Post BTT Thoughts on the Postseason

Bill Carmody said in his postgame that he expected Northwestern to make the NIT. That’s a nice thought, but I doubt Bill Carmody really spends much time analyzing the NIT selection process. Those that do, NITology and The Bracket Project both say NU isn’t likely to get an NIT bid. That’s disappointing, but it’s not unreasonable. In fact, unlike last season when I pretty much called the NIT selection committee a collection of fools for not making NU a top-4 seed, I wouldn’t be at all surprised or upset if they pass on NU this season. As of Friday, 7 conference champs from 1-bid leagues had lost in their conference tournaments. As a result, 7 of the 8 spots in the NIT for 7 or 8-seeds are essentially filled. Unless Northwestern truly passes the so called “eye-ball test” because they are a Big Ten team with 20 wins who beat Purdue and Illinois in January, I doubt the NIT is going to invite them and make them a 6-seed. Heck, even Illinois State who at 22-10 seemed a lock for at least a 6-seed in the NIT is now in danger of dropping to the CBI because of the influx of conference tourney losers.

To be totally honest, I bleed as much purple as anyone, and it’s painful to say, but I don’t think I’d vote for Northwestern were I in the committee room with C.M. Newton and NIT Selection Committee. What exactly is Northwestern’s case? Essentially it rests on 20 wins in 33 games and the fact they have wins over Purdue, Illinois, and Notre Dame. The problem as I see it is all those wins occurred at home or on a neutral court and the most recent was January 23rd. In fact, half of NU’s 20 wins occurred before the calendar even flipped to 2010. Allegedly, the selection committees have stopped worrying about a team’s record in their last 10 games, but I think that’ll still come into play as far as the human element. Committee members, just like any fan, know that Northwestern hasn’t exactly been trending upwards late in the year. That makes them potentially a very quick exit and not the competitive team a committee wants to see in the postseason. NU’s record on the road is also problematic. The selection committee has to consider wins away from home and while NU has a win at N.C. State (who will also be competing for an NIT berth) they really haven’t performed away from Welsh-Ryan Arena. They are 2-8 in true road games and 5-9 overall away from home. Even worse, NU’s RPI is at 113. That’s not impressive compared to a team like Texas Tech who with an RPI of 68 is projected into the same 5-seed NU received last year.

I guess the good news is that because of the NITs automatic bids the CBI and CIT will feature a number of “name” teams. The odds are that Alabama, Harvard, former NU opponents N.C. State and Iowa State, and perhaps even North Carolina will be shutout of the NIT. That could make for some very interesting matchups for either the CBI or CIT which will hopefully occur at Welsh-Ryan Arena.

Changing Expectations For Northwestern

Before this season Northwestern featured the greatest expectations ever for the their basketball program. The Wildcats were expected by virtually every prognosticator and fan to make the NCAA tournament for the first time.

Those expectations changed on November 11th when it was announced star forward Kevin Coble had suffered a lisfrac fracture and was likely out for the season. When Coble was confirmed as being out for the season most people wrote the Wildcats off as a potential NCAA team.

Expectations changed again on Tuesday night when the Wildcats traveled to N.C. State and beat the Wolfpack solidly in a 65-53 win to move their record to 6-1 with three wins over BCS foes. At that point many people put the Wildcats back into the NCAA tournament discussion.

I think it is amazing how quickly the expectations from the Wildcats have changed during the last three weeks. Personally, at the start of the year I saw the Wildcats as a team that could win 20 games and would likely make the NCAA tournament. After the loss of Kevin Coble, I didn’t think NU would drop into oblivion, but I have to admit my expectation was more of 16 wins and a bid to either the NIT or the CBI.

Now, I think the question is how to expectations change with the 6-1 record? What does 6-1 mean? Should NU fans temper their expectations? Should they start booking flights to NCAA Tournament spots? These are tough questions because they involve trying to evaluate not only what Northwestern has done, but the actual talent level of the teams they have played to this point.

