The N in NIT Stands for Northwestern

I was right the first time. This isn’t an NCAA team. They can’t rebound and their gimmick 1-3-1 defense finally blew up in their face in overtime the way I thought it would. Honestly, this is ridiculous. I know people out their love Bill Carmody and I’ll admit in many ways what Carmody has done this year has been amazing in the way he’s gotten the team to compete versus superior talent with no center and a former walk-on as a starter, however, at this point, I’m so sick of the way Northwestern approaches rebounding and defense I’m ready for another coach because after 12 years we know we’re still going to have to sit through these types of losses unless somebody shows up and teaches our players to rebound and play man-to-man defense because Bill Carmody sure won’t and I defy anybody to state otherwise. The worst part of this whole thing is I’m starting to think in some ways making the tournament would be the worst case scenario because we still won’t rebound or play defense and then people will start to think that’s okay. Guess what in the game of basketball not rebounding or playing man-to-man defense is NOT OKAY! Just please don’t let Phillips hire Bruce Weber who has managed to supervise one of the biggest collapses in Big Ten history (you know Illinois was in first place at 5-1 in early February) or Chris Collins whose never been a head coach and who hasn’t been anywhere except Duke and who people only like because he played for Duke. Bill Foster coached Duke to the Final Four. How’d that hire work out for Northwestern? I thought so. Hell, if you want a guy from the state of Illinois who hasn’t been a head coach hire Jerrance Howard at least he’s been in the state of Illinois to recruit more than one player in the last 15 years. Plus, it would drive all the U of I fans nuts to see Jerrance running the show in Evanston.

I guess the only positive here is that Northwestern should get a really high NIT seed. Of course, I’m not sure after all the NCAA hype that it’ll matter to NU’s players, but at least I hope they’ll take some pride in their efforts and play hard. I’m let’s been honest, they’re still the Northwestern basketball team. They aren’t too good for the NIT.

This game was the most physical game I’ve seen this year in the Big Ten and I just don’t think Northwestern responded to Michigan’s physical effort other than a really nice game by Davide Curletti. John Shurna clearly looked like he didn’t have anything left late for the second time in three games and JerShon Cobb left his shots short all night looking like he simply isn’t in basketball shape yet. Perhaps, with Cobb getting in better shape Northwestern might have a shot at Michigan if the play in the Big Ten Tournament, after all, they lost in overtime twice to the Wolverines who are ranked in the top-15 in the nation. The problem is that at this point the Big Ten Tournament might be the best hope Northwestern has for an NCAA bid.

The fact is that this game was won by Michigan in a lot of ways and their physical presence is one of the biggest reasons, but I still place this on defense and rebounding. Statistically it looks like Northwestern wasn’t terrible in those areas, but Michigan made huge plays on offensive rebounds which turned the game on several occasions. Even worse, Northwestern still can’t play man-to-man defense for any length of time. That’s a problem and I it doesn’t seem any chance exists to correct it.

I guess my problem with Bill Carmody is that he doesn’t seem to be able to self-evaluate. If your team hasn’t played man-to-man defense or rebounded for 12 years don’t you think you’d try to something about that? Those are major areas of basketball! I know I would. Carmody apparently is too stubborn to do so and his team might luck out and make the tournament if they shoot well down the stretch, but if they shoot like they shot tonight making only three three point shots for less than 20% for the game that isn’t going to happen.

Wildcat Fans…Get Loud

Wildcat fans, it’s time to be loud and obnoxious Tuesday night just like you were on Saturday night. Michigan senior Stu Douglass told Ann Arbor.com the following, "When we go to Chicago and New York, there's always a bunch of Michigan alums," Douglass said. "It helps a little bit, that gym's pretty small and it doesn't get too loud.”

Make sure Stu knows you're there tomorrow.

Resume Game

If I were to honestly self-evaluate I’d probably have to admit that my constant harping on the fact that Northwestern isn’t an NCAA Tournament team has been a defense mechanism to prevent myself from once again being disappointed when Selection Sunday arrives. But for better or worse seeing the Wildcats play a fantastic start to finish game in front of a raucous Welsh-Ryan Arena on Saturday night has started to cause me to crack. I’m looking at the schedule from now until the Big Ten Tournament and I’ve come to the conclusion that with a win Tuesday night against Michigan the Wildcats will have the inside track at being the seventh Big Ten team in the NCAA Tournament field. I don’t want to get my hopes up, but the facts support that belief. The Northwestern Wildcats are on the threshold of history.

A little history was made on Saturday night when John Shurna set the NU record for career points. Shurna’s a great player and a great representative of Northwestern University. He’s a humble star who genuinely seems to simply appreciate the chance he’s been given by Bill Carmody and the NU staff to play college basketball. Perhaps it’s because Shurna wasn’t some type of basketball prodigy. He wasn’t a star as a freshman or sophomore in high school, didn’t even become a starter until his junior year, and wasn’t highly recruited by big conference schools other than Northwestern. That’s not the typical track for a guy who might be the Big Ten Player of the Year. The typical track is the one taken by many of the guys Shurna and his teammates face on most nights in the Big Ten.

Tuesday’s opponent, the Michigan Wolverines, bring some of those highly touted recruits to Evanston, but the fact is this is a team Northwestern can match up. The Wildcats lost to UM in overtime the first time the schools met and with a few more made free throws would have been the only team to win at Michigan this season. Part of the reason for this matchup is that Michigan isn’t huge size-wise. Starting center Jordan Morgan is about the same size as John Shurna and Davide Curletti. He’s got some athletic skill, but he won’t tower over the ‘Cats like Myers Leonard did. Along with Morgan the UM front court features 6-8 Evan Smotrycz. He’s a good three point shooter at 41%, but he’s not as athletic as NU’s Drew Crawford, Reggie Hearn, or JerShon Cobb meaning those guys have a shot to guard him man-to-man. I feel the same way about Zack Novack who is another good shooter, but shouldn’t be able to get away from the ‘Cats trio of athletic defenders. Plus, if Michigan wants to play man-to-man they better hope Morgan is in position to block shots because Tim Hardaway Jr. can only guard one of Hearn, Crawford, and Cobb. The other two should have positive matchups for getting into the paint.

Stopping Michigan for Northwestern will be a case of stopping Hardaway Jr. and Trey Burke from getting easy baskets at the rim and not letting Michigan get hot from three point range. I’d say that NU will start in the man-to-man and might stay in it much more than they have in past games. It’s possible NU will switch a lot in the man-to-man, but I think it is probably better than the 1-3-1 to contain Michigan. Look for Crawford to guard Hardaway and Hearn or Cobb to guard Burke with the other getting Smotrycz. That’ll leave Dave Sobolewski on Novack, but despite Novack’s height advantage I think he can handle the job.

On offense the key for Northwestern in their recent success has been Sobolewski and the rest of the supporting cast. I’d watch him closely, but I also thought that JerShon Cobb wasn’t that far off on his shots on Saturday. He just had a little bad luck. It wouldn’t surprise me if Cobb becomes the next complimentary scorer for Shurna and Drew Crawford. Both these teams are coming off of big wins, but the ‘Cats have home court advantage in this contest, not to mention the fact that this is essentially a tournament game for NU. Let’s hope the crowd handles it that way as well. I predict: Northwestern, 68 Michigan, 65

Northwestern Looks to Pickup Key Victory in Ann Arbor

Northwestern plays both of the Big Ten’s Michigan schools this week. The Wildcats travel to the University of Michigan on Wednesday night and host Michigan State on Saturday. With both teams ranked it is clear NU will be facing two tough tests, but essentially winning either game would be enough to place NU back into realistic discussion for the NCAA Tournament. Generally speaking road games are tougher, but it is possible that Northwestern matches up better with Michigan’s perimeter oriented style of play than Michigan State’s inside bruisers.

