Northwestern will open the 2010-11 season on Friday at Northern Illinois. The game can be heard on WGN and can seen for a fee through NUsports.com’s all-access package. Of course, that fee is setup as a monthly subscription package so you can’t just order one game. You have to remember to cancel afterwards. Note that if you’re going to pay for this service. To be honest, I think it’s beyond ridiculous a single game service option isn’t offered. Basically, because the monthly system is auto renewed it’s essentially trying to scam people because they might forget to cancel their subscription. One should also note if you plan to do this that NIU's monthly fee is $6.95 compared to NU's $9.95, so I'd go with NIU. I think the money goes to CBS anyway so it's not like you're shorting Northwestern. Of course, I'd pay $9.95 if I didn't have to worry about remembering to cancel later.
Now, on to the game…
Northern Illinois went 10-20 last year and only returns one player who made significant scoring contributions. That player is guard Xavier Silas who transferred to NIU from Colorado when NIU hired former Colorado coach Ricardo Patton. Numbers wise I’d compare Silas to Penn State’s Talor Battle. Battle’s numbers are more impressive because he’s 5-10 and Silas is 6-5, but both players score high double figures and pull down more than five rebounds a game from the their guard spot. Last year Silas averaged 19.7 and 5.3. What he doesn’t do as well as Battle is handle the ball. He had 41 assists and 60 turnovers last season. With that in mind look from NIU to lean heavily on Kyree Jones a freshman from Indiana. James drew interest from some Big Ten schools and is notable in the Chicago area as the son of former Chicago State head coach Kevin Jones. At 6-2 Jones will be bigger than Juice Thompson when going head-to-head, but Juice’s three years of starting experience against bigger Big Ten guards gives NU a major advantage here.
In the front court for NIU probably watch Lee Fisher. At 6-5 Fisher is actually one of NIU’s bigger players. He started 21 games at forward last year and averaged basically 4 points and 4 rebounds a game. He’ll need to do more if NIU wants to pull the upset. It’s also wroth noting that Fisher is bad free throw shooter if that becomes an issue in any way. With Fisher fans might also see Tim Toler a transfer from Danville Area Community College. A Junior College All-American, his 6-7 270 lbs. frame should be a good test for the bulked up Luka Mirkovic.
Bill Carmody made the comment that he might start Mike Capocci in some games depending on matchups, but in this contest I think we’ll see what I expect to be the regular starting line of Thompson, Cobb, Crawford, Shurna, and Mikrovic for NU. I will be interested to see how Capocci, Jeff Ryan, and Alex Marcotullio are used off the bench as I don’t think the exhibition game gave true sense of Coach Carmody’s sub pattern plans. If NU has defensive issues guarding Silas, I’d expect to see more of Ryan and Marcotullio who looked like NU’s best defenders last week. I also wouldn’t be shocked to see NU in the 1-3-1 Friday night. NIU was a terrible three point shooting team last year and even Silas only made 32.1% of his threes. In fact, against such a team the 1-3-1 might be the best way for NU to defend.
This is a road game and those came be tough, but as I posted earlier this week I don’t think the road should faze this NU team. I also think that despite a couple potentially quality additions, NIU still hasn’t recaptured their early-mid 90s form. It could be close early, but NU should win this one pretty easily. I predict: Northwestern, 85 Northern Illinois, 71
Showing posts with label NIU. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NIU. Show all posts
Thursday, November 11, 2010
Saturday, December 5, 2009
Changing Expectations For Northwestern
Before this season Northwestern featured the greatest expectations ever for the their basketball program. The Wildcats were expected by virtually every prognosticator and fan to make the NCAA tournament for the first time.
Those expectations changed on November 11th when it was announced star forward Kevin Coble had suffered a lisfrac fracture and was likely out for the season. When Coble was confirmed as being out for the season most people wrote the Wildcats off as a potential NCAA team.
Expectations changed again on Tuesday night when the Wildcats traveled to N.C. State and beat the Wolfpack solidly in a 65-53 win to move their record to 6-1 with three wins over BCS foes. At that point many people put the Wildcats back into the NCAA tournament discussion.
I think it is amazing how quickly the expectations from the Wildcats have changed during the last three weeks. Personally, at the start of the year I saw the Wildcats as a team that could win 20 games and would likely make the NCAA tournament. After the loss of Kevin Coble, I didn’t think NU would drop into oblivion, but I have to admit my expectation was more of 16 wins and a bid to either the NIT or the CBI.
