The Matchup: Michigan (11-10) @ Northwestern (14-7)
Location: Welsh-Ryan Arena (Evanston, IL)
TV: Big Ten Network (6:00 PM February 2nd, 2010)
Radio: WGN AM 720
Fun Fact: With the addition of guard Austin Nichols to the roster, NU now has three players from the state of Michigan.
About the Game
Last season Michigan was the only Big Ten team to sweep Northwestern. The Wildcats got some measure of revenge for that last month when they overcame a 17-point deficient to beat the Wolverines in Ann Arbor. Now, the Wildcats are looking for complete payback by finishing off their own season sweep. If the ‘Cats can do so, they’ll get their 15th win (three away from setting a school record) and put themselves in position to finish their last 10 games of the regular season with an impressive record. This is important because the NCAA Tournament committee will pay close attention to a team’s play down the stretch.
Much of the credit for Northwestern’s 68-62 win has to go to Drew Crawford who pulled a personal 11-0 run and finished with 25 points. Credit also has to go to Luka Mirkovic who woke up in the second half and started guarding DeShawn Sims (17.6ppg 51% FG). Early in the game Sims has his way with NU (most notably a dunk where he posterized Ivan Peljusic) and Michigan got a big lead. The ‘Cats got back into the game when Sims stopped scoring. Sims played well in both Michigan wins over NU last season as well. Therefore, it is easy to see that stopping him will be a key to an NU win. Once again, that job will likely fall to Mirkovic. Though, he had a poor game against Michigan State, I think Mirkovic has only gotten better since NU’s game in Ann Arbor, and I believe he can contain Sims.
Part of the reason that stopping Sims is so important is that NU has nobody to stop Michigan star Manny Harris (19.1ppg 6.6rpg) Harris had 24 points and 9 rebounds in the game last month. With his 6-7 size and superior athletic skill, Harris is really too large for NU’s guards to play consistently man-to-man and too quick for John Shurna. His only major weakness is that he makes only 28.3% of his threes. If one can take away Harris’s route to the basket, it might be possible to contain the star. If NU wants to go man-to-man, the best matchup for Harris is Drew Crawford. Crawford still might be a little young to be a great defender, but his 6-5 size and great leaping ability makes him potentially a better defender on Harris than the slower John Shurna or the smaller Jeremy Nash. It is also possible NU might play their 1-3-1 against Michigan. Although Michigan guards Stu Douglass (only 26 turnovers this year) and Zack Novak (only 18 turnovers this year) don’t turn the ball over much, neither has shot well either. Douglass (despite a reputation as a three point shooter) is making only 30.9% of his threes and Novak is making just 29%. If the season long shooting slump both those guys and Harris have been in continues, it makes sense for NU to play the 1-3-1 in order to help Mirkovic defend Sims. Michigan’s only shooter with a decent percentage from three point range is reserve guard (and Lake Forest native) Matt Vogrich who makes 39.1% of his threes. However, Vogrich only plays 6.4 minutes a game and is somewhat turnover prone.
Prediction:
Michigan has some advantages in a game over NU, such as more knowledge of the 1-3-1 than other opponents (since they also play it); however, that works both ways. Plus, to really beat the 1-3-1 you need shooters and the Wolverines haven’t shot well all year. I also expect that after two road games Northwestern will be happy to be home. On the other hand, Michigan is 1-5 in road games this year and the only win was over a Penn State team that is 0-9 in Big Ten play. Hopefully, Northwestern can fill Welsh-Ryan with purple and create a hostile in Environment which gets Michigan uncomfortable. I think that can happen and I think it leads to a win and a wining streak. Northwestern, 65 Michigan, 60
Monday, February 1, 2010
Sunday, January 31, 2010
Women's Basketball: Northwestern Wins at Wisconsin
I want to offer congratulations to Northwestern’s women’s basketball team for their win today at Wisconsin. Winning at the Khol Center in women’s hoops might not be as impossible as in men’s, but it’s still tough. Wisconsin came into the game third in the Big Ten and would have moved into second place with a win. Instead, the Wildcats got a 20-point 10-rebound double-double from Amy Jaeschke and used a 17-2 run to start the second half in order to pull out the 68-62 win. Let’s hope NU’s men’s basketball team can model this feat in February. Overall Northwestern is 13-9. 13 wins is the most for an NU women’s hoops team in 14 years. Like men's team, this team has a shot at making it to the postseason this year.
Saturday, January 30, 2010
Michigan State Runs Past ‘Cats in Second Half for 79-70 Victory
Michigan State lead Northwestern 30-28 at halftime, but despite being down two points, it looked like Northwestern might actually have control of the game. Unfortunately, it didn’t take Michigan State long to extend their lead and completely gain control of the game in the second half. While they settled for 11 three point attempts in the first half, in the second half Michigan State shot only 4 threes. Instead, they worked the ball inside against Northwestern’s 1-3-1 zone and rushed down the court to get easy looks (i.e. dunks) in transition. The result was Michigan State shooting 75% in second half overall and 81% on two point field goal attempts. Credit has to go to Michigan State Coach Tom Izzo for making a coaching adjustment which essentially turned the game in his favor.
Of course, Izzo’s ability to make that adjustment has a lot to do with the fact he has a team of superior athletes. Even if Bill Carmody wanted Northwestern to push the ball in transition, I don’t think their effort would be anywhere near Michigan State’s. As far as attacking the 1-3-1, Michigan State’s superior inside athletic skill helped their as well. What also helped was it was clearly evident Michigan State had been fully prepped for facing the 1-3-1. They seemed to know exactly where the openings were and what to do in order to get easy baskets. The day ended with Michigan State committing only 10 turnovers (NU had 11) and getting six steals (NU had 4). Last season Northwestern dominated both those categories in their huge upset win. If NU wants to pull off wins later this year they have to get back to regularly forcing turnovers.