When one starts to talk about Michigan they have to begin with Tim Hardaway Jr. the talented sophomore forward. Hardaway scores 15.9ppg and has shown the ability to be explosive. In many ways he is similar to NU’s Drew Crawford. However, Hardaway is weaker three point shooter who makes less than 30% of his three point shots. Where Hardaway seems to have be able to outshine Crawford is he is a little bigger which helps him finish and he seems less impacted when things don’t go right. I’ve seen Hardaway hit big shots on nights when he’s struggled from the floor, but Crawford seems to need things to right early in order to have a big game.

Michigan’s next top scorer is freshman guard Trey Burke. Burke scores 13.8ppg and makes 36.2% of his threes. He’s also a very talented ball handler with about a 2-to-1 assist to turnover ratio. In addition, like Hardaway, he’s got an explosiveness to him when he takes the ball to the hoop. I’ve been really impressed with Burke to this point as I thought Michigan would struggle in the backcourt without Darius Morris. I’m hopeful NU’s unique 1-3-1 zone and extended pressure will cause trouble for the freshman, but his quickness may counter some of NU’s tricks.

Once you get past Hardaway and Burke, Michigan actually looks a lot like Northwestern, but the difference is while NU is an okay shooting team, Michigan is a great shooting team. Evan Smotrycz, Zack Novack, and Stu Douglass are all excellent shooters who could cause NU trouble. The good new is that none of three are going to get open on their own. As a result, if NU plays pressure defense they can probably force Burke and Hardaway to beat them. That might happen, but I’d rather give up twos than threes. Especially early on the road.

For Northwestern to win they need to play that great defense, rebound, but most importantly make shots. NU’s shooting was what cost them the Illinois game. I still think the new rims at Welsh-Ryan impacted that result, but I don’t want to worry too much about events which I don’t have control over. Still, it was a tough loss that really didn’t need to happen. If NU ends up one game short of the tournament, I’m not going to let that result go. For now, though, I’ll focus on the Michigan game. The problem is I don’t think NU can win it. I predict: Michigan, 77 Northwestern, 65

Poor Overall First Half and Terrible Defense in the Second Half Doom Northwestern

Once again Northwestern looked unprepared to play in a game that really mattered. I know Northwestern’s players and coaches want to make the NCAA Tournament, but they don’t seem to play like it or coach like it when the NCAA Tournament is actually on the line. I can make a huge list of key games where NU came out flat with the dance on the line in recent years, but off the top of my head I have Ohio State 2009, Wisconsin 2010, and tonight.

In the first half Michigan took a 15-point lead thanks to some bad NU shooting (32%) and terrible defense which allowed Jordan Morgan to get basically any shot he wanted from about two feet and in. Actually, I think a good number of Morgan’s points came on dunks. NU also allowed too many easy breakaway baskets which mostly occurred due to their missed long distance shots.

In the second half NU’s terrible defense continued which allowed Darius Morris and Tim Hardaway, Jr to continue to get the ball inside to Morgan or take the ball to the hoop for easy dunks. I put a lot of the issues with Morris and Hardaway getting to the hoop on NU’s switching man-to-man which resulted in Michigan’s guards often being defended by Luka Mirkovic or Davide Curletti. I thought Mirkovic and Curletti actually did as well as they could in that matchup, but they aren’t going to win it more than about ten percent of the time. NU’s guards need to get over screens and not put their centers on an island against a much more athletic player. What really upsets me about this is the fact this has been a problem all season long and its clearly not sound basketball yet it continues. At some point this needs to change.

Northwestern’s offensive strategy changed for the better in the second half when they went away from the slowdown and started shooting any good shot they had. In the second half NU made 18-of-29 shots and that includes the slew of missed shots they threw up at the end. I’m all for the slowdown offense vs teams NU isn’t much better than, but tonight I think the ‘Cats should have been aggressive from the start. Certainly, their six point advantage in the second half seems to show that.

The second half was a good showcase for Juice Thompson who scored 17 points and made it look like at least he wanted to win, but at the same time I have to say Juice was just as ineffective on both offense and defense as everybody in the first half so I can’t praise him too much. Drew Crawford also made some good shots in the second half and did a nice job on the glass, but he missed three big free throws and still seems often times to be the guy who is most impacted by not playing well. Drew really needs to learn to “flush” his negative plays and not let them stay with him for extended periods. JerShon Cobb made some nice plays, but took a bad shot late with the score 69-66. I know Cobb’s a freshman, but we can’t have dumb shots under pressure in big games. Crawford took one on the next possession which was even worse. Also, Bill Carmody basically said after the game on WGN that John Shurna isn’t ready to play and he looked like it today in scoring just four points. I don’t want to place NU’s recent tailspin all on Shurna’s injury because that’s not the only cause (see: defense), but the fact is that if Shurna were at 100% NU wouldn’t need to play as much defense because he’d score 22 points each night.

The bottom line is NU lost a big game—again. Bill Carmody sounded really upset after the game on WGN. I think some of that was due to his team’s poor ability to execute on defense, but I have to wonder if some relates to wondering about his job status. Several commentaries have pointed out that Carmody is only under contract through next season and lame duck seasons are pretty rare in college athletics. Next year would be one of NU’s most experienced teams in recent memory which might make NU say, “Sure, we’ll keep the guy as a lame duck for one more year.” Doing that, though, would probably harm recruiting because Carmody won’t be able to prove he’ll be able to coach those recruits. It’s a tough conundrum for Jim Phillips and his staff to try and resolve.

Northwestern’s obviously now probably totally on the outside of the NCAA Tournament and I’m not loving the NIT scenarios either. They play at Penn State on Sunday and watching NU play Penn State the last few years has been about as comfortable as watching your dog get hit by an eighteen-wheeler, so I’m not optimistic about that contest.

I don’t know about others, but I feel this season ceased to fun along time ago. Now, it’s like watching an in progress car accident. It might be exciting for an instant, but you know it won’t end well, yet you can’t turn your head away even though you really, really want to turn your head away.

Improving Wolverines Host Wildcats in Ann Arbor

Northwestern has shown improvement in their last two games, but Michigan is one of the teams in the Big Ten that seems to have made the biggest jump of late. A Michigan team that at one point looked like one of the league’s weakest squads has recently posted wins over tournament bubble teams Michigan State and Penn State. As a result, there is still a chance for Michigan to make the NCAA Tournament. Northwestern, considering they have the same Big Ten record as Michigan and the same number of overall wins, has to be considered a team in the same boat. After Wednesday night, though, one of the two teams is going to get tossed out of that boat. It’s a like a reality show, but the game is actually real and not scripted.

Northwestern has won the last three meetings between these teams and in the last two the Wildcats have been fairly dominate. However, both those last two meetings were in Evanston and I see Michigan as a much more challenging team now than they were in January. A big part of Michigan’s improvement is the better play from Tim Hardaway, Jr. In Michigan’s recent wins, Hardaway has added a more consistent three point shot to his to his excellent ability to get shots going to the basket. He’s still only a 32.6% three point shooter overall, but I became much more worried about Michigan as I watched Hardaway knock down clutch threes against Penn State. Northwestern’s improved defensive ability to keep opposing guards on the perimeter and not let them get up open shots will be important in how they defend not just Hardaway, but the entire Michigan lineup. Michigan starts three guards, but even forward Evan Smotrycz is really mostly a three point shooter. In fact at 37.2% from three he is one of the Michigan guys NU must be sure to not allow a clear look. At times, Michigan will even go with a four guard lineup and use Stu Douglass (38.6% from three) off the bench along with Zack Novack (40% from three), Hardaway, and point guard Darius Morris. Morris isn’t much of a three point shooter, but his ability to drive allows him to make over 50% of his field goals and he’s got a better than 2-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio. I worry about him because at times in Evanston he seemed to get whatever shot he wanted. Northwestern must take the approach they took against Ohio State and Illinois and attempt to deny the hot-shooting Michigan team open threes. In addition, though, they also need to fight through screens in order not to have mismatches were Morris and Hardaway are being guarded by slower defenders. I’d still rather see Morris shoot a three than drive and probably on percentage it’s the same for Hardaway, but Novack, Douglass, Smotrycz and backup point guard Matt Vogrich are another story. They all make at least 37% of their threes. If they get going as a group, Michigan has a chance to win a lot of games.

