Post BTT Thoughts on the Postseason

Bill Carmody said in his postgame that he expected Northwestern to make the NIT. That’s a nice thought, but I doubt Bill Carmody really spends much time analyzing the NIT selection process. Those that do, NITology and The Bracket Project both say NU isn’t likely to get an NIT bid. That’s disappointing, but it’s not unreasonable. In fact, unlike last season when I pretty much called the NIT selection committee a collection of fools for not making NU a top-4 seed, I wouldn’t be at all surprised or upset if they pass on NU this season. As of Friday, 7 conference champs from 1-bid leagues had lost in their conference tournaments. As a result, 7 of the 8 spots in the NIT for 7 or 8-seeds are essentially filled. Unless Northwestern truly passes the so called “eye-ball test” because they are a Big Ten team with 20 wins who beat Purdue and Illinois in January, I doubt the NIT is going to invite them and make them a 6-seed. Heck, even Illinois State who at 22-10 seemed a lock for at least a 6-seed in the NIT is now in danger of dropping to the CBI because of the influx of conference tourney losers.

To be totally honest, I bleed as much purple as anyone, and it’s painful to say, but I don’t think I’d vote for Northwestern were I in the committee room with C.M. Newton and NIT Selection Committee. What exactly is Northwestern’s case? Essentially it rests on 20 wins in 33 games and the fact they have wins over Purdue, Illinois, and Notre Dame. The problem as I see it is all those wins occurred at home or on a neutral court and the most recent was January 23rd. In fact, half of NU’s 20 wins occurred before the calendar even flipped to 2010. Allegedly, the selection committees have stopped worrying about a team’s record in their last 10 games, but I think that’ll still come into play as far as the human element. Committee members, just like any fan, know that Northwestern hasn’t exactly been trending upwards late in the year. That makes them potentially a very quick exit and not the competitive team a committee wants to see in the postseason. NU’s record on the road is also problematic. The selection committee has to consider wins away from home and while NU has a win at N.C. State (who will also be competing for an NIT berth) they really haven’t performed away from Welsh-Ryan Arena. They are 2-8 in true road games and 5-9 overall away from home. Even worse, NU’s RPI is at 113. That’s not impressive compared to a team like Texas Tech who with an RPI of 68 is projected into the same 5-seed NU received last year.

I guess the good news is that because of the NITs automatic bids the CBI and CIT will feature a number of “name” teams. The odds are that Alabama, Harvard, former NU opponents N.C. State and Iowa State, and perhaps even North Carolina will be shutout of the NIT. That could make for some very interesting matchups for either the CBI or CIT which will hopefully occur at Welsh-Ryan Arena.

Changing Expectations For Northwestern

Before this season Northwestern featured the greatest expectations ever for the their basketball program. The Wildcats were expected by virtually every prognosticator and fan to make the NCAA tournament for the first time.

Those expectations changed on November 11th when it was announced star forward Kevin Coble had suffered a lisfrac fracture and was likely out for the season. When Coble was confirmed as being out for the season most people wrote the Wildcats off as a potential NCAA team.

Expectations changed again on Tuesday night when the Wildcats traveled to N.C. State and beat the Wolfpack solidly in a 65-53 win to move their record to 6-1 with three wins over BCS foes. At that point many people put the Wildcats back into the NCAA tournament discussion.

I think it is amazing how quickly the expectations from the Wildcats have changed during the last three weeks. Personally, at the start of the year I saw the Wildcats as a team that could win 20 games and would likely make the NCAA tournament. After the loss of Kevin Coble, I didn’t think NU would drop into oblivion, but I have to admit my expectation was more of 16 wins and a bid to either the NIT or the CBI.

Now, I think the question is how to expectations change with the 6-1 record? What does 6-1 mean? Should NU fans temper their expectations? Should they start booking flights to NCAA Tournament spots? These are tough questions because they involve trying to evaluate not only what Northwestern has done, but the actual talent level of the teams they have played to this point.

Looking first at the Wildcats themselves, you have to be impressed with the way Northwestern has played. The Wildcats have gotten spectacular hero performances from a number of different players in their six wins. This proven NU is a very versatile team which features scoring options from multiple positions. Michael “Juice” Thompson seems to have settled into his role as a team leader and go to clutch player. Alex Marcotullio provides some of the fire and three point range fans feared NU might have lost with the graduation of Craig Moore. Jeremy Nash has shown he can start and score and rebound at a starters level. John Shurna has shown he is a high-level athlete that can get to the hoop and finish with authority. All of these players have stepped up at times and looked like players who can take NU to never before seen success.