Looking first at the Wildcats themselves, you have to be impressed with the way Northwestern has played. The Wildcats have gotten spectacular hero performances from a number of different players in their six wins. This proven NU is a very versatile team which features scoring options from multiple positions. Michael “Juice” Thompson seems to have settled into his role as a team leader and go to clutch player. Alex Marcotullio provides some of the fire and three point range fans feared NU might have lost with the graduation of Craig Moore. Jeremy Nash has shown he can start and score and rebound at a starters level. John Shurna has shown he is a high-level athlete that can get to the hoop and finish with authority. All of these players have stepped up at times and looked like players who can take NU to never before seen success.

On the other hand, NU hasn’t been exactly prefect this season. They still lack a solid producer at the center position. On given days Kyle Rowley, Luka Mirkovic, and Davide Curletti have looked fantastic and awful. Though he isn’t a true center, I still think Curletti might be the most consistent of the three as he makes less mistakes. However, Rowley and Mirkovic probably have stronger upsides so I understand why Coach Carmody uses them more often. Another player who has moments, but who NU needs to step up a bit more is Drew Crawford. The freshman guard had 22 points against Liberty, but hasn’t shown much consistency with his outside shot. Given his clear ability to drive, I think showing more consistent three point range is a key to Crawford’s future success.

Looking at the teams NU has beat shows some positive and negative signs as well. Northern Illinois looks like a team which will compete for honors in the MAC. While the MAC isn’t exactly the Big Ten the fact NU hammered the Huskies speaks well of NU.

Iowa State looked great to me at times (better than Notre Dame), but according to the experts doesn’t exactly look like a team which is going to challenge Texas or Kansas for the Big 12 title. After the loss to NU, they then lost to Northern Iowa. Northern Iowa should probably win the Missouri Valley. Still, if Iowa State is good enough to be even a middle-tier Big 12 team, that means they’re probably better than at least 3 or 4 Big Ten teams.

N.C. State is probably a weaker team than ISU. Tracy Smith inside is a stud and Scott Wood is supposed to be a shooter, but overall N.C. State struggled with ball control and shooting. Still, N.C. State is an ACC team that NU beat on the road and I was impressed with the Wolfpack crowd. Therefore, even if N.C. State wasn’t a super team, NU at least showed the ability to win in a hostile environment.

The real benchmark to answer how could is NU at this point might be Notre Dame. Notre Dame entered the NU game ranked #23. Then again, the Fighting Irish didn’t distinguish themselves to me in that contest. I really thought Iowa State was the better of the two teams NU faced at the UIC Pavilion. However, Notre Dame did have a great player in Luke Harangody that NU handled fantastically in the post. Defensively, Luka Mirkovic played his best game at NU. Notre Dame did miss a number of open shots, but perhaps that was because of how NU frustrated the Irish with some fantastic defense.

The truth is while NU hasn’t beaten a great team yet, they’ve beaten some good teams. Even more importantly, the Wildcats have excelled defensively. They held two of the three BCS teams they beat to less than 60 points. NU has also shown significantly improved strength in rebounding this year. Even guards Jeremy Nash and Alex Marcotullio have hit the glass with authority. Considering that defense and rebounding should show up every game I think NU should be able to compete with everybody they play. Does that mean they’re a shoe-in for the NCAA Tournament? Okay, probably not. But those who wrote the ‘Cats chanes of making the Big Dance off after the loss of Coble clearly made a mistake.

Three Points December 2nd

1. I want to link to website known as Stadium Journey which recently visited Welsh-Ryan Arena. You read and comment on their assessment of NU’s home venue here: http://stadiumjourney.com/?p=917

2. NU’s women’s basketball team has matched the men’s team’s 6-1 record so far this year. The means that the NU basketball programs are a combined 12-2. The next game for the women’s team is December 3rd when they host Clemson in the women’s version of the Big Ten/ACC Challenge.

3. I urge fans to temper their expectations as the Big Ten is seriously tough this year, but here are some accomplishments from last night which NU players, coaches, and fans have to be proud of. Some of these are long time (or first time) feats and some are just good signals.

