It’s the Defense, Stupid.

*I've put all the key points of this post in bold so you don't have to read the whole thing if you don't want. Actually, just skip to the last line that’s all you need to read.

Until Northwestern learns to actually play consistent hard man-to-man defense they will never make the NCAA Tournament. Sadly, it doesn’t look like they’ll learn that lesson this year. This game was lost because Northwestern couldn’t stop Wisconsin. The game started with the Badgers making uncontested threes and the game was won when the Badgers made 7-of-8 shots, including several threes, at the start of the second half.

I can’t tell you how upset I am at the fact Northwestern can’t play defense. As many good things as we’ve seen from Northwestern in the last 4 years, the lack of the ability to play defense is a major problem. You can’t only focus on offense which is what it seems that not only Northwestern’s team does, but the media as well. If I have to hear one more time about how great a scoring duo John Shurna and Drew Crawford are while NU is getting craved up for easy basket after easy basket I’m going to vomit. The only thing worse is hearing about how this might be the year for NU to make the Big Dance. Guess what? IT"S NOT!!!!!!!!!!

Admittedly, there were some good things that happened in this game early such as seeing NU attack the basket and seeing a seemingly gaining confidence Dave Sobolewski who showed some nice assertiveness. I still think NU needs some special plays for John Shurna, say run him off some screens, when teams start focus on him, because I can’t stand the way Drew Crawford forces shots. Those shots are fine when 3 seconds are left on the shot clock, but not when 23 second are left and Crawford seems clueless to that fact.

Some other random thoughts on the game include that Luka Mirkovic was terrible and at this point NU is better with a small lineup than with him on the floor. Other people, Luka included if he’s going to play, need to start to look to score because teams are guarding Shurna and Crawford and if NU won’t run any special plays than they just won’t score. I don’t want to hear about how tough it is to win in Wisconsin because this Wisconsin team is not all that great other than Jordan Taylor and he played one of his best games of the year today.

Overall, I’m really just sick and tired of the inconsistency of Northwestern. They can’t handle success so they don’t really have that much. Looking ahead, the truth is thanks to the blown games vs Illinois and Michigan this is right now a team which is a lot closer to a bottom half NIT-seed than an NCAA Tournament bid. It’s sad, but it’s true and I’ll say that until NU wins a road Big Ten game then anybody who talks about this team as an NCAA Tournament team ought to have their head examined. The only place Northwestern is an NCAA Tournament team is Fantasy Island.

Can the ‘Cats Keep Wildcat Nation Smiling with a Win at Wisconsin?

As the Northwestern students rushed onto the court Saturday afternoon and Gus Johnson in his typical enthusiastic manner said, “Chicago’s…Big…Ten…Team!” (BTW, I’d have Johnson’s call on that in every NU promo from now until the Sun burns out). Wildcat Nation had to break out into a collective grin. The two losses the Wildcats suffered to Illinois and Michigan had left me (and I assume most of you) just sad. Not even upset. Just so sad. On Thursday after the Michigan loss I had people ask if I felt sick and I really think it was because I was just so depressed after seeing the Wildcats fail in what seemed like a defining game for this season that I simply didn’t look well. I know I’m way too invested in what happens with the ‘Cats and sincerely wish I had something else in my life with which to replace them as a priority, but I don’t and so I’m hoping that my depression from the Michigan loss can be totally replaced after a win Wednesday in Madison. Sure, the Michigan State win was great, but the losses to Illinois and Michigan right now are still haunting defeats. However, that can change. NU has a great chance to beat Wisconsin at the Kohl Center for the first time ever this week. In addition, Minnesota is an inconsistent team that I could see the Wildcats being able to play with when they travel up to the Twin Cities on Sunday.

For now though let’s keep focused on what’s going on in Madison. This is a talented Wisconsin team, but they’re underachieving right now. Especially on offense. Rumors are even circulating that star guard Jordan Taylor is playing hurt and that’s the reason for his only shooting 39% overall and only 31% from three point range. Whatever the case, Taylor has looked far more mortal this season than in the last two and his struggles have turned into team struggles as the Badgers have failed to score. When the Badgers have scored they’ve done so by supporting Taylor’s 13.8ppg with Jared Breggren (10.9ppg) inside and two recruits who chose Wisconsin over Northwestern Josh Gasser (48.9% 3PT) and Ben Brust (40.2% 3PT) from the outside. Gasser’s probably been the most consistent of the guards as Brust has had some big games such as seven threes versus UNLV and had some days where he seriously struggled. Honestly, though, I think NU can out shoot Wisconsin if it comes down to that. My bigger concern is on the offensive glass. Davide Curletti played the game his life on Saturday getting NU some second chance points and helping contain Michigan State’s front court from getting easy putbacks. However, I question the reality of getting the same game out of Curletti again. I think NU will need something good out of Luka Mirkovic and Davide as they battle the rebounding of Breggren, Ryan Evans, and the aptly named Mike Bruesewitz who pull down five-plus boards. Also, don’t discount Gasser as a rebounder. He’s very active around the glass. I have to say that although Josh Gasser obviously isn’t the dominate player that Andrew Luck is that as much as the Wildcats might lament losing out on Luck to Stanford in football, losing Gasser was just as bad for basketball. Based on who the ‘Cats had on the team these last two years and Gasser’s shooting and active play I truly think he might have been the missing piece to NU making the tournament. Of course, he’s a Badger there is nothing that can be done about it. I can tell you, though, I’m going to be really really pissed if he’s the difference in this game.

Looking at the game, NU used the 1-3-1 all game vs MSU, but Wisconsin is a different type of team. They’re a little better at taking care of the ball and have the potential to shoot better. However, if the Badgers continue to slump shooting then perhaps the 1-3-1 could be the key to a win. One thing we know for sure is that taking care of the ball will be key as this should be a low scoring game. I know Northwestern can win this game. However, with Bill Carmody’s 0-12 record in Madison and the way NU get hammered by Wisconsin last year I can’t really honestly predict an NU victory. Plus, Wisconsin is by far the most physical team in the Big Ten and NU seems to basically have six players right now with Alex Marcotullio likely out, JerShon Cobb at something like 70%, and Nick Fruendt as the primary sub at guard and Luka Mirkovic as the primary sub in the front court. That’s tough. I think this is a close game and I think NU can win, but they’ll need a lot of breaks which might not happen in Mad Town. I Predict: Wisconsin, 55 Northwestern, 50

Wisconsin Continues Home Dominance in Win Over Northwestern

Nothing all that unexpected happened in Wisconsin’s 78-63 win over Northwestern and from NU point of view the loss itself isn’t that depressing. After all, everybody losses at Wisconsin. What is depressing is that you could probably have predicted how the game would go without having to see it and that shows NU’s total lack of progress. Once again the Wildcats got buried in a huge hole, played awful defense (especially to start the game), stayed close with threes, had a chance to swing momentum, but in the end lost because the other team made more clutch shots. It was much like the game Thursday vs Penn State or any number of other NU games this season.

