Wednesday, January 11, 2012

Well, that’s all folks.

Northwestern isn’t going to the NCAA Tournament, Bill Carmody very likely will not be retained as head coach because of his failure to qualify for that event (he should be fired just for sending the erratic Drew Crawford to the line to shoot tonight’s key technical instead of John Shurna, though, I kind of liked the small lineup). Honestly, Carmody makes odd choices at times, but he's been an okay coach. It's just probably time for someone else to get a shot. What upsets me the most is the next 14 games are going to be an agonizing death march. Good thing we’re wearing the funeral ready black uniforms on Saturday.

Northwestern hasn't played badly the last two games, but they haven't played well enough. Excuses exist such as the new rims vs Illinois and an obvious missed foul call on Drew Crawford's final drive in regulation, but excuses aren’t what good teams live by.

I don’t actually think God gives a crap about who wins athletic events and nobody is going to convince me he does no matter how many games Tim Tebow wins. Real suffering exists in the world and if God exists he better be focusing on trying to fix that and not making the Broncos get to the Super Bowl. That said, Northwestern must have really pissed some deity off.

The end.

Though sadly I have nothing better to do with me life so I'll still be writing here. Just don't expect happy things.

Tuesday, January 10, 2012

Northwestern Looks to Pickup Key Victory in Ann Arbor

Northwestern plays both of the Big Ten’s Michigan schools this week. The Wildcats travel to the University of Michigan on Wednesday night and host Michigan State on Saturday. With both teams ranked it is clear NU will be facing two tough tests, but essentially winning either game would be enough to place NU back into realistic discussion for the NCAA Tournament. Generally speaking road games are tougher, but it is possible that Northwestern matches up better with Michigan’s perimeter oriented style of play than Michigan State’s inside bruisers.

When one starts to talk about Michigan they have to begin with Tim Hardaway Jr. the talented sophomore forward. Hardaway scores 15.9ppg and has shown the ability to be explosive. In many ways he is similar to NU’s Drew Crawford. However, Hardaway is weaker three point shooter who makes less than 30% of his three point shots. Where Hardaway seems to have be able to outshine Crawford is he is a little bigger which helps him finish and he seems less impacted when things don’t go right. I’ve seen Hardaway hit big shots on nights when he’s struggled from the floor, but Crawford seems to need things to right early in order to have a big game.

Michigan’s next top scorer is freshman guard Trey Burke. Burke scores 13.8ppg and makes 36.2% of his threes. He’s also a very talented ball handler with about a 2-to-1 assist to turnover ratio. In addition, like Hardaway, he’s got an explosiveness to him when he takes the ball to the hoop. I’ve been really impressed with Burke to this point as I thought Michigan would struggle in the backcourt without Darius Morris. I’m hopeful NU’s unique 1-3-1 zone and extended pressure will cause trouble for the freshman, but his quickness may counter some of NU’s tricks.

Once you get past Hardaway and Burke, Michigan actually looks a lot like Northwestern, but the difference is while NU is an okay shooting team, Michigan is a great shooting team. Evan Smotrycz, Zack Novack, and Stu Douglass are all excellent shooters who could cause NU trouble. The good new is that none of three are going to get open on their own. As a result, if NU plays pressure defense they can probably force Burke and Hardaway to beat them. That might happen, but I’d rather give up twos than threes. Especially early on the road.

For Northwestern to win they need to play that great defense, rebound, but most importantly make shots. NU’s shooting was what cost them the Illinois game. I still think the new rims at Welsh-Ryan impacted that result, but I don’t want to worry too much about events which I don’t have control over. Still, it was a tough loss that really didn’t need to happen. If NU ends up one game short of the tournament, I’m not going to let that result go. For now, though, I’ll focus on the Michigan game. The problem is I don’t think NU can win it. I predict: Michigan, 77 Northwestern, 65