The same can be said for Northwestern’s shooters. It’s what happened versus Michigan last time. When John Shurna, Juice Thompson, and Drew Crawford all show up early, NU tends to get out to leads which are very tough for an opponent to overcome. However, this hasn’t happened in sometime. As a result of Shurna’s latest injury and some inconsistent play from Thompson and Crawford, NU hasn’t had a real strong shooting night in a while. In fact, NU was a better game from Crawford away from knocking off top ranked Ohio State in Evanston.

In order to knock off Michigan for the forth consecutive time, I really believe NU needs to have all three of their top shooters contribute. Contributions from multiple spots is what it takes to win on the road in the Big Ten. Now, it is possible some role players could step up for NU as they did Saturday versus Illinois. JerShon Cobb should be very confident after a game in which he posted 13 points against in a ranked squad and the fact Michigan’s front line is relatively small should increase the odds of a big game from Luka Mirkovic which in turn increases the odds of an NU win. Still, I’d really like to see big games from Crawford and Shurna because long term it’ll be those guys along with Thompson who need to step up for Northwestern to make a serious run at the postseason. If everyone steps up, which we have seen is possible, this could be another fairly easy win for NU, but it’s been an awfully long time since we’ve seen that. I think it is more likely that Northwestern will get decent games from maybe two of three big names (maybe Crawford finally plays a full game because he loved playing at Michigan last year) and then bolstered by a good game from Mirkovic who is more confident without having to worry about 7-1 Mike Tisdale blocking his shots, the ‘Cats will win a close game. I also think that while NU showed they can run vs Michigan the first time these teams met, that won’t be the game plan on the road unless things really open up. After all, it seems like NU is really more comfortable playing at slower pace and they certainly will need to bring that slower pace to State College, PA on Saturday so I see no reason not use it in Ann Arbor on Wednesday. I predict: Northwestern, 66 Michigan, 61

Wildcats Use Fast Start and Decent Defense to Down Michigan 74-60

Northwestern continued their dominance at home and against teams ranked outside the top-35 in the RPI as they moved to 8-1 at Welsh-Ryan Arena and 12-0 against teams who have an RPI between 36-345 (actually NU’s best win right now is over RPI #109 American U, the ‘Cats haven’t played anybody between 36-108). That means NU still doesn’t have a bad loss, but still haven’t posted a resume building win either. Nonetheless, the NU and Head Coach Bill Carmody have to feel good about getting a win following a disappointing loss at Michigan State on Saturday.

Coming back after that tough loss it was important NU get off to a good start and that came from Drew Crawford who his coach said, “jump started” the team with 8 early points including two threes off nice passes from his teammates, especially Luka Mirkovic. Mirkovic finished with 13 points and Carmody credited him with some “nice individual moves” which resulted in points, but I really like seeing Luka pass well. At times Luka can struggle with turnovers, but when he takes care of the ball he gives Northwestern a very strong option inside that creates some looks for himself and his teammates. Tonight Luka hit 5-of-9 shots, grabbed 8 rebounds, and finished with 2 assists and just 1 turnover. That was much better than his 6 turnovers against Michigan State on Saturday. Luka got some support for his teammate at center tonight as Davide Curletti played a second solid game in a row. Curletti sometimes seems to have issue with silly fouls, but he generally finds a way to be a factor when is on the court. Tonight he had 7 points and 5 rebounds in 15 minutes. Combined Mirkovic and Curletti posted a double-double of 20 points and 13 rebounds. Generally when NU gets that type of center production they win games.

If you watched the game you know that NU also got solid performances from Juice Thompson and John Shurna. I would personally still like to see Juice be a little more aggressive looking for his shot as he has only made 7 total field goals the last two games, but he was been fantastic taking care of the ball. Today he dished out 7 of NU’s 18 assists and didn’t turn the ball over. NU only turned the ball over 5 times as a team. That’ll be key on Sunday as the Wildcats face a Wisconsin team who leads the nation in fewest turnovers per contest. John Shurna was the beneficiary of several Thompson assists in the first half. Several times in transition Thompson set up Shurna for an open three and Shurna buried the shot. With his ankle as it is, it’s harder (though clearly not impossible) for Shurna to create his own shot, but he still is a frighteningly accurate shooter from three if he gets just enough time to get his feet set. In tonight’s contest Shurna caught fire in the middle of the first half and posted 22 points before intermission. He finished with 24 and came close to a double-double as he grabbed 8 rebounds. That’s not bad for a guy playing on a seriously sprained ankle. It’ll be interesting to see how Bill Carmody handles Shurna on Thursday versus SIU-Edwardsville. The odds are NU would be a double-digit favorite over SIU-E even without Shurna, but if playing on the ankle really doesn’t make Shurna feel worse I’d hate to have him out of rhythm before Wisconsin.

NU’s bench did a good job tonight with Alex Marcotullio and Mike Capocci combining for 7 points and 5 assists. Capocci handled himself well and was part of NU’s solid defensive effort and I’m liking the fact that while Marcotullio seems to be getting more comfortable with his shot, he’s not afraid to try and drive at the hoop for a shot or pass. JerShon Cobb also deserves some kudos because although he shot poorly he hustled all over the court getting a ton of minutes tonight and consistently made the right choice with the ball to end up with 3 assists and 0 turnovers in 35 minutes of PT.

I’ll close with a note that I thought NU’s defense game plan of trying to force Michigan to shoot the deep ball was right on because as noted in the game preview Michigan isn’t a great three point shooting team, but can be goaded into lofting shots. However, I do think NU caught a break due to Darius Morris being in foul trouble as he did manage to drive and score pretty much at will. I think it is imperative NU find a solid on ball defender that doesn’t have to switch on screens to defend opposition point guards. If you rewatch the game you will see that most of Morris’s easy drives come when Thompson/Cobb switch off him and Mirkovic/Curletti are trying to check him. Any decent Big Ten point guard will be able to get to the hoop against Luka and Davide and I’d don’t want NU’s lack of effort at fighting through screens to doom them. Someone must step up on defense for NU if they want to take the next step. Good as it feels to put some distance between the ‘Cats and bottom of the Big Ten, NU still needs that big win and defense will be the key.

Wildcats Looking to Rebound as They Host Michigan Team Trying to do the Same: Game Preview

I suspect players and coaches shrug off losses far easier than fans because they can get back to work immediately after crushing defeats and use that return to the court as a kind of therapy to get over the frustration of a bad loss. If that is the case, both Michigan and Northwestern must have been busting down the doors of their practice facilities in order to get to work Sunday morning. The Wildcats 71-67 OT loss to Michigan State on Saturday left them kicking themselves over the missed opportunity to pull a momentum gaining win. On the same day, Michigan got pummeled by a below-average Indiana team after losing two straight close games to #3 Kansas and #2 Ohio State. Simply put, it wasn’t a very legendary day for two of the teams who will be in the Big Ten’s legends division next fall.

Perhaps more frustrating than just losing those games is both teams are now sitting in the lower half of the Big Ten standings, but it could be legitimately argued they have upper division talent on their rosters. The Wildcats biggest problem is that their biggest talent, John Shurna, is still hurting with an ankle sustained December 23rd that allegedly isn’t supposed to get worse even as he plays on it, but doesn’t look like its getting much better either. Michigan is simply taking the lumps that a team that is primarily playing young guys will take. Michigan has found themselves in a position to pull a number of upsets this season, but has lost out to more experienced teams in the clutch.