It’s this holding pattern of the same mistakes over and over again that has me so frustrated with this team and coaching. Once again, NU started the game with some of the most fundamentally unsound defense you can play in Division 1 basketball. They tried to bail themselves out with the 1-3-1, but the Big Ten has adjusted to that gimmick in the last two years it seems. Plus, with as good as Wisconsin shoots and passes the ball, the 1-3-1 isn’t going to beat this Badger team. It is the total lack of defense that has me most upset and I’m really getting sick of zones all the time. In basketball I believe you should play man-to-man defense most of the time and have a zone to use against poor shooting teams and as a key change up. Honestly, man-to-man defense doesn’t take that much talent. It takes wanting to make an effort to play hard ALL OF THE TIME Wisconsin had a bunch of guys on the floor who wouldn’t beat many NU guys in a foot race or jumping contest, but who play 100 time better defense than NU and actually do a far better job of moving their feet to contest drives because it is important to them and doesn’t seem to be to NU’s players or coaches. Sorry folks, but no team can be fundamentally as bad on defense consistently as NU and have the coach not deserve some blame. In the second half, NU played much better defense after going away from the 1-3-1 for the most part and actually made a game of the contest. Unfortunately, they missed a couple key shots whereas Wisconsin made some and that was enough to push the Badgers over the top.

I was happy to see Drew Crawford get more assertive on both offense and defense in the second half (he does need to make free throws) and David Curletti played a career game. Crawford to me is far too bothered, though, by not scoring. When he didn’t score in the first half he played crap defense, when he got aggressive on offense and saw the ball go in the hoop in the second half he played hard defense. Curletti saved NU from getting blown out a couple times with some nice baskets and some decent defense as well. Luka Mirkovic was terrible tonight against Jon Leuer’s superior athletic skill. Perhaps the whole night was summed up in a sequence were Luka had a point blank layup and threw it basically from one side of the glass to the other almost as if he were trying to use the glass to pass the ball (but, sadly, he was trying to score) and then on the other end of the floor Leuer made an inside bucket as he was falling out of bounds and got fouled. And, yes, Luka got fouled on his miss too, but the point is Leuer converted a much tougher shot and took contact and Luka missed a 1-footer by 3-feet.

Northwestern is now 6-11 in the Big Ten and plays 6-10 Minnesota on Wednesday. Those teams will likely also play in the first round of the Big Ten Tournament. I don’t really know what to expect, but I hope a good crowd comes out to honor Juice Thompson on his senior day. This team has massively underachieved and they’ve caught some bad luck (the latest another injury to JerShon Cobb) but Juice has fought through all of it and deserves respect for that.

I am tremendously sick of the DVR stuck on reply collection of mistakes NU makes game after game and desperately want someone to make those stop, but I’m willing to sit through them to say thanks to Juice and the other seniors. After that, unless NU learns to play defense and rebound they’ll only have one more game anyway because a 6-12 Big Ten team that hasn’t won in three weeks is not getting an NIT invite.

151-12…Say You Can, Know You Will!

When Kevin O’Neill was hired as Northwestern’s head coach someone asked him what the difference was between him and then football coach Gary Barnett. O’Neill replied that Barnett was more of a “slogan and song coach” while O’Neill himself was more of a “play your butt off or I’ll kill you coach” (of course it was KO so he didn’t say butt). Bill Carmody has never to me fit into either category. He’s certainly not a slogan and a song guy, but if he were one to kill guys who didn’t play hard, NU would have run out of players the last few years. So, what is Bill Carmody? I don’t know, but if wants to lead NU to victory over a Wisconsin team that is 151-11 in home games under Bo Ryan and beat Northwestern like the proverbial drum at Welsh-Ryan he needs to be Gary Barnett.

People don’t realize that what Gary Barnett did in taking Northwestern to the Rose Bowl in 1995 (okay the game as Jan 1, '96) was probably the greatest coaching job ever in NCAA history. It’s marred now by his unceremonious departure from NU which pissed the NU community and the disastrous conclusion to his tenure at Colorado which made him something of a coaching pariah. The truth is, though, what Barnett did was amazing. He sold his players on belief without evidence and they chose to believe. When he took them to South Bend, Indiana as 27-point underdogs and told them not to dump Gatorade on him or carry him off the field after they won the game, the players took that as a natural instruction because he’d been training them to expect to beat Norte Dame from the time they started spring and with those final instructions he reminded them he KNEW it would happen. Yes, part of the reason Northwestern won that game was a great defense and some major clutch offense from Darnell Autry, Steve Schnur, and D’Wayne Bates, but you can’t underestimate the psychological advantage Barnett gave his players leading up to that September 2, 1995 day.

I think for NU’s men’s hoops team to beat Wisconsin on Sunday it is critical to gain a similar psychological edge. That’s why if I were Bill Carmody I’d paste 151-12 all over the place. I’d put it in the locker room, I’d put on the road trip agenda, I’d even top on the marquee on the team bus. I’d want our guys to be focused on the idea that it is possible to beat Wisconsin at the Khol Center and that there should be a belief inside the program that such a thing is possible.

I really do believe confidence and comfort is a major factor in basketball success because shooting is such a precise motion. Confident and relaxed a good shooter is going to make the majority of his shots, but part of the game is getting him out his rhythm. The defense tries to do this as does the home crowd. Between Bo Ryan’s tough man-to-man and the Wisconsin home crowd it’s pretty easy for even the best shooters to get a little tense and rush their shots in Madtown. But it doesn’t have to happen. Northwestern has a group of great shooters that when they feel good can put up points as well as team in the NCAA. They have an offense that when run correctly can get them open shots against any team in the NCAA. The problem is when panic sets in and they start to miss shots and stop running their offense. We’ve seen that happen several times this year, including the first game against Wisconsin. But, again, it doesn’t have to happen.

I honestly believe that an athlete can think themselves into success long before a game is played. Does it guarantee victory? No. But it does give that athlete the best chance at victory because confidence increases one’s chance at successes. That’s what I want from the Wildcats on Sunday. I want them to give themselves the chance to win they didn’t give themselves in the past. I want them to look at 151-12 and say to themselves, “We can make that happen.” And inside KNOW they will make it happen.

I actually really do think NU will win this game. The sad part is thanks to the loss Thursday vs Penn State the win will really be meaningless (unless you’re really hyped about the difference between being a 5-seed instead of a 6-seed in the NIT).

Once Again NU Embarrassed in Key Game

Northwestern got creamed at home today by a team that should of lost to Indiana. Obviously NU didn’t shoot well overall and Drew Crawford was a non-factor, but the reason for the loss goes back to defense and rebounding. Good teams can make up for off shooting nights by playing defense and rebounding because those aren’t based on skill or luck. They’re just based on desire. Northwestern hasn’t been able to play very well on defense or rebound regularly for some time now. I like Bill Carmody as a person and think offensively he is a good coach, but something needs to be done about his teams’ defense (or lack of it) I don’t think the replacement of an assistant coach with someone with more of a background in teaching man-to-man defense would be unwarranted. Let’s face it no matter how many fans can’t deal with the fact the truth is Carmody himself is sticking around for two more years. No way exists that Northwestern is going to fork over the money to pay two men’s basketball head coaches at once (unless Pat Ryan or the professor who invented lyrica decides he wants Carmody canned and gives Jim Phillips the money to payoff Bill for two years), so it’s time to get over the desire to see Carmody axed and start functioning in reality when looking for ways to fix Northwestern’s basketball problems for the next two seasons. I see brining in someone who can coach defense as an option that fits both the realistic head coaching situation and NU’s desire to save cash.