NU made a couple unique personal moves tonight. Kyle Rowley played only three minutes, probably because he didn’t matchup with MSU’s athletic front court. In place of Rowley, Davide Curletti played 18 minutes. Curletti didn’t score, but he did grab 3 rebounds and get 4 assists. That was better than starter Luka Mirkovic who really struggled tonight and ended up with 4 points, 1 rebound, 2 assists, and 3 turnovers. I honestly think Mirkovic could matchup with MSU’s inside players, but he didn’t seem comfortable or confident tonight.
Mike Capocci played 9 fairly strong minutes. He scored 4 points (including a nice dunk on a backdoor pass) and got 2 rebounds. I think Capocci is clearly earning more time and should be used as a backup for Drew Crawford. NU’s guards, however, have virtually no reserve support. Michael “Juice” Thompson played 39 minutes and stayed on the court until he fouled out. Thompson didn’t have a great game shooting only 2-of-8 overall and 1-of-5 from behind the arc. Much like the game in Evanston, MSU did a great job defending Thompson and taking him out of NU’s offense. Drew Crawford had similar struggles with his shot. He finished 3-of-9 from the floor.
NU did get 31 points from John Shurna and Jeremy Nash made 3-of-5 shots and dished out 3 assists without a turnover. Shurna’s 31 points came on a lot of shots (23) and he made 6-of-13 threes. That might seem like a lot of shots, but at times it seemed like NU’s other players didn’t want to shoot the ball.
Northwestern ends January 3-6 in the Big Ten and 4-6 overall for the month. John Shurna has asserted himself as one of the Big Ten’s best offensive players and despite a poor game tonight, Luka Mirkovic has started to give NU an inside game. With their wins over Purdue and Illinois, the Wildcats made a case for inclusion in the NCAA Tournament. Now they have to build on that case by being victorious in a number of “should-win” contests in February and March.
Of course, Izzo’s ability to make that adjustment has a lot to do with the fact he has a team of superior athletes. Even if Bill Carmody wanted Northwestern to push the ball in transition, I don’t think their effort would be anywhere near Michigan State’s. As far as attacking the 1-3-1, Michigan State’s superior inside athletic skill helped their as well. What also helped was it was clearly evident Michigan State had been fully prepped for facing the 1-3-1. They seemed to know exactly where the openings were and what to do in order to get easy baskets. The day ended with Michigan State committing only 10 turnovers (NU had 11) and getting six steals (NU had 4). Last season Northwestern dominated both those categories in their huge upset win. If NU wants to pull off wins later this year they have to get back to regularly forcing turnovers.
NU made a couple unique personal moves tonight. Kyle Rowley played only three minutes, probably because he didn’t matchup with MSU’s athletic front court. In place of Rowley, Davide Curletti played 18 minutes. Curletti didn’t score, but he did grab 3 rebounds and get 4 assists. That was better than starter Luka Mirkovic who really struggled tonight and ended up with 4 points, 1 rebound, 2 assists, and 3 turnovers. I honestly think Mirkovic could matchup with MSU’s inside players, but he didn’t seem comfortable or confident tonight.
Mike Capocci played 9 fairly strong minutes. He scored 4 points (including a nice dunk on a backdoor pass) and got 2 rebounds. I think Capocci is clearly earning more time and should be used as a backup for Drew Crawford. NU’s guards, however, have virtually no reserve support. Michael “Juice” Thompson played 39 minutes and stayed on the court until he fouled out. Thompson didn’t have a great game shooting only 2-of-8 overall and 1-of-5 from behind the arc. Much like the game in Evanston, MSU did a great job defending Thompson and taking him out of NU’s offense. Drew Crawford had similar struggles with his shot. He finished 3-of-9 from the floor.
NU did get 31 points from John Shurna and Jeremy Nash made 3-of-5 shots and dished out 3 assists without a turnover. Shurna’s 31 points came on a lot of shots (23) and he made 6-of-13 threes. That might seem like a lot of shots, but at times it seemed like NU’s other players didn’t want to shoot the ball.
Northwestern ends January 3-6 in the Big Ten and 4-6 overall for the month. John Shurna has asserted himself as one of the Big Ten’s best offensive players and despite a poor game tonight, Luka Mirkovic has started to give NU an inside game. With their wins over Purdue and Illinois, the Wildcats made a case for inclusion in the NCAA Tournament. Now they have to build on that case by being victorious in a number of “should-win” contests in February and March.
Friday, January 29, 2010
Game 21: Northwestern Wildcats @ Michigan State
The Matchup: Northwestern (14-6) @ Michigan State (18-3)
Location: Breslin Center (East Lansing, MI)
TV: Big Ten Network (6:00 PM January 30th, 2010)
Radio: WYLL AM 1160
Fun Fact: Northwestern’s win over Michigan State in East Lansing last season was the Big Ten Network’s Game of the Year for 2008-09.
About the Game
Michigan State enters this game undefeated in the Big Ten and ranked #5 in the nation. Northwestern enters with a respectable 14-6 overall record, but NU’s loss to Minnesota dropped the Wildcats to 3-5 in the Big Ten and out of most NCAA Tournament predictions. If Northwestern can beat Michigan State, though, they’ll be right back in those tournament projections and probably have an even bigger win on their resume than last season’s titanic upset.