Now, I think the question is how to expectations change with the 6-1 record? What does 6-1 mean? Should NU fans temper their expectations? Should they start booking flights to NCAA Tournament spots? These are tough questions because they involve trying to evaluate not only what Northwestern has done, but the actual talent level of the teams they have played to this point.
Looking first at the Wildcats themselves, you have to be impressed with the way Northwestern has played. The Wildcats have gotten spectacular hero performances from a number of different players in their six wins. This proven NU is a very versatile team which features scoring options from multiple positions. Michael “Juice” Thompson seems to have settled into his role as a team leader and go to clutch player. Alex Marcotullio provides some of the fire and three point range fans feared NU might have lost with the graduation of Craig Moore. Jeremy Nash has shown he can start and score and rebound at a starters level. John Shurna has shown he is a high-level athlete that can get to the hoop and finish with authority. All of these players have stepped up at times and looked like players who can take NU to never before seen success.
On the other hand, NU hasn’t been exactly prefect this season. They still lack a solid producer at the center position. On given days Kyle Rowley, Luka Mirkovic, and Davide Curletti have looked fantastic and awful. Though he isn’t a true center, I still think Curletti might be the most consistent of the three as he makes less mistakes. However, Rowley and Mirkovic probably have stronger upsides so I understand why Coach Carmody uses them more often. Another player who has moments, but who NU needs to step up a bit more is Drew Crawford. The freshman guard had 22 points against Liberty, but hasn’t shown much consistency with his outside shot. Given his clear ability to drive, I think showing more consistent three point range is a key to Crawford’s future success.
Looking at the teams NU has beat shows some positive and negative signs as well. Northern Illinois looks like a team which will compete for honors in the MAC. While the MAC isn’t exactly the Big Ten the fact NU hammered the Huskies speaks well of NU.
Iowa State looked great to me at times (better than Notre Dame), but according to the experts doesn’t exactly look like a team which is going to challenge Texas or Kansas for the Big 12 title. After the loss to NU, they then lost to Northern Iowa. Northern Iowa should probably win the Missouri Valley. Still, if Iowa State is good enough to be even a middle-tier Big 12 team, that means they’re probably better than at least 3 or 4 Big Ten teams.
N.C. State is probably a weaker team than ISU. Tracy Smith inside is a stud and Scott Wood is supposed to be a shooter, but overall N.C. State struggled with ball control and shooting. Still, N.C. State is an ACC team that NU beat on the road and I was impressed with the Wolfpack crowd. Therefore, even if N.C. State wasn’t a super team, NU at least showed the ability to win in a hostile environment.
The real benchmark to answer how could is NU at this point might be Notre Dame. Notre Dame entered the NU game ranked #23. Then again, the Fighting Irish didn’t distinguish themselves to me in that contest. I really thought Iowa State was the better of the two teams NU faced at the UIC Pavilion. However, Notre Dame did have a great player in Luke Harangody that NU handled fantastically in the post. Defensively, Luka Mirkovic played his best game at NU. Notre Dame did miss a number of open shots, but perhaps that was because of how NU frustrated the Irish with some fantastic defense.
The truth is while NU hasn’t beaten a great team yet, they’ve beaten some good teams. Even more importantly, the Wildcats have excelled defensively. They held two of the three BCS teams they beat to less than 60 points. NU has also shown significantly improved strength in rebounding this year. Even guards Jeremy Nash and Alex Marcotullio have hit the glass with authority. Considering that defense and rebounding should show up every game I think NU should be able to compete with everybody they play. Does that mean they’re a shoe-in for the NCAA Tournament? Okay, probably not. But those who wrote the ‘Cats chanes of making the Big Dance off after the loss of Coble clearly made a mistake.
Those expectations changed on November 11th when it was announced star forward Kevin Coble had suffered a lisfrac fracture and was likely out for the season. When Coble was confirmed as being out for the season most people wrote the Wildcats off as a potential NCAA team.
Expectations changed again on Tuesday night when the Wildcats traveled to N.C. State and beat the Wolfpack solidly in a 65-53 win to move their record to 6-1 with three wins over BCS foes. At that point many people put the Wildcats back into the NCAA tournament discussion.
I think it is amazing how quickly the expectations from the Wildcats have changed during the last three weeks. Personally, at the start of the year I saw the Wildcats as a team that could win 20 games and would likely make the NCAA tournament. After the loss of Kevin Coble, I didn’t think NU would drop into oblivion, but I have to admit my expectation was more of 16 wins and a bid to either the NIT or the CBI.
Now, I think the question is how to expectations change with the 6-1 record? What does 6-1 mean? Should NU fans temper their expectations? Should they start booking flights to NCAA Tournament spots? These are tough questions because they involve trying to evaluate not only what Northwestern has done, but the actual talent level of the teams they have played to this point.