This game was over from the moment Wisconsin got a 22-16 lead and NU couldn’t answer because they’re defense was poor that no doubt existed that Wisconsin was going to keep scoring the entire game. I personally would have liked to grab four friends and play against NU today. I think we could have at least put up 50. I don’t really have anything good to say about how Northwestern played or coached. They just seemed to melt under the pressure of the big game. That’s sadly become NU’s rep in football and men’s basketball and it sure as hell sucks as fan. And yes I know that’s a selfish statement because the players are doing their best, but it still is true. For whatever reason Northwestern isn’t a team that’s had a lot of mental toughness over the years and sadly if you aren’t very physically talented or tough you don’t win unless you’re mentally tough.

I don’t know why the players don’t take more offense at the fact everybody comments on their inability to win when it matters and then try to do something to prove the critics wrong, but every big game they wilt like flowers without water in the desert heat. The good news is this isn’t NU’s last chance to do something significant win wise, but it was actually (to me) their easiest. Winning on the road is tough and Illinois and Ohio State are better teams than Wisconsin.

I’ll let others blogs and media outlets breakdown the game more precisely from a basketball game plan point of view, but I’m really not sure what there is to breakdown other than to say NU played bad defense and didn’t shoot well enough to make up for that fact and once again Drew Crawford made Harry Houdini look like a light weight with his ability to disappear. I was impressed with Wisconsin on the glass, but they did have a rather significant height advantage so maybe that’s not as remarkable as one might think.

Bottom line, the win over Michigan this week was nice and NU still hasn’t lost to any bad teams and even if they lose their next three in a row that’ll remain true. However, as a fan I’m struggling a little bit because it seems like Northwestern basketball will always crush your positive expectations and I’m a bit of an optimist (as I think most NU fans are), so mine (ours) get crushed a lot. I know even if I realistically predict losses in game previews that I brainwash myself into thinking that NU will every game before it tips. I have to say, though, that at this point I’m a little more frustrated than after previous bad losses just based on NU’s total lack of positive effort today in what the whole world would agree was a big game played at home. It NU wasn’t ready to play. That’s been the case far too often over the past few years when things really mattered and it is starting ware thin on many Northwestern fans. You can only get yourself worked up and excited for something and that watch it fall flat so many times before you realize you’re doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different outcome, which just happens to be the definition of insanity (and you probably do need to be a little insane to cheer for Northwestern year after year in men’s hoops). How crazy am I? I actually still think NU will beat Illinois at home (though I’m not so sure about at Minnesota or Ohio State). Of course, home court advantage I’m afraid might not be a factor for the Ohio State and Illinois games which could really hurt NU. I suspect Welsh-Ryan will have many visitors and very few NU students for those contests after today and while I hate to excuse fair-weather fans, I’m not sure I can really blame them at this point. Hopefully, they’ll have reason to get excited after Wednesday and the OSU game (which is on ESPN2) will have a decent crowd of purple. That would be nice, of course it would also be nice if not only the fans but the team showed up as well.

We’re now almost half way through the Big Ten season, what does everyone else think about NU’s future prospects at this point?

Wisconsin Meets Northwestern in First of Two Wisconsin/Chicago Battles on Sunday

Your average Chicago sports fan will wake up on Sunday morning pumped up to see the Chicago Bears meet Wisconsin’s NFL team, the Green Bay Packers, in a battle for the right to advance to the Super Bowl. Personally, I’m going to be much more pumped for another battle between a Wisconsin institution and a Chicago-area team. The University of Wisconsin’s Badgers versus our Northwestern Wildcats at 11:30AM in Welsh-Ryan Arena.

While most people in Chicago won’t see NU/Wisky as all that significant a contest with the Bears/Packers game foremost on their minds, the truth is Chicago’s Big Ten Team needs this win as much as Chicago’s NFL Team needs their own. Northwestern hasn’t yet found a way to beat a team that is perceived and ranked as better than them this season. They’ve hammered a number of weaker squads, but that’s not enough to make a serious case for admission to the NCAA Tournament. Now, beating Wisconsin in Welsh-Ryan might not exactly qualify as a true signature win, it’ll be the first serious supporting detail in the thesis statement that Northwestern is an NCAA Tournament team.

Last year Wisconsin was to Northwestern what Michigan State was this season. NU should have won both games, but ended up losing both. What makes Wisconsin such a difficult matchup for NU is their size and the deliberate style of basketball they play. Wisconsin leads the nation in fewest turnovers and doesn’t rush to get shots. They score just about 70 points per game, but are very happy to play games in the 60s. They also shoot 44% overall and 37% from three as a team. That means that not only does Wisconsin get a shot up on the rim almost every possession, but they can make a pretty high percentage of those. If they miss, they have 191 offensive rebounds this season and forward Keaton Nankivil has 34 of those. Almost half of his about 5 rebounds per game come on the offensive end. Wisconsin’s overall rebound advantage is only about four boards a game more than their opponents, but Nankivil and Jon Leuer, who scores about 19 a game and rebounds more than seven, will give NU problems with their size and physical play. Plus, they aren’t the only big physical players Wisconsin has. It seems like Bo Ryan has some sort of cloning lab at the UW’s med school because he keeps trotting out big guys who appear similar and play a similarly physical style. Mike Brusesewitz is aptly named as he doesn’t shy away from contact nor does Jared Berggren. I think if John Shurna were totally healthy he’d be a big problem for these guys with his quickness and Wisconsin might have to put a smaller defender on him, but I worry that with his ankle Shurna will be defended by one of Wisconsins’s bigs and they’ll get a hand in his face and he won’t be able to get around them.

Wisconsin in the backcourt has Jordan Taylor at the point who is one of several great Big Ten points. He scores about 17 a game and isn’t a good a three point shooter as Nankivil or Leuer who are each over 45%, but he can knock down the open jumper as can swingman Tim Jarmusz. I think NU has to try to play matchup or man-to-man versus Wisconsin because the Badgers have too many weapons they could use against a 1-3-1.

I think NU also has to try to take Wisconsin out of their deliberate pace. NU needs to get some shots up and in early to try and force Wisconsin into a game in which they have move up and down the court and possibly make mistakes. That’s why this being a home game is such an advantage for Northwestern. The Wildcats clearly play better at home. The guards and forwards shoot better from three and the centers seem smarter with the ball and more willing to fight for rebounds. If NU comes out hot from three as they have often in Welsh-Ryan Arena and stays smart with the ball the while game, I think they’ll post a big win for them and the City of Chicago. I predict: Northwestern, 81 Wisconsin, 77

Close Doesn’t Count: Wisconsin Beats Northwestern 70-63

I really don’t know what to say right now. I think I’m more disappointed than I was after Penn State and Iowa. I think I’m more disappointed than I was last year after Illinois. I thought the ‘Cats were going to do it. I hadn't gone crazy, I just really believed it. That’s why I predicted a win. I thought the matchup was favorable and the tide of the season (and maybe the program) was going to turn in Madison. I was wrong. NU nearly got the epic upset, but close counts in horseshoes and hand grenades, not Division I basketball.