In early January these two teams met in Evanston and Michigan State lit up Northwestern’s defense. MSU scored 91 points and the Wildcats looked entirely helpless against Michigan State’s athletic skill. The good news for NU fans is that the Wildcats seemed to recommit to defense after that loss. The bad news is most of the recommitment occurred in the matchup zone or switching man-to-man. Even matching up and/or switching, it’ll be tough for NU go toe-to-toe with MSU’s athletes. That means the Wildcats might have to get back into the 1-3-1 which produced a ton of Michigan State turnovers last year. Unfortunately, Tom Izzo seemed to have his Spartans more than prepared for the 1-3-1 earlier this year in Evanston. Choosing a defense will be a tough, but very critical decision for NU coach Bill Carmody. The truth is Michigan State isn’t a great three point shooting team. Kalin Lucas makes 38.6%, Chris Allen makes 38.4%, and Korie Lucious makes 34.8%, but none of the other Spartans are great shooters. In fact, Durrell Summers is the only other Spartan who even considers trying threes, but he makes just 25%. Given those numbers, it might make sense to try the 1-3-1 as it looks as if NU won’t get beat from the outside. The 1-3-1 might also help deny the ball inside to Draymond Green (10.4ppg and 58.3% FG) and Raymar Morgan (11.7ppg and 58% FG). Green is closer to a classic post player who wants to catch with his back turned while Morgan can take a lesser athlete off the dribble. Either way, NU’s front court would be best served in keeping the ball away from those guys. To do so, John Shruna and Luka Mirkovic will need to hit the defensive glass. MSU has 290 offensive rebounds already this season.
Michigan State’s other great skill is how fast they push the ball. If you miss a shot you must get back on defense, if you turn the ball over you must get back on defense, and if you make a basket you don’t have time to feel happy because you need to get back on defense. MSU took advantage of some NU laziness in January and got some easy baskets. For Northwestern to win they can’t allow those easy baskets and they must get some easy baskets of their own thanks to turnovers and the open threes the Princeton Offense will produce.
Prediction:
I think Northwestern is a better team now than they were in January. I would be shocked if this game is decided by more than 12 points, but I also don’t think NU can duplicate their feat from last season. Michigan State, 71 Northwestern, 60
Location: Breslin Center (East Lansing, MI)
TV: Big Ten Network (6:00 PM January 30th, 2010)
Radio: WYLL AM 1160
Fun Fact: Northwestern’s win over Michigan State in East Lansing last season was the Big Ten Network’s Game of the Year for 2008-09.
About the Game
Michigan State enters this game undefeated in the Big Ten and ranked #5 in the nation. Northwestern enters with a respectable 14-6 overall record, but NU’s loss to Minnesota dropped the Wildcats to 3-5 in the Big Ten and out of most NCAA Tournament predictions. If Northwestern can beat Michigan State, though, they’ll be right back in those tournament projections and probably have an even bigger win on their resume than last season’s titanic upset.
In early January these two teams met in Evanston and Michigan State lit up Northwestern’s defense. MSU scored 91 points and the Wildcats looked entirely helpless against Michigan State’s athletic skill. The good news for NU fans is that the Wildcats seemed to recommit to defense after that loss. The bad news is most of the recommitment occurred in the matchup zone or switching man-to-man. Even matching up and/or switching, it’ll be tough for NU go toe-to-toe with MSU’s athletes. That means the Wildcats might have to get back into the 1-3-1 which produced a ton of Michigan State turnovers last year. Unfortunately, Tom Izzo seemed to have his Spartans more than prepared for the 1-3-1 earlier this year in Evanston. Choosing a defense will be a tough, but very critical decision for NU coach Bill Carmody. The truth is Michigan State isn’t a great three point shooting team. Kalin Lucas makes 38.6%, Chris Allen makes 38.4%, and Korie Lucious makes 34.8%, but none of the other Spartans are great shooters. In fact, Durrell Summers is the only other Spartan who even considers trying threes, but he makes just 25%. Given those numbers, it might make sense to try the 1-3-1 as it looks as if NU won’t get beat from the outside. The 1-3-1 might also help deny the ball inside to Draymond Green (10.4ppg and 58.3% FG) and Raymar Morgan (11.7ppg and 58% FG). Green is closer to a classic post player who wants to catch with his back turned while Morgan can take a lesser athlete off the dribble. Either way, NU’s front court would be best served in keeping the ball away from those guys. To do so, John Shruna and Luka Mirkovic will need to hit the defensive glass. MSU has 290 offensive rebounds already this season.
Michigan State’s other great skill is how fast they push the ball. If you miss a shot you must get back on defense, if you turn the ball over you must get back on defense, and if you make a basket you don’t have time to feel happy because you need to get back on defense. MSU took advantage of some NU laziness in January and got some easy baskets. For Northwestern to win they can’t allow those easy baskets and they must get some easy baskets of their own thanks to turnovers and the open threes the Princeton Offense will produce.
Prediction:
I think Northwestern is a better team now than they were in January. I would be shocked if this game is decided by more than 12 points, but I also don’t think NU can duplicate their feat from last season. Michigan State, 71 Northwestern, 60
Thursday, January 28, 2010
An Expert’s Analysis of NU’s Tournament Chances
Last year when I was breaking down Northwestern’s chances to make the NCAA Tournament I got most of my stats from http://www.baselinestats.com/. The site has a wealth of knowledge and it is very easy to navigate between the excellent analysis and the detailed statistics. One of the site’s writers and founders is 2004 Northwestern graduate Brendon Desrochers. Brendon graciously agreed to answer a few questions and share his statistical breakdown of NU’s tournament chances with us today. He also took the time to share some fun memories of his time watching hoops as an NU student. Here’s what he had to say…
WRR: Obviously the loss to Minnesota hurt Northwestern’s NCAA Tournament chances, but just how badly did it hurt?