The most impressive of Michigan’s young talents is point guard Darius Morris who has improved leaps and bounds over last year to become Michigan’s top scorer at 15.7ppg. He’s more aggressive than last year and isn’t settling for the three point shot. In fact, only 21.4% of his field goal attempts have been threes, that probably is good because he only makes 26.7% of his threes. He’s a scary matchup for Northwestern because aggressive points have had their way with breaking down the Wildcat defense and Morris isn’t just a scorer, he also dishes out more than seven (7!) assists a game. People around the Big Ten cite Demetri McCamey as the ideal point guard, but Morris is almost as good.

Michigan’s other top player is one of several on the roster with NBA-bloodlines, Tim Hardaway Jr. He should probably take a lesson from Morris and eschew the three a little more often as about half his shots come from three, but he doesn’t even make 30% of them. Still, he averages 11.2 ppg and his size and skill can cause defenders problems.

Northwestern’s best chance to win this game probably is to play zone. The Wildcats demonstrated Saturday that when they really work at it their zone is very effective. If they make a choice to play as hard on defense as they did in the first half against Michigan State all the time Northwestern will be a very good team. The problem is that they don’t always play that hard. To beat Michigan they will need to though because the fact is Michigan is a team you want to make shoot threes. I’ve already talked about the trouble Morris and Hardaway have from behind the arc, but as a team Michigan only makes 33.3% of their threes, but they shoot a lot. The only Michigan player at 40% in making threes is forward Evan Smotrycz. Zack Novack and Stu Douglass are decent shooters at about 37%, but I think if NU hustles in the zone the length of Crawford, Cobb, Marcotullio, Shurna, and Capocci will make it harder for those guys to get shots off.

On offense the Wildcats will have to contend the athletic skill of guys like Hardaway and Jordan Morgan, but the ‘Cats can still have some size advantages in the post. Also, I think part of the reason that John Shurna had such a poor game on Saturday wasn’t just his ankle, it was a combination of his ankle and Delvon Roe guarding him. Roe is such a great defender that you really need to work by running and cutting hard to get away from him. With Shurna’s injury that ability to accelerate and cut hard is more or less lost. We saw against Indiana and Iowa that he is still a dangerous player when he’s given a clean shot in the offense, but Roe is so tough and good at fighting through screens Shurna never got a clean look against Michigan State. Against U of M it seems more likely that Shurna will get some good looks. I’d also hope Drew Crawford continues to play well and we see the confidence of JerShon Cobb and Alex Marcotullio behind the three point line continue to grow. Still, though, the position I honestly believe helps setup the NU offense is the post. Effective post play early (no necessarily even points, but good passing and no turnovers) is what has launched NU to success in most of their wins. Back at home I’d like think we’ll see that from Luka Mirkovic.

Because of the emotional swings of this season I’ve found many of the games this year hard to predict. Looking at this matchup it’s much of the same. Both teams come in off tough losses and the team that responds the best will likely get the victory. I think playing at home were the ‘Cats have shot well in every contest except when they hosted MSU will give NU an advantage and I expect to see not only better production from Shurna since he doesn’t have to deal with Delvon Roe, but continued good play from Crawford and Mirkovic who stepped up in the second half on Saturday. On the other side, I think NU’s defense’s odd desire to switch on high screens will create mismatches for Darius Morris against Luka and Davdie and he’ll score a lot of points going to the basket. If you like offense you’ll probably enjoy this game. I predict: Northwestern, 91 Michigan, 81

Note: If you're reading this blog you probably know this, but NU moved the start of Sunday's game vs Wisconsin to 11:30 because of the Bears and the Packers playing that afternoon. I like this move because it shows NU is thinking of Chicago fans and that helps promote us as Chicago's Big Ten team.

Second Note: I can't believe I predicted 90+ points for NU and it isn't a signal I've lost my mind. NU hoops has sure changed these past few years.

Sweep Complete: 67-52 Win Gives Northwestern First Season Sweep of Michigan in 42 Years

It wasn’t always the cleanest game, but in the end Northwestern came away from tonight’s Big Ten matchup with a key victory in their quest to make the NCAA Tournament. This victory moves the Wildcats to 15-7 overall and puts them in a position to compete for an at-large bid if they finish the season strong. How did Northwestern pull out what turned out to be a very impressive victory? By putting together a total team effort on both offense and defense.

The Wildcats 10-of-20 three point shooting and 21 assists on 25 made field goals were very impressive, but I was even more impressed with the defensive effort NU put forth. Northwestern’s defense has been (correctly) criticized at times this season. Statistics clearly show NU has been much less effective on the defensive end of the court than last season. You could put together a lot of theories for this, but to be honest in my eyes it’s pretty easy explanation. At times it looks like Northwestern simply gets lazy on defense. If you watch closely, you can tell when Jeremy Nash or Alex Marcotullio is really active at the top of the 1-3-1 or when they simply go through the motions. You can also tell when NU seriously fights through screens in the switching man-to-man or when the ‘Cats chose to take an easy and act as if they want to save energy. Early in the game NU looked like they wanted to conserve energy, but from about the under four minute in the first half until the finish of the game, NU got serious about defense. Although he has really struggled on offense, and wasn’t much better today, I have to give credit to Alex Marcotullio for being a big part of that wakeup call. After Jeremy Nash went out with two fouls, Marcotullio had to enter the game at the top of the 1-3-1 and was very active. He tipped and kicked a couple passes and was clearly working hard to move his feet and create difficult passes. Marcotullio’s intensity carried over to Nash and the rest of his teammates in the second half. NU switched out of the 1-3-1 to the switching man-to-man and did a remarkable job defending Manny Harris. NU made a clear effort to make Harris play to his weaknesses. A number of defenders spent time getting in front of Harris and trying to force him to either dribble left and his weak hand, or take a jump shot (where he makes less than 30%) as opposed to take an easy right hand drive to the hoop. Though a number of Wildcats were involved, I want to give special credit to Luka Mirkovic, who despite having obvious athletic disadvantages, played great help defense on Harris when he tried to drive and played man-to-man on DeShawn Sims so well that Sims eventually started committing frustration fouls. Luka also got 12 points, 3 rebounds, 4 assists, and 2 steals (one of which was a spectacular effort where he gave up his body). The Big Ten Network show the Journey is supposed to feature Luka this week and he put on a good show for the BTN crew to film tonight.

NU also got a performance from Drew Crawford which might have made Michigan feel as if they were in a time warp. Crawford scored 11 second half points to help put the game out of reach. He made 4 threes, but his runner from the right baseline and his and-1 reverse layup were his most memorable shots. At time Crawford makes silly freshman mistakes and forces passes, but little doubt exists he is NU’s most athletic player and the clear front runner for Big Ten Freshman of the Year.

NU outrebounded Michigan 30 to 27. Jeremy Nash pulled down 11 of those rebounds and John Shurna added 8. This might not have been Nash’s best offensive game in terms of shooting the ball (2-of-9), but he was all over place on the boards and played great defensive, plus he contributed on offense with 5 assists. Shurna scored 15 points and also had 5 assists. I also really liked how Shurna didn’t force things. He let the game come to him and ended up shooting threes at the right time and shooting twos at the right time.

NU’s other double figure scorer was Michael “Juice” Thompson. Thompson scored 12 points and NU moved to 12-2 when Thompson hits double figures. Juice had 3 turnovers in this game, which is a lot for him, but you can tell just how much confidence Northwestern gets from having Thompson run the team. He always seems to know how to find an open teammate or how to get himself open when NU needs a big three. At times I’d really like to see Thompson be more aggressive on offense, but he knows the system so well that he doesn’t seem to want to do things outside of the team’s offense.