Looking first at the Wildcats themselves, you have to be impressed with the way Northwestern has played. The Wildcats have gotten spectacular hero performances from a number of different players in their six wins. This proven NU is a very versatile team which features scoring options from multiple positions. Michael “Juice” Thompson seems to have settled into his role as a team leader and go to clutch player. Alex Marcotullio provides some of the fire and three point range fans feared NU might have lost with the graduation of Craig Moore. Jeremy Nash has shown he can start and score and rebound at a starters level. John Shurna has shown he is a high-level athlete that can get to the hoop and finish with authority. All of these players have stepped up at times and looked like players who can take NU to never before seen success.
On the other hand, NU hasn’t been exactly prefect this season. They still lack a solid producer at the center position. On given days Kyle Rowley, Luka Mirkovic, and Davide Curletti have looked fantastic and awful. Though he isn’t a true center, I still think Curletti might be the most consistent of the three as he makes less mistakes. However, Rowley and Mirkovic probably have stronger upsides so I understand why Coach Carmody uses them more often. Another player who has moments, but who NU needs to step up a bit more is Drew Crawford. The freshman guard had 22 points against Liberty, but hasn’t shown much consistency with his outside shot. Given his clear ability to drive, I think showing more consistent three point range is a key to Crawford’s future success.
Looking at the teams NU has beat shows some positive and negative signs as well. Northern Illinois looks like a team which will compete for honors in the MAC. While the MAC isn’t exactly the Big Ten the fact NU hammered the Huskies speaks well of NU.
Iowa State looked great to me at times (better than Notre Dame), but according to the experts doesn’t exactly look like a team which is going to challenge Texas or Kansas for the Big 12 title. After the loss to NU, they then lost to Northern Iowa. Northern Iowa should probably win the Missouri Valley. Still, if Iowa State is good enough to be even a middle-tier Big 12 team, that means they’re probably better than at least 3 or 4 Big Ten teams.
N.C. State is probably a weaker team than ISU. Tracy Smith inside is a stud and Scott Wood is supposed to be a shooter, but overall N.C. State struggled with ball control and shooting. Still, N.C. State is an ACC team that NU beat on the road and I was impressed with the Wolfpack crowd. Therefore, even if N.C. State wasn’t a super team, NU at least showed the ability to win in a hostile environment.
The real benchmark to answer how could is NU at this point might be Notre Dame. Notre Dame entered the NU game ranked #23. Then again, the Fighting Irish didn’t distinguish themselves to me in that contest. I really thought Iowa State was the better of the two teams NU faced at the UIC Pavilion. However, Notre Dame did have a great player in Luke Harangody that NU handled fantastically in the post. Defensively, Luka Mirkovic played his best game at NU. Notre Dame did miss a number of open shots, but perhaps that was because of how NU frustrated the Irish with some fantastic defense.
The truth is while NU hasn’t beaten a great team yet, they’ve beaten some good teams. Even more importantly, the Wildcats have excelled defensively. They held two of the three BCS teams they beat to less than 60 points. NU has also shown significantly improved strength in rebounding this year. Even guards Jeremy Nash and Alex Marcotullio have hit the glass with authority. Considering that defense and rebounding should show up every game I think NU should be able to compete with everybody they play. Does that mean they’re a shoe-in for the NCAA Tournament? Okay, probably not. But those who wrote the ‘Cats chanes of making the Big Dance off after the loss of Coble clearly made a mistake.
Friday, November 13, 2009
Nash Leads Wildcat Offense and Defense in 77-55 Opening Day Victory
Without a doubt Wildcat fans had many reasons to worry when tonight’s game started. When the Wildcats looked uneasy in the game’s first 5 minutes or so those fans probably continued to worry, but once NU coach Bill Carmody listened to assistant Mitch Henderson and switched from the 2-3 zone to the 1-3-1 the ‘Cats, specifically Jeremy Nash, exploded past the Northern Illinois Huskies on the way to a 22-point victory.
Northwestern wasn’t perfect in tonight’s game, but they did a lot well and it starts with Nash. The senior guard got only the second start of his career and delivered in a big way. Nash scored 20 points, grabbed 4 rebounds, and dished out a team high 3 assists. He also hit 10-of-12 free throws which is critical as I think Nash will get free throw attempts given the type of cutting and slashing game he plays. Nash also took seven three pointers. He made just two, but if he makes on average 35% of his three pointers this year he’ll continue to be a major offensive threat. I also want to mention that Nash had two dunks in tonight’s game. I feel like it has been some time since Northwestern has had a player (especially a guard) who dunked twice in a single game.