BD: Unscientifically, I put Northwestern's chances to make the NCAA Tournament at about 40 percent entering the Minnesota game, and I've dropped that to 35 percent although that might be a bit generous. I don't think this one loss was particularly damaging -- perhaps less damaging than the Wisconsin loss was -- but it just leaves little margin for error. Barring an unlikely win at Wisconsin or Michigan State, Northwestern will have to win seven of the nine other games (plus Chicago State) merely to stay in the mix.
Since I started looking at Northwestern closely, I've said that the magic number was 24. Twenty-four wins will get Northwestern in, and 23 will put the Cats at just about even money, maybe 40/60 to go. It sounds like a lot of wins out of a Big Ten team just to get in, but with eight conference games this season against teams unlikely to finish in the top 100 of the RPI, NU has little margin for error.
In terms of my model -- I call it the BTI (Baseline Tournament Index) -- there are still about a dozen teams between Northwestern and the at-large cutline. That's a lot of teams, and the only way to pass those teams -- especially with scarce opportunities at eye-popping wins -- is by winning a lot of games.
If you extrapolate the projections for this site(http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Northwestern.html), you get about a 20 percent chance of Northwestern reaching the threshold it would need to get in. I do think the Sagarin ratings he's using to do his projections sells Northwestern a smidge short, though.
WRR: Is there a magic number of wins which will put Northwestern into the Big Dance? I know in the past people talked about 20 wins, but that was back when the NCAA only allowed teams to play 27 regular season games. Now teams play 31 games plus a conference tournament, so I assume the number has changed.
BD: I realize that I probably answered this question above. To be clear, a 10-8 conference record plus a win over Chicago State and a win in Northwestern's first Big Ten Tournament game will put NU right at the bubble heading into Selection Sunday. Whether the Cats are in or out at that point will depend on how things break in conference tournaments and with other bubble teams. A 24th win would be a clincher, but that means no slip-ups in the games against Penn State, Indiana and Iowa, plus the home games against Minnesota and Michigan. Win those eight to finish 11-7 and win another in the Big Ten Tournament, and it's hard to imagine Northwestern being left out.
WRR: What games on the remaining schedule would you consider “must-win” games for Northwestern?
BD: This is tricky, because any loss to the bad teams in the conference will kill the RPI, but any home loss will also really damage the RPI, and a loss to Minnesota would mean a sweep and make it hard for NU to get in ahead of the Gophers. And then, of course, there is Chicago State. That makes nine must wins -- I'd say Northwestern will need to go 8-1 against those teams or take one of the two tough roadies as a replacement for an extra loss. A slip-up at Iowa, Penn State or (especially) Indiana is my biggest fear as a Wildcats fan. (Editor’s note: Penn State really scares me. They might be the best 0-8 team in Big Ten history)
WRR: Are there any teams Northwestern fans should actively be rooting against because they’ll be teams Northwestern ends up competing with for a bid?
BD: I would root against Illinois. Five bids seem the most likely figure for the Big Ten, and so finishing ahead of Illinois in conference should give Northwestern an edge. And, considering the non-conference play of the Illini, just finishing tied with Illinois in conference should give NU the edge.
In other conferences, it's always hard to say which teams will be at the cutline in March, but some that come to mind are Florida, Dayton, Seton Hall and Cincinnati. Basically, root for the chalk and dreck in the major leagues at the expense of the middle teams.
WRR: Bottom line, what do you see as the end result of this season for NU. NIT? NCAA? CBI?
BD: To not get invited to the NIT at this point would require a near disaster, and in the NIT is where I'd expect the Cats to end up. I think there will be a slip-up against one of the bottom teams on the road -- the two consecutive weekend trips to State College and Bloomington make me cringe -- and that will be enough to derail the dream, barring a deep Big Ten Tourney run.
It's a real shame, because Northwestern really hasn't done anything wrong this season. It's the other Big Ten teams, especially the bottom three plus Illinois, Michigan and, yes, even Michigan State, whose non-conference play has set the bar so high for the Cats.
I do already have plans to attend should Northwestern make it. I'm hoping that, if the Cats do, they'll go to Providence, where I have family, and not to the very-hard-to-get-to Spokane. Either way, I won't complain.
WRR: As an NU graduate, what do think about the current state of the NU hoops compared to your time on campus?
BD: Well, I'll be honest -- I've never much liked watching the Princeton offense, although I did think that Coach Carmody was a good hire because of the institutional fit and the slow pace that should help a perpetual underdog. He started at Northwestern the same year I did, and I think he's an awesome guy. There were times, though -- as recently as before last Big Ten season started -- when I thought there was little hope in Evanston.
When I was at school, Northwestern had three pretty decent years but never really sniffed the NCAAs, and even fell tantalizingly short of the NIT twice, because of poor starts out of conference. Jitim Young and Tavares Hardy brought some big wins to NU, and they were part of not-terrible teams (which is pretty good at Northwestern). I was ushering at Welsh-Ryan the last time Northwestern beat Illinois (prior to Saturday). My spot was right at the corner of the court, across the way from the Northwestern bench, and watching the crowd storm the court was one of my favorite moments at Northwestern. I remember that the Daily Northwestern had this great shot with fans rushing everywhere and Carmody's head popping out of the crowd and looking directly at the camera, despite there being no way he could have seen it.