Saturday, January 7, 2012

Wildcat Centers Need to Take and Make Shots

Okay, I’m not ready to write off this season yet, but I think a change needs to be made if Northwestern wants to seriously compete for that elusive NCAA berth (which after the loss to Illinois looks once again like it’s slipping away). In that contest against Illinois the Illini defense forced the Wildcats to shoot outside jump shots which weren’t falling because they kept 7-1 Myers Leonard in the paint instead of brining him out on the perimeter to guard NU centers Luka Mirkovic and Davide Curletti when they had the ball 15 feet or farther from the basket. The reason Illinois was able to do this was because after one miss from each player it seemed they both decided (or were told) not to shoot anymore. The fact is that the best Princeton Offense teams had centers who could hit jump shots because it opened up more of the offense. Right now Northwestern doesn’t have that and as a result the backdoor cuts and drives to the hoop aren’t there.

In the past Luka and Davide have hit such shots. Davide has even made a few this season, however, Luka has really struggled shooting. Overall, though, neither has shot well recently. Given that, I can somewhat understand the reluctance to have them shoot, but I think they’re almost hurting the team more by not shooting than they would be missing. The shots Illinois was allowing Luka to take and that he was passing were wide open 15-foot shots. Instead, he’d give up the ball and NU would settle for a poor three point shot that would rim out of the new exceedingly unkind Welsh-Ryan rims. If Luka had taken and even made 33% of the shots Illinois allowed him NU probably would have won the game. Instead, he passed and the result was an Illini triumph.

If Luka and Davide aren’t going to take such shots my proposal is that NU switch to the small lineup they used briefly vs Illinois. Playing John Shurna at center might create issues on defense at times, but probably not against every Big Ten team as there are some undersized teams in the league. Plus, I’m not saying Shurna play 40 minutes at center. I’m saying get him 8-10 minutes there to help open up driving lanes and backdoor cuts. Plus, moving him to center might get him some more easy shots because it’ll create mismatches with larger defenders. Bottom line, NU needs a center that can shoot and the 6-9 Shurna is an undersized, but reasonable option for a team that needs a spark.

Let me shift gears slightly here. I was pretty upset at the loss to Illinois. I’m pretty upset after every loss now that we have expectations for Northwestern hoops. I think you could all probably tell that from reading my unedited frustration on Wednesday night. However, I can’t give up on this team (even if I may want to at times). They’re my team. I’m a Northwestern fan. I have been since I was 10 years old. I don’t cheer for an NFL team or an NBA team or really care that much about the White Sox or Cubs. It’s my dream to see Northwestern in the NCAA Tournament and to paraphrase a line from this song by musician Will Hoge, I’m going to keep on believing in that dream no matter how many times it breaks my heart.

Wednesday, January 4, 2012

Cold Shooting Second Half Dooms Wildcats

First of all let’s start and the end. Drew Crawford was simply far too soft when taking the last shot. Tossing up a fadeaway lob isn’t going to work when a 7-1 shot blocker is in the middle of the court.

The game really was lost though when NU went through a 3-for-20 shooting stretch in the second half. Illinois played somewhat better defense than they did in the first half, but really I thought Northwestern just missed a lot of shots they were capable of making. At times a few of the shots might have been somewhat forced from Crawford or Shurna, but they were trying to make plays at a time when NU needed baskets. In hindsight maybe they shouldn’t have forced as many shots, but you can’t know it’s going end up a one point game when you’re trailing by five or seven in the middle of the contest.

On the positive side Northwestern played really good defense all night. They had a few lapses on ball pressure, but overall I was impressed. I actually might say it was one of the best defensive games I’ve seen from a Bill Carmody team at Northwestern. It’s a shame it all went for nothing tonight, but let’s not forget that NU can’t shoot as badly as they did this evening all year. If the defense stays intense the ‘Cats will pull a couple upsets this season.

Another negative was the end of the first half. Not so much the fact that Illinois closed on a 5-0 run, though, that seemed to get them some momentum. But the real issue I have is that NU on its last possession just looked lost yet Bill Carmody didn’t call his timeout that doesn’t carry over. NU had all five TOs left, they were going to lose one going to half two anyway, they were lost on offense, but Carmody simply let John Shurna turn the ball over. Again, Carmody couldn’t have known it would be a one point game, but why not use the timeout? You lose it anyway.