Along with Nash, Northwestern also got some great early play from Luka Mirkovic. As NU kind of felt their way through the game’s first few minutes it was the play of Luka Mirkovic that steadied NU. Mirkovic scored NU’s first two baskets (one nice turnaround jumper) and did a nice job all night of converting from the free throw line and staying active inside. In total Mirkovic scored 15 points, grabbed 5 rebounds, made 7-of-10 free throws, and didn’t turn the ball over once. I’d still like to see Mirkovic extend his range a bit more in order to really open up the offense, but he played a nice game.
One concern from Northwestern has to be three point shooting. NU will need to make threes to win big games, but tonight the ‘Cats shot just 5-of-21 from distance. Likely NU’s two best three point shooters, Michael “Juice” Thompson and John Shurna, were 2-of-9 combined with Juice making those two. Now overall Juice and Shurna both posted double digits points with 12 and 11 respectively, but they will both have to shoot better for NU to pull off the big wins fans are hoping for. One major credit that goes to Juice Thompson tonight is that he played 39 minutes and had 0 turnovers. That is simply great point guard play. I don’t know if NU has a solid backup for Juice, but as long as he stays out of foul trouble it seems NU is in great hands with Juice running the team.
Off the bench Ivan Peljusic scored 7 points, got a team high 7 rebounds, and dished out 2 assists. Peljusic might sometimes force things a little bit too much, but he has great energy and along with Shurna is NU’s best player at fighting inside for rebounds.
Also off the bench it was nice to see Kyle Rowley come in and play well enough to score 5 points and make one nice move from an and 1.
Mike Capocci also played well off the bench converting an alley-op pass from Jeff Ryan for a huge fan pleasing jam. Capocci also made 3-of-4 free throws and that works out to the same 75 % as his 9-of-12 last season. I really do think he might be a guy NU can use from the line when teams want to foul.
News and Notes: The NU students did a great job of showing up and supporting the 'Cats tonight....Other than the Ryan to Capocci alley-op the best play of the night might have been John Shurna grabbing a rebound and dribbling coast to coast for a layup and a foul….Shortly after a nice steal and throwing that alley-op Jeff Ryan went down with an injury which appeared to be related to his leg or knee….Northwestern made 34 free throws a high for a Bill Carmody team….Northwestern’s women’s basketball team scored an impressive season opening road victory with a win at Toledo 73-64….Junior Amy Jaeschke scored 27 points and grabbed 8 rebounds in that contest.
Northwestern wasn’t perfect in tonight’s game, but they did a lot well and it starts with Nash. The senior guard got only the second start of his career and delivered in a big way. Nash scored 20 points, grabbed 4 rebounds, and dished out a team high 3 assists. He also hit 10-of-12 free throws which is critical as I think Nash will get free throw attempts given the type of cutting and slashing game he plays. Nash also took seven three pointers. He made just two, but if he makes on average 35% of his three pointers this year he’ll continue to be a major offensive threat. I also want to mention that Nash had two dunks in tonight’s game. I feel like it has been some time since Northwestern has had a player (especially a guard) who dunked twice in a single game.
Along with Nash, Northwestern also got some great early play from Luka Mirkovic. As NU kind of felt their way through the game’s first few minutes it was the play of Luka Mirkovic that steadied NU. Mirkovic scored NU’s first two baskets (one nice turnaround jumper) and did a nice job all night of converting from the free throw line and staying active inside. In total Mirkovic scored 15 points, grabbed 5 rebounds, made 7-of-10 free throws, and didn’t turn the ball over once. I’d still like to see Mirkovic extend his range a bit more in order to really open up the offense, but he played a nice game.
One concern from Northwestern has to be three point shooting. NU will need to make threes to win big games, but tonight the ‘Cats shot just 5-of-21 from distance. Likely NU’s two best three point shooters, Michael “Juice” Thompson and John Shurna, were 2-of-9 combined with Juice making those two. Now overall Juice and Shurna both posted double digits points with 12 and 11 respectively, but they will both have to shoot better for NU to pull off the big wins fans are hoping for. One major credit that goes to Juice Thompson tonight is that he played 39 minutes and had 0 turnovers. That is simply great point guard play. I don’t know if NU has a solid backup for Juice, but as long as he stays out of foul trouble it seems NU is in great hands with Juice running the team.
Off the bench Ivan Peljusic scored 7 points, got a team high 7 rebounds, and dished out 2 assists. Peljusic might sometimes force things a little bit too much, but he has great energy and along with Shurna is NU’s best player at fighting inside for rebounds.