So, there were moments, but just too far and few, and every Big Ten win felt like an upset (except for the ones against Purdue) -- and it seemed we were gimmicking our way to those upsets. Northwestern's performance last year, and even without Kevin Coble this year, has changed the feel around the program. Suddenly, Northwestern is expected to beat teams like Indiana, Penn State, Iowa. So, however, Northwestern handle's the pressure that comes with that change is less important than that the change has occurred. And that change came with better players. Craig Moore, Coble and Juice meant business as usual for Carmody and recruiting -- one good player per year, but things began to change with Hardy's arrival on the staff and the Shurna/Mirkovic class followed by this year's Crawford/Marcotullio class.
As good a coach as Carmody is, he needs players, and he simply hasn't had them until now. What Carmody can do with players who fit his system -- and even some like Crawford who can flourish when it breaks down -- is hopeful. There was no way an earlier Carmody team could have lost a player as critical as Coble and finished anywhere near .500 in conference. For instance, there was a lot of optimism entering what was to be the senior seasons of Hachad/Vukusic/Parker (2005-06), and then Parker left for Europe, and Northwestern struggled to 6-10. The fact that that hasn't happened this season is probably the biggest transformation since when I went to school.
The question is whether this class of juniors -- Thompson and now Coble -- can close the deal and reach the Big Dance, or whether it will fall on the underclassmen to bring it home. They'll become legends if they do, and there's reason to believe that it will happen by March 2011 with a few good bounces.
WRR: Thanks, Brendon. We’ll have to bring you back for another breakdown of NU’s chances closer to Selection Sunday if the ‘Cats close in on those 23 wins.
WRR: Obviously the loss to Minnesota hurt Northwestern’s NCAA Tournament chances, but just how badly did it hurt?
BD: Unscientifically, I put Northwestern's chances to make the NCAA Tournament at about 40 percent entering the Minnesota game, and I've dropped that to 35 percent although that might be a bit generous. I don't think this one loss was particularly damaging -- perhaps less damaging than the Wisconsin loss was -- but it just leaves little margin for error. Barring an unlikely win at Wisconsin or Michigan State, Northwestern will have to win seven of the nine other games (plus Chicago State) merely to stay in the mix.
Since I started looking at Northwestern closely, I've said that the magic number was 24. Twenty-four wins will get Northwestern in, and 23 will put the Cats at just about even money, maybe 40/60 to go. It sounds like a lot of wins out of a Big Ten team just to get in, but with eight conference games this season against teams unlikely to finish in the top 100 of the RPI, NU has little margin for error.
In terms of my model -- I call it the BTI (Baseline Tournament Index) -- there are still about a dozen teams between Northwestern and the at-large cutline. That's a lot of teams, and the only way to pass those teams -- especially with scarce opportunities at eye-popping wins -- is by winning a lot of games.
If you extrapolate the projections for this site(http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Northwestern.html), you get about a 20 percent chance of Northwestern reaching the threshold it would need to get in. I do think the Sagarin ratings he's using to do his projections sells Northwestern a smidge short, though.
WRR: Is there a magic number of wins which will put Northwestern into the Big Dance? I know in the past people talked about 20 wins, but that was back when the NCAA only allowed teams to play 27 regular season games. Now teams play 31 games plus a conference tournament, so I assume the number has changed.
BD: I realize that I probably answered this question above. To be clear, a 10-8 conference record plus a win over Chicago State and a win in Northwestern's first Big Ten Tournament game will put NU right at the bubble heading into Selection Sunday. Whether the Cats are in or out at that point will depend on how things break in conference tournaments and with other bubble teams. A 24th win would be a clincher, but that means no slip-ups in the games against Penn State, Indiana and Iowa, plus the home games against Minnesota and Michigan. Win those eight to finish 11-7 and win another in the Big Ten Tournament, and it's hard to imagine Northwestern being left out.
WRR: What games on the remaining schedule would you consider “must-win” games for Northwestern?
BD: This is tricky, because any loss to the bad teams in the conference will kill the RPI, but any home loss will also really damage the RPI, and a loss to Minnesota would mean a sweep and make it hard for NU to get in ahead of the Gophers. And then, of course, there is Chicago State. That makes nine must wins -- I'd say Northwestern will need to go 8-1 against those teams or take one of the two tough roadies as a replacement for an extra loss. A slip-up at Iowa, Penn State or (especially) Indiana is my biggest fear as a Wildcats fan. (Editor’s note: Penn State really scares me. They might be the best 0-8 team in Big Ten history)
WRR: Are there any teams Northwestern fans should actively be rooting against because they’ll be teams Northwestern ends up competing with for a bid?
BD: I would root against Illinois. Five bids seem the most likely figure for the Big Ten, and so finishing ahead of Illinois in conference should give Northwestern an edge. And, considering the non-conference play of the Illini, just finishing tied with Illinois in conference should give NU the edge.
In other conferences, it's always hard to say which teams will be at the cutline in March, but some that come to mind are Florida, Dayton, Seton Hall and Cincinnati. Basically, root for the chalk and dreck in the major leagues at the expense of the middle teams.
WRR: Bottom line, what do you see as the end result of this season for NU. NIT? NCAA? CBI?
BD: To not get invited to the NIT at this point would require a near disaster, and in the NIT is where I'd expect the Cats to end up. I think there will be a slip-up against one of the bottom teams on the road -- the two consecutive weekend trips to State College and Bloomington make me cringe -- and that will be enough to derail the dream, barring a deep Big Ten Tourney run.
It's a real shame, because Northwestern really hasn't done anything wrong this season. It's the other Big Ten teams, especially the bottom three plus Illinois, Michigan and, yes, even Michigan State, whose non-conference play has set the bar so high for the Cats.
