Same Old Story

This game played out like seemingly countless games during the regular season. It’s a sad story, but it’s the true story of this team. They’re close, but it doesn’t seem like they’re close enough. Maybe being in seventh place in the Big Ten will count for something when Selection Sunday rolls around, but the official rule is the committee can’t consider conference affiliation. Still, I tend to think the seventh place Big Ten is a lot better than some second place team in a lot of mid-majors.

Honestly, Northwestern probably isn’t an NCAA Tournament and I’ve said that before, but they’re about as a good as a team can be without being an NCAA Tournament team and that hurts a lot. I mean they’re basically two plays away. If the proper call is made when Drew Crawford was fouled at Michigan or if Dave Sobolewski hits his runner at the end of this game then the Wildcats are in the NCAA Tournament. Unfortunately, those events didn’t go NU’s way and now things look pretty bleak.

A lot of people will want to blame Bill Carmody for this loss because that’s just what Northwestern fans do, but the fact is the two guys who deserve blame today are John Shurna and Dave Sobolewski. Shurna missed two front ends of 1-and-1 foul shots when the ‘Cats could have extended three point leads to five point leads and Sobolewski looked scared all day leaving shots short against the Gopher pressure all night. I’d also add that since he missed some early shots that Drew Crawford did nothing, but was anyone really surprised by that once his first shot didn’t go down?

Basically, Shurna, Crawford, and Sobolewski choked away this game. Some will say that’s too mean, but it’s a fact. When you front rim as many shots at they did that’s the sign of a choke. That right there tells you they don’t deserve to be an NCAA team. Also, I can’t say Bill Carmody is really blameless because the only player on the NU roster who has proven to actually have some guts is Alex Marcotullio and Carmody sat him for the game’s key moments.

JerShon Cobb did step up and basically he’s now NU’s only NCAA hope. Somehow, NU needs to hope that the committee decides that Cobb would have made a difference in enough losses that NU is better than their record, but the truth is NU is what their record says. After all, Cobb played great today and NU still couldn’t win.

I don’t know what to think right now in terms of looking at a possible NIT berth. I mean odds are NU will be one of the top-4 NIT seeds. That’s huge because the odds are that the first game will be one which NU isn’t actually jacked up for because of the disappointment of not making the NCAAs. At least if in round 1 NU can get an easy win maybe by round two they’ll realize that basketball is basketball and at least they’re playing for something. The Big Ten should get at least three teams in the NIT and so I expect that NIT to be pretty competitive, but if NU focuses they’ll have a great shot because they’ll have home court advantage all the way to NYC.

As for the NCAA Tournament, I’d say NU still has a 10% chance of making it, but I hope that’s not enough for people to actually want to have cameras in Evanston on Sunday. All that’s going to do is make the team more depressed and that’s not what we want right now. We need to get focused on the NIT and a chance to actually win a championship. It’s not the title people want to play for, but for Northwestern it would mean something.

The Big Ten Tournament or Two Wins From The Big Dance

Here we are on March 7th and Northwestern is on the precipice of the NCAA Tournament. I’ll admit I had my doubts about this team and coaching staff, but they’ve overcome so much that you can’t help but admire what they’ve accomplished. This has been one of the most impressive displays of perseverance I’ve seen and I’ve heard that perseverance is the main ingredient to make fantasy into reality. I think most assumed that if Northwestern were ever to make the NCAA Tournament it would be with some type of magical nearly perfect season where everything went right. Instead, it seems nearly everything has gone wrong at times this year and the ‘Cats are still on the verge of the Big Dance. I break down the odds this way:

