All-Big Ten 'Cats

Big Ten Freshman of the Year Drew Crawford

Four NU players got awarded with honors tonight as the All-Big Ten teams from both coaches and the media were released. The highlight for NU was Drew Crawford winning Freshman of the Year from the media. Crawford really struggled at the end of the regular season, but he was big for NU in the team’s biggest wins and certainly outplayed the majority of the other Big Ten freshmen when you look at the season from start to end.

John Shurna was awarded 2nd-team All-Big Ten. In conference games Shurna actually tied for the Big Ten scoring lead at 20.1 ppg, but the truth is the Big Ten was stacked this season with great talent. There is no shame in Shurna being 2nd-team as just a sophomore.

Two other Wildcats got honors. Jeremy Nash was rightly on the Big Ten’s All-Defense team and Juice Thompson was honorable mention All-Big Ten. Perhaps what should give the greatest hope to NU fans is that three of those players, plus former All-Big honoree Kevin Coble, will be in the Wildcat lineup next season.

I’ll release my second annual Welsh-Ryan Ramblings awards after NU’s season comes an official close. I hope it takes awhile.

Forecasting the Big Ten Tournament

The matchups for the 2010 Big Ten Tournament are now set thanks to wins today by Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Minnesota. Northwestern is the 7-seed and, as expected, will rematch with 10-seed Indiana who just beat the Wildcats in the regular season finale. Another interesting rematch exists in the 4 vs 5 game where 4-seed Wisconsin and 5-seed Illinois will meet to decide their season series. Below are my thoughts on all 10 games in the Big Ten Tournament as I predict who will come out victorious and take home the Big Ten’s automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament.

Round 1

Game 1
#8 Michigan vs #9 Iowa
WRR Pick: Michigan
I’m picking Michigan in part because Manny Harris is the type of player who can carry a team in the postseason, but he’s Mr. Inconsistent, so really I’m picking the Wolverines because I don’t think Iowa’s young team is ready or talented enough to compete in the postseason.

Game 2
#7 Northwestern vs #10 Indiana
WRR: Northwestern
I like the Wildcats to win the season series over the Hoosiers. Yes, it might be a pro-IU crowd, but it isn’t IU’s building as it was on Saturday when it took overtime for the Hoosiers to win. I think NU will learn from Saturday’s mistakes and get by the Hoosiers in Round 1.

Game 3
#6 Minnesota vs #11 Penn State
WRR Pick: Penn State
I don’t think anybody envies Minnesota’s 6-seed. Penn State has become a very good team in the last month and Minnesota will find out just how good when the Nittany Lions beat them.

Quarterfinal Round

Game 4
#1 Ohio State vs #8 Michigan
WRR Pick: Ohio State
This might be the Big Ten’s most hotly contested rivalry, but I don’t expect much of a contest here. I think the Buckeyes roll to the semi-final behind Big Ten Player of the Year Evan Turner.

Game 5
#4 Wisconsin vs #5 Illinois
WRR Pick: Illinois
I think Illinois is going to be a team on a mission after Sunday’s loss. They need to win to even get sniffed by the NCAA Selection Committee. Also, Demetri McCamey needs to show he isn’t the player who nearly got into a fight with his coach on the bench, but is in fact the guy who nearly set a single season record for assists after an early season benching.

Game 6
#2 Purdue vs #7 Northwestern
WRR Pick: Purdue
I think this is where NU’s road problems really show up. Yes, Indy is closer to the IU campus, but Purdue has a lot more to play for and their fans will know that and descend on Conseco Fieldhouse. I think those fans help push a Boilermaker team that is adjusting to the loss of Robbie Hummel to victory. On the positive side, I think the win over Indiana clinches NU’s NIT bid.

Game 7
#3 Michigan State vs #11 Penn State
WRR Pick: Michigan State
Penn State will make Michigan State work for this victory just as they did twice this year. When it is all said and done, though, I think Tom Izzo will be able to orchestrate a narrow win for MSU.

Semifinal Round

Game 8
#1 Ohio State vs #5 Illinois
WRR Pick: Ohio State
This game will be much closer than either of the two meetings these teams had during the regular season. However, Evan Turner, William Buford, and David Lighty are simply that much better than Illinois’s backcourt of McCamey, DJ Richardson, and Brandon Paul. I also think Dallas Lauderdale can push around Mike Tisdale.

Game 9
#2 Purdue vs #3 Michigan State
WRR: Michigan State
When these teams met the first time MSU star Kalin Lucas played on an injured ankle and Purdue beat his Spartans. The second time, Purdue played without Robbie Hummel and MSU won. With Hummel still out, Lucas and the Spartans will win.