I thought John Shurna played great in the second half, but I can’t believe he missed that last shot. I think what happened was he got caught in between shooting it straight in and using the glass. The game Shurna played in the second half is the game I really want to see him play. He’s an okay three point shooter, but his threes need to come in the flow of the offense. He can’t just jack threes up like he did early. If the offensive flow doesn’t present him three point looks, then he needs to attack the basket. That’s what he did today and finished with a more than respectable 24 points. I just wish he would have added two more thanks to that last shot or a couple missed free throws.

Defensively it was nice to see the ‘Cats pick up the intensity in the second half, but that’s the problem with this team, they don’t bring intensity for 40 minutes. I can’t begin to explain why. Personally, I’d be pretty pumped for the chance to play basketball in the Big Ten (heck, I'm excited to watch basketball in the Big Ten), but this team is ho-hum about their special opportunity much too often. Perhaps as a consequence of that, they’re also extremely soft. They let Wisconsin abuse them on the boards and got a number of shots blocked. The reason is that NU way too often tried to finger role in layups. They need to put their shoulder to the hoop and take some contact. For those who can dunk (i.e. Davide Curletti) they need to try and dunk the ball inside instead of finger rolling layups. I will say that overall Curletti played a nice game. He’s a decent athlete, he can shoot the ball, and he’s got an idea of how to play defense inside. I really think Bill Carmody needs to turn Luka Mirkovic and Curletti loose from behind the three point line. They both can make that shot and several times today they passed wide open threes and NU didn’t get a good shot in the possession. Now, I’m not saying the center position needs to try 10 threes a game, but 5 wouldn’t hurt. I also think Curletti's game shows why Kyle Rowley should seriously consider a redshirt next year.

The bottom line, though, is if Northwestern played with the intensity they played with in the second half all the time they’d already have 20 wins. I don’t know why they don’t bring that intensity all the time. Obviously, the players and coaches don’t either because I assume they’d correct that otherwise. Whatever the reason, NU needs to find out quickly. The NU team that showed in the second half could do some damage in the Big Ten Tournament, but the team that played the first half (and Iowa and Penn State) will get crushed by anyone, including Indiana.

The lack of intensity is mostly evident of defense. You can tell when the ‘Cats extend the 1-3-1 zone and Jeremy Nash starts tipping passes and the other guys are hustling after loose balls. Some fans criticize the extend 1-3-1, but when it’s run right it’s tough to beat. A good extended 1-3-1 keeps the ball away from the basket and forces deep threes. Even good three point shooters struggle to hit from 25 feet. The problem is NU sometimes plays a weak version of that zone which allows easy inside shots and 19-foot threes.

What many don’t realize is NU’s lack of intensity is also present on offense. When NU actively passes and attacks the basket, that’s intensity. Look at the second half when they get easy inside looks. When they just pass the ball around the perimeter and force three pointers, that’s the same passive approach which results in poor defense.

Somehow, someway this team needs to wake up and play hard all the time. They actually remind me of another NU team, the 98-99 team. That team also had a habit of digging a hole and trying to comeback, but failing. Two good examples (of several) were an 82-79 loss at Indiana (a game in which Evan Eschmeyer recorded NU’s only triple-double) and the NIT game at DePaul. Basically, this goes back to what I said before the game. At some point an NU team will decide to be different than their predecessors. Maybe this just isn't that team.

Game 27: Northwestern Wildcats @ Wisconsin

The Matchup: Northwestern (17-9) @ Wisconsin (19-7)

Location: Kohl Center (Madison, WI)

TV: Big Ten Network (1:00 PM Sunday February 21st, 2010)

Radio: WGN AM 720

Fun Fact: Northwestern was the opponent when Wisconsin opened the Kohl Center

About the Game
Wisconsin beat Northwestern 60-50 in Evanston this season. It was the Badgers first game without Jon Leuer and for a time it seemed the team from Madison was in deep trouble without their star. Thankfully for the Badgers, but much to the dismay of the Wildcats, Wisconsin’s other star, Trevon Hughes, picked up the slack in the game’s final 7 minutes to help push Wisconsin on to victory.

The win helped prove to the Badgers they could be successful without Leuer. Now, Leuer is back, having returned in a loss at Minnesota, and the Badgers need to win if they want to stay in the Big Ten Title race. For Northwestern, the loss to the Badgers is one of three or four Big Ten losses which could have turned NU’s season around. The ‘Cats, once seemingly headed to the NCAA Tournament, are now fighting for Big Ten Tournament positioning and a possible high seed in the NIT.

If Northwestern is to pull an epic upset, NU will need to improve on defense. NU’s defensive effort recently has not impressed. The Wildcats have allowed teams to get easy looks at the basket when playing both the 1-3-1 and the matchup zone or switching man-to-man. For whatever reason, it seems this group of NU players lack the innate aggressiveness to pressure passing lanes some of their predecessors have possessed. When they do so, say the last 9:33 of last week’s Minnesota game, this team has the ability to be very good, but it just doesn’t seem to happen enough. Some cite Bill Carmody’s lack of bench use as the reason for this, but I fear many of NU’s bench players wouldn’t be capable of playing pressure defense even if they wanted to do so. If NU wants to beat Wisconsin, the starting five need to fully invest in their defensive effort.

The key guy will be Luka Mirkovic who will be faced with tough matchups down low in Leuer (14.7ppg 5.9rpg) and Keaton Nankivil (8.7ppg 5.0rpg). Both Badger forwards are athletic and can score inside as well as outside. Mirkovic certainly has the skill to defend them, but Luka as a player hasn’t exactly ever taken the advice of NU football coach Pat Fitzgerald and “flushed” bad play. Instead, Luka seems to let it linger, and he missed six key free throws last time out. Mirkovic is perhaps NU’s biggest key to victory. He must “flush” his poor play from Wednesday if NU wants to win.

NU also needs to find a way to contain Trevon Hughes (15.5ppg 38.9% 3PT) and Jason Bohannon (12.2ppg 41.1% 3PT) on the perimeter. In Evanston, Bohannon had a big first half before Hughes finished off the game. While there are some tough matchups in man-t0-man, none are ridiculous in favor of Wisconsin. The key is probably Drew Crawford who would have to face either Bohannon or Hughes. Crawford is physically gifted enough to play man-to-man on anyone, but sometimes he doesn’t bring his “A” game. That’s not uncommon for freshman, but at this point Crawford should have the confidence to show up each game. He’s more than proven he belongs. Now he needs to make sure he lets others know that. His whole team does.

