex Marcotullio seem like the logical starting five. At some point Cobb or Marcotullio might end up getting flipped into the sixth man role to bring energy off the bench, but that’s a good sign because it would be an indicator that somebody on NU’s bench stepped up at the guard spot.

Guard is my biggest worry when it comes to depth for NU. After Alex and Drew the ‘Cats are basically looking at freshmen Tre Demps and David Sobolewski both of who suffered injuries within the last calendar year. Are they really going to be ready for the physical grind of college basketball? They better be or else Nick Fruendt is going to get a lot more minutes than he did last year. Could Fruendt handle that responsibility? It’s really hard to say. Based on his BTT play I’d like to say yes. He’d certainly have to be a player that teams needed to account for when the ‘Cats were on offense because he has a confident shot that I think he’ll make a high percentage of if he gets the chance to unload. The bigger issue would be defense and rebounding. Northwestern started a mini-defensive turnaround late last year by playing more man-to-man, but Fruendt’s reputation isn’t great on the defensive end. Could he handle play man or would the ‘Cats be forced back into the 1-3-1 zone if Fruendt were on the court more? In that scenario the good news is Fruendt does offer some size.

Northwestern has a somewhat deeper front court in the sense that both Luka Mirkovic and Davide Curletti have played a lot of minutes at the center position. Curletti also offers enough versatility that he could backup John Shurna at power forward, but I personally don’t really want Shurna on the bench unless it’s a 20-point game one way of another (Note: he should be on the bench if it’s a 20-point game one way or another as last year proved). Drew Crawford arguably doesn’t have a clear cut backup, but in the rotation Coach Carmody uses I think Marcotullio, Cobb, Fruendt, or one of the freshman could get some action. Northwestern’s small forward spot might as well be a third guard position so it wouldn’t really be a concern to see one of those players there. Once again, though, the freshman and Fruendt become critical. NU’s third freshman is Mike Turner. The local product is regarded as something of a project, but is said to have a high athletic upside. My thought here is that if he can rebound at all he should be in the rotation. If he can sub at one of the front court spots and pull down three or four rebounds in ten minutes of action he potentially becomes a key player.

So does Northwestern have depth? Well, maybe. They’ve got a collection of players on the bench with skill, but three are young and another is fairly untested. Bill Carmody has no fear of using a short bench, but I hope the young guys are good enough he doesn’t have to do so this season.

Reasons for Optimism for Basketball Season

After watching Northwestern attempt to play football the last few weeks I think all NU fans could use some positive thoughts. Now, to be honest I’m probably less optimistic about the upcoming men’s basketball season at Northwestern than I was the past two years, but even so I still think the ‘Cats post another 20-win season. The difference is that I’m less of a believer that this is THE YEAR for NU hoops without a clear starter at point guard. Nevertheless, several strong reasons do exist to believe the ‘Cats will be actually be better this year than last year.

1) The team is actually healthy. Everyone remembers that John Shurna played hurt most of last season, but many forget JerShon Cobb did as well. I think based on simply talent that Cobb is probably NU’s second best player (behind Shurna) which means that last year NU was playing with a serious handicap when both were hurt. With both healthy one can look at the world from a more optimistic point of view.

2) Freshman Impact. Bill Carmody hasn’t been afraid to use freshman over his time in Evanston and he’ll need production this year from Tre Demps and David Sobolewski. The good news is both should be able to help as either a starter at guard or off the bench. Both players are regarded as good scores who can hit an outside shot and both offer some size which could help in rebounding.

3) Defense. Yes, defense. Northwestern played much better defense at the end of last season when they started to trust the ability to play some man-to-man along with the 1-3-1. With Cobb and Shurna at 100% and Alex Marcotullio being one of the peskier defenders in the Big Ten, it’s actually reasonable to believe the ‘Cats should be able to win any game that they score more than 65 points in this year.

4) An experienced front court. Obviously, John Shurna has seen the court a ton over the past three years, but so have Luka Mirkovic and Davide Curletti. Drew Crawford has been a starter for two full seasons. That means everyone the ‘Cats put out at positions 3/4/5 will have at least two (if not three) years as a starter under their belt.

5) Shooting. Northwestern wins when they shoot well and they still have solid outside shooters in Shurna, Crawford, and Marcotullio. If Luka or Davide gets more involved from the top of the key and one of the freshman makes an impact as a scorer the ‘Cats should put up some big point totals.

What About Next Year?