Loss to Minnesota…10% chance of making the Dance
Win vs Minnesota…60% chance of the making the Dance
Win vs Minnesota and Michigan…We’re In!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Now how likely is that third outcome? Well, it’s probably something of a 50/50 proposition. I think Northwestern will beat Michigan if they get a third chance at the Maize and Blue. My biggest fear is a let down in the Minnesota game. It just seems like one of those games where the Gophers could out-athlete NU and steal a victory. The good news is that the Gophers might not have 6-11 center Ralph Sampson III due to a knee injury and if he can’t go that takes at least one big guy off the court. The other major advantage NU has is that fact that Minnesota isn’t a great three point shooting team. Julian Welch is pretty good, but to me he looks like he’s got kind of a low/slow release if NU can get out on him maybe they force him to alter his shot or put the ball on the floor and try to shoot off the dribble. Other than Welch, the Gopher shooters aren’t scary. What is scary is their athletic skill. Everyone talks about Rodney Williams because he gets highlight film dunks, but Austin and Andre Hollins are good athletes as well. They’ll be very tough guards for NU in man-to-man which is why I’m hoping to see the ‘Cats not worry too much about just springing the 1-3-1 on the Gophers. Without great shooters and great ball handlers the Gophers are just the type of team that zone was created to beat (as long as Rodney Williams doesn’t come flying in from nowhere and grab every rebound).

On offense for NU look for the Wildcats to attack the Gophers with hopefully the same balance they’ve shown recently. John Shurna is the leader, but I’d love to see another big game from Drew Crawford and continued solid efforts by JerShon Cobb, Alex Marcotullio, and Reggie Hearn. Also, if Davide Curletti rebounds like he did vs Iowa then he’ll be great help vs the athletic Gophers.

For years I’ve joked that Northwestern basketball has been paying off karma at a vastly accelerated and/or inflated rate, but I’d like to think it’s finally been paid off. The ‘Cats enter the Big Ten Tournament as ready to go as they’ve been all season missing only Luka Mirkovic from the regular rotation. That’s big and those returning players might be just what NU needs to push them over the top. I predict: Northwestern, 65 Minnesota, 60

Close Again, but Still Nothing

I don’t really know what to say right now. Another good effort, but the bottom line is Northwestern just can’t reach the summit when it comes to postseason sports in both men’s basketball and football. I know people will talk about how this was a great effort, and it was, but it means nothing and I can’t pretend like it does. The loss is a loss. No such thing as a good loss exists which means the NIT selection committee is just going to see Northwestern as an 18-13 team with really no good wins. That means the odds are NU is going to play a road game in the NIT now, and because they stink outside of Evanston they’ll likely lose it. So while a 67-61 loss to the #1 team in the country (especially playing short handed) is a nice accomplishment, it’s not an accomplishment that’s really worth anything other than another number of the record’s right hand side. It’s like the Outback Bowl two years ago, everybody was so proud of that game, but the bottom line is it was a loss. I don’t care how great the game was; we’ve mastered losing close games. Let’s work on winning them.

What went well today? John Shurna was great. He scored 23 points and really came back from a major sub-par effort against Minnesota. I wish he would have tried score in the post late in regulation instead of passing to ice cold Drew Crawford and I think he forced a few shots in OT, but overall I’d say Shurna was NU’s best player today. Crawford did alright as well, but the fact his jump shot has totally deserted him makes him a less effective player. He did do a decent job of taking the ball to the hoop, but his preference for finger rolls and fade-a-aways made him miss a number of looks I thought he could/should have finished. In the end, those might have been the difference in the game. He did hit all his free throws and actually NU’s free throw shooting today was fantastic. If NU had won in regulation it would have been the reason. I thought NU also did play decent defense, but the fact is Jared Sullinger is just a monster compared to anybody NU has. No matter how well Luka Mirkovic, Davide Curletti, or John Shurna played him, the odds were they were going to foul him at some point. In overtime, the refs seemed to become more willing to call those fouls and that hurt the ‘Cats as well.

Juice Thompson wasn’t as good today as yesterday, but OSU’s Aaron Craft is a great defender and he made Thompson have to really work for shots that yesterday he could have got with ease. NU also didn’t really get the same bench contribution today as yesterday, but I think we all knew that Ohio State was a tough game for Nick Fruendt. Maybe having JerShon Cobb and Mike Capocci might have pushed NU over the top in this one, but that’s worthless speculation.

