Same Old Story

This game played out like seemingly countless games during the regular season. It’s a sad story, but it’s the true story of this team. They’re close, but it doesn’t seem like they’re close enough. Maybe being in seventh place in the Big Ten will count for something when Selection Sunday rolls around, but the official rule is the committee can’t consider conference affiliation. Still, I tend to think the seventh place Big Ten is a lot better than some second place team in a lot of mid-majors.

Honestly, Northwestern probably isn’t an NCAA Tournament and I’ve said that before, but they’re about as a good as a team can be without being an NCAA Tournament team and that hurts a lot. I mean they’re basically two plays away. If the proper call is made when Drew Crawford was fouled at Michigan or if Dave Sobolewski hits his runner at the end of this game then the Wildcats are in the NCAA Tournament. Unfortunately, those events didn’t go NU’s way and now things look pretty bleak.

A lot of people will want to blame Bill Carmody for this loss because that’s just what Northwestern fans do, but the fact is the two guys who deserve blame today are John Shurna and Dave Sobolewski. Shurna missed two front ends of 1-and-1 foul shots when the ‘Cats could have extended three point leads to five point leads and Sobolewski looked scared all day leaving shots short against the Gopher pressure all night. I’d also add that since he missed some early shots that Drew Crawford did nothing, but was anyone really surprised by that once his first shot didn’t go down?

Basically, Shurna, Crawford, and Sobolewski choked away this game. Some will say that’s too mean, but it’s a fact. When you front rim as many shots at they did that’s the sign of a choke. That right there tells you they don’t deserve to be an NCAA team. Also, I can’t say Bill Carmody is really blameless because the only player on the NU roster who has proven to actually have some guts is Alex Marcotullio and Carmody sat him for the game’s key moments.

JerShon Cobb did step up and basically he’s now NU’s only NCAA hope. Somehow, NU needs to hope that the committee decides that Cobb would have made a difference in enough losses that NU is better than their record, but the truth is NU is what their record says. After all, Cobb played great today and NU still couldn’t win.

I don’t know what to think right now in terms of looking at a possible NIT berth. I mean odds are NU will be one of the top-4 NIT seeds. That’s huge because the odds are that the first game will be one which NU isn’t actually jacked up for because of the disappointment of not making the NCAAs. At least if in round 1 NU can get an easy win maybe by round two they’ll realize that basketball is basketball and at least they’re playing for something. The Big Ten should get at least three teams in the NIT and so I expect that NIT to be pretty competitive, but if NU focuses they’ll have a great shot because they’ll have home court advantage all the way to NYC.

As for the NCAA Tournament, I’d say NU still has a 10% chance of making it, but I hope that’s not enough for people to actually want to have cameras in Evanston on Sunday. All that’s going to do is make the team more depressed and that’s not what we want right now. We need to get focused on the NIT and a chance to actually win a championship. It’s not the title people want to play for, but for Northwestern it would mean something.

The Big Ten Tournament or Two Wins From The Big Dance

Here we are on March 7th and Northwestern is on the precipice of the NCAA Tournament. I’ll admit I had my doubts about this team and coaching staff, but they’ve overcome so much that you can’t help but admire what they’ve accomplished. This has been one of the most impressive displays of perseverance I’ve seen and I’ve heard that perseverance is the main ingredient to make fantasy into reality. I think most assumed that if Northwestern were ever to make the NCAA Tournament it would be with some type of magical nearly perfect season where everything went right. Instead, it seems nearly everything has gone wrong at times this year and the ‘Cats are still on the verge of the Big Dance. I break down the odds this way:

Loss to Minnesota…10% chance of making the Dance
Win vs Minnesota…60% chance of the making the Dance
Win vs Minnesota and Michigan…We’re In!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Now how likely is that third outcome? Well, it’s probably something of a 50/50 proposition. I think Northwestern will beat Michigan if they get a third chance at the Maize and Blue. My biggest fear is a let down in the Minnesota game. It just seems like one of those games where the Gophers could out-athlete NU and steal a victory. The good news is that the Gophers might not have 6-11 center Ralph Sampson III due to a knee injury and if he can’t go that takes at least one big guy off the court. The other major advantage NU has is that fact that Minnesota isn’t a great three point shooting team. Julian Welch is pretty good, but to me he looks like he’s got kind of a low/slow release if NU can get out on him maybe they force him to alter his shot or put the ball on the floor and try to shoot off the dribble. Other than Welch, the Gopher shooters aren’t scary. What is scary is their athletic skill. Everyone talks about Rodney Williams because he gets highlight film dunks, but Austin and Andre Hollins are good athletes as well. They’ll be very tough guards for NU in man-to-man which is why I’m hoping to see the ‘Cats not worry too much about just springing the 1-3-1 on the Gophers. Without great shooters and great ball handlers the Gophers are just the type of team that zone was created to beat (as long as Rodney Williams doesn’t come flying in from nowhere and grab every rebound).

On offense for NU look for the Wildcats to attack the Gophers with hopefully the same balance they’ve shown recently. John Shurna is the leader, but I’d love to see another big game from Drew Crawford and continued solid efforts by JerShon Cobb, Alex Marcotullio, and Reggie Hearn. Also, if Davide Curletti rebounds like he did vs Iowa then he’ll be great help vs the athletic Gophers.

For years I’ve joked that Northwestern basketball has been paying off karma at a vastly accelerated and/or inflated rate, but I’d like to think it’s finally been paid off. The ‘Cats enter the Big Ten Tournament as ready to go as they’ve been all season missing only Luka Mirkovic from the regular rotation. That’s big and those returning players might be just what NU needs to push them over the top. I predict: Northwestern, 65 Minnesota, 60

Record Setting Win

John Shurna set the NU scoring record on the shot which I believe was the most critical of the game. Minnesota had just cut NU’s lead to seven points, but Shurna’s record setting three from the top of the key put NU back up by ten and seemed to eliminate any chance of a Gopher comeback. It was a big moment for Shurna and this is a big win for Northwestern. Of course, as excited as one might be about this game, which I’ll admit I billed as the biggest of the year, the Michigan on Tuesday now probably replaces this contest with that billing. Playing a Michigan team coming off a win over Ohio State and that will likely be ranked in the top-15 in the nation will give NU the chance to get a win which will boost their resume significantly. I’ve been something of a doubter throughout this year, but I’ll say that if Northwestern beats Michigan on Tuesday they are an NCAA tournament team, however, that’s a tough game which is far from an automatic victory even with a great Welsh-Ryan Arena home crowd like tonight.

Aside from John Shurna’s big shot, I thought the best part of tonight’s game was JerShon Cobb. Back from his injury, Cobb was fantastic at the top or the bottom of the 1-3-1 defense. Even though he didn’t score many points, Cobb’s intense defense netted four steals and disrupted Minnesota all night. If Cobb adds some offense to his game between now and the end of the season he could be the key guy in NU’s run towards that first NCAA berth.

Obviously, once again in a key game Dave Sobolewski stepped up big time. He’s been the key to a lot of NU’s significant wins this season. Tonight, Sobo hit four three pointers and seemed to understand what was just the right time to push the ball and be aggressive. As a result, he led the team with 22 points in 35 minutes and totally out played any of Minnesota’s guards. It was in many ways Sobolewski’s best game all year despite the fact that he only dished out one assist and he’s been listed all year as one of the top assist guys in the NCAA.

I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention that the rest of the ‘Cats also contributed to the win as well. Drew Crawford made some key early shots and got a great ally-op dunk on a pass from Alex Marcotullio. Reggie Hearn played good defense and had some nice drives to the hoop and Davide Curletti took a shot and made it and played really good defense all night. This win was team effort and with the NCAA bid on the line that same effort will need to be brought on Tuesday vs Michigan.

Biggest Game of the Year

I’ve flat out stated I don’t see Northwestern as an NCAA Tournament team right now and they won’t be one just by beating Minnesota. They will, however, take a significant step towards becoming one if they can beat Minnesota. Minnesota is a team that is also competing for a tournament slot and they are a team that Northwestern struggled with when the squads met earlier this season. Some of those struggles were simply the result of Northwestern missing shots, but Minnesota does offer a level of athletic skill that far exceeds Northwestern’s and that can be tough to handle.

I’d expect Northwestern to use more 1-3-1 zone than man-to-man in this game. Minnesota has two good shooters in Julian Welch and Andre Hollins, but the rest of the Gophers are at best average from behind the three point line. Also, I think Davide Curletti will be on the bench more in order for NU to put the best offensive team on the court, since NU isn’t much on defense anyway it’s not worth using the defense-only player in Curletti for more than a few minutes, and since NU doesn’t want John Shurna to have to play post guys man-to-man then I would say it is likely we’ll see a bunch of 1-3-1 defense from the Wildcats.