Finally, Northwestern got six bench points tonight. That’s actually a lot for NU, however, four of those came with the game decided. Mike Capocci’s ally-op dunk from Ivan Peljusic was awesome, but the fact is NU really needs help on the bench. Kyle Rowley’s two first half points were the only bench points NU got which were meaningful. As the season progresses, I think getting Alex Marcotullio to break through his freshman wall and Kyle Rowley to continue to grow will be important. I’d also be curious to see if Davide Curletti and Mike Capocci start to develop roles. They each have good athletic skill, but haven’t really found a way into the regular rotation.

Game 22: Michigan @ Northwestern Wildcats

The Matchup: Michigan (11-10) @ Northwestern (14-7)

Location: Welsh-Ryan Arena (Evanston, IL)

TV: Big Ten Network (6:00 PM February 2nd, 2010)
Radio: WGN AM 720

Fun Fact: With the addition of guard Austin Nichols to the roster, NU now has three players from the state of Michigan.

About the Game
Last season Michigan was the only Big Ten team to sweep Northwestern. The Wildcats got some measure of revenge for that last month when they overcame a 17-point deficient to beat the Wolverines in Ann Arbor. Now, the Wildcats are looking for complete payback by finishing off their own season sweep. If the ‘Cats can do so, they’ll get their 15th win (three away from setting a school record) and put themselves in position to finish their last 10 games of the regular season with an impressive record. This is important because the NCAA Tournament committee will pay close attention to a team’s play down the stretch.

Much of the credit for Northwestern’s 68-62 win has to go to Drew Crawford who pulled a personal 11-0 run and finished with 25 points. Credit also has to go to Luka Mirkovic who woke up in the second half and started guarding DeShawn Sims (17.6ppg 51% FG). Early in the game Sims has his way with NU (most notably a dunk where he posterized Ivan Peljusic) and Michigan got a big lead. The ‘Cats got back into the game when Sims stopped scoring. Sims played well in both Michigan wins over NU last season as well. Therefore, it is easy to see that stopping him will be a key to an NU win. Once again, that job will likely fall to Mirkovic. Though, he had a poor game against Michigan State, I think Mirkovic has only gotten better since NU’s game in Ann Arbor, and I believe he can contain Sims.

Part of the reason that stopping Sims is so important is that NU has nobody to stop Michigan star Manny Harris (19.1ppg 6.6rpg) Harris had 24 points and 9 rebounds in the game last month. With his 6-7 size and superior athletic skill, Harris is really too large for NU’s guards to play consistently man-to-man and too quick for John Shurna. His only major weakness is that he makes only 28.3% of his threes. If one can take away Harris’s route to the basket, it might be possible to contain the star. If NU wants to go man-to-man, the best matchup for Harris is Drew Crawford. Crawford still might be a little young to be a great defender, but his 6-5 size and great leaping ability makes him potentially a better defender on Harris than the slower John Shurna or the smaller Jeremy Nash. It is also possible NU might play their 1-3-1 against Michigan. Although Michigan guards Stu Douglass (only 26 turnovers this year) and Zack Novak (only 18 turnovers this year) don’t turn the ball over much, neither has shot well either. Douglass (despite a reputation as a three point shooter) is making only 30.9% of his threes and Novak is making just 29%. If the season long shooting slump both those guys and Harris have been in continues, it makes sense for NU to play the 1-3-1 in order to help Mirkovic defend Sims. Michigan’s only shooter with a decent percentage from three point range is reserve guard (and Lake Forest native) Matt Vogrich who makes 39.1% of his threes. However, Vogrich only plays 6.4 minutes a game and is somewhat turnover prone.


Prediction:
Michigan has some advantages in a game over NU, such as more knowledge of the 1-3-1 than other opponents (since they also play it); however, that works both ways. Plus, to really beat the 1-3-1 you need shooters and the Wolverines haven’t shot well all year. I also expect that after two road games Northwestern will be happy to be home. On the other hand, Michigan is 1-5 in road games this year and the only win was over a Penn State team that is 0-9 in Big Ten play. Hopefully, Northwestern can fill Welsh-Ryan with purple and create a hostile in Environment which gets Michigan uncomfortable. I think that can happen and I think it leads to a win and a wining streak. Northwestern, 65 Michigan, 60

Crawford Rallies Wildcats From Down 17 to Top Michigan 68-62

In front of a large Michigan crowd, but also his father, NBA official Danny Crawford, Northwestern freshman guard Drew Crawford scored 25 points and proved the key force in getting the Wildcats a much needed 68-62 victory over Michigan in Ann Arbor. If Northwestern wants to make the NCAA Tournament they probably need at least three Big Ten road wins and after the loss to Illinois this was a much needed W.

The Wildcats fell down 31-14 with a little over four and a half minutes to go in the first half and things looked like they were in danger of getting ugly. However, Drew Crawford went of a personal 11-0 run to bring the Wildcats back into the game before half. In the second half, Crawford added 13 more points including the dunk of the year (even better than his own dunk against Illinois) on a put-back of a Jeremy Nash missed layup to help the ‘Cats pull out a hard fought victory. In sum total, Crawford added 8 rebounds and a steal to his 25 points. Of those 25 points, 12 came from three point range and an impressive 7 came from the free throw line. His free throws included four huge free throws which to first give NU a 63-62 lead and another two to extend that advantage. The only criticism would be he did have five turnovers. Those TOs are somewhat excusable, however, because this was really the first time in Drew’s college career he was being looked to as a go-to guy in a conference contest. I think NU will now look to Crawford even more. I am confident he’ll be able to deliver solid double figure efforts, especially if his teammates continue to get him open looks.

Part of the reason Crawford managed to get looks was a surprisingly big game from Luka Mirkovic who scored 13 points and had 8 rebounds and 4 assists. Mirkovic used his height advantage on DeShawn Dims to get some easy looks at the basket and he converted the majority of them. If Mirkovic can continue this type of performance it will be a huge lift for Northwestern as pressure will come off on NU’s primary three point shooters.

Aside from Crawford and Mirkovic, the Wildcats also got solid games from both Michael “Juice” Thompson and John Shurna. Through both were nearly invisible in the first half, they both finished in double figures. Thompson scored 15 points and Shurna netted 11. The fact NU staged its comeback, and even built at 10 point lead, when both these guys were scoring shows something critical. If both Thompson and Shurna both have big games, and they can do so against Big Ten teams, Northwestern is nearly impossible to beat. This is akin to Kevin Coble and Craig Moore last season. Often times teams stop one or the other, but when they both score the Wildcats can get any shot they want. The good news is with Crawford emerging, and possibly Mirkovic as well, Thompson and Shurna should be able to get better shots because defenses can’t just focus on them.

Speaking of defense, I have to say I was really worried when I saw NU play 1-3-1 in the first half and Michigan started drilling threes. At first, I couldn’t believe Bill Carmody didn’t switch out it in the second half, but the Wildcats made their coach look smart by increasing the intensity in the 1-3-1 in half number two. Jeremy Nash got a couple steals and tipped a ton more passes and it actually seemed like if NU had played with that same intensity early in the game they would have won by 15. Regardless, the ‘Cats did get the win, but they probably will not be able to play such a lackluster first half and still win in their next two games against Wisconsin and Purdue.

A couple other areas NU will need to improve before welcoming two top-20 teams to Welsh-Ryan include bench production and free throw shooting. Northwestern scored zero (0) bench points today. Now, I’ll admit the starters played a lot of minutes, but both Kyle Rowley and Alex Marcotullio had chances to score. I’ll get to Rowley in a second because it relates to point two. On Marcotullio, I fear he has hit a freshman wall. Crawford might avoid such a problem because he looks like he can physically stand up to the rigor and intensity of the Big Ten basketball games and practice every day. On the other hand, Marcotullio isn’t physically at the same point as Crawford. Marcotullio still looks like a high school player. Now, he’s had very good year, but right now I think he is probably a little beat up and exhausted. Hopefully, he’ll break through that wall soon.