Big Ten Tournament Championship Game

#1 Ohio State vs #3 Michigan State
WRR Pick: Michigan State
No disrespect to Purdue, but considering they don’t have Hummel, I think this final pits the Big Ten’s two top teams right now. Ohio State probably has more talent, but I think after having lost to the Buckeyes earlier in the year, Tom Izzo will have a better idea of how to exploit OSU’s lack of depth. I expect the Spartans to rotate their athletic bigs against Lauderdale, pressure the Buckeye guards to cause turnovers, and get away with a close victory and the Big Ten Tournament Title.

What does everybody else think? Share your predictions for NU’s run and the tourney’s champ below.

Big Game in Evanston on Thursday

Thursday the Wildcats play Purdue at home and I see this as perhaps the season’s defining game. Starting 0-3 in conference is bad, but starting 0-4 including two home losses is even worse. Now, I’m not saying the Wildcats will repeat least year’s 1-17 debacle if they lose Thursday, but I do think a loss makes finishing above .500 overall very tough.

If you look at the rest of the schedule, the only sure win NU has is against Chicago State on February 4th, though, at home against Indiana on January 28th is looking more and more like a sure thing as well. Other than those two games, I’m not sure NU will be favored in any other contests. The best chance NU has to win on the road is at Indiana on February 25th. They might be favored in that game or against Iowa either time, but it depends on how those teams play over the next few weeks. I'm not as down on Iowa as some. I think the Hawkeyes have really good talent, they just don't seem to have put things together yet. In fact, they somewhat remind me of NU.

The positive here is that although NU might not be the favorite in many more contests this season, I do think NU has the potential to matchup well against a number of Big Ten teams. Although we haven’t seen it thus far during the Big Ten season, this NU team matches up better against the larger Big Ten teams than any of NU’s recent teams. The freshmen big men NU has like Kyle Rowley, Luka Mirkovic, and Davide Curletti have great potential. As the year goes on I expect these guys will get better each game. They might struggle at first against some of the Big Ten’s larger teams (MSU and Wisconsin showed this), but hopefully as the year gets better they’ll get more comfortable against Big Ten competition.

Also, if Craig Moore, Kevin Coble, and John Shurna return to the shooting form they showed earlier this season NU will be able to stay in most games. This area does concern me because I worry NU’s recent struggles in shooting are the result not of a slump, but of the fact that it is much harder for NU’s so-so athletes to get off shoots against Big Ten competition. My hope, though, is that some of strategies employed in wins over Florida State and DePaul (i.e. getting Juice and Coble to the hoop) can create more open shots on the outside.


Realistically I think I see NU with 14 wins this year. They can beat Chicago State and I don’t think 5 Big Ten wins is out of the question. However, improved shooting and better play on the inside, especially rebounding, could boost that total. The only two games I feel NU has almost no chance in are at Michigan State and at Minnesota, and NU has played Minnesota well in recent years.

Some Quick Thoughts on the Big Ten

After watching games over the last two days I offer a few very quick thoughts...

Losing to Michigan State by 11 isn’t impressive, but it’s not unimpressive either. The Spartans are the best team in the Big Ten and I see them edging out Wisconsin for the Big Ten title.

Speaking of Wisconsin, they are also a very good team, but they shouldn’t be good enough to beat anybody by 29 points. They are just aren’t that dominate of a team. I expect them to win a lot of games in a manner similar to how they best Penn State.

Penn State got lucky when they played Purdue without Robbie Hummel and Chris Kramer. While the Lions are much better, I think it’s a shame NU doesn’t have them in Evanston.

Illinois is way better than I expected. They play as a team more than last year and seem to shoot the ball much better from the free throw line and three.

Indiana and Iowa aren’t good, but they’ve got some decent players. I wouldn’t chalk these teams up as four wins for NU. Getting two wins should probably be the expectation. Getting three would be fantastic.

Michigan might have the most raw talent in the league. I am really impressed with Harris and Sims, but they have a collection of solid players around them as well.

The Rest of the Year: What to Expect

One of the hot topics in the Wildcat fan community right now is what to expect from the Wildcats for the rest of the year. With the 'Cats off to a 6-1 start many optimists are appearing in NU fan circles where once there were only pessimists.

Let me say I hate to dampen the enthusiasm of any ‘Cat Backer, but I highly doubt NU’s team will maintain their .857 winning percentage or their now #5 RPI rank the rest of the year. However, I do think this year will be far more successful than any since the 2001-2002 season. So what should fans expect for the season’s final 22 games? Let’s discuss.

Non-Conference

Northwestern has four non-conference games left this season. Three occur before the start of the Big Ten season and then NU plays Chicago State on February 4th. The most realistic expectation for these four games is a 3-1 record. The one likely loss is on the road at Stanford. Although I’d like to believe Northwestern can beat the Cardinal I just don’t see it happening. That said, a win in Palo Alto is not impossible. Stanford is not nearly as strong as they have been in recent years. They lost Head Coach Trent Johnson to LSU this off season and the Lopez brothers entered the NBA.