The 1-3-1 will also help clog the middle of the paint which should help NU in defending the front court of Minnesota which features the talented duo of Rodney Williams and Ralph Sampson III. If those guys get too many easy baskets than NU is in a lot of trouble, so I’d strongly advocate for forcing the Gophers to beat NU from behind the three point line.
On offense, Northwestern has been fine except for the lack of production from the center spot with Curletti in the game. He has to play, but it is a major problem when the ‘Cats essentially are playing 4-on-5. It was almost a joke how little respect Indiana gave Davide on the offensive end of the court. If Curletti actually does anything on offense, I would expect Northwestern to get a victory. I don’t know if I expect him to do anything, but it would certainly be nice if he did.

Obviously, John Shurna’s been playing great and should set the record for most career points at NU in this contest. Hopefully, that’ll prove a motivator for NU to continue to play hard. Of course, good defense and offense from NU’s supporting cast might be more important to Northwestern winning this game than Shurna’s offense. The home court advantage in this game could potentially be huge. I hope NU fans fill Welsh-Ryan Arena to support the ‘Cats in a game which will keep their NCAA hopes on life support and to see John Shurna make history. I predict: Northwestern, 77 Minnesota, 68

It’s Still the Defense, Stupid.

There is a lot of blame to go around on this one, but as much as NU was just awful on offense to start this game the real facts are that this game was lost on defense. Minnesota was able to get whatever shots they wanted driving to the basket or passing the ball without much pressure from Northwestern and the result was a lot of Gopher points.

Northwestern still lacks the intensity needed on defense to be truly competitive in the Big Ten long term and they still don’t respond well when things go wrong. The most obvious example of this is Drew Crawford. Crawford has the ability to be a good player, but he tends to sulk around when things go bad and forces shots because he wants to score. Then on defense since he’s so upset he didn’t make a basket his athletic ability is negated as he’s too busy worrying about himself to actually guard anybody. I’d say Crawford and Luka Mirkovic are great examples of how lacking in mental toughness Northwestern’s basketball program is, but I don’t want anybody to think they’re the only examples. They just are the ones who show it the most with their body language as it changes 180 degrees based on if they’re playing well or not.

The other major issue is that it seems that for the most part NU is at a point where the only people who really want to shot the ball are Crawford, Shurna, and Marcotullio (who doesn’t even start). This makes defending NU very easy. At some point the rest of NU’s players need to be given the okay to take a shot. After all, as frustrated as Crawford’s out of control drives make me, I understand that he has not choice when three of his teammates pass up wide open looks.

The only good news about this loss is it’ll probably put a stop to any NCAA Tournament talk for Northwestern and it’s about time. This team is about as from being an NCAA Tournament team as five kids playing pick-up at the park. Actually, if those kids play defense and rebound they’re probably closer.

I expect Northwestern will win their next two games which are both at home brining their record to 4-5 in the Big Ten, but the fact is that along with not playing defense; not winning on the road also finishes NU off as far as NCAA Tournament hopes. I’m not going to get into what this means for the program’s coaching situation at this point, but obviously some people will say this game is evidence Bill Carmody needs to be let go. That’s all well and good, but the fact is we’ve seen this game probably at least 25 times before during Carmody’s tenure. Therefore, I find it hard to say this single game is reason enough to let him go. It certainly doesn’t help, though.

Juice =’s Record Setter and Second Chance at OSU

Juice Thompson has accomplished a lot in his Northwestern career. Even before this season started his name was all over the NU record book during this year he’s simply added to it. Thanks to his 35 points today in round 1 of the Big Ten Tournament, Juice is now in the Big Ten record book as those 35 points bested the mark of 33 points set by Purdue’s Brian Cardinal in 1999 for the Big Ten Tournament’s single game scoring record. Juice and the ‘Cats now get to face #1 Ohio State tomorrow at 11 AM Central time for a shot at their first ever trip to the Big Ten semi-finals. Though winning that game is unlikely, one has to remember that in a similar game last year it took a 40-footer from OSU star Evan Turner to top Michigan. Also, given how well NU played OSU this season, I don’t think a win is impossible.
Certainly, an effort like Juice gave today would help as would some support from his teammates.

In today’s game Northwestern as team for the second game in a row played very good defense. Minnesota shot just 37.5% overall and just 33% from three. Also, NU did a very good job making it tough for Minnesota to get open looks for three. The ‘Cat defenders were in the face of Blake Hoffarber and the other Gopher guards for a good portion of the afternoon. Really, when Minnesota made open threes they were off of offensive rebounds. That’s something NU will need to prevent versus Ohio State, but Minnesota didn’t get many, so there is some model of how to do it. NU got outrebounded 40 to 30 by Minnesota, but with only five turnovers the ‘Cats were able to maximize each possession. Since NU will likely burn 30-plus seconds off the shot clock during each possession tomorrow, that ball control will remain critical.

Obviously, with 35 points, today was the Juice Thompson show, but you have to give some credit to Alex Marcotullio, Nick Fruendt, and Drew Crawford who helped Juice out on a day with John Shurna was held to just 2 points on 1-of-5 shooting. Marcotullio scored 13 points and made 5-of-8 shots overall and 2-of-5 from three. He once again played solid defense and tied Drew Crawford for the second highest Wildcat total with 6 rebounds. I think Marcotullio’s increased comfort in driving the ball has actually helped his shooting as teams are starting to notice he’ll finish at the rim and might have to give him a little space on the outside. Nick Fruendt played heavier minutes today than he had all year because of the injuries to Mike Capocci and JerShon Cobb. In those minutes he dropped in 7 points on 3-of-5 shooting and didn’t look tentative at all on the court. That’s huge for a guy who had only played in 16 games coming into today. Odds are Cobb and Capocci won’t be back tomorrow, so Nick is going to get a shot to really test his comfort and confidence when he lines up across from Buckeye swingman William Buford.

I also have to give credit to Drew Crawford who was second on the team with 15 points and did what I’ve been asking for a while and took the ball to basket. As a result, he scored 6 of his points from the free throw line and several of those came at key times. As was stated on the ESPN2 broadcast, Crawford looks good when he shoots threes. Personally, I wouldn’t be surprised that if NU does upset Ohio State the reason is Crawford gets hot and knocks in eight or nine threes, but when the shots aren’t falling from deep for Drew, he can still make a difference with his athletic skill if he attacks the basket.

Inside, NU didn’t get a ton of points or rebounds from Luka Mirkovic or Davide Curletti, but both battled enough to keep the rebounding gap respectable. John Shurna helped out with 7 boards and I never truly thought Minnesota’s athlete advantage took over. While I’d of course like to see more points from the Wildcat front court, containing the opposing athletes is just as important tomorrow.
The other thing that is important tomorrow is more consistency from NU behind the arc. Sure, the ‘Cats made nine threes, but that was on 31 tries. That’s 29% three point shooting. That won’t get it done against Ohio State. If NU is going to beat OSU they need to have a hot shooting night (or midday). If you look at NU’s 58-57 loss to Ohio State earlier this year, while NU did play well in almost every phase of the game, they didn’t shoot the ball well that day either. Ohio State is a great basketball team and the odds of NU beating them aren’t good, but as I’ve said before, Northwestern is a team I’ve seen get white-hot from behind the arc, but I haven’t seen that in a while. If they are to advance in the Big Ten Tournament, that white-hot shooting NU team needs to reappear. That means John Shurna and Drew Crawford need to do much much more than make one total three and Juice needs to pretty much repeat his efforts as do Marcotullio and Fruendt. All that happening will be tough, but at least with NU now moving to 18-12, I think they’re surly in the NIT and have a case for a home date. Of course, that case and the dream of making the Big tournament would improve with a victory tomorrow.

Win or Go, Well, Not Home, but Away in the NIT

What’s at stake for Northwestern on Thursday? Well, I’m guessing an NIT home game. NU’s 17-12 record combined with a strong Big Ten puts them probably right at the borderline on the middle of the NIT. Right now, NU is probably a 5-seed or a 6-seed, but I think with a win over a Minnesota team that is also likely destined to play in the NIT would give NU a strong case for a home game. The game would give NU a two out of three advantage over Minnesota for the year and place the Wildcats at a respectable 5-4 in their last nine games. If they drop a game on Friday to Ohio State, NU will still be 5-5 in their last ten, which while not an official criteria, is still something committees look at when judging teams.

NU just beat Minnesota in the season’s last game, but of course that game was in Evanston at Welsh-Ryan Arena where NU is much better than anywhere else (with the exception of Iowa City, Iowa). Now, NU has to go into Conseco Fieldhouse to try to top the Gophers. Conseco will be pretty empty when these two teams play so the crowd won’t be a factor, but for NU, which is a shooting team, playing in a new environment means adjusting to shooting in that new environment quickly.