- Won a Big Ten/ACC Challenge game on the road for the first time

- Won 2 years in a row in the Big Ten/ACC Challenge for the first time

- Beat a non-conference BCS team on the road for the first time since Dec. 2005

- Blocked 9 shots in the game

- Won in spite of 17 turnovers

- Grabbed 10 offensive rebounds

- Beat 3 straight non-conference BCS schools (I feel like this could be a first)

- Won 5 straight games for first time since 2006

Northwestern Survives N.C. State’s Challenge

Kevin Coble might be out, but John Shurna once again helped fill the void

For a game which Northwestern won by a seemingly comfortable margin of 65-53, and which NU lead by as many as 14, this was a major dog fight. Much to the credit of Sidney Lowe’s team, N.C. State never gave up the battle even when NU looked to have control of the contest. I think this actually turned out to be a great thing for Northwestern. The Wildcats learned a lot of positive things about themselves in the process of their successful effort to keep the Wolfpack comeback at bay. Other NU teams would have collapsed when the game went from 14 to 4, but this squad kept silencing the Wolfpack crowd.

The ESPNU broadcast team named Michael “Juice” Thompson the MVP of the contest and while I loved what Juice did tonight, I think I’d have picked Jeremy Nash. It seemed the Wolfpack run started when Nash got his fourth foul and had to go to the bench. I was also impressed, as I have been all year, with Nash’s all around game. Tonight he scored 12 points and grabbed 8 rebounds. This will only improve on his season averages which were about 8 points and 7 rebounds respectively. Nash’s ability to score just enough and hit the glass has been a huge help in making up the lost production of Kevin Coble. I should also credit Nash for his four assists and total confidence from the free throw line tonight. His production from a guy who was almost a non-factor on offense to someone who is a legitimate threat to score has been remarkable.

Of course, I also have to give a big thumbs up to Juice Thompson. He led NU’s offense with 22 points on 8-of-14 shooting. Many of those baskets came on great drives to the hoop in which he used his superior quickness to get easy buckets. If that becomes a regular part of Thompson’s arsenal that will make his ability to make passes to the corner for open shots easier. Thompson actually only had two assists tonight, but one of those two set up perhaps the biggest shot of the game. With N.C. State charging back into the contest and NU only up four, Thompson set up Alex Marcotullio for an open three which Marcotullio canned to put the ‘Cats back up seven. That was particularly big as it showed Marcotullio wasn’t fazed by his involvement in a controversial technical call just moments earlier. To be honest, I think of Alex Marcotullio we can say, “Nothing fazes him.” He is the type of competitor which makes a team a winning team and he’s doing that here at Northwestern.

One NU player who played great early in the game was John Shurna. He scored 10 of his 11 points in the first half. Those points even included another nice dunk. In the second half N.C. State clearly remembered Shurna was the Big Ten Player of the Week and started guarding him, but he once again got NU off to a great start. He also had 8 rebounds. One thing which will make opposing teams just put up their hands in frustration against Shurna will be if he starts making threes. He’s only 3-of-12 in his last two games, but I still think he’s due for an incredible hot streak from behind the arc.

I also want to add a comment on NU’s center position. This position remains an enigma to me. Tonight both Mirkovic and Rowley had nice moments. Rowley scored in the post early and blocked two shots. Luka hit two nice turnaround jumpers, two blocks, and grabbed 5 rebounds. However, both centers turned the ball over three times. That means NU had six of their 17 turnovers from one spot on the floor. Rowley is scary whenever he has the ball away from the hoop and Mirkovic seems to travel whenever he tries to score in the post. Again, I’m a strong believe these guys need PT to improve, but I’d really like to see them cut down on the turnovers before Big Ten season starts.

The bottom line, though, is this was a great win. NU is 6-1 and has four winnable nonconference games left before the Big Ten season starts. NU also has two very winnable non-conference games during Big Ten play which means NU will be favored to post 12 wins outside of the Big Ten. That’s big step towards the postseason.