Somehow, it seems Northwestern’s basketball program suffers from some sort of collective mental or physical block. It doesn’t seem to matter what season it is or what personnel are involved. NU hoops remains unable to get over the hump and defy expectations. They’ve come remarkably close multiple times. Probably closer in the last two years than anytime before (though the 98-99 team came awfully close as well, especially in the Big Ten Tournament), but yet NU seems to remain, to paraphrase former NU football coach Dennis Green, exactly what people think they are. They are a team that can certainly pull an upset (ask current #4 Purdue), but they aren’t the team that has truly broken through and become the nightmare matchup a really talented Princeton Offense squad can be for athletic opponents. If NU is to become that team, if they are going to start defying expectations and become more than people think they are, beating Wisconsin in Madison would be a good place to start. It wouldn’t put NU back in the NCAA Tournament, but it would still be one of the more meaningful wins in program history.

Prediction
So can Northwestern win? The easy answer is that they have no chance. Wisconsin is at home, they’re upset after their last loss, and they have guys like Hughes, Leuer, Bohannon, and Jordan Taylor (9.7ppg 29.4% 3PT). I think the truth, though, is NU does have a chance. As I noted above, NU doesn’t have any terrible matchups with Wisconsin. In fact, I’d much rather matchup with Wisconsin than Michigan State or Ohio State. In NU’s loss to the Badgers, it simply came down to Trevon Hughes making big plays, but that’s not to say that on a different day Juice Thompson couldn’t be the one making big plays. The problem with the game Sunday is that Wisconsin is at the Kohl Center. They’re 52-1 in that building against non-ranked Big Ten teams. Of course, they’re only 1-1 in their last two games. They also almost lost to Penn State and Michigan in that building earlier this season. Clearly this Wisconsin squad isn’t as dominate as past teams. Bottom line, I think NU can win. If NU is to win, though, they need to get through above-mentioned block. They can’t just go through the motions and expect a loss just because the game’s at the Kohl Center. That’s what NU teams of the past have done. Is this team any different? After the loss to Penn State it is easy to answer, “no”, and that’s the answer everybody would expect from NU. No NU team in history has ever answered “yes” to that question. I say that changes Sunday at 1:00PM. Northwestern, 61 Wisconsin, 60*




* We’ll call this the Welsh-Ryan Ramblings Expect Victory Upset Special of the Year. I didn’t have one last year, but looking back at my predictions it probably would have been against Illinois, that almost worked out.

Who is NU’s Biggest Basketball Rival?

Is Iowa NU's Biggest Rival in Basketball?

So it’s Rivalry Week on the ESPN family of networks this week. Games featured include Duke and North Carolina, Syracuse and UConn, and Purdue and Michigan State. This got me thinking about the basketball rivalries which include Northwestern. Who is Northwestern’s biggest basketball rival? The quickest answer is Illinois. That’s possible. Another quick answer is that NU hasn’t had enough success in basketball to sustain rivalries like they have in football against teams like Iowa and Wisconsin. I refuse to believe this. Northwestern might not have a great deal of basketball success, but they’ve been a pain in the neck for enough teams that at least a couple regular opponents have to be considered rivals. I’ve looked at a few factors such as how competitive games have been, how often the teams have met, and what type of relationship fans seems to have. As a result, I’ve come up with four potential candidates for NU’s biggest rival. They might not be Duke-UNC, but NU does have rivals.

Rival #1: Illinois
Illinois makes this list in large part because they are the only other Big Ten team in state. Also, because of this fact many families and friends in Illinois have connections to both Northwestern and Illinois. This creates some friendly (perhaps even sibling) rivalries which can make attending these matchups fun. On the other hand, I find that the rivalry with Illinois tends to be somewhat relaxed because of these connections. Their simply isn’t the bitterness that exists between other rivals. The other fact is, disappointing as it is for NU fans to admit, NU has struggled against Illinois even when the Wildcats have had respectable teams. The win over Illinois on January 23rd gave NU just their 3rd win over the Fighting Illini in the last 11 years. Northwestern has some poor records against conference foes over that time, but only Ohio State and Michigan State have been more successful than U of I against NU since the 1998-99 season.

Rival #2: DePaul
I’d really argue strongly for DePaul as NU’s biggest rival if the Blue Demons hadn’t dropped NU off the schedule this year. Sure, the teams are going to meet again next season, but I don’t think Indiana and Kentucky are likely to take time off from their rivalry anytime soon. If NU and DePaul want to be serious about their rivalry they need to play. It was a big deal to me when NU and DePaul seemed to recommit to playing regularly in the early 2000s and for the sake of college basketball in Chicago they should stick to that commitment. What I like about the argument for this rivalry is that it has been relatively close recently. The teams have split their last 6 meetings. Also, the two teams have a legitimate postseason history, having met in the NIT three times. DePaul has won two of three, but each has been close. In addition, at least from my personal experience, NU and DePaul can become a rivalry in the stands as well. I remember being somewhat horrified as a youngster when my mother got into a war of words with two drunken DePaul fans who were taunting Evan Eschmeyer during the 1999 NIT game at the Rosemont Horizon.

Rival #3: Wisconsin
This would be more of a rivalry if NU could win in Madison, but then again nobody wins in Madison, so maybe it doesn’t matter. The fact is NU has given Wisconsin a ton of trouble in Evanston over the past decade. Even NU’s losses have more often resembled this year’s tight battle to the wire as opposed the 2008 game which served as Wisconsin’s coronation as Big Ten Champs. This rivalry also gets extra points for NU winning over Wisconsin fairly consistently in the mid-1990s. Wisconsin was NU’s victim twice during the run to the 1993-94 NIT, including a memorable game in Evanston when NU guard Kip Kirkpatrick looked down future NBA-star Michael Finley. Also, during his brief stay in Evanston, Geno Carlisle led NU to a couple victories over the Badgers.

Rival #4: Iowa
If I had to vote (and I actually did in the poll above) I’d vote for Iowa. Some of that might be pent up anger over their way their fans often dis NU in football, but I think during the Steve Alford era this became a pretty decent basketball rivalry. Not only did NU finally breakthrough with a win in Iowa City in 2004, but the ‘Cats and Hawkeyes played a number of down to the wire games which resulted in NU wins. Michael Jenkins became an NU legend for beating Iowa, but people forget his heroics were sandwiched around a buzzer beater from Vedran Vukusic and an improbable off the bench shot from Evan Seacat which helped NU to victory when he hadn’t played in weeks. After each of those games, the Iowa fan base seemed to go crazy with frustration at their loss. In the last two years, the tables have somewhat turned. We NU fans have been the one’s feeling the frustration with a 1-3 record against the Hawkeyes. Last year’s loss in Iowa City was among the most frustrating for NU fans in a season of tough losses. The year before, when NU was desperately seeking a Big Ten win, was even worse as NU blew a double-figure lead thanks to Iowa starting pick apart the 1-3-1 zone. If NU doesn’t pull off the victory Wednesday night, the frustration level will probably hit a new high for NU fans.

Those are my thoughts. What does everybody else think? Comment and vote in the poll.