On point number two, other than Drew Crawford going 7-for-8, Northwestern struggled from the free throw line. Kyle Rowley missed two free throws, Jeremy Nash made only 2-of-4 (and is in a major slump after being automatic early) and Juice made just 1-of-2. If NU wants to upset Wisconsin and/or Purdue they must take advantage of free throw attempts.

Finally, I want to give some props to two people. First, to Nick Fruendt who played just one minute, but broke into the scorebook with a key steal. Also, to Loretta8 from Sippin’ On Purple who wrote the only preview I read which predicted a Northwestern win.

The Wildcats are at home Wednesday against Wisconsin. I haven’t officially heard if it is a sell-out, but I suspect it will be by tip off, so let’s get as much purple in there as possible because I know there will be red.

Game 15: Northwestern Wildcats @ Michigan

The Matchup: Northwestern (11-3) @ Michigan (8-6)

Location: Crisler Arena (Ann Arbor, MI)

TV: Big Ten Network (1:30 PM CT Sunday Jan. 10th)
Radio: WGN 720 AM

Fun Fact: Bill Carmody got his first Big Ten road win at Michigan. Michigan was also the site of the 2007-08 Wildcats only Big Ten win.

About the Game
These two teams are very similar in how they play. Michigan was the only Big Ten team to beat the ‘Cats twice during the league schedule last season and that may have had to do with Michigan’s familiarity with the 1-3-1 defense. It will be interesting to see how the Wildcats attack the Wolverines offense this season. The 1-3-1 hasn’t been that effective of late, so NU might just scrap it all together versus UM.

UM’s offense is led by two future NBA players, Manny Harris and DeShawn Sims, the good news for NU is that while those two might be the best players in game, NU star John Shurna probably has a stronger supporting cast. You have to respect Harris scoring 19.4 points per game and Sims (17.3 ppg) playing as a threat both inside, where he converts more than 50% of his shots, and outside where at around 30% he converts enough to get the respect of other big men. This is important because like NU, Michigan will use the fact centers have to play outside on defense to setup backdoor cuts. This could the less of an issue for NU’s defenders if the ‘Cats play some type of zone. Sims is coming off two huge games in the Wolverines two game Big Ten winning steak against Ohio State and Penn State. Against OSU, Sims scored 28 points and he added another 25 versus Penn State to move his career total to 1,290 points. He should get to 1,300 against Northwestern.

UM’s other players are mostly three point shooters or ball handlers. However, they’ve really struggled shooting the three as they’re last in the Big Ten in three point percentage at 29.6%. As far as handling the ball, UM’s coaching staff has rotated a number of players to the point guard spot. Stu Douglass and Zack Novack are probably the best at taking care of the ball. Novack only has 9 turnovers this year in 421 minutes and Douglass has 10 in 387. NU will also need to be aware of him and Laval Lucas-Perry who helped the Wolverines break out of a major shooting slump in the second half at Penn State by hitting four threes. Before that, UM was 0-for-14 from behind the arc. With Michigan, like Northwestern, dependent on made threes for much of their offense, hitting open shots is critical to the team’s success.

Prediction:
This is a tough game to predict. A week and a half ago I would have said NU could go into to Crisler and win easy, but now I have serious questions about NU on both offense and defense. I think the past few games we have finally seen Northwestern start to miss Kevin Coble. Sure, John Shurna has scored a lot of points, but NU has seemed to lack a go to guy when suffering long scoring droughts where Coble could have taken the ball and got a good shot at the hoop. Shurna can get good looks, but he’s more dependent than Coble would have been on getting a teammate to set him up for a good look. If NU’s scoring problems continue in Ann Arbor, it’ll be a problem because I’m not sure how NU will stop Harris and Sims. Sims is actually scarier to me because Harris could have an off day shooting, but I don’t know how Luka Mirkovic or Kyle Rowley can defend Sims. I think this game will offer a chance for Ivan Peljusic or Davide Curletti to show their stuff. Hopefully they’ll take advantage because this game is critical for NU. However, after Thursday night I can’t honestly predict a Northwestern win. I hope I’m wrong, but I see Michigan’s athletes being too much for an NU squad which is slumping shooting and getting lazy on defense. Michigan, 77 Northwestern, 64

Looking back at memories of a classic game...

Lake the Posts has had a series of really interesting posts recently discussing the most memorable individual moments in the history of Northwestern football. One of the earlier posts in the series briefly mentioned one of the most memorable moments in Northwestern basketball history—the Wildcats 97-93 win over #8 Michigan which propelled that Wildcat team into the NIT. I was only 11 years old at the time, but looking back it was probably that game as much as any other which cemented me as a life-long NU fan. The heart of my post today will focus on my memories of that game.

Before I get into that though a little background is necessary so you understand what you’re reading. Over the past two years, I have on occasionally procrastinated from school work by working on a manuscript I’ve tentatively titled It’s Easy to Cheer for Your Team. Right now the project is stalled at about 30,000 words because I’ve finished my post-grad program and I am furiously filling out applications for high school English teaching jobs (hey, if I fancy myself a writer as might as well teach it, right?). Anyhow, the title comes from an encounter my family and I had with several Wisconsin fans during a game at Welsh-Ryan in which those red-sweater wearers expressed extreme shock we where cheering so hard for the Wildcats. What’s more amazing, though, is that wasn’t the first time I’d encountered such sentiments. It is as if the fans of other Big Ten teams are shocked to find out we NU fans actually care if our team loses. I guess some of that comes from the natural desire to be aligned with a winner. I mean the two biggest Ohio State fans I know went to Bowling Green, but they support the Buckeyes more than the Falcons because Jim Tressel’s teams are winners. Personally, I can’t imagine cheering for a different team than the one I grew up with and the one which represents my school, but I understand others feel differently. It’s tough to cheer for a team which provides as more heartache as happiness, but for those of us who stick with the Wildcats through thick and thin the big upsets mean even more. One of those big upsets was the victory over Michigan on March 12, 1994. Below, is a brief excerpt which features my recollection of that great day.

In my life as a sports fan, I’ve been to the Rose Bowl, Major League Baseball’s All-Star Game, and a slew of postseason basketball contests. None of those experiences have matched the leave of intensity of watching the Wildcats and the Wolverines battle on March 12, 1994.
When the game started it didn’t take long for Michigan’s Juwan Howard to take advantage of his superior size and athletic skills. His teammates seemed to be on a mission to get him the ball in the post. It was a mission which more often than not they were successful in accomplishing. In fact, by the day’s end Howard would set the Welsh-Ryan Arena record for field goals made in a single contest. It’s a record which still stands.

Much to my surprise, and the surprise of almost everyone at Welsh-Ryan that day, despite Howard’s prolific scoring, the ‘Cats were able to stay with the Wolverines throughout the first half. Every time Howard scored, Wildcats forward Cedric Neloms seemed to answer with a basket of his own. For every rebound Jalen Rose pulled down, the ‘Cats Kevin Rankin pulled down two.

As first half buzzer sounded I turned to my father who’d earlier predicted a Wildcat win and said, “You might be right.”

He smiled just slightly.

The second half was as even a half of basketball as I’ve ever seen. The teams’ play reminded me of two great heavyweight fighters battling in a title bout. Michigan was like a famous champ trying to apply the knock out blow, but the Wildcats, playing the role of the scrappy challenger, kept meeting those powerful blows with equally powerful counterpunches. To nobody’s surprise, when the clock stuck triple zero, the score was tied.

In overtime the Wildcats were carried by a trio of seniors who it appeared had no desire to see their careers conclude. First, Patrick Baldwin hit a three point jump shot from the top of the key just as the shot clock buzzer sounded. The basket gave the Wildcats the lead and sent me jumping out of my seat in pure purple exaltation. Pumped up as Baldwin’s basket made me, it was clear Michigan wasn’t ready fold it up and head home to Ann Arbor. It took Wildcat baskets from Baldwin’s follow seniors Kip Kirkpatrick and Kevin Rankin before the Wolverines appeared ready concede defeat.