On the other hand, NU hasn’t been exactly prefect this season. They still lack a solid producer at the center position. On given days Kyle Rowley, Luka Mirkovic, and Davide Curletti have looked fantastic and awful. Though he isn’t a true center, I still think Curletti might be the most consistent of the three as he makes less mistakes. However, Rowley and Mirkovic probably have stronger upsides so I understand why Coach Carmody uses them more often. Another player who has moments, but who NU needs to step up a bit more is Drew Crawford. The freshman guard had 22 points against Liberty, but hasn’t shown much consistency with his outside shot. Given his clear ability to drive, I think showing more consistent three point range is a key to Crawford’s future success.

Looking at the teams NU has beat shows some positive and negative signs as well. Northern Illinois looks like a team which will compete for honors in the MAC. While the MAC isn’t exactly the Big Ten the fact NU hammered the Huskies speaks well of NU.

Iowa State looked great to me at times (better than Notre Dame), but according to the experts doesn’t exactly look like a team which is going to challenge Texas or Kansas for the Big 12 title. After the loss to NU, they then lost to Northern Iowa. Northern Iowa should probably win the Missouri Valley. Still, if Iowa State is good enough to be even a middle-tier Big 12 team, that means they’re probably better than at least 3 or 4 Big Ten teams.

N.C. State is probably a weaker team than ISU. Tracy Smith inside is a stud and Scott Wood is supposed to be a shooter, but overall N.C. State struggled with ball control and shooting. Still, N.C. State is an ACC team that NU beat on the road and I was impressed with the Wolfpack crowd. Therefore, even if N.C. State wasn’t a super team, NU at least showed the ability to win in a hostile environment.

The real benchmark to answer how could is NU at this point might be Notre Dame. Notre Dame entered the NU game ranked #23. Then again, the Fighting Irish didn’t distinguish themselves to me in that contest. I really thought Iowa State was the better of the two teams NU faced at the UIC Pavilion. However, Notre Dame did have a great player in Luke Harangody that NU handled fantastically in the post. Defensively, Luka Mirkovic played his best game at NU. Notre Dame did miss a number of open shots, but perhaps that was because of how NU frustrated the Irish with some fantastic defense.

The truth is while NU hasn’t beaten a great team yet, they’ve beaten some good teams. Even more importantly, the Wildcats have excelled defensively. They held two of the three BCS teams they beat to less than 60 points. NU has also shown significantly improved strength in rebounding this year. Even guards Jeremy Nash and Alex Marcotullio have hit the glass with authority. Considering that defense and rebounding should show up every game I think NU should be able to compete with everybody they play. Does that mean they’re a shoe-in for the NCAA Tournament? Okay, probably not. But those who wrote the ‘Cats chanes of making the Big Dance off after the loss of Coble clearly made a mistake.

67-65 Victory Over Iowa State Gives Northwestern Chicago Invitational Challenge Title

John Shurna scored 23 points in a follow up effort to yesterday’s 25 to lead Northwestern to a 67-65 victory over Iowa State and the Chicago Invitational Challenge Championship. The win gave the Wildcats their first in-season tournament title since December 30, 1993. Shurna’s 48 points in two days gave him the tournament’s MVP award. Along with Shurna’s MVP honors, Jeremy Nash and Michael “Juice” Thompson represented NU on the All-Tournament Team for the CIC.

In tonight’s game Shurna scored 17 points in the first half. When NU got off to a very slow start, it was 9 early points by Shurna which kept NU in the game. Although Iowa State adjusted to keep Shurna somewhat quiet after his early outburst of points, the Wildcat sophomore still kept himself involved in the NU offensive by dishing out key assists to Luka Mirkovic, Jeremy Nash, and Drew Crawford. Shurna also once again hit the boards hard and helped NU almost match Iowa State rebound for rebound despite the fact ISU had a much larger lineup. Shurna finished the day with 7 rebounds. He totaled 15 for the two days.

Juice Thompson added 16 points against Iowa State on 6-of-9 shooting. He once again looked comfortable both shooting the three and driving towards the basket to shoot his soft floater. If Thompson continues to show such versatility he will be very tough to defend. Credit also has to go to Thompson for his ironman performances this season. He is averaging nearly 40 minutes a game and he doesn’t seem tired at all.

The Wildcats other all-tournament selection was Jeremy Nash. Nash had 10 points tonight including two huge threes which helped NU get back into the game in the second half when Iowa State took a 9-point lead. He also made two clutch free throws which proved to be the game’s winning margin.