Opportunity Lost: Badgers top Wildcats 60-50

There really isn’t much to say about this game (but I’ll probably say a fair amount anyway). This contest can be boiled down to Northwestern missing a ton of opportunities to not only win the game, but actually take a solid lead and put Wisconsin away. First, at one point Wisconsin missed ten straight shots and NU couldn’t take control of the game. The biggest lead NU got in that sequence was 3 points. Second, NU allowed Wisconsin a ton of second chances and failed to get steals. If you can’t get rebounds, you have to get steals. Northwestern did neither. Third, Northwestern couldn’t make free throws. They finished 9-of-16 from the line, but all seven misses were big. Luka Mirkovic and Drew Crawford missed opportunities to extend the lead and Michael Thompson missed a chance to keep NU in the game with Wisconsin up 52-48. Thompson’s miss essentially resulted in a five point play when he missed the front end of the 1-and-1 and Hughes drilled a three.

Northwestern has at least 16 games left before Selection Sunday, but in failing to take this game on their home court, a game which Wisconsin wanted to give away, Northwestern looks more like a team destined for the NIT or CBI than the NCAA Tournament. Some will say I’m jumping the gun in that declaration, and for the record I’m not saying NU won’t make the NCAA Tournament, but I’m just evaluating what I see right now. If NU wants to make the NCAA Tournament they will need to take a lesson from last year’s Badgers and at some point make up for a poor stretch with a huge run. Saturday would be a good opportunity to start. Purdue will be looking to preserve their shot at the Big Ten Title, NU will be looking for the key chance for a marquee win they let slip through their fingers today.

Right now, as good as the Wildcats are in some areas, they are seriously flawed in others. Not as flawed as teams like Michigan or Iowa, but the Wildcats do have some clear deficiencies which have kept them from what could have been a 3-1 league start. For starters, what was supposed to be a deep team gets no production off the bench. Injuries aside, the ‘Cats are a five man team. In the last two games, NU’s bench production has been two Kyle Rowley rebounds and a lot of fouls. That’s not a recipe for success. Also, NU really isn’t a consistent free throw shooting team. The ‘Cats came through with free throws Sunday, but could have built an addition to Welsh-Ryan with their bricks tonight. Good teams are consistent from the line, especially from guys who are ball handlers and three point shooters. A little more consistency from behind the arc would also help NU. Somehow, Bill Carmody needs to get some pressure off of Thompson so he can get shots. Wisconsin is a good model. Letting Jordan Taylor handle some of the point guard load helps Hughes get into the offense more as a shooter. NU also failed to get anywhere near the 11 three pointers I said they would need to win. In fact, the ‘Cats hit just 5 and only 1 in the second half.

Looking at the stats, John Shurna played another solid game with 15 points and 6 rebounds (by my unofficial count) and Jeremy Nash added a more than adequate 13 points. I was very pleased see Nash play well. Also, Luka Mirkovic scored 8 points and had 10 rebounds, but as much as Wisconsin controlled the glass, I’m not sure I’d call Mirkovic’s performance his best. Some of those rebounds would have been tough to get too, but Coach Carmody did pull Luka after the two he missed out on when Wisconsin extended the lead and it looked as if he felt Luka didn't get into position.


Finally, I have to say the students did a very nice job of showing up tonight. However, I was still disappointed by the number of Badger fans present. I suspect it’ll be a similar situation Saturday with Purdue. Hopefully NU can fix some of their issues and those fans won’t have as much to cheer about.

Game 16: Wisconsin @ Northwestern Wildcats

The Matchup: Wisconsin (13-3) @ Northwestern (12-3)

Location: Welsh-Ryan Arena (Evanston, IL)

TV: Big Ten Network (7:30 PM CT Wednesday January 13th, 2010)
Radio: WGN 720 AM

Fun Fact: Wisconsin has six players on their roster of 16 players from their home state of Wisconsin. Northwestern has 7 (or 8 if you count Rowley) from their home state of Illinois.

About the Game
Wisconsin comes into this game fresh off a big upset win over then #4 Purdue. That has to give the Badgers confidence, but Welsh-Ryan hasn’t been an easy place for Bo Ryan’s teams over the years (plus NU has to feel pretty good after beating Michigan on the road). During Bo Ryan’s career as the head coach at Wisconsin, some very good Bager teams have taken an “L” or been forced to fight to the finish against the Wildcats in Evanston. Perhaps this is because Northwestern generally matches up well with Wisconsin as long as a raucous Kohl Center crowd isn’t there to intimidate the Wildcats.

Thinking about NU's matchup with Wisconsin, I think a key guy to stop will be Jason Bohannon. Bohannon has always been a great shooter, but he played one of the most impressive all around games of the season against Purdue. Not only did he shoot, but he got rebounds, got assists, and even blocked shots. A few days before against Michigan State he didn’t even seem to want to shoot. Taylor also had a great against Purdue, more than doubling his 9.3 points per game average. Part of the reason for that, though, was Wisconsin’s point guard Trevon Hughes was in foul trouble against the Boilers and spent a ton of time on the bench. Without Hughes’s 15.8 ppg, the Badgers looked more for Taylor. I’d predict that one of the two will have a good game against Northwestern. Therefore, it’ll be stopping Bohannon from getting easy looks at threes (as MSU did) which might be a defensive key for NU.

Obviously, a key issue in this game will be that Wisconsin will not have the services of Jon Leuer. Leuer is 6-10 and talented enough to score both inside (15.4 ppg) and outside (35.5% from three). Basically, he’s the player that Northwestern expects Luka Mirkovic to be. Often times teams rally after losing a star player, but Leuer going down is going to hurt Wisconsin. Fellow forward Keaton Nankivil will have to step his game for Wisconsin to continue to be successful not just vs the 'Cats, but all season.

The other major issue for NU will be handling Wisconsin’s defensive pressure. Purdue failed to do so, but they’re actually still a little weak in the backcourt without Lewis Jackson. Hopefully Juice Thompson’s two years of experience against the Badgers will make Wisconsin’s defense a non-factor against NU’s offense.

Prediction:
Wisconsin won with limited production from Jon Leuer on Saturday, but his presence on the court still helped the Badgers. His being on the bench will be an advantage to NU. Unfortunately, right now Wisconsin may still have something of a big crowd in Evanston as tickets remain. Hopefully a full NU student section can neutralize that advantage. I believe the two magic numbers for an NU victory will be 11 and 10. I think Northwestern needs to break the Wisconsin defense and hit 11 threes and they need to pick up 10 steals to counter the fact that even without Leuer, Wisconsin still has size. With Drew Crawford breaking out and Jeremy Nash waking up, I think NU can do both and win a close game. Northwestern, 67 Wisconsin 65

Craig Moore Ices Win for 'Cats 66-63

John Shurna got NU started with 2 early threes

Led by Craig Moore’s 26 points, and especially his six straight free throws in the last sixteen seconds, Northwestern edged Wisconsin 66-63 Saturday night in Evanston. Moore’s six free throws were huge because it was missed free throws which kept Wisconsin in the game early. A lot of those missed free throws fell on Kyle Rowley. However, Rowley did mange to get Badgers star Marcus Landry into foul trouble. That helped the Wildcats immensely. If Rowley makes his foul shots, which he has the ability to do, I still believe he can dominate some of the smaller centers in the Big Ten.