Once again, Minnesota’s advantage is the fact they have three monsters inside. Trevor Mbawke at 13.7ppg and 10.5rpg is the headliner, but Ralph Sampson III and Colton Iverson both have size and the ability to rebound and score as well. Sampson even has displayed a nice touch on mid-range jump shots which sometimes presents a matchup problem. NU’s Luka Mirkovic was terrible against Minnesota last week, but thankfully Davide Curletti made up for Luka’s poor play. I think for NU to win on Thursday, though, both will need to play well. Sure, Curletti has been great of late, but Minnesota might shoot better than they have been of late and if that happens, NU can’t give up any easy baskets to along with made Gopher threes. Therefore, both Curletti and Mirkovic need to be tough on the defensive glass.

Minnesota’s Blake Hoffarber is one of the Big Ten’s best shooters, but he was pretty much locked down by Alex Marcotullio and Juice Thompson when the teams met in Evanston. If that happens again I think NU will win the game for sure, but you can bet Tubby Smith will be trying to find ways to get his senior guard open looks. I expect Hoffarber to run off a lot of screens and given NU’s trouble with fighting through screens that does scare me. It is critical that the Wildcat defense be aggressive and active and that they communicate with each other at all times. Whoever has Hoffarber can’t let him go, because if they do it’ll be Gopher threes all over the place.

On offense for Northwestern everyone is pretty much hoping the eight days off since the last game continues John Shurna’s recovery. Shurna is so good when 100% that early in the year one would have said he had an outside shot at Big Ten Player of the Year. He might still have a shot next year if he’s healthy, but he probably isn’t 100% yet. Still, if Shurna is closer to 100% his ability to not only shoot, but to drive on a bigger player and get fouled could allow for NU to get some easy points. I also expect to see a good game from Drew Crawford. Crawford struggled towards the end of the regular season, but he rarely has extended slumps and I would be shocked if he didn’t post a decent game Thursday. I just hope that he doesn’t settle too much for jump shots and that he tries to make things happen at the hoop (and that he converts free throws if fouled).

Overall, NU is in a much better spot than Minnesota for this game. Therefore, I think a quick start for NU would be fantastic. If NU gets off to a hot shooting start I suspect the Gophers will fade away as many of them are likely less than thrilled with the way their year has ended. With Drew Crawford due, I think NU can get that quick start. In the end the game will probably be close, though. I predict: Northwestern, 67 Minnesota, 64

Juice Finishes Off Senior Night with Strong Second Half

On a night when Northwestern got some great contributions from underclass bench players Alex Marcotullio and Davide Curletti, it was still the senior Michael “Juice” Thompson who ended up leading NU to victory. Thompson scored 15 of his 18 points in the second half and really took over in the game’s final moments with a couple big threes and some big free throws to push NU to victory. He also led NU in rebounds with a career high 7 boards which helped NU stay nearly even with Minnesota on the glass.

The 11 point win essentially serves as game two of a three game NIT-seeding series with Minnesota for Northwestern. With tonight’s win, I believe NU ensures they’ll get a bid to the NIT (they have the same league record as last year, no bad losses, and overall the college basketball world isn’t as strong). However, at this point Minnesota would probably get a higher seed and a home game while NU would be a bottom half of the bracket seed and play on the road for the third straight year. That’s legitimate as Minnesota has more quality wins than NU. However, if NU can beat Minnesota in game three of the series in Indianapolis on March 10th that’ll likely move NU ahead of the Gophers on the NIT Selection Committee’s big board. Of course, if NU does beat the Gophers in round 1 of the Big Ten Tournament, then perhaps they should focus on beating Ohio State in round 2 and trying to somehow get themselves into the NCAA Tournament for the first time. After all, that is still the goal for every NCAA team until they are officially eliminating and NU isn’t out yet.

If NU is going to beat the Gophers again in Indy, playing defense like they did tonight will certainly help. Alex Marcotullio played a career-best game on offense, but it was his defense which really helped NU. He frustrated Minnesota’s guards (especially Blake Hoffarber) all night by not allowing them clean looks from three and staying physical with them when they tried to drive. It was exactly the type of effort which NU needs more consistently if they ever want to seriously compete in the Big Ten. Marcotullio’s 5-of-9 shooting and 18 points, 2 assists, 2 steals, and 3 rebounds were also all great for NU on a night when NU didn’t shoot all that well (just 37.3%) and needed somebody they could count on to make big plays.

Marcotullio’s former AAU teammates Davide Curletti also helped NU to victory. Curletti had a significantly stronger game than Luka Mirkovic for the second game in a row and probably deserves a start in Indy. He helped keep NU in the game in the first half and for the game scored 12 points, got 4 rebounds, 4 assists, 2 blocks, and didn’t miss a free throw going 6-for-6 including a couple in the clutch.

The fact NU gets a week off before playing Minnesota again also may help the Wildcats. John Shurna scored 15 points today and although he didn’t shoot all that well (5-of-14 overall and 3-of-10 from three) he did show moments of explosiveness with a couple dunks, blocks, and rebounds. With another week of rest, perhaps the non-conference season John Shurna will show up for NU. If that happens, I think Northwestern has chance to beat any team they face the rest of the season.

As the Wildcats leave Welsh-Ryan for the 2010-11 regular season, they obviously would like to make the NCAA Tournament, but you have to be pleased that even if they don’t, they still have chance at the postseason for the third year in a row. While NU hasn’t won a postseason game since March of 1994, that fact that NU has a real shot of being in the NIT three seasons in a row is unprecedented success for the Wildcats in the post World War II era. A ton of credit for that success goes to the senior class honored tonight before the game so I want to give credit once again to Juice Thompson and his classmates Mike Capocci, Ivan Peljusic, and Jeff Ryan. All four contributed at different levels on the court during games, but each gave of themselves four or five years of heavy commitment to Northwestern basketball and as turned out their four or five years included some of the program’s most successful seasons. Let’s hope more success is in their future.

Wildcats Host Gophers on Senior Day

On Wednesday night Northwestern hosts Minnesota in what will probably be the final home game for four seniors. Jeff Ryan, Mike Capocci, Ivan Peljusic, and Michael “Juice” Thompson have some chance of playing a home game at Welsh-Ryan in the NIT, but the odds are this is the last time those four will play a home game for Northwestern. Obviously, Juice is the headliner, but all four of those players have been part of two (and potentially three) postseason teams for Northwestern which is unique accomplishment in the history of Northwestern basketball. Perhaps what is even more remarkable is that this class which has a great chance to make three postseasons started their careers with very poor seasons. Fifth year seniors Jeff Ryan and Ivan Peljusic saw NU go 2-16 and 1-17 in conference play during their first two years in the program and Juice and Mike Capocci were around for that 1-17 season. Despite such poor starts, all four played roles in helping NU move their record to 17-14 and 20-14 the past two seasons and in helping NU to a sure winning season this year. They were also all part of an NU team in 2008-09 which was probably the best Northwestern basketball team in the last 40 or 50 years and the team which has come the closest to taking NU to the NCAA Tournament.

I’m sure the lack of an NCAA invite is frustrating to these four seniors as it has been to many seniors in the past history of NU hoops, but the door isn’t truly closed for these four just yet. They have a home game Wednesday and then a rematch with Minnesota in the first round of the Big Ten Tournament. If the ‘Cats win that first tournament game and three more they still have a chance and that would be a remarkable legacy for the seniors to leave. Regardless, though, I’ll have positive memories of all four. Juice has of course made countless big plays, but I’ll never forget Ivan Peljusic’s great game against Indiana in NU’s near upset of the Hoosiers his freshman season or Mike Capocci’s big dunks along the way like the one his freshman year vs Michigan, or the great defense Jeff Ryan played on Robbie Hummel when NU upset Purdue at Purdue during that 08-09 season.

As to if NU can actually beat Minnesota on Wednesday and send the four seniors out winners, I don’t know. This Northwestern team is unpredictable and the current state of NU’s program isn’t great. They’ve suffered many more embarrassing losses than expected this year, a poor close to the season has put Coach Bill Carmody on the hot seat, and the team hasn’t been fully healthy since December. Now, they face a Minnesota team who is also struggling, but who probably has a significant advantage over NU in one key area—inside play.

NU’s starting center Luka Mirkovic got benched in the ‘Cats last game against Wisconsin due to his poor play and NU turned to Davide Curletti. Curletti played great, but he’s only 6-9 and Minnesota has great size in Ralph Sampson III, Colton Iverson, and the super-athletic Trevor Mbawke who is walking double-double at 13.9ppg and 10.4rpg. Those are impressive totals and I know Curletti can’t stop all three and he might not be able to stop any of the three. For Northwestern to win, Luka needs to comeback and have a good game. The positive is Luka is generally better at home, so that has to help. But you can’t count on Luka showing up to rescue NU’s season.