Game 7: Northwestern Wildcats @ North Carolina State

The Matchup: Northwestern (5-1) @ North Carolina State (5-0)

Location: RBC Center (Raleigh, NC)

TV: ESPNU (6:00 PM CT Tuesday December 1st)
Radio: WIND 560 AM

Fun Fact: This is the second ACC/Big Ten Challenge meeting between N.C. State and Northwestern. N.C. won in Raleigh in 2002-03.

About the Game
This ACC/Big Ten Challenge game features two teams that were crowed tournament champions last week. Northwestern won the 4th Annual Chicago Invitational Challenge and N.C. State won the Glenn Wilkes Classic.

N.C. State used good defense to win that tournament as they held their opponents to 53.8 ppg. The Wolfpack didn’t exactly explode on offensive as they scored 65.2 ppg, but that total puts them and Northwestern very much in the same neighborhood. Basically, both teams want to slow the game enough that the winning margin is somewhere in the 60s or low 70s at the highest.

In terms of generating points, N.C. State looks to a pair of forwards to lead the offense. Senior Dennis Horner stands 6-9 and weighs 226 pounds. He averages 15.5 ppg (stat as of 11/28) and has made 7-of-12 three pointers this season. He is also a 90% free throw shooter so it is clear he is an excellent shooter. N.C. State’s other scoring forward is junior Tracy Smith. Smith is 21-of-47 this year, but has not tried a three pointer. He does, however, lead the team in free throw attempts and both offensive and defensive rebounds. It will be important NU keep him off the glass to prevent easy baskets.

Another interesting matchup for Northwestern will be 6-7 freshman guard Scott Wood. Wood is suppose to be a three point shooter, but so far this year he has struggled. He is shooting only about 30% from three. In the past, many struggling shooters have broken out against Northwestern and the 1-3-1 zone. Coach Carmody did an excellent job against Iowa State of not staying in the 1-3-1 when the Cyclones started to hit easy threes. Although it might be tempting to stick in the 1-3-1 against N.C. State because the Wolfpack have basically a 1-to-1 assist to turnover ratio, if Wood and Horner start hitting threes Carmody needs to be willing to go back to the matchup zone.

The tough part of the matchup will be that other than point guard Javier Gonzalez every Wolfpack starter is 6-6 or taller. Northwestern commonly plays three guys who are 6-4 or shorter. This means that NU will really need to crash the glass and will need to try and force some turnovers to compensate for Wolfpack offensive rebounds.

A lot of pressure will be on NU’s three-headed monster at center. All three NU centers have had strong moments this season, but they need to be more consistent. Though N.C. State is big overall, unless they play 7-1 238-pound freshman Jordan Vandenberg, the tallest player on the court will be the NU center. That means Rowley, Mirkovic, and Curletti should all be aggressively attacking the glass.


Prediction:
These teams seem very even as both have similar records and both play similar styles of basketball. Northwestern has an advantage it seems in that they take care of the ball better, but N.C. State seems statistically better at converting second chance points off of offensive rebounds. N.C. State also has an edge in that they are playing at home, but Northwestern has faced much stronger competition so far this season and although they have to travel, they do get an extra day off. Traditionally, teams struggle when facing the Princeton Offense with only one day of prep. Northwestern, 65 N.C. State, 63

NU to play at NC State in ACC/Big Ten Challenge

As was expected by many, Northwestern will be on the road in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge at NC State. The Wolfpack finished 2008-2009 with similar numbers to the Wildcats. They were 16-14 overall and 6-10 in the ACC. Northwestern was 17-14 overall and 8-10 in the Big Ten. On the face of it this looks like a good matchup for Northwestern because the Wildcats return four starters and four of their top five scorers. NC State on the other hand will lose their top three scorers. That said, NC State has singed a very solid recruiting class so the Woldpack should not be discounted. They will also have the advantage of playing at home. Northwestern is 3-7 in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge overall, but all three wins have been in home contests. The Wildcats are 0-5 on the road in the Challenge, including a 74-49 drubbing at the hands of NC State in the 2002 event. If Northwestern can beat this ACC opponent on the road it will be a major signal of program improvement. Not as significant as the win at Michigan State last year, but significant nonetheless. It’s a shame we have to wait till December 1st to find out what happens.