Another Wildcat freshman who stepped up was John Shurna. His ability knock down two early threes set an early tone of competiveness for NU. If Shurna regains his shooting stroke, he will provide NU another serious offensive threat. Speaking of offensive threats, Jeremy Nash played another solid all around game and ended up NU’s second leading scorer with 9 points. He hit 1-of-2 threes and made an unbelievable circus layup late in the game to help sustain the Wildcat lead. Nash’s play was critical as Wisconsin played lockdown defense on Kevin Coble holding him to only 7 points on 3-of-9 shooting. Luka Mirkovic also added seven and a late hook shot which, like Nash’s layup, was critical to holding the lead. Mirkovic also grabbed three rebounds which, for better or worse, made him NU’s leader.

Overall, Wisconsin had a 27-16 rebound edge, but Northwestern won the turnover battle by forcing 13 compared to only 8 forced by Wisconsin. 13 TO’s aren’t a ton, but NU’s defense was solid. The Wildcats employed not only their 1-3-1, but also a matchup zone and a fantastic switching man-to-man. It was evident these switching defenses caused Wisconsin trouble in the second half.

Another area which I firmly believed caused Wisconsin trouble was the boisterous Northwestern student section. They played a strong role in helping out shout the invaders from the north and making Welsh-Ryan more of a home court for NU. Now, we need to convince the students to show up every game—this team needs them. Wednesday against Chicago State is a great example. Just because it’s not a well known team, doesn’t mean you shouldn’t care about how YOUR team plays.

Let me conclude, by saying the true unsung hero tonight for NU was point guard Michael “Juice” Thompson. In 39 minutes, Thompson finished with 7 points, 7 assists, and only 1 turnover. He also played excellent defense when he was on the bottom of the 1-3-1, and fought like crazy when he was forced to defend players more than a foot taller.

Game 19: Wisconsin @ Northwestern

The Matchup: Wisconsin (12-8) @ Northwestern (11-7)

Location: Welsh-Ryan Arena (Evanston, IL)

TV: Big Ten Network (7:00 PM CT)
Radio: WGN 720 AM

Fun Fact: This will be the second sellout of Welsh-Ryan Arena this year. Two of the last three have featured Wisconsin as the opponent.

About the Game

Both teams enter this Saturday night contest with 3-5 conference records, however, their method of archiving those records have been dramatically different. Northwestern has won three of four, including wins over two ranked teams. Wisconsin has dropped five straight games since defeating Northwestern 74-45 on January 7th. Despite the lopsided score of that contest, a much closer game is expected this time around. Wisconsin’s five straight losses have been close, only one by more than 10 points and two in overtime, but the fact is they have lost. Northwestern barely edged last place Indiana, but the fact is they won.

Much like when NU played at Wisconsin, they will need to stop the Badgers front court players. NU’s young front court struggled mightily against Jon Leuer in that contest. Although he doesn’t start, Leuer still averages 9.0 points and 4.1 rebounds per game. Another Wisconsin big man who has stepped up recently is Keaton Nankivil. Nankivil, who averages 5.2 points per game, hit four threes in the Badgers 64-63 loss to Purdue. It is the ability of the Badgers to step out and hit threes which might cause NU problems. The ability of Michigan to find open shots against the 1-3-1 allowed the Wolverines to beat the ‘Cats and Indiana hit 12 threes in their narrow loss to NU Wednesday. As a team Wisconsin hits 36.5% of their threes. Jason Bohannon is regarded as the Badgers top shooter, but his fellow guard Travon Hughes actually leads the team with a 43.5% shooting percentage from behind the arc. Also of note is the Badgers top scorer Marcus Landry, who generally scores more inside, actually shoots 38.8% from three. The Wildcats collection of young centers will need to be on their game to stop this versatile big man and his front court teammates. Kyle Rowley will have a distinct size advantage, but Wisconsin is more athletic. If Luka Mirkovic can come back from his sprained ankle it would help give the Wildcats added options.

Prediction:
Players and coaches from both teams remarked how intense the game between Indiana and Northwestern was. This game between Northwestern and Wisconsin will be even more intense. Both teams need a win if they want to have any chance to making the NCAA tournament. Unfortunately for Northwestern, the invasion of the red clad fans from north of the boarder could make Welsh-Ryan a hostile place for Northwestern to play. How the Wildcats respond could make the difference. It seems in recent years the number of visiting fans has increased inside Welsh-Ryan Arena. When only 6,000 fans showed up in 2006, Northwestern won. Last year when Welsh-Ryan was sold out with 75% Badger fans, Wisconsin won. Sadly, I expect at least 65% Badger fans this year, so my initial reaction is to pick a Badger win. However, a good showing by Northwestern’s student section could counter the Badger fans as NU’s students are much closer to the floor and can make an ever bigger difference on the outcome. As a result, I have two predictions.

If NU’s student sections (note both sections) are full: Northwestern, 67 Wisconsin, 60

If NU’s student sections are relatively empty: Wisconsin, 66 Northwestern, 61

Bottom line, either way, I think we're in for a hell of a game.

Badgers Hammer 'Cats 74-45

An ugly first half put NU in a hole early. An ugly second half finished them off. I thought the first half was probably NU’s worst first half of the year as they only scored 21 points and shot just 26%. However, I now think the second half was even worse. One positive was a couple nice baskets from Davide Curletti, however, he also missed an easy shot going at the hoop and turned the ball over a few times. Perhaps, the key lesson from this entire contest is NU’s freshmen need some work—this not however a shock. Freshmen often need work and playing on the road is really tough. NU fans will see good games from their young freshmen, but it will take a little while in Big Ten play. At this point I am glad to see little positives like Curletti and Rowley making an occasional strong move.

What disturbed me most in this contest were NU’s continued shooting problems. If NU doesn’t shoot well they aren’t going to win a lot of games. Now, Wisconsin is known for their defense and the Kohl Center is a tough place to play, but shooting is becoming a problem for NU. The last time NU shot really well was against DePaul. The last four games have been very bad from behind the arc. The Big Ten Network did mention Craig Moore has made at least one three in 25 straight games, but he needs to get back to making close to 50% not making 1-of-7.

This was also NU’s worst game defensively. The 1-3-1 allowed too many open shots, NU didn’t rotate fast enough and Wisconsin penetrated the 2-3. NU didn’t play much man-to-man either which surprised me. They played some against MSU and weren’t terrible. I thought when facing a less athletic team like Wisconsin man defense could be a good weapon.

Finally, let me say Northwestern isn’t as bad as this loss shows them to be. As you can note from my pre-game predication, I didn’t expect NU to win this game, but I didn’t expect them to look like the Freshmen B squad taking on the Varsity either. The message that the type of play seen today is not acceptable needs to be conveyed to the Wildcat players. I’m sure Coach Carmody will do so, but it would be better if this message came from a player. Sometimes as a coach you can repeat this type of message ad nauseam and you might as well talk to a wall. A similar situation existed when Jitim Young was a senior and it was Young who fired up his teammates and coaches and pushed NU to its best Big Ten record in years. Does NU have a leader like Young on this year’s team? I don’t know. I hope somebody in purple has it within himself to reach down inside and convey the needed message to his teammates, because that message needs to be heard. It is time for the ‘Cats to toughen up.