I’ll also be interested to see how (or if) NU plays defense on the Gophers. NU has struggled on defense all year and often tries to their 1-3-1 zone to get them out of trouble. However, Minnesota has shown the ability to knock down threes which will probably force NU to go man-to-man. If that happens, NU has to pressure the ball better than before in order to keep the Gophers from easy entry passes and short looks inside. NU also has to keep Minnesota off the glass. I fear Minnesota might employ an offensive approach which encourages three point shooting just because they believe their big three big men will dominate NU on the glass. If that happens NU doesn’t have a great chance for success. I predict: Minnesota, 78 Northwestern, 70

Northwestern Once Again Fails to Meet Challenge

Sports generally aren’t easy to predict. That’s what is supposed to make them fun to watch, the fact that anything can happen on any given night is why we tune into sporting events on our TV instead of watching a movie or a television show. However, Northwestern’s 2010-11 men’s basketball team is performing only according to the script. If one didn’t actually try to predict the outcome based on instinct and intuition, but instead made predictions based on only the facts, they would never be wrong in predicting a Northwestern game. Northwestern has still beaten every bad team they played, but failed to rise to the challenge and beat anybody any good.

NU’s loss tonignt against Minnesota wasn’t an embarrassment like the loss to Wisconsin; it was just a typical Big Ten road loss. The lower ranked, lesser talented ‘Cats tried their best against a highly ranked, more physically gifted Minnesota team, but despite some high points (and even a halftime lead) in the end Minnesota’s talent won out.

I think what’s becoming clear is that although this may be NU’s most talented team, they still aren’t talented enough to seriously expect to compete in the Big Ten. NU has a lot of nice players who can have good games, but nobody good enough that their physical skills ensure they are a factor every night. For example, tonight Drew Crawford returned from his trip to the never-never to hit five threes. However, Juice Thompson went on extended vacation until the final moments of the game leaving NU once again without an essential contributor. Both guys are fine players, but they’re basically dependent on hitting shots to be a factor and some nights you miss more than you hit. NU also doesn’t have a player on the roster who could match Minnesota’s inside players for strength and it doesn’t look like NU is very well schooled at making up for lack of weakness or jumps with proper rebounding form.

At its core though basketball is called basketball because you have to put the ball in the basket and that was NU’s biggest failing tonight. Thanks to a Gopher zone which extended far out on the perimeter and Northwestern’s unaggressive second half play (they didn’t even shoot a free throw till 30 seconds were left) NU took 39 three pointers. NU is a three point shooting team, but that’s far too many. NU needed to try to get the ball inside. Probably not to the post, because NU’s centers were clearly outmanned, but by driving the lane and then passing to cutters and shooters. That was the plan when NU staged a first half comeback, but it wasn’t the case in the second half when NU’s narrow lead disappeared.

Not that this will shock anyone either, but NU played poor defense in the second half tonight. I know you’re all surprise by it, but NU let Minnesota get the ball inside with so much ease in the second half that the Gophers were in the bonus almost before the first TV timeout because once they ball got inside the 1-3-1 NU had no choice but to foul. The 1-3-1 got NU back in the game in the first half, but I figured Tubby Smith would adjust for the second half and he did. I think NU really needs a third defense because right now both of NU’s primary options can and have been shredded on a regular basis. I’m guessing man-to-man is out, but with NU’s talent they seem like a team who is perfect for playing a triangle and two or box and one.

NU’s lack of production from the center position has been mentioned, but it’s worth restating because it was another obvious problem tonight and it shows were NU stands. Sampson, Iverson, and Mbakwe made NU’s centers look pretty bad and that’s bad because NU faces the nation’s best big man on Saturday in OSU’s Jared Sullinger. Also, NU can’t win without production from Luka Mirkovic and Davide Curletti. I don’t how, but someway needs to be devised to get those two to be a factor in every game NU plays.

John Shurna had a good game despite a scary injury as he scored 16 points and pulled down a number of rebounds as well. It’s good to see John getting clearly closer to one hundred percent. A more fully recovered Shurna has to give NU some hope that they might be able to buck the odds and pull an upset before the end of the season. At this point, though, one has to start to wonder what will be the final fate of this team. Is an NIT bid even likely if they don’t win a couple big games? I’d say no. Would NU accept a big to the CBI? Probably, but would it generate any buzz on campus? Who knows? For us in the core base on NU fandom there are clearly some key issues for debate, but I also see casual NU fans losing interest with NU basketball with each passing day. With as frustrating as this team has become to watch, I don’t really blame them. Still, I’m betting hosting Ohio State does generate a pretty good crowd. I just wouldn’t count on everybody coming back unless NU has saved all their cards to throw on the table for Saturday’s game. Of course, maybe it’s not what NU has to throw at OSU. Maybe it’ll finally be time that god or fate or time or whatever you believe is the controlling factor in the universe looks down for his/her/its high perch and says, “Alright Northwestern basketball fans, you’ve had to endure so much crap and catch so many bad breaks for so long it’s time I give you one good thing.” Hey, it’s possible, right?

Northwestern travels to Minnesota Still Seeking First Upset Win

On the heels of a disappointing defeat on Sunday, Northwestern will take a trip out of state for a game Wednesday in Minnesota. The ‘Cats opponent, the University of Minnesota Golden Gophers bring a 15-4 record and a #16 national ranking to the contest. This means that as bad as NU’s loss to Wisconsin might have been, NU can erase they defeat with an even more significant victory on Wednesday. The win would be especially big given that it would be a road win which is valued by the selection committee even more than home victories.

This might be stating the obvious, but this game won’t be easy. Teams that lose by 20-plus points at home don’t generally pull upsets on the road in their next game. However, Northwestern is a strange team. Sure, they pretty much beat who they should beat and lose to who they should lose to (that would mean a loss vs Minnesota) but the way they play from game to game is wildly unpredictable. NU’s lost some bad games besides Wisconsin, but several have been very close as well. On the other hand, most of NU’s wins have been easy, but their closest was to one of their weakest opponents. What’s all that mean? It’s anybody’s guess. I chose to believe that it means even though NU has yet to pull an upset this year that it still is possible.

If NU is going to pull the upset they must play defense. NU’s given up two historic offensive performances this year at Illinois and vs Wisconsin. Some credit those teams (and they deserve some credit), but the truth is that if you get beat so badly twice, it’s a pattern and some of the blame has to fall on you. I mean part of me has no trouble believing Northwestern is the team just unlucky enough to catch both teams on their best days ever, but in truth you don’t get as hot from deep as those teams without seeing some holes in the other guy’s defense. For NU to correct those holes they need to play with a little more effort on defense. In past years NU had guys who elevated the rest of the team’s defensive efforts, but we haven’t seen that this season. It would be a significant step if either JerShon Cobb or Drew Crawford used their athletic skill to really step to the forefront as NU’s top defender. One advantage NU might have in stopping Minnesota is the Gophers are without point guard Al Nolen who suffered a foot injury. With Devoe Joseph having transferred, Minnesota is short at guard. Maverick Ahanmisi will likely start on Wednesday and to this point he’s played just about nine minutes a game. If NU is going to try to use their active zone defenses to get turnovers this might be the night. The only problem with NU going 1-3-1 is the Gophers have Blake Hoffarber who is a 40% three point shooter to use in the holes of NU’s zone.

The other advantage the Gophers will have is size. NU had managed to avoid disaster on the boards in the Big Ten until Sunday when the Badgers dominated the ‘Cats. The Gophers have Ralph Sampson III and Trevor Mbakwe who are both big and mobile and who score in double figures and get more than five boards a game. Mbakwe actually gets more than 10. Colton Iverson is also a big Gopher who can rebound. Between those three, NU is going to need Luka Mirkovic to get some major help from the athletic duo of Cobb and Crawford.

Drew Crawford might be the most significant player for NU in this game. Not only does he need to be a factor on defense and the glass, but he needs to wave his magician’s wand and make himself reappear on offense as well. Crawford averages about 13 points a game, but it seems like he scores either 26 or 0 in a contest. 26 from Crawford would sure help increase NU’s chances.

NU also needs Juice Thompson to stay out of foul trouble. Minnesota will try to apply pressure and NU needs Juice on the floor to break it.