I do already have plans to attend should Northwestern make it. I'm hoping that, if the Cats do, they'll go to Providence, where I have family, and not to the very-hard-to-get-to Spokane. Either way, I won't complain.
WRR: As an NU graduate, what do think about the current state of the NU hoops compared to your time on campus?
BD: Well, I'll be honest -- I've never much liked watching the Princeton offense, although I did think that Coach Carmody was a good hire because of the institutional fit and the slow pace that should help a perpetual underdog. He started at Northwestern the same year I did, and I think he's an awesome guy. There were times, though -- as recently as before last Big Ten season started -- when I thought there was little hope in Evanston.
When I was at school, Northwestern had three pretty decent years but never really sniffed the NCAAs, and even fell tantalizingly short of the NIT twice, because of poor starts out of conference. Jitim Young and Tavares Hardy brought some big wins to NU, and they were part of not-terrible teams (which is pretty good at Northwestern). I was ushering at Welsh-Ryan the last time Northwestern beat Illinois (prior to Saturday). My spot was right at the corner of the court, across the way from the Northwestern bench, and watching the crowd storm the court was one of my favorite moments at Northwestern. I remember that the Daily Northwestern had this great shot with fans rushing everywhere and Carmody's head popping out of the crowd and looking directly at the camera, despite there being no way he could have seen it.
So, there were moments, but just too far and few, and every Big Ten win felt like an upset (except for the ones against Purdue) -- and it seemed we were gimmicking our way to those upsets. Northwestern's performance last year, and even without Kevin Coble this year, has changed the feel around the program. Suddenly, Northwestern is expected to beat teams like Indiana, Penn State, Iowa. So, however, Northwestern handle's the pressure that comes with that change is less important than that the change has occurred. And that change came with better players. Craig Moore, Coble and Juice meant business as usual for Carmody and recruiting -- one good player per year, but things began to change with Hardy's arrival on the staff and the Shurna/Mirkovic class followed by this year's Crawford/Marcotullio class.
As good a coach as Carmody is, he needs players, and he simply hasn't had them until now. What Carmody can do with players who fit his system -- and even some like Crawford who can flourish when it breaks down -- is hopeful. There was no way an earlier Carmody team could have lost a player as critical as Coble and finished anywhere near .500 in conference. For instance, there was a lot of optimism entering what was to be the senior seasons of Hachad/Vukusic/Parker (2005-06), and then Parker left for Europe, and Northwestern struggled to 6-10. The fact that that hasn't happened this season is probably the biggest transformation since when I went to school.
The question is whether this class of juniors -- Thompson and now Coble -- can close the deal and reach the Big Dance, or whether it will fall on the underclassmen to bring it home. They'll become legends if they do, and there's reason to believe that it will happen by March 2011 with a few good bounces.
WRR: Thanks, Brendon. We’ll have to bring you back for another breakdown of NU’s chances closer to Selection Sunday if the ‘Cats close in on those 23 wins.
Tuesday, January 26, 2010
One Play Away: Gophers, Hoffarber Make Just Enough Big Plays to Put ‘Cats Away Late 65-61
Northwestern deserves credit for a second half comeback from down 13 points (the move to risk playing the 1-3-1 really paid off) to take a lead in this contest, but Minnesota guard Blake Hoffarber deserves even more credit for essentially taking over the game in crunch time. Hoffarber scored two big threes and two big free throws, plus got the game’s key rebound to ensure the Gophers held off NU’s comeback attempt. For Minnesota this game will place them back in the running for the NCAA Tournament. On the other hand, this loss puts Northwestern in a Mission Impossible situation James Phelps and Ethan Hunt would find intimidating—the Wildcats now must win at either Michigan State or Wisconsin in order to have a legitimate case on Selection Sunday.
In a game like this any one play might have been the difference, but the truth was Minnesota’s 21-7 first half run, which started after NU missed a shot which would have put them up eight, was essentially the game changing moment. Minnesota upped their pressure and the Wildcats, most notably reserve guard Nick Fruendt, melted under the pressure like the Wicked Witch in rain storm. The worst moment had to be the play where it was clear Fruendt was terrified to throw the ball inbounds despite the fact that two players were standing so close he probably could have handed the rock to them. Instead, he gave the ball to Michael Thompson in the corner and Thompson proceeded to pass the ball out of bounds to Bill Carmody.
The other element of the Gopher pressure which hurt NU was the size factor. With Ralph Sampson III and Colton Iverson inside NU became essentially just a three point shooting team. The Wildcats made 12 threes in the game, but only 10 twos. Also, many of those twos were jump shots as the Wildcats basically couldn’t get near the rim. Luka Mirkovic had a good game on the glass with 13 rebounds, but was routinely swatted when attempting to convert at the hoop. I don’t understand why Mirkovic won’t throw in a head fake or something on occasion. It doesn’t need to be anything elaborate, but something to the defender out of balance sure would help. I also want to clearly convey the fact to NU’s players that when trying to finish in traffic against a bigger player a finger roll is not a good choice. When forced to go up in traffic please try to DUNK THE BASKETBALL! Even if you don’t convert, they won’t be able to swat you like they can a finger roll and you’ll probably get fouled.
Of those 12 threes, Thompson made five and John Shurna made four. Thompson’s five threes, though, were his only offense as he ended with 15 points. Shurna managed to score 19 points and get 7 rebounds. It was another solid performance, but I wish he would have pulled the trigger on a three instead of dribbling and taking a forced two with 15 seconds left and NU down three. I’m not really sure what that two would have even accomplished and doubt that was the end result the coaching staff envisioned for that play.