Game 13: Northwestern @ Wisconsin

The Matchup: Northwestern (8-4) @ Wisconsin (11-3)

Location: Kohl Center (Madison, Wis.)

TV: Big Ten Network (7:30 PM CT)
Radio: WGN 720 AM

Fun Fact: Northwestern’s Women’s basketball squad got their first conference win against Wisconsin on Sunday 49-46. Can the men follow suit?

About the Wisconsin Game

Wisconsin currently sits atop the Big Ten. Is any anybody surprised? I doubt it. The Badgers might not have been the most heralded team coming into this year, but Coach Bo Ryan always has his team competing for the league title. Right now, the Badgers 2-0 conference record stands as the result of wins over #23 Michigan (73-61) and Penn State (65-61). Both are solid teams and it says a lot positive things for the Badgers that they pulled off those victories.

The Badgers are led by 6-7 230 lbs. forward Marcus Landry who scores 13.1 ppg and is coming off a career-high 23 against Penn State. Landry has the ability to step out hit a three, but he can also score down low. He is a tough match up for Northwestern’s zone defense. If NU chooses to go man-to-man, as they did for a portion of the MSU game, I’d like to see Jeff Ryan guard Landry. Ryan has the widest variety of defensive skills of any Wildcat and I think he would give Landry trouble.

Another Badger who might give NU’s zone major problems is guard Jason Bohannon. Bohannon is a dead-eye three point shooter who scores 11.0 ppg. He has record double figures nine times this year. NU must closeout on him better than they did against MSU’s Chris Allen or he will light up the ‘Cats in a similar manner.

Bohannon is joined in the Badger backcourt by Trevon Hughes, an excellent point guard, Hughes has 27 assists and only 7 turnovers in his team’s last nine games. He also scores 12.6 ppg. Finally, forward Joe Krabbenhoft plays defense and rebounds (6.4 ppg) for the Badgers. Statistically he’s a so-so scorer (8.0 ppg), but if NU doesn’t improve its rebounding, I expect Krabbenhoft to get a lot of second chance points.

Prediction: NU matches up much better with Wisconsin this year than in many years past. Amazingly, even in some of those years when NU seemed seriously mismatched with the Badgers, the Wildcats pulled off victories. However, all those wins were in Evanston. Nobody, save two of the best Illinois teams ever and last year’s Purdue squad, have beaten Bo Ryan’s Badgers in Kohl Center during the Big Ten season. I think NU has a chance to beat Wisconsin this year, but that chance will have to come January 31st in Evanston—not tonight. Wisconsin, 55 Northwestern, 50

Coble Hurt?

Reports have Kevin Coble as a game time decision tomorrow after getting his "bell rung" in practice during a rebounding drill. On the positive side, NU is working on rebounding.

Wisconsin: A Model for NU?

As I look forward to Northwestern at Wisconsin I've begun to wonder if Wisconsin basketball might serve as a possible model for success Northwestern basketball could follow. Though some may have forgotten, Wisconsin wasn’t always a basketball powerhouse. However, thanks to the work of Dick Bennett and Bo Ryan, the Badgers now regularly compete for the Big Ten Championship and the Final Four. Amazingly, though, Wisconsin seems to compete for these titles each year without the loads of top 100 recruits a team like Michigan State gets. As far as I can tell, Wisconsin’s success stems from three areas. First, Coach Bo Ryan generally seems to have one or two very good players he can count on for big numbers night in and night out. Second, those players are supported by a bunch of steady role players who can fit perfectly into the team’s system. These are guys who are great defenders, great rebounders, or great shooters, but are not skilled in all three areas. Finally, Wisconsin under Ryan seems to play with a winning attitude and intensity every night.

So, could Wisconsin be a model for Northwestern? Let’s look at how NU fits each of the three keys I’ve cited for Badger success. First, Northwestern does have some very good players. Kevin Coble and Craig Moore are generally reliable enough to score double digits each night. However, one or the other often seems to disappear at times during games. This is perhaps because defenses are so focused on these two players they can take one or the other out of the game. Wisconsin it seems doesn’t have this problem. Perhaps, that is because Wisconsin’s one or two top players have at times been NBAers, such as Devin Harris, that’s probably why they can complete for the Final Four. At this point, though, I don’t think NU should worry about competing for the Final Four. Besides, Wisconsin has won the Big Ten without super NBA talent. Also, to be realistic, at this point Final Fours and Big Ten Titles aren’t what NU needs to focus on. They ought to focus on finishing above .500 and making a tournament. I believe Coble and Moore have the talent to led NU to such a finish. However, if defenses are going to concentrate on them, they need to get some additional support.

Wisconsin’s ability to bring in key role players that provide support and take pressure off their stars has been extremely impressive. This year’s team has a great rebounder and defender in Joe Krabbenhoft and a great shooter in Jason Bohannon. Neither of these guys in an NBA player, but they play great supporting roles for star Marcus Landry. Past Badger teams have seen guys like Mike Kelley, Michael Flowers, and Greg Stiemsma who excelled in their roles of defense, scoring, or rebounding to support the team’s star. This might be the area where Northwestern needs the most improvement. I keep thinking Northwestern has these role players that will step up and support the team’s stars, but they are very inconsistent. Jeff Ryan, for example, could be a defensive specialist or top off the bench rebounder, but sometimes he lacks the necessary toughness. Luka Mirkovic was supposed to be a shooter, but right now he seems reluctant to take a three. He does look better around the hoop, though. Bottom line, NU needs its solid role players to consistently excel in their area of expertise.

Finally, Wisconsin is a team that absolutely brings attitude and intensity to the game every night. Think about how much Marcus Landry ticks off opposing fans. That’s not by accident. It’s because he’s an intense, physical player, who comes to the gym each night with an attitude that he’s going to do whatever it takes to beat his opponent. This guy is the best player on his team and takes this “do whatever it takes” attitude. When that happens, the other guys can’t help but take the same approach. Sadly, Northwestern doesn’t seem to have players like this. The closest might be Ivan Peljusic, but he doesn’t play enough to truly judge. Occasionally, you see this winning intensity for other Wildcats like Craig Moore and Michael Thompson, but it doesn’t show up every night. It existed against Michigan State, but wasn’t around at Penn State. That’s a shame, because if NU had brought a bit more intensity to State College I think they would have won.

The good news is if we want to use Wisconsin’s success as a model for NU it seems to me that NU has most of the physical pieces in place. However, the mental ones need some work. Kevin Coble and Craig Moore have the talent to lead NU an above .500 record and the post season, but they need help. NU’s role players have to show up every night and give their all to fill whatever role their coach asks of them. It might not be glorious, just be five minutes of great defense or intense rebounding, but those five minutes might be the key to victory. Also, all the players on NU’s roster from Moore and Coble to Marlon Day need to show up with a competitive intensity every night. Brining this intensity might not ensure wins, but it will ensure no bad losses which is an essential key to impressing selection committees and making the postseason.