That doesn’t seem like much, but I’m not sure what else to say. Oh year, free throw shooting was awful and that’s another area where one point might have been made up, but alas was not. A solid first half, a terrible second half, some poor decisions at really bad times in both and the result is a tough loss. Obviously, you have these games at times and you can overcome them if you hand someone else a tough loss along the way. The problem is that Northwestern hasn’t really shown the ability to hand those tough losses out over their history, but they sure can sustain them.

I guess one thought which should also be mentioned, though, I hate the idea it can be used as an excuse is that new rims went into Welsh-Ryan yesterday that many reported were unkind to shooters. I do think we saw a lot of shots go in and rim out today and it looked like Bill Carmody had something say on that matter a few times and even after the game when talking with AD Jim Phillips (okay, I don't what Carmody was saying, but he seemed upset). This can't be an excuse, but doesn't it seem odd to anyone else to make such a change in the middle of the year? I'd love to hear thoughts on this.

I’m hoping we’ll see NU come back in a big way a week from tonight at Michigan. If not NU still has 14 games in the Big Ten after that so all isn’t totally lost. Still, you can’t help but feel like it is after tonight and I can’t help but think the frustration level for NU fans after a loss to Michigan will be sky high. That’s understandable because at a certain point the years upon years of tough losses result take a toll. I thought it was a good NU crowd tonight even with the Illini fans inside Welsh-Ryan. I expect a very green Welsh-Ryan when Michigan State arrives on Jan. 14 and I can’t blame people. At some point we all just need to say enough is enough. Personally, I’m getting very close to saying that myself.

Tuesday, January 3, 2012

Game vs Illinois Might Answer Some Questions For NU

I have no idea what to make of this Northwestern team and based on the various comments I’ve read from fans and the media neither does anyone else. Right now Northwestern is 11-3 through 14 games. They’ve played 10 teams they were almost certainly better than and won those 10 games. They’ve played two teams (Ohio State and Baylor) who they were almost certainly worse than and lost those games. And they’ve played two teams (Creighton and Seton Hall) who they were probably about even with and split those two games. Being able to consistently beat teams they are better than is a good step in the right direction for NU and losing to teams that are better is no shame, but the key to making the NCAA Tournament is going to be posting a better than .500 record against teams who NU matches up with evenly. The best way to that better than .500 mark is to win the contests at Welsh-Ryan and steal a couple on the road. In the end that would probably give NU 9 or 10 Big Ten wins and the result would be the NCAA Tournament.

The above paragraph becomes important because Illinois is one of those teams that NU is pretty even with. Sure, Illinois might have more flat out talent, but when the teams hit the court (especially in Evanston) the combination of a home court advantage and a more fine-tuned offensive system should even it out for NU. That means as Glenn said in the comment to the picture below, this really is a must-win game for NU!

The 12-3 Illini enter this contest coming off a road loss to Purdue and holding just a 3-3 record away from home. In other words, the Illini have been strong at Assembly Hall, but average away. NU holds that strong 46-3 record versus unranked opponents at home since 2008.
This is a pressure game for Illinois as well with them losing to Purdue and barely beating Minnesota at home. Their once promising could slip away if they drop this contest to the ‘Cats. It’s also a big game for Bruce Weber who despite his 205-89 career record is taking a lot of heat from Illinois fans for the team’s lack of postseason success and inability to compete for the league title in recent years. If Illinois is going to compete for anything this year they need to focus on getting 7-1 center Myers Leonard the ball. Leonard puts up 13.4ppg and 8.3rpg, but he shoots 61% from the floor. If he got the ball more he could average 20ppg with ease. The problem is it seems at times Illinois isn’t sure what type of team they are. Are they inside team with Leonard scoring in the post and Brandon Paul (12.3ppg) driving the lane or are they a jump shooting team with D.J. Richardson (40.6% 3PT) and Paul taking outside jump shots? What they should probably be is an inside-outside team that gets Leonard going early and then kicks to ball outside for open looks because aside from Richardson nobody on the Illini has much success shooting from the arc. The numbers look like this for the rest of Illinois’s projected starters:
Paul…28.4%
Leonard…25%
Sam Maniscalco…30.4%
Tyler Griffey…28.6%

To me that means NU should start in the 1-3-1 until Illinois proves they’re going to have an above average shooting game. The ‘Cats need to pressure the ball in that 1-3-1 and clog driving lanes, but a solid 1-3-1 that forces outside shots from people not named D.J. Richardson could be a recipe for success.