Some people will say Minnesota used their superior bench to win the game, but I didn’t really see NU tire at all. In fact, NU played much better in the second half. However, I do think NU’s lack of bench production is something of an issue. Right now, if every NU starter doesn’t play well, Bill Carmody has no other options. Tonight, NU’s bench contributed 3 points, 2 rebounds, and a whole lot of panic. As a result, even if Crawford and Nash weren’t playing their best games, Carmody had to leave them on the court.
The Wildcats now sit at 3-5 in the Big Ten with 10 games left. NU can probably go 6-4 in those 10 games to get to 9-9, but I’m a little disappointed because this reminds me a ton of last year’s game at Ohio State, and I honestly believe had NU held their late lead in that game the ‘Cats would have been in the Big Dance. I hope the same story doesn’t hold true with this contest.
In a game like this any one play might have been the difference, but the truth was Minnesota’s 21-7 first half run, which started after NU missed a shot which would have put them up eight, was essentially the game changing moment. Minnesota upped their pressure and the Wildcats, most notably reserve guard Nick Fruendt, melted under the pressure like the Wicked Witch in rain storm. The worst moment had to be the play where it was clear Fruendt was terrified to throw the ball inbounds despite the fact that two players were standing so close he probably could have handed the rock to them. Instead, he gave the ball to Michael Thompson in the corner and Thompson proceeded to pass the ball out of bounds to Bill Carmody.
The other element of the Gopher pressure which hurt NU was the size factor. With Ralph Sampson III and Colton Iverson inside NU became essentially just a three point shooting team. The Wildcats made 12 threes in the game, but only 10 twos. Also, many of those twos were jump shots as the Wildcats basically couldn’t get near the rim. Luka Mirkovic had a good game on the glass with 13 rebounds, but was routinely swatted when attempting to convert at the hoop. I don’t understand why Mirkovic won’t throw in a head fake or something on occasion. It doesn’t need to be anything elaborate, but something to the defender out of balance sure would help. I also want to clearly convey the fact to NU’s players that when trying to finish in traffic against a bigger player a finger roll is not a good choice. When forced to go up in traffic please try to DUNK THE BASKETBALL! Even if you don’t convert, they won’t be able to swat you like they can a finger roll and you’ll probably get fouled.
Of those 12 threes, Thompson made five and John Shurna made four. Thompson’s five threes, though, were his only offense as he ended with 15 points. Shurna managed to score 19 points and get 7 rebounds. It was another solid performance, but I wish he would have pulled the trigger on a three instead of dribbling and taking a forced two with 15 seconds left and NU down three. I’m not really sure what that two would have even accomplished and doubt that was the end result the coaching staff envisioned for that play.
Some people will say Minnesota used their superior bench to win the game, but I didn’t really see NU tire at all. In fact, NU played much better in the second half. However, I do think NU’s lack of bench production is something of an issue. Right now, if every NU starter doesn’t play well, Bill Carmody has no other options. Tonight, NU’s bench contributed 3 points, 2 rebounds, and a whole lot of panic. As a result, even if Crawford and Nash weren’t playing their best games, Carmody had to leave them on the court.
The Wildcats now sit at 3-5 in the Big Ten with 10 games left. NU can probably go 6-4 in those 10 games to get to 9-9, but I’m a little disappointed because this reminds me a ton of last year’s game at Ohio State, and I honestly believe had NU held their late lead in that game the ‘Cats would have been in the Big Dance. I hope the same story doesn’t hold true with this contest.
Monday, January 25, 2010
Game 20: Northwestern Wildcats @ Minnesota
The Matchup: Northwestern (14-5) @ Minnesota (12-7)
Location: Williams Arena (Minneapolis, MN)
TV: Big Ten Network (8:00 PM CT Tuesday January 26th)
Radio: WIND 560 AM
Fun Fact: Since taking over Minnesota, Tubby Smith has played Northwestern more than any other opponent thanks to two matchups in the Big Ten Tournament.
About the Game
We’re 19 games into the season and as long as Northwestern keeps winning, the magnitude of each game will continue to rise. In game 20 the Wildcats travel north to Minneapolis with a potential at-large NCAA-birth on the line. Right now, Northwestern is in slightly better shape than Minnesota for an NCAA bid. The Wildcats have a better RPI (#56 compared to #64) and have two more wins. Minnesota does have a stronger strength of schedule (#32 to #71). Those numbers will get pushed aside, though, starting at 8:00PM CT tomorrow. By the end of the night, one team will have a legitimate case over the other for an invitation to the big dance.
If Northwestern wants to get out of Minnesota with a victory they’ll have to counter some impressive Gopher athletes. The good news is that Minnesota is actually a very similar team to Illinois, who the ‘Cats just beat. Minnesota’s leading scorer is guard Lawrence Westbrook. Westbrook scores 13.3 ppg and along with fellow guard Blake Hoffarber is the reason I hope NU sticks to the switching man-to-man avoids playing the 1-3-1 zone. Westbrook makes 42.2% of this threes and Hoffarber is the best shooter in the Big Ten with a three point percentage of 49.5%. The good news for NU is that while many of the Gophers are very athletic, Hoffarber is more of a standstill shooter. If Northwestern can put Drew Crawford on Hoffarber in man-to-man, I believe Crawford can blanket the Gopher guard and keep his damage to a minimum.
The area where I’m more concerned about Minnesota doing damage is on defense. The Gophers are masterful at using their small, quick, and smart guards to cause turnovers and turn those turnovers into easy points. Westbrook, Devoe Joseph, and Justin Cobbs will go after Michael “Juice” Thompson and Jeremy Nash in the backcourt. It is critical that Thompson play his normal smart game and, unlike Illinois, stay out of foul trouble. While Nick Frudent and Alex Marcotullio were able to hold the fort against Illinois, I don’t want them to have to face the Gopher pressure.