It’s national signing day for football and that gives me a reason to look to the future of the basketball program as well. I know this season is far form over and it is even possible that Northwestern could post a four game winning streak and be back at .500 in the Big Ten and ready for late February/early March push towards the NCAA tournament if they learn from their near upset of Ohio State as they face a favorable portion of the schedule. However, I think in this lag between games thinking about next year isn’t unreasonable.

One of the popular frustrations I hear from NU fans is that if this year isn’t “the year” then we’re in big trouble because next year is going to be terrible without Juice Thompson. Let me say I’m a big fan of Juice and I very much wish NU would have put the ball in his hands with 40 some seconds left in the Ohio State game, but I also don’t think losing him instantly means NU is going to revert to the bottom of the Big Ten. Sure, the point guard is a key position in college basketball, but a close look at the Princeton Offense reveals it isn’t as dependent on a point guard as other offensive systems. NU won six Big Ten games with former walk-on Michael Jenkins as the starting point guard in the 2005-06 season. The reason the PO can work without a great point guard is because every player on the court in the PO must be a good passer/distributor and be able to set up teammates for baskets. In other systems, the point guard is the only the player who does this. Certainly, Juice is valuable when teams press NU, but the Big Ten doesn’t have a ton of teams who press and I don’t think that’ll change next year. In fact, if you look closely, Juice has at times this season handed off point duties against non-pressure teams to JerShon Cobb and Alex Marcotullio. This has probably allowed Juice to get more shots, but it has also given JerShon and Alex good experience which they might need next season. Both of those players have shown a good understanding of how the Princeton Offense works and both will no doubt improve from the heavy minutes they have played this year. Also, both have shown the ability to get to the hoop which is the major aspect of Juice’s game that I’d be worried about losing. What will need to happen for next year is that Alex and JerShon will need to learn from Juice’s aggressiveness when an opening presents itself or the shot clocking is running down. Actually, with his quickness, I’d like to see JerShon Cobb starting to get more aggressive to the hoop right now.

Another reason why I think NU will be just as good next year is that I’m banking on John Shurna staying healthy. Last year, Juice was my MVP for NU because he really made NU function. This year, John Shurna will most likely get the nod for that award because it was clear how NU’s entire season changed when he got hurt. Shurna has become one of the best all around scorers in the Big Ten and one of the deadliest shooters in the nation when he’s 100%. If he’s 100% next year, I think NU will work to get him 15 shots a game or more. That means that the team’s point guard will likely have to take less of a scoring role and therefore someone like Marcotullio or one of NU’s two guard recruits Tre Demps or David Sobolewski can likely handle that responsibility.

I also have to say I have a lot of confidence in Demps and Sobolewski. Yes, NU’s big man recruiting has been hit or miss under Bill Carmody, but NU’s consistently brought in solid guards. T.J. Parker, Craig Moore, and Juice all played well as freshmen. No reason exits to think either Demps or Sobolewski won’t be able to do the same.
Plus, those two will benefit from not only having Shurna on the court, but Drew Crawford who is a multi-year starter and Cobb who has started every game he has been physically able to play and Luka Mirkovic who will also have years of starting experience under his belt. Basically, next year’s team will be one of NU’s most experienced. In college basketball experience isn’t an automatic ticket to success, but for a team like Northwestern where talent has to be developed over time, experience generally does help.

Simply stated, I think this year’s Northwestern team and next year’s Northwestern teams are going to be very similar. I’d logically expect about five more Big Ten wins and an NIT bid from this year’s group and I think an 8-10 Big Ten record next year with Shurna and Mirkovic as seniors is logical expectation as well. Now, will four years of the NIT and no NCAA tournament be acceptable to the NU fan base at large—maybe not. But I think to assume NU is going to go back to winning just a handful of Big Ten games next year isn’t correct either.

What does everybody else think? Do you see progress next year or will NU drop back to the bottom of the Big 1o (12)?

Chicago's Mike Turner Commits to NU

Northwestern added another local player as Chicago University High School's Mike Turner commited to Northwestern after a visit on Saturday. Turner is 6-7 forward who is said to have a nice outside shot. Basically, he fits the mode of the type of forward NU wants to play in Coach Carmody's offense. He is a class of 2011 recuirt so he will sign in the fall period with Tre Demps and fellow Chicago-area prep star David Sobolewski.

NU adds second 2011 guard

Tre Demps from San Antonio, Texas will join David Sobolewski as NU's second 2011 recruit. Demps fits NU well as fellow Big Ten team Minnesota joined Harvard and Stanford in the battle to recruit the combo guard.