With this game being the first for the Gopher without Nolen anything could happen. Sometimes teams rally especially in the first game without a star. However, sometimes the loss of a player as blessed as Nolen will make a team panic. I think this game will be close as Minnesota adjusts, what likely will win it for Minnesota is the way the Gophers can dominate inside. NU could have a hot shooting night as Williams Arena is known as a great shooing environment, but if they don’t, I doubt any of NU’s inside players will be able to pick up the slack. I predict: Minnesota, 78 Northwestern, 70

Comeback ‘Cats on the Hardwood: Wildcats Overcome 13-point hole to beat Minnesota 77-74

This has nothing to do with analysis, but the last 9:33 of today’s Big Ten basketball game between Northwestern and Minnesota was the most fun I’ve had at a sporting event in a long time. From Luka Mirkovic’s steal and layup, to great rebounds by Drew Crawford and Luka, to Michael “Juice” Thompson hitting big threes and making great passes and clutch free throws (Luka made a number of clutch free throws as well), the Wildcats were able to bring the fans at Welsh-Ryan to their feet a remarkable number of times in the final five minutes of regulation and overtime. It wasn’t exactly Jeremy Nash putting the ‘Cats ahead against Illinois, but Welsh-Ryan was loud and proud in urging the ‘Cats to victory today. Hopefully, the NU fans (and especially the students) will show up on Wednesday when the ‘Cats host a winless in the Big Ten, but talented, Penn State squad. That game will give the ‘Cats a chance at a school-record tying 18th win, but it’s only because the ‘Cats came back from 13-points down to win today.

For almost ¾ of today’s game, Northwestern didn’t look much better than they did at Iowa on Wednesday, but the light went on in the final five minutes of regulation and in overtime for the ‘Cats to capture the victory. I’m found of saying, “games are won and lost in the last five minutes,” my friends and family often make fun of me for repeating this mantra, but today proves my point. The ‘Cats were bad for about 35 minutes today. They struggled to deny entry passes to Ralph Sampson III and Paul Carter, they let the Gophers get open look for three, and found themselves down double digits in the second half. Thankfully, the ‘Cats woke up late. I don’t know what caused it, but Luka Mirkovic appeared from nowhere to practically take the game over late. A guy who NU need to put out an APB for after Wednesday and today’s first half, Luka got NU back into the game with a huge steal and layup to make the game 52-50. He then caught a pass of a Michael “Juice” Thompson drive and hit a three to put NU ahead 53-52 late in the game. NU couldn’t hold that lead, thanks to a Blake Hoffarber three Minnesota sent the game to OT at 57-57, but in OT Luka and Juice went a combined 12-for-12 from the free throw line to allow NU to hold off the Gophers. Minnesota managed to consistently make shots and force NU to shoot pressure free throws down the stretch, but NU made every free throw with the game on the line.

Luka Mirkovic had a very quiet first half (as did most of NU’s players), but overall for the day Luka stuffed the stat sheet with 11 points, 10 rebounds, and 4 steals. At times this year I’ve said that Jeremy Nash and Alex Marcotullio were essential players for NU’s success, but now I think it’s clear Luka Mirkovic is the most important key to NU winning. In NU’s two big wins against Michigan and Indiana, Luka had great games. Also, in NU’s only Big Ten road win, the game at Michigan, Luka scored 13 points and grabbed 8 rebounds. As the season goes down to the wire, I’ll be looking closely at how Luka plays in hoping for Wildcat success.

NU’s leading scorer in today’s game was John Shurna who finished with 22 points. Shurna’s ability to hit threes (6-of-13) kept NU in the game in the second half until they could start the comeback. Shurna also scored NU’s first basket in the overtime period. I actually think NU should have run that same play for the final shot in regulation. When Shurna gets somebody on his hip in the post he can go up and under and score with ease.

Another Wildcat who had a strong all around game was Drew Crawford. Crawford, like Luka, was somewhat quite early, but he benefited from many of Juice Thompson’s 7 assists to score 18 points. Most notable were an alley-oop layup late in regulation and an easy layup in OT, but Crawford also made his presence felt with 9 rebounds, 4 assists, and 3 steals. The Big Ten has a number of good freshman this year, but Drew Crawford has consistently played at a high level and come up big when his team needed him in clutch situations.

Finally, credit has to go to Jeremy Nash who played 42 minutes (second to Shurna’s 45) scored 9 points, had 3 assists, and 2 steals. He also helped apply pressure to Minnesota that resulted in steals for Crawford and Luka at several key moments. Jeremy Nash is an underrated player. I sincerely hope he gets some acknowledgement when it comes to post-season all-defense honors.

NU moves to 17-8 overall. They have tied the school record for regular season wins with 17 victories. If NU can beat Penn State on Wednesday they will tie the school record for total wins and, I believe, with a record 10 game above .500, once again force themselves back into NCAA Tournament discussion.

Game 25: Minnesota @ Northwestern Wildcats

Due to travel and other commitments I won’t be able to post again until after the Minnesota game. Therefore, although this post is the Minnesota preview, I’ll take time to share some other toughts as well.


The Matchup: Minnesota (14-9) @ Northwestern (16-8)

Location: Welsh-Ryan Arena

TV: Big Ten Network (4:00 PM CT Sunday February 15th, 2010)
Radio: WCPT AM 820

Fun Fact: Tubby Smith is 2-1 in his career at Welsh-Ryan Arena.

About the Game
After the loss at Iowa, the Wildcats return home to face a Minnesota. The Gophers are coming off a 71-63 loss at home to Michigan on Thursday. It’s debatable if the Gopher loss to Michigan or NU’s loss to Iowa is worse. The bottom line is that on Tuesday of this week it looked like Northwestern vs Minnesota was going to setup as an NCAA Tournament elimination game. Now, this game is basically for seeding in the Big Ten Tournament. Honestly, that might make the game more critical. If the only way for the Wildcats or the Gophers to make the Big Dance is getting four victories in Indy, having the best possible draw is essential for that task.

Looking at the larger picture for a moment, I’ve always kind of thought that NU’s first NCAA Tournament appearance would come as a result of the winning the Big Ten Tournament (BTT). I’d pretty much made up my mind that NU was in fact going to win the Big Ten Tournament in 2004 after the 8-8 Big Ten season and the BTT record 22 steals in the first round defeat of Penn State. Obviously that didn’t happen, but I do believe this year’s team can win four games in Indianapolis. I think the bigger question, especially after last night is: do the players and coaches wearing the NU gear share that same belief? There is a very big difference between hoping you can do something and truly believing you can do something. I think a lot of Northwestern basketball teams have been great at hoping they would do something great or historic, but I’m not sure in my lifetime I’ve truly seen a team that truly believed in their abilities. A former Northwestern football coach talked about belief without evidence, in basketball I’ve seen NU teams that didn’t believe even though they had evidence.

Getting back to the game Sunday, the Gophers beat the Wildcats 65-61 in Minneapolis, but NU certainly proved they could hang with the Gophers in coming back from 13 points down to actually take the lead before Gopher guard Blake Hoffarber got crazy hot from behind the arc.

After the Iowa game NU should be very aware of three pointers. Bill Carmody said after the game that NU’s players basically ignored the scouting report and didn’t fight through screens. The scouting report on Hoffarber is he’ll torch NU if he gets open, hopefully the good that will come out of the Iowa loss is that won’t happen.

NU’s 1-3-1 against Iowa was pretty bad, except for one nice Alex Marcotullio steal, based on that and Minnesota shooting about 39% as a team from three, you’d think NU ought to scrap the 1-3-1 on Sunday. However, Minnesota also has trouble with turnovers, and the 1-3-1 produced a bunch in Minneapolis. If I were Bill Carmody, I would start this game in the 1-3-1. If it works and causes TOs, I’d stick in it for the duration. If Minnesota gets Hoffarber and Lawrence Westbrook hot from the outside in the first few possessions, I’d get out of the 1-3-1 instantaneously.

On offense, Northwestern feel victim to Minnesota’s pressure and Ralph Sampson III’s size in the first game. Sampson kept Luka Mirkovic to only 6 points and blocked or altered a ton of NU inside looks. If NU is to win Mirkovic needs to have perhaps his best effort ever. He needs to not back down and play soft (like he did Wednesday), but needs assert himself early and show he isn’t intimidated by Sampson or Colton Iverson’s size.