When the game clock finally struck zero with the scoreboard reading Northwestern 97 Michigan 93, Welsh-Ryan Arena let out a roar which hasn’t been equaled in the fifteen years since. To my left, the student section rushed the court so quickly you would have thought Northwestern was offering free tuition to the first person to reach the N-Cat logo at the arena’s center.

I wanted to rush the court as well, but my father was too busy lifting me up with a big bear hug for me to get loose and charge over the security ropes as the students did. “You were right,” I said to him. “You said we were gonna win.”

Again he just smiled at me. This time, though, it was with a grin so wide it would have made the Cheshire Cat look only mildly content in comparison.

As looked around, I noticed my father’s wide grin had identical twins all throughout Welsh-Ryan.
Since the game was supposed to be the senior class’s last at home, Coach Ricky Byrdsong had arranged for the team’s seniors to address the crowd at the game’s conclusion. The plan had been for the seniors to stand at center court and speak to the crowd who would have stayed seated in their chairs at the game’s conclusion. Now, the crowd arrangement was a little different. Center court, actually most all of the court, was obscured by a horde of celebrating Northwestern students—the players among them.

With so many people on the court, and the players mixed in with their adoring fans, I wasn’t sure how the senior day ceremony could be conducted. Thankfully, Coach Byrdsong seemed to know how to deal with new crowd arrangement. He calmly took the public address microphone and asked for the crowd’s attention. Even those of us who’d remained in our seats were still celebrating in manner unseen in Welsh-Ryan before or since. After a few minutes, though, we all gave our attention to the man who’d just orchestrated one of the greatest wins in program history.

Standing in the midst of the students, Byrdsong proceeded to conduct the senior day ceremony.
After a few introductory remarks, he passed the microphone to each of the team’s five senior allowing them the chance to thank their parents, friends, and the fans.

The last player to speak was Kirkpatrick the senior who’d scored six points in the overtime period to lead the ‘Cats to victory. As he concluded his remarks, a giant smile appeared on his face and in his best impression of ESPN personality Dick Vitale he declared, “We’re goin’ to the NIT, baby!” The crowd erupted with the loudest cheer I’ve ever heard. The building literally shook.

Michigan Outlasts Northwestern for Overtime Victory 70-67

For Northwestern’s postseason hopes, if Thursday was the killer, this was the funeral. Thanks to Manny Harris on offense and Stu Douglas on defense, Michigan squeaked out a narrow victory Sunday afternoon at Welsh-Ryan Arena. Great praise has to go to Douglas for his defense on Northwestern’s Craig Moore. For 36 minutes, Douglas chased Moore through screen after screen and never allowed NU’s shooting guard to get a good look. I think it has become pretty clear that no matter how well Kevin Coble plays, or no matter who else scores, Craig Moore needs to something for Northwestern to win. On Sunday, he scored only 6 points and shot 2-of-10 overall and 1-of-6 from behind the three point line. On the other side of the court, Northwestern had no answer for Michigan’s Manny Harris. Harris took over the game at the start of the second half and in overtime and ended up posting 26 points and grabbing 3 key steals. Northwestern might have increased their athletic ability as a team, but even NU’s best defenders couldn’t seem to stop Harris without committing a foul.

Though Moore was ineffective, Northwestern did get great play from a freshman big man for the second straight game as John Shurna followed Luka Mirkovic’s lead and scored 17 points while grabbing 8 rebounds. Unfortunately, Mirkovic was out sick and couldn’t help produced points in the middle. This was a problem as NU’s center rotation of Kyle Rowley, Davide Curletti, and Ivan Peljusic scored just 6 points and pulled down 6 rebounds. Also, both Peljusic and Rowley had major blunders which potentially cost NU critical points. Rowley had multiple travels and threw a terrible pass which took NU out of possessions. Peljusic missed 4 free throws and a layup on what might have been the best play Bill Carmody ever drew up. Maybe Peljusic was rusty, he certainly could have played better, but Rowley I don’t know. He seems a second slow on everything he does which leads to walks and late/bad passes. Perhaps it is freshman indecision, but he, and all his teammates, need to get over this.

Speaking of indecision, NU could have won if John Shurna would have just thrown the ball down the court after the NU steal at the end of regulation. Kevin Coble was open for a layup. I knew that was going to hurt.

Coble scored 23 points for NU, his most since the Indiana game. He also should get credit for playing all 45 minutes of the overtime contest. However, his three point shot continues not to fall (1-of-6) and overall Coble hasn’t really been able to get going in some time. He seems to be forcing the ball more of late which results (5-of-17 today) in some very ugly misses.

Michael Thompson’s early foul trouble also hurt NU today. When Thompson scores Northwestern wins, but thanks to his foul problems today he spent much of the first half on the bench and NU only got 27 points. It was enough for the lead, but Michigan provided the ‘Cats with chances to score much more.

So, where does NU go from here? Well, to borrow from the football team who was honored at halftime, they need to try and go 1-0 vs Ohio State on Wednesday. This game wasn’t nearly as bad as the Illinois or Purdue game, but it is hard not to think NU should have won all three. They could be 6-1 at home in the Big Ten easily. But they aren’t and there isn’t a thing anybody can do about it, so it’s time to try and move forward. Ohio State’s choice to play zone the entire game could allow Moore his first open looks in awhile, but NU will have to contend with a couple very large and athletic Buckeye big men inside.

Game 23: Michigan @ Northwestern

The Matchup: Michigan (15-10) @ Northwestern (13-9)

Location: Welsh-Ryan Arena (Evanston, IL)

TV: Big Ten Network (2:00 PM CT Sunday)
Radio: WGN 720 AM

Fun Fact: Last year Northwestern and Michigan split their season series with the road team winning each contest.

About the Game
Based on numbers alone this game looks pretty even. However, numbers probably are the least important factor in figuring how this game will go. This game has perhaps the most fascinating physiological component I have ever seen in an athletic contest. Michigan needs to win this game in order to keep their NCAA tournament hopes alive. Northwestern must recover from one of the most debilitating losses in the program’s history in order to win and keep hope alive for any postseason appearance. The first time these two teams met Michigan won 68-59 in Ann Arbor thanks to a great start and some poor shooting on the part of NU’s top guns. At that point, it seemed fair to assume a Northwestern win in the friendly confines of Welsh-Ryan Arena. However, thanks to the last two games I can’t say that assumption is still valid. Now, it seems the game will turn on which team can perform best under the pressure of a “must win” scenario.

The Wildcats posted perhaps their most impressive home win of the year in a similar scenario against Minnesota. Michigan has twice managed to stop extended losing streaks in the Big Ten season by beating Northwestern and Penn State after those squads knocked off Michigan State. However, those wins for Michigan were at home. Playing on the road has been totally different for the Wolverines who have only one Big Ten road win which was an overtime victory at last place Indiana in which they had to come back from 20 points down in the second half.

In order to avoid continued road struggles, Michigan will attempt to repeat their success against Northwestern from earlier this year. I suspect they will try to again get the ball inside to DeShawn Sims who scored the first 10 points of the game last time these two meet. Northwestern will counter this by playing Luka Mirkovic instead of Kyle Rowley. In addition, Michigan will attempt to use their knowledge of the 1-3-1 to get open shots and offensive rebounds. To counter this, NU might stick with the 2-3 zone or switching man-to-man which they used effectively against Illinois and late in their home game vs Wisconsin.