In the end, NU played well, but the better team won and the game’s best player made the biggest difference. It was simply a surprise that most of that difference came at the free throw line and not in the post where NU actually did okay on Sullinger. If Northwestern ever wants to truly compete with good teams, they will have to improve their post players. Like I said, Mirkovic and Curletti did okay, but Sullinger still got way more rebounds and scored way more points. Also, Mirkovic almost cost NU a chance to win even earlier in OT with a silly technical foul because he couldn’t control his emotions. Thankfully, the OSU player missed both shots the so the foul didn’t really matter in terms of points, but it did send Mirkovic to the bench which might have made a difference since then the smaller Shurna had to guard Sullinger.

The bottom line is this is another terribly disappointing loss for Northwestern basketball. It’s the kind of loss that makes you wonder if making the tournament will ever be possible. NU actually caught a few breaks today such as an Alex Marcotullio three counting when it shouldn’t have and OSU shooting sub-par, but is wasn’t enough. Seemingly, nothing ever is.

Juice =’s Record Setter and Second Chance at OSU

Juice Thompson has accomplished a lot in his Northwestern career. Even before this season started his name was all over the NU record book during this year he’s simply added to it. Thanks to his 35 points today in round 1 of the Big Ten Tournament, Juice is now in the Big Ten record book as those 35 points bested the mark of 33 points set by Purdue’s Brian Cardinal in 1999 for the Big Ten Tournament’s single game scoring record. Juice and the ‘Cats now get to face #1 Ohio State tomorrow at 11 AM Central time for a shot at their first ever trip to the Big Ten semi-finals. Though winning that game is unlikely, one has to remember that in a similar game last year it took a 40-footer from OSU star Evan Turner to top Michigan. Also, given how well NU played OSU this season, I don’t think a win is impossible.
Certainly, an effort like Juice gave today would help as would some support from his teammates.

In today’s game Northwestern as team for the second game in a row played very good defense. Minnesota shot just 37.5% overall and just 33% from three. Also, NU did a very good job making it tough for Minnesota to get open looks for three. The ‘Cat defenders were in the face of Blake Hoffarber and the other Gopher guards for a good portion of the afternoon. Really, when Minnesota made open threes they were off of offensive rebounds. That’s something NU will need to prevent versus Ohio State, but Minnesota didn’t get many, so there is some model of how to do it. NU got outrebounded 40 to 30 by Minnesota, but with only five turnovers the ‘Cats were able to maximize each possession. Since NU will likely burn 30-plus seconds off the shot clock during each possession tomorrow, that ball control will remain critical.

Obviously, with 35 points, today was the Juice Thompson show, but you have to give some credit to Alex Marcotullio, Nick Fruendt, and Drew Crawford who helped Juice out on a day with John Shurna was held to just 2 points on 1-of-5 shooting. Marcotullio scored 13 points and made 5-of-8 shots overall and 2-of-5 from three. He once again played solid defense and tied Drew Crawford for the second highest Wildcat total with 6 rebounds. I think Marcotullio’s increased comfort in driving the ball has actually helped his shooting as teams are starting to notice he’ll finish at the rim and might have to give him a little space on the outside. Nick Fruendt played heavier minutes today than he had all year because of the injuries to Mike Capocci and JerShon Cobb. In those minutes he dropped in 7 points on 3-of-5 shooting and didn’t look tentative at all on the court. That’s huge for a guy who had only played in 16 games coming into today. Odds are Cobb and Capocci won’t be back tomorrow, so Nick is going to get a shot to really test his comfort and confidence when he lines up across from Buckeye swingman William Buford.

I also have to give credit to Drew Crawford who was second on the team with 15 points and did what I’ve been asking for a while and took the ball to basket. As a result, he scored 6 of his points from the free throw line and several of those came at key times. As was stated on the ESPN2 broadcast, Crawford looks good when he shoots threes. Personally, I wouldn’t be surprised that if NU does upset Ohio State the reason is Crawford gets hot and knocks in eight or nine threes, but when the shots aren’t falling from deep for Drew, he can still make a difference with his athletic skill if he attacks the basket.