Luka and his teammates also need to get much more aggressive in how they go to the hoop. With Sampson, Iverson, Paul Carter, and Damian Johnson inside, Minnesota will block finger roles. When inside, NU needs to go up strong, put their shoulder to the hoop, and if possible even try to DUNK the ball. I can’t say from personal experience (unless you count an 8-foot hoop) what dunking a basketball feels like, but I’m pretty sure if I could dunk, I wouldn’t finger role layups. One of the myths of Northwestern fandom is that Bill Carmody doesn’t like dunks. This is categorically untrue, but I can see how watching NU’s soft attempts at the hoop might lead to this myth. In practice the next few days, Carmody and the staff need to extort aggressiveness from the players in every area, offense, defense, rebounding, coming on and off court, filling up water cups, and anything else that’s going to happen Sunday. By nature Tubby Smith teams are relentlessly aggressive. If you can’t meet their aggressive nature, you lose to them. NU is 1-6 against Smith since he took over in Minnesota. Many of those games have been close, but I honestly believe the difference is that NU almost always sleepwalks for a portion of the game while the Gophers stay aggressive. This either leads to NU blowing a big lead (BTT two years ago) or NU getting in a big hole (07-08 regular season, at Minnesota last year, BTT last year, earlier this year) and not being able to overcome that hole. The only NU win against Minnesota under Smith was last year after NU blew the huge home lead to Purdue and as a result the Wildcats came out fired up with as much urgency and intensity for a single game as any NU team in recent memory. That team needs to show up on Sunday. If they do this game will really be something to see. If they don’t, if we see typical NU sleepwalking for periods of time, it’ll be a good day to be a Gopher.

Prediction:
From reading this post you probably have a pretty good idea of the type of pregame speech I’d be giving Sunday afternoon. I doubt Bill Carmody will be giving that speech, though. He just doesn’t seem to be that type of fire-up coach. That’s actually fine. 95% of the time I perfer coaches be like Carmody. Guys who are fire-breathers all the time just aren’t realistic to me. Nobody can be pumped up all the time. It's just not possible and probably isn't effective after a while either. Against Tubby, though, I'd like to see Carmody and Wildcats get pumped up. It doesn't have to come from Carmody, though. As often discussed by Tom Izzo, good teams are more player-coached than coach-coached on game day. I somehow doubt Jeremy Nash is reading this blog, but I know he’s started to do some player-coaching in the NU huddle and locker room and I’m hoping that based on seven career games against Tubby Smith’s Gophers (more than any other team), that he’s seeing the same need for aggressiveness that I am. So, I’m putting my trust in Northwestern’s one healthy senior to rally his teammates to get aggressive and to start believing instead of just hoping. Northwestern, 71 Minnesota, 68

One Play Away: Gophers, Hoffarber Make Just Enough Big Plays to Put ‘Cats Away Late 65-61

Northwestern deserves credit for a second half comeback from down 13 points (the move to risk playing the 1-3-1 really paid off) to take a lead in this contest, but Minnesota guard Blake Hoffarber deserves even more credit for essentially taking over the game in crunch time. Hoffarber scored two big threes and two big free throws, plus got the game’s key rebound to ensure the Gophers held off NU’s comeback attempt. For Minnesota this game will place them back in the running for the NCAA Tournament. On the other hand, this loss puts Northwestern in a Mission Impossible situation James Phelps and Ethan Hunt would find intimidating—the Wildcats now must win at either Michigan State or Wisconsin in order to have a legitimate case on Selection Sunday.

In a game like this any one play might have been the difference, but the truth was Minnesota’s 21-7 first half run, which started after NU missed a shot which would have put them up eight, was essentially the game changing moment. Minnesota upped their pressure and the Wildcats, most notably reserve guard Nick Fruendt, melted under the pressure like the Wicked Witch in rain storm. The worst moment had to be the play where it was clear Fruendt was terrified to throw the ball inbounds despite the fact that two players were standing so close he probably could have handed the rock to them. Instead, he gave the ball to Michael Thompson in the corner and Thompson proceeded to pass the ball out of bounds to Bill Carmody.

The other element of the Gopher pressure which hurt NU was the size factor. With Ralph Sampson III and Colton Iverson inside NU became essentially just a three point shooting team. The Wildcats made 12 threes in the game, but only 10 twos. Also, many of those twos were jump shots as the Wildcats basically couldn’t get near the rim. Luka Mirkovic had a good game on the glass with 13 rebounds, but was routinely swatted when attempting to convert at the hoop. I don’t understand why Mirkovic won’t throw in a head fake or something on occasion. It doesn’t need to be anything elaborate, but something to the defender out of balance sure would help. I also want to clearly convey the fact to NU’s players that when trying to finish in traffic against a bigger player a finger roll is not a good choice. When forced to go up in traffic please try to DUNK THE BASKETBALL! Even if you don’t convert, they won’t be able to swat you like they can a finger roll and you’ll probably get fouled.

Of those 12 threes, Thompson made five and John Shurna made four. Thompson’s five threes, though, were his only offense as he ended with 15 points. Shurna managed to score 19 points and get 7 rebounds. It was another solid performance, but I wish he would have pulled the trigger on a three instead of dribbling and taking a forced two with 15 seconds left and NU down three. I’m not really sure what that two would have even accomplished and doubt that was the end result the coaching staff envisioned for that play.

Some people will say Minnesota used their superior bench to win the game, but I didn’t really see NU tire at all. In fact, NU played much better in the second half. However, I do think NU’s lack of bench production is something of an issue. Right now, if every NU starter doesn’t play well, Bill Carmody has no other options. Tonight, NU’s bench contributed 3 points, 2 rebounds, and a whole lot of panic. As a result, even if Crawford and Nash weren’t playing their best games, Carmody had to leave them on the court.

The Wildcats now sit at 3-5 in the Big Ten with 10 games left. NU can probably go 6-4 in those 10 games to get to 9-9, but I’m a little disappointed because this reminds me a ton of last year’s game at Ohio State, and I honestly believe had NU held their late lead in that game the ‘Cats would have been in the Big Dance. I hope the same story doesn’t hold true with this contest.

Game 20: Northwestern Wildcats @ Minnesota

The Matchup: Northwestern (14-5) @ Minnesota (12-7)

Location: Williams Arena (Minneapolis, MN)

TV: Big Ten Network (8:00 PM CT Tuesday January 26th)
Radio: WIND 560 AM

Fun Fact: Since taking over Minnesota, Tubby Smith has played Northwestern more than any other opponent thanks to two matchups in the Big Ten Tournament.

About the Game
We’re 19 games into the season and as long as Northwestern keeps winning, the magnitude of each game will continue to rise. In game 20 the Wildcats travel north to Minneapolis with a potential at-large NCAA-birth on the line. Right now, Northwestern is in slightly better shape than Minnesota for an NCAA bid. The Wildcats have a better RPI (#56 compared to #64) and have two more wins. Minnesota does have a stronger strength of schedule (#32 to #71). Those numbers will get pushed aside, though, starting at 8:00PM CT tomorrow. By the end of the night, one team will have a legitimate case over the other for an invitation to the big dance.

If Northwestern wants to get out of Minnesota with a victory they’ll have to counter some impressive Gopher athletes. The good news is that Minnesota is actually a very similar team to Illinois, who the ‘Cats just beat. Minnesota’s leading scorer is guard Lawrence Westbrook. Westbrook scores 13.3 ppg and along with fellow guard Blake Hoffarber is the reason I hope NU sticks to the switching man-to-man avoids playing the 1-3-1 zone. Westbrook makes 42.2% of this threes and Hoffarber is the best shooter in the Big Ten with a three point percentage of 49.5%. The good news for NU is that while many of the Gophers are very athletic, Hoffarber is more of a standstill shooter. If Northwestern can put Drew Crawford on Hoffarber in man-to-man, I believe Crawford can blanket the Gopher guard and keep his damage to a minimum.

The area where I’m more concerned about Minnesota doing damage is on defense. The Gophers are masterful at using their small, quick, and smart guards to cause turnovers and turn those turnovers into easy points. Westbrook, Devoe Joseph, and Justin Cobbs will go after Michael “Juice” Thompson and Jeremy Nash in the backcourt. It is critical that Thompson play his normal smart game and, unlike Illinois, stay out of foul trouble. While Nick Frudent and Alex Marcotullio were able to hold the fort against Illinois, I don’t want them to have to face the Gopher pressure.

Part of what makes Minnesota’s pressure so effective is that Tubby Smith rotates fresh players constantly. Athletic forward Damian Johnson (10.5 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 2.1 bpg) leads the Gophers in minutes per game with 25.4. That’s a far cry from Thompson leading NU with more than 38 minutes per game. The Wildcats use of their bench against Illinois might prove very useful in preparing for Minnesota. I expect fans will see more time from Kyle Rowley in order to rest Luka Mirkovic from having to face the constant rotation of not only Johnson and Ralph Sampson III inside, but also Gopher big men Paul Carter and Colton Iverson. Other Wildcats subs like Mike Capocci and Ivan Peljusic may be called on once again as well.