Also off the bench it was nice to see Kyle Rowley come in and play well enough to score 5 points and make one nice move from an and 1.
Mike Capocci also played well off the bench converting an alley-op pass from Jeff Ryan for a huge fan pleasing jam. Capocci also made 3-of-4 free throws and that works out to the same 75 % as his 9-of-12 last season. I really do think he might be a guy NU can use from the line when teams want to foul.
News and Notes: The NU students did a great job of showing up and supporting the 'Cats tonight....Other than the Ryan to Capocci alley-op the best play of the night might have been John Shurna grabbing a rebound and dribbling coast to coast for a layup and a foul….Shortly after a nice steal and throwing that alley-op Jeff Ryan went down with an injury which appeared to be related to his leg or knee….Northwestern made 34 free throws a high for a Bill Carmody team….Northwestern’s women’s basketball team scored an impressive season opening road victory with a win at Toledo 73-64….Junior Amy Jaeschke scored 27 points and grabbed 8 rebounds in that contest.
Thursday, November 12, 2009
Game 1: Northern Illinois @ Northwestern
The Matchup: Northern Illinois (0-0) @ Northwestern (0-0)
Location: Welsh-Ryan Arena (Evanston, IL)
TV: www.bigtennetwork.com for $2.99 (7:00PM November 13th)
Radio: WYLL-AM 1160
Fun Fact: Between the two teams 18 players in this game played high school basketball in the state of Illinois
The Game: Many have predicated this will be THE year for Northwestern basket ball and we’re going to see early on how accurate those predictions are early on this year. In the non-conference season NU plays name schools Butler, Notre Dame, and Stanford. While those games have gotten most of the preseason hype, this opener against Northern Illinois should not be taken lightly. The Huskies feature a potent trio of guards lead by second team all-MAC selection Darion “Jake” Anderson who averaged 16.9ppg and 5.4rpg last season. When comparing him to Big Ten foes he is probably similar to Penn State’s Talor Battle in terms of how much of a stat-sheet stuffer he is. Along with Anderson the Huskies will use sophomore Mike DiNunno and junior transfer Xavier Sails in a three guard backcourt. DiNunno was a member of the MAC all freshman team for his 12.3ppg and 2.62apg. He was made almost 2 threes per-game on average. If NU plays 1-3-1 it’ll be DiNunno who NIU tries to camp out in the corner. Sails is a transfer from the University of Colorado where he played for Huskies coach Ricardo Patton before Patton was fired. In two years as a Buffalo Sails averaged 10.9ppg. These guys will test NU’s defense for sure. They might even provide the chance for Jeff Ryan and Jeremy Nash to play some man-to-man defense. Of course, NIU’s guards have to defend NU as well. The advantage NIU has is that they’ve had all preseason to prep for NU’s Princeton Offense. Of course, NU runs it much better than NIU’s scout team and is more athletic.
NU’s biggest advantage in this game will be in the front court. Other than center Sean Kowal who lead the MAC with a .551 field goal percentage, NIU doesn’t really have a serious scoring threat in the front court. If NU uses Luka Mirkovic and Davide Curletti to keep the ball away from Kowal NIU will become very perimeter oriented and it may open up some chances for NU to pressure passing lanes and get turnovers. Along with Kowal, forward Najul Ervin did show flashes on offense for NIU, but even without Kevin Coble I like NU’s front court of John Shurna, Mirkovic and either Ivan Peljusic or Davide Curletti in this matchup. Part of the reason is that other than the 6-11 Kowal NIU doesn’t have a player who stands above 6-7. Given that NU will start a guard in Drew Crawford who is 6-5 and use a reserve point guard in Ryan that is 6-6 plus, NU should be able to control the boards. Actually, I think this will be an advantage NU has in many games this season.