Inside, NU didn’t get a ton of points or rebounds from Luka Mirkovic or Davide Curletti, but both battled enough to keep the rebounding gap respectable. John Shurna helped out with 7 boards and I never truly thought Minnesota’s athlete advantage took over. While I’d of course like to see more points from the Wildcat front court, containing the opposing athletes is just as important tomorrow.
The other thing that is important tomorrow is more consistency from NU behind the arc. Sure, the ‘Cats made nine threes, but that was on 31 tries. That’s 29% three point shooting. That won’t get it done against Ohio State. If NU is going to beat OSU they need to have a hot shooting night (or midday). If you look at NU’s 58-57 loss to Ohio State earlier this year, while NU did play well in almost every phase of the game, they didn’t shoot the ball well that day either. Ohio State is a great basketball team and the odds of NU beating them aren’t good, but as I’ve said before, Northwestern is a team I’ve seen get white-hot from behind the arc, but I haven’t seen that in a while. If they are to advance in the Big Ten Tournament, that white-hot shooting NU team needs to reappear. That means John Shurna and Drew Crawford need to do much much more than make one total three and Juice needs to pretty much repeat his efforts as do Marcotullio and Fruendt. All that happening will be tough, but at least with NU now moving to 18-12, I think they’re surly in the NIT and have a case for a home date. Of course, that case and the dream of making the Big tournament would improve with a victory tomorrow.

Win or Go, Well, Not Home, but Away in the NIT

What’s at stake for Northwestern on Thursday? Well, I’m guessing an NIT home game. NU’s 17-12 record combined with a strong Big Ten puts them probably right at the borderline on the middle of the NIT. Right now, NU is probably a 5-seed or a 6-seed, but I think with a win over a Minnesota team that is also likely destined to play in the NIT would give NU a strong case for a home game. The game would give NU a two out of three advantage over Minnesota for the year and place the Wildcats at a respectable 5-4 in their last nine games. If they drop a game on Friday to Ohio State, NU will still be 5-5 in their last ten, which while not an official criteria, is still something committees look at when judging teams.

NU just beat Minnesota in the season’s last game, but of course that game was in Evanston at Welsh-Ryan Arena where NU is much better than anywhere else (with the exception of Iowa City, Iowa). Now, NU has to go into Conseco Fieldhouse to try to top the Gophers. Conseco will be pretty empty when these two teams play so the crowd won’t be a factor, but for NU, which is a shooting team, playing in a new environment means adjusting to shooting in that new environment quickly.

Once again, Minnesota’s advantage is the fact they have three monsters inside. Trevor Mbawke at 13.7ppg and 10.5rpg is the headliner, but Ralph Sampson III and Colton Iverson both have size and the ability to rebound and score as well. Sampson even has displayed a nice touch on mid-range jump shots which sometimes presents a matchup problem. NU’s Luka Mirkovic was terrible against Minnesota last week, but thankfully Davide Curletti made up for Luka’s poor play. I think for NU to win on Thursday, though, both will need to play well. Sure, Curletti has been great of late, but Minnesota might shoot better than they have been of late and if that happens, NU can’t give up any easy baskets to along with made Gopher threes. Therefore, both Curletti and Mirkovic need to be tough on the defensive glass.

Minnesota’s Blake Hoffarber is one of the Big Ten’s best shooters, but he was pretty much locked down by Alex Marcotullio and Juice Thompson when the teams met in Evanston. If that happens again I think NU will win the game for sure, but you can bet Tubby Smith will be trying to find ways to get his senior guard open looks. I expect Hoffarber to run off a lot of screens and given NU’s trouble with fighting through screens that does scare me. It is critical that the Wildcat defense be aggressive and active and that they communicate with each other at all times. Whoever has Hoffarber can’t let him go, because if they do it’ll be Gopher threes all over the place.