A number of other Wildcats played well, but I’ll give special recognition to Alex Marcotullio and Davide Curletti. Marcotullio once again made a couple big threes and showed he wasn’t afraid to keep shooting after a miss. Davide Curletti came off the bench and played excellent defense on Iowa State star (and future NBA draft pick) Craig Brackins. I truly believe that despite being the smallest of NU’s three centers, Curletti is the best post defender on the NU roster. He is also athletic enough that he can get rebounds against bigger guys. I’m not saying he should play 40 minutes, but he should get action in every contest. NU needs to play all three centers for them to learn, but right now I think Curletti should be getting minutes similar to Luka Mirkovic and Kyle Rowley should be the one playing more of a supporting role. One skill which could help Curletti get more minutes is showing the ability to knock down the three. Curletti is a good shooter, but he hadn’t really shown that skill until knocking down a huge three pointer to give NU a 6 point lead in tonight’s game at 61-55. If Curletti or Luka Mirkovic can knock down threes it will make the Princeton Offense nearly impossible to stop.

Shurna's 25 Points Push 'Cats Past Fighting Irish

Northwestern’s decentralized hero system continued Friday night as sophomore John Shurna had his best game of the season and his career with 25 points and 8 rebounds against the 23rd ranked Fighting Irish. Shurna made 9-of-18 shots, but what was impressive was aside from hitting some key threes, including a huge momentum swinger at the end of the 1st half, Shurna also displayed a solid ability to score inside. Notre Dame’s Ben Hansbrough was matched up on Shurna for much of the game and NU successfully used Shurna’s height advantage to get inside looks. They weren’t always easy looks, and Shurna didn’t convert all of them, but he made enough clutch shots to help NU hold the lead in the second half.

Aside from Shurna, NU also got fantastic production from Michael “Juice” Thompson and Alex Marcotullio. Thompson scored 20 points and made 4 free key free throws to seal the game in the final 48 seconds. Marcotullio totaled 13 points and made 3 big three pointers. His final three pushed a 58-56 NU lead to 61-56 and was essentially the shot which won the game for Northwestern. What I like about Marcotullio is that he already has shown a fearless quality similar to former Wildcat shooting guard Craig Moore. Marcotullio had a series of misses, including one which hit the side of the backboard, but he didn’t stop shooting. When he releases the ball he shows great confidence and I have no doubt he believes he can hit any shot he takes. Head Coach Bill Carmody even indicated that the play which resulted in Marcotullio’s final shot was supposed to go to Juice Thompson, but Marcotullio pulled the trigger when he saw the open space. That’s the type of gutsy play Marcotullio brings to NU. He also plays excellent defense and showed no fear attacking inside. He grabbed four rebounds and made a great pass to Luka Mirkovic for an easy two. Any team that thinks of Marcotullio as only a one-dimensional shooter is selling the Wildcat guard very short.

Luke Mirkovic is something of an unsung hero in tonight’s Wildcat win as well. Mirkovic scored enough points to make a dent in the scorebook, but where he really excelled was playing defense and keeping ND’s Luke Harangody off the glass. NU ran their 1-3-1 much of the game and it wasn’t always Mirkovic’s job to box out Harangody, but when it was Mirkovic won that battle more often than not. Jeremy Nash also deserves credit for his play in the 1-3-1. Thanks to Marcotullio’s ability to play the top of that defense, Nash was able to play on the wing and make himself available for more rebounds. Northwestern’s defense deserves great credit as they held a team who averaged more than 80 points a game to just 58 points.

Looking Ahead to Iowa State…With NU playing Iowa State tomorrow at 7:00 PM CT, I’m not going to write a full preview of that contest, but here’s a preview in short: The Cyclones are 6-0 and beat St. Louis University 65-54 on Friday. In comparing them to a Big Ten team they are most similar to Tubby Smith’s Minnesota Golden Gophers in that they play a very aggressive defensive style and try to win by forcing 20+ turnovers a game from opponents. They also have a star big man in center Craig Brackins. With the way NU played Harangody ‘Cat fans should be confident in facing Brackins. On the other hand, with NU’s 1-5 record against Tubby Smith’s similar system, maybe NU fans shouldn’t be as confident. Despite that lack of success, I think NU’s experience with Minnesota will work in the Wildcats favor while Iowa State hasn’t seen a team similar to Northwestern. Northwestern, 61 Iowa State, 60