Prediction: NIU has some nice guards, but NU can shoot from multiple spots on the floor and it will be tough for NIU’s forwards to defend the athletic skill and size of Shurna. The real question, though, is how will Kevin Coble’s injury impact NU’s play? NU actually will probably get better on defense without Coble, but they will not have their best scorer and a reliable rebounder. Still, I think NU can scrape together enough to win this game. Often when a star goes down a team rallies—at least initially. I think NU plays slow and gets enough scoring from Shurna, Thompson, and the bench to win a close and low scoring battle. Northwestern, 58 Northern Illinois, 52
Location: Welsh-Ryan Arena (Evanston, IL)
TV: www.bigtennetwork.com for $2.99 (7:00PM November 13th)
Radio: WYLL-AM 1160
Fun Fact: Between the two teams 18 players in this game played high school basketball in the state of Illinois
The Game: Many have predicated this will be THE year for Northwestern basket ball and we’re going to see early on how accurate those predictions are early on this year. In the non-conference season NU plays name schools Butler, Notre Dame, and Stanford. While those games have gotten most of the preseason hype, this opener against Northern Illinois should not be taken lightly. The Huskies feature a potent trio of guards lead by second team all-MAC selection Darion “Jake” Anderson who averaged 16.9ppg and 5.4rpg last season. When comparing him to Big Ten foes he is probably similar to Penn State’s Talor Battle in terms of how much of a stat-sheet stuffer he is. Along with Anderson the Huskies will use sophomore Mike DiNunno and junior transfer Xavier Sails in a three guard backcourt. DiNunno was a member of the MAC all freshman team for his 12.3ppg and 2.62apg. He was made almost 2 threes per-game on average. If NU plays 1-3-1 it’ll be DiNunno who NIU tries to camp out in the corner. Sails is a transfer from the University of Colorado where he played for Huskies coach Ricardo Patton before Patton was fired. In two years as a Buffalo Sails averaged 10.9ppg. These guys will test NU’s defense for sure. They might even provide the chance for Jeff Ryan and Jeremy Nash to play some man-to-man defense. Of course, NIU’s guards have to defend NU as well. The advantage NIU has is that they’ve had all preseason to prep for NU’s Princeton Offense. Of course, NU runs it much better than NIU’s scout team and is more athletic.
NU’s biggest advantage in this game will be in the front court. Other than center Sean Kowal who lead the MAC with a .551 field goal percentage, NIU doesn’t really have a serious scoring threat in the front court. If NU uses Luka Mirkovic and Davide Curletti to keep the ball away from Kowal NIU will become very perimeter oriented and it may open up some chances for NU to pressure passing lanes and get turnovers. Along with Kowal, forward Najul Ervin did show flashes on offense for NIU, but even without Kevin Coble I like NU’s front court of John Shurna, Mirkovic and either Ivan Peljusic or Davide Curletti in this matchup. Part of the reason is that other than the 6-11 Kowal NIU doesn’t have a player who stands above 6-7. Given that NU will start a guard in Drew Crawford who is 6-5 and use a reserve point guard in Ryan that is 6-6 plus, NU should be able to control the boards. Actually, I think this will be an advantage NU has in many games this season.
Prediction: NIU has some nice guards, but NU can shoot from multiple spots on the floor and it will be tough for NIU’s forwards to defend the athletic skill and size of Shurna. The real question, though, is how will Kevin Coble’s injury impact NU’s play? NU actually will probably get better on defense without Coble, but they will not have their best scorer and a reliable rebounder. Still, I think NU can scrape together enough to win this game. Often when a star goes down a team rallies—at least initially. I think NU plays slow and gets enough scoring from Shurna, Thompson, and the bench to win a close and low scoring battle. Northwestern, 58 Northern Illinois, 52
Tuesday, November 10, 2009
Men’s Basketball Season Preview: Is this NU’s Year?
NU Tips Off The 2009-10 Season Friday Night
Northwestern is scheduled to play at least 32 games this season including the regular season and at least the first round of the Big Ten Tournament. In order to make the NCAA Tournament for the first time, I believe Northwestern must win at least 20 total games. While not great, I believe that with a 20-12 minimum record that NU’s RPI will be high enough the Wildcats could make the NCAA Tournament as a #12 seed. I also believe that should the Wildcats make the tournament they would have a decent chance to pull an upset based on the unorthodox Princeton-style offense they run. So will the Wildcats get to that magical 20-win plateau? I believe the answer is yes.
In order reach that spot with an RPI which is solid enough to make the NCAAs, it is my opinion NU must post at least an 11-2 record in their 13 non-conference games and at least a 9-10 record in Big Ten games including the Big Ten Tournament. Also, while NU can lose to either Butler or Notre Dame they cannot lose to both of their marquee non-conference opponents. The Wildcats need to beat at least one of those teams to ensure a strong RPI when they enter the Big Ten season. Right now I believe NU has a better shot to win in Welsh-Ryan against Butler than they do playing at a neutral site against Notre Dame. NU’s other likely non-conference loss is on the road in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge against N.C. State. Certainly N.C. State is not dramatically better than NU (the Wildcats might actually have the better overall roster), but I believe the long trip and short turnaround after the end of the Chicago Invitational Challenge will not help the ‘Cats. Overall in non-conference play, though, I do expect the ‘Cats to post that 11-2 record and will be very disappointed if they finish worse than 10-3.