On offense for Northwestern everyone is pretty much hoping the eight days off since the last game continues John Shurna’s recovery. Shurna is so good when 100% that early in the year one would have said he had an outside shot at Big Ten Player of the Year. He might still have a shot next year if he’s healthy, but he probably isn’t 100% yet. Still, if Shurna is closer to 100% his ability to not only shoot, but to drive on a bigger player and get fouled could allow for NU to get some easy points. I also expect to see a good game from Drew Crawford. Crawford struggled towards the end of the regular season, but he rarely has extended slumps and I would be shocked if he didn’t post a decent game Thursday. I just hope that he doesn’t settle too much for jump shots and that he tries to make things happen at the hoop (and that he converts free throws if fouled).

Overall, NU is in a much better spot than Minnesota for this game. Therefore, I think a quick start for NU would be fantastic. If NU gets off to a hot shooting start I suspect the Gophers will fade away as many of them are likely less than thrilled with the way their year has ended. With Drew Crawford due, I think NU can get that quick start. In the end the game will probably be close, though. I predict: Northwestern, 67 Minnesota, 64

Don’t Give Up Till It’s Over: The Big Ten Tournament Four Days From an NCAA Bid

Let’s be honest, this season was disappointing from a Northwestern fan’s perspective. From the moment this summer when Kevin Coble decided he didn’t want to play basketball for Bill Carmody anymore NU’s NCAA dreams were pretty much put on life support. Then in December when John Shurna went down with his ankle injury the life support machine got turned off. Instead of a healthy Shurna who probably could have led NU to a 9-9 Big Ten record even without Coble’s backing, the ‘Cats and the less than 100% Shurna struggled to finish 7-11 in the league with their only real quality win coming over a mediocre Illinois team. NU’s perceived underachievement has led some to label the ‘Cats the nation’s most disappointing team. I don’t know enough to argue one or another on that, but I do know this was in many ways the most disappointing year for me as a Northwestern fan. Many of the bad NU teams I’ve seen have simply been bad. There weren’t any expectations of success. This year the team had realistic hopes of making the NCAA Tournament, but once again fate seemed to throw every bit of hard luck possible at NU’s men’s basketball program. Does that constitute a cruse? Who knows? But let’s remember before we write this year off, it’s not over yet. Four wins in four days in Indianapolis and the entire history of the 2010-11 season will have to be rewritten.

To be honest, from the moment the Big Ten created their conference tournament I always kind of figured that would be how NU first made the Big Dance. In a way, that’s kind of crazy because winning four games in four days is really much harder than going 9-9 over 18 league games as tournament contenders Illinois and Michigan did. However, I think I’ve be skewed by looking at so many bad Northwestern teams that I figured getting hot over four days was more likely than any sort of consistent performance in the league. Consistency certainly wasn’t NU’s strong suit this season as not only was the team remarkably inconsistent, but many of NU’s players swing on the continuum from spectacular to terrible at remarkable rates. Drew Crawford and Luka Mirkovic stand out the most, but they aren’t the only Wildcats who lack any sort of consistent game.

Those inconsistencies, though, are part of why I can’t give up on this season just yet. Sure, the ‘Cats could lose to Minnesota on Thursday, but Northwestern is a streak-shooting team and they haven’t really had a hot streak since January. I saw them light up Georgia Tech for 55 points in a half and torch Iowa for the best 15 minutes probably ever played by a Northwestern basketball team. I’ve seen Crawford, Juice, and John Shurna get into stretches where they don’t miss. That hasn’t really been the case recently, but I know it could happen. If the ‘Cats catch fire in Conseco Fieldhouse they’ll have a shot at knocking off #1 ranked Ohio State in the second round of the tournament. If they do that, it’ll blow the door wide open for any would-be title contenders to claim a title which many assume will another Buckeye coronation.

The odds are against NU pulling off such an upset or perhaps even beating Minnesota on Thursday, but if ‘Cats play loose and confident no matter the situation they have a shot. And as someone once said…well, I guess that’s something.

It’s enough at least that I’m not giving up hope for another few days or to put in another way, as an upstart baseball team from the middle of the past decade once asked, "Why Not Us?"