Prediction:
I find this the toughest game to predict all year. Based on the fact the two teams have similar numbers (UM 67.2 ppg NU 65.0 UM 32.2 rpg NU 28.5 rpg UM 15.3 apg NU 15.8 apg) and NU is the home team I would normally pick Northwestern without a second thought. However, I can’t get over the end of the Illinois game. I know the Wildcats have rebounded from tough games a couple times this year, but I’m not sure how many times a team can do that. I am also very worried about the potential physiological impact the crowd will have on the team. I fear the student sections, which I believe play a major role in firing up the team and creating a great atmosphere in Welsh-Ryan, might only half full after over-flowing vs Illinois. I hope I’m wrong. I know there are some great student fans who read this blog and do an unbelievably outstanding job getting their classmates to come to games. I wish NU had more students like them. Anyhow, this is going to be a tough game for Northwestern. I think a lot of factors are working against them, however, Michigan doesn’t exactly have everything going there way either. Hopefully, NU will have enough fan support to put them over the top. They absolutely need this game. Northwestern, 58 Michigan, 55.

Michigan Ends NU Winning Streak with 68-59 Triumph

At the start of the game Michigan center DeShawn Sims totally dominated with five straight scores. It looked early on like Kyle Rowley was totally lost against the much more athletic Sims. This was an example of how sometimes a more athletic player can take advantage of a bigger defender. Northwestern has several guys who could do the same, but do not do so enough.

The Wildcats also allowed way to much dribble penetration from Michigan in the first half. Sadly, it was Jeff Ryan, one of NU’s better defensive players, who totally bought several Michigan ball fakes and allowed players to go right around him.

Overall, Michigan’s ability to ball fake, pass, and penetrate the zone was masterful. They clearly knew how to handle the 1-3-1 zone. Northwestern will need to have some other defenses prepped as other teams adjust as well.

Kyle Rowley has moments, but he is still very soft and slow. He often seems to be in position for rebounds, but doesn’t come up with them. Whether he is simply not yet adjusted to Big Ten speed, or needs to get in better shape, is unclear. Bottom line, he’s not quite there yet, but shows sings he will be someday.

Northwestern did have chances to get back in the game in the second half, especially from about the 9:00-4:00 minute mark of the second half, but Thompson and Coble took ill advised shots and Moore missed a wide open look. Given Moore’s poor play the last two games (4-of-13 today), the odds favor him shooting well at home against Indiana on Wednesday.

Bottom line, Northwestern still has a good chance to make the postseason. However, odds are this is not going to be the breakthrough NCAA year. Given that, I believe the likely future leading scorer John Shurna needs to get more playing time. Given what I saw from Jeff Ryan tonight, I’d say Shurna should get some of his minutes. Ryan is overall a good defensive player, but he offers zero on the offensive end. Shurna at least offers some threat on offense. Yes, he still needs to learn to play defense, but given his size and athletic skill that’s something he ought to learn with ease. Also, considering NU once again got manhandled in the rebound category, getting Shurna, who is one of the team’s better rebounders, on the court more could help.

Game 17: Northwestern @ Michigan

The Matchup: Northwestern (10-6) @ Michigan (13-6)

Location: Crisler Arena (Ann Arbor, MI)

TV: Big Ten Network (7:00 PM CT)
Radio: WGN 720 AM

Fun Fact: The last time Northwestern won back to back road games in the Big Ten was January of 1999.

About the Game

Michigan comes into this contest on a three game losing steak. Their loss on Tuesday at Penn Sate by the score of 73-58 was certainly the low point of the Wolverines season thus far. Northwestern comes into the game on a two game winning steak with the Wildcats win over Michigan State on Wednesday being the team’s highest point of the season thus far. Will the two teams’ divergent streaks have an impact on the game? The answer is almost certainly yes, but the real question is in what way will the teams’ seemingly divergent fortunes impact the game. Northwestern coach Bill Carmody has stated he plans to remind his Wildcats what they did to Minnesota after the Gophers big upset over Wisconsin in order keep the Wildcats focused. This is probably a good idea.

Michigan coach John Beilein has a different challenge from Carmody. He needs to get his team back to playing the way they did when they defeated UCLA and Duke. The last five games Michigan has settled on a starting five of Kelvin Grady, Laval Lucas-Perry, Manny Harris, Zack Novak and DeShawn Sims. While establishing a consistent lineup is a good thing, Michigan’s recent struggles might result in more change. Two players that won’t leave the lineup are Manny Harris and DeShawn Sims. Harris is possibly the league’s best player. He is second in scoring (18.1 ppg) and third in rebounding (7.4 rpg). Sims leads the Big Ten in rebounding with 8.1 rpg and also scores 15.8 ppg. Other than Sims and Harris, Michigan will rely on the three point shooting of Zack Novack and Laval Lucas-Perry. In the post, the Wolverines will bring 6-10 Zack Gibson off the bench. Gibson started 6 games this year, but is now used as a backup to Sims and Novack, who despite being 6-5, starts at forward.

When breaking down numbers and strategy a lot of similarities are evident between Michigan and Northwestern. Both teams will play a lot of 1-3-1 zone and rely on the three point shot. Northwestern’s advantage is they shoot higher percentage from three (38.1 to 32.8) and get more steals (7.5 to 6.3). Michigan gets the advantage in rebounding (32.7 to 30.1) and free throw shooting (77% to 67%). The approach each team takes on defense will be interesting to watch. Both may use the 1-3-1 as a base, but as the 1-3-1 often allows open three point shots, and both teams have good shooters, each squad may use more man-to-man. Michigan especially might be advised to use man-to-man in order to get a single defender (probably Harris) on Kevin Coble. For Northwestern, stopping Harris and Sims will be the key. In order to so, I expect them to use the 1-3-1, but also some 2-3 matchup in order to prevent Michigan from getting the ball inside.

Prediction: Without a doubt this is a big game for both teams. Michigan has the advantage in playing at home, but based on the numbers that advantage isn’t huge. Even with two of the Big Ten’s top rebounders Michigan actually only gets about two more rebounds per game than Northwestern. In the starting lineup, Northwestern will actually be bigger than Michigan. Michigan’s advantage is in their athletes. Can Northwestern make up for this advantage with their array of zones and ability to make more threes? I think so, but it will be close. Northwestern, 61 Michigan, 59

Highlights and a Look Ahead

First off, here are the highlights from last night as posted on Youtube by every NU fan's favorite Youtube poster NUBears.

After watching those highlights we have to turn our attention to the Wildcats next game which is at Michigan on Saturday. This is the first time since probably the famous Michael Jenkins buzzer beater that I go into a game worried about an NU let down. After the Jenkins upset the Wildcats blew a double figure lead and lost to Ohio State. Repeating such a performance would be a serious step backwards for NU after the last two wins. Now, that is not to say this a must win for NU. It’s not. Northwestern can lose to Michigan and still finish above .500 overall and compete for the post-season. However, NU cannot show up and take Michigan lightly just because the Wolverines have lost three in a row while NU has won two. Handling this situation will present a challenge to Coach Carmody as it is very possible NU might be overconfident. After all, aside from the two straight upset wins, Michigan at Michigan was the only Big Ten win Northwestern got during last year’s disastrous 1-17 Big Ten season. I don’t think it would be unreasonable if just a tinge of overconfidence entered the NU players’ minds as they travel to Ann Arbor. However, this cannot happen. Coach Carmody needs to ensure NU plays with the same high level of intensity seen in the last three games. In order to make this happen, Carmody should point back to last season at Michigan. He should point to the fact that game against the Wolverines in Ann Arbor was the ‘Cats only Big Ten win. A reminder of their struggles last season should be enough to make the ‘Cats realize there is not a team in the Big Ten they can simply show up and expect to beat. I think such a reminder will be enough to fire up the Wildcats and void the letdown against Michigan. Most of the NU roster has suffered enough too losses that they do not want to see such long strigns of losses repeated. They want to be the team that changes the perspective of NU hoops. The win against Michigan State was a good start, but to truly change how the nation sees NU basketball, an extended winning streak is needed. If NU can win at Michigan on Saturday as many as 6 straight wins are possible.