As far as the Big Ten season, NU has their word cut out for them. The Big Ten returns every all-conference player from the first team and features three teams I see as legit final four contenders in Michigan State, Purdue, and Ohio State. The Big Ten also has multiple first round caliber NBA players with guys like Evan Turner, Manny Harris, and Raymar Morgan. In some ways this is the worst possible year for NU to be as good as they’ve ever been because many other teams are significantly above average as well. What gives me hope NU can at least split the league season is the ‘Cats came with in a game of doing so last year. Actually, if not for three epic collapses they would have added wins over Penn State, Purdue, and Illinois. The Illinois loss was about the worst thing I’ve ever seen on a basketball court (and I saw NU score 6-points in a half once), but other than a less than spectacular effort the very next game against a beatable Michigan team, NU rebounded very well from that disaster. That’s a credit to NU’s players and coaches, but this year NU can’t afford such disasters. NU needs to strive to play at the level they played at in the wins on the road last year against Michigan State and Purdue at all times. They need to make sure a win is a win.
For NU to reach that level they need to find a consistent outside shooter to replace Craig Moore. Moore didn’t have his best games in those to wins (which should give NU fans hope), but he did knock down big shots in each. His shot against MSU when the Spartans started to cut the lead might have been the game’s biggest shot. Obviously, Kevin Coble is a candidate to take of Moore’s role as the go to guy, but teams will focus on Coble and he can’t lead NU alone. Michael “Juice” Thompson will provide outside shooting, but I believe NU’s most important player is John Shurna. Shurna showed last year that he is a streaky, but effective when on, outside shooter. He also showed he was probably NU’s best offensive rebounder and shot blocker. Those skills can change a game and a Shurna who is one year better at his overall game could become NU’s best player.
The other guy NU fans are looking to is freshman guard Drew Crawford. If Crawford scores double figures that’ll be a great lift for NU, but what I think he must do to help NU win is play defense and rebound. Crawford is a better scoring threat than Jeremy Nash, Mike Capocci, or Jeff Ryan, but if he is really going to take minutes away from those upper classmen than he has to be able to play defense the way Nash and Ryan do and rebound like Capocci can. Nash has the ability to change games at the top of NU’s 1-3-1 and either he or Crawford will have do so if the ‘Cats want to start a new collection of upsets that match last seasons run.
NU’s deepest, but really unproven, spot is center. The Wildcats have four players that could play this position. Kyle Rowley got the majority of the starts last season and at 7-0 280 pounds he is among the biggest players in the Big Ten. If Rowley is just a tab bit more comfortable on offense and more aggressive on defense he could become a force inside. Right now, Luke Mirkovic is getting the start at center because Rowley is out with an injury. Mirkovic is a good passer (essential for a Princeton-style center), but I’d like to see him become more comfortable shooting. Mirkovic had flashes as a shooter last year, but a consistent three point shot from Mirkovic would be nearly impossible to defend. NU’s other centers are Davide Curletti and Ivan Peljusic. Curletti is a force defensively and might offer NU somebody who can shot from the five. Peljusic is another plus-level athlete that if he can cut down on turnovers could really help NU off the bench.
Without a doubt this is Bill Carmody’s most talented NU team, and while the talent at NU is continuing to get better, I think Kevin Coble will be a tough loss at the end of this season. Therefore, I believe this is a critical year for Northwestern and Carmody. The good news is Coble is the type of player who can carry a team and if NU gets close to the dance in his senior year, which they will, I think he’ll have one of his 30-plus nights and push them over the top. I look for this in the Big Ten Tournament. Therefore, I say NU makes the NCAAs this year by winning 20 games in the regular season plus a Big Ten Tournament game for a record of 21-12 and a #12-seed.
Note: Expect a preview of the NIU game to be posted either tomorrow night or Thursday. An early preview is online at Carmody Court check out this link: http://carmodycourt.blogspot.com/
Saturday, November 7, 2009
Big In-State Weekend Coming Up For NU Sports
Thanks to some solid defense and for the first time this season a couple breaks Northwestern pulled an epic upset on Saturday afternoon in Iowa City by beating the #4 ranked Hawkeyes 17-10. In a game which for a large part was a battle of backup quarterbacks, Northwestern got just enough offense from Dan Persa to score the only offensive touchdown in the final 59 minutes of the game. Iowa actually had 41 more total yards than Northwestern, but the Wildcats capitalized with 14 points off turnovers to secure bowl eligibility for the third straight year. Despite not getting invited to a bowl in 2007 and not yet officially clinching a birth for this year—this is a huge accomplishment for the program and for Pat Fitzgerald as head coach. Now the ‘Cats are on a mission to post enough wins to enough wins to avoid spending the Holiday season in Detroit at the Motor City Bowl. Can NU do so? Well, that will be a challenge that starts this weekend at Illinois and is just one of two major events for Wildcat Nation this weekend in the state.