On offense I think we can probably assume Luka Mirkovic isn’t going to have a ton of success scoring on the block versus Leonard. That’s fine. Move Luka to the high post and let him distribute the ball to Shurna and Crawford who can attack the basket matched up on Griffey and Richardson respectively. If that works Illinois will have to sag into the lane and then the Wildcats can look again to Dave Sobolewski and Alex Marcotullio to boost the scoring from behind the arc.


Finally, I’ll say that the last key to this game for NU is intensity. That’s why Alex Marcotullio has to be a big factor. Without referees Big Ten basketball would basically be a street fight (it almost is anyway) and Alex is the only NU player who when you look at him has a facial expression that looks as if he just stepped off the set of Rocky V. If Alex can get the rest of the ‘Cats to have the same intensity on defense and the glass that he has I expect to see a Northwestern win. I predict: Northwestern, 70 Illinois, 65

Sunday, January 1, 2012

Wildcats Pickup First Win Over Penn State in Five Years

A solid second half which saw Northwestern shoot 71.4% and outscore Penn State by 15 was enough for NU to beat Penn State 68-56 for their first Big Ten win of the season. The win was the Wildcats first over Penn State in their last seven tries and moved the Wildcats record in their last 46-3 in their last 49 games against unranked opponents. The game didn’t start great as Penn State led 26-23 at the half and NU got outrebounded by 11 in the first half and looked sluggish. Thankfully, the ‘Cats rebounded in the second half thanks to some hot shooting and a stronger defensive effort keyed by Alex Marcotullio’s effort off the bench.

Aside from Marcotullio who I will talk about more a little later, I think Drew Crawford stood out above the rest of the Wildcats tonight. Drew played very strong defense on Tim Frazier helping hold the Penn State star to 16 points and forcing 4 turnovers. In addition, Crawford led the Wildcats in scoring 21 points and being assertive towards the hoop, but within the offense. The result was him taking just two threes, but making both and converting going towards the hoop on several occasions early in the second half. When Drew plays within the offense and plays with confidence he can be a special player.

I was also once again impressed with Dave Sobolewski. He played hard and early on seemed to be the only Wildcat who was focused on the game. For the day Sobolewski scored a career high 20 points and I was pleased he did so in a variety of ways. Yes, he was notable as a three point shooter, but he also found several routes towards the hoop to drive and score. Adding that skill to his game will make Sobo a better threat throughout the Big Ten season.

John Shurna was the third Wildcat in double figures with 17 points. It was a solid game. However, it was clear Penn State was very focused on stopping him. As a result, I’m starting to think Coach Carmody needs to go into his files and find some of his set plays which are geared towards getting one guy a shot. The Princeton Offense is great, but it is truly an offense which is set to get an open shot for whoever is open. At times you need to get your best player a shot and those special plays can make that happen when the defense is overly focused on him.

As promised earlier I want to talk about Alex Marcotullio. I thought it was notable that Northwestern played harder when Marcotullio was on the floor. His hustle on defense and his effort to fight for rebounding despite his small size seemed to motivate Luka Mirkovic and some of the bigger Wildcats to fight on the boards as well. I’m leaning towards starting Marcotullio if I’m Bill Carmody, but we’ll have to wait and see.

The major areas of concern for Northwestern continue to be free throw shooting and rebounding. Luka Mirkovic did grab 11 rebounds for NU, but Penn State still outrebounded the Wildcats by nine. Free throw shooting was simply bad with the center position going 2-for-9. I know Luka and Davide can play better and I hope we see that at the free throw line and all over on offense on Wednesday.