Part of what makes Minnesota’s pressure so effective is that Tubby Smith rotates fresh players constantly. Athletic forward Damian Johnson (10.5 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 2.1 bpg) leads the Gophers in minutes per game with 25.4. That’s a far cry from Thompson leading NU with more than 38 minutes per game. The Wildcats use of their bench against Illinois might prove very useful in preparing for Minnesota. I expect fans will see more time from Kyle Rowley in order to rest Luka Mirkovic from having to face the constant rotation of not only Johnson and Ralph Sampson III inside, but also Gopher big men Paul Carter and Colton Iverson. Other Wildcats subs like Mike Capocci and Ivan Peljusic may be called on once again as well.
Prediction:
Some of have said this game could, like the Illinois contest from Saturday, be an NCAA elimination game. It is almost certainly that for Minnesota, but I’d like to think NU’s better record might allow them to survive even with a loss. Still, this might be NU’s best chance at big road win as winning in East Lansing or Madison will be tough. That might make this a must-win for NU as well. Perhaps the best news for Northwestern is that while the ‘Cats seem to be trending upwards, the Gophers are dealing with academic issues which have disqualified guard Al Nolen and the disappointment of two close losses in a row. The other good news is that NU has risen to the occasion every other time they faced a must-win. They beat Michigan on the road to help stabilize their season in a tough stretch, they beat Purdue for a signature win, and they bested Illinois in a contest selection committee members will look back on in March. I’m looking at those contests as evidence this year’s Wildcats are one of those teams who constantly succeeds when backed up against the wall. Northwestern, 66 Minnesota, 63
Location: Williams Arena (Minneapolis, MN)
TV: Big Ten Network (8:00 PM CT Tuesday January 26th)
Radio: WIND 560 AM
Fun Fact: Since taking over Minnesota, Tubby Smith has played Northwestern more than any other opponent thanks to two matchups in the Big Ten Tournament.
About the Game
We’re 19 games into the season and as long as Northwestern keeps winning, the magnitude of each game will continue to rise. In game 20 the Wildcats travel north to Minneapolis with a potential at-large NCAA-birth on the line. Right now, Northwestern is in slightly better shape than Minnesota for an NCAA bid. The Wildcats have a better RPI (#56 compared to #64) and have two more wins. Minnesota does have a stronger strength of schedule (#32 to #71). Those numbers will get pushed aside, though, starting at 8:00PM CT tomorrow. By the end of the night, one team will have a legitimate case over the other for an invitation to the big dance.
If Northwestern wants to get out of Minnesota with a victory they’ll have to counter some impressive Gopher athletes. The good news is that Minnesota is actually a very similar team to Illinois, who the ‘Cats just beat. Minnesota’s leading scorer is guard Lawrence Westbrook. Westbrook scores 13.3 ppg and along with fellow guard Blake Hoffarber is the reason I hope NU sticks to the switching man-to-man avoids playing the 1-3-1 zone. Westbrook makes 42.2% of this threes and Hoffarber is the best shooter in the Big Ten with a three point percentage of 49.5%. The good news for NU is that while many of the Gophers are very athletic, Hoffarber is more of a standstill shooter. If Northwestern can put Drew Crawford on Hoffarber in man-to-man, I believe Crawford can blanket the Gopher guard and keep his damage to a minimum.
The area where I’m more concerned about Minnesota doing damage is on defense. The Gophers are masterful at using their small, quick, and smart guards to cause turnovers and turn those turnovers into easy points. Westbrook, Devoe Joseph, and Justin Cobbs will go after Michael “Juice” Thompson and Jeremy Nash in the backcourt. It is critical that Thompson play his normal smart game and, unlike Illinois, stay out of foul trouble. While Nick Frudent and Alex Marcotullio were able to hold the fort against Illinois, I don’t want them to have to face the Gopher pressure.
Part of what makes Minnesota’s pressure so effective is that Tubby Smith rotates fresh players constantly. Athletic forward Damian Johnson (10.5 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 2.1 bpg) leads the Gophers in minutes per game with 25.4. That’s a far cry from Thompson leading NU with more than 38 minutes per game. The Wildcats use of their bench against Illinois might prove very useful in preparing for Minnesota. I expect fans will see more time from Kyle Rowley in order to rest Luka Mirkovic from having to face the constant rotation of not only Johnson and Ralph Sampson III inside, but also Gopher big men Paul Carter and Colton Iverson. Other Wildcats subs like Mike Capocci and Ivan Peljusic may be called on once again as well.
Prediction:
Some of have said this game could, like the Illinois contest from Saturday, be an NCAA elimination game. It is almost certainly that for Minnesota, but I’d like to think NU’s better record might allow them to survive even with a loss. Still, this might be NU’s best chance at big road win as winning in East Lansing or Madison will be tough. That might make this a must-win for NU as well. Perhaps the best news for Northwestern is that while the ‘Cats seem to be trending upwards, the Gophers are dealing with academic issues which have disqualified guard Al Nolen and the disappointment of two close losses in a row. The other good news is that NU has risen to the occasion every other time they faced a must-win. They beat Michigan on the road to help stabilize their season in a tough stretch, they beat Purdue for a signature win, and they bested Illinois in a contest selection committee members will look back on in March. I’m looking at those contests as evidence this year’s Wildcats are one of those teams who constantly succeeds when backed up against the wall. Northwestern, 66 Minnesota, 63
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