So why don’t I see a NU win? It has more to do with NU than Stanford. I just don’t see the extremely young Wildcats winning on the road in their first extended road trip. Freshmen traditionally don’t play well on the road and a trip two time zones away from home is not going to be easy on Shurna, Rowley, and the other youngsters. I do, however, hold out hope the ‘Cats can learn from the experience and be ready to win on the road 11 days later at Penn State.

Conference

The Big Ten plays 18 conference games this year. I’d say a 6-12 or 7-11 record for the Wildcats is very realistic. I’m not going to predict any specific games at this point as I believe that’s premature. For example, if Iowa leading scorer Anthony Tucker remains suspended beating Iowa twice is entirely possible. On the other hand, if Tucker comes back it could be hard to beat the Hawks anywhere. Also, at this point Indiana looks terrible. I would almost expect Northwestern to beat the Hoosiers twice. However, NU doesn’t travel to Bloomington until February 25th and by then the young Hoosiers might put things together. Another key game is the Big Ten opener at Penn State. The last few years NU has struggled mightily against the Lions, but this year NU couldn’t ask for a better set of circumstances to open the league on the road. Not only will Penn State’s students not be present, but I suspect the vast majority of PSU fans and alumni who are able will be in Pasadena at the Rose Bowl.

Now, if NU does beat IU (twice), Iowa (at least once), and PSU (once) that brings the ‘Cats to a total of four Big Ten wins. Where will the other two or three come from? Again, I don’t really want to guess. I will say, however, I believe getting the four or so home wins NU needs to post six or seven league wins will be incumbent on Welsh-Ryan Arena proving the ‘Cats a home court advantage. Step number one in this area will be a raucous student section. FSU was a great step in this direction. I hope what we see after break is that good in terms of student attendance and excitement or better.

Overall, let’s hope NU can win at least 15 or so games this year and get a shot at a NIT or CBI invitation.

Looking Around the Big Ten

Currently the Big Ten stands as follows:

Minnesota 6-0
Illinois 6-0
Ohio State 3-0
Penn State 6-1
Iowa 6-1
Purdue 5-1
Michigan 5-1
Wisconsin 5-1
Michigan State 3-1
Northwestern 3-1
Indiana 4-2


Northwestern’s opponents this week come into the week with a record of 14-1. That seems to make for a pretty tough week of basketball. I’ll have reports on that throughout the week, but today I want to focus a little bit on the rest of the Big Ten. A lot of people seem to think the Big Ten will be down this year, but I’m not so sure. A quick look at the standings shows a conference which has for the most part handled its non-conference opposition. Let’s take a look at a few teams:

Illinois: I’m not sure Illinois is really as good as their record shows, but this team is much better than it was last year. They played fantastic at Vanderbilt and won several close games at South Padre Island. The biggest difference I believe between Illinois of this year and last is that they can now make free throws.

Ohio State: Ohio State has only played three games so they are hard to judge. My only comment is that in watching them play Bowling Green I was unimpressed with super-freshman B.J. Mullins. I’m not saying Mullins won’t be a good player, but I don’t think as much an instant impact guy as Oden and Koufus.

Purdue: Purdue is probably my pick to win the league at this point. I believe they are the best team and have the best player in the league in forward Robbie Hummel. Even their one loss, in overtime to # 11 Oklahoma in the NIT Season Tip-Off Championship, was impressive. We’ll learn even more about Purdue when they play Duke on Tuesday.

Michigan: Michigan has perhaps the Big Ten’s best win of the year with their victory over UCLA. Of course, they almost had the Big Ten’s worst loss when they just barely beat Savannah State 66-64 in overtime. I am very impressed with DeShawn Sims and Manny Harris who I believe could take John Beilein back to the NCAA tournament.

Michigan State: The Spartans struggled with Wichita State today and got pounded by Maryland on Thanksgiving. Still, they are a very strong team. When they play North Carolina on Wednesday we should get a better sense of the Spartans. The key is for the very talented Raymar Morgan to play much more consistently.

Indiana: The Hoosiers aren’t good right now, but anybody who thinks they’ll stay down is way off. Freshman Nick Williams had a career game against Cornell today and forward Tom Pritchard has the potential to be a regular double-double guy.

I’ll reserve my thoughts on the rest of the league for later, but I will say that it seems Todd Lickliter and Tubby Smith are fast making Iowa and Minnesota dangerous. I sure hope Bill Carmody can keep up.

Set Your Tivos…
The Big Ten Network will not only televise tomorrow’s game against UC-Riverside, but will also air the January 26, 2005 game between Northwestern and Iowa in which Michael Jenkins’s high bouncing buzzer beater propelled the ‘Cats to victory. I’ll have some personal memories of that game up later.