Prediction:
Some of have said this game could, like the Illinois contest from Saturday, be an NCAA elimination game. It is almost certainly that for Minnesota, but I’d like to think NU’s better record might allow them to survive even with a loss. Still, this might be NU’s best chance at big road win as winning in East Lansing or Madison will be tough. That might make this a must-win for NU as well. Perhaps the best news for Northwestern is that while the ‘Cats seem to be trending upwards, the Gophers are dealing with academic issues which have disqualified guard Al Nolen and the disappointment of two close losses in a row. The other good news is that NU has risen to the occasion every other time they faced a must-win. They beat Michigan on the road to help stabilize their season in a tough stretch, they beat Purdue for a signature win, and they bested Illinois in a contest selection committee members will look back on in March. I’m looking at those contests as evidence this year’s Wildcats are one of those teams who constantly succeeds when backed up against the wall. Northwestern, 66 Minnesota, 63

Poor Start, Bad Finish, Cost Wildcats in 66-53 loss to Gophers

In a game which was shockingly similar to the loss to end the regular season at Ohio State, the Wildcats fell way behind, got the lead back, but then couldn’t hold it in the end. Again, the Wildcats were primarily defeated in the clutch by one athletic player—in this case Lawrence Westbrook. Northwestern’s total inability to stop the Westbrook, Turner, Harris type of player is scary when looking at some of the athletic mid-major players the Wildcats might play in whatever postseason tournament they get into. Think about playing Davidson and Stephen Curry in the NIT.

Northwestern also suffered this defeat thanks to once again starting slowly. They let the Gophers build a 14-point lead early and struggled mightily at taking care of the ball. The worst offenders in that case were Kyle Rowley and Jeff Ryan. Ryan’s inability to take care of the ball after coming in off the bench was particularly disappointing. After sitting on the bench and seeing Minnesota’s defensive intensity, Ryan should have known lazy passes wouldn’t work. Rowley simply has to get tougher. At times he seems to forget he is facing Big Ten competition and starts to think his size is enough to score. It is not. He must add aggressiveness as well. Of course, Ryan and Rowley weren’t the only Wildcats to turn the ball over in the first half. Really, the whole Wildcat team made the ball look like it had been dipped in grease during the first half.

Northwestern did stage a great come back in the second half. They took care of the ball better and got some point production from Jeremy Nash and Michael Thompson who didn’t score in the first half. Unfortunately, Kevin Coble, who kept the ‘Cats in the game with 19 first half points, scored only 2 points in the second half. With the Gophers locking down Coble it made sense for the Wildcats to try to go their second leading scorer, Craig Moore. Sadly, Moore played his worst game of the season. He shot 3-of-16 overall and 2-of-14 from there point range. Looking back, I have to say that since the victory over Indiana Moore hasn’t really played well. He had a good second half against Ohio State, but it has been a long time since one of Moore’s can’t miss games. In whatever postseason tournament Northwestern plays, Moore will have to have to produce points if the Wildcats want to win.

The Wildcats slow start probably deserves some separate analysis. This has been a problem at times during the year for Northwestern and it isn’t good, especially in big games. Getting down early in a big game lets the other team get comfortable and not feel pressure. I don’t know what the solution to this problem is, but it must be addressed. I would hate for Northwestern to play in the postseason and look as ill prepared as they did today.

So, what will happen to Northwestern in the postseason? Odds are they will play in the NIT. Where will they be seeded in the NIT? That’s tough to say. NIT seeding is a very fluid situation because all conference champs who don’t make the NCAA Tournament must make the NIT. As a result, those teams start to fill in the bracket and take spots away from borderline NIT teams. I doubt NU will get bumped, but those teams might alter NU’s seed. It is not clear, however, in what way the seed will change. If champs from a ton of small conferences start to fill the NIT bracket, Northwestern’s 6 wins over top-50 RPI teams might move the ‘Cats up a couple seed lines. If the NIT selection is more straight forward thanks to a lack of conference tournament upsets, Northwestern will probably be seeded in the middle of the NIT. Does that equal a home game? Well, right now I’d probably give NU a #4 seed and at least one home game. The most realistic opponents, assuming the NIT stays true to their plan to try to reduce travel costs, are probably the Illinois State Redbirds or the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. Either of those teams would be a tough matchup, but would certainly produce a great deal of local excitement.

The Rest of the Week at Welsh-Ryan Ramblings:
With the Wildcats now out of the Big Ten Tournament Welsh-Ryan Ramblings will have the following content this weekend...

Friday: Welsh-Ryan Ramblings Awards for 2008-09
Saturday: NU postseason outlook update. Information on the NIT, CBI, and CIT.
Sunday: The 'Cats find out where they are going. A first look at the matchup.

Big Ten Tournament Round 1: #8 Minnesota vs #9 Northwestern

The Matchup: #8 Minnesota (21-9) vs #9 Northwestern (17-12)

Location: Conseco Fieldhouse (Indianapolis, Indiana)

TV: Big Ten Network (11:00 AM CT)
Radio: WGN 720 AM

Fun Fact: Northwestern and Minnesota met in the first ever Big Ten Tournament game following the conclusion of the 1997-98 regular season.

About the Game
The NCAA Tournament is on the line in this first round Big Ten Tournament contest. Minnesota can likely clinch an NCAA breath with a win, while a loss will likely send the Gophers to the NIT. Northwestern probably needs at least two wins in the Big Ten Tournament to once again make the NCAA bubble, but a win over the Gophers probably assures the ‘Cats at least a top half NIT seed. A loss and the Wildcats might find themselves on the road in the NIT or in the CBI or CIT.

These two teams split their regular season meetings. Northwestern posted a 74-65 win in Evanston and Minnesota won in a blowout 72-45 at Williams Arena. It should probably be noted that Northwestern might have be plagued by the flu in that loss. As a result, Kevin Coble and Craig Moore played their lowest number of combined minutes all season in that contest.

Looking at the differences in the two games, other than the flu, Minnesota generated many more Wildcat turnovers in the second contest. This helped the Gophers get a great deal of fast break points. This is critical as Minnesota tends to struggle with turnovers at times in their half court offense. If fact, Northwestern forced the Gophers into almost 20 turnovers in the Evanston contest because they stopped the Gophers from fast breaking. This also significantly reduced the number of free throws Minnesota took. The Gophers took 27 free throws in their victory. Gopher guard Lawrence Westbrook is the type of player who excels at getting to the line and making free throws. He is an excellent penetrator and despite his limited size, he can finish at the hoop. Northwestern needs to do a better job on Westbrook than they did on Evan Turner in their last game. What might help the ‘Cats is that Jeremy Nash and Jeff Ryan are both bigger than Westbrook. In addition to getting Westbrook into the lane, Minnesota will try to take advantage of their superior size inside to outrebound NU and score easy at the basket. If Minnesota watched how B.J. Mullens embarrassed NU, they might try the same plan with their own big freshman Colton Iverson.

For Northwestern the key will be getting off to a good start. NU seemed overcome by the magnitude of the Ohio State game and they quickly found themselves down 15 points. Traditionally, the first game in the Big Ten Tournament is a low scoring affair thanks to the early start. If the Wildcats can come out of the locker room and shoot a high percentage in the first half they might be able to coast to victory.

Prediction:
When Northwestern and Minnesota played the second time I expected Minnesota to win, but I expected the game to be close. I think despite Minnesota’s size, Northwestern can play with the Gophers. The reason is Minnesota has nearly as many turnovers as assists. In addition, Minnesota is only a 33.6% three point shooting team. This means Northwestern might be able to use the 1-3-1 zone which has caused Minnesota trouble in the past without having to worry about the Gophers shooting the Wildcats out of the gym. Also, despite both teams losing their last game before the Big Ten Tournament, Northwestern finished the year stronger. Fans should further note that though neither team was great on the road this season, Northwestern played slightly better away from home. Of course, Minnesota is the one team of the two to play on a neutral court. The odds are this game will be as neutral a setting as possible. Neither Minnesota nor Northwestern tend to bring a ton of fans to the Big Ten Tournament. Also, since the game is the first of the day, many fans will not show up until halftime. That means when the game starts the crowd will probably be about 5,000 people in 18,345 seat arena. As a result, the teams will need to bring their own intensity. I hope Northwestern learned how from the Ohio State game. I expect they did, but I don’t think it’ll be so much they put the Gophers away. This will be a very close game, but I do think the ‘Cats will live up to my preseason expectation and break their Big Ten Tournament losing streak. Northwestern, 68 Minnesota, 66

Wildcats Drop 72-45 Illness Inducing Performance to Gophers

Northwestern might have a few players with the flu, but unless the entire team and the coaching staff have some sort of illness, this game has to go down as the most disappointing loss of the year. Northwestern just played a head-scratching game both on the court and on the sidelines. Kevin Coble was sick so it is understandable perhaps why he never got going, but Craig Moore couldn’t get going either and then he disappeared to the bench for the second half. With Moore and Coble on the bench the Wildcats were forced to turn to a lineup which featured Jeff Ryan, Sterling Williams, and Jeremy Nash at the same time. Obviously, that isn’t going to be a strong offensive lineup, but what was very frustrating from Northwestern’s perspective was this lineup didn’t play great defense or rebound either. Jeff Ryan let Minnesota’s guards get around him multiple times which lead to easy layups. Williams and Nash each committed two turnovers and despite their athletic skill only pulled down a total of three rebounds. With those three guys in the game, the advantage NU should have is athleticism, but that advantage was not apparent on Sunday night.