Before the ‘Cats march down to Champaign to take on the Illini, Northern Illinois’s men’s basketball squad will march into Welsh-Ryan Arena to take on Coach Bill Carmody’s team. With the NU hoops squad getting loads of national media attention already this year, the hoop squad’s game against NIU will be just as important as the football game against the Illini. Considering the fickle nature of the media and NU fans, a loss to NIU in basketball would be a very poor way to start the season. Much of the good will Coach Carmody’s ‘Cats have going into this year will evaporate if the ‘Cats fail to show up versus a talented, but inferior foe in NIU. That would be very bad as NU’s next basketball game is home against #10 Butler and the ‘Cats will need solid fan support in Welsh-Ryan to pull that upset.
On the other side of things, NU’s football squad and ‘Cat fans obviously want the win versus U of I in football, and I think we can agree Illinois isn’t looking like the pushover they were early in the year anymore. Also, you have to consider that today NU won against Iowa with an injured Mike Kafka and Dan Persa got hurt in the game as well. If Persa is out for the Ilini and Kafka isn’t healthy enough to run (as he wasn’t today), that’ll mean NU is super one dimensional against Illinois unless a special package is installed for WR Jeremy Ebert as the ‘Cats running QB. NU can beat the Illini even if they don’t have a mobile QB, but it’ll really help the ‘Cats if Kafka is 100% or Persa is able to both pass and throw as he looked like he was before his injury today.
Bottom line for NU fans, both these games are important and both will be tough. Let’s get out and support both teams. I’d love to see Welsh-Ryan Arena get at least 4,500-5,000 fans on Friday night and I assume that, as always, a nice NU crowd will travel to Memorial Stadium on Saturday. A win on Friday would be a great start to the 2009-10 basketball season and a win on Saturday would put the 2009 football season in a position to end in a very special way. With as tight as the middle of the Big Ten is this year a number of bowls have to at least be considering the ‘Cats and getting to 7 wins would help. Basketball wise, many have talked about how NU needs a strong RPI to make the NCAA tournament and that’s true. Along the same lines, the other thing NU needs is to avoid bad losses such as dropping a home game to NIU.
Before the ‘Cats march down to Champaign to take on the Illini, Northern Illinois’s men’s basketball squad will march into Welsh-Ryan Arena to take on Coach Bill Carmody’s team. With the NU hoops squad getting loads of national media attention already this year, the hoop squad’s game against NIU will be just as important as the football game against the Illini. Considering the fickle nature of the media and NU fans, a loss to NIU in basketball would be a very poor way to start the season. Much of the good will Coach Carmody’s ‘Cats have going into this year will evaporate if the ‘Cats fail to show up versus a talented, but inferior foe in NIU. That would be very bad as NU’s next basketball game is home against #10 Butler and the ‘Cats will need solid fan support in Welsh-Ryan to pull that upset.
On the other side of things, NU’s football squad and ‘Cat fans obviously want the win versus U of I in football, and I think we can agree Illinois isn’t looking like the pushover they were early in the year anymore. Also, you have to consider that today NU won against Iowa with an injured Mike Kafka and Dan Persa got hurt in the game as well. If Persa is out for the Ilini and Kafka isn’t healthy enough to run (as he wasn’t today), that’ll mean NU is super one dimensional against Illinois unless a special package is installed for WR Jeremy Ebert as the ‘Cats running QB. NU can beat the Illini even if they don’t have a mobile QB, but it’ll really help the ‘Cats if Kafka is 100% or Persa is able to both pass and throw as he looked like he was before his injury today.
Bottom line for NU fans, both these games are important and both will be tough. Let’s get out and support both teams. I’d love to see Welsh-Ryan Arena get at least 4,500-5,000 fans on Friday night and I assume that, as always, a nice NU crowd will travel to Memorial Stadium on Saturday. A win on Friday would be a great start to the 2009-10 basketball season and a win on Saturday would put the 2009 football season in a position to end in a very special way. With as tight as the middle of the Big Ten is this year a number of bowls have to at least be considering the ‘Cats and getting to 7 wins would help. Basketball wise, many have talked about how NU needs a strong RPI to make the NCAA tournament and that’s true. Along the same lines, the other thing NU needs is to avoid bad losses such as dropping a home game to NIU.
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