Obviously, the strangest fact of the above situation was Craig Moore disappearing to the bench early in the second half. He went to the bench right after NU botched up an inbounds play, but thanks to Tim McCormack chatting about his Oscar picks we couldn’t tell what exactly happened. Whatever it was, it seemed the impetus for Moore’s permanent trip to the pine.

Northwestern’s center position also probably deserves mention when recapping this game. Kyle Rowley played the best of NU’s quadrangle of big men. He scored 7 points and got 3 rebounds. In the second half Rowley made some nice quick moves, however, in the first half when the game was still somewhat close, Rowley reverted to the form where it takes a sun dial to time his moves. When he makes moves quick, like in the second half of the OSU game, Rowley looks like a serious Big Ten big man. At other times, though, Rowley looks like he is over thinking everything. Still, he was by far NU’s best center today. Luka Mirkovic went to the bench early with fouls and may have still been overcoming his recent illness. Davide Curletti still looks a little lost, in one sequence he entered the game and failed to move his feet at all on defense which promptly allowed Colton Iverson to drive right around him for an easy basket, then on the other end of the court Jeremy Nash drove the lane and threw a nice pass to Curletti, except Curletti was shocked by the ball’s appearance and he couldn’t handle the pass. Bottom line, it looks like Curletti still isn’t ready for Big Ten play. Ivan Peljusic got what is becoming rare action in this game and didn’t play well either. He missed two free throws and overall also looked a little off. Still, I think he looked better than Curletti. However, I have to assume his practice performance doesn’t matchup. Otherwise, I assume he’d get the 5-10 minutes a game Curletti seems to now be getting.

Finally, it is now critical NU win at Indiana on Wednesday if they want to make sure they get in the NIT. Road games at Ohio State and Purdue will be much tougher to win than the one at Indiana. With a 14-11 record, NU probably needs at least 17 overall wins to assure an NIT bid. They probably need 16 overall wins to assure a postseason bid. They have a great chance to win at home against Iowa and the Big Ten Tournament opener is always a toss up, but at Indiana is the only road game remaining that they should win.

Game 25: Northwestern @ Minnesota

Craig Moore, Sterling Williams and their classmates have seen more road wins at Minnesota than any other Big Ten road venue.

The Matchup: Northwestern (14-10) @ Minnesota (19-7)

Location: Williams Arena (Minneapolis, MN)

TV: Big Ten Network (6:00 PM CT Sunday)
Radio: WIND 560 AM

Fun Fact: Including his redshirt freshmen season, Sterling Williams is 3-1 at Williams Arena as a Wildcat.

About the Game
Minnesota comes into this game with a 19-7 overall record, but a 14-2 mark at home. Returning home is probably big for the Gophers after a disastrous game against Michigan on Thursday night. On the heels of that defeat, Minnesota needs a win against the Wildcats to keep their NCAA tournament bubble from bursting.

On the side of things, Northwestern might be out of the NCAA tournament picture, but they are still fighting for postseason position. After NU’s win on Wednesday night over Ohio State, the bracket project moved NU’s projection to a 5-seed in the NIT. Given NU’s struggles on the road (with one notable exception) it is very important to the Wildcats postseason success that they either get to play home games or show they are more than one-hit wonders away from Welsh-Ryan Arena.

Looking back at the first meeting between Northwestern and Minnesota, the Wildcats won 74-65 on the strength of 22 points from Craig Moore and 19 forced turnovers. In this rematch, Tubby Smith will likely focus the Gophers attention on keeping close track of Moore and cutting down on the turnovers. It could lead to an interesting chess match between the coaches if Smith changes his offense to counter the 1-3-1 and Bill Carmody chooses to play more of the 2-3 zone/switching man-to-man he has used in recent games. One determining factor in the outcome of the game and what defense Northwestern plays will be if the ‘Cats can cause enough turnovers to counter Minnesota’s ability to make threes. In the first contest, Minnesota made 10 threes. Gophers leading scorer Lawrence Westbrook made 3-of-8 and scored 18 points, while his teammate Damian Johnson made 2-of-3 and shot 6-of-9 overall. What had to disappoint Smith, though, was how despite the Gophers size, they only outrebounded the Wildcats by two rebounds. This will be another key factor to keep an eye on as NU’s tries for the season sweep. The ‘Cats might be at a disadvantage this time, however, because Luka Mirkovic who played the majority of NU’s minutes at center in the contest in Evanston has been out sick for a week and has lost 20 pounds. Even if Mirkovic comes back, NU will need Kyle Rowley to continue to play as well as he did in the second half against Ohio State if they want to matchup with the Gophers big men.

Prediction:
Overall, Northwestern has struggled on the road this season. While the win over Michigan State is a major highlight of the season so far, the Wildcat losses to Michigan and Iowa away from Welsh-Ryan Arena are low points. Minnesota, on the other hand, his struggled mightily away from Williams Arena, but have only lost two games at home. One factor that might play into Northwestern’s favor is the fact the Wildcats are on an emotional high after the win over Ohio State and Minnesota has to be at least a little down after their disappointing loss to Michigan. However, Tubby Smith isn’t the type of coach to let his team stay down. I expect this will be a close game, but I think Minnesota’s home court advantage combined NU’s road struggles gives them the edge. I fear NU will have to wait until Wednesday at Indiana to record Big Ten road win number two. Minnesota, 65 Northwestern, 60

Wildcats upset #18 Gophers 74-65

The Wildcats were ready for Minnesota on Sunday

After a tough loss on Thursday night, the Wildcats put together an impressive mental and physical effort to top Minnesota 74-65 at Welsh-Ryan Arena on Sunday afternoon. Much of the credit has to go to Craig Moore who aside from 22 points (6-of-9 3PT) also showed great leadership throughout the game. At one point Moore even got in his teammates faces after they mishandled Minnesota’s 1-2-2 trap. Moore finally seemed to be the guy I was looking for who said, “enough is enough” and made the mental decision to play with a mental and physical toughness many Wildcats have lacked during the past few seasons. His teammate Jeremy Nash also brought an impressive level of intensity playing great defense for the second straight game. Nash is a game changer with his ability to get steals (3 today) and just simply disrupt the other team’s offense rhythm. I was also pleased to see him take a breakaway and JAM the ball. I hope some of his teammates take a lesson from him.

Overall, Northwestern shot 47.8% for the game and 59.1% in the second half. Much of the reason for this high percentage with the Wildcats ability to get layups off their offense and, for the first time in this year’s Big Ten season, consistently finish them. While therewere a few misses (Michael Thompson) and some scary makes (Ivan Peljusic) the ‘Cats finished more plays than they had in a long while. This ability to finish or get fouled made the difference. Unlike the Purdue game where missed layup and free throws allowed the Boilermaker comeback, today NU kept Minnesota at arms length with consistent play near the hoop and 78% free throw shooting. Extra credit at the line has to go to Kevin Coble who was 9-of-9 that was big as Coble struggled from the field (5-of-13 overall, 1-of-5 3PT). One slight issue is Michael Thompson who made only 1-of-4 free throws. The point guard needs to do better, especially since NU doesn’t really have a clear backup for Thompson who can handle pressure as well.

Another area of note was the play of NU’s front line against the large Minnesota post players. NU’s combo of Kyle Rowley, Luka Mirkovic, and Ivan Peljusic played very well. Mirkovic was especially solid grabbing 5 rebounds and playing tough defense inside. Minnesota only out-rebounded NU by two. Credit for that goes to all of NU’s front court players and Jeremy Nash who led NU with 6 rebounds. Another player of note for NU was Ivan Peljusic who also played well on defense and although he didn’t get big rebound numbers, he did occupy space. Rowley only played ten minutes, and although he did some good things, some weaknesses also were exposed. He needs to go up strong. Early on he was rejected when he tried a one hand finger- roll layup. He needs to use his size to his advantage both on offense and defense. At times Rowley is a small 7-0 feet because he doesn’t jump quick and tries to play more of a finesse game. I think Rowley can improve on this with a little more aggressive approach and probably getting into slightly better shape.

Finally, let me I was very impressed with NU’s defensive game plan. NU played some brief man-to-man, used the 2-3, and finally settled in with the 1-3-1 once it looked as if Nash was on the court to stay. This is the type of game plan NU needs. The ability to change defenses and give teams another look really makes it much tougher for teams to prepare for NU. Against Michigan State, I hope to see